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2022 House Elections

Pancho

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Js1

Js1 85112

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Indiana Rs threw Dems a bone - likely keeping the map 7-2 R.  Packed instead of cracked.  IN-05 gets a little more red  (was R+4 in 2020) and could potentially be competitive by the end of the decade

Indiana Dems have to approve this map every day and twice on Sunday.  

 

 

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Js1
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And for @Voldemort86, I will try to keep a running tab on what we have going on so far. Voted upon and done All single member states have no redistricting - WY, ND, SD, DE, VT, AK (4 R, 2 D

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Js1

Js1 85112

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1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'm gonna have to take your word for it.

In a red state with a GOP trifecta with no seats gained or lost, the status quo for Congressional maps is about all Dems can ask for.  It's 7-2 now, this map keeps it 7-2.  The more maps that stay status quo (Kentucky, hopefully Tennessee, Indiana, Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana), the less places the GOP has to make up ground to offset California, New York, Illinois, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado and Maryland + fairer maps in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

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Js1

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19 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/14/nyregion/congress-redistricting-ny.html

Sounds like NY Dems are going to play hard ball.

The commission released 2 maps, one “benefiting” each side, because they couldn’t agree.  Both maps suck. Glad Hochul is fully aboard the “fuck the NY GOP delegation” train 

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Bateshorn

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20 hours ago, Js1 said:

In a red state with a GOP trifecta with no seats gained or lost, the status quo for Congressional maps is about all Dems can ask for.  It's 7-2 now, this map keeps it 7-2.  The more maps that stay status quo (Kentucky, hopefully Tennessee, Indiana, Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana), the less places the GOP has to make up ground to offset California, New York, Illinois, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado and Maryland + fairer maps in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

Yeah, the IN GOP took a look at demographics and decided to avoid dummymandering  them selves.  Good for the Dems and avoids the prospect of creating 2 GOP seats in 2022 that they will lose in 2026.  

Edited by Bateshorn
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Js1

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The preliminary Iowa map came out today from the commission.  It's 3-1 on paper, but more like 2-2 (IA-03 is currently represented by a Dem and IA-01 is currently GOP). 

IA-1: Dem (51-45)
IA-2: GOP (53-43)
IA-3: tossup (49-47 R)
IA-4: GOP (64-33)

I'm sure the Iowa GOP will want to kill it.  If the Iowa GOP wants to gerrymander and re-draw, they have vote down the commission maps 3 separate times. They meet October 1 to start the special session on approving maps. 

Ashley Hinson gets drawn into a Biden +9 district and could be DOA.  Cindy Axne (IA-03) gets a slightly friendlier district - goes from Trump +0.2 to Biden +0.2.  Miller-Meeks gets a friendlier IA-02. 

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Js1

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It LOOKS like if it were the case that the GOP may only net 1-2 seats from redistricting alone, Dems could potentially hold the House in a D+1-2 environment.  Versus needing to be more like D+3-4 or higher. 

Edited by Js1
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Apparently he thought he would win and was outraising his Trump challenger.  Maybe he knew this district would be kaput and he’d have to run against another R

There's been some rumbling about some Republicans (you know, RINOs) are looking to duck out of the next election or two if Trump is involved as well as if the MAGA crowd goes all in on the lunacy, and then they will come out in 2026/2028 saying "hey, look, we weren't with those idiots in '22 and '24, so give us a chance!"

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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On 9/14/2021 at 12:15 PM, Js1 said:

Indiana Rs threw Dems a bone - likely keeping the map 7-2 R.  Packed instead of cracked.  IN-05 gets a little more red  (was R+4 in 2020) and could potentially be competitive by the end of the decade

Indiana Dems have to approve this map every day and twice on Sunday.  

 

 

Indiana GOP is being smart and realizing that redistricting is a 10 year process. By going for the 8-1 map now, they probably would have to deal with several more seats than they’d like being vulnerable in the last 5 years or so of the decade. That’s the big question aggressive republicans will have to be asking themselves.

Tennessee is probably the only red state where it makes sense for them to be as aggressive as possible because I think it could backfire on them in a lot of other states like Kansas, Missouri, and Indiana later on.

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Js1

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12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There's been some rumbling about some Republicans (you know, RINOs) are looking to duck out of the next election or two if Trump is involved as well as if the MAGA crowd goes all in on the lunacy, and then they will come out in 2026/2028 saying "hey, look, we weren't with those idiots in '22 and '24, so give us a chance!"

Fascism doesn’t just go away on its own. They’re writing their own failed history 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33843

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There's been some rumbling about some Republicans (you know, RINOs) are looking to duck out of the next election or two if Trump is involved as well as if the MAGA crowd goes all in on the lunacy, and then they will come out in 2026/2028 saying "hey, look, we weren't with those idiots in '22 and '24, so give us a chance!"

oh how I wish this were true. the country will have already moved past them they'll never get back on the train. but alas, tis a fantasy

edit: because of what Js1 just said

Edited by Longhorn_Fan68
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TheStoicPaisano

TheStoicPaisano 9904

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12 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yeah this sucks a bit as Gonzalez has the perfect background between OSU, first round pick and Stanford b-school. No reason why Shaker Heights (Miller, presumably the R nominee now?) & Ignatius grads should be fighting for a district down in Akron, but this seems like a win for the MAGAts on a bigger scale.

Also, Ohio Ds may have a shallower bench than TX.

Edited by TheStoicPaisano
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14522

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Our he just realized dealing with the base in Ohio at town halls and such is a fucking beating.  Between that and the travel and being surrounded by dickheads in the House, he could easily have a better life doing something else.

If I were an elected Republican Congressmen going to Republican base events, I'd jump off the roof of a tall building and slit my throat on the way down.

Hard pass.

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Js1

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8 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Nebraska map out of committee this week. After Biden picking up NE-2, Republicans will split of a section of Douglas County (Omaha) into NE-1 (Lincoln’s district) while adding a rural county to balance it.

NE-2 still Biden +6 or so BUT it needs 33 votes to pass and there’s only 32 GOP votes in the lege. So maybe, maybe not. 

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Js1

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Honestly, the GOP only getting an additional 2 seats out of a new map is a huge win.  That map is also fucking hideous. 

I'm curious how the lawsuit will go re: only being able to draw maps in a regular session.  The goal is to get the courts to draw the 2022 maps, then win back some seats and have a more favorable re-draw in 2023.  But who knows. 

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Voldemort86

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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Honestly, the GOP only getting an additional 2 seats out of a new map is a huge win.  That map is also fucking hideous. 

I'm curious how the lawsuit will go re: only being able to draw maps in a regular session.  The goal is to get the courts to draw the 2022 maps, then win back some seats and have a more favorable re-draw in 2023.  But who knows. 

I agree. Could’ve gone much worse. I just hope our 13 Texas democrats are in pretty safe / reliable districts. Let Illinois / New York / and maybe California draw maps that offset republicans 2 gains in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.

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atomheartbevo

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8 hours ago, Js1 said:

I'm curious how the lawsuit will go re: only being able to draw maps in a regular session.  The goal is to get the courts to draw the 2022 maps, then win back some seats and have a more favorable re-draw in 2023.  But who knows. 

I'm more curious how they reconcile the fact that a big driver of the additional growth are minorities, but the redistricting is not reflecting that.

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JimmyJames

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4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I agree. Could’ve gone much worse. I just hope our 13 Texas democrats are in pretty safe / reliable districts. Let Illinois / New York / and maybe California draw maps that offset republicans 2 gains in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.

I’m no expert but the 13 dem seats looks pretty damn safe to me.

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wildcat09

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On 9/20/2021 at 6:23 PM, atomheartbevo said:

They may not, but the DOJ/etc. will.

Still, when all is said and done, there will be R districts in that map that will be weak come '22 and '24.

The DOJ won't when there's a Republican president and even when there's a Democratic president, SCOTUS won't give a shit.

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Jive Turkey

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3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Great add..she'll lose by 10 pts. 

hopefully she can keep it to single digits.  should be interesting to see how Madison attacks her.

About Beach-Ferrara

Raised in Chapel Hill, Beach-Ferrara is a minister in the United Church of Christ and the founding executive director of the Campaign for Southern Equality. 

The Asheville nonprofit was launched in 2011 and promotes full equality for the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer community in the South. It played a pivotal role in the legalization of marriage under the leadership of Beach-Ferrara, who is the county's first openly gay commissioner.

Beach-Ferrara earned a bachelor's degree in English from Brown University. She received a Master of Fine Arts from Warren Wilson College and her Master of Divinity degree from Harvard Divinity School.

She and her wife, attorney Meghann Burke, have three children.

https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2019/09/18/jasmine-beach-ferrara-running-again-buncombe-county-commissioner/2361972001/

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OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys

OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059

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7 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

hopefully she can keep it to single digits.  should be interesting to see how Madison attacks her.

About Beach-Ferrara

Raised in Chapel Hill, Beach-Ferrara is a minister in the United Church of Christ and the founding executive director of the Campaign for Southern Equality. 

The Asheville nonprofit was launched in 2011 and promotes full equality for the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer community in the South. It played a pivotal role in the legalization of marriage under the leadership of Beach-Ferrara, who is the county's first openly gay commissioner.

Beach-Ferrara earned a bachelor's degree in English from Brown University. She received a Master of Fine Arts from Warren Wilson College and her Master of Divinity degree from Harvard Divinity School.

She and her wife, attorney Meghann Burke, have three children.

https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2019/09/18/jasmine-beach-ferrara-running-again-buncombe-county-commissioner/2361972001/

Yeah that a bio that screams for a Madison Cawthorn-electing district to eat up. 

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Js1

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On 9/20/2021 at 5:49 PM, JimmyJames said:

I’m no expert but the 13 dem seats looks pretty damn safe to me.

Yeah, the urban and suburban growth meant the GOP can't really fuck with their seats.  They made the Dem seats safer (and gave Austin the hyper blue seat) to give themselves 2 more GOP seats.  

Texas was already so fucking gerrymandered, it was nearly impossible to cut the Dems down from the 13 seats they already had. 

Republicans got 53% of the House vote in 2020.  This map gives the GOP 66% of the seats.  Fucking travishamockery.

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Js1

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Also unlikely to happen, but similar lawsuits in VA and NC led to majority black districts in the 4th Circuit's jurisdiction being unpacked for fairness.  

Funny enough, Alabama can also be drawn to unpack AL-07 into AL-07 and AL-02 that would be Dem.  Louisiana as well - LA-02 can be unpacked into LA-02 (NOLA) and LA-06 (Baton Rouge) that would be 2 Dem districts.  I know JBE is pushing for this in Louisiana's redraw

Would this happen? Not likely.  But SC, LA and AL adding +3 to the Dems via unpacking their single majority-black districts would be disastrous for the GOP.

I'd keep an eye on the SC one, since the Fourth Circuit already ruled in favor of unpacking in NC and VA. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27467

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some upsetting/expected reporting out of Reuters:

Reuters Special Report: Backers of Trump's false fraud claims seek to control next elections

Quote

Sept 22 (Reuters) - One leading candidate seeking to become Georgia’s chief elections official, Republican Jody Hice, is a Congressman who voted to overturn Democrat Joe Biden's 2020 presidential win in the hours after the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol. Hice had posted on social media earlier that day: “This is our 1776 moment,” referencing the American Revolution.

In Arizona, the contenders for the elections-chief office, secretary of state, include Republican state lawmaker Mark Finchem, who attended the ‘Stop the Steal’ rally before the deadly insurrection and spoke at a similar gathering the previous day. In Nevada, one strong Republican candidate for elections chief is Jim Marchant, who unsuccessfully sued to have his own defeat in a 2020 congressional race reversed based on unfounded voter-fraud claims.

The three candidates are part of a wider group of Republican secretary-of-state contenders in America’s swing states who have embraced former President Donald Trump's false claims that he lost a “rigged” election. Their candidacies have alarmed Democrats and voting-rights groups, who fear that the politicians who tried hardest to undermine Americans’ faith in elections last year may soon be the ones running them - or deciding them, in future contested votes.

Jena Griswold, chair of the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State and Colorado's top elections official, said the secretary-of-state races reflect a much broader exploitation of phony voter-fraud claims by Republicans seeking all levels of elected office.

 

"That is ‘code red’ for democracy," she said in an interview.

Secretary-of-state candidates face primary elections next spring and summer and general elections on Nov. 8, 2022, along with the midterm congressional contests.

Reuters interviewed nine of the 15 declared Republican candidates for secretary of state in five battleground states -- Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada -- and reviewed public statements by all of the candidates. Ten of the 15 have either declared that the 2020 election was stolen or called for their state’s results to be invalidated or further investigated.

Only two of the nine candidates Reuters interviewed said that Biden won the election.

 

The group of 15 includes Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state and the only incumbent Republican in the five battleground states who is seeking re-election. Raffensperger has consistently rejected Trump’s stolen-election allegations in the face of intense pressure from many fellow Republicans to overturn Biden’s win in the state.

Nearly all of the Republican contenders have stressed a need to curb mail-in voting, to limit ballot drop boxes and to take other steps to curtail ballot access. A majority said they backed a Republican push for more audits or other investigations of the 2020 vote, despite dozens of audits, recounts and court rulings that confirmed Biden’s victory.

Elections are about to get even more ratfucky. Thanks, republicans and bothsiders.

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Js1

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On 9/18/2021 at 8:52 PM, Tuco said:

The initial plan died in filibuster Friday. Trump did relatively poorly in NE2 in 2020. The Republican Congressman won by 5. This map takes a Dem out of contention for a bit.

A compromise map passed 36-10 - NE-2 goes from Biden +7 to Biden +6 (Douglas County kept whole, but added in Saunders County). 

It's basically good enough. 

Edited by Js1
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