2022 House Elections

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

It's obviously early, but I finally saw one of the election pundits (can't remember which) recently mention something that has seemed obvious to me for a while.  Typically, the big midterm shifts are preceded by the minority party taking notes from the previous election and making changes to their messaging, types of candidates, etc.  The Republican party is doubling down on the same shit that lost them 2020.  There really isn't a precedent for this, so any assumptions of what will happen in 2022 are pretty useless.

Barring something unforeseen, it seems to me that that if the Republicans take the House it will be due to redistricting (or straight up election shenanigans), not the "Biden backlash" that so many have basically already written into stone.

If Rs make up ground it’ll be because they’ve kept getting a bigger share of the Latino vote.  What seems like failing politics to you makes sense in the RGV. They are trading one white McKinney vote for two McAllen. 

[Js1 87187]

4 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

If Rs make up ground it’ll be because they’ve kept getting a bigger share of the Latino vote.  What seems like failing politics to you makes sense in the RGV. They are trading one white McKinney vote for two McAllen. 

Rs ran in NM on rising crime and defund the police. Hispanic support for Stansbury was similar to Obama 08 levels for the Dems. It didn’t work this time. 

She also fully addressed the defund the police BS instead of hiding from it. Lessons were learned. 

 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Js1

[gmr548 16702]

The NM-1 win is good in that outperforming Biden and the district’s partisan lean is a data point in favor of no impending doom in the midterms.

I wouldn’t read too much into it though. Four special elections this year, all non competitive, both parties running it up in their districts. I think it just tells is the bases are motivated.

[Js1 87187]

Just now, gmr548 said:

The NM-1 win is good in that outperforming Biden and the district’s partisan lean is a data point in favor of no impending doom in the midterms.

I wouldn’t read too much into it though. Four special elections this year, all non competitive, both parties running it up in their districts. I think it just tells is the bases are motivated.

 

[gmr548 16702]

 

The one item in that trend line that stands out is the Trump Bump in 2020 for Rs. This is just one special election in a Democratic district, so I’m not going to jump to conclusions, but if a chunk of voters who are Trumpers, not Republicans, sits out and the landscape looks like 2018, then you like your odds a lot more.

Of course it won’t matter because anyone who thinks Democratic wins are getting certified in GOP controlled states is living in a fantasy world.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13733]

I can see that "anti-defund the police" is a good rallying cry for the hardcore right. But the GOP problem is that no one of the left is running on defunding the police in swing districts. Sure, a +50% blue district might make some noise but those districts don't decide the House agenda. Every GOP challenger will be running against AOC, Tlaib and Omar.

As of today, the GOP is in trouble for 2022 in terms of regaining the House. Obviously there is a lot of time for things to go wrong for Biden and the Dems but average American is really happy right now. Not to mention that even conservatives are happy to not see a president in the news every day.

The downside for the Dems in the House is that there are probably few existing GOP seats to win. And you will have Texas and Florida redrawing the maps to make it even easier for the GOP to take the new apportioned seats and most likely many of the existing ones.

[Dr. Teeth 5868]

Say Pelosi and Schumer a lot in your ad spot. Throw in a little squad talk and then make some anti-Semitic remark and then you can say say something about crime being bad. That’s how you win without talking about defunding the police. 

[Js1 87187]

57 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The one item in that trend line that stands out is the Trump Bump in 2020 for Rs. This is just one special election in a Democratic district, so I’m not going to jump to conclusions, but if a chunk of voters who are Trumpers, not Republicans, sits out and the landscape looks like 2018, then you like your odds a lot more.

Of course it won’t matter because anyone who thinks Democratic wins are getting certified in GOP controlled states is living in a fantasy world.

One of the benefits of the current realignment is the suburban/college educated shift to Dems (high propensity voters).  They show up.  The Trumpiest Rs don't show up except for Trump (2018 and Georgia 2021). 

This was the first traditional R vs D special election for a House seat of the Biden era (the Louisiana races were jungle primaries and ended up being R/R and D/D in safe districts and the TX-6 was a jungle primary as well, with 2 of those 3 races ft. the dead congressman's window).  

The GOP wanted to hold the Dems to something less than 10 to show they had momentum and history on their side and still were going to capture a higher share of the Hispanic vote and rebound in the suburbs.  This is a district that is 47% white and 42% Hispanic.  If they were going to have a suburban rebound (ABQ suburbs) and maintain their Hispanic surge from 2020, this was a good district to prove that.

They.... did neither.  

In fact, the GOP nominee lost his own state Senate district last night and Stansbury won hers by a bigger margin than her last race. 

[gmr548 16702]

One of the benefits of the current realignment is the suburban/college educated shift to Dems (high propensity voters).  They show up.  The Trumpiest Rs don't show up except for Trump (2018 and Georgia 2021). 
This was the first traditional R vs D special election for a House seat of the Biden era (the Louisiana races were jungle primaries and ended up being R/R and D/D in safe districts and the TX-6 was a jungle primary as well, with 2 of those 3 races ft. the dead congressman's window).  
The GOP wanted to hold the Dems to something less than 10 to show they had momentum and history on their side and still were going to capture a higher share of the Hispanic vote and rebound in the suburbs.  This is a district that is 47% white and 42% Hispanic.  If they were going to have a suburban rebound (ABQ suburbs) and maintain their Hispanic surge from 2020, this was a good district to prove that.
They.... did neither.  
In fact, the GOP nominee lost his own state Senate district last night and Stansbury won hers by a bigger margin than her last race. 

None of that is wrong, and I’m aware of much of it, but one race in June 2021 is not enough for me to start spiking the football.

[Voldemort86 2259]

The results look good and the takeaway is the GOP got shut out. They can’t even say anything except that it’s a very liberal district voting to elect a Democrat.

It’s way too early, but I’m hoping that this midterm cycle will resemble 2002. I wasn’t an adult back then and I didn’t follow politics, so maybe someone can fill me in on the details, but I remember a country that was “galvanized” in support of showing solidarity. That solidarity or patriotism included supporting the leader at the time “GWB”. We all know dubbya proved himself to be a terrible spokesman and an awful president, but hey he’s the leader we had at the time and by golly we supported him against those evil taliban.

the environment in the country seemed to be one that heavily favored the GOP. People were on edge, they wanted to be told everything was ok, and the dubbya administration always wanted to be seen by the American public as “kicking someone’s ass”. Dick Cheney was chomping at the bit to start some wars and crack some skulls. Karl rove wanted to scratch dubbya’s back all day and tell him he’s smart. Condoleeza Rice got sent all over the world to represent an administration that she was way over over qualified and too intelligent to represent.

I kind of view the environment today as somewhat similar. America is recovering from a very traumatic global recession. Even Republican voters can see that the Biden administration has done a decent job in year one. The case numbers are down, vaccinations are being adequately distributed, ( the main hold outs are idiot trumpers), things are opening up, we will probably soon be able to go to the movies again. Their relief package has proven so successful that some republicans are running on it even tho they voted against it. School will be “normalized” in the fall.  It looks like by and large this country is moving on from the virus and Biden is leading us through it all.

the only difference I see from those 2 time periods is polarization. It seems like lots of Republican voters today would vote for a Republican candidate who was a nazi supporter, racist, xenophobe, psycho just because he has an “R” besides his name. 

[Jive Turkey 13005]

6 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Sorry Adam. Talk is cheap.

He’ll get a fat contract on CNN to be the “reasonable both sides Republican”.

yep.  he'll slide into Santorum's old seat.

[Js1 87187]

26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

None of that is wrong, and I’m aware of much of it, but one race in June 2021 is not enough for me to start spiking the football.

Sure. I can buy that. Except - 

At this point in June 2017,  Dems had already shown huge momentum to foreshadow a 2018 wave: (avg. movement towards Dems was a 17 point swing and Dems picked up 41 seats)

• GA-7 R+23 to R+3.5
• KS-4 R+30 to R+6
• MT-AL R+15.6 to R+5.5
• SC-5 R+20.5 to R+3

During Obama's first term, there were a number of special elections in 2009 that foretold 2010's wave (avg. movement towards Rs was 18 points and Rs picked up 63 seats)

• NY-20 (D+23.6 to D+0.45)
• IL-5 (D+52 to D+45)
• CA-10 (D+34 to D+10)

I'm only looking at traditional R vs D. vs minor parties, not the LA/TX ones with a dozen candidates and top 2 advancing. 

So far, for Biden's first term -

NM-01 D+16.38 to D+24.52

Plenty more data points to come later in the year:

• FL-20 (Jan 11, 2022) - D+57 to ??
• OH-11 (Nov 2, 2021) - D+60.2 to ??
• OH-15 (Nov 2, 2021) - R+26.8 to ??

If Dems make even a small dent in OH-15, it will speak a lot to the 2022 environment.   

Dems don't need to swing everything to them by 18 points like 2017 because they have the majority already - a smaller 8 point swing would keep them with the House (maybe picking up 8-10 seats that are Biden-R districts, plus some new ones in redistricting in CA, NY, IL and fairer maps in PA, MI and WI to offset NC, TX, FL) and likely net 2-3 Senate seats (PA, WI, NC). 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Js1

[Nice Guy Eddie 13733]

As the GOP has completely hitched their wagon to Trump, they have a difficult problem in that Trump has lost his voice. I'm sure his first 1 or 2 rallies will get media attention but even the conservative news sites and even attendees grew weary of them in the last cycle. Besides Trump will not want to campaign for House races. Maybe he will go out of his way in a couple of primaries or general election but I imagine he will demand large fees to show up at campaign rallies. You want a crowd and media attention, that will be $2m.

 

[Js1 87187]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As the GOP has completely hitched their wagon to Trump, they have a difficult problem in that Trump has lost his voice. I'm sure his first 1 or 2 rallies will get media attention but even the conservative news sites and even attendees grew weary of them in the last cycle. Besides Trump will not want to campaign for House races. Maybe he will go out of his way in a couple of primaries or general election but I imagine he will demand large fees to show up at campaign rallies. You want a crowd and media attention, that will be $2m.

 

Don’t forget the RNC is intentionally hiding polling from members that Trump is still toxic in swing districts. 

[berlinerbaer 692]

14 hours ago, gmr548 said:

The NM-1 win is good in that outperforming Biden and the district’s partisan lean is a data point in favor of no impending doom in the midterms.

I wouldn’t read too much into it though. Four special elections this year, all non competitive, both parties running it up in their districts. I think it just tells is the bases are motivated.

This. The base is itching to vote and everyone else is like whatever. As districts lean further toward one side, the percentage of that side composed of hungry partisans is probably larger than it is for the other side, leading to more lopsided victories.

So far, two red districts swung 13 points more red and two blue districts swung 11 points more blue, on average.

All in all, it looks to be a fairly neutral political environment. I think the last generic ballot poll I saw was D+5. Unfortunately, redistricting alone should be enough for the GOP to net a small majority in the House in 2022 if things stay mostly as they are right now.

I will say that 131k isn't bad for special election turnout. That's the best of the cycle and almost double the dogshit TX-6 numbers last month.

[Js1 87187]

Colorado (holla) is the first state to release its starting maps for the decade.  Not the final map, but preliminary. 

As drawn its 4-3 with a tossup district.  Currently 4D-3R delegation but Colorado gains a seat.   Looks like it should be a Dem gain of one (5-3 likely)

CO-7 should be lean D for ratings as it's a big chunk of Denver that includes Golden, Wheat Ridge, Lakewood, Evergreen, Aspen Park and Conifer that were heavily blue in 2020.   

Funny enough, the Colorado redistricting committee is supposed to make maps "competitive" and really shored up 5 districts, added in a lean D district and then made CO-7 competitive. 

Boobert gets an easier district to run in.  Colorado Springs gets its own district but El Paso County is racing left - will be interesting to watch in 10 years if the map is now 6-2. 

Edited June 23, 2021 by Js1

[Js1 87187]

It turns out the CO independent commission was using the 2018 AG race as the baseline for drawing these maps and they're supposed to work from an angle of creating competitive districts, so it reasons they chose the most competitive race from the last 2 cycles.

• 2018 Gov - D+10.6
• 2018 AG - D+6.5
• 2018 SOS - D+8
• 2018 Treasurer - D+7.3
• 2020 President - D+13.5
• 2020 Senate - D+9.3

Below are the 2020 Presidential numbers versus the 2018 AG race

CO-1: Biden+62 (D+56 in 2018 AG race)
CO-2: Biden+33 (D+27)
CO-3: Trump+7 (R+10)
CO-4: Trump+20 (R+23)
CO-5: Trump+11 (R+20)
CO-6: Biden+25 (D+13)
CO-7: Biden+9 (R+3)
CO-8: Biden+15 (D+7)

On the surface, they drew some competitive districts (3/7) using the AG race baseline but looking at the trends towards 2020, they aren't that competitive (2/7).  It's a pretty solid 5-3 map, with CO-5 (Colorado Springs) and CO-03 (Western part of the state) looking like they could be tossup or Dem leaning in 10 years.  

Edited June 24, 2021 by Js1

[berlinerbaer 692]

 

 

[Biff Tannen 46168]

2 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

 

 

Wow. Has to be one of the first Dotard endorsed people to win right?

[Bama Chick 28596]

Ew. How very Trumpy of her.

[Js1 87187]

Moderates still rule the party 

[cactusflinthead 27627]

Oh, I don't know, maybe don't compare Biden to a bowl of shit. Try that. See how that works out for you Nina.

 

[cactusflinthead 27627]

 

[bad_teammate 13526]

Wow. Has to be one of the first Dotard endorsed people to win right?

lol

Live by the sword die by the sword. The dark money was coming for Nina regardless, but she got notoriety and big fundraising by attacking the shitty center and she got more dark money against her because of it.

Of course the liberal takeaway is to always show deference to the centrist octogenarians in the hope you can win and accomplish a 1.257% tax advantage credit for pap smears.

Keep talking shit, Nina. Fuck the Democratic establishment all day. They made sure you didn't upset their tea party, that's all this is.

[bad_teammate 13526]

 

Did the black vote actually break against Turner or is this just Internet white people saying shit like "she ain't be invited to no cookout!"?

[cactusflinthead 27627]

24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

46 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Did the black vote actually break against Turner or is this just Internet white people saying shit like "she ain't be invited to no cookout!"?

Might be a bit before we get a full breakdown. Ain't seeing anything.

This seems to be the tenor of the discussion.

And there ya go. 

 

[Willfully Horn 8265]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Fuck the Democratic establishment all day

Right on cue. Ain’t no art of compromise in your political toolbox, huh?

Edited August 4, 2021 by Willfully Horn
In

[Bateshorn 9991]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

lol

Live by the sword die by the sword. The dark money was coming for Nina regardless, but she got notoriety and big fundraising by attacking the shitty center and she got more dark money against her because of it.

Of course the liberal takeaway is to always show deference to the centrist octogenarians in the hope you can win and accomplish a 1.257% tax advantage credit for pap smears.

Keep talking shit, Nina. Fuck the Democratic establishment all day. They made sure you didn't upset their tea party, that's all this is.

Although I’m not invested in this race, at all, and honestly wasn’t following it, this is the Surl, so I’m going to say it:

Take the Loss, P*ssy. 

Edited August 4, 2021 by Bateshorn

[Js1 87187]

36 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Right on cue. Ain’t no art of compromise in your political toolbox, huh?

1. Denigrate the last 2 Democratic presidential candidates

2. Threaten not to vote for them

3. Run for office in an open seat vacated by the current HUD secretary

4. Continue to shit on the establishment and be super shocked they came out against you (if James Clyburn comes out against you in a majority black district, ya done for)

???

5. Lose

[alincoln 2391]

Imagine thinking that twitter followers relates in any way to the outcome of an election in OH-11, which isn't exactly a demographic paradise for Twitter socialists.  Hillary defeated Bernie there in 2016 by more than 2-1.  

The headlines regarding Brown "edging" Turner 50-44 are also high comedy.

[gmr548 16702]

OH-11 is 53 percent black. The Democratic primary electorate likely as much or more so. The idea that Brown won by six percentage points with limited black support is silly given the demographics of both the districts and the left wing of the party. I’d have voted Turner but anyone trying to spin that narrative is acting in bad faith.

[Js1 87187]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

OH-11 is 53 percent black. The Democratic primary electorate likely as much or more so. The idea that Brown won by six percentage points with limited black support is silly given the demographics of both the districts and the left wing of the party. I’d have voted Turner but anyone trying to spin that narrative is acting in bad faith.

This is very much in the vein of "I don't understand how Joe Biden won the primary!" 

• Twitter is not real life
• The Democratic base (black voters and Jewish voters) are (still) pretty moderate and pro-establishment
• No one else has their finger on the pulse of the Democratic base like Clyburn
• Hillary Clinton still has a powerful voice amongst the base of the party (she endorsed Brown)
• The media is ready and willing to relitigate 2016 (Bernie/AOC/Omar/Tlaib vs. Clyburn/Biden/Clinton), but the Democratic primary base is not

[bad_teammate 13526]

Who is shocked or surprised? Not me.
Who said Brown had low black support? Not me.

I simply asked whether or not Turner was actually spurned by black voters or if this was another case of idpol-obsessed white liberals putting on their digital blackface and/or pretending to be the voice of black voters.

Maybe all she got was white kid socialist votes. Don't know. My bet is that it was a mix and this isn't really a case of black voters rejecting progressive policy, but is instead or a polarizing figure being successfully attacked by millions in negative ads from dark money.

Dark money and the establishment came for the challenger. Tale as old as time. Will continue to happen.

------
Take the loss, pussy.
------

What does this even mean?

What do you people even want? Zero challenges to established power?

[Willfully Horn 8265]

21 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

What do you people even want? Zero challenges to established power?

I donated to Turner. When she speaks, I listen. I wish she had won. But she did not, so I want to know she will fight for the Party, too. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

48 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

------
Take the loss, pussy.
------

What does this even mean?

What do you people even want? Zero challenges to established power?

It’s a Texas Longhorn reference. When Texas beat OU in 2018.  The Texas QB, Sam Erhlinger went to say good game to the OU QB, Kyler Murray,  who had never lost a game since a kid.  Murray told him to fuck off, so Erhlinger told him “Take the Loss, P” 

There was video for a while, but it got taken down. 

[Js1 87187]

 

[bad_teammate 13526]

2 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

I donated to Turner. When she speaks, I listen. I wish she had won. But she did not, so I want to know she will fight for the Party, too. 

meh, I'd rather her fight for the people

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

It’s a Texas Longhorn reference. When Texas beat OU in 2018.  The Texas QB, Sam Erhlinger went to say good game to the OU QB, Kyler Murray,  who had never lost a game since a kid.  Murray told him to fuck off, so Erhlinger told him “Take the Loss, P” 

There was video for a while, but it got taken down. 

I get the reference, I just don't know what it's supposed to mean in this context.

[Biff Tannen 46168]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Twitter is not real life

This is difficult for a lot of people to understand.  Facebook too.

[Willfully Horn 8265]

41 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I'd rather her fight for the people

I used to vote Green, and Rainbow. But I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now. We’ve effectively a two party system, for better or worse, and the Rs say they’re for the people, too.

Give me progress within the rule of law. The Ds have a track record of delivering on that.

[wildcat09 29580]

Turner was my preferred candidate, but I absolutely hate her "we didn't lose!" shit. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

Nina probably should have put her back into winning instead of relying on a single poll before the outside effort lined up against her.

[bad_teammate 13526]

2 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

I used to vote Green, and Rainbow. But I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now. We’ve effectively a two party system, for better or worse, and the Rs say they’re for the people, too.

Give me progress within the rule of law. The Ds have a track record of delivering on that.

Personally, I've never voted third party. Been working within the Dem Party at various levels since the 80s.

You might not see it as a big deal, but the linguistic choice of "for the Party" is not something I am into. My loyalty to the Democratic Party extends only as far as the Democratic Party helps the people.

The two things are not synonymous.

 

[Willfully Horn 8265]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Personally, I've never voted third party. Been working within the Dem Party at various levels since the 80s.

You might not see it as a big deal, but the linguistic choice of "for the Party" is not something I am into. My loyalty to the Democratic Party extends only as far as the Democratic Party helps the people.

The two things are not synonymous.

 

Fair, and noted.

[berlinerbaer 692]

Shit 

Was D+9 in May

 

[Satchel 6982]

Jason Johnson makes the case that Nina Turner was in fact the establishment candidate:

https://thegrio.com/2021/08/04/why-nina-turner-lost-ohio-primary-race/

[Gengs1 2583]

2 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Shit 

Was D+9 in May

 

By the time 2022 rolls around, the Rs will have the nation convinced that Dems didn’t want anyone to get vaccinated and they were the real science pushers, and it will work 

[atomheartbevo 90651]

13 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

By the time 2022 rolls around, the Rs will have the nation convinced that Dems didn’t want anyone to get vaccinated and they were the real science pushers, and it will work 

You're assuming there will still be a lot of Republican voters still around in 2022.

George Soros's plans to unleash the China virus on the world and deliberately trick Republicans into avoiding the vaccine is working pretty well right now.

[Js1 87187]

Ron Kind (D, WI-03) announces retirement.  He was one of 7 Dems in a Trump district, so this will be pretty damn competitive. 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/10/democrat-u-s-rep-ron-kind-wisconsin-wont-seek-re-election/5557639001/

He's been in office since 1997 and said he just ran out of gas.  I'd say he's too young for to be burned out as he's 58, but he's been in office since he was 34 and this would have been his 14th election.

This is Wisconsin's most competitive seat and no idea what redistricting will do to it.  He won it with 50.28% in 2010 (red wave year), 56.46% in 2014 (another red wave year) and hit 59.65% in 2018 (blue wave year).  He survived Donald Trump juicing turnout in 2020 with 51.3% of the vote. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

Kind retiring is not a great sign.  I’m not saying it’s a blaring red klaxon, but it’s not great, Bob, if you are the DCCC.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Supposedly some important info for redistricting drops tomorrow. Expect the “white power” republicans to freak out about the new numbers.