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LTtxfan

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Beau Vine
Beau Vine

Laughed until I cried...So how do I walk?  really got me.  

shadow_operative2.0
shadow_operative2.0

This throw deserves the MLB thread.   

Beau Vine
Beau Vine

So in 2009, my daughter and I were in Omaha at the CWS.  I got an email from her softball coach saying that they had a kid drop off the All-Star team and would she want to replace her?  But she'd have

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

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Posted
1 hour ago, txhorns said:

Can you provide evidence of this?

Post Spring Training 2020, you'd be hard pressed to find a non-Dodger/Yankee who has said a damned thing about it.  Most of the player comments since then have been about how the Astros were not the only team doing it, Votto being the first to come to mind.

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Helobious

Helobious 9448

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Post Spring Training 2020, you'd be hard pressed to find a non-Dodger/Yankee who has said a damned thing about it.  Most of the player comments since then have been about how the Astros were not the only team doing it, Votto being the first to come to mind.

Link? Votto said that, but I can’t seem to find this parade of other players voicing the same opinion as him like you assert. I also can’t find any Yankee/Dodger comments on the situation in the timeframe you mention. Typical Astros fan living in their fantasy world.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21840

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Post Spring Training 2020, you'd be hard pressed to find a non-Dodger/Yankee who has said a damned thing about it.  Most of the player comments since then have been about how the Astros were not the only team doing it, Votto being the first to come to mind.

5 seconds of googling

 

Mike Trout

“It’s sad for baseball,” the Angels’ Mike Trout said. "It’s tough. They cheated. I don’t agree with the punishments, the players not getting anything. It was a player-driven thing. It sucks, too, because guys’ careers have been affected. A lot of people lost jobs. It was tough.

“Me going up to the plate knowing what was coming? It would be fun up there. A lot of guys lost respect for some of the guys. 

“Obviously the GM got fired and Hinch got fired," Trout said of punishments for Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch. "But the players getting nothing, that’s definitely not right, for sure.”

“I think everybody wants it to be a clean, level playing field. I didn’t know it wasn’t until this stuff came out, and then you realize when we played at them at (Houston) or whatever, they were hitting a lot of balls. They’ve got a lot of great players over there for sure, but it was something different.”

 

Trevor Bauer (before he became  a Dodger)

“I’m not going to let them forget the fact that they are hypocrites, they are cheaters, they’ve stolen from a lot of other people and the game itself,” Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer said.

“They mocked everything about everyone who said they were doing something under the table or illegal or whatever,” he said, tossing a few expletives while adding, “Now you’re lying about your apology.”

“What did you expect from them? The entire time they had been super dismissive and it’s very obvious that they don’t think it affected the game. They feel like they were in the right. You can tell a fake apology,” he said.

Kris Bryant
“What a disgrace, just watching their apology (Friday),” the Cubs’ Kris Bryant said. “There’s no sincerity, no genuineness when it comes to it. I certainly know that if I messed up big in that way, I’d be the first one to let you know just how big of a mess of it was.”

He believes the tactics went back further than the 2017 season and thinks the Astros used buzzers inside their jerseys to indicate which pitches were being thrown.

“If they didn’t get caught, they’d still be doing it,” he said. “They’re only doing this apology because they got caught, and that’s it.”

Bryant even went as far to suggest Astros batters would be thrown at intentionally.

“If teams are going about it the right way, you know if you do get hit and you’re not going after people’s heads and stuff like that, I think they’re definitely going to experience some of that this year,” Bryant said.

Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis joined the chorus of critics before the Braves’ first full-squad workout of the spring, saying the Astros “need a beating.”

“It angers you, especially from a guy who has played the game the right way his whole career. No shortcuts,” Markakis, a 14-year veteran, said. “I know how hard preparing for this game is, and to see something like that, it’s damaging to baseball."

Jon Lester

Not only was Cubs left-hander Jon Lester upset that Astros players weren’t disciplined in the scandal, he took offense to Commissioner Rob Manfred’s reference to MLB’s ultimate team award as a “piece of metal.”

“That’s somebody who has never played our game,” Lester said Tuesday at Cubs camp. “You play for a reason. You play for that piece of metal. I’m very proud of the three I have. If that’s the way he feels, he needs to take his name off the trophy.

“I’m proud of (the trophies). A lot of years. A lot of hard work. Just to bring it down like that, I’m sure it hurt a lot of guys when they saw that, especially guys who haven’t won it that have been striving for years to try to get to it."

Lester won two World Series with the Red Sox in 2007 and 2013 before helping the Cubs end their 107-year championship drought in 2016.

“Guys were more or less disappointed that players didn’t get punished,” Lester said. “Regardless of what the manager, coach or whoever else did or (was) a part of it, there’s some punishment that needed to be handed down. And for whatever reason, (Manfred) chose not to do it.

“He’s the bossman. He makes those decisions. In those situations that played against that team in important games, you saw their emotions and gut reaction come out about it. It’s just a hard thing right now. That’s putting our game in a not-so-good place, but I’m hoping the other 29 teams go around that and (will) be better for the fans going forward.”

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Link? Votto said that, but I can’t seem to find this parade of other players voicing the same opinion as him like you assert. I also can’t find any Yankee/Dodger comments on the situation in the timeframe you mention. Typical Astros fan living in their fantasy world.

30 seconds of googling:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2871359-logan-morrison-so-many-mlb-teams-cheat-using-video-names-yankees-dodgers

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2879442-cubs-kris-bryant-says-astros-were-absolutely-not-only-mlb-team-stealing-signs

https://sports.yahoo.com/ex-mlb-catcher-erik-kratz-rockie-astros-sign-stealing-scheme-2018-mlb-234653785.html

And I know the opinion of guys like Joe Musgrove and Evan Gattis hold no weight with you, but they've openly discussed the same.

We can argue about the semantics of the word "comments" but the Joe Kelly shit and Judge's dumb fucking jacket are two examples of how those two teams have taken longer to move on than the rest of the league.  (Wasn't really even meant to be derogatory, obviously those two teams are the most upset.)

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22694

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

5 seconds of googling

 

Mike Trout

“It’s sad for baseball,” the Angels’ Mike Trout said. "It’s tough. They cheated. I don’t agree with the punishments, the players not getting anything. It was a player-driven thing. It sucks, too, because guys’ careers have been affected. A lot of people lost jobs. It was tough.

“Me going up to the plate knowing what was coming? It would be fun up there. A lot of guys lost respect for some of the guys. 

“Obviously the GM got fired and Hinch got fired," Trout said of punishments for Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch. "But the players getting nothing, that’s definitely not right, for sure.”

“I think everybody wants it to be a clean, level playing field. I didn’t know it wasn’t until this stuff came out, and then you realize when we played at them at (Houston) or whatever, they were hitting a lot of balls. They’ve got a lot of great players over there for sure, but it was something different.”

 

Trevor Bauer (before he became  a Dodger)

“I’m not going to let them forget the fact that they are hypocrites, they are cheaters, they’ve stolen from a lot of other people and the game itself,” Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer said.

“They mocked everything about everyone who said they were doing something under the table or illegal or whatever,” he said, tossing a few expletives while adding, “Now you’re lying about your apology.”

“What did you expect from them? The entire time they had been super dismissive and it’s very obvious that they don’t think it affected the game. They feel like they were in the right. You can tell a fake apology,” he said.

Kris Bryant
“What a disgrace, just watching their apology (Friday),” the Cubs’ Kris Bryant said. “There’s no sincerity, no genuineness when it comes to it. I certainly know that if I messed up big in that way, I’d be the first one to let you know just how big of a mess of it was.”

He believes the tactics went back further than the 2017 season and thinks the Astros used buzzers inside their jerseys to indicate which pitches were being thrown.

“If they didn’t get caught, they’d still be doing it,” he said. “They’re only doing this apology because they got caught, and that’s it.”

Bryant even went as far to suggest Astros batters would be thrown at intentionally.

“If teams are going about it the right way, you know if you do get hit and you’re not going after people’s heads and stuff like that, I think they’re definitely going to experience some of that this year,” Bryant said.

Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis joined the chorus of critics before the Braves’ first full-squad workout of the spring, saying the Astros “need a beating.”

“It angers you, especially from a guy who has played the game the right way his whole career. No shortcuts,” Markakis, a 14-year veteran, said. “I know how hard preparing for this game is, and to see something like that, it’s damaging to baseball."

Jon Lester

Not only was Cubs left-hander Jon Lester upset that Astros players weren’t disciplined in the scandal, he took offense to Commissioner Rob Manfred’s reference to MLB’s ultimate team award as a “piece of metal.”

“That’s somebody who has never played our game,” Lester said Tuesday at Cubs camp. “You play for a reason. You play for that piece of metal. I’m very proud of the three I have. If that’s the way he feels, he needs to take his name off the trophy.

“I’m proud of (the trophies). A lot of years. A lot of hard work. Just to bring it down like that, I’m sure it hurt a lot of guys when they saw that, especially guys who haven’t won it that have been striving for years to try to get to it."

Lester won two World Series with the Red Sox in 2007 and 2013 before helping the Cubs end their 107-year championship drought in 2016.

“Guys were more or less disappointed that players didn’t get punished,” Lester said. “Regardless of what the manager, coach or whoever else did or (was) a part of it, there’s some punishment that needed to be handed down. And for whatever reason, (Manfred) chose not to do it.

“He’s the bossman. He makes those decisions. In those situations that played against that team in important games, you saw their emotions and gut reaction come out about it. It’s just a hard thing right now. That’s putting our game in a not-so-good place, but I’m hoping the other 29 teams go around that and (will) be better for the fans going forward.”

You got so excited to compile this post that you forgot to read the first four words of mine.

 

Edit: can't believe I got sucked into this again.  Bowing out now, nobody wants to rehash any of this, especially in this thread.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Helobious

Helobious 9448

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

You got so excited to compile this post that you forgot to read the first four words of mine.

Interesting arbitrary cutoff you made up though. No Yankee/Dodger has commented on it at all since 8:00 AM today, I say they’ve all moved on. 
 

The Joe Kelly shit was hilarious, all the dudes at barstool, jomboy, anyone in the baseball social media world loved him for it. Astros fans were the only ones who got their feelings hurt. 
 

Scraps is right however. No ones ever making any headway in this argument and it’s not the thread for it. But DD started it. 

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WBT

WBT 20561

Posted
Posted

Home Runs Hit Out Of Dodger Stadium

Player Team Distance Pitcher Location Date
Giancarlo Stanton Miami 475 feet Mike Bolsinger Left field May 12, 2015
Mark McGwire St. Louis 483 feet Jamie Arnold Left-center May 22, 1999
Mike Piazza Dodgers 478 feet Frank Castillo (COL) Left field Sept. 21, 1997
Willie Stargell Pittsburgh 470 feet Andy Messersmith Right field May 8, 1973
Willie Stargell Pittsburgh 506 ft., 6 in. Alan Foster Right field Aug. 5, 1969

 

I don't know if that one counts since it bounced off the roof.  Statcast had it at 467.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21840

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Posted (edited)

Brutal when you are relying on the worst team in the NL beating the best team in the NL.  Fucking Dbacks.

By the way, Seager with 3 HRs in his last 5 ABs.  Going into free agency.  And a Boras client.  We may have to say goodbye.  He will be the next $300 mil guy.  Ok maybe not $300 mil,  but I’d bet at least $250 mil.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

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Posted
23 hours ago, ztejas said:

San Diego seems totally checked out. Kind of depressing.

What a comeback. Probably won't catch the Giants but you can at least have some nice momentum going into the WC. 

They showed on the Astros game game tonight. Dodgers are 40-13 in their last 53

guess how many games they’ve gained on the giants in that time?

 

 

Spoiler

1

 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Does Tampa have any incentive to try this weekend, other than to fuck with the Yankees? They locked up home field advantage right? WC game in Yankee stadium is looking like a formality.

2 wins to get to 100. That’s about it

they are the #1 in the AL and locked in behind SF and LA for 3rd overall for WS HFA purposes

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54210

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Posted

Stark:

Quote

C’mon. Was it really six months ago that Miguel Cabrera pounded that unforgettable Opening Day home run through the snowflakes? Seems like 20 minutes ago.

But now here we are, a couple of thousand baseball games, 38 no-hitters and the best 1919 Babe Ruth imitation ever later – and it’s that time again. Time for me to give out those annual end-of-season awards that always have North America saying to itself: “We can’t believe he got them all 100 percent right again!”

I’ve been waiting around all day for James Corden, James Shields, James Paxton, LeBron James, Kevin James, Susan Saint James, James and the Giant Peach, and, of course, James Bond to join me here in Raymond James Stadium for this awards ceremony. But since they’ve snubbed me again, as usual, I’ll just have to hand these things out myself. So … the envelopes, please.

NL MVP – Bryce Harper, Phillies  

An AL executive said this to me about Bryce Harper the other day, 100 percent unprompted, at the end of a long conversation in which I never brought up Harper’s name:

“What Bryce Harper has done, on a team that really shouldn’t be a playoff contender, is insane. This and Ohtani are the two things from this season we’re just not talking about enough.”

 This and Ohtani. That’s what he said. The more I thought about that afterward, the more it struck me that there’s a massive disconnect between what people inside baseball think about Bryce Harper and what your average fan thinks about him.

Inside the game, there is widespread recognition that Harper is clearly one of the top 10 players on earth. Outside that inner sanctum, and certainly outside Philadelphia, I’m fascinated by how little you hear any baseball fan say that. Ever.

We’ve spent a lot of time lately debating whether he’s overrated, underrated or so overrated, he’s underrated. But while all that’s been sucking up oxygen, Bryce Harper has had a fire-breathing, franchise-altering second half that is rattling the baseball Richter Scale.

Harper since the All-Star break:1.173 OPS, .700 SLUG, .473 OBP, 19 HR, 52 runs, 64 BB, 46 XBH

Players in the live-ball era who had a 1.170+ OPS, .700+ SLUG, .470+ OBP, 19+ HR, 50+ runs, 60+ BB, 46+ XBH in the second half:
Babe Ruth (5 times)
Lou Gehrig (1934)
Barry Bonds (2001)
Bryce Harper (2021)

So maybe you’re saying to yourself: That’s an arbitrary, cherry-picked collection of numbers designed to make this guy look good. Well, if it is, it’s only because I guess my definition of “arbitrary” or “cherry-picked” is “all the incredible numbers that jumped off the stat sheet.”

But the truth is, any of these numbers, or any combination, would be the stuff of true offensive behemoths. When they all appear on the same stat line, wow. How can you not look at them and shake your head?

Then the next question is: But does all that make him the MVP? I’ve thought about that question a lot, too. Here’s why I think it does.

First of all, it has nothing to do with how I feel about Juan Soto or Fernando Tatis Jr. I’ve already written this year that Tatis is positioned to be the face of baseball for a decade and that Soto is the 21st-century Ted Williams. This isn’t about any of that. It’s about this year.

And this year, I thought for five months that this was Tatis’ award to lose. Except now he’s lost it. He’s lost it by missing so much time with injuries. He’s lost it in a second half in which his team has careened from 17 games over .500 to a losing record. And he’s lost it because, well, here is how his second half compares with the MVP competition:

SECOND-HALF OPS
Soto: 1.195
Harper: 1.173
Tatis: .918

So Tatis now sits third on my list. But then why not Soto? Look, I can’t say this enough. Juan Soto is awesome. He’s a must-watch attraction every at-bat of every game. His second-half OPS is nearly identical to Harper’s. And Soto’s .533 second-half on-base percentage has been topped by only three hitters in the modern era – three guys named Bonds, Williams and Ruth.

I get goosebumps thinking of all of that. So save your Philly bias or you hate the Nationals or whatever other fictitious theories you have for why I’d take Harper over Soto for this award, in this season. I honestly hope Juan Soto wins 10 MVP awards before he’s done.

But should he win this one? That’s the question. It’s excruciatingly close. But … over this full season, Harper has outslugged Soto by 64 points (.607-.543), has 24 more extra-base hits (75-51) and twice as many doubles (40-20). And there’s no better measure of how he has lugged his team into contention than this:

SECOND-HALF OPS
Bryce Harper: 1.173
All other Phillies: .688

I bring that up because, when an MVP race is this close, I still believe numbers mean more when they come in the context of some kind of postseason push. It’s obviously not Soto’s fault that his team unraveled and sold off his supporting cast. But it happened.

Baseball-reference.com now has a metric called Championship Win Probability Added. It measures how much a player improves the chances of his team winning a World Series. Harper leads the entire sport this year. Soto isn’t even on the leader board.

Again, that’s not Soto’s fault. But this is an MVP conversation. So if this is about value, that’s one more separator.

In the history of baseball, only one player has ever won an MVP award for two different teams before his 30th birthday: Barry Bonds. You know who deserves to become the second? Bryce Harper.

MY MVP “BALLOT”: 1) Harper, 2) Soto, 3) Fernando Tatis Jr., 4) Brandon Crawford, 5) Paul Goldschmidt, 6) Austin Riley, 7) Max Muncy, 😎 Freddie Freeman, 9) Tyler O’Neill, 10) Willy Adames.

(Can’t believe I ran out of room for: Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Trea Turner, Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos, Max Scherzer, Brandon Belt, Nolan Arenado, Ozzie Albies, Bryan Reynolds, Adam Duvall, Joey Votto and more!)

AL MVP – Shohei Ohtani, Angels

We still don’t get it. We’re still debating all the wrong things. We’ve been watching the great Shohei Ohtani produce the most remarkable season of our lifetimes – and possibly not just in his sport – and we’re still stuck on yesteryear stuff like “but look at his batting average” or “what if Vladdy wins the Triple Crown?”

Nope. Sorry. Doesn’t apply. Not this year. Not to this man. Not to this award.

Most years, on most planets, Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s season would be MVP material. But he’s not in a fair fight. The offensive numbers – yessir, they’re close, and Vlad has eked ahead:

  HR SLG OPS
Guerrero Jr.
46
.596
.998
Ohtani
45
.594
.964

But then there’s that other Ohtani. In his spare time, he has this cool hobby, remember? And in that hobby, he’s accumulated more Wins Above Replacement, just as a pitcher (4.1), than Adam Wainwright, Charlie Morton, Julio Urías or literally 800 other guys.

So, sorry, Vladdy. You’ve been tremendous. You’re just going head-to-head with a superhero. You’re trying to out-MVP a human who is just way too good at both hitting and pitching baseballs. Here’s exactly how good he is at both those things:

OPS+: Ohtani is at 158. Better than Aaron Judge (150)! Or Paul Goldschmidt (144)! Or Freddie Freeman (133)!

ERA+: Ohtani is at 141 in his other life. Better than Gerrit Cole (133)!

HOME RUNS: 45 homers. More than Mookie Betts and Anthony Rizzo combined (44)!

TRIPLES: Eight triples (leading the American League!). More than noted triples machines Whit Merrifield and Trea Turner combined (six)!

STEALS: 26 stolen bases. More than former SB champs Jonathan Villar and Billy Hamilton combined (23)!

EXTRA BASES: 78 extra-base hits. More than Vlad (75) or Bryce (also 75)!

STRIKEOUTS: Back on the mound, a 29.3-percent strikeout rate. Better than Walker Buehler (25.3)!

NO SLUG ZONE: .351 opponent slugging by the poor folks who have to hit against him. To once again steal a great stat from MLB.com’s Andrew Simon, Ohtani could allow a home run to the next 34 hitters he pitches to – and they still wouldn’t have as high a slugging percentage as he does (.594)!

So how is Vlad (or anyone) supposed to compete with that? Impossible.

Vlad’s season: Spectacular. Ohtani’s season: Ohtanic! (H/T to my Starkville co-host, Doug Glanville.) And we all know the synonym for Ohtanic. It’s M-V-P.

MY MVP “BALLOT”: 1) Ohtani, 2) Guerrero, 3) Marcus Semien, 4) Carlos Correa, 5) Aaron Judge 6) Jose Ramírez, 7) Matt Olson, 😎 Cedric Mullins, 9) Salvador Perez, 10) Mitch Haniger.

(Can’t believe I ran out of room for: Brandon Lowe, Jose Abreu, Gerrit Cole, Robbie Ray, Kyle Tucker, José Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Giancarlo Stanton and more!) 

NL Least Valuable Player (LVP) – Cody Bellinger, Dodgers

 I’m not sure I’ve ever picked any player as an MVP and LVP this close together. But I’m doing it now, because it’s been One of Those Years for the 2019 NL MVP, Cody Bellinger.

• His OPS+ is 47! That’s not 147. That’s an actual 47. If it sinks much further, he could tie or beat the record for lowest OPS+ by any former MVP with 300-plus plate appearances in a season, currently held – for more than half a century – by Elston Howard (who had a 42 OPS+ in 1967).

• Did you know Bellinger hit .152/.276/.222 out of the cleanup hole? And just for the record, that’s historically not good. According to baseball-reference.com/Stathead, that’s the lowest slugging percentage by any NL cleanup hitter (100 PA or more) since Les (Is Not More) Scarcella – in 1939!

• Baseball-reference also tells us Bellinger has been worth minus-1.7 Wins Above Replacement! And that makes him the least valuable player in the National League – literally. If we’re going to use WAR to decide who’s most valuable, might as well use it the other way around, too, right? So the LVP Awards Committee hereby thanks baseball-reference.

I understand that much of this is injury-related. On the other hand, what was the biggest of those injuries? That would be offseason shoulder surgery. And why did Bellinger need offseason shoulder surgery? Because of the Strangest But Truest injury of the 2020 postseason – his shoulder-dislocating, leaping forearm bump with Enrique Hernández in Game 7 of the NLCS. So come to think of it, that’s probably worth a few LVP bonus points unto itself.

MY LVP “BALLOT”: 1) Bellinger, 2) Francisco Lindor, 3) Didi Gregorius.

AL LVP – The Orioles (most of them) 

 I’ve handed out many a group Cy Yuk award. But I’m almost certain this is my first group LVP award. I didn’t expect to wind up here. But in a season with no truly deserving single AL LVP, why not “honor” a team that has pretty much cornered the market on tanking-inspired ineptitude.

 It should be obvious that I’m not including everybody on this roster. Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías – they’re all above this sort of LVP reproach. And I’ll try my best not to single out any individual players, because what the heck. As those two wins over the Red Sox proved this week, they were trying, even if management had other ideas about the value of actually winning baseball games. But as a group effort, it’s hard to beat this one.

WAR GAMES: The Orioles had 21 position players who played in 20 games or more. Exactly three of them were even worth one Win Above Replacement (or more) – Mullins, Hays and Urías. Only four AL teams in the 60-year expansion era have ever had fewer one-win players in a full season – Todd Cruz’s 1983 Mariners, Brian Kingman’s 1979 A’s, Jack Heidemann’s 1971 Indians and Paul Casanova’s 1968 Senators (all with two apiece).

MENDOZA WATCH: These Orioles also had eight of those 21 position players with a batting average under .200. And only one AL team in the expansion era ever had more sub-Mendoza bats than that – Lenny Randle’s 1972 Rangers (with 10).

BUT THAT’S NOT ALL: Did you know this team had eight position players who played in at least 20 games and were worth minus Wins Above Replacement? … Or that the Orioles went 1-54 in the many, many games where they never got around to scoring three times (or more)? … Or that they ran 19 players out there this year who were claimed on waivers? … And I should also mention that the position players weren’t even their biggest problem! (It’s one thing to finish last in the major leagues in ERA. It’s another to be a whole run worse than the next-worst staff in the major leagues.) 

As group LVP efforts go, it doesn’t get much more compelling than that. So here’s to the Orioles, the first LVP ensemble ever to take a major-league field.

MY LVP “BALLOT”: 1) Orioles, 2) Andrelton Simmons, 3) Gleyber Torres

NL Cy Young – Corbin Burnes, Brewers

 I’ll admit I wrestled with this one. Even pushed back this column by a day to see how Max Scherzer fared in his final regular-season start. But now that my editors need me to make up my mind and write this thing already, I only need one word to sum up why I’d vote for Corbin Burnes if I had to cast a vote today:

Historic.

We’ve never seen a season like this. I keep coming back to that. Here’s why:

THE RATE-STAT TRIPLE CROWN – This could still change because it’s close. But as of this writing Burnes leads the league in strikeout rate (12.55 per 9 IP), walk rate (1.80 per 9 IP) and home run rate (0.33 per 9 IP). How many pitchers have ever led their league in all three in the same season? That would be none.

THE FIP-PLE CROWN – With one regular-season start remaining, Burnes’ FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) stands at a sensational 1.55. That would be lower than 1968 Bob Gibson (1.78), lower than 1963 Sandy Koufax (1.85), lower than 1915 Grover Cleveland Alexander 1.82), lower than any starting pitcher in National League history, dating back to 1913, when earned runs became an official stat.

The current NL record: 1.69, by 1985 Dwight Gooden. The only pitcher with a lower FIP in NL/AL history: 1999 Pedro Martínez (1.39). That kind of gets your attention!

THE UNHITTABILITY/UNTOUCHABILITY FACTOR – Speaking of 1999 Pedro, it’s only him and the 2021 edition of Corbin Burnes whom you’ll find on this scale of domination:

More than 12 strikeouts per nine innings … fewer than two walks per nine innings … home-run rate under .5 homers per nine innings … ERA and FIP lower than 2.40.

 

PITCHER K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP
Pedro Martínez, 1999
13.2
1.56
0.38
2.07
1.39
Burnes, 2021
12.55
1.80
0.33
2.29
1.55


(Qualifiers only, since 1913; Source: baseball-reference.com/Stathead)

 

 So if you’re in a club with Pedro and only Pedro, I’d say there’s no more need to debate whether you’ve been dominant enough to win a Cy Young. The only question now is; Have you pitched enough?

That, of course, is the only issue with Corbin Burnes. Pedro squashed those hitters’ souls in nearly 50 more innings (213 1/3) than Burnes (165). And in a season where innings and volume were extra valuable, coming off the 60-game mini-season last year, it’s Burnes’ lack of innings and lack of volume that made me think long and hard about this.

Zack Wheeler (2.78 ERA) has been great – and faced 201 more hitters than Burnes (849-648). Walker Buehler (2.49) has been great – and pitched to nearly 150 more hitters (795). Scherzer (2.46) missed some time early, but he, too, has 14 1/3 more innings and 45 more batters faced (693).

How much should we weigh those extra workloads? I thought that was worth considering. So here is what their season stats would look like if they’d all had roughly the same workloads. If none of them had ever been asked to throw a pitch after the sixth inning this year, their numbers would look like this:

PITCHER ERA THRU 6 GAMES >6 IP BF AFTER 6TH
Wheeler
2.32
20
121
Burnes
2.34
9
45
Scherzer
2.60
11
58
Buehler
2.72
17
69

So obviously, the Cy Young case of Wheeler in particular has been damaged by the innings he was asked to absorb by the Phillies. It’s not his fault or Joe Girardi’s fault that this intricate algebraic formula applied: Need to win (+) bullpen that can’t be trusted. But now it’s been left to the Cy Young electorate to figure out what to do about it.

FanGraphs says Burnes was worth the most Wins Above Replacement. Baseball-reference says Wheeler was most valuable, at least by WAR. So if they can’t even agree, I’m not sure how we’re supposed to. In the end, I was swayed by Burnes’ historic dominance. But if you think the Cy Young is any of those other three guys, you know what I’d say? Great choice.

MY CY YOUNG “BALLOT”: 1) Burnes, 2) Wheeler, 3) Scherzer, 4) Buehler, 5) Brandon Woodruff.

(Can’t believe I ran out of room for: Kevin Gausman, Adam Wainwright, Julio Urías, Charlie Morton, Josh Hader and more.)

AL Cy Young – Robbie Ray, Blue Jays

Full disclosure: I also waited a day to make this pick because I needed one more Gerrit Cole start to help me sort this out. After Cole punched out 15 Angels on Sept. 1, I was sure he’d wrapped up this award. But then the rest of September happened:

PITCHER GS W-L ERA IP ER
Cole
5
2-Feb
6.15
26.1
18
Ray
6
2-Mar
3.44
34
13

OK, so that changed a little. Now we’re looking at a scenario in which Ray seems likely to lead the league in ERA (2.84) and innings pitched (193.1). And for more than 60 years of Cy Young elections, that’s been about as proven formula as any for how to win one of these trophies.

In the history of this award, 19 pitchers have led their league in both categories. All but two have won the Cy Young: 2008 Johan Santana and 2001 Freddy Garcia. They each finished third, for reasons we can sum up pithily as “wins.”

You can still make a case for Cole, who seems positioned to join Curt Schilling, Chris Sale and Adam Wainwright in the I Can’t Believe He Hasn’t Won a Cy Young Club. This would be Cole’s fourth top-five Cy Young finish without ever winning. So one of these years – but probably not this one.

Even after his rough September, Cole still has a slightly better strikeout rate (12. 06 per 9 IP) and opponent OPS (.639) than Ray. And if you’re a FIP fan, Cole has a significant edge there (2.91, to Ray’s 3.68).

But FIP is really a metric that tells us what should have happened. And I’ve always felt we should vote on these awards based on what actually did happen. So you know what did happen in the American League this season? Robbie Ray outpitched everyone else who took the mound.

MY CY YOUNG “BALLOT”: 1) Ray, 2) Cole, 3) Lance Lynn, 4) Nathan Eovaldi, 5) Carlos Rodón.

(Can’t believe I ran out of room for: José Berríos, Lance McCullers Jr., Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Liam Hendriks and more!)

NL Cy Yuk — Jake Arrieta, Yukked Up Cubs/Padres

The Jake Arrieta of 2015 was a modern-day Bob Gibson. Did he really have a 0.86 ERA over his last 20 starts? Unbelievable. And that’s what Cy Youngs are made of.

But the Jake Arrieta of 2021? That guy was more like a modern-day Nick Bierbrodt. A 7.39 ERA for two teams who were banking on any semblance of that old 2015 Jake magic? That’s what Cy Yuks are made of.

This Jake Arrieta couldn’t keep the Cubs afloat, and then couldn’t keep the Padres afloat. His 6.68 ERA in 20 starts for the Cubs was the worst in a season by any Cubs pitcher in the live-ball era who made that many starts. His 10.95 ERA in four starts for the Padres goes down as the worst career ERA in Padres history by a pitcher who made at least four starts.

And then there’s this: His 7.39 ERA for the two of them combined was the highest ERA in history by any former Cy Young winner who made this many starts in any season. (The old record: 7.29, by Doug Drabek in 1998.) Once, there was a time when watching Arrieta do his thing was so much fun. But that time wasn’t this time.

MY CY YUK “BALLOT”: 1) Arrieta, 2) Patrick Corbin, 3) Brad Hand (with extra bi-leagual credit for his work with the Blue Jays).

AL Cy Yuk – Andrew Heaney, Yukked Up Angels/Yankees

Any Cy Yuk can Yuk up one team in a season. But here in 2021, we’re “honoring” those who found a way to Yuk up two teams. So Andrew Heaney can thank Jake Arrieta for paving the way to his first trip ever into the Cy Yuk “winner’s” circle.

By the time the Yankees traded for Heaney in July, they weren’t expecting him to show up and be Andy Pettitte. But five starts and seven rocky relief appearances later, Heaney had made all sorts of Yankees history that nobody had in mind.

Home run history: 13 HR allowed, 35 2/3 IP. He may not have been out there a whole lot, but Heaney served up nearly twice as many home runs in those 35.2 innings as Pettitte once allowed (seven) in the entire 1997 season, in 240.2 innings. That gopherball rate – one every 2.7 innings and every 12 batters faced – was easily the worst in the history of pinstripes.

Yankees trade-target history: 7.32 ERA as a Yankee, 5.27 ERA for the team that traded him. It isn’t often that the Yankees make a midseason trade for a starting pitcher with a 5.00 ERA or worse. But it’s less often that the guy they trade for then has an even higher ERA for them.

In fact, I could only find one other time in the live-ball era when that happened, at least when it involved a pitcher who then made at least four starts for the Yankees. And that other time was a mere 83 years ago! The culprit back then: Wes Ferrell – 6.28 ERA for the 1938 Senators, followed by an 8.10 ERA in four starts for the Yankees.

Luckily for Wes Ferrell, nobody had invented any Cy Yuk awards for him to win back then. But unfortunately for Andrew Heaney…no such luck!

MY CY YUK “BALLOT”: 1) Heaney, 2) Matt Harvey, 3) Dallas Keuchel 

NL Rookie of the Year – Jonathan India, Reds

First item of business: Full disclosure. I’m a National League rookie-of-the-year voter, so I’m not permitted to reveal my complete ballot. But that doesn’t mean I can’t discuss how I’m leaning and why. So if that works for you, it works for me.

Let’s start with this. Have you ever watched Jonathan India play? He’s not just a baseball player. He’s a winner. He has taken 22 pitches off his shins, elbows and other assorted body parts, all in the name of winning. The energy he plays with, the extra bases he’s relentlessly taking, the importance he so obviously attaches to every inning of every game – it’s the way winners play.

But there’s also substance to go with that style. He’ll head into the final weekend of the season with a .377 on-base percentage (two points below Joey Votto), 96 runs scored, 56 extra-base hits and 234 times on base. Even if we lower those bars to .370/95 runs/50 XBH/200 times on base, there are only eight other rookies in the division-play era who have reached those thresholds. You’ve probably heard of them:

Aaron Judge, Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Fred Lynn, Derek Jeter, Mark McGwire and Kevin Seitzer.

So much as I admire the fabulous season by Marlins ace Trevor Rogers, why do I think Jonathan India is about to become the first Reds second baseman to win a rookie-of-the-year award since Pete Rose? That about covers it!

ROOKIES IN THE ARGUMENT: India, Rogers, Dylan Carlson, Ian Anderson, Ke’bryan Hayes, Jazz Chisolm, Patrick Wisdom, Edmundo Sosa (among others).

AL Rookie of the Year – Randy Arozarena, Rays

There has never been a rookie of the year quite like Randy Arozarena. You’ve noticed that, right? In normal times, guys don’t play for two teams, show up in two postseasons and win an LCS MVP award before their rookie season. But the whole world has gone off the rails these last two years. So maybe this dude is the perfect rookie of the year for our times.

It’s also kind of humorous that Arozarena’s rookie-of-the-year season, if that’s what it turns into, won’t be nearly as stupendous as his pre-rookie postseason, when he merely hit 10 home runs in 20 games and spent four weeks hypnotizing us into thinking he was the Willie Mays of the 21st century.

Well, he hasn’t been that guy this year. But you know what he proved? That none of that was just some random burst of October quirkiness. I look for staying power in my rookies of the year. And Arozarena has it. Let’s compare his second half to the player viewed as his chief position-player competitor for this award, Texas’ Adolis García:

  AVG OBP SLG OPS
Arozarena
.307
.384
.554
.938
García
.212
.256
.378
.635

I found it kind of hard to ignore that 300-point gap in OPS. I think it’s also safe to say Arozarena is a more impactful all-around player than Baltimore’s Ryan Mountcastle. So for me, this actually came down to Arozarena versus Astros pitcher Luis Garcia, who has had a fantastic season.

It’s always been impossible to compare pitchers to hitters for this award. And I know this isn’t fair to any pitcher, but … When it’s this close, it’s hard to pick a guy who plays in 30 games over a guy who is going to play in 140 games.

I just know this whole group is lucky that Wander Franco, the runaway rookie of the half-year, has only played 66 games in the big leagues – because if he’d arrived in May instead of July, we’d be having a whole different discussion.

MY BALLOT: 1) Arozarena, 2) Luis Garcia, 3) Adolis García, 4) Mountcastle, 5) Emmanuel Clase.

NL Manager of the Year – Gabe Kapler, Giants

 Back in March, Baseball Prospectus unleashed its ever-popular PECOTA projection of Gabe Kapler’s 2021 Giants – and decided they were bound for 75 wins. That was fewer than a Diamondbacks team that has gone on to lose 108 times! Not to mention fewer than the Angels, Twins and Cubs – three teams currently sitting at a combined 46 games under .500.

So that projection went smoothly. Obviously, there are many reasons that any projection can turn out to be off by a mere 30 wins. The manager is only one of them. But can’t we all agree that this wasn’t an easy team to steer toward 105 wins? So of course Gabe Kapler is the NL’s manager of the year, because how the heck could he not be?

Of the 15 players on these Giants who got at least 200 plate appearances, 11 of them have celebrated their 30th birthday. The average age of this position-player group is nearly 31, oldest in the big leagues. Wilmer Flores might lead this team in games played. (Wilmer Flores!) The Giants have hit the most homers in the major leagues, even though not a single hitter on their team ranks in the top 40 in the sport in homers. Try to find the conventional wisdom that explains any of that. Good luck.

These Giants also have hit 17 pinch-hit home runs. Every one of their eight most used relief pitchers has an ERA of 3.24 or lower. And they’re going to finish just behind the much more ballyhooed rotations of the Dodgers and Brewers in starting-pitcher ERA, even though this is practically an entire rotation of Reds castoffs. Amazing.

Much of that is a tribute to all the puzzle pieces the manager dropped into the right place at the right time – and to the exhaustive attention to detail from Kapler and maybe the most unique and innovative coaching staff ever assembled. But also…

It’s a reflection of the maturation of Gabe Kapler, to understand that those furious nightly maneuvers on his managerial chess board in Philadelphia weren’t really the ticket to true managerial success. As he tells me and Doug Glanville on the next edition of Starkville, he now gets that “the harmony of the clubhouse (and) the comfort level of the players” can actually be more important than any in-game strategic move, even if the math tries to convince him otherwise. And his team is a reflection of that.

Did you know Bruce Bochy managed the Giants for 13 seasons, won three World Series and somehow won zero Manager of the Year awards? I’m still not sure how that happened. But I know one thing. A decade or so from now, we won’t be saying that about the manager who succeeded him.

MY MANAGER-OF-THE-YEAR “BALLOT”: 1) Kapler, 2) Craig Counsell, 3) Mike Shildt, 4) Brian Snitker, 5) Dave Roberts.

AL Manager of the Year – Kevin Cash, Rays 

If I were an actual voter for this award, here’s what I would do: I’d wait until after the final game is played. And if the Mariners make the playoffs, I’d cast this vote for Scott Servais, for ending a two-decade postseason drought by finding a way to win 90-plus games with a team that finishes with a minus-40 run differential. No precedent for that.

But since all I’m doing is writing an awards column, I’m voting for Kevin Cash, in part just to make a point.

Here is how us dopey writers normally vote for these manager-of-the-year awards: Let’s see. What team did I get the most wrong in my preseason predictions? Boy, that guy must have done an awesome job. I’ll vote for him!

Look, I get why we vote that way. But in way too many years, we use that logic to make ourselves feel better – but avoid voting for the folks who are actually the best managers in the game. So why am I casting this (not an actual) vote for Kevin Cash? That’s why.

How many managers could win nearly 100 games with a team that’s missing all three top-of-the-rotation starters from a World Series team … that is currently minus every reliever on that World Series team who saved more than one regular-season game … that traded away its most important clubhouse energizer (Willy Adames) and most dependable reliever (Diego Castillo) in the middle of this season … that has lost 25 different pitchers to the injured list (25!) this year and had to roll out 38 pitchers (38!) to get through the season – breaking the team record by seven?

Only managers of the year do stuff like that. So please don’t tell me the manager of the Rays doesn’t deserve this award. Of course he does – whether he wins it or not.

MY MANAGER-OF-THE-YEAR “BALLOT”: 1) Cash, 2) Servais, 3) A.J. Hinch, 4) Charlie Montoyo, 5) Dusty Baker.

 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6314

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

Brutal when you are relying on the worst team in the NL beating the best team in the NL.  Fucking Dbacks.

By the way, Seager with 3 HRs in his last 5 ABs.  Going into free agency.  And a Boras client.  We may have to say goodbye.  He will be the next $300 mil guy.  Ok maybe not $300 mil,  but I’d bet at least $250 mil.

Seager’s free agency will be interesting. I’ve kind of expected the Dodgers to keep him, but are they going to just significantly exceed the luxury tax forever? I know they probably could, but that doesn’t mean they will. Acquiring Turner gives them some flexibility, as he can move over to SS, but I believe he’s a FA after next season…maybe they try to lock him up? Anyway, Seager and Correa are the same age and similarly productive players, both with a fairly significant injury history (though Correa hasn’t missed any time this season or in last year’s mini-season). They are sort of difficult to value if you try to factor in missed time in their 20s and how much you’re willing to invest in their long-term futures. Not sure which one is “safer.” 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

Brutal when you are relying on the worst team in the NL beating the best team in the NL.  Fucking Dbacks.

 

Or you could have gone 17-2 against them like the Giants did, instead of 16-3.

and gone 10-9 against the Giants instead of 9-10.

and then boom, you’re 1 game up.

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