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My Not So Short Story on GME

Eastwood

By Eastwood
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Captainant
Captainant

Turns out, dumping trillions of dollars of liquidity into a stagnant market leads to stupid shit happening. Who knew!

52-80
52-80

You’re hoping that a guy barely meeting working class threshold throwing almost 2 months of pre-tax income into a single speculative play ... should make a reasonable financial decision.    i t

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

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Keep a realistic price target in mind. Most of these numbers don't take into account any outside elements. Let's be real here, anything above $1k per share is pure lunacy. The market couldn't stomach it threatening $500 per, so anything predicting above that should be viewed with skepticism. Don't expect the market to play fair after they already have shown they won't.

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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Keep a realistic price target in mind. Most of these numbers don't take into account any outside elements. Let's be real here, anything above $1k per share is pure lunacy. The market couldn't stomach it threatening $500 per, so anything predicting above that should be viewed with skepticism. Don't expect the market to play fair after they already have shown they won't.
For sure...I dont see 100k happening at all, just a fun thought.

1st price point is 1k for me...will sell probably 5 shares to lock in nice gains and then let rest ride if it continues to go up but if I dont like the movement then the rest gets sold
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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Been trying to pay attention to the candles last few days...can someone smarter explain why it appears the sellers have more power than buyers....

I see green candles lately with twice the volume have equal to or less effect on price than the red candles...ex

112k green volume raised price 1.48%
67k red volume dropped price 1.13%

132k green raised it .7%
64k red dropped .55%

Picked ones close together of course the last one is side by side in a 20min window

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

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What the hell is anyone’s justification for being short rocket mortgage?  They are the 800 pound gorilla in the mortgage industry, they AFS kicking ass and taking names, and even with interest rates likely going up this year the industry still projects to be worth 3+ trillion and have its 4th or 5th best year ever. Seriously, why short that fucking stock?  

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mycox

mycox 582

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What the hell is anyone’s justification for being short rocket mortgage?  They are the 800 pound gorilla in the mortgage industry, they AFS kicking ass and taking names, and even with interest rates likely going up this year the industry still projects to be worth 3+ trillion and have its 4th or 5th best year ever. Seriously, why short that fucking stock?  

The shorts are just playing the game. RKT will probably settle in the high 20s low 30s.

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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Anybody got a thesis....someone is buying deep in the money calls (12$-17$)for April 16th so far from the screenshots the total is 131mil spent on 12000 calls...so possible 1.2 million shares if exercised

Redditor assumes it's someone waiting to start squeeze when they exercise options

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,063

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2 hours ago, mycox said:

The shorts are just playing the game. RKT will probably settle in the high 20s low 30s.

I understand why a market needs to have the ability to short, but it’s fucking ridiculous on a solid, well run company like that. Hope they take it up the ass. 

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

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4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What the hell is anyone’s justification for being short rocket mortgage?  They are the 800 pound gorilla in the mortgage industry, they AFS kicking ass and taking names, and even with interest rates likely going up this year the industry still projects to be worth 3+ trillion and have its 4th or 5th best year ever. Seriously, why short that fucking stock?  

I think someone had inside info on rates going up, which is going to effectively snuff out the latest surge of refis, which is the major chunk of RKT's business, if I recall correctly. But possibly a perfect storm of stock name (Rocket) attracting meme stonkers and people heavily monitoring for short interest caused a squeeze beforehand. Just my theory.

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52-80

52-80 19,142

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9 hours ago, Bone3421 said:

Anybody got a thesis....someone is buying deep in the money calls (12$-17$)for April 16th so far from the screenshots the total is 131mil spent on 12000 calls...so possible 1.2 million shares if exercised

Redditor assumes it's someone waiting to start squeeze when they exercise options

There's also a tonnnn of open interest on the puts (opposite) side on the April expiration. 

If our theory is that stock prices are driven by large share-trading action by market makers (which outweigh retail share buying), there's proxy input from both direction.

I'm hopeful though.  Just for the lulz

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Bone3421

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There's also a tonnnn of open interest on the puts (opposite) side on the April expiration. 
If our theory is that stock prices are driven by large share-trading action by market makers (which outweigh retail share buying), there's proxy input from both direction.
I'm hopeful though.  Just for the lulz
I get that....just seems paying that much for deep itm calls has got to be for a reason...gotta be more than just trying to profit on a mediocre price increase imo

Curious if it could be hedge for a short or if it's a squeeze play...

Today might be pretty crazy...
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52-80

52-80 19,142

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34 minutes ago, Bone3421 said:

I get that....just seems paying that much for deep itm calls has got to be for a reason...gotta be more than just trying to profit on a mediocre price increase imo

Curious if it could be hedge for a short or if it's a squeeze play...

Today might be pretty crazy...

fuckery's afoot.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

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fuckery's afoot.
Indeed. Everyone is positioned now, in my opinion. HFs will now make money whichever way the wind blows. That might mean that this stock is stuck in a permanent battle of 50 to 150 (helluva range) until something changes with the company. If the company issues more shares, it changes the calculus. If the company is acquired, it rips. If they get cash flow positive long enough to reinstate their dividend, the stock rips. If Cohen leaves or his grand experiment fails, the stock tanks. There's always the possibility that the SEC halts trading to investigate the naked shorts, also.

It's a casino, at this point. Some were calling it that before, but it was inevitable the first time around. Now? No clue.
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The Royal We

The Royal We 3,067

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26 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Indeed. Everyone is positioned now, in my opinion. HFs will now make money whichever way the wind blows. That might mean that this stock is stuck in a permanent battle of 50 to 150 (helluva range) until something changes with the company. If the company issues more shares, it changes the calculus. If the company is acquired, it rips. If they get cash flow positive long enough to reinstate their dividend, the stock rips. If Cohen leaves or his grand experiment fails, the stock tanks. There's always the possibility that the SEC halts trading to investigate the naked shorts, also.

It's a casino, at this point. Some were calling it that before, but it was inevitable the first time around. Now? No clue.

This is where I'm at on it too, it will probably stay in this range unless there is a major catalyst.  $1,000 is a pipe dream though, if it gets anywhere close to 50% of the ATH again, it's time to bounce IMO.

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Bone3421

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This is where I'm at on it too, it will probably stay in this range unless there is a major catalyst.  $1,000 is a pipe dream though, if it gets anywhere close to 50% of the ATH again, it's time to bounce IMO.
I wouldn't say 1k is a pipedream... if it squeezes that is very realistic if the plug doesnt get pulled for only 1 side of the market again.

Now the 100k is a fun pipe dream to think about. If it gets rolling and every call(800$) finishes in the $$$ by the 19th then I could see 5k being in play
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Bone3421

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Anybody got a thesis....someone is buying deep in the money calls (12$-17$)for April 16th so far from the screenshots the total is 131mil spent on 12000 calls...so possible 1.2 million shares if exercised

Redditor assumes it's someone waiting to start squeeze when they exercise options
Another 2500 deep in the money calls are purchased for 31 million....April 16 like the others except today also purchased a block on March 19

Total is now 161 million spent on 14,500 calls
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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Really trying to drive that price up huh? How much are you down?
I profited first go around 400% ....put some back in so technically rolling with free shares

Just trying to share what I come across..and yes I do believe it will go up a pretty big % but who knows
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Bone3421

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This is what I was telling y'all about in my long bull case. If an acquisition or merger with Steam happens, it's easily a $500 stock. 73b7e1cc21a4b54c6bd6468cf63d72ed.jpg
The future is bright for sure as the gaming industry is huge...which is why I'm hoping this thing squeezes again so I can cash out and reinvest with a chunk of profits after it falls back down...and if it doesnt squeeze, oh well I got in a possible juggernaut at 40

That's what a lot of people dont get about the holders. Why sell for 300-200(last time on the way down) if the future is Amazon of gaming.

Hell they are already doing delivery and getting stuff to buyers in less than 5 hours from a few reddit posts
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Bone3421

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So what does everyone think will happen today and the rest of the week?

Prices are crazy but still trying to figure if there's an option angle here...
The price is expected to continue up....but it's all a gamble...best of luck

Go read r/gme and some r/wallstreetbets
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Bone3421

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i bought in at 252. so, i guess i'm holding for a price above that. got in late. shoulda bought more at that $30, though i had given up on the stock at that point. not enough to sell, because fuck them that's why. 
If the rocket doesnt pick you up today, it should tomorrow
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Bone3421

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Another 2500 deep in the money calls are purchased for 31 million....April 16 like the others except today also purchased a block on March 19

Total is now 161 million spent on 14,500 calls
Missed it yesterday...but whoever it is is still gobbling up deep in the money calls thru the philly exchange

Total is now 286.5 million spent on 21,000 calls

Leaning towards more of a short hedging than someone planning to trigger the squeeze...but who the hell knows
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52-80

52-80 19,142

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1 hour ago, Bone3421 said:

Missed it yesterday...but whoever it is is still gobbling up deep in the money calls thru the philly exchange

Total is now 286.5 million spent on 21,000 calls

Leaning towards more of a short hedging than someone planning to trigger the squeeze...but who the hell knows

ITM calls are expensive. Deeper it is, the closer it is to 100 shares in terms of cash outlay and directional exposure to the stock. 
 

If you purchase even a small chunk of that $280M in calls, you’d have to be massively short the shares.  Which also has a very limited upside given the share price.  And there are very limited shares to borrow to short. It’s almost a 0 sum position.  And your hedging calls would suffer high theta burn. 
 

but weirder things have happened. 
 

 

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Bone3421

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ITM calls are expensive. Deeper it is, the closer it is to 100 shares in terms of cash outlay and directional exposure to the stock. 
 
If you purchase even a small chunk of that $280M in calls, you’d have to be massively short the shares.  Which also has a very limited upside given the share price.  And there are very limited shares to borrow to short. It’s almost a 0 sum position.  And your hedging calls would suffer high theta burn. 
 
but weirder things have happened. 
 
 
I'm just trying to figure out who/why is buying so much that deep...I'm not sure but like you mentioned that deep it's closer to the dollar value so what I read mentions that theta isnt really a concern on deep itm calls...its all Greek to me

Also mentioned if it is a short could also be a way to recover some Failure to delivers.
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