The US and Korea

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Objectively Trump did nothing but make North Korea stronger.  

Not sure how that can be viewed as positive but whatever.

[Buzzrock 14859]

America got weaker and NK got stronger seems to be the most common talking point in here. How are those things measured?

[bad_teammate 13115]

God, this man is so fucking stupid.
 

 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

1 minute ago, Buzzrock said:

America got weaker and NK got stronger seems to be the most common talking point in here. How are those things measured?

Indirectly and over a long period of time.  International diplomacy is extremely subtle and complex.

[Brisketexan 104228]

Just getting back to this thread -- a lot of good takes above, too many to rep.  Summary of all of them seems to come back to the Charlie Wilson's War "we'll see" anecdote:

Quote

Gust Avrakotos: There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, "how wonderful. The boy got a horse" And the Zen master says, "we'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs all messed up. and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful."

Charlie Wilson: Now the Zen master says, "We'll see."

I think that's generally correct.  

Also, I wanted to follow up with a really good take, from someone who's been intimately involved with the region for decades, has met KJU several times, etc. (also happens to be my cousin by marriage).  

Quote

Initial impressions of Trump-Kim:
Positive side of ledger:
1) Met.
2) Reiterated vague commitments to peace/denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.
3) Agreed to resume POW/MIA remains recovery ops. (I have written on this in past, and why it is important.)
4) Agreed keep talking

 

Negative side of ledger (brace yourselves...long list.)
1) repeats past deal language (92, 94, 2000, 2005, 2012), but has vaguest language on denuclearization since ‘92. Big step backwards.
2) 0 details on what denuclearization means, how to accomplish, or when to start.

Weaknesses continued:
3) No mention of missiles, CBW conventional arms, armistice, human rights, terrorism (they’re on the list of state sponsors), Japanese abduction victims. 
4) no commitment by DPRK to rejoin NPT and ratify CTBT, or EVEN to suspend production of Pu and HEU.

Communique weaknesses continued:
5) no explicit commitment by DPRK to suspend missile testing - and no clarity on the “gray area” of space launch vehicles that has caused trouble in past agreements (Leap Day Debacle of 2012).
6) no agreement to invite IAEA inspectors back.

NOT in the agreement, but promised by Trump: suspension of US conventional military exercises with ROK. This Trump move, worthy of Chamberlain, apparently caught both ROK and DOD SecDef Mattis by surprise. Trump Admin had vehemently rejected China’s “freeze for freeze” proposal.

Freezing joint US-ROK conventional exercises in exchange for DPRK freezing fissile material production was an idea worthy of study - and might have been useful IF DPRK had also frozen its conventional exercises. But giving away US exercises for nothing? That is simply nuts.

 

Big picture:
Summit is potential game changer for mood/atmosphere. Trump welcomed DPRK into community of nations, bestowing gifts of prestige, honor, legitimacy, and relaxation of military and economic pressure. In return, KJU offered a watered down version of previous promises.

Completely missing from the statement? Any specific steps - NOT ONE - to show that KJU is serious about denuclearization. For example, if he’s serious about abandoning his nukes, why not suspend making MORE fissile material?

 

What has NOT changed since the “historic” summit in Singapore:
DPRK is still spinning thousands of centrifuges making more HEU for bombs;
Yongbyon reactor still operating generating more Pu for bombs;
KPA still arrayed along border with ROK, ranging Seoul with artillery.

What else constant?
DPRK still listed as a state sponsor of terrorism;
DPRK missile production and nuclear weapons production unconstrained;
No word on Japanese abduction victims or missing ROK citizens;
120,000 North Koreans in gulags;
25m enduring human rights violations;

 

To be fair, this summit is the start of a process, not the end. We will have months (actually, years) to assess the progress or lack thereof toward the goals of peace and denuclearization. This was ALWAYS going to be a process; a long journey with many obstacles along the way.

But when starting a journey, it’s good to have an agreed goal - we don’t...no details at all on what denuclearization looks like or how peace will be forged. 
It is also good to have a full tank of gas. We are running on empty and our gps isn’t working.

Worse still, while DJT was takin’ a leak, Kim Jong-un slid into the driver’s seat, told Moon Jae-in to get in the back seat, invited two hitchhikers of questionable character to join us (Xi Jinping and Putin), and locked Abe in the trunk!

To get back on course, we need to tell Kim junior to get out from behind the wheel and sit in back, hand Moon the keys, have Trump sit shotgun, have Melania ask for directions, borrow some money from Xi for gas and road food, get Abe out of the trunk, and lock Putin in there.

There's a LOT of "we'll see" going on here, but the signs ain't looking great with respect to long-term progress.

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

5 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Indirectly and over a long period of time.  International diplomacy is extremely subtle and complex.

That's why you want a guy who's spent his entire career in real estate and reality TV to be in charge of it. 

[bad_teammate 13115]

 

1 minute ago, WhatTheBuck said:

That's why you want a guy who's spent his entire career in real estate and reality TV to be in charge of it. 

Maybe this unprepared, incurious, unread, narcissistic moron will pull it off! WE'LL SEE! lol

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

1 minute ago, WhatTheBuck said:

That's why you want a guy who's spent his entire career in real estate and reality TV to be in charge of it. 

Well he may have obtained his goal using both those experiences:

https://people.com/politics/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-condos-north-korea-beaches/

Quote

Trump said he advised Kim that instead of pursuing his nuclear ambitions, he should build “the best hotels in the world” on North Korea’s coastline to boost the country’s economy.

“Think of it from a real estate perspective,” Trump said.

 

[Dbeasy 14931]

Just getting back to this thread -- a lot of good takes above, too many to rep.  Summary of all of them seems to come back to the Charlie Wilson's War "we'll see" anecdote:

Gust Avrakotos: There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, "how wonderful. The boy got a horse" And the Zen master says, "we'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs all messed up. and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful."
Charlie Wilson: Now the Zen master says, "We'll see."

I think that's generally correct.  
Also, I wanted to follow up with a really good take, from someone who's been intimately involved with the region for decades, has met KJU several times, etc. (also happens to be my cousin by marriage).  

Initial impressions of Trump-Kim:
Positive side of ledger:
1) Met.
2) Reiterated vague commitments to peace/denuclearization of Korean Peninsula.
3) Agreed to resume POW/MIA remains recovery ops. (I have written on this in past, and why it is important.)
4) Agreed keep talking   Negative side of ledger (brace yourselves...long list.)
1) repeats past deal language (92, 94, 2000, 2005, 2012), but has vaguest language on denuclearization since ‘92. Big step backwards.
2) 0 details on what denuclearization means, how to accomplish, or when to start. Weaknesses continued:
3) No mention of missiles, CBW conventional arms, armistice, human rights, terrorism (they’re on the list of state sponsors), Japanese abduction victims. 
4) no commitment by DPRK to rejoin NPT and ratify CTBT, or EVEN to suspend production of Pu and HEU. Communique weaknesses continued:
5) no explicit commitment by DPRK to suspend missile testing - and no clarity on the “gray area” of space launch vehicles that has caused trouble in past agreements (Leap Day Debacle of 2012).
6) no agreement to invite IAEA inspectors back. NOT in the agreement, but promised by Trump: suspension of US conventional military exercises with ROK. This Trump move, worthy of Chamberlain, apparently caught both ROK and DOD SecDef Mattis by surprise. Trump Admin had vehemently rejected China’s “freeze for freeze” proposal. Freezing joint US-ROK conventional exercises in exchange for DPRK freezing fissile material production was an idea worthy of study - and might have been useful IF DPRK had also frozen its conventional exercises. But giving away US exercises for nothing? That is simply nuts.   Big picture:
Summit is potential game changer for mood/atmosphere. Trump welcomed DPRK into community of nations, bestowing gifts of prestige, honor, legitimacy, and relaxation of military and economic pressure. In return, KJU offered a watered down version of previous promises. Completely missing from the statement? Any specific steps - NOT ONE - to show that KJU is serious about denuclearization. For example, if he’s serious about abandoning his nukes, why not suspend making MORE fissile material?   What has NOT changed since the “historic” summit in Singapore:
DPRK is still spinning thousands of centrifuges making more HEU for bombs;
Yongbyon reactor still operating generating more Pu for bombs;
KPA still arrayed along border with ROK, ranging Seoul with artillery. What else constant?
DPRK still listed as a state sponsor of terrorism;
DPRK missile production and nuclear weapons production unconstrained;
No word on Japanese abduction victims or missing ROK citizens;
120,000 North Koreans in gulags;
25m enduring human rights violations;   To be fair, this summit is the start of a process, not the end. We will have months (actually, years) to assess the progress or lack thereof toward the goals of peace and denuclearization. This was ALWAYS going to be a process; a long journey with many obstacles along the way. But when starting a journey, it’s good to have an agreed goal - we don’t...no details at all on what denuclearization looks like or how peace will be forged. 
It is also good to have a full tank of gas. We are running on empty and our gps isn’t working. Worse still, while DJT was takin’ a leak, Kim Jong-un slid into the driver’s seat, told Moon Jae-in to get in the back seat, invited two hitchhikers of questionable character to join us (Xi Jinping and Putin), and locked Abe in the trunk! To get back on course, we need to tell Kim junior to get out from behind the wheel and sit in back, hand Moon the keys, have Trump sit shotgun, have Melania ask for directions, borrow some money from Xi for gas and road food, get Abe out of the trunk, and lock Putin in there.

There's a LOT of "we'll see" going on here, but the signs ain't looking great with respect to long-term progress.

Great post with facts from a source with credibility.

[GRHorn 105]

25 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

America got weaker and NK got stronger seems to be the most common talking point in here. How are those things measured?

 

Legitimacy!1!2!2!!1

[bad_teammate 13115]

lol if you think Trump smiling at you gives you legitimacy around the world.

This was a meaningless, stupid event that portends nothing.

[GRHorn 105]

41 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Objectively Trump did nothing but make North Korea stronger.  

Not sure how that can be viewed as positive but whatever.

He made them stronger by canceling military exercises?

[RomaVicta 29704]

3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

They haven't literally crapped on the constitution yet, so that's nice (at least I assume Trump has not).

He hires Russian hookers for that sort of thing. Hope they made a video like they usually do.

[Dahobbs 17408]

7 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

He made them stronger by canceling military exercises?

Yes? Because that is exactly what North Korea has been demanding we do, and we just gave in for nothing. That does give the appearance of strength, does it not?

[Pig Bellmont 8664]

32 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Well he may have obtained his goal using both those experiences:

https://people.com/politics/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-condos-north-korea-beaches/

 

Yup. He did it. NK = solved. People who can’t afford rice will somehow have the disposable income to pay for beach front hotels, AND the dictator won’t need any nukes. What a stroke of genius 

[RomaVicta 29704]

I have been generally for reducing or removing US forces in Korea. However, going out of our way to make it appear to be a concession to NK is pretty stupid. It would be like the US holding a summit with the USSR and announcing the turning over of Panama to the Panamanians was a concession to the Soviets. Why do that?

It's amusing to see pundits, TV news analysts and the common people focus on a specific event/decision of the Trump administration and apply traditional analysis. Others have already pointed this out. Many of us and the sources of information we use in the news media don't do broad context. Each story is beaten to death individually.

Trump foreign policy, such as it is, should be judged as whole by our standing and influence in the world. Hows that working out for us?

 

I love the chimp rescuing the child in a cave metaphor a few pages back. "Well, Jim, the Chimp wiped his shit on the walls, but so far has not harmed the child." "Thanks, Susan, that sound like progress to me, but let's turn to our panel of professors, reporters and a [where the news impacts people of color] black guy."

[Buzzrock 14859]

Indirectly and over a long period of time.  International diplomacy is extremely subtle and complex.

So how does everyone seem so sure that it happened literally overnight?

I’m just not sure why anyone would think any differently of either member of the Worst Haircut Club today vs yesterday.

[Buzzrock 14859]

Yes? Because that is exactly what North Korea has been demanding we do, and we just gave in for nothing. That does give the appearance of strength, does it not?

Drug dealer strategy: first one’s free.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Just now, Buzzrock said:

 

So how does everyone seem so sure that it happened literally overnight?

I’m just not sure why anyone would think any differently of either member of the Worst Haircut Club today vs yesterday.

 

Because there is a long history of international diplomacy to refer back to.  As old as recorded history itself.  Nobody is or can be certain about what will happen in the future.  But decisions have to be made, and we have to make our best educated guesses on the appropriate course of action in any particular case.   That involves relying on precedent and expertise and collected wisdom on what works and what doesn't. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

If the objective is to abandon the commitment to human rights and democracy promotion while emboldening ruthless dictators, then this was a great success.

Trump went all “Fire and Fury” to exacerbate a threat that wasn’t really much of a threat to begin with only to walk the United States back from the very brink he brought us to. 

Political brilliance. 

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Lurch 5918]

The president is a well established moron and some of you want to believe the blind squirrel/nut principle applies to NK diplomacy.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

1 minute ago, Lurch said:

The president is a well established moron and some of you want to believe the blind squirrel/nut principle applies to NK diplomacy.

Yeah, I don’t get this at all. It’s quite absurd. 

[RomaVicta 29704]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If the objective is to abandon the commitment to human rights and democracy promotion while emboldening ruthless dictators, then this was a great success.

Trump went all “Fire and Fury” to exacerbate a threat that wasn’t really much of a threat to begin with only to walk the United States back from the very brink he brought us to. 

Political brilliance. 

 

I just had a chilling thought. What if this is a return to out Latin American policies of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s?

Set up an autocrat who welcomes American corporations to exploit their resources and markets. The autocrat gets huge kickbacks, CIA protection, and death squad/torture training in Georgia.

Good times.

[DixonHur 11017]

1 minute ago, RomaVicta said:

I just had a chilling thought. What if this is a return to out Latin American policies of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s?

Set up an autocrat who welcomes American corporations to exploit their resources and markets. The autocrat gets huge kickbacks, CIA protection, and death squad/torture training in Georgia.

Good times.

Sounds strikingly similar to our ME policy over that same time period,. And that worked out well for us.

[bad_teammate 13115]

3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I just had a chilling thought. What if this is a return to out Latin American policies of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s?

Set up an autocrat who welcomes American corporations to exploit their resources and markets. The autocrat gets huge kickbacks, CIA protection, and death squad/torture training in Georgia.

Good times.

Trump would be fine with everything in NK if he could build hotels on their beaches.

(And so would the Democrats lol)

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I just had a chilling thought. What if this is a return to out Latin American policies of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s?

Set up an autocrat who welcomes American corporations to exploit their resources and markets. The autocrat gets huge kickbacks, CIA protection, and death squad/torture training in Georgia.

Good times.

Not sure we ever left that model, on purpose that is.

[Fozzz 152]

The person wrote this is billed as a "smart" conservative.

Quote

Today was a step toward a Korean Peninsula united — under Pyongyang.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/06/singapore-summit-kim-jong-un-winning/

[bad_teammate 13115]

hahaha you fucking morons

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

 

[bad_teammate 13115]

"Actually they are a waste of time and money; very dangerous to international stabili --- wait what was that? --- The military co-operation between the US and South Korea is very important and will proceed uninterrupted..."

THE

BEST

PEOPLE

King of Deals

God Emperor

[kevwun 15572]

Blowing up his own deal in less than a day?  Someone must have told him Obama approved of it.

[LongestHorn 759]

2 hours ago, Mapache said:

Am I the only snowflake triggered by the American flag next to the Nork flag?  I'm sensitive.  

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

14 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Who could have possibly predicted Donald Trump would be all bluster in front of one audience and then walk back his promises when it was time to deal with a different audience?

Now, per Twitters, Pence is denying that he said that we will continue our exercises. So in about 12 hours we had a deal, and then we didn't, and now we do again. Wouldn't be believable on Veep. 

[EMAWesome 101]

47 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If the objective is to abandon the commitment to human rights and democracy promotion while emboldening ruthless dictators, then this was a great success.

Trump went all “Fire and Fury” to exacerbate a threat that wasn’t really much of a threat to begin with only to walk the United States back from the very brink he brought us to. 

Political brilliance. 

 

Also (for everyone bitching about this)notice the positions of the flags

[Dbeasy 14931]

If the objective is to abandon the commitment to human rights and democracy promotion while emboldening ruthless dictators, then this was a great success.
Trump went all “Fire and Fury” to exacerbate a threat that wasn’t really much of a threat to begin with only to walk the United States back from the very brink he brought us to. 
Political brilliance. 
 

Why does denuclearization have to be tied to human rights improvements at the same time?

[DixonHur 11017]

9 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

Also (for everyone bitching about this)notice the positions of the flags

Perhaps I'm reading this wrong.

Are you seriously equating North Korea with Cuba?   

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

12 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

Also (for everyone bitching about this)notice the positions of the flags

Advantage Obama. Tenfold. But nice try at a "But Obama!" distraction.

[Dahobbs 17408]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

 

Drug dealer strategy: first one’s free.

 

Oh, ok, so we gave North Korea something for free, you at least admit that. And the strategy going forward is going to be Trump saying "nuh uh, not really unless you behave"? And this is good how? What exactly are we getting out of this?

Oh, and let me say, that I actually think this is one of those things where if Trump actually got to build hotels and shit and North Korea, it would be a good thing for everyone involved. This may be one of those unique things where satisfying Trump's ego and the best interests of the nation/world can actually align.

Edited June 12, 2018 by Dahobbs

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Why does denuclearization have to be tied to human rights improvements at the same time?

Have you never cared about human rights? Or did you just stop caring when Trump won the presidency and declared that we don't care about promoting human rights and democracy around the world anymore?

Do you still believe in democracy?

That's a rhetorical question. I'm pretty sure I know the answer. RIP GOP. 

[wildcat09 29146]

15 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Why does denuclearization have to be tied to human rights improvements at the same time?

It doesn't, but there better fucking be denuclearization if we're going to ignore human rights.

[Dbeasy 14931]

Have you never cared about human rights? Or did you just stop caring when Trump won the presidency and declared that we don't care about promoting human rights and democracy around the world anymore?
Do you still believe in democracy?
That's a rhetorical question. I'm pretty sure I know the answer. RIP GOP. 

Obviously you haven’t read the thread or you’d know I’m not a Republican, and yet you didn’t give any reason why those two things had to be tied together at this point in time. So you must believe that concessions must always be tied to human rights changes. Is that what you are saying?

[Dbeasy 14931]

It doesn't, but there better fucking be denuclearization if we're going to ignore human rights.

Agree. Without denuclearization this whole thing is definitely a circle jerk.

[EMAWesome 101]

24 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Perhaps I'm reading this wrong.

Are you seriously equating North Korea with Cuba?   

Other than nuclear weapons, geography, and number of MLB level baseball players what are the differences between the two?  

[Chad Fuck 17455]

2 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

Other than nuclear weapons, geography, and number of MLB level baseball players what are the differences between the two?  

Nukes is a pretty big one.

Also rum.

[WhatTheBuck 28696]

8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Obviously you haven’t read the thread or you’d know I’m not a Republican, and yet you didn’t give any reason why those two things had to be tied together at this point in time. So you must believe that concessions must always be tied to human rights changes. Is that what you are saying?

I believe in human rights and democracy and that those are positive values that should be promoted around the world. The Republcan party used to stand for those values. Trump doesn't. You obviously don't. I also believe that by replying to you twice I've paid you more respect than you've earned. 

[Dbeasy 14931]

Perhaps I'm reading this wrong.
Are you seriously equating North Korea with Cuba?   

Exactly. They aren’t alike at all because Obama got major human rights concessions in exchange for opening Cuba. More seriously, that is an example of giving a concession that makes sense, in exchange for no human rights improvements. In fact I don’t think we got anything, except beach vacations and access to cigars.

[Dbeasy 14931]

I believe in human rights and democracy and that those are positive values that should be promoted around the world. The Republcan party used to stand for those values. Trump doesn't. You obviously don't. I also believe that by replying to you twice I've paid you more respect than you've earned. 

I believe those things too. And I agree that the Republican Party doesn’t stand for those values anymore either. What’s your point?

[27-25 2040]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

I just had a chilling thought. What if this is a return to out Latin American policies of the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s?

Set up an autocrat who welcomes American corporations to exploit their resources and markets. The autocrat gets huge kickbacks, CIA protection, and death squad/torture training in Georgia.

Good times.

Wait.  Are we talking about US policies with respect to other nations of the past, or are we talking about the US itself in the present and near future?

[DixonHur 11017]

10 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

Other than nuclear weapons, geography, and number of MLB level baseball players what are the differences between the two?  

"Other than nuclear weapons", is a pretty fucking big qualifier, so still not sure if serious...

But for one thing, Cuba is a major vacation destination and a trading partner for pretty much everyone else in the world except for the US.

Not sure how anyone could see them and NK as even remotely similar.