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2022 House Elections

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Tuco

Tuco 5094

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Posted
19 hours ago, Js1 said:

A compromise map passed 36-10 - NE-2 goes from Biden +7 to Biden +6 (Douglas County kept whole, but added in Saunders County). 

It's basically good enough. 

1. The Trump-Biden vote is an anomaly.  The current NE-2 is definitely Republican.  In the Congressional race, the Republican incumbent won by 4, and the only time a D won the seat in the last 20 years is when a tea-party 3rd part candidate split the R vote in 2014.  I think the district is currently listed as R+4, and I'm betting this will likely take it to R+6.  It turns an R lean into a likely, or maybe even a safe. 

2. I hate this notion that a fair compromise is to hold serve, or slightly lose.  The population trends should take bias the district blue over time.  Instead, every ten years a Republican Unicameral gerrymanders the district to preserve the status quo from the previous gerrymandering.  The census shows the urban population in the district was underrepresented in 2020.  The R+4 should have been more like an R+2 (just as a hypothetical). Instead of drawing the lines to pull back from the the rural areas, this map cuts out a central corridor of the metro area, and adds in a Saunders County, which is due north of Lincoln.  It is absolute fuckery, and is justified as preserving the previous decades fuckery.  

I get it that you are not claiming this to be a fair compromise, just an acceptable one. 

FWIW, it hasn't completely passed yet, just the first round of votes.  

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Js1
Js1

And for @Voldemort86, I will try to keep a running tab on what we have going on so far. Voted upon and done All single member states have no redistricting - WY, ND, SD, DE, VT, AK (4 R, 2 D

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Js1

Js1 87187

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Posted (edited)

Texas House maps could come out today.  As has been mentioned, they'll likely add 1 Austin-area blue seat and then turn Allred and Fletcher's seats into vote sinks for D votes to protect their suburban members.  Crenshaw, Nehls, Taylor, Ellzey, Roy, McCaul and Van Duyne will be safer in the short term but potentially screwed long term. 

As Dave Wasserman points out, Texas Republicans HAVE to draw a new Dem seat in Austin.  There's nowhere in the country where Dems have to draw new GOP seats.  Further proof of a) suburban and urban growth in the new census data was the best thing to happen to Dems in 2021 since Ossoff and Warnock won; b) Dems in a much better position than they were in 2010 for redrawing; c) GOP is going to get crushed by the end of the decade if they can't reverse the suburban blue trend. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

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2 new seats are in Austin and Houston.  McCaul loses his portion of Harris County. 

DFW and Houston are UGLY. 

TX-23 picked up parts of El Paso and Bexar counties.  Could make this seat even more competitive. 

Edited by Js1
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OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys

OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas House maps could come out today.  As has been mentioned, they'll likely add 1 Austin-area blue seat and then turn Allred and Fletcher's seats into vote sinks for D votes to protect their suburban members.  Crenshaw, Nehls, Taylor, Ellzey, Roy, McCaul and Van Duyne will be safer in the short term but potentially screwed long term. 

As Dave Wasserman points out, Texas Republicans HAVE to draw a new Dem seat in Austin.  There's nowhere in the country where Dems have to draw new GOP seats.  Further proof of a) suburban and urban growth in the new census data was the best thing to happen to Dems in 2021 since Ossoff and Warnock won; b) Dems in a much better position than they were in 2010 for redrawing; c) GOP is going to get crushed by the end of the decade if they can't reverse the suburban blue trend. 

Trump lagged other R candidates throughout the state.  I was of the opinion the Trumps retardedness was going to show up as a temporary blip in suburban Texas and they’d all go back red when he’s gone, but the continued stupid messaging they do that basically is of Trump level inanity might end up really solidifying blue suburbia.  

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Js1

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Just now, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

Trump lagged other R candidates throughout the state.  I was of the opinion the Trumps retardedness was going to show up as a temporary blip in suburban Texas and they’d all go back red when he’s gone, but the continued stupid messaging they do that basically is of Trump level inanity might end up really solidifying blue suburbia.  

The GOP and a loud minority might love the anti-mask/anti-vax message, but the highly educated and rapidly diversifying suburbs do not.  GOP is going all in on it for 2022. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Travis/CenTex actually looks less insane than usual.  That's something.  

Holy fucking shit with District 33 in Dallas/Tarrant.  Really threading the needle to make sure Veasey doesn't accidentally pick up any white people?  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Is there closer-up version anywhere?  I can't find one.  Even with that "blow-up" of Travis County, I can't tell where we'd get our home address.  We're "about" where McCaul, the new 37, and Chip Roy all meet.  All I know is Roger Williams will no longer be my Representative.  

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Js1

Js1 87187

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1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Is there closer-up version anywhere?  I can't find one.  Even with that "blow-up" of Travis County, I can't tell where we'd get our home address.  We're "about" where McCaul, the new 37, and Chip Roy all meet.  All I know is Roger Williams will no longer be my Representative.  

Roger Williams effectively got drawn out of CenTex.  I would wait, the nerds will plug the map into DRA soon enough to get the PVIs and it'll be easier to search. 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19587

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3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Is there closer-up version anywhere?  I can't find one.  Even with that "blow-up" of Travis County, I can't tell where we'd get our home address.  We're "about" where McCaul, the new 37, and Chip Roy all meet.  All I know is Roger Williams will no longer be my Representative.  

Trying to figure out the same thing for TX31. Hard to tell without the road overlays. It looks like they shored up Carter quite a bit by adding all of Burnet county and carving a little bit of RR and CP into 37...but I'll have to wait for the closeups. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

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Looks like Chip Roy got left to hang.  He still retains a big chunk of Travis County.  GOP Winners are Crenshaw, McCaul (lost his Harris County portions), Nehls (lost D portions of his Fort Bend district to Fletcher), Williams (no more Austin) and Carter. 

Fletcher and Allred with mega-safe districts. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Yeah McCaul just picked up a huge fundraising tract here in Western Travis County  .not that he needs it

The new one (37) is gonna go D obviously, but it's not as "liberally" drawn as I thought it'd be.  

Doggett's district continues to crack me up.  How they get it from Hays to Bexar Counties.  When the neighbor behind you is in 15 or 28 and the folks across the street is in 21 and it goes on like that for 50 miles, just one tiny little strip of single-family homes.  Seriously, there's gotta be a rule that a district has to be more than 10 yards wide as its narrowest point.  

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49506

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52 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

 

 

31 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Looks like Chip Roy got left to hang.  He still retains a big chunk of Travis County.  GOP Winners are Crenshaw, McCaul (lost his Harris County portions), Nehls (lost D portions of his Fort Bend district to Fletcher), Williams (no more Austin) and Carter. 

Fletcher and Allred with mega-safe districts. 

It's hard to tell without a map overlay of the cities and streets, but eyeballing it it LOOKS like Dan Crenshaw no longer has a tendril creeping into the loop and might not be my representative anymore. 

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Js1

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

 

It's hard to tell without a map overlay of the cities and streets, but eyeballing it it LOOKS like Dan Crenshaw no longer has a tendril creeping into the loop and might not be my representative anymore. 

The new Harris County district that's pretty much being drawn for Wesley Hunt took away Crenshaw's loop portion and then he was able to pick up some of Montgomery County for a safer district. 

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bolverk

bolverk 30332

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Posted (edited)

Interactive version that lets you zoom in closer. Takes forever to load but it's here.

https://dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Congress/14/PLANC2101

Edit:

If you're in South/SW Austin and live east of 1826, you're in the Austin district. West of that, you're stuck with Chip Roy. Westlake looks to be carved up pretty well with Bee Cave and 360 in the Austin district but Davenport Ranch in District 10 that runs all the way over to Katy. The narrow strip connecting Doggett's Austin to San Antonio district has gotten ridiculously narrower.

Edited by bolverk
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49506

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9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The new Harris County district that's pretty much being drawn for Wesley Hunt took away Crenshaw's loop portion and then he was able to pick up some of Montgomery County for a safer district. 

I mean, does that draw really guarantee a Republican district? We're getting bluer by the day, I feel. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, does that draw really guarantee a Republican district? We're getting bluer by the day, I feel. 

Gotta wait and see what the PVIs tell us when the nerds finish loading it into the software. 

If this is the map, Hunt is 100% running in TX-38 already.  

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Js1

Js1 87187

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I think my sliver of Timbergrove actually got redrawn into Lizzie Fletcher's 7th, actually. 

She's great.  

Looks like, of all my options of where I'll live when I move back to Houston, it's either Sylvia Garcia or Lizzie Fletcher.  Fine with that. 

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sasquatch69

sasquatch69 626

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I realize we're generally in analysis mode, but stepping back, I'm just struck by how utterly alien this is to the concept of actual representation for your region.  All the urban areas (and even some rural) are so carved up that some of these reps won't even know half the areas they're ostensibly representing.   

Edited by sasquatch69
(Yes, I realize this is nothing new. Still just aghast at the ridiculousness of it.)
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49506

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1 minute ago, sasquatch69 said:

I realize we're generally in analysis mode, but stepping back, I'm just struck by how utterly alien this is to the concept of actual representation for your region.  All the urban areas (and even some rural) are so carved up that some of these reps won't even know half the areas they're ostensibly representing.   

It's like some sect of people don't think that politics has anything remotely to do with governing the interests of your constituents. 

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Js1

Js1 87187

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2 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:

I realize we're generally in analysis mode, but stepping back, I'm just struck by how utterly alien this is to the concept of actual representation for your region.  All the urban areas (and even some rural) are so carved up that some of these reps won't even know half the areas they're ostensibly representing.   

53-47 R popular vote in Texas. 65-35 R in seats.

Fucking lame.   But until we disarm everyone from doing it, thank god for NY and IL doing the same. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I'm in the new 37 and avoid Chip Roy by less than a mile.  Whew.  Chip's new district is worse for him.  Combine the new lines with the fact he is a wincing cunt nugget, and 2022 might be crueler to him than cancer.

I'm genuinely surprised at how they drew that one though.  It's not as left-leaning as I would have thought.  I guess they had to dance around McCaul's goofy thing.  

 

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elfenix

elfenix 34752

Posted
Posted

 

29 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:

I realize we're generally in analysis mode, but stepping back, I'm just struck by how utterly alien this is to the concept of actual representation for your region.  All the urban areas (and even some rural) are so carved up that some of these reps won't even know half the areas they're ostensibly representing.   

it's the representatives picking their constituencies rather than the other way around. 

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Gap03

Gap03 3386

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3 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

it's the representatives picking their constituencies rather than the other way around. 

Same shit, different day.  Instead of having my NW Austin vote somehow drowned out by the patriots of Cleburne, my vote will now be drowned out by the fine yokels of North Zulch.  Lovely. 

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elfenix

elfenix 34752

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Same shit, different day.  Instead of having my NW Austin vote somehow drowned out by the patriots of Cleburne, my vote will now be drowned out by the fine yokels of North Zulch.  Lovely. 

sucks living in panama

edit: maybe you're in the buzzard head rather than the isthmus

Edited by elfenix
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bolverk

bolverk 30332

Posted
Posted (edited)

That Wasserman tweet up the page points out the map has no new Hispanic majority district, and he asks if a lawsuit might happen over it.

But, according to the Texas Tribune, it's even worse:

Quote

The racial makeup of the congressional maps is also expected to change as Texas added two new congressional seats based on last decade’s population growth, which was mostly driven by people of color. Based on eligible voters, the current map includes 22 districts with white majorities, eight with Hispanic majorities, one with a Black majority and five that have no majority. The newly proposed map includes 23 districts with white majorities, seven with Hispanic majorities, none with a Black majority and eight that have no majority.

For reference, the new Census shows that Hispanics were responsible for 49.5% of all population growth over the last decade, Asians 15.3%, Blacks 13.9%, Mixed Race 14.2%, and Anglos 4.7%.

Edited by bolverk
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Js1

Js1 87187

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Yes. Proposed 38 is a lot of white oil money.

Yep, they are taking River Oaks out of Fletcher's district and will anchor it in the new TX-38.

The new 7th was something like D+30 in 2020 and the new 38th was like R+18.  

If you just go by 2020 results, the only 3 competitive districts will be TX-15, TX-23, TX-28.  Everything else is going to be D/R+10 or more 

Edited by Js1
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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6775

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They’re first drafts. Usually you go apeshit crazy on first rounds of any negotiation. They’re subdued and it’s telling of how they have no clue what turnout looks like post Trump. 4.5 million was good enough to win statewide from 04-16.  Now, nobody knows what the number needs to be in midterms

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14653

Posted
Posted
Oof--Beth Van Duyne got done no favors with this map.  She's trading fucking Coppell and Carrolton for the Park Cities and Preston Hollow.
That district is currently a Cook PVI of R+2.  That change may not make much of a difference on the PVI.  But it's a veeeery different R+2.

Good. She’s a piece of shit.
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bolverk

bolverk 30332

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:


Good. She’s a piece of shit.

Not being from DFW, I don't really know anything about her than party affiliation which is probably enough to label her as such. Has she done anything extra that we should hate her for?

Edit: Beyond what Voldemort is saying? I need specifics to generate that hate.

Edited by bolverk
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90651

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

So are we really expected to be 24-14 instead of 25-13 with this map?

The GOP might be building this map to last the whole decade and prevent several seats from collapsing on them in the 2026-2030 elections based on population trends.

The GOP would go with 24-14 if it meant not losing the seats you are talking about.

Their map/numbers/geo/demographics people are all looking at things like where subdivisions are being built, where companies are coming in, etc. and they are looking at shit that hasn't even broken ground.

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bluto

bluto 4998

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Posted
Not being from DFW, I don't really know anything about her than party affiliation which is probably enough to label her as such. Has she done anything extra that we should hate her for?
Edit: Beyond what Voldemort is saying? I need specifics to generate that hate.

‘Clock boy’ was her big moment
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