2022 House Elections

[SydneyCarton 49506]

1 hour ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Cooper is a kick ass governor. NC hamstrings the gub so much it's not funny, but deft use of executive orders allows him to get by.

I figure one more cycle until NC can un-gerrymander. It's going to skip purple and go straight to blue when that happens.

That's good news, as North Carolina is currently my clubhouse leader for retirement spots. 

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That's good news, as North Carolina is currently my clubhouse leader for retirement spots. 

I love being two hours from the beach and two hours from the mountains. I also love having electricity in the middle of winter.

[Macanudo 13327]

30 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That's good news, as North Carolina is currently my clubhouse leader for retirement spots. 

Plus, you can marry 14 year olds.

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

35 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Plus, you can marry 14 year olds.

Why would I want to marry 14 of them? 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Nope.  NC is a state where the governor has no say in redistricting.  Can't even veto maps.

The fallback is the NC Supreme Court - even though the Chief Justice lost in 2020 (by less than 500 votes), Dems do still have a 4-3 majority on the court. 

The flipside is Wisconsin, where Evers can veto maps but the GOP has a 4-3 majority.  But one of the GOP justices has been very liberal when it comes to voting rights.  

Does Evers really have some say in redistricting?  Wisconsin is the worst gerrymander out of them all. I hope they can make that map a little more competitive.

I saw a projection recently where I think the worst North Carolina can draw is a 10 R - 4 D map. I mean yeah it sucks, but it only is a +2 gain for them and the New York map would hopefully cancel out North Carolina and Georgia while hopefully Illinois can cancel out Florida and maybe one Texas loss. 

[Js1 87187]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Does Evers really have some say in redistricting?  Wisconsin is the worst gerrymander out of them all. I hope they can make that map a little more competitive.

I saw a projection recently where I think the worst North Carolina can draw is a 10 R - 4 D map. I mean yeah it sucks, but it only is a +2 gain for them and the New York map would hopefully cancel out North Carolina and Georgia while hopefully Illinois can cancel out Florida and maybe one Texas loss. 

Evers has veto over the maps and the Wisky GOP does not have the majorities to override it.  The courts will draw the maps, most likely.  Unlikely the House map will be any better than 5R-3D because Dems really are clustered in Milwaukee and Madison (so..status quo), BUT the state maps should be far far better than they are now. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by Js1

[GopherRock 1773]

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Evers has veto over the maps and the Wisky GOP does not have the majorities to override it.  The courts will draw the maps, most likely.  Unlikely the House map will be any better than 5R-3D because Dems really are clustered in Milwaukee and Madison (so..status quo), BUT the state maps should be far far better than they are now. 

This is the biggest thing WRT Evers' veto in Wisconsin. There's a good chance that the next maps of the Legislature will not produce 64 Republican Assembly seats with 45% of the vote.

[Voldemort86 2259]

I’m worried about how bad Ohio and Iowa will gerrymander. Ohio is losing a seat, but could they make sure the dems lose it? Could Iowa draw 4 Trump districts and make the state house races non competitive?
 

both states are roughly 60/40 Republican, but they control the legislature, governorship, and all the other crap so we might see something crazy like 4 Iowa house members and a 10 R- 3 D map in Ohio.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Do the democrats gain anything by having democrat governors in lousiana and Kentucky in regard to redistricting?

[Ghost of LL 15698]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m worried about how bad Ohio and Iowa will gerrymander. Ohio is losing a seat, but could they make sure the dems lose it? Could Iowa draw 4 Trump districts and make the state house races non competitive?
 

both states are roughly 60/40 Republican, but they control the legislature, governorship, and all the other crap so we might see something crazy like 4 Iowa house members and a 10 R- 3 D map in Ohio.

Isn't Iowa done by a nonpartisan commission?

[Js1 87187]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Do the democrats gain anything by having democrat governors in lousiana and Kentucky in regard to redistricting?

JBE can veto in Louisiana.  Not sure they will override - they failed to do it twice this year with defections. 

Beshear can veto, but GOP has to votes to override.  My understanding is Kentucky may end up status quo - they don't seem like they have the appetite to break up Louisville and end up potentially dummymandering themselves later.   Same thing in Tennessee, they don't seem to want to break up Nashville and Memphis and end up fucked later on.  

Edited August 18, 2021 by Js1

[Js1 87187]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Isn't Iowa done by a nonpartisan commission?

There's definitely a commission.  They also have really interesting rules - can't break up counties, continuity of districts (the whole district is connected) and keeping communities of interest.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There's definitely a commission.  They also have really interesting rules - can't break up counties, continuity of districts (the whole district is connected) and keeping communities of interest.  

In theory Iowa could have a 2-2 map, more likely it will be 3-1 for the GOP

[Bateshorn 9991]

51 minutes ago, Js1 said:

JBE can veto in Louisiana.  Not sure they will override - they failed to do it twice this year with defections. 

Beshear can veto, but GOP has to votes to override.  My understanding is Kentucky may end up status quo - they don't seem like they have the appetite to break up Louisville and end up potentially dummymandering themselves later.   Same thing in Tennessee, they don't seem to want to break up Nashville and Memphis and end up fucked later on.  

Can confirm. McConnell has told the delegation to keep the status qou.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

JBE can veto in Louisiana.  Not sure they will override - they failed to do it twice this year with defections. 

Beshear can veto, but GOP has to votes to override.  My understanding is Kentucky may end up status quo - they don't seem like they have the appetite to break up Louisville and end up potentially dummymandering themselves later.   Same thing in Tennessee, they don't seem to want to break up Nashville and Memphis and end up fucked later on.  

Louisiana should be 4-2 R

Kentucky should be 5-1 R

Anything worse than that is bullshit. I think the fairest way to approach gerrymandering is to have the number of house seats generally reflect the partisan makeup of the state.

[Js1 87187]

53 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Louisiana should be 4-2 R

Kentucky should be 5-1 R

Anything worse than that is bullshit. I think the fairest way to approach gerrymandering is to have the number of house seats generally reflect the partisan makeup of the state.

JBE will likely push for a second VRA district.  Whether he gets one or not is a different story. 

And yes, but then you'd expect Texas to be something like 22-17.  Fat fucking chance.  They will continue to try and gerrymander as if the GOP is getting 65% of the vote. 

[StassneyHorn 6775]

Not sure if you guys remember this cat, but I like following his early voting and data analysis. Michael McDonald, teaches at Florida, has the Election Project for elections and Mapping Project for redistricting. Has a github where he houses alot of his info and I viewed it like crazy in the 2020 early voting/absentee ballot accumulation.

 

Also, this fuckin nerd is one of those Gen Z guys who does alot of fun hypotheticals with elections/redistricting and brings the ruckus with GIS mapping. Goes through alot of hypotheticals

 

Edited August 18, 2021 by StassneyHorn

[GopherRock 1773]

21 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m worried about how bad Ohio and Iowa will gerrymander. Ohio is losing a seat, but could they make sure the dems lose it? Could Iowa draw 4 Trump districts and make the state house races non competitive?
 

both states are roughly 60/40 Republican, but they control the legislature, governorship, and all the other crap so we might see something crazy like 4 Iowa house members and a 10 R- 3 D map in Ohio.

WRT Ohio: Their House map is already 13-3 GOP, which is probably as much as can be wrung out of the state. Ohio has lost a seat. On top of that, an independent commission will be drawing the 2022-24 House maps. I'm not expecting bloodletting, but could the GOP lose 1 or 2 seats? Enough to keep control of the chamber? Sure.

[Js1 87187]

8 hours ago, GopherRock said:

WRT Ohio: Their House map is already 13-3 GOP, which is probably as much as can be wrung out of the state. Ohio has lost a seat. On top of that, an independent commission will be drawing the 2022-24 House maps. I'm not expecting bloodletting, but could the GOP lose 1 or 2 seats? Enough to keep control of the chamber? Sure.

Thread 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

54 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Thread 

 

I’m really not expecting much from Ohio to be honest. I’m hoping they do 11-4 R or 10-5 R and call it a day, but those fuckers have idiots like Jim Jordan calling the shots so I wouldn’t be surprised if they did the 13-2 R and it backfired on them in later cycles. 
 

[cactusflinthead 27627]

As good a spot as any.

This just in. People don't hate on you nearly as much if you are in front of them.

The upshot being old fashioned door knocking works.

[Js1 87187]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’m really not expecting much from Ohio to be honest. I’m hoping they do 11-4 R or 10-5 R and call it a day, but those fuckers have idiots like Jim Jordan calling the shots so I wouldn’t be surprised if they did the 13-2 R and it backfired on them in later cycles. 
 

Sounds like the moderate OH SC could strike down 13-2 easily. 9-6 is a pipe dream but 10-5 is still 1 more seat we didn’t have before with the 12-4 map and cuts the GOP advantage there from +8 to +5. 3 they have to make up elsewhere 

[Jive Turkey 13006]

This is not encouraging. 

 

[Js1 87187]

Not getting it back for 14 years? That’s so doubtful. 

[berlinerbaer 692]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not getting it back for 14 years? That’s so doubtful. 

Unified government is rare. The Rs had it from 2003-2007 only because 9/11 fallout made the 2002 midterm atypically good for the party in the WH. That was the first time either party had it for more than two years since 1981. Before that, you need to go back to the 60s. So every 20 years or so is the norm, not every decade like we've become accustomed.

The Dems need to take advantage of the next 15 months or FAAFO.

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

It’s definitely being squandered right now. 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

I find G Elliot to be a bit fart sniffery.  Nate Cohn was able to fess up to the fact that 2020 polling was a shit show. G Elliot kept trying to find ways to say ACKSHULLY.  It seems like he’s so convinced in the truth and science of what they’re doing that he doesn’t understand they can’t possibly capture all variables.  So he’s the only one I can see posting something like this that ABSOLUTELY has a trillion variables built in. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2036 is way too long. I think he might have a point if he said 2030 or something tho.  Dems are expected to lose the senate in 2024 because of a bad map and maybe a underwhelming presidential candidate. The republicans gerrymanders might hold until 2030, but I’d expect some democrat bounce back in the house before the end of the decade when gerrymanders start to break and republicans show their ass again by giving tax cuts to the rich and trying to repeal Obamacare because they’re idiots and don’t know how to govern.

Edited August 23, 2021 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2259]

Some good news dropped this morning folks!
 

we all know that potty Patrick, indictment Paxton, and hot wheels Abbott would try to get as many democrats purged as possible in redistricting. However, the way the population in Texas is spread out limits the GOP’s ability to make huge gains. The most likely map they come up with is 25 R and 13 D. I highly doubt they could do much worse then that. For reference, the current delegation is 23 R and 13 D.

[Fudge Nuggets 19455]

On 8/16/2021 at 6:48 PM, Js1 said:

@PenelopeWitherspoon

 

I would give up Lobo’s left nut if they could gerrymander Elsie out of a job. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

37 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I would give up Lobo’s left nut if they could gerrymander Elsie out of a job. 

Unfortunately the plan is to give her a safe seat while they axe 5 republicans for a +4 seat gain.

[atomheartbevo 90652]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Some good news dropped this morning folks!
we all know that potty Patrick, indictment Paxton, and hot wheels Abbott would try to get as many democrats purged as possible in redistricting. However, the way the population in Texas is spread out limits the GOP’s ability to make huge gains. The most likely map they come up with is 25 R and 13 D. I highly doubt they could do much worse then that. For reference, the current delegation is 23 R and 13 D.

I saw an article that mentioned the 25/13, but that some of the R districts are going to be spread very thin - similar to Williamson County.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19305]

14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Unfortunately the plan is to give her a safe seat while they axe 5 republicans for a +4 seat gain.

And they are getting rid of the crazy cunt in Staten Island, Nicole Malliotokis or whatever the fuck her name is.

[Voldemort86 2259]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I saw an article that mentioned the 25/13, but that some of the R districts are going to be spread very thin - similar to Williamson County.

Either way, considering Texas is so big, so Republican, and has so many seats, I’d gladly accept a 25-13 R map.  The +4 seat gain from New York could offset the +2 from Texas and a possible +2 from Georgia. I need to check Georgia’s likely map again. Hopefully Illinois could offset at least North Carolina and overall, redistricting might not go as bad as we initially feared.

Edited August 25, 2021 by Voldemort86

[Js1 87187]

10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Either way, considering Texas is so big, so Republican, and has so many seats, I’d gladly accept a 25-13 R map.  The +4 seat gain from New York could offset the +2 from Texas and a possible +2 from Georgia. I need to check Georgia’s likely map again. Hopefully Illinois could offset at least North Carolina and overall, redistricting might not go as bad as we initially feared.

Illinois like 14-3, from 13-5, after they axe Kinzinger and Davis. 

+4 from New York and +3 from Illinois = +7 from those two states alone.  Which is roughly what the initial redistricting gains were for the GOP (7 seats from NC, TX and GA).  And Ohio/Michigan/PA could end up netting Dems seats as well. 

This is not going to be an awful redistricting decade for Dems.  At all.  

Edited August 25, 2021 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Illinois like 14-3, from 13-5, after they axe Kinzinger and Davis. 

+4 from New York and +3 from Illinois = +7 from those two states alone.  Which is roughly what the initial redistricting gains were for the GOP (7 seats from NC, TX and GA).  And Ohio/Michigan/PA could end up netting Dems seats as well. 

This is not going to be an awful redistricting decade for Dems.  At all.  

Shouldn’t we worry about Florida as well? I also wonder if the California map could regress. Supposedly Tennessee is all but certain to be +1 R.

I’ll be real curious to see Ohio because it’s already gerrymandered to hell it can’t get any worse and Wisconsin has to deal with Evers so the map should be more competitive there.

[Js1 87187]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

Shouldn’t we worry about Florida as well? I also wonder if the California map could regress. Supposedly Tennessee is all but certain to be +1 R.

I’ll be real curious to see Ohio because it’s already gerrymandered to hell it can’t get any worse and Wisconsin has to deal with Evers so the map should be more competitive there.

No, I wouldn't worry about California.  It's an independent redistricting, but all the independent members lean Dem.  I'd imagine some of those lucky few from 2020 (Mike Garcia, Young Kim, etc). might be facing some turbulent times ahead. 

Don't count on Wisconsin getting much better than 5-3.  Dems are packed in Milwaukee and Madison.  

Florida is a wildcard.

[Bateshorn 9991]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Illinois like 14-3, from 13-5, after they axe Kinzinger and Davis. 

+4 from New York and +3 from Illinois = +7 from those two states alone.  Which is roughly what the initial redistricting gains were for the GOP (7 seats from NC, TX and GA).  And Ohio/Michigan/PA could end up netting Dems seats as well. 

This is not going to be an awful redistricting decade for Dems.  At all.  

Andy Harris is gonna lose his seat as well, so +1 from MD. 

[Js1 87187]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Andy Harris is gonna lose his seat as well, so +1 from MD. 

I need New Mexico to go 3-0 as well.  Colorado is still working on maps (I think the 2nd set of proposed maps should be out soon) but that looks like it'll be +1 as well. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

NM should go all out and go 3-0. Dems in that state don’t play around. 

[Js1 87187]

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

NM should go all out and go 3-0. Dems in that state don’t play around. 

NY - +4 likely
Illinois - +3 likely
NM, CO, MD - +3 likely (combined)

TX - -2 likely
GA - -1 likely

FL - no idea how aggressive they will go, maybe +2 to +3 for the GOP
OH - probably -1 to -2 for the GOP
NC - probably +1-2 for the GOP
Montana - TBD (depending on how they draw the new district, could be +1 for the Dems)
CA - TBD, though I think could be -1 or -2 for the GOP
LA - I know the governor is going to push for a second VRA district, but probably not likely
Utah - could end up 3-1 (+1 for the Dems)
Arizona - unsure
Iowa - may try for 4-0, but 3-1 is more likely
Kansas - they may try to draw out Sharice Davis, but could get vetoed
West Virginia - the GOP is losing one regardless

PA/MI - should have some better maps by virtue of Dem governors this time around

Maine - no change
TN/KY - no change
Wisconsin - likely no change, MAYBE +1 for Dems (5-3 versus 6-2)
 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Js1

[Voldemort86 2259]

56 minutes ago, Js1 said:

NY - +4 likely
Illinois - +3 likely
NM, CO, MD - +3 likely (combined)

TX - -2 likely
GA - -1 likely

FL - no idea how aggressive they will go, maybe +2 to +3 for the GOP
OH - probably -1 to -2 for the GOP
NC - probably +1-2 for the GOP
Montana - TBD (depending on how they draw the new district, could be +1 for the Dems)
CA - TBD, though I think could be -1 or -2 for the GOP
LA - I know the governor is going to push for a second VRA district, but probably not likely
Utah - could end up 3-1 (+1 for the Dems)
Arizona - unsure
Iowa - may try for 4-0, but 3-1 is more likely
Kansas - they may try to draw out Sharice Davis, but could get vetoed
West Virginia - the GOP is losing one regardless

PA/MI - should have some better maps by virtue of Dem governors this time around

Maine - no change
TN/KY - no change
Wisconsin - likely no change, MAYBE +1 for Dems (5-3 versus 6-2)
 

Tennessee will lose one of their 2 dems. Iowa will be 3-1 gop. Utah will be 4-0 gop. Lousiana will probably tell edwards to fuck off.

[berlinerbaer 692]

I'm a huge math and geography fan too, fellas, but I don't think that is going to spell trouble for Democrats in 2022. My interest is instead on the polls, which look increasingly "midterm-like" for the Democrats.

If the generic ballot is neutral or even D+2 or so, then the fairest maps in the world will still hand the GOP the House next cycle.

[Js1 87187]

D+3 in 2020 still kept the House with the Dems after a decade of shitty maps.  TBD on what kind of environment is needed with much better maps 

[Voldemort86 2259]

23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

D+3 in 2020 still kept the House with the Dems after a decade of shitty maps.  TBD on what kind of environment is needed with much better maps 

I highly doubt Afghanistan will be on voters minds by the time the 2022 election rolls around. If Biden can corral this delta variant and the infrastructure bills pass, then we might still be able to have a decent mid term.  I still would bet for us to hold onto the senate as it stands today, but the house is looking dicey.

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

If Rs take the house in 2022, get ready for 2 years of Benghazi 2: Electric Boogaloo based on the Afghanistan withdrawal. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

NY - +4 likely
Illinois - +3 likely
NM, CO, MD - +3 likely (combined)

TX - -2 likely
GA - -1 likely

FL - no idea how aggressive they will go, maybe +2 to +3 for the GOP
OH - probably -1 to -2 for the GOP
NC - probably +1-2 for the GOP
Montana - TBD (depending on how they draw the new district, could be +1 for the Dems)
CA - TBD, though I think could be -1 or -2 for the GOP
LA - I know the governor is going to push for a second VRA district, but probably not likely
Utah - could end up 3-1 (+1 for the Dems)
Arizona - unsure
Iowa - may try for 4-0, but 3-1 is more likely
Kansas - they may try to draw out Sharice Davis, but could get vetoed
West Virginia - the GOP is losing one regardless

PA/MI - should have some better maps by virtue of Dem governors this time around

Maine - no change
TN/KY - no change
Wisconsin - likely no change, MAYBE +1 for Dems (5-3 versus 6-2)
 

Republicans threw a fit because our commission drew a 5-4 map, could easily see the commission swinging AZ-6 towards us for 6-3

[berlinerbaer 692]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

D+3 in 2020 still kept the House with the Dems after a decade of shitty maps.  TBD on what kind of environment is needed with much better maps 

The maps in 2022 will be much better than they were in 2012, yes, but will they be better than in 2020? 

[Voldemort86 2259]

I know that in both Kansas and Kentucky there’s a ton of political pressure to not draw out the only democrat in the state. I think they will survive in both states.

[brakeman 28751]