Jump to content

My Not So Short Story on GME

Eastwood

By Eastwood
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 567
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Captainant
Captainant

Turns out, dumping trillions of dollars of liquidity into a stagnant market leads to stupid shit happening. Who knew!

52-80
52-80

You’re hoping that a guy barely meeting working class threshold throwing almost 2 months of pre-tax income into a single speculative play ... should make a reasonable financial decision.    i t

Posted Images

Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19019

Posted
Posted (edited)

I know last time every single option was ITM. Has anyone on Reddit said What number would it need to close tomorrow for that to happen? 
 

Also I think I’m going to have to keep like 100 shares of GME in my 401k at all times just to balance out the havoc it wreaks on the market. Today was not a good day for my long holds. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
  • Author
Posted
53 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I know last time every single option was ITM. Has anyone on Reddit said What number would it need to close tomorrow for that to happen? 
 

Also I think I’m going to have to keep like 100 shares of GME in my 401k at all times just to balance out the havoc it wreaks on the market. Today was not a good day for my long holds. 

It would have to close over $800 for every option to close ITM tomorrow. They pushed it way out. Interestingly enough, there are no strikes lower than 20 for 3/5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 18787

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

Reminds me of the scene in the big short...its like 2+2= fish

Every broker has it listed as hard to borrow, yet they can maneuver the price down 100$ in 2 days with no shares supposedly available???
 

It's GME, trying to make sense of any of it is a waste of brain effort 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15343

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

Reminds me of the scene in the big short...its like 2+2= fish

Every broker has it listed as hard to borrow, yet they can maneuver the price down 100$ in 2 days with no shares supposedly available???
 

You and I aren't dealing with the same side of brokerage as the titans are.  Retail Brokerage and Prime Brokerage are two completely different animals.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

Reminds me of the scene in the big short...its like 2+2= fish

Every broker has it listed as hard to borrow, yet they can maneuver the price down 100$ in 2 days with no shares supposedly available???
 

One way to explain the mechanics is this:

On Wednesday, a whale starts buying up a shitload of calls along the Friday options chain.  Say, at 200C, 300C, 400C strikes, and so on.

The market maker sells it to them, and buys up the stock as a hedge.  The stock price rises because of the massive buying (and the other people short the stock getting squeezed, etc).  The stock price rises increase the value of those 200C 300C 400C options.

The whale(s) flips those options onto WSB who are jumping along to hoping to get a leveraged return.  The whales pocket lots of profit.

On Friday, because those options are closer to expiration AND because it doesn't look like 300C and 400C will get breached, the risk to the market makers (who are SHORT the option) decreases, so now they start to sell away the stocks they bought as hedge.

 

Because they are selling away these stocks, the stock price decrease.  And it reduces their risk on the 200C and so on, so they start selling away even MORE stock that was hedging those.  It's a domino effect.

 

If the market maker managed their risk properly, they were completely neutral to the stock price, and they made money pocketing millions of pennies from the market-making activity (their bread and butter).  Aforementioned whales made money flipping options and/or shares.  Some other institution that shorted the shares on the other side of this trade surely got fucked.  Retailed mostly held the bag.

 

It's hedge fund on hedge fund violence.  Retail just went along and caught collateral damage.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted
One way to explain the mechanics is this:
On Wednesday, a whale starts buying up a shitload of calls along the Friday options chain.  Say, at 200C, 300C, 400C strikes, and so on.
The market maker sells it to them, and buys up the stock as a hedge.  The stock price rises because of the massive buying (and the other people short the stock getting squeezed, etc).  The stock price rises increase the value of those 200C 300C 400C options.
The whale(s) flips those options onto WSB who are jumping along to hoping to get a leveraged return.  The whales pocket lots of profit.
On Friday, because those options are closer to expiration AND because it doesn't look like 300C and 400C will get breached, the risk to the market makers (who are SHORT the option) decreases, so now they start to sell away the stocks they bought as hedge.
 
Because they are selling away these stocks, the stock price decrease.  And it reduces their risk on the 200C and so on, so they start selling away even MORE stock that was hedging those.  It's a domino effect.
 
If the market maker managed their risk properly, they were completely neutral to the stock price, and they made money pocketing millions of pennies from the market-making activity (their bread and butter).  Aforementioned whales made money flipping options and/or shares.  Some other institution that shorted the shares on the other side of this trade surely got fucked.  Retailed mostly held the bag.
 
It's hedge fund on hedge fund violence.  Retail just went along and caught collateral damage.
Yeah I know all that....which is why I asked where is the hedge fund on our side right above that post

I have never thought reddit had the power to swing price like reported...so it doesnt make sense that there is this much downward pressure for hedge vs hedge
Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bone3421 said:

Yeah I know all that....which is why I asked where is the hedge fund on our side right above that post

I have never thought reddit had the power to swing price like reported...so it doesnt make sense that there is this much downward pressure for hedge vs hedge

whichever hedge fund aligned with he long side of the trade didnt necessarily have to "fight" for GME by buying the shares

they did it by buying up the call options, which sparked the run-up, and then they flipped the options profitably, after which point they did not have to care about the share price.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted
whichever hedge fund aligned with he long side of the trade didnt necessarily have to "fight" for GME by buying the shares
they did it by buying up the call options, which sparked the run-up, and then they flipped the options profitably, after which point they did not have to care about the share price.
The higher the price the more calls itm the higher the price goes...start gamma squeeze, if they bailed sounds like a paper handed hedge lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

The higher the price the more calls itm the higher the price goes...start gamma squeeze, if they bailed sounds like a paper handed hedge lol
 

if someone has access to all the flow data they could do forensics and unpack the story.  the first run up there was a legitimate squeeze due to the higher SI and more people (short side) being caught offguard.

 

its possible that whoever triggered this run did it in a more calculated manner.

 

or its a complete crap shoot cuz whales lose money all the time to.  see: the ones on the other side of this trade

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted
if someone has access to all the flow data they could do forensics and unpack the story.  the first run up there was a legitimate squeeze due to the higher SI and more people (short side) being caught offguard.
 
its possible that whoever triggered this run did it in a more calculated manner.
 
or its a complete crap shoot cuz whales lose money all the time to.  see: the ones on the other side of this trade
Yeah the other day was a gamma squeeze buy someone that set up a call chain...figured it would still domino like last time, still might. I plan on holding over the weekend and seeing what next week brings
Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:
29 minutes ago, 52-80 said:
if someone has access to all the flow data they could do forensics and unpack the story.  the first run up there was a legitimate squeeze due to the higher SI and more people (short side) being caught offguard.
 
its possible that whoever triggered this run did it in a more calculated manner.
 
or its a complete crap shoot cuz whales lose money all the time to.  see: the ones on the other side of this trade

Yeah the other day was a gamma squeeze buy someone that set up a call chain...figured it would still domino like last time, still might. I plan on holding over the weekend and seeing what next week brings

if some dumb whale saw this as an opportunity to short the stock, maybe some other smart whale will orchestrate another run up yet again

6H3M.gif

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted

Lol...I just try to go with makes sense and not into conspiracies. I could join the crazies that think it was the fed wire going down that pushed it up

It really is interesting so I'm just trying to pay attention with my little skin in the game and if I have to I'll just take my dbl up with the profits I took earlier

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted

Finra has 57% of volume over the last 3 days as short.... cant wait to see how this all ends

Do we have anybody here that does technical analysis so we can compare with reddit...like what is the macd and is it a good indicator because apparently it is looking good per reddit

Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted

thats probably television "off season".  whatever detective tv shes on thats always playing on the tv, she looks pretty good from the waist up. 

 

whole body be looking like a pepsi bottle but again, face and tits cant be denied

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted
thats probably television "off season".  whatever detective tv shes on thats always playing on the tv, she looks pretty good from the waist up. 
 
whole body be looking like a pepsi bottle but again, face and tits cant be denied
Interesting take....so
Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted

interest late spurt GME at the last hour of the day.  i didn watch the option chain develop, so i dont know how it was triggered, but there was definitely massive volume at the 200, 250, 300 call levels , some with volume exceeding (previous day) open interest. 

i tried to hitch a ride but was too late and lost out a bit.  did sell some more puts on it which should turn out good

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bone3421

Bone3421 716

Posted
Posted
interest late spurt GME at the last hour of the day.  i didn watch the option chain develop, so i dont know how it was triggered, but there was definitely massive volume at the 200, 250, 300 call levels , some with volume exceeding (previous day) open interest. 
i tried to hitch a ride but was too late and lost out a bit.  did sell some more puts on it which should turn out good
Probably a combo of renewed faith/hype and it being on the short restriction list today...see how much the shorters can get/keep it down tomorrow

I'm a noob....when you sell a put are you wanting price to go up to profit correct??? Dont think it would be like a regular put since you sold it to someone else...
Link to comment
Share on other sites
APMP

APMP 688

Posted
Posted
Anyone playing the Rocket squeeze? I know, insert mom joke here, but seriously. 
 
The irony of going to the moon on Rocket...
I have a small position but by the time I got in it was almost $29. Still, the company has good fundamentals so I don't mind even if there is no squeeze.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Anyone playing the Rocket squeeze? I know, insert mom joke here, but seriously. 
 

The irony of going to the moon on Rocket...

I missed it - sort of.  Made money selling the puts , closed after earnings.

Last night I saw the heavy option order flow and put in order for calls at 37$ each.  I was only able to fill for a single call - price went to 41$ and i didnt want to chase the fill.

This morning those calls are $250 each.  6.7x overnight :(:(:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Bone3421 said:

Probably a combo of renewed faith/hype and it being on the short restriction list today...see how much the shorters can get/keep it down tomorrow

I'm a noob....when you sell a put are you wanting price to go up to profit correct??? Dont think it would be like a regular put since you sold it to someone else...

yes.  you sell a put to open up a position on a stock.  (short position = -1 put).  when stock goes up, the puts become less valuable.  then you buy the puts back to close position.  (-1 put  +1put = 0)

 

the difference between this and buying a call long, or buying the stock long, is if the stock doenst move substantially your way, youre still theoretically "earning" money from the time-value of the option decaying

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck it.  Just bought 10 March 12 $30 call options for 3.42  

My NGA.  Im on the 35C.

Folks need to look at this option chain.  This is expiring next week, not this friday.

Circle is daily traded volume.  next to it is open existing - meaning existing calls.

TONS of new calls above current price has been opened up today.  This is potentially fuel for the rocket.

 

image.thumb.png.4068f56d74b45ae859bd0d2b9ba13901.png

 

To be clear, we dont know if this "fuel" is already used to sustain the current $30 pricing, or if thats setting up for a further sustained run.... quantitative folks actually have tools to measure 2nd order derivatives and look at vanna and vega and all that shit to predict reflexive action... but this is def looking bullish

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19142

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

My NGA.  Im on the 35C.

Folks need to look at this option chain.  This is expiring next week, not this friday.

Circle is daily traded volume.  next to it is open existing - meaning existing calls.

TONS of new calls above current price has been opened up today.  This is potentially fuel for the rocket.

 

image.thumb.png.4068f56d74b45ae859bd0d2b9ba13901.png

 

To be clear, we dont know if this "fuel" is already used to sustain the current $30 pricing, or if thats setting up for a further sustained run.... quantitative folks actually have tools to measure 2nd order derivatives and look at vanna and vega and all that shit to predict reflexive action... but this is def looking bullish

 

 

is it any surprise?  "they" filled out the options chain from 30-35 compared to last screenshot, which was new fuel to the rocket

Screen Shot 2021-03-02 at 7.16.19 PM.png

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...