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The US and Korea

RomaVicta

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SmokeyTheBear

SmokeyTheBear 5562

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So IF (big if) the Trump admin can make a deal with NK, is it going to be considered perfect? If we take the rationale (heh) they took with the Iran deal, then this deal has to be something they 100% back in every way. 

From those tweets, this deal is shaping up to be anything but perfect. But of course, this will all fall apart before they even get started. 

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HenryJames
HenryJames

Un-N-Out?

Dbeasy
Dbeasy

Reading the butthurt in here reminds me yet again that 95% of our population, including the posters on here, are simply incapable of perceiving anything political in any way other than reinforcing the

Goredho
Goredho

My inconsequential thoughts:   1. Dbeasy is right.  This is a first step in a change in the handling of NK.  The status quo was surely not the answer, so something different needed to be tried.  

David Dennison

David Dennison 18946

Posted
Posted
Just now, SmokeyTheBear said:

So IF (big if) the Trump admin can make a deal with NK, is it going to be considered perfect? If we take the rationale (heh) they took with the Iran deal, then this deal has to be something they 100% back in every way. 

From those tweets, this deal is shaping up to be anything but perfect. But of course, this will all fall apart before they even get started. 

I wonder if The Donald is going to try for a treaty.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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So now we see the North Korean gambit--"we'll pull out of the summit unless you cancel your training exercises with South Korea."  

So--is Trump so desperate for a deal that he'd abandon a key ally in the region?  My money's on "yes."

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

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So IF (big if) the Trump admin can make a deal with NK, is it going to be considered perfect? If we take the rationale (heh) they took with the Iran deal, then this deal has to be something they 100% back in every way. 
From those tweets, this deal is shaping up to be anything but perfect. But of course, this will all fall apart before they even get started. 


It will be "perfect" to the republicans because their orange god made it. The actual contents of the deal will be
completely irrelevant to 40% of the country.

And until there's a mushroom cloud over Guam, the other 60% of the country will forget about it in the haze of the current 50 worst trump scandals of the day.

Of course there won't be a deal anyway.
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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So now we see the North Korean gambit--"we'll pull out of the summit unless you cancel your training exercises with South Korea."  

So--is Trump so desperate for a deal that he'd abandon a key ally in the region?  My money's on "yes."

The first gambit of many.  Or, at least, the first open revelation of one of their gambits.   Hell, this whole thing is a gambit to test Trump's weaknesses.  (I'm not telling you something you don't already know, just commenting).   I mean, there was already supposedly a express agreement that they'd be ok with the joint exercise, which is part of what led to the other things they've gotten — meetings, photo ops, status.  If this is true, they're already breaking promises before the sitdown even happens. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mojo Hand said:

The first gambit of many.  Or, at least, the first open revelation of one of their gambits.   Hell, this whole thing is a gambit to test Trump's weaknesses.  (I'm not telling you something you don't already know, just commenting).   I mean, there was already supposedly a express agreement that they'd be ok with the joint exercise, which is part of what led to the other things they've gotten — meetings, photo ops, status.  If this is true, they're already breaking promises before the sitdown even happens. 

Yep--it's going to be interesting to see how far they can push Trump.  He has touted this deal before the deal has even been discussed, and North Korea knows that.  So they're going to let him twist in the wind and see how much he'll give up just to get a meeting.

This really is going to be amazing to watch.

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Blotto

Blotto 23575

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Posted

Lulz at the Trump sycophants in the House teeing up the Nobel campaign before any thing of substance had actually been acheived. If only we could have had some inkling or historical evidence to suggest that NK might not be 100% trustworthy. 

 

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In10se

In10se 175

Posted
Posted

That is worded weird. Are they saying they want the US to stop insisting Kim gives up the nuclear program? 

Kim is going to try every trick to get Trump to withdraw US forces from Korea. His 3 objectives are

1) withdrawal of US forces 

2) easing of sanctions

3) covertly continuing nuclear arms build up while being seen as legitimate by the global leadership. 

Trump is on his way to helping him achieve all 3. 

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Jhawkmvp

Jhawkmvp 1489

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NK had little chance of giving up their nukes anyway, but pulling out of the Iran deal, before the summit, sent the message that the US could not be trusted to honor it's nuclear agreements.  I feel for the SK president Moon Jae-in. He is a legitimately good guy and has led an interesting life.  It must be hard being stuck working with Trump and Kim on a peace agreement. He must feel like Sisyphus.

From his wiki:

Quote

Born in Geoje, South Korea during the last year of the Korean War, Moon Jae-in was the second child and oldest son among five children of father Moon Yong-hyung and mother Kang Han-ok. His parents were refugees from South Hamgyeong Province, North Korea who fled their native city of Hungnam during the Hungnam evacuation.[7]

His family eventually settled in Busan. Since his father did not want to become a government employee, as he had been in North Korea, his father started a business selling socks which only left his family in great debt. His mother became the breadwinner by selling clothes received from relief organisations and delivering briquettes. Moon's family became attached to the Catholic church when his mother went to the local cathedral to receive whole milk powder. Moon once said in an interview that he doesn't know how to ride a bike since his family was desperately poor to afford a bike or monthly school tuition.

Moon entered Kyungnam High School at the top of his class.[7][8] He was accepted to study law at Kyunghee University where he met his future wife, Kim Jung-sook, with full scholarships.[9] He was arrested, convicted, and imprisoned and expelled from the university after he organized a student protest against the Yushin Constitution.[7][10][11] Later, he was conscripted into the military and assigned to the South Korean special forces, where he participated in "Operation Paul Bunyan" during the Axe murder incident in Panmunjom.[12][13] He was suggested to build his career in the military due to his outstanding works which was awarded by then-president Chun.

After his discharge, the death of his father influenced him to decide to pass the Bar Exam. He went into Daeheungsa, the Buddhist temple, to study the exam and passed its first of two rounds in 1979. In 1980 he returned to school to complete his remaining year of studies. In 1980 he passed the second round and was admitted to the Judicial Research and Training Institute. He graduated second in his class but was not admitted to become a judge or government prosecutor due to his history of activism against the Yushin dictatorship under Park Chung-hee's rule as a student.[14] Moon chose to become a private lawyer instead.

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105334

Posted
Posted
Oh.

I’d laugh at the series of posts declaring victory and shitting all over those of us who said “expect the DPRK to go all DPRK”....but this shit isn’t funny. It never was.

This is how things go when you expect that simpleton tactics and magical thinking will do what 60 years of diplomacy hasn’t. It’s not good. We need realistic and practical thinking and approaches to North Korea.

And we’re not going to get them.
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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28798

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I’d laugh at the series of posts declaring victory and shitting all over those of us who said “expect the DPRK to go all DPRK”....but this shit isn’t funny. It never was.

This is how things go when you expect that simpleton tactics and magical thinking will do what 60 years of diplomacy hasn’t. It’s not good. We need realistic and practical thinking and approaches to North Korea.

And we’re not going to get them.

I'm going to wait to gloat about being right all along until after the story has played out. Things could still change 

Nothing that's happened so far has surprised me other than the American president acting like a fool, though. At least the three prisoners were freed. Let's enjoy that until the next batch are seized.  

Edited by WhatTheBuck
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In10se

In10se 175

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Those 3 prisoners have now become the thing NK will point to for proof of their willingness to compromise and negotiate. It puts them on higher ground as now things like these joint military exercises or, eventually, the US military presence in SK will be painted as signs of impending aggression and reasons for NK to not denuclearize. 

Congrats trump, you just single handedly gave NK a path to legitimize itself as a nuclear state to the international community. 

Guess this is why you don't let children negotiate deals 

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Pods

Pods 7586

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Posted

He's also given them legitimacy. Whether it happens, or not, the US still agreed to one on one meetings with North Korea. The US treating with North Korea as equals. 

That's a huge propaganda coup. 

Traditional calculus for considering this fails though. This will not be a failure to Trump's base. He brought the three hostages home safely. That is his win that they will hang on to. The thing that helps North Korea internationally, will also help Trump with his base. 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10435

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Posted

Congrats trump, you just single handedly gave NK a path to legitimize itself as a nuclear state to the international community. 


That’s a bit far. The international community isn’t changing its entire view of NK because Trump is a dipshit. He’s likely going to continue fucking up this deal like many of us assumed, but he’s not adding legitimacy to them in the process. It’s not like the rest of the world leaders are sitting around thinking Trump is a reasonable person to deal with.
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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28798

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55 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 


That’s a bit far. The international community isn’t changing its entire view of NK because Trump is a dipshit. He’s likely going to continue fucking up this deal like many of us assumed, but he’s not adding legitimacy to them in the process. It’s not like the rest of the world leaders are sitting around thinking Trump is a reasonable person to deal with.

 

That's not the audience Kim is performing for. 

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Hanrahan

Hanrahan 1306

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Posted
So has the US actually given up anything at this point? Or was it just future promises as part of a “negotiation”. I did see we got three prisoners released. 


Have you not been paying attention? Trump fucked this whole thing up from the get go. NK is now a legitimate nuclear power with a seat at the big boys’ table because Kim tricked Trump into accepting those prisoners. Kim is playing Chess while Trump repeatedly shocks himself playing “Operation.”
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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

So has the US actually given up anything at this point? Or was it just future promises as part of a “negotiation”. I did see we got three prisoners released. 

Yes, three prisoners that wiped the slate clean after their murder of Otto Warmbier.  There were 11 prisoners released under Obama.   Dennis Rodman got prisoners released.   It's always nice to get Americans back, but it wasn't some unprecedented coup.   The unprecedented coup was for Kim in getting the president of the United States to call him honorable and to praise how well he takes care of our prisoners, just months after he tortured one of our citizens to death.

How about international embarrassment?  Did Charlie Brown give up any of his pride every time he ran for Lucy's football?    We could have cautiously moved towards talks.   Instead Trump has been celebrating the deal and how he deserves the Nobel prize for it, before there was even a sit down.   There's a cost to the world knowing that our president is a fool. 

And that's just if the talks are off.  If Trump actually modifies or cancels our military plans to save his pride, Kim's going to get a whole lot more. 

Hopefully this is just a hiccup and Kim blinks and Trump shows us what an amazing negotiator he actually is.   But this is playing out in a predictable way so far. 

Edited by Mojo Hand
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wildcat09

wildcat09 29386

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Yes, three prisoners that wiped the slate clean after their murder of Otto Warmbier.  There were 11 prisoners released under Obama.   Dennis Rodman got prisoners released.   It's always nice to get Americans back, but it wasn't some unprecedented coup.   The unprecedented coup was for Kim in getting the president of the United States to call him honorable and to praise how well he takes care of our prisoners, just months after he tortured one of our citizens to death.

How about international embarrassment?  Did Charlie Brown give up any of his pride every time he ran for Lucy's football?    We could have cautiously moved towards talks.   Instead Trump has been celebrating the deal and how he deserves the Nobel prize for it, before there was even a sit down.   There's a cost to the world knowing that our president is a fool. 

And that's just if the talks are off.  If Trump actually modifies or cancels our military plans to save his pride, Kim's going to get a whole lot more. 

Hopefully this is just a hiccup and Kim blinks and Trump shows us what an amazing negotiator he actually is.   But this is playing out in a predictable way so far. 

Trump is the worst negotiator in the world. This will not end well for us.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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Posted
59 minutes ago, Purgatory County said:

John Bolton is a ghoulish moustachioed war thirsty toad man.

Ok--so everybody hates John Bolton.  That's fine.  But he seems to be the only clear-eyed person in the Republican Party right now.

The North Koreans retrading the deal and imposing new conditions was completely predictable.  It's what they've done for more than 25 years.  Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama--they all saw this pattern repeat itself.  And to quote George W. Bush, "fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice--won't get fooled again."  And yet here we are getting fooled again.

Of course it's predictable that Trump would get fooled again.  He doesn't bother to read about Clinton's or Bush's experience.  And even if he did, he wouldn't understand it.  And even if he did understand it, it would only be evidence that they were idiots, and not the greatest negotiators ever.  So Trump stumble-fucks his way into yet another repetition of the same-old North Korea scenario.

What is surprising is the credence given to this entire exercise by most in Washington.  Of course Republicans fawn over it, proclaiming that Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize before any peace is even negotiated.  But that's to be expected--they've become a joke of a party.  The party that never trusted (for better or worse) the Soviets to adhere to a disarmament agreement, the Iraqis to abide by their obligations under 14 UNSC resolutions, or the Iranians to forego their nuclear program under the JCPOA--now they're fully credulous of guarantees made by the must dishonest regime in the world.  All because it would benefit Trump.

But that's to be expected.  They're morons.

What's been surprising is that their credulity has passed off to others in the Washington thought bubble.  People actually thought this time might be different.  I just don't get it.

Say what you will about John Bolton--he knew this time wouldn't be different.

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In10se

In10se 175

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Posted
3 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

 


That’s a bit far. The international community isn’t changing its entire view of NK because Trump is a dipshit. He’s likely going to continue fucking up this deal like many of us assumed, but he’s not adding legitimacy to them in the process. It’s not like the rest of the world leaders are sitting around thinking Trump is a reasonable person to deal with.

 

Not true. I didn't say it legitimizes them but offers a path to legitimacy through our own instability. Most of the international community doesn't share the same view of NK to the level we do. We've been the ones mostly responsible for upholding sanctions and keeping that regime's feet to the fire, mostly because we've seen them as a threat to us and our interests in that very crucial part of Asia seperating China and Japan. SK is our strategic foothold off the coast of China and NK has been a threat to that this entire time. 

We've mostly been able to stalemate them there and keep our presence because of the allegiance with SK and because of that regime's unsavory leadership. Doing trumpy things that make us look like unstable lunatics both hurts our relationship with SK and gives NK a path to make their own deals with SK and minimize us/butt us out. 

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3435

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I halfway think Trump and the Rocket man cooked this whole thing up for publicity with no intention of ever getting together.

Conversation went something like this:

You release the prisoners with all the usual "fair treatment"  statements, fanfare, tarmac photo op, publicity.  We will telegraph the whole thing .  We will both look great.

We will set up a future "peace meeting", elevate your status, and declare you a nice guy.

A couple of weeks later, we will float some perceived slight, you blow up, and we call the whole thing off.  Its a win win.

 

A little sophisticated for Trump, but not really any more complicated than getting a tax abatement on a high rise.  Just a publicity stunt.

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In10se

In10se 175

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Dr. Teeth said:

On a positive note for Trump, based on his followers and how others consume news in their busy lives, about 50% of this country will always think he fixed the NK problem regardless of what happens going forward. Win win. 

It all points back to the root problem that will bring America down. After a few decades of promoting a culture that shuns education and promotes ignorance and excess Americans are now too stupid to hold anyone accountable for any transgression against them. 

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

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13 hours ago, Hanrahan said:

 


Have you not been paying attention? Trump fucked this whole thing up from the get go. NK is now a legitimate nuclear power with a seat at the big boys’ table because Kim tricked Trump into accepting those prisoners. Kim is playing Chess while Trump repeatedly shocks himself playing “Operation.”

 

No, not specifically. That’s why I asked. I guess I should have indicated that this was a true question.

It just doesn’t appear that we are in any worse position with NK then we were 6-9 months ago.  What does the comment they are now a nuclear power with a seat at the big boy table mean exactly? I seriously doubt that any other countries view North Korea any differently than pre-Trump.

 

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