Hey PK -- What would you say you do here?

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

uncomfortable data for the haters of our d-corching

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-yards-per-play

2nd in the league as of tonight

[Atticus 3976]

41 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

uncomfortable data for the haters of our d-corching

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-yards-per-play

2nd in the league as of tonight

That's bc of Gary Patterson of course

[Codaxx 5765]

On 10/2/2022 at 9:51 PM, Brothahorn said:

Without a doubt it makes sense to credit Gary Patterson, famous for his 4-2, for the 3 DL looks. It certainly wouldnt be the guy that is a 3-4 disciple

[Burt Macklin 19038]

11 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

uncomfortable data for the haters of our d-corching

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-yards-per-play

2nd in the league as of tonight

We’ve played ULM, UTSA, WVU, and Tech. We’ve had a very easy schedule so far so unadjusted numbers will be inflated. Plus yards per play isn’t all that meaningful when you can’t get off the field on 3rd and 4th down because of your DC’s scheme choices. If our defensive 3rd and 4th down conversion rates regress to the mean, then our D will be much better, but I don’t think they will barring coaching decisions changing because it hasn’t been bad luck that teams keep converting. It’s playing 2 high and off coverage on 3rd and 4th downs, giving up easy conversions. 

[Eskimohorn 5635]

We’ve played ULM, UTSA, WVU, and Tech. We’ve had a very easy schedule so far so unadjusted numbers will be inflated. Plus yards per play isn’t all that meaningful when you can’t get off the field on 3rd and 4th down because of your DC’s scheme choices. If our defensive 3rd and 4th down conversion rates regress to the mean, then our D will be much better, but I don’t think they will barring coaching decisions changing because it hasn’t been bad luck that teams keep converting. It’s playing 2 high and off coverage on 3rd and 4th downs, giving up easy conversions. 

and Alabama

[Hpara759 1780]

On 10/2/2022 at 12:11 PM, jw4381 said:

I’d like to see, oh I don’t know, maybe our DBs turn and look for the ball once in a while…

 

[NoName 16354]

10 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

We’ve played ULM, UTSA, WVU, and Tech. We’ve had a very easy schedule so far so unadjusted numbers will be inflated. Plus yards per play isn’t all that meaningful when you can’t get off the field on 3rd and 4th down because of your DC’s scheme choices. If our defensive 3rd and 4th down conversion rates regress to the mean, then our D will be much better, but I don’t think they will barring coaching decisions changing because it hasn’t been bad luck that teams keep converting. It’s playing 2 high and off coverage on 3rd and 4th downs, giving up easy conversions. 

uh, FEI has Texas as having the #14 ELS schedule, #16 GLS and #18 ALS

the defense has been pretty good on points per drive, with the exception of somehow being #108 on long drives, but more than making it up on short (28) and medium (16) drives. overall #32 in DPD.

Quote

Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date (ALS).

via ksu_FAN here are the advanced stats charts - Per drive and drive rate stats for offense and defense not including garbage time for each team.

per play, average start, success rate, and havoc stats for offense and defense not including garbage time for each team.

All the per drive, per play, success rate, and havoc numbers, but sorted by differential between offense and defense to show the advantage gained for each team.

 

Stats are going to be somewhat skewed due to the incredible statistical game Texas had vs WVU

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401404087

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by NoName

[burdine 522]

Basically, the data shows that so far the defense has taken a solid step forward against reasonably good competition (no lower div schools, Bama, etc) from last year despite the super frustrating maddening loss to Tech.

I would also say we are seeing signs of actual development of players.  

Seniors like Coburn and Sweat are playing at a different level instead of looking like maxed out busts.

We aren't a dominant defense for sure.  We do seem to be a much improved one.

For a long time, we have said development of players on the roster has been our biggest issue.  Maybe this staff can get that fixed.

Too little data to know for sure but it's encouraging so far.

We did struggle with Tech's mobile QB and we have a couple of those still to come on the schedule (Duggan, Martinez) so I'd like to see how we handle those guys.

Also, I think it's even more encouraging to see real improvement on the defensive side of the team given Sark is an offensively minded head coach.

Edited October 4, 2022 by burdine

[Codaxx 5765]

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

We’ve played ULM, UTSA, WVU, and Tech. We’ve had a very easy schedule so far so unadjusted numbers will be inflated. Plus yards per play isn’t all that meaningful when you can’t get off the field on 3rd and 4th down because of your DC’s scheme choices. If our defensive 3rd and 4th down conversion rates regress to the mean, then our D will be much better, but I don’t think they will barring coaching decisions changing because it hasn’t been bad luck that teams keep converting. It’s playing 2 high and off coverage on 3rd and 4th downs, giving up easy conversions. 

FEI was Texas defense 22. SOS at #14. I think you are forgetting how bad early schedules are around the country. That said most stats are questionable until about week 7-8. If there is one I would lean towards it would be points per drive which has Texas at 32, which matches the eyes (solid, but certainly not a dominant defense)

Edited October 4, 2022 by Codaxx

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

FEI was Texas defense 22. SOS at #14. I think you are forgetting how bad early schedules are around the country. That said most stats are questionable until about week 7-8. If there is one I would lean towards it would be points per drive which has Texas at 32, which matches the eyes (solid, but certainly not a dominant defense)

I think that’s more than anyone could have reasonably hoped for given last year’s disastrous defensive performance. I think the angst is mostly that we’re situationally stupid given our players’ abilities and the penchant for most college offenses being able to complete short passes against air. It’s irksome. This defense becomes more fun if we really get the offense humming and then opposing offenses have to try to score often using a lot of short gains.

[jimmyjazz 45976]

2 hours ago, burdine said:

We aren't a dominant defense for sure.  We do seem to be a much improved one.

Which, given the relatively low amount of turnover from '21 to '22, is encouraging.  I hope nobody thought we'd be a top 20 defense.

[Atticus 3976]

The defense is clearly better this year.
We looked borderline great against Bama, but let’s see how they handle teams that do well with the quick passing game and have a mobile qb.

They actually looked good against Tech too, but they just failed over and over on 4th downs. They were generally in position, but just didn’t make the play. If they make those plays, it’s another dominant defensive performance. 

They fell apart down the stretch against Bama too, but I imagine we’ll have more than 19 points in every 4th quarter from now on. 

[Hookem2147 21339]

Defensive snap counts vs WVU

Interior DL- Sweat (30), Murphy (30), Coburn (28), Ojomo (23), Collins (23), Broughton (23)

Edge- Ovie (54), Sorrell (49), Dorbah (19), Finkley (15)

LB- Ford (64), Overshown (60), Tucker-Dorsey (21), Bush (10)

CB- Watts (71), Jamison (48), Johnson (29)

Nickel- Barron (45), Guilbeau (25)

Safety- Thompson (66), Cook (52), Crawford (22), Taaffe (8)

 

 

[Burt Macklin 19038]

4 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

and Alabama

Obviously, but the point was that 80% of the games we've played so far have been against average to be below average offenses, so using unadjusted YPP 5 games into the season isn't very meaningful. 

4 hours ago, NoName said:

uh, FEI has Texas as having the #14 ELS schedule, #16 GLS and #18 ALS

the defense has been pretty good on points per drive, with the exception of somehow being #108 on long drives, but more than making it up on short (28) and medium (16) drives. overall #32 in DPD.

via ksu_FAN here are the advanced stats charts - Per drive and drive rate stats for offense and defense not including garbage time for each team.

per play, average start, success rate, and havoc stats for offense and defense not including garbage time for each team.

All the per drive, per play, success rate, and havoc numbers, but sorted by differential between offense and defense to show the advantage gained for each team.

 

Stats are going to be somewhat skewed due to the incredible statistical game Texas had vs WVU

https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401404087

 

On the strength of schedule part, since we're only talking about defense, outside of Bama the best offense we've faced is 37th in the country and ULM is as bad at offense as Bama is good, so those two somewhat cancel each other out.  Most of the offenses we have left to face will be better than the ones we've seen (besides Bama). ISU is the only one I can think of off the top of my head that's worse. 

This is interesting data, but it's still a little early to rely on since most teams have only played two conference games so far.  The difference in YPP versus points per drive is pretty huge. I'd have to think it's a big outlier compared to most teams. Normally, I'd expect our 3rd and 4th down conversion rate on defense to come back towards the mean and say the YPP is more predictive, but with our specific DC's penchant for terrible play calling on critical 3rd and 4th downs, I'm skeptical that it will barring a coaching or coaching philosophy change. 

1 hour ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

I think that’s more than anyone could have reasonably hoped for given last year’s disastrous defensive performance. I think the angst is mostly that we’re situationally stupid given our players’ abilities and the penchant for most college offenses being able to complete short passes against air. It’s irksome. This defense becomes more fun if we really get the offense humming and then opposing offenses have to try to score often using a lot of short gains.

Basically this. It seems like a situational coaching deficiency, as opposed to bad luck on critical downs this season. We'll see. I'd be very happy to see us stop giving up these plays. 

[burdine 522]

I'm less focused on where we are now than I am on our trajectory. 

Last year felt terrible on defense and was a big step back.

This feels like an even bigger step forward and it does not feel gimmicky (orlando blitz pkg) or insane talent driven (joseph ossai, etc).

We need more data though to draw any real conclusions but I think it's encouraging.

If Sark can roll out a consistent top 10 offense and this level of defense or better, I think that might even make Surly smile a bit.

Edited October 4, 2022 by burdine

[jimmyjazz 45976]

1 hour ago, burdine said:

This feels like an even bigger step forward and it does not feel gimmicky (orlando blitz pkg) or insane talent driven (joseph ossai, etc).

I'm just encouraged to see a more consistent approach to tackling, along with more guys on the ball.

It feels like our guys are being taught more of the basics that they never seem to get taught.

[Texasrocks 2134]

2 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Defensive snap counts vs WVU

Interior DL- Sweat (30), Murphy (30), Coburn (28), Ojomo (23), Collins (23), Broughton (23)

Edge- Ovie (54), Sorrell (49), Dorbah (19), Finkley (15)

LB- Ford (64), Overshown (60), Tucker-Dorsey (21), Bush (10)

CB- Watts (71), Jamison (48), Johnson (29)

Nickel- Barron (45), Guilbeau (25)

Safety- Thompson (66), Cook (52), Crawford (22), Taaffe (8)

 

 

Bush actually looked pretty decent the few times I noticed him. DTD has been a disappointment so far.

[Hookem2147 21339]

9 minutes ago, Texasrocks said:

Bush actually looked pretty decent the few times I noticed him. DTD has been a disappointment so far.

He at least knows what he is doing most of the time. He's obviously limited physically but you don't see him out of position like you do Gbenda and other LB's. DTD has been okay in my eyes. Not anything special but not a complete liability.

[Atticus 3976]

1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

He at least knows what he is doing most of the time. He's obviously limited physically but you don't see him out of position like you do Gbenda and other LB's. DTD has been okay in my eyes. Not anything special but not a complete liability.

He’s way too tentative, then still hits the wrong hole at times. Mitchell was better

[Hookem2147 21339]

1 minute ago, Atticus said:

He’s way too tentative, then still hits the wrong hole at times. Mitchell was better

Juwan Mitchell??

I guess so, but that's not saying much. The bar for quality LB play isn't exactly super high over the last 5-8 years.

[D3zii 3707]

[ClubWhatever 12146]

So don’t  fire PK?

[Pam Cummings 9645]

I definitely just noticed that the blades on my pitchfork are dull. I'm putting it down, for now.

[Tex Long 4401]

1 hour ago, ClubWhatever said:

So don’t  fire PK?

Said no one, ever.

[D3zii 3707]

11 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Said no one, ever.

I’m saying it shit

[The Earl of Texas 3132]

It’s not about whether or not you’re 23rd after starting 3-2. It’s how we look through the course of a season and whether we improve or get worse every game (like last year), and finish at 23rd.

Im rooting for PK and no one was more pumped than I about our Bama performance, but TCU and Baylor and OU and Kansas and KState and Okie State will all be tougher matchups than WVU/ULaM/UTSA/Tech, and frankly we looked bad in two of those matchups against teams that we should look great against.

Giving up 20 in a half to Tech, who scored more points against us than any other opponent beside some FCS clown school they played can be a firable fail when you’re paid as much as PK and given the resources he is to follow up last year’s awful performance.

Edited October 5, 2022 by The Earl of Texas

[Hookem2147 21339]

55 minutes ago, The Earl of Texas said:

Im rooting for PK and no one was more pumped than I about our Bama performance, but TCU and Baylor and OU and Kansas and KState and Okie State will all be tougher matchups than WVU/ULaM/UTSA/Tech, and frankly we looked bad in two of those matchups against teams that we should look great against.

I’m assuming one of the two you are referencing is UTSA? The performances are what they are, but we gave up 20 points and UTSA has skill talent that could play at a lot of Big 12 schools. 

Obviously last year is not the standard but we have yet to show something remotely similar to the crap we put on the field in 2021. There has been growth and improvement at pretty much every level of the defense.

[Fondren & Main 6726]

WVU, Bama and UTSA were all held to their season lows.  Tech was the only real fucked performance and the offense shitting the bed in the second half didn’t help things.

[HtownHorn 14724]

18 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

WVU, Bama and UTSA were all held to their season lows.  Tech was the only real fucked performance and the offense shitting the bed in the second half didn’t help things.

Overshown missing the 1st half was huge against Tech. Our LB and S just aren't great, and the difference between Overshown and Dorsey and Gbenda is quite large.

[The Earl of Texas 3132]

3 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Overshown missing the 1st half was huge against Tech. Our LB and S just aren't great, and the difference between Overshown and Dorsey and Gbenda is quite large.

They scored more in the second half than the first.

25 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

WVU, Bama and UTSA were all held to their season lows.  Tech was the only real fucked performance and the offense shitting the bed in the second half didn’t help things.

A good point on the season lows, but again, we really SHOULD be doing that to UTSA. WVU was encouraging, for sure, but we’ve got at least 6 games left in conference play against teams that would appear at this point to stack up to be tougher than them.

Like I said, rooting for him bc that means we do well and also I like him in what little interviewing I’ve seen, but to this point no overwhelming reasons for optimism - after we shit the bed following Bama.

This week will be telling.

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

4 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

So don’t  fire PK?

Fuck that. I’d replace him with GP in a fucking heartbeat 

[jimmyjazz 45976]

I know it's anathema to suggest something like this, but our loss to 'bama could easily be argued the "best loss" of the season so far.  I'd say Mizzou is the only team with a reasonable counter-argument, pushing Georgia to the limit, and then Wake & NCSU against Clemson.

Whether our current defensive rankings hold is not for me to say, but it's not because we've had a cakewalk schedule.  We've actually played a tougher schedule than most P5 teams.  Sagarin has our schedule at #15, with 'bama at #67, UGA at #27, tOSU at #39, and Clemson at #74.  Is there a ton of fuzz in those rankings?  Sure, but it's something.  We're not the only team that will face a tougher run in conference, against foes that know us.  It's how it works, across the board.

[Tex Long 4401]

Consider that PK and his hire, Choate, are responsible for the fucking mess at In & Out Linebackers. Let Choate go to CO, and fire PK. More better D with whatever retread GP has available.

[Hookem2147 21339]

21 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Let Choate go to CO

Whew. Glad to know we can go ahead and let our co-DC take the head coaching job at Colorado. The Buffalo faithful appreciate our blessing.

[Tex Long 4401]

Did they decide on Chryst or Frost instead?

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

28 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Consider that PK and his hire, Choate, are responsible for the fucking mess at In & Out Linebackers. Let Choate go to CO, and fire PK. More better D with whatever retread GP has available.

When was the last time our linebacker play was good? When Muschamp was DC? I think the problem goes beyond the coaches there.

Edited October 5, 2022 by TheFlyingBoat

[Tex Long 4401]

7 minutes ago, TheFlyingBoat said:

When was the last time our linebacker play was good? When Muschamp was DC? I think the problem goes beyond the coaches there.

Sounds like someone's got some LB stats cued up.

1 minute ago, Tex Long said:

Sounds like someone's got some LB stats cued up.

Or queued up, if you prefer.

 

Thanks to the software for merging messages. Let's see if it'll do that again

Edited October 5, 2022 by Tex Long

[TheFlyingBoat 906]

1 hour ago, The Earl of Texas said:

They scored more in the second half than the first.

A good point on the season lows, but again, we really SHOULD be doing that to UTSA. WVU was encouraging, for sure, but we’ve got at least 6 games left in conference play against teams that would appear at this point to stack up to be tougher than them.

Like I said, rooting for him bc that means we do well and also I like him in what little interviewing I’ve seen, but to this point no overwhelming reasons for optimism - after we shit the bed following Bama.

This week will be telling.

Yes they score more in the second than the first, but that ignores context. We gave them the ball on our own 30 for one drive. That drive alone is the difference in points. Couple that by going for it on 4th more frequently, which is EV positive in every situation they went for it in the second half, and you have good reason to expect increases in scoring even with better defense..

[Majorcholas 508]

3 hours ago, The Earl of Texas said:

It’s not about whether or not you’re 23rd after starting 3-2. It’s how we look through the course of a season and whether we improve or get worse every game (like last year), and finish at 23rd.

Im rooting for PK and no one was more pumped than I about our Bama performance, but TCU and Baylor and OU and Kansas and KState and Okie State will all be tougher matchups than WVU/ULaM/UTSA/Tech, and frankly we looked bad in two of those matchups against teams that we should look great against.

Giving up 20 in a half to Tech, who scored more points against us than any other opponent beside some FCS clown school they played can be a firable fail when you’re paid as much as PK and given the resources he is to follow up last year’s awful performance.

Offense going three and out a 100 times and the defense is out there for 87000 plays in the second half doesn’t help.  No exaggeration 

[Dnaguy 12002]

5 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Fuck that. I’d replace him with GP in a fucking heartbeat 

[LTtxfan 49253]

Curious... what will be the strategies for blOUs offense vs Horns defense ??

Here are a few possibilities...

• blOU will attempt to take advantage of our LBs in pass coverage
• blOU will try to wear down Horns interior DL during 1st half by running a lot of wide plays (runs & passes) and using tempo
• Fatigue of the UT defense is part of the formula to beat Texas in 4th qtr
• Big key is will blOU offense be able to sustain long drives like utsa & tech did
• If healthy, Mims (WR) is a bad matchup for Jamison
• Trick plays will be used by blOU to take advantage of UT's overly aggressive LBs and DBs
• Get ahead or stay close and hope Texas self-destructs late
• As always, O-line will hold like MFrs, and turnovers will probably be big
• Penalties... Texas defense likes to do dumb shit like being offsides so try to take advantage of their lack of discipline

 

Oklahoma has good special teams, so kick and punt coverages may be important factors too.

Hope officiating doesn't screw things up for Texas like they did last year.

Thoughts???

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Wake & NCSU against Clemson.

Clemson is a shadow of itself with coaching brain drain as its staff is siphoned off, reduced talent and a dude with NFL measurables, an offensive number of vowels in his last name and middling ability as a college QB taking snaps. They’ll get a train run on them if they meet a legitimate top 10 opponent at some point this season.

[GreenspointTexas 9649]

Patterson is likely gone in 4 months. No clue why yall want him to replace PK at this point

[NoName 16354]

9 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Patterson is likely gone in 4 months. No clue why yall want him to replace PK at this point

is this based on inside info or just a total and complete guess without anything to back it up?

[bigcigar 1164]

PK getting out coached again. Good thing OU sucks

[TXRed 3285]

Wrong thread

Edited October 8, 2022 by TXRed

[The Earl of Texas 3132]

This OU team is bad and it’s being made worse by the OC’s clueless play calling, but all credit to PK and the D for making them look worse than they probably are, and doing what a good D should do - dominate bad Os.

[bigcigar 1164]

1 hour ago, bigcigar said:

PK getting out coached again. Good thing OU sucks

I was wrong. Was frustrated they were giving up yards to wildcat, but 2nd half they’ve completely shut it down

[bschoolprof 6263]

We look better, but it's hard to tell much against this putrid OU offense.  Wait until we go against a real juggernaut, like Kansas.  

[Js1 85413]

Good adjustments after getting gashed by it early