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2022 House Elections

Pancho

By Pancho
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Js1

Js1 87187

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Is California going to fuck over Nunes? GOD I HOPE SO

 

CA-16 is Jim Costa (D), who won 59% of the vote in 2020
CA-21 is David Valadao (R), who won 56.7% in 2016, then lost by 862 votes in 2018 and won again in 2020 with 51% of the vote
CA-22 is Nunes (R), who won with 56% of the vote in 2020

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Js1
Js1

And for @Voldemort86, I will try to keep a running tab on what we have going on so far. Voted upon and done All single member states have no redistricting - WY, ND, SD, DE, VT, AK (4 R, 2 D

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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On 10/13/2021 at 10:15 AM, Js1 said:

Not much updates lately - 

  • Michigan committee advanced out 4 maps - 2 of the maps are are 4D - 7R - 2T and 2 of the maps are more like 5-6-2.   Now open for public comment and committee will vote out a sole finalist on November 5. 
  • Arizona is still tweaking their maps, but the new tweaks appear to be along the ones of 5D-4R (no change) but more in like a 3-3-3 type setup (Schweikert (R) and O'Halleran (D) districts flip sides, barely, and Lesko is in a marginal 47% Biden district)

Really wish we would just take the current map and make it 6-3

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19305

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On 10/14/2021 at 12:04 PM, Js1 said:

Is California going to fuck over Nunes? GOD I HOPE SO

 

CA-16 is Jim Costa (D), who won 59% of the vote in 2020
CA-21 is David Valadao (R), who won 56.7% in 2016, then lost by 862 votes in 2018 and won again in 2020 with 51% of the vote
CA-22 is Nunes (R), who won with 56% of the vote in 2020

So maybe get Nunes the fuck out?!?

the jesus win GIF

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Js1

Js1 87187

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Posted (edited)

Couple of moves:

  • Dem Mike Doyle (PA-18) is not running for re-election.  Seat is double digit Dem seat (pre-redistricting).   68 years old and the dean of the PA Congressional delegation.  
  • Dem David Price (NC-04) is not running for re-election.  Seat is also a double digit Dem seat (pre-redistricting).  81 years old (and basically the dean of the NC Congressional delegation - he's been in office since 1987, except for 1995-1997 so Richard Burr holds the honor, having been continuously elected since 1995) 
  • Dem John Yarmuth (KY-03) is also retiring.  73 years old.  This seat is likely not in danger (D+8), as Mitch McConnell doesn't want the Kentucky lege to do much but keep the status quo. 
  • Dem Lloyd Doggett (TX-35) is going to switch over to the new TX-37 (very very safe Dem), opening up a new majority-Hispanic Dem district.  Wendy could make a run in TX-37, as could state rep Gina Hinojosa.   Personally, my preference is Hinojosa since it's a majority Hispanic district and would be better to have a Hispanic Dem representing them. 
  • Draft Congressional map in Texas no longer pits SJL and Al Green in the same district.  Vincente Gonzalez was re-drawn into TX-34, where he was planning to run for retiring Filemon Vela Jr.'s seat, which makes TX-15 open. 
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Js1

Js1 87187

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On 10/14/2021 at 8:04 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Map pretty much offsets Texas.

Someone from Chicago floated a 15-2 map, but the 14-3 map can be done to make all 14 seats Biden+10 or more.  

This map doesn't do that (some single digit Biden seats) but they said on Friday the map is a first draft.  I'd expect the 14-3 map with all the Biden double digit districts to be the one that passes. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

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Posted (edited)

So with Doggett moving to TX-35, I think Wendy Davis is locked out of Congress for 2022.  She may just wait for Lloyd to retire (he's 75).  Julie Oliver teased a potential primary run in TX-35.

Greg Casar lists Wendy Davis, DA Jose Garza, Mayor Steve Adler and Austin City Council members Ann Kitchen, Vanessa Fuentes, Paige Ellis, Pio Renteria and Natasha Harper-Madison as endorsers for his exploratory bid for TX-37.   Trey Martinez Fishcher and Eddie Rodriguez are all also exploring bids in TX-37.  I think it's Casar's to lose. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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7 hours ago, Js1 said:

So with Doggett moving to TX-35, I think Wendy Davis is locked out of Congress for 2022.  She may just wait for Lloyd to retire (he's 75).  Julie Oliver teased a potential primary run in TX-35.

Greg Casar lists Wendy Davis, DA Jose Garza, Mayor Steve Adler and Austin City Council members Ann Kitchen, Vanessa Fuentes, Paige Ellis, Pio Renteria and Natasha Harper-Madison as endorsers for his exploratory bid for TX-37.   Trey Martinez Fishcher and Eddie Rodriguez are all also exploring bids in TX-37.  I think it's Casar's to lose. 

That’s a shame.  Eddie is twice the man Casar is. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Hearing about some bullshit in North Carolina where republicans are already coming out with 11 republicans - 3 democrat proposals for North Carolina.

I don’t think they can get away with it because the state is so close on a partisan level and the democrats still narrowly control the state Supreme Court.

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Js1

Js1 87187

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hearing about some bullshit in North Carolina where republicans are already coming out with 11 republicans - 3 democrat proposals for North Carolina.

I don’t think they can get away with it because the state is so close on a partisan level and the democrats still narrowly control the state Supreme Court.

They're trying to carve up a VRA district to make it happen.  Can't do that. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

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Iowa Senate actually approved the second set of maps drawn by the LSA.  The 538 partisan lean for the four districts are R+2, R+4, R+6 and R+27.  Trump and Ernst barely won the first 3 districts - the PVI for them are EVEN, R+1 and R+2. 

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Results tonight are disgusting.

 

all we can really do is do our best in redistricting and hope the virus goes away and the economy improves before people vote next year.

Nah the critical race discussion, buck banning etc  will be turned up to a 11 now, they found their calling to get the voters who they lost last election, you can see it with the suburbs going back to R because their kid may learn history. Dems gonna lose a lot more in a year 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)

I don’t blame Biden for it personally, but my situational awareness is better than your average person, but most voters are blaming the high gas prices, high grocery / food prices, and supply chain issues on president Biden. I think these problems would be just as bad or most likely even worse if president Trump was still in office and for some reason I doubt he would be blamed for the same shit. 

Edited by Voldemort86
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