2022 House Elections

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

On 4/14/2021 at 11:35 AM, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Somebody reassure me please that there is no chance the dems lose the House next year.

 

It's 50/50 at the moment due to redistricting and the giant Democrat fuck up in Texas.

[High Plains Drifter 10977]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's 50/50 at the moment due to redistricting and the giant Democrat fuck up in Texas.

 

On 4/14/2021 at 11:40 AM, Js1 said:

No one can say that 19 months out. Especially bc no new maps have been drawn. 

 

 

Fellas, I appreciate the response, but these are not the answers I was looking for.

 

 

 

[Js1 85110]

4 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

 

Fellas, I appreciate the response, but these are not the answers I was looking for.

 

 

 

If Biden stays popular and Dems keep passing popular legislation and COVID is an afterthought in 2022, Dems can keep the house. 

Why? High propensity suburban college educated voters show up. They keep running from the GOP. Dems can offset bad maps by giving themselves extra seats in places like NY, CA, MD, IL. The late arriving census data may mean more court drawn maps. 

[YChang 3431]

Alright, Beto's emails worked on me. Signed up to get training on how to register voters. Trying to do more besides donating money. 

[horn4life 3755]

The best weapon the GOP has is the border.  Past that it's a general overall growing ignorance in their voting block.

The bad news is the GOP is shedding what used to be a pretty solid block for them, the Suburban well educated voters.  A second layer of bad news that is NOT being talked about right now, the lowest covid vaccine rates are in the Reddest of Red counties.  So it is reasonable to assume going forward that a greater percentage of this voting block will become debilitated or die than in groups that are vaccinated.  

Texas is going to be Gerrymandered like you have never, ever seen before. But the secret to gerrymandering is KNOWING how to carve the map. 

I guess the best news is that Matthew McConaughey is leading Abbott in polling and if he runs a SHIT TON of folks that do not normally vote will likely come into the process, and as we all know.  More people voting is very, very, very, very bad for the GOP.  Every piece of election related legislation they pass shows that again and again and again.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

If Biden stays popular and Dems keep passing popular legislation and COVID is an afterthought in 2022, Dems can keep the house. 

Why? High propensity suburban college educated voters show up. They keep running from the GOP. Dems can offset bad maps by giving themselves extra seats in places like NY, CA, MD, IL. The late arriving census data may mean more court drawn maps. 

Have we seen ANY indication that they're actually going to do this, however? People keep saying it. But I've nothing to indicate they're actually going to carve things up the way the right does...and I'm skeptical they have the stones. 

[Js1 85110]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Have we seen ANY indication that they're actually going to do this, however? People keep saying it. But I've nothing to indicate they're actually going to carve things up the way the right does...and I'm skeptical they have the stones. 

The problem is and continues to be the delay in the census data. It’s hard to even “guess” until this data is released in September. 

[High Plains Drifter 10977]

39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The problem is and continues to be the delay in the census data. It’s hard to even “guess” until this data is released in September. 

 

Its almost like the people who were in charge of the census knew it would be bad for the GQP, and deliberately fucked it all up.

 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

17 hours ago, horn4life said:

The best weapon the GOP has is the border.  Past that it's a general overall growing ignorance in their voting block.

The bad news is the GOP is shedding what used to be a pretty solid block for them, the Suburban well educated voters.  A second layer of bad news that is NOT being talked about right now, the lowest covid vaccine rates are in the Reddest of Red counties.  So it is reasonable to assume going forward that a greater percentage of this voting block will become debilitated or die than in groups that are vaccinated.  

Texas is going to be Gerrymandered like you have never, ever seen before. But the secret to gerrymandering is KNOWING how to carve the map. 

I guess the best news is that Matthew McConaughey is leading Abbott in polling and if he runs a SHIT TON of folks that do not normally vote will likely come into the process, and as we all know.  More people voting is very, very, very, very bad for the GOP.  Every piece of election related legislation they pass shows that again and again and again.

Pretty dark imo.  Deaths aren’t occurring at electorally significant numbers, and deltas in voter preference among the dying definitely aren’t occurring in electorally signify the numbers.  50k dead in Texas.  Spread that among the house seats, that’s like 1500 a seat.  How much advantage do you think that gives one party? 300 votes max? I doubt it will change a single race in the country.  
 

By reference, Julie Oliver’s “lean” race ended up being a 55,000 vote loss. You’d have to absolutely bullseye a close as possible race with a wide as possible voter preference death rate to matter.  The weather will matter more than death toll. 

[Js1 85110]

Less for Texas and FL than thought

MN, AL, RI don’t lose seats. NY was projected -2

No new seat for AZ either 

Edited April 26, 2021 by Js1

[Js1 85110]

Actually the best outcome for the Dems. GOP has to be crushed.  They were expecting +5 from Texas and FL alone. 

CO can draw a new blue seat and Montana’s second seat would be competitive. IL and NY can draw out a Republican each.  WV will lose a GOP seat. OH will likely wipe out Tim Ryan’s district. 

GOP advantage is likely only +2-3 versus projected +4-6

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

 

[Michael Knight 12898]

Can't wait to see these gerrymandered pieces of shit. This basically eliminates the current majority

Edited April 26, 2021 by Michael Knight

[GopherRock 1765]

Razor thin margin in Minnesota.

 

 

[Js1 85110]

That’s nuts 

[Michael Knight 12898]

After we stack the courts we need to fix apportionment 

[Michael Knight 12898]

 

[Js1 85110]

Interesting thought. Trump and the GQP may have screened themselves 

 

[Guest Lobo]

9 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Razor thin margin in Minnesota.

 

 

That's fucking eerie.  

"Yeah, but how many of those people were gonna die anyway in ice fishing accidents and snowmobile pileups?"

-Dan Patrick

[GRHorn 105]

 

 

[bolverk 29402]

43 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

Sucks for them, but this is partly the result of Congress refusing to add new seats as the nation's population has grown over the last 100 years.

[Js1 85110]

6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

 

I thought they were fleeing high taxes. Sad! Can’t keep your stupid talking points straight. 

[bolverk 29402]

With this new apportionment, Biden would've lost three electoral votes.

Edited April 26, 2021 by bolverk
default map thought Texas would gain three. corrected above.

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

29 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

 

that's an interesting point.  I think april 1 is the key census date, and the ramp up of NY deaths had started just before that.

[bolverk 29402]

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

so wait, the former guy basically did all he could to stymy minority and immigrant representation in the census and it effectively kept Texas and Florida each from gaining a seat it would have otherwise and thus cost each state a ton of federal funding as well - for the next 10 years. You can't make this shit up.

[Js1 85110]

In 10 years, went from being about to redistrict an entirely majority on their own to only 42%

[bolverk 29402]

 

[bolverk 29402]

48 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so wait, the former guy basically did all he could to stymy minority and immigrant representation in the census and it effectively kept Texas and Florida each from gaining a seat it would have otherwise and thus cost each state a ton of federal funding as well - for the next 10 years. You can't make this shit up.

Don't forget Arizona. Most seem pretty shocked they didn't pick up a seat.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

47 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so wait, the former guy basically did all he could to stymy minority and immigrant representation in the census and it effectively kept Texas and Florida each from gaining a seat it would have otherwise and thus cost each state a ton of federal funding as well - for the next 10 years. You can't make this shit up.

Yes, it's completely what they did.  And Texas and Florida each had two senators who said absolutely nothing about it, even though everybody knew that this was a highly likely result.

[bolverk 29402]

Back to my soapbox on needing to add seats to the House.

From the Census press release:

After the 1790 Census, each member of the House represented about 34,000 residents. Since then, the House has more than quadrupled in size (from 105 to 435 seats), and each member will represent an average of 761,169 people based on the 2020 Census.

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

 "Y'all know who to elect for your representative. Jenna Ryan for your representative!”

[Js1 85110]

Where is the lie?

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

3 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

After we stack the courts we need to fix apportionment 

Apparently we’re not doing shit because the likes of Munchkin and the Dangerous Creature cunt can’t get on board with anything worthwhile. 

[bolverk 29402]

One thing that's really kind of astounding -- even with a potential under count -- is that Texas added 4 million people to its baseline population within the last ten years. That's like adding either the state of Oklahoma (2 Senator & 5 Representatives) or Oregon (2 Senators & 6 Representatives) to our total or the sum of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska (10 Senators & 6 Representatives). But we get just 2 new lousy Representatives out of it.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

17 minutes ago, bolverk said:

One thing that's really kind of astounding -- even with a potential under count -- is that Texas added 4 million people to its baseline population within the last ten years. 

And probably not as many MAGA types as the Republicans would like.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so wait, the former guy basically did all he could to stymy minority and immigrant representation in the census and it effectively kept Texas and Florida each from gaining a seat it would have otherwise and thus cost each state a ton of federal funding as well - for the next 10 years. You can't make this shit up.

I believe that’s called fucking around and finding out. 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

58 minutes ago, bolverk said:

That's like adding either the state of Oklahoma

 

[gmr548 16517]

so wait, the former guy basically did all he could to stymy minority and immigrant representation in the census and it effectively kept Texas and Florida each from gaining a seat it would have otherwise and thus cost each state a ton of federal funding as well - for the next 10 years. You can't make this shit up.

And those two states will respond by doubling down on the GOP.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

New York needed 89 people to keep that seat. Alright, New York, do your job and redraw the lines so that Staten Island Trump cunt is shown the fucking door.

[Js1 85110]

6 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

New York needed 89 people to keep that seat. Alright, New York, do your job and redraw the lines so that Staten Island Trump cunt is shown the fucking door.

Yup. 21-5 or 23-3 is not out of the realm of possibility in NY.  If the new numbers give the GOP a 3-4 seat advantage nationally in new seats, wipe it out in NY. (Currently 19-8) 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Js1

[Guest Lobo]

Couldn't you guys just double count people living in Marble Hill as being from the Bronx and Manhattan?  

[Bateshorn 9905]

it’s better for Dems than 2010, but they will need some luck with the exurbs in the sunbelt as well as absolutely brutal no quarter redistricting in NY, IL, and MD.   They are going to deeply regret those nonpartisan commissions in CO, CA, and VA.  

OTOH, dems didn’t really knock doors in 2020 and it had a real impact on their turn out.  if the economy is good and Biden is popular, i’ll be curious to see how the GOP’s efforts to crack and pack the suburbs works out.

 

Also: Austin, you’re getting a congressional district for the first time since the 10th was carved up by Tom Delay in 2003.  Have a pearl snap on me!

[bolverk 29402]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

it’s better for Dems than 2010, but they will need some luck with the exurbs in the sunbelt as well as absolutely brutal no quarter redistricting in NY, IL, and MD.   They are going to deeply regret those nonpartisan commissions in CO, CA, and VA.  

OTOH, dems didn’t really knock doors in 2020 and it had a real impact on their turn out.  if the economy is good and Biden is popular, i’ll be curious to see how the GOP’s efforts to crack and pack the suburbs works out.

 

Also: Austin, you’re getting a congressional district for the first time since the 10th was carved up by Tom Delay in 2003.  Have a pearl snap on me!

I'm hoping I don't live far enough from downtown that I get stuck with some gomer like Chip Roy again or whomever represents Midland.

Given the population numbers, the Austin metro area should have 3 representatives all to ourselves. But, knowing there's a gentleman's agreement that West Texas should have 5 representatives in perpetuity no matter its population, those districts are going to be doing some serious encroachment on the I-35 corridor to keep that imbalanced representation in place.

The final map is going to look like a bunch of spaghetti noodles extending out west just like South Texas's bacon strips reaching up north from the Valley.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Isn’t Ohio already way over gerrymandered in favor of the GOP?
 

it’s a lean Republican state, but I think the house delegation is somehow 12 republicans -4 democrats.  How can they make sure that the democrats lose a seat when they already have so many republicans?

[Bateshorn 9905]

7 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Isn’t Ohio already way over gerrymandered in favor of the GOP?
 

it’s a lean Republican state, but I think the house delegation is somehow 12 republicans -4 democrats.  How can they make sure that the democrats lose a seat when they already have so many republicans?

This is the conversation a lot of republican states are going to be having with the purpling of the suburbs. When you lean so heavily on the rural population for dominance, it makes drawing lines tricky.  

@bolverk I think Austin has gotten so population rich that they are going to have to pack at least one district in central Austin before they can start cracking the suburbs. 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

I keep seeing guys taking about hard line redistributing in democratic states. And talking about it as if it’s likely, or even a certainty. But I have yet to see any real indication that is actually going to happen. Well see. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I keep seeing guys taking about hard line redistributing in democratic states. And talking about it as if it’s likely, or even a certainty. But I have yet to see any real indication that is actually going to happen. Well see. 

I know with 90% certainty that Andy Harris in MD-1 is going to be drawn out of his job.  The legislature is going to jump the bay and give him liberal Annapolis and a chunk of majority-minority PG county. 

 

In NY the dems hold the keys to redistricting for the first time in literally decades (the NY senate has been GOP since the 30s until a few years ago).  There’s not a lot of juice to squeeze out of IL, but I think Rodney Davis is about to be dicked down. 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Bateshorn

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I know with 90% certainty that Andy Harris in MD-1 is going to be drawn out of his job.  The legislature is going to jump the bay and give him liberal Annapolis and a chunk of majority-minority PG county. 

I mean that’s great. I’m sure some seats might go...but I’m referencing more of a calculated ruthless redistributing in multiple states coordinated loosely by the guys at the top of the party. 

[Js1 85110]

41 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean that’s great. I’m sure some seats might go...but I’m referencing more of a calculated ruthless redistributing in multiple states coordinated loosely by the guys at the top of the party. 

That’s bc they don’t have the full data to do it yet.  And won’t until September 30.  Hard to say “this is what we are doing” if the block data doesn’t back up. May be hard decisions if Hispanics were indeed undercounted and cost FL, TX and AZ a seat  

Some of the nasty gerrymandering by both sides may be moot bc courts may have to step in and do it.  Oh and Marc Elias said they will be stepping in to protect VRA districts everywhere the GOP controls the whole process  

Oklahoma is, I believe, the only state to release maps. And it’s already a 100% GOP house delegation