2022 House Elections

[bolverk 30344]

1 minute ago, bluto said:

‘Clock boy’ was her big moment

Oh yeah, the South Asian kid who was accused of bringing a bomb to school, but it all ended up being a science experiment.

[berlinerbaer 692]

Fivethirtyeight up with an informative piece on this map. Basically every representative is in a safer district except Vicente Gonzalez in TX-15, and he's retiring. That seat alone will determine whether Texas is 25-13 or 24-14.

Can't overlook the effect that uncompetitive House races will have up and down the ballot. This new map will really hurt turnout.

 

 

[Satchel 6982]

17 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Good. She’s a piece of shit.

Agreed. Glad to see her gone.

[Satchel 6982]

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/video/6043376-hispanic-leaders-say-theyve-been-left-out-from-redistricting-changes/

[Voldemort86 2259]

Hearing that oregons map is finalized. Can we get a breakdown of it?

[Mdhorn 6166]

On 9/27/2021 at 2:01 PM, bolverk said:

That Wasserman tweet up the page points out the map has no new Hispanic majority district, and he asks if a lawsuit might happen over it.

But, according to the Texas Tribune, it's even worse:

For reference, the new Census shows that Hispanics were responsible for 49.5% of all population growth over the last decade, Asians 15.3%, Blacks 13.9%, Mixed Race 14.2%, and Anglos 4.7%.

Sorry if already answered, but how do Hispanics associate?  If they see themselves as Republicans, then it's a win.  

Edited September 29, 2021 by Mdhorn

[Js1 87190]

9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hearing that oregons map is finalized. Can we get a breakdown of it?

Signed into law. 5-1 D. D+34, R+28, D+9, D+3, D+7

[berlinerbaer 692]

7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hearing that oregons map is finalized. Can we get a breakdown of it?

This dude runs a Youtube channel on electoral commentary and such. Here's his breakdown on Oregon and Texas.

Oregon analysis starts at 3:50. Texas at 7:43.

 

[bolverk 30344]

7 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

Sorry if already answered, but how do Hispanics associate?  If they see themselves as Republicans, then it's a win.  

From my understanding, historically Texas Hispanics generally favor Democrats in the 60-70 percent range.

[Biff Tannen 46170]

7 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

This dude runs a Youtube channel on electoral commentary and such. Here's his breakdown on Oregon and Texas.

Oregon analysis starts at 3:50. Texas at 7:43.

 

So basically they are concentrating D votes into specific districts instead of spreading them around. Dems will have more solid seats, but less potential to take over R districts than they have now. It’s not the greatest play for Rs, but it’s the best they’ve got and from a purely strategic standpoint, it’s not a bad move. I hope it backfires spectacularly somehow, but they are rigging the board in the best way possible for their situation. 

[Js1 87190]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So basically they are concentrating D votes into specific districts instead of spreading them around. Dems will have more solid seats, but less potential to take over R districts than they have now. It’s not the greatest play for Rs, but it’s the best they’ve got and from a purely strategic standpoint, it’s not a bad move. I hope it backfires spectacularly somehow, but they are rigging the board in the best way possible for their situation. 

It’s a defensive gerrymander where they were already so gerrymandered in their favor from 2010, all they could do was shore up R incumbents by shoring up D incumbents, stealing an RGV district away but then handing Dems a new solid district in Austin. 

[Mdhorn 6166]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s a defensive gerrymander where they were already so gerrymandered in their favor from 2010, all they could do was shore up R incumbents by shoring up D incumbents, stealing an RGV district away but then handing Dems a new solid district in Austin. 

The only way to beat this is a tide of voters registering and turning out.  That's it.  Register voters, and make sure that there is a means to get to a viable polling place, and suing if not.    That's the work that needs to be done in every district, including all the ones that are demonstrably Democrat.  Repeat state wide because Democracy can't wait another term.  There's more Democrats in Texas than Republicans, no matter how they draw the districts, but they gotta show up.  

[Js1 87190]

Also these districts were drawn under several 2020 assumptions that may or may not continue through 2030:

Upballot irregular Trump voters turn out to vote downballot when Trump isn’t on the ballot

Suburban/highly educated voters continue to vote Dem

Hispanics continue to swing R

 

All the maps drawn are under these assumptions 

[DigglerontheHoof 21555]

6 hours ago, bolverk said:

From my understanding, historically Texas Hispanics generally favor Democrats in the 60-70 percent range.

I thought Hispanics went R in much greater numbers in 2020...at least for POTUS.

[Post Oak 20570]

....

Edited September 29, 2021 by Post Oak

[Js1 87190]

It went back and forth last night as the CO Commission was voting on maps.  They settled on what is a 5-3 D (+1 D) map but could be 4-4 in a red wave. 

3 safe D

2 safe R

1 likely D

1 lean D

 

Unfortunately it ends up with QBert being drawn into a safer R seat. SCOCO has to approve the final map but the only thing that may lead to a rejection is the commission split majority Hispanic areas into multiple districts.  Noticing a trend here. 

[Js1 87190]

And for @Voldemort86, I will try to keep a running tab on what we have going on so far.

Voted upon and done

• All single member states have no redistricting - WY, ND, SD, DE, VT, AK (4 R, 2 D)
• Oregon - 5-1 D (+1 D)

Proposed maps that will lead to change in delegation (not including Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Maine as they are expected to be status quo)

• Colorado - 5-1 D is the final proposal going for approval (+1 D)
• Michigan - huge fucking mess, four proposals: 8-4-1 in favor of Republicans; 7-4-2 in favor of Republicans; 6-4-3 in favor of Republicans) - this might be the messiest redistricting of them all (currently 7-7) 
• New York - two independent commission maps came out (17-6-3 and 15-8-3) but highly likely New York Assembly will reject both and impose a 23-3 D map (-5 R, +4 D)
• Texas - first proposal is 24-13-1 in favor of Republicans (+1 or +2 R)
• Georgia - first proposal was 9-4-1 R (-1 D)
• Iowa - first proposed map is 2-1-1 R (anywhere from no change to +1 D, -1 R)
• Maryland - R governor Hogan's proposed map was 6-2 D but Dems will likely just overrule his bullshit commission and go 8-0 D (-1 R, +1 D)
• Nebraska - compromise map is 3-0-1 - NE-02 is highly competitive (no change, but could get to +1 D, -1 R depending on how NE-02 votes)
• Washington - 4 maps were released which are: 7-3 D, 5-4-1 D, 7-3 D and 5-3-2 D but obviously those 5-4-1 and 5-3-2 maps come from the Republican side of the commission (current map is 7-3 D, so I'd expect it to end up the same)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And for @Voldemort86, I will try to keep a running tab on what we have going on so far.

Voted upon and done

• All single member states have no redistricting - WY, ND, SD, DE, VT, AK (4 R, 2 D)
• Oregon - 5-1 D (+1 D)

Proposed maps that will lead to change in delegation (not including Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Maine as they are expected to be status quo)

• Colorado - 5-1 D is the final proposal going for approval (+1 D)
• Michigan - huge fucking mess, four proposals: 8-4-1 in favor of Republicans; 7-4-2 in favor of Republicans; 6-4-3 in favor of Republicans) - this might be the messiest redistricting of them all (currently 7-7) 
• New York - two independent commission maps came out (17-6-3 and 15-8-3) but highly likely New York Assembly will reject both and impose a 23-3 D map (-5 R, +4 D)
• Texas - first proposal is 24-13-1 in favor of Republicans (+1 or +2 R)
• Georgia - first proposal was 9-4-1 R (-1 D)
• Iowa - first proposed map is 2-1-1 R (anywhere from no change to +1 D, -1 R)
• Maryland - R governor Hogan's proposed map was 6-2 D but Dems will likely just overrule his bullshit commission and go 8-0 D (-1 R, +1 D)
• Nebraska - compromise map is 3-0-1 - NE-02 is highly competitive (no change, but could get to +1 D, -1 R depending on how NE-02 votes)
• Washington - 4 maps were released which are: 7-3 D, 5-4-1 D, 7-3 D and 5-3-2 D but obviously those 5-4-1 and 5-3-2 maps come from the Republican side of the commission (current map is 7-3 D, so I'd expect it to end up the same)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/

this post is a good post and you should feel good about this good post

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

And for @Voldemort86, I will try to keep a running tab on what we have going on so far.

Voted upon and done

• All single member states have no redistricting - WY, ND, SD, DE, VT, AK (4 R, 2 D)
• Oregon - 5-1 D (+1 D)

Proposed maps that will lead to change in delegation (not including Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Maine as they are expected to be status quo)

• Colorado - 5-1 D is the final proposal going for approval (+1 D)
• Michigan - huge fucking mess, four proposals: 8-4-1 in favor of Republicans; 7-4-2 in favor of Republicans; 6-4-3 in favor of Republicans) - this might be the messiest redistricting of them all (currently 7-7) 
• New York - two independent commission maps came out (17-6-3 and 15-8-3) but highly likely New York Assembly will reject both and impose a 23-3 D map (-5 R, +4 D)
• Texas - first proposal is 24-13-1 in favor of Republicans (+1 or +2 R)
• Georgia - first proposal was 9-4-1 R (-1 D)
• Iowa - first proposed map is 2-1-1 R (anywhere from no change to +1 D, -1 R)
• Maryland - R governor Hogan's proposed map was 6-2 D but Dems will likely just overrule his bullshit commission and go 8-0 D (-1 R, +1 D)
• Nebraska - compromise map is 3-0-1 - NE-02 is highly competitive (no change, but could get to +1 D, -1 R depending on how NE-02 votes)
• Washington - 4 maps were released which are: 7-3 D, 5-4-1 D, 7-3 D and 5-3-2 D but obviously those 5-4-1 and 5-3-2 maps come from the Republican side of the commission (current map is 7-3 D, so I'd expect it to end up the same)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/

thanks for doing this! 
 

I am worried about what North Carolina and Florida might do, but the Texas and Georgia maps aren’t bad so far. Michigan looks worrisome and I’m still crossing my fingers that Iowa and Ohio go better than we expect.

[Js1 87190]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

thanks for doing this! 
 

I am worried about what North Carolina and Florida might do, but the Texas and Georgia maps aren’t bad so far. Michigan looks worrisome and I’m still crossing my fingers that Iowa and Ohio go better than we expect.

We still don't know what Illinois and California are going to do, to offset NC and Florida.

NC has a Dem supreme court still.  Both Wisconsin and Ohio have bare minimum R supreme courts (4-3) and both feature 1 R judge who is seemingly not sympathetic to blatant gerrymandering (Hagedorn in Wisconsin and Chief Justice O'Connor in Ohio, who is also at mandatory retirement age in 2022 so she probably gives no fucks anymore about backlash at the polls)

[Js1 87190]

Maine's maps have been signed, so 2 states down.  As mentioned, Maine's maps split the 2 districts as:

• ME-01 remains super fucking blue
• ME-02 becomes slightly bluer, but is still a Trump district that has a Democrat sitting in it (Trump +6) but has been won by Jared Golden in 2018 (50.6 - 49.4 with RVC) and he won by a bigger margin in 2020 (53-47 without needing RCV)

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Maine's maps have been signed, so 2 states down.  As mentioned, Maine's maps split the 2 districts as:

• ME-01 remains super fucking blue
• ME-02 becomes slightly bluer, but is still a Trump district that has a Democrat sitting in it (Trump +6) but has been won by Jared Golden in 2018 (50.6 - 49.4 with RVC) and he won by a bigger margin in 2020 (53-47 without needing RCV)

I would’ve preferred Oregon to be as aggressive as possible and go for the solid 5-1 fuck you map, but I guess they had to give them a chance in one of the seats after the democrat house speaker re-negged on their deal or whatever. 
 

it’s only 2 states and maybe 7 or 8 if you count the one seat or at large states, but I’m satisfied with both maps overall so far.

[bolverk 30344]

Texas appears to be paying a secretive Republican political operative $120,000 annually to work behind the scenes on redistricting
Adam Foltz, now on the Texas payroll, played a key role in Wisconsin's redistricting last decade. A federal court threw out some of the maps and called the effort Foltz was involved in "an all but shameful attempt to hide the redistricting process from public scrutiny."

A Republican redistricting operative whose clandestine work helped drag Wisconsin into a legal morass last decade appears to now be on the payroll of the Texas Legislature as lawmakers work to redraw maps that will determine the distribution of political power for years to come.

The operative, Adam Foltz, was part of the team that helped craft Wisconsin’s legislative maps after Republicans took control of that state Legislature in 2010. Foltz played a key role in a tight-lipped and questionable redrawing process that shut out Democrats and drew the condemnation of federal judges who described it as “needlessly secret,” according to court records.

Foltz may now be playing a behind-the-scenes role in Texas. The Capitol’s internal staff directory, to which The Texas Tribune obtained access, shows Foltz is working for the House Redistricting Committee. His office and phone number in that directory match those of the committee’s staff office in the Capitol basement, but at least one Democrat on the committee said they had not been advised of his involvement. Foltz has not been a visible part of the committee's public-facing work.

Though Foltz is assigned to the House Redistricting Committee, state employment records show that Foltz is actually on the payroll of the Texas Legislative Council, a nonpartisan state agency that supports the Legislature in drafting and analyzing proposed legislation — and manages the internal mapping tool lawmakers use to redraw political maps. During the redistricting process, the council also plays a crucial role in providing demographic and election results for lawmakers’ proposed maps.

Records show Foltz was hired by the agency under the title of “legislative professional” on May 17 at a $120,000 annual salary. But Kimberley Shields, the council's assistant executive director, said in an email that Foltz reports to state Rep. Todd Hunter, the Corpus Christi Republican who chairs the redistricting committee.

"While Mr. Foltz is on the legislative council payroll, he is considered an employee of the House Redistricting Committee, and his hiring and duties are entirely within the purview of Chairman Hunter," Shields said in an email. "The council provides support on request to the house and senate in many situations, including occasionally covering the salary of a staff member. We don't have any other committee employees on our payroll."

Hunter did not respond to questions about Foltz’s involvement in the mapping process.

“The work of redistricting is never easy, but I am fully committed to a fair process and I look forward to working with my fellow members of this committee on the task at hand,” Hunter said in a February statement when he was first appointed to chair the committee by House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont.

A request for comment to the staff email assigned to Foltz also went unanswered. A spokesperson for Phelan declined to comment and referred questions to Hunter.

Texas lawmakers are currently in session in Austin to redraw the state’s legislative and congressional maps to reflect a decade’s worth of population growth. The census showed people of color were behind 95% of the state's growth since 2010 — about 4 million new residents — with Hispanic Texans responsible for half of that growth.

The redistricting process has always been complex and contentious in Texas, requiring repeated federal intervention to protect Hispanic and Black voters. In each of the last four redistricting cycles, either a federal court or the U.S. Department of Justice determined that Texas did not comply with federal protections for those voters. This year’s effort will mark the first time in decades that Texas lawmakers — Republicans are again in full control of the process — will be allowed to redraw maps without the federal supervision that prevented states with discriminatory track records from enacting new maps until they were reviewed to ensure they didn’t pull back on the voting rights of people of color.

Foltz’s involvement in Wisconsin’s 2011 redistricting was shrouded in controversy. He was hired as a staff member for the Speaker of the Assembly to help redraw the state’s maps following the 2010 census. Though he was an aide to the speaker, Foltz and another staffer worked out of a law firm that was also brought on to help with the process.

He held meetings there under what a federal court called a “cloak of secrecy” with every Republican member of the State Assembly — but no Democrats — who were each required to sign confidentiality agreements that bound them from discussing what was said. Despite Republican efforts to keep them secret, documents released during the litigation over the maps Foltz helped draw showed that he was also asked to help witnesses prepare their public testimony in support of them.

A federal court that considered the state’s maps eventually found violations of the Voting Rights Act in two assembly districts where map drawers improperly diluted the vote of Latinos. In that ruling, the court said the drafting of the maps was “needlessly secret, regrettably excluding input from the overwhelming majority of Wisconsin citizens.”

As the case dragged on over legal squabbles about emails Republicans had not initially turned over, the court criticized the secretive process in which Foltz was involved while he worked on the maps from the offices of the private law firm.

"Without a doubt, the Legislature made a conscious choice to involve private lawyers in what gives every appearance of an attempt — albeit poorly disguised — to cloak the private machinations of Wisconsin's Republican legislators in the shroud of attorney-client privilege,” the court said in a 2012 ruling. “What could have — indeed should have — been accomplished publicly instead took place in private, in an all but shameful attempt to hide the redistricting process from public scrutiny."

[Js1 87190]

The newest Michigan map is trending towards 7-6 D or 6-6-1.  They’re set to nuke Meijier out of his seat. It gets 19 points bluer. 

MI’s commission guidelines say they can’t favor one party or another. With the current 7-7 map, a 7-6 D or 6-6-1 is in line with that. 

[Js1 87190]

Well Ohio is a massive clusterfuck of regarded couch burners.

https://www.wkbn.com/news/ohio/ohio-lawmakers-set-to-miss-another-redistricting-deadline/

They are going to miss today's deadline for congressional maps.  The job will be punted to the Ohio Redistricting Committee, which drafted horrendous state legislative maps, passed with GOP votes only, that are already being challenged in court.  Maps passed with no minority support out of the ORC are only valid for 4 years, so Ohio will be, at a minimum, doing state-level mid-decade redistricting. 

The state map gave the GOP veto-proof supermajorities in a state they only get about 54% of the vote.  As I mentioned earlier, the SCOOH Chief Justice is not in favor of gerrymandering and she is the key to any decision to kill the maps (4-3 R, but she would be deciding vote, most likely). 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

30 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well Ohio is a massive clusterfuck of regarded couch burners.

https://www.wkbn.com/news/ohio/ohio-lawmakers-set-to-miss-another-redistricting-deadline/

They are going to miss today's deadline for congressional maps.  The job will be punted to the Ohio Redistricting Committee, which drafted horrendous state legislative maps, passed with GOP votes only, that are already being challenged in court.  Maps passed with no minority support out of the ORC are only valid for 4 years, so Ohio will be, at a minimum, doing state-level mid-decade redistricting. 

The state map gave the GOP veto-proof supermajorities in a state they only get about 54% of the vote.  As I mentioned earlier, the SCOOH Chief Justice is not in favor of gerrymandering and she is the key to any decision to kill the maps (4-3 R, but she would be deciding vote, most likely). 

Ohio is already fucked beyond belief. They have 16 seats right now and going down to 15. 12 republicans and 4 democrats, but republicans only win statewide races in that state by 5-8 points?
 

that’s why Ohio is interesting. I’m hoping the GOPs map will regress a little bit. It can’t get any worse.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Voldemort86

[Jive Turkey 13010]

 

[Js1 87190]

Jesus Christo at Dallas, Houston and Austin.

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/b8bb5e85-bb82-46f8-9ccc-2740ebe49809/resource/61a916b6-bb02-4ecc-b099-c91c015f8898/download/planh2101.pdf

What a little gerrymandering between friends and operatives and special interest groups

[Pescado_Rojo 19590]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Jesus Christo at Dallas, Houston and Austin.

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/b8bb5e85-bb82-46f8-9ccc-2740ebe49809/resource/61a916b6-bb02-4ecc-b099-c91c015f8898/download/planh2101.pdf

What a little gerrymandering between friends and operatives and special interest groups

So are they going to Pack the bluest parts of Wilco into 136, then crack the rest up into 20 and 52? Looks like they are going to try to make Talarico and Bucy fight over one district. 

[Js1 87190]

21 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So are they going to Pack the bluest parts of Wilco into 136, then crack the rest up into 20 and 52? Looks like they are going to try to make Talarico and Bucy fight over one district. 

Jimmy is a rising star.  They want him gone. 

Woops its 86 Trump, 64 Biden.  So 10 in each direction.  They dummymandered themselves in Collin though.  

Quote

Under the current map, 76 districts went to former President Donald Trump during the 2020 general election while 74 went to President Joe Biden. Among those, 50 districts voted 60% or more for Trump, 40 districts did for Biden and 60 districts did not have a candidate that received more than 60% of the vote. Using the proposed map, 86 districts would have gone for Trump, while 64 would have went for Biden. The number of districts that voted 60% or more for Trump or Biden would be tied at 46, and there would be 58 districts where a candidate did not receive more than 60% of the vote.

Looks like some member on member crimes includes:  Ortega (D) and Perez (D) in 77;  Jetton (R) and Stephenson (R) in 26; Biedermann (R) and Wilson (R) in 19

Most of the others include someone getting drawn into the district of someone else who has announced a vacancy: 

108 - Turner (D) drawn into Meyer (R) but Turner has announced he won't return

63 - Parker (R) drawn into Beckley (D) but neither are returning (Parker running for state Senate and Beckley running for Congress)

Edited September 30, 2021 by Js1

[Guest Lobo]

Wait, did Donna HOward just get drawn into Bolivian?  Her 48 is all outside of Austin now.  Or mostly anyway.  47, which overlaps a big chunk of her old one is now more tilting GOP.  46-51 are a largely changed.  Whoah.  

 

Thoughts? 

[Js1 87190]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Wait, did Donna HOward just get drawn into Bolivian?  Her 48 is all outside of Austin now.  Or mostly anyway.  47, which overlaps a big chunk of her old one is now more tilting GOP.  46-51 are a largely changed.  Whoah.  

 

Thoughts? 

Gonna be a lot of shuffling around, if this map holds.  Typically you get slack in the first map after redistricting if you run outside the district you live, because of map changes. 

[Guest Lobo]

No, I get the process.  I know there'll be modifications. But it's like they literally picked up 48 and moved it completely outside its former boundaries.  Then overlaid 47 into most of it.  Both with heavy R tilts.  And Howard and Hinojosa left holding the bag. 

Glad to see my buddy Eddie is gonna be left even better than before, though he does lose his little multi-million condo enclave around Rainey/Four Seasons.

[Js1 87190]

More Texas map info Patrick Svitek/Texas Tribune: 

• Zweiner (D) drawn out of her district, is now in red Comal County
• Guillen (D) goes from a Trump +13 to Trump + 25 district
• Talarico and Bucy are now safer (Talarico goes from Trump+6 to Biden +10 and Bucy from Biden+16 to Biden +26)
• King (D) goes from Biden +8 to Trump +4 (pattern: GOP is going to try to turn the RGV red)
• Morales Jr. (D) goes from Trump +8 to Biden +1
• Schofield (R) is shored up - Biden +2 to Trump +12
• Johnson (D) is also shored up - Biden +23 to Biden +26
• HD118 (vacant) goes Biden +14 to Biden +9 (run-off in a few weeks**)
• Leach, Meyer, Button, Allison, Hull all go from barely Biden districts to barely Trump districts in the +1/2 range (except Hull gets a Trump+5) 
• Cason (R) is now running for re-elect in a Biden +27 district

So there's a few flip opportunities for the Dems (Cason, Leach, Meyer, Button, Allison) and some flip opportunities for the GOP (Zweiner, Guillen, King, HD118) 

They are hedging HARD that they will become the party preferred by Hispanics in a cycle or two.  Dems have to get their heads out of their asses on that one.  Abbott said today they are going to make the Valley ruby red. 

Also those barely Trump districts for Leach, Meyer, Button and Allison are highly dependent on top-ballot Trump voters showing up in the midterms to vote for non-Trump candidates. 

 

**HD118 is a turnout-based district.  The last time it had an off-cycle special election (November 3, 2015 election and January 26, 2016 run-off), the GOP won it by about 170 votes out of 3600 votes.  Dems then flipped it in 2016 regular election with regular turnout by 5,000 votes out of 46,400.  They won it again in 2018 by 6700 votes out 41,000 and then again in 2020 by 10,000 votes out of 58,500.    There will be A LOT of freaking out if the GOP wins this seat in the run-off later this year, but I'd bet a lot of money Dems flip it back in 2022.   

Edited September 30, 2021 by Js1

[elfenix 34754]

On 9/28/2021 at 10:25 PM, Mdhorn said:

The only way to beat this is a tide of voters registering and turning out.

which is why you make registering voters and pushing turn out illegal, while legalizing threatening poll watchers to reduce turnout. 

[Jive Turkey 13010]

 

[atomheartbevo 90656]

Breitbart is....odd.  There are some True Believers there, some ideologues that were genuinely pissed that Trump cost them the House, the Senate, and the WH, and that were pissed over January 6.

And they are currently pushing stories about Trump followers wanting to secede, and I can't tell if they support that, or are just egging them on/trying to make the Trumpers look anti-American.

But I imagine there are some Republicans in Ohio that would like to see Gym out of politics, or at least out of Ohio politics.

[Js1 87190]

11 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Right, it’s the RINOs’ faults as always! 

[Guest Lobo]

If anybody follows Kasich on twitter or whatever, please post here if he gives any insight into Ohio's maps.  Jordan losing his seat would be fucking hilarious.  I mean, without a seat, where's he gonna hang his jacket for perpetuity?  

[cactusflinthead 27628]

They are hedging HARD that they will become the party preferred by Hispanics in a cycle or two.  Dems have to get their heads out of their asses on that one.  Abbott said today they are going to make the Valley ruby red. 

@Js1

I can't convince working class white voters they are voting against their own interests every time they vote R. It's the same conundrum at vaccines. Facts don't matter. They are voting on emotion and belief. 

[High Plains Drifter 11191]

23 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 stories about Trump followers wanting to secede,

 

Lets just give them Florida and let em go.

Then,

BUILD THAT WALL

[Js1 87190]

The Texas maps have advanced and should get a vote Friday.  It looks like they tweaked it slightly, but not enough to do anything.   24-13-1.  

The old map had 6 competitive districts, with the median seat D+2.3 and an efficiency gap of R+12.7.

New map: 1 competitive seat (TX-15) with a median seat of R+12.3 and an efficiency gap of R+15.3
 

Le sigh. 

[atomheartbevo 90656]

So is 28 competitive for her?

 

[Js1 87190]

If Cuellar wins the primary, she's not beating them.  They like Cuellar.  It's a D+9 district, moving to D+7 I believe, but Cuellar won it 58-39 and Biden won it 52-47.

If somehow Cisneros wins the primary, it's a toss-up.  But the GOP removed parts that Cisneros won in the primary, so I believe it's less friendly to her than her last primary run now. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21555]

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So is 28 competitive for her?

 

GOP needs to change its name to NBLB

Nothing But Loony Bitches

[Js1 87190]

Iowa committee unanimously passed the maps out of committee and to the full Senate.  No guarantee it'll pass, but all Dems are going to vote yes.

The maps were draw as 2R-1D-1T.  Miller-Meeks likely fucked (drawn into a D+7 district) and the lone Dem in the delegation, Axne, is now in an R+2 district.   This map looks like 2-2 or 3-1R so it would be a huge wins for Dems that they can gain 1 by flipping Miller-Meeks' seat or keep it status quo if they flip her seat and lose Axne's

 

Edit: Voted down 32-18.  Goes back for another redraw.  They are going to run up against the December 1 deadline. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by Js1

[Js1 87190]

4-4-1 as the starting point

 

[Js1 87190]

And the "favorite" map in NM knocks out the lone GOP rep in the state.

 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

And the "favorite" map in NM knocks out the lone GOP rep in the state.

 

 

I like this map. Better than I expected.

CD-3 pretty much stays the same. 
CD-1 goes from +22 to +14 democrat

CD-2 goes from +6 R to +8 D

in 2010, the GOP pulled no punches and was aggressive as possible in redistricting. It’s time for some of these blue states to catch up and axe all the republicans they can.

[Js1 87190]

Not much updates lately - 

• Michigan committee advanced out 4 maps - 2 of the maps are are 4D - 7R - 2T and 2 of the maps are more like 5-6-2.   Now open for public comment and committee will vote out a sole finalist on November 5. 
• Arizona is still tweaking their maps, but the new tweaks appear to be along the ones of 5D-4R (no change) but more in like a 3-3-3 type setup (Schweikert (R) and O'Halleran (D) districts flip sides, barely, and Lesko is in a marginal 47% Biden district)

Edited October 13, 2021 by Js1