2022 House Elections

[GopherRock 1765]

Ron Kind = Wisconsin's Colin Peterson. Given the areas of Wisconsin he represents, I'm surprised that he made it this long.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Supposedly some important info for redistricting drops tomorrow. Expect the “white power” republicans to freak out about the new numbers.

What exactly do you mean? Like the redistricting (in which state) is going against what folks expect in regards to right gerrymandering, or a bunch of not-so-closeted racists are going to randy marsh all over twitter?

[Bateshorn 9905]

54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What exactly do you mean? Like the redistricting (in which state) is going against what folks expect in regards to right gerrymandering, or a bunch of not-so-closeted racists are going to randy marsh all over twitter?

The census is going to release demographic data, including race, tomorrow.  It’s expected to show that all of the last decades population growth has come from immigrants and minorities.  But I’m not sure how the Texas, AZ, FL undercount is going to impact that.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

The census is going to release demographic data, including race, tomorrow.  It’s expected to show that all of the last decades population growth has come from immigrants and minorities.  But I’m not sure how the Texas, AZ, FL undercount is going to impact that.

Oh. You mean what everyone expected? Jesus, I'd forgotten about the whole "See America isn't America" bullshit argument while everyone ignores that we literally need immigrant labor to continue to grow since, you know, we're not having kids. Like almost every other fucking country in the world. 

[Js1 85112]

5 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Kind retiring is not a great sign.  I’m not saying it’s a blaring red klaxon, but it’s not great, Bob, if you are the DCCC.

It's not great, if you are the DCCC, but it's not terrible.  WI Dems are crushing it under Winkler, fundraising wise, and you should have a marquee Senate race to really juice turnout.  No Trump on the ballot either.  Evers being able to veto maps (and the GOP not having veto-proof majorities) means there should be fair WI Maps for the first time in a long time, even though by "fair" its probably 5-3 R on paper, versus 6-2 R. 

I can totally understand Kind calling it quits - 13 consecutive elections is a lot, though he's only had 2 "close" elections (<5 points) in the past decade (2010 and 2020).  He's the dean of the WI House delegation.  

This really reads as "I'm burned out from doing this since Clinton was president and being in Congress sucks ass right now." 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Js1

[Js1 85112]

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by Js1

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

I’m no expert but that makes it look like Texas and Florida are not gonna be easy to gerrymander, especially considering the trump effect factor. 

[Js1 85112]

1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m no expert but that makes it look like Texas and Florida are not gonna be easy to gerrymander, especially considering the trump effect factor. 

Also looks like it could be a California rural Rep district gets cut and a NY upstate Rep district gets cut, versus some Dem in LA getting their district axed. 

This was much better than expected! 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

that really is shocking to me that all those rural texas counties actually lost people.  

[Js1 85112]

I wonder:

A) How much of that rural bleed is also non-response since Trump politicized the census? 

B) Will Texas dummymander for short term (22/24) wins at the expense of losing most control by 28/30? 

C) Georgia is now majority-minority and Texas white/Hispanic is almost 50/50 (39.8 white and 39.3 Hispanic) - both states look doomed for the GOP without any measure of moderation/reform of their shitty message

[bluto 4894]

that really is shocking to me that all those rural texas counties actually lost people.  

Really? Wtf jobs are there to support growth? Younger generations realize it’s dead end too.

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I wonder:

A) How much of that rural bleed is also non-response since Trump politicized the census? 

B) Will Texas dummymander for short term (22/24) wins at the expense of losing most control by 28/30? 

C) Georgia is now majority-minority and Texas white/Hispanic is almost 50/50 (39.8 white and 39.3 Hispanic) - both states look doomed for the GOP without any measure of moderation/reform of their shitty message

GOP State legislatures: 

[The Dog 43808]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m no expert but that makes it look like Texas and Florida are not gonna be easy to gerrymander, especially considering the trump effect factor. 

Been wondering that myself - especially the losses the GOP has taken in the suburbs thanks to the "trump effect" you mentioned. 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Also looks like it could be a California rural Rep district gets cut and a NY upstate Rep district gets cut, versus some Dem in LA getting their district axed. 

 

and Maryland Democrats are likely going to gerrymander out their only GOP seat. 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

gerrymander is high art.  that guy that died and had his daughter spill the beans made that clear.  they enter all the demographics into a computer and it pops out 1000 different gerrymanders that the politicians pick from, balancing between extreme 100% congressional win to something more politically feasible.  They just go with the one they think is the most gerrymandered that they can get away with.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

that really is shocking to me that all those rural texas counties actually lost people.  

Are you being serious?

It's been an issue for the past 50 years or so, but I wouldn't be surprised if an exodus of sorts is picking up.

And I know plenty of liberals moving out to the country, who want to do the whole hobby farm thing.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

3 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m no expert but that makes it look like Texas and Florida are not gonna be easy to gerrymander, especially considering the trump effect factor. 

Based on the demographic changes and where people are moving in from, the problem Texas Republicans face is that they are going to have to really water down some (R) districts, and risk losing those districts in an election or two.

[The Dog 43808]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Based on the demographic changes and where people are moving in from, the problem Texas Republicans face is that they are going to have to really water down some (R) districts, and risk losing those districts in an election or two.

Wasserman had a tweet thread about this about a month ago where he suggests they draw a "vote sink" in Austin so they can have a better shot at holding their lead and win the two new seats:

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

Texas Democrats need to flee to D.C again

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

that really is shocking to me that all those rural texas counties actually lost people.  

look at the map of Texas, draw a line from the most northwestern panhandle county all the way down to about Laredo county. Then draw another line just east of El Paso and another one through Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio generally. 

I know it makes me a terrible person, but every dead white person in the region listed is great news for democrats and Americans who love a government who actually cares about and supports there people. The white folks who die off there generally don’t be replaced. They vote overwhelmingly 90-95% Republican per county and they are generally a waste of time. All they care about is pwning the libs and it is sad.

I say this as a white male in his 30’s…. Those people fucking suck.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Just sitting here hoping my state commission either keeps it 5-4 or makes AZ-6 more Democratic 

[gmr548 16517]

that really is shocking to me that all those rural texas counties actually lost people.  

Have you been out there recently?

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Have you been out there recently?

Yeah.  I’m from Cooke county.  It looks like it’s saying it has grown though. 

[Hookah Horns 3082]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

look at the map of Texas, draw a line from the most northwestern panhandle county all the way down to about Laredo county. Then draw another line just east of El Paso and another one through Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio generally. 

I know it makes me a terrible person, but every dead white person in the region listed is great news for democrats and Americans who love a government who actually cares about and supports there people. The white folks who die off there generally don’t be replaced. They vote overwhelmingly 90-95% Republican per county and they are generally a waste of time. All they care about is pwning the libs and it is sad.

I say this as a white male in his 30’s…. Those people fucking suck.

Could just say rural people. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

That census data is a fucking nightmare for the Texas GOP. Even bringing back the old Texas 10th (a Austin focused district), they are going to be hard pressed to do much more than shore up the current split and pray it holds for the whole decade (it won’t).  Having been in some redistricting meetings two decades ago, every sitting GOP member is going to begging to make their districts way more rural, and there’s only so much of that to go around. 
 

OTOH, if you live in a largely white/black state like Ohio, it’s not that big of a deal. 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That census data is a fucking nightmare for the Texas GOP. Even bringing back the old Texas 10th (a Austin focused district), they are going to be hard pressed to do much more than shore up the current split and pray it holds for the whole decade (it won’t).  Having been in some redistricting meetings two decades ago, every sitting GOP member is going to begging to make their districts way more rural, and there’s only so much of that to go around. 
 

OTOH, if you live in a largely white/black state like Ohio, it’s not that big of a deal. 

Do you think it’s any more complicated than what is suggested in that tweet up above? It says there they can make every district that is currently Republican an R +10 and also capture the two new districts so long as they dump all of Austin‘s votes into one district.

[kevwun 15653]

The problem is that to make the population numbers work, the rural districts have to grow since those areas lost population.  That is complicated by the fact that they can't carve the small rural counties up because they have to be in a single district by law.  As a result, you can't simply make every rural district bigger without encroaching on the suburbs which aren't as reliably Republican anymore.

Edited August 13, 2021 by kevwun

[GopherRock 1765]

59 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That census data is a fucking nightmare for the Texas GOP. Even bringing back the old Texas 10th (a Austin focused district), they are going to be hard pressed to do much more than shore up the current split and pray it holds for the whole decade (it won’t).  Having been in some redistricting meetings two decades ago, every sitting GOP member is going to begging to make their districts way more rural, and there’s only so much of that to go around. 
 

OTOH, if you live in a largely white/black state like Ohio, it’s not that big of a deal. 

Speaking of Ohio, that is another state where the GOP is facing the same questions as Texas, but with three complications: 1) At 13-3 GOP, this is as much water that can be wrung from this stone 2) they lose a seat due to realignment, and 3) an independent commission will be drawing the next set of maps. 

I'm not expecting bloodletting, but if control of the House comes down to 1 or 2 seats somewhere, I feel like no one is accounting for potential loss of Republican seats in Ohio.

[Bateshorn 9905]

39 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The problem is that to make the population numbers work, the rural districts have to grow since those areas lost population.  That is complicated by the fact that they can't carve the small rural counties up because they have to be in a single district by law.  As a result, you can't simply make every rural district bigger without encroaching on the suburbs which aren't as reliably Republican anymore.

Este. 
 

it’s not that the Texas GOP can’t eke out 2 more seats, it’s that some of those redrawn districts are going to be competitive by mid decade because of demographics and the great rural die off.  
 

If you think you are going to take back the house, every Texas GOP member is going to be begging for more rural counties and less suburbs so they aren’t in a light pink/purple district by 2026.  

[Js1 85112]

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Este. 
 

it’s not that the Texas GOP can’t eke out 2 more seats, it’s that some of those redrawn districts are going to be competitive by mid decade because of demographics and the great rural die off.  
 

If you think you are going to take back the house, every Texas GOP member is going to be begging for more rural counties and less suburbs so they aren’t in a light pink/purple district by 2026.  

Yep - the good ole' dummymander.  A lot of state GOPs are going to be dummymandering enough to get the House back in 2022 or 2024, without realizing they are going to fuck themselves from 2026-2032.  And by then, some of these states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona, etc. might have Dems in control of redistricting for the 2030s.

You can do a lot for short-term wins and lose the long term war - look at Arkansas.  The Dems in power gerrymandered the state in 2010 and then demographic swings obliterated them halfway through the decade.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Js1

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

In looking at the Houston area districts, there is a net gain of 440K residents not counting McCaul's district. FYI, it appears that Texas' districts will each be set to ~767K population in the redistricting.

• The suburban Republican greater Houston districts have previously boxed in the urban Dem districts to keep them at 4 dem seats including Fletcher. Those 4 districts didn't grow much and only average 770K each with the 2020 census.
  • Garcia's district actually has to expand by 50K to get to the 767K level. 
• Nehls is an interesting district for Fort Bend. 2020 was only +4 R but he needs to drop 205K population. The Republicans might be able to shift his more urban areas into Green's district who can then lose population to Garcia.

I bet there is a method to add 2 seats for Texas and make both of them Republican. Whether the inevitable court challenges will accept Texas only having 13 out of 38 seats as Democrat is another story especially when Texas was only +5.5 for Trump.  I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans actually shrink the Dem's seats in hope of settling on nabbing the 2 new ones.

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

4 hours ago, kevwun said:

The problem is that to make the population numbers work, the rural districts have to grow since those areas lost population.  That is complicated by the fact that they can't carve the small rural counties up because they have to be in a single district by law.  As a result, you can't simply make every rural district bigger without encroaching on the suburbs which aren't as reliably Republican anymore.

Hell, I'm still amazed at how fast Williamson County started flipping.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I bet there is a method to add 2 seats for Texas and make both of them Republican. Whether the inevitable court challenges will accept Texas only having 13 out of 38 seats as Democrat is another story especially when Texas was only +5.5 for Trump. 

It's going to be a tough nut to crack for them, without weakening other districts.  There's no point to gain two seats now, if the Rs lose more seats in weakened (R) districts within two elections.

And given that Trump won't be running in 2024, and that apparently his endorsements don't mean a lot in Texas these days, it'll be interesting.  I agree with Bateshorn - lots of Republicans are going to be begging to make their districts more red.

[gmr548 16517]

In looking at the Houston area districts, there is a net gain of 440K residents not counting McCaul's district. FYI, it appears that Texas' districts will each be set to ~767K population in the redistricting.

• The suburban Republican greater Houston districts have previously boxed in the urban Dem districts to keep them at 4 dem seats including Fletcher. Those 4 districts didn't grow much and only average 770K each with the 2020 census.
  • Garcia's district actually has to expand by 50K to get to the 767K level. 
• Nehls is an interesting district for Fort Bend. 2020 was only +4 R but he needs to drop 205K population. The Republicans might be able to shift his more urban areas into Green's district who can then lose population to Garcia.

I bet there is a method to add 2 seats for Texas and make both of them Republican. Whether the inevitable court challenges will accept Texas only having 13 out of 38 seats as Democrat is another story especially when Texas was only +5.5 for Trump.  I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans actually shrink the Dem's seats in hope of settling on nabbing the 2 new ones.
 

I do not think they will add two Republican seats. They have to give Austin its own central congressional district. Austin will devour all five or however many GOP districts it’s split into over the next decade otherwise. Going from crack to pack preserves those GOP seats.

[Js1 85112]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In looking at the Houston area districts, there is a net gain of 440K residents not counting McCaul's district. FYI, it appears that Texas' districts will each be set to ~767K population in the redistricting.

• The suburban Republican greater Houston districts have previously boxed in the urban Dem districts to keep them at 4 dem seats including Fletcher. Those 4 districts didn't grow much and only average 770K each with the 2020 census.
  • Garcia's district actually has to expand by 50K to get to the 767K level. 
• Nehls is an interesting district for Fort Bend. 2020 was only +4 R but he needs to drop 205K population. The Republicans might be able to shift his more urban areas into Green's district who can then lose population to Garcia.

I bet there is a method to add 2 seats for Texas and make both of them Republican. Whether the inevitable court challenges will accept Texas only having 13 out of 38 seats as Democrat is another story especially when Texas was only +5.5 for Trump.  I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans actually shrink the Dem's seats in hope of settling on nabbing the 2 new ones.

 

FB County could be entirely it's own its own district after this census. 

[Js1 85112]

@PenelopeWitherspoon

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

@PenelopeWitherspoon

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

I think it has to be done. It will offset GOP redistricting shenanigans in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Negged for posting a baylor gif. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

@PenelopeWitherspoon

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

I meant to come back to this thread and comment.

From the Twitter thread:

Quote

A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10

This makes me gruntled.  Nicole Malliotakis is a toxic shitstain of a rep who needs to be ousted ASAP.

I am no Elise Stefanik fan, and maybe her fawning over Trump will get her in a bit of trouble.  But I would take her over Malliotakis any day of the week and twice on Sunday.  Malliotakis is in the Gaetz, MTG, and Boebert camp.  

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I meant to come back to this thread and comment.

From the Twitter thread:

This makes me gruntled.  Nicole Malliotakis is a toxic shitstain of a rep who needs to be ousted ASAP.

I am no Elise Stefanik fan, and maybe her fawning over Trump will get her in a bit of trouble.  But I would take her over Malliotakis any day of the week and twice on Sunday.  Malliotakis is in the Gaetz, MTG, and Boebert camp.  

It’s not about picking and choosing which republicans survive. It’s about getting rid of as many of them as possible in New York and Illinois to offset what Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia will do.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s not about picking and choosing which republicans survive. It’s about getting rid of as many of them as possible in New York and Illinois to offset what Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia will do.

North Carolina has a democratic governor, do they not? Does he not have some say and power in how those districts are drawn in that state?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s not about picking and choosing which republicans survive. It’s about getting rid of as many of them as possible in New York and Illinois to offset what Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia will do.

I know.  But Stefanik is a lot more moderate than Malliotakis.  Still, you get rid of all but 3 of the NY GOP seats?  I would love to see all 8 go Blue, but there are too many Trumpies in certain communities to do that.

[Js1 85112]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

North Carolina has a democratic governor, do they not? Does he not have some say and power in how those districts are drawn in that state?

Nope.  NC is a state where the governor has no say in redistricting.  Can't even veto maps.

The fallback is the NC Supreme Court - even though the Chief Justice lost in 2020 (by less than 500 votes), Dems do still have a 4-3 majority on the court. 

The flipside is Wisconsin, where Evers can veto maps but the GOP has a 4-3 majority.  But one of the GOP justices has been very liberal when it comes to voting rights.  

Edited August 17, 2021 by Js1

[SydneyCarton 47884]

Well fuck. 

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Cooper is a kick ass governor. NC hamstrings the gub so much it's not funny, but deft use of executive orders allows him to get by.

I figure one more cycle until NC can un-gerrymander. It's going to skip purple and go straight to blue when that happens.

[pyrohornIII 4809]

On 8/13/2021 at 8:57 AM, kevwun said:

The problem is that to make the population numbers work, the rural districts have to grow since those areas lost population.  That is complicated by the fact that they can't carve the small rural counties up because they have to be in a single district by law.  As a result, you can't simply make every rural district bigger without encroaching on the suburbs which aren't as reliably Republican anymore.

Actually, my county is divided between two different US Congressional Districts.  

[kevwun 15653]

That is based on the population of the County and the requirements change depending on it's size.  Small counties have to be in a single district, but above that it gets complicated.

 

1. a county with sufficient population for exactly one district must be formed into a single district;

2. a county with a population smaller than the population needed for a whole district must be kept whole and combined with one or more contiguous counties to form a district;

3. a county that has sufficient population for two or more whole districts must be divided into that number of districts, with no district extending into another county; and

4. each county with a population sufficient for one or more whole districts plus a fraction of another district must be divided into that many whole districts, with the excess population added to one or more contiguous counties to form an additional district.

https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov/reqs

Edited August 17, 2021 by kevwun

[Huckleberry 32704]

The above is for the Texas House, not the Texas districts for the US House.

[kevwun 15653]

You are correct.  That would help explain why it's such a shitshow here.  The legislature doesn't have to follow any guidelines for Congressional districts.