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My Not So Short Story on GME

Eastwood

By Eastwood
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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I wouldn't think about shorting it until official short float info comes out. If share liquidity is still low due to a greater than 100% institutional ownership and a high short float, which is what got us here in the first place, it's still a powder keg that will go off on any positive catalyst. This is a lotto ticket stock until the whole situation unwinds. Anyone betting on either side with everything going on around it outside of the market is gambling.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Captainant
Captainant

Turns out, dumping trillions of dollars of liquidity into a stagnant market leads to stupid shit happening. Who knew!

52-80
52-80

You’re hoping that a guy barely meeting working class threshold throwing almost 2 months of pre-tax income into a single speculative play ... should make a reasonable financial decision.    i t

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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It looks like the final outcome of this GME saga will be: hedge funds who were massively short got kicked in the balls but thanks to other hedge funds bailing them out, they were probably able to open new short positions when the stock was high, so at the end of the day they win. A few reddit warriors will probably be millionaires, while most will lose big. The few redditors who made money will be prosecuted and humiliated, and their money probably taken from them and returned to their rightful owners, the hedge funds, and let that serve them as a lesson to try and fuck with wall street. The end.

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11362

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welp. i'm still holding gme, just for shits and giggles at this point. i've written off the money spent on it. what are the odds this thing ever surpasses even $100 again?

i bought 2 shares at $252, so i've done worse in less time in las vegas. but at this point, looks like the hedge funds won, or at least lost less.

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10403

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11 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

welp. i'm still holding gme, just for shits and giggles at this point. i've written off the money spent on it. what are the odds this thing ever surpasses even $100 again?

i bought 2 shares at $252, so i've done worse in less time in las vegas. but at this point, looks like the hedge funds won, or at least lost less.

Ever? Pretty likely. Within the next couple weeks? Who knows. I'm with Eastwood. They're in a fast growing industry, and they seem to be making a serious effort to transition their business model. If successful, they will be a very big player in the game.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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53 minutes ago, XYZ said:

The few redditors who made money will be prosecuted and humiliated, and their money probably taken from them and returned to their rightful owners, the hedge funds, and let that serve them as a lesson to try and fuck with wall street. The end.

Prosecuted for what?

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 144

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23 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

I believe the most bullish opinion I read was GME could go as high as $60 per share if they are able to successfully implement their recovery strategy 

And that's the happy path scenario.

As I've said before, my opinion and analysis is that GME as a long term bull stock is not based on fundamentals and Ryan Cohen is not a magic silver bullet, though he might be a change agent (the jury is still out on this for me to be honest-- lots of one-hit wonders in this game).

I understand guys like Eastwood think differently, and I don't mean to knock the Kool-Aid out of their hands because they did exploit a weakness and made some life-changing coin and that's awesome and I could be way wrong, but at the end of the day GameStop is a horribly ran company with a stupid business who hit the attention-based economy lottery with becoming a meme stonk and face of a populist uprising. 

That is my opinion, obviously not financial advice (I am profiting heavily off my $65 put option trade) based off of my years as a global SI working with some of the GameStop C-suite and CEO (the same guy on two different occasions).

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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hornbri

hornbri 1391

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On 2/3/2021 at 10:01 AM, 52-80 said:

13M @ 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate is 520k a year.  Dude doesn't have to work a day for the rest of his life without even touching the principal.  I wouldn't sell either, the public might haunt him down.

Poor guy is going to have to pay tax as ordinary income since it is short term so he is going to net more like 7.5M. Hope he can live off 300k a year (doesn't even get to be surly 1%)

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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20 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:


Some bullshit? Deepfuckingvalue is under investigation now

For having a potential conflict of interest between his last job and the posts/videos he was making. I don't think it has anything to do with the positions themselves that he took. And he's just one actor. I'm guessing there are plenty more that made similar amounts - we'll see if they come under fire or not. 

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 144

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The Wall Street Journal came through in a big way with this story about Senvest Management LLC, a (now) $2.4 billion equity hedge fund that made almost $700 million on GameStop. Their process for deciding how to buy GameStop was sort of boring and normal and pre-nonsense: They got interested in the stock after hearing “a presentation from the new GameStop chief executive at a consumer investment conference in January 2020,” did research, “spoke with management, sussed out competitors and noted the involvement of activists in the stock.” It took them until September to start buying, and “by the end of October, Senvest owned more than 5% of the company, paying under $10 a share for the bulk of the stock.” 

Their process for deciding how to sell GameStop, however, really rose to the weird occasion:

After the market’s close on Jan. 26, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted “GameStonk!!” a rallying cry to users of Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, who had put their support behind GameStop.

Senvest, which had slowly been trimming its position, decided to get out completely.

“Given what was going on, it was hard to imagine it getting crazier,” Mr. Mashaal said.

That implies that they got out mostly on Jan. 27, when GameStop closed at its all-time high. They got into this stock based on fundamental research conducted over months; they called the top perfectly based on an Elon Musk tweet. 

Honestly I am tearing up a little? These guys get it. What a great investment process. I hope someone is working on a revised edition of Graham & Dodd that incorporates the Did Elon Musk Tweet Yet metric. The best time to buy a stock is a few months before Elon Musk tweets about it; the best time to sell it is the day after he tweets. If Elon Musk just sold advance notice of his tweets to hedge funds, he could be the richest person in the world. 

 

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 18787

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1 hour ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Yep, after any Elon Musk tweet it will quickly spike and then usually come back down to Earth within a couple days. 

My brother made some dough on Dogecoin just trading off Elon. Quickly in to ride the wave and then sell.  

Did this just last night/this morning. Except I follow Crypto Cobain and wait for him to bitch about said Elon tweets.

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cam4mav

cam4mav 771

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bump for the expected FINRA financials report that shows actual reported short data bi-weekly as of 1/30 i think.

checks reddit and twitter....... report is delayed / website was down at one point / general fuckery

 

image.png.fe9950f3a39ed783e4c1ec9a9ee8da60.png

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126%3A0P000002CH&sdkVersion=2.58.0

 

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cam4mav

cam4mav 771

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78% as of 2/2 I think, self reported numbers where the fine for falsifying records is fractions of a penny on the dollar anyways.

Can't wait to see what does, or doesn't, happen the rest of the week. It's like a slow motion multi car accident. Is at almost over or is there a semi about to fly into frame at 75mph?!
4b28a6b1a56c216c14c55f74f96ef646.jpg

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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I'll echo the same thing I've been echoing since December: do not short GME and do not sell naked calls.

This thing is likely still coiled up and prone to launching on a catalyst. It's just that the barrier to entry on the trade is so expensive now that it is much more of a gamble than it was even in November when the price was $20. It's a gamble, at this point, that I'm more than happy to watch from the sidelines.

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cam4mav

cam4mav 771

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On 2/10/2021 at 10:14 AM, Eastwood said:

I'll echo the same thing I've been echoing since December: do not short GME and do not sell naked calls.

This thing is likely still coiled up and prone to launching on a catalyst. It's just that the barrier to entry on the trade is so expensive now that it is much more of a gamble than it was even in November when the price was $20. It's a gamble, at this point, that I'm more than happy to watch from the sidelines.

just wait and watch reddit get stimmy checks and go for round two

edit: i'm also out and won't be getting back in, but i'm watching closely.

Edited by cam4mav
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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 18787

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26 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

I've watched his Youtube channel and Roaring Kitty is an impossible not to like kind of hero, I can't believe he's under investigation. That's some bullshit. He was fully transparent in his GME theory.

He made the big guys lose. That's cheating no matter the method.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11644

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This shitshow will go nowhere.

I once got a meeting with my State Senator about some legislation I thought was a bad idea.  The fucking moron didn’t know the difference between cash accounting and accrual accounting.  Back when I was naive enough to hope an elected official was versed in the things they are managing.  Not a genius or policy wonk per se, but remotely informed.

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B00M

B00M 6413

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18 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

They should address Gill as Roaring Kitty. Lol. 

Loved when he said "I'm not a cat" and "I like the stock" .. Glad he was able to have fun given the outrageous claim made agsinst him. 

Also laughed when reddit CEO straight up denied the anti semitism card Melvin tried to play. Melvin is such a victim with his mom and pop hedge fund!

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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Do what you want but I'm probably going to get back in on Monday with some of my earlier profits...

Had one CEO say price woulda went into the thousands if it wasn't shut down that day.

Gabe(Melvin ceo) said the increase in price wasnt the shorts covering but a buying frenzy buy retail plus other institutions

Reports surfacing about how ETFs that contain decent amounts of gme have been heavily shorted lately

We will see what happens but 40$ is most likely the floor...????

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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Ok so just saw this...so earlier I posted about how reddit believes that shorts are hiding in ETF's by shorting the ETF and buying every stock in besides gme

Well in xrt the one being shorted 200% the second highest holding is MGNI and is up 40% for a month with high of 61$ was 34$ on jan29

Another ETF the second highest holding(BILI) went from 113 to 156.....

Interesting to say the least

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Chapo

Chapo 104

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1 hour ago, Bone3421 said:

Ok so just saw this...so earlier I posted about how reddit believes that shorts are hiding in ETF's by shorting the ETF and buying every stock in besides gme

Well in xrt the one being shorted 200% the second highest holding is MGNI and is up 40% for a month with high of 61$ was 34$ on jan29

Another ETF the second highest holding(BILI) went from 113 to 156.....

Interesting to say the least

 I have a monkey brain, tell me how to make money on this.....

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