2021 MLB Thread

[Sbbruin 21865]

On 2/13/2021 at 6:07 PM, shadow_operative2.0 said:

2/>$30M for Justin Turner back to LAD. 

$34 mil., but the short term is key.  Turner is an important part of this team.

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

Pillar to Mets on a one-year deal. 

[Scraps 13570]

Also the Blue Jays traded Derek Fisher to Brew Crew for cash and PTBNL

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

 

 

[Horny Bull 2766]

 

[TonyTexas 10519]

That Tatis deal is nuts. He looks like he might be the real deal but he has less than a full season in the bigs. 

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

Fuck, that is rather massive. 

[Wulaw Horn 19141]

47 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

That Tatis deal is nuts. He looks like he might be the real deal but he has less than a full season in the bigs. 

If there are no opt outs for Tatis. I think it’s genius. It’s only 23 million a year AAV. That’s so cheap for an MVP level guy. If you can hit like that, at that age, the number of guys that don’t become HOF types that are positional players is just really small. Like absent some sort of major injury he’s gonna be awesome that whole time. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

Dunedin Jays this season, at least into May. 

[PGFrog 25]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If there are no opt outs for Tatis. I think it’s genius. It’s only 23 million a year AAV. That’s so cheap for an MVP level guy. If you can hit like that, at that age, the number of guys that don’t become HOF types that are positional players is just really small. Like absent some sort of major injury he’s gonna be awesome that whole time. 

Isn't the average MLB career just under 6 years?    

Sure someone has done the math for the Padres, but that is a pretty big assumption that even ten years into the contract you still want to keep him around.  How many guys have stayed above average to average in all areas of their game for 10+ years?

[Wulaw Horn 19141]

Just now, PGFrog said:

Isn't the average MLB career just under 6 years?    

Sure someone has done the math for the Padres, but that is a pretty big assumption that even ten years into the contract you still want to keep him around.  How many guys have stayed above average to average in all areas of their game for 10+ years?

Guys that are all star types at 21 years old?  Like almost all of them (positional players- not pitchers). 
go look at people productive at that age and it’s a who’s who of baseball royalty. 

[PGFrog 25]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Guys that are all star types at 21 years old?  Like almost all of them (positional players- not pitchers). 
go look at people productive at that age and it’s a who’s who of baseball royalty. 

The question isn't his ability to produce, but how long will he produce at an elite level?

In 1977 Ellis Valentine was a 22-year budding star in the same outfield as a 22-year old Andre Dawson.  Ellis had two more big years and then never came close to those numbers while Dawson had a very good and long career. 

Trust what you are saying, but the 14-years just seems like a really long time for a guy who plays a demanding position in the field and who swings as hard as he does to stay healthy and in all honesty stay motivated knowing he has that security.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19141]

1 minute ago, PGFrog said:

The question isn't his ability to produce, but how long will he produce at an elite level?

In 1977 Ellis Valentine was a 22-year budding star in the same outfield as a 22-year old Andre Dawson.  Ellis had two more big years and then never came close to those numbers while Dawson had a very good and long career. 

Trust what you are saying, but the 14-years just seems like a really long time for a guy who plays a demanding position in the field and who swings as hard as he does to stay healthy and in all honesty stay motivated knowing he has that security.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It could obviously go horribly wrong for them. It’s a bet I’d make if I were them as long as there was not an opt out. 

[TonyTexas 10519]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If there are no opt outs for Tatis. I think it’s genius. It’s only 23 million a year AAV. That’s so cheap for an MVP level guy. If you can hit like that, at that age, the number of guys that don’t become HOF types that are positional players is just really small. Like absent some sort of major injury he’s gonna be awesome that whole time. 

I think you are jumping the gun on the MVP talk. The guy has 555 at bats. He’s far from proven. Would you be ok with the Astros giving Yordan Alvarez a similar contract?  Yordan actually has better stats in only 200 less at bats. 
The AAV is a little deceiving because the Padres are giving up 4 years of control at significantly less than $92mm. You can tack on that difference to the final 10 years and the real AAV will be significantly higher than $23mm. 

[Wulaw Horn 19141]

Just now, TonyTexas said:

I think you are jumping the gun on the MVP talk. The guy has 555 at bats. He’s far from proven. Would you be ok with the Astros giving Yordan Alvarez a similar contract?  Yordan actually has better stats in only 200 less at bats. 
The AAV is a little deceiving because the Padres are giving up 4 years of control at significantly less than $92mm. You can tack on that difference to the final 10 years and the real AAV will be significantly higher than $23mm. 

I wanted to offer Correa something like this at 21. 
No on Yordan- he’s got too much injury history and no defensive value. He’s also older. 

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

 

Rough on the Marlins. 

[Player 4575]

Gotdamn Baltimore Blutarskys

Zero. Point. Zero.

[Wulaw Horn 19141]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2019/9/22/20877991/ranking-the-best-age-20-rookie-seasons-trout-tatis-guerrero-williams
 

tatis would have been top 5 on this list but for an injury that had him miss half a month. My he entire top 5 is HOfers. 10 HOF in the top 25, plus some other guys who were really good for a long period of time. 
All contracts are a crap shoot for the team. But, this is about as good a bet as you can lay down if you are the small market Pads. 
Like the thinking for them. Like the thinking for Tatis- he only gets one career and you have to protect against worst possible outcomes in my opinion. He’s got generational wealth and he’s got a no trade. 

[WBT 20645]

I agree with Wulaw.  Here are the top 20-year-old and 21-year-old seasons by wRC+.  Most of these guys you would be happy to lock up.  Also, add that he's a SS and can slide over to 3rd or 1st and probably be ok when he gets older.  It's a big risk but if you're the Padres and don't do something like this, he's gone as a FA after his team control is up.

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by WBT

[Helobious 9464]

Tatis is a star and the future face of the game. Fun to watch, charismatic, bilingual, he’s another A-Rod. He’s already gonna be on the cover of The Show this year. A deal at that AAV is a no brainer for the Padres. 
 

Trout is the much better player but for whatever reason has decided to leave untold millions in marketing dollars on the table that Tatis is more than happy to pick up. 

[Tribe171 10]

21 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If there are no opt outs for Tatis. I think it’s genius. It’s only 23 million a year AAV. That’s so cheap for an MVP level guy. If you can hit like that, at that age, the number of guys that don’t become HOF types that are positional players is just really small. Like absent some sort of major injury he’s gonna be awesome that whole time. 

I don't know how the money is divided by the year but if it's close to even then the AAV is not large enough to completely tank the Padres contention hopes down the road. That said, I'm not sure how well Tatis will age. His game is centered around explosive athleticism, and that typically does not age well without PEDs. And if he suffers major injuries, he could go the way of Grady Sizemore.

[Wulaw Horn 19141]

51 minutes ago, Tribe171 said:

I don't know how the money is divided by the year but if it's close to even then the AAV is not large enough to completely tank the Padres contention hopes down the road. That said, I'm not sure how well Tatis will age. His game is centered around explosive athleticism, and that typically does not age well without PEDs. And if he suffers major injuries, he could go the way of Grady Sizemore.

Look at the chart that WBT posted. Everyone in the top 10 (he’s 9th) is a HOF other than ARod, and he would be one, obviously, if not for the roids. 
you can’t lay your bet down better. It’s like doubling down when you have a 10 and the dealer shows 6. Do you always win?  No. But you know you got your bet down at the right time in the right place. 

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

Quote

The Los Angeles Dodgers are causing oddsmakers to post numbers that the betting market hasn't seen since the New York Yankees' dynasty of the late 1990s.

Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill on Thursday opened the Dodgers' 2021 season-win total at 104.5. That's tied with the 1999 Yankees for the highest win total at sportsbooks in the past 32 seasons, according to odds archive SportsOddsHistory.com.

In addition to the reigning World Series champion Dodgers, four other teams also opened with win totals of 90 or higher -- the Yankees (97), Atlanta Braves (92), San Diego Padres (92) and Chicago White Sox (90.5).

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the other end of the spectrum and opened with a win total of 58, tied with the 1993 expansion Florida Marlins for the lowest win total in the past 32 seasons. The Colorado Rockies have the next-lowest opening win total this season at 62.5.

Other notable totals at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill include the New York Mets (89), defending American League champion Tampa Bay Rays (88.5), Houston Astros(88), St. Louis Cardinals (88), Philadelphia Phillies (81.5), Chicago Cubs (79.5) and Boston Red Sox (77).

FanGraphs & Vegas clearly don’t agree on Tampa. 

Full list in link

[shadow_operative 15932]

16 hours ago, WBT said:

I agree with Wulaw.  Here are the top 20-year-old and 21-year-old seasons by wRC+.  Most of these guys you would be happy to lock up.  Also, add that he's a SS and can slide over to 3rd or 1st and probably be ok when he gets older.  It's a big risk but if you're the Padres and don't do something like this, he's gone as a FA after his team control is up.

 

speaking of Mike Trout, is there a more glaring example of how out of touch the MLB is and has been than Trout's barely visible existence? when you think about Babe Ruth, Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Wayne Gretzky, Jim Brown, Pele, Messi, and so on- these guys are all larger than life figures in their sports, especially when they are/were active players. even guys like Albert Pujols and Ichiro had a MUCH bigger imprint on the game and its fans during their ascendency/primes, and yet Mike Trout, who is on a path that will leave him somewhere between Pujols and The Babe, is just anonymously hiding away in Anaheim, never to be seen or celebrated by the fans of his sport.

Trout could anonymously walk the streets of probably 95% of cities in America, all while he's the the LeBron James of his sport, a sport that's known as "America's Pasttime." Children 40 years from now will ask their grandfathers what it was like to watch Mike Trout, and Paw Paw will say, "I dunno son, never saw him play. But let me tell you all about Gio Urshela and Xander Boagerts."

Edited February 19, 2021 by shadow_operative

[Beau Vine 54322]

4 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

speaking of Mike Trout, is there a more glaring example of how out of touch the MLB is and has been than Trout's barely visible existence? when you think about Babe Ruth, Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Wayne Gretzky, Jim Brown, Pele, Messi, and so on- these guys are all larger than life figures in their sports, especially when they are/were active players. even guys like Albert Pujols and Ichiro had a MUCH bigger imprint on the game and its fans during their ascendency/primes, and yet Mike Trout, who is on a path that will leave him somewhere between Pujols and The Babe, is just anonymously hiding away in Anaheim, never to be seen or celebrated by the fans of his sport.

Trout could anonymously walk the streets of probably 95% of cities in America, all while he's the the LeBron James of his sport, a sport that's known as "America's Pasttime." Children 40 years from now will ask their grandfathers what it was like to watch Mike Trout, and Paw Paw will say, "I dunno son, never saw him play. But let me tell you all about Gio Urshela and Xander Boagerts."

I kind of think this argument is starting to reach the peak "Bernie Williams is underrated" stage, when there were so many people saying that, that Bernie Williams actually became overrated.  Trout has several national endorsement contracts, a baseball card of his sold for $4M, and he's universally acknowledged as the best player in the sport.  There's really not much MLB can do outside of rigging the playoffs so that the Angels make it, which is the largest cause of any Trout "underexposure."  And unless Paw Paw is a complete dumbass, he's going to tell his grandson to go to youtube.com and watch one of the thousands of Trout highlight packages that are posted there.  

[shadow_operative 15932]

26 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I kind of think this argument is starting to reach the peak "Bernie Williams is underrated" stage, when there were so many people saying that, that Bernie Williams actually became overrated.  Trout has several national endorsement contracts, a baseball card of his sold for $4M, and he's universally acknowledged as the best player in the sport.  There's really not much MLB can do outside of rigging the playoffs so that the Angels make it, which is the largest cause of any Trout "underexposure."  And unless Paw Paw is a complete dumbass, he's going to tell his grandson to go to youtube.com and watch one of the thousands of Trout highlight packages that are posted there.  

nah, the largest cause of Trout's under exposure is the MLB brass being littered with luddites who were only recently dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century. Major League Baseball has always been the absolute worst of the major sports when it comes to self promotion. from their refusal to embrace fans sharing and creating MLB content until recently, to the fact that no matter how bad the Yankees and Red Sox are that ESPN will air 30 of their games for ever one Angels game that they broadcast, the MLB has always been a joke at promoting its sport and its stars. 

[Beau Vine 54322]

50 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

nah, the largest cause of Trout's under exposure is the MLB brass being littered with luddites who were only recently dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century.

Counterpoint: MLBAM

[TonyTexas 10519]

This article, while ostensibly about predatory lending, also shows how terrible MLB treats its young prospects that such a service is even necessary 

WSJ - Fernando Tatís Jr. was 18 years old, just a low-level prospect from the Dominican Republic trying to work his way up in the San Diego Padres farm system, when he made a financial deal that would impact his entire baseball career. And it wasn’t with the Padres. 

Tatís signed a contract with Big League Advance, an unusual investment fund that pays minor-league players money up front in exchange for a share of their future MLB earnings. 

Tatís, now 22 and widely viewed as one of the sport’s best young stars, today knows what those earnings will be. He agreed to a record-setting 14-year contract with the Padres on Wednesday night worth an eye-popping $340 million, the third-highest total in MLB history. 

His new contract also creates a significant obligation for Tatís: to pay a sizable chunk of his new bounty—perhaps close to $30 million—to Big League Advance.

Big League Advance began raising money in 2015 and made its first investment in a player in 2016. The company’s founder and CEO, Michael Schwimer, is a University of Virginia graduate who pitched in 47 games for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2011 and 2012. 

Investors in Big League Advance include Cleveland Browns executive Paul DePodesta and Marvin Bush, the son of the late President George H.W. Bush. Schwimer says the company has invested more than $150 million in nearly 350 players so far, none more prominent than Tatís. Many of them never played in the major leagues at all.

Big League Advance’s average pact with players is for around 8%. In the case of Tatís, that would add up to $27.2 million. Representatives for Tatís declined to comment.

“It’s 2021, and this is the first time we’ve seen it pay off in an actual way instead of a theoretical way,” said Schwimer, who turned 35 on Friday. “We’ve been living in a theoretical world for a while, and this is the first real move for us.”

 

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

More fuel for Helo’s hate. 

Quote

The New York Yankees and outfielder Brett Gardner have reached agreement on a one-year deal worth $4 million, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan, confirming multiple reports.

The contract includes a second-year player option that if rejected turns into a team option, sources said.

[WBT 20645]

5 minutes ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

The contract includes a second-year player option that if rejected turns into a team option, sources said.

That seems kind of weird, like someone is going to end up pissed off.  If he's somehow good enough to want to opt out and make more money, the team gets to keep him locked down.  And if he's hurt or shitty, the team is stuck with him.

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

If he’s good enough for the team option, he won’t be mad. He ain’t getting $7M from anyone else next year. 

 

[WBT 20645]

Yeah, I didn't see it was $7MM.  I was thinking $4MM again.  Why even include the player option clause at that price...I can tell you right now he is taking that.

[shnsajax 3591]

This is a funny thread.

[Helobious 9464]

On 2/19/2021 at 6:07 PM, shadow_operative2.0 said:

More fuel for Helo’s hate. 

As a 4th outfielder/pinch runner I don’t hate him. He’s still pesky as fuck to get out as a batter as well. But he will be an out.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Helobious

[Blotto 23560]

On 2/18/2021 at 4:03 PM, WBT said:

I agree with Wulaw.  Here are the top 20-year-old and 21-year-old seasons by wRC+.  Most of these guys you would be happy to lock up.  Also, add that he's a SS and can slide over to 3rd or 1st and probably be ok when he gets older.  It's a big risk but if you're the Padres and don't do something like this, he's gone as a FA after his team control is up.

 

Comparison of the Tatis deal with Acuna's recent deal: 

Here are the numbers for each player by age, with Acuna’s listed first.

21:  1 million / (Tatis deal not in effect)

22:  1 million / 1 million

23:  5 million / 5 million

24:  15 million / 7 million

25:  17 million / 11 million

26:  17 million / 20 million

27:  17 million / 20 million

28:  17 million / 25 million

29:  17 million* / 25 million

30:  17 million* / 36 million

31-35:  (no Acuna contract) / 36 million

* – contract team options, which we’ll assume are going to be exercised.  Acuna’s extension began in 2019; Tatis’ deal begins here in 2021. 

Obviously if Acuna is still crushing it at 31, you can assume the price to resign him will be ungodly by then. But all  things considered, I think I prefer the Braves deal from a team standpoint.

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

 

 

[shadow_operative2.0 16012]

On 2/19/2021 at 6:13 PM, WBT said:

That seems kind of weird, like someone is going to end up pissed off.  If he's somehow good enough to want to opt out and make more money, the team gets to keep him locked down.  And if he's hurt or shitty, the team is stuck with him.

All kinds of shit. 

Quote

Gardner will earn a $1.85MM salary and a $1MM signing bonus in 2021. There’s a $2.3MM player option for 2022, but if Gardner turns that down, the Yankees will be able to exercise a $7.15MM club option or buy him out for $1.15MM.

[UpperWestside 6174]

On 2/20/2021 at 7:36 PM, Helobious said:

As a 4th outfielder/pinch runner I don’t hate him. He’s still pesky as fuck to get out as a batter as well. But he will be an out.

He’s fun to watch in-person and is still a fan favorite here. For four million it’s a good signing and he wants to end his career with the Yankees so I am more than glad to see him back. 

[huge 3795]

No one likes him, he’s the worst

[Scraps 13570]

Just saw Bryce Harper interview on MLB Network.

Jesus ummmm Christ ummmm fucking ummmmm use ummmm part ummmmm of your ummmmm massive ummmmm ass ummmmm contract ummmmmm to get coached ummmmm in public ummmmm speaking

[Beau Vine 54322]

2 hours ago, Scraps said:

Just saw Bryce Harper interview on MLB Network.

Jesus ummmm Christ ummmm fucking ummmmm use ummmm part ummmmm of your ummmmm massive ummmmm ass ummmmm contract ummmmmm to get coached ummmmm in public ummmmm speaking

That's a clown comment, bro.

[Beau Vine 54322]

Spring training games start tomorrow, bitches!

[Beau Vine 54322]

14 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Spring training games start tomorrow, bitches!

And the MLB app is having "a problem communicating with MLB."  Great.

[Scraps 13570]

I see Lewis Brinson on that shit again....hit 10+ spring training homers then hit like 4 over 162 when

[shadow_operative 15932]

over the batter's eye:

 

 

[Beau Vine 54322]

9 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

over the batter's eye:

 

 

And later in the game, he put another ball over the batter's eye, while trying to throw out a runner stealing second.  

[Helobious 9464]

6 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

And later in the game, he put another ball over the batter's eye, while trying to throw out a runner stealing second.  

One of my favorite sports calls of all time... I was watching baseball tonight one summer way back when Jeff Francoeur was taking over the league. They showed a highlight of him fielding a hit and trying to throw out a runner at the plate. He literally almost threw it over the foul ball netting behind home plate. The announcer calling the play:

”Francoeur up with it, and he’s throwing it home... to his real home.”

[Beau Vine 54322]

[Shoxthemonkey 1982]

He won't be on the opening day roster and I'm sure the Royals will fuck up his development but here is a shot.

 

[WBT 20645]

That guy running up the hill almost had it.