Gold bug / silver bug / numismatic / metals thread

[washparkhorn 9939]

I am curious on the rise:

1. Crypto to Gold?
2. Relative increase in world tension (middle east, Burma, . . .)?
3. Other?

[RDCanecutter 26377]

Dunno, but I got a notice from a seller 57 minutes ago that they had gold 2.5 Peso coins again for the first time in months, I click on their site, all sold out.

Kinda like the universe winking at me to hold on. The guys in videos always say it's going up (so why wouldn't they just shut up and secretly buy for themselves?) but I think it is not nearly done going up.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

I am curious on the rise:

1. Crypto to Gold?
2. Relative increase in world tension (middle east, Burma, . . .)?
3. Other?

My wild guesses, and if you don't like them, I'll refund what you paid me for them:

1. Crypto can be hamstrung by mean old politicians in ways that gold or cocaine cannot. Maybe people are cashing out a bit and moving into something else. Maybe that something includes gold. Maybe there's little connection.

2. Wars, Plagues, and Shaky Currencies have been the story since Thag Strongspear's wife discovered how to grow plants from seeds. 

3. I think it's got to be Other. Now, what that Other is, yo no sé.

[bernorange 8359]

Gold/silver are overdue for a rise.  The schism between paper gold (futures markets) and physical gold is real (see shortages and premiums).  Against this background, Basel III is set to kick in making gold trading desks at bullion banks more expensive.  So expensive they might close and leave paper markets gasping for liquidity.  Shorts could end up in real pickle.

[washparkhorn 9939]

40 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Gold/silver are overdue for a rise.  The schism between paper gold (futures markets) and physical gold is real (see shortages and premiums).  Against this background, Basel III is set to kick in making gold trading desks at bullion banks more expensive.  So expensive they might close and leave paper markets gasping for liquidity. 

Shorts could end up in real pickle.

 

[workswithseed 2086]

3 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

 

Did you buy gold last time we talked?

[RDCanecutter 26377]

Now the gold 2 Peso is out of stock 12 minutes after the email saying it's in. This has got to be a marketing gimmick.

[washparkhorn 9939]

4 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Did you buy gold last time we talked?

Interest is in how shorts in gold/silver affect price discovery. Here is a nice little piece on the subject:

https://renaissancemen.org/2021/03/24/why-the-banks-are-shorting-gold-and-silver/

Personally, I hate market manipulation.

 

[RDCanecutter 26377]

7 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Interest is in how shorts in gold/silver affect price discovery. Here is a nice little piece on the subject:

https://renaissancemen.org/2021/03/24/why-the-banks-are-shorting-gold-and-silver/

Personally, I hate market manipulation.

 

Zey had me at "Mises’ Regression Theorem," vhen I started shouting joyously in a German an Austrian accent.

[Superhero 8826]

Any thoughts on when silver will go above $30/oz?  I became a PM bug in 2012-2014 when metal was peaking and (like an idiot) ended up buying too much at ~$30/oz price.

I'll probably keep a few hundred oz around for show and tell, but would be happy not to lug around so much every time we get an fire evacuation order.

[pantone159 719]

As for silver, my conclusion is to keep any pieces that I want to hold long-term, because I just like their shiny looks or whatever, and sell the rest as convenient, but I have given up on investing in it. I did take some profits on a 100 oz bar that I bought just over 20 years ago, at about $5.30/oz, which seems like a nice profit, but it probably came up short of an S&P 500 fund, and was a lot more complicated to sell, so I will not try that anymore.

Gold is for keeping indefinitely, unless there comes some emergency situation, like when I need to flee the country with only the clothes on my back (and the gold in my pockets), or having to barter with dragons. But I have not actually had much success accumulating gold, I always think it is too expensive. About 2 years ago, I was excited because the price of a US Saint Gaudens $20 in nice condition was little more than metal price, and I was patiently waiting for a drop in the spot price so I could snag a nice buy of a cool coin that I have always wanted one of. But then a bunch of strange stuff happened, and I still have not had my chance...

[RDCanecutter 26377]

2 hours ago, Superhero said:

Any thoughts on when silver will go above $30/oz?  I became a PM bug in 2012-2014 when metal was peaking and (like an idiot) ended up buying too much at ~$30/oz price.

A guy here is currently buying generic silver for a dollar over spot, and American Silver Eagles for $3 over (then he turns around and sells them for 8 to 13 over spot, and they appear to move.)

So depending on what you've got, find the right dealer, and maybe you can get more than 30/oz right now.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

Went in a fancy home decoration/jewelry store today to see if I could scare up a random ounce of silver-- this place used to have a half-dozen bars and rounds available for whatever reason. No luck, but I did fit the description of a guy who was on his way down there to pick up some pots.

I messed up and told them it wasn't me. If any of you have more self-discipline, you won't get any silver but you can take home some free pots.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

2 hours ago, pantone159 said:

About 2 years ago, I was excited because the price of a US Saint Gaudens $20 in nice condition was little more than metal price, and I was patiently waiting for a drop in the spot price so I could snag a nice buy of a cool coin that I have always wanted one of. But then a bunch of strange stuff happened, and I still have not had my chance...

Yep, gold was down, plus they were selling US gold for almost spot. Naturally, I was broke.

Edited May 20, 2021 by RDCanecutter

[RDCanecutter 26377]

Every now and then on metals discussion boards, the stacker fantasy comes up of using gold and silver as currencies. Here for your amusement is an example of that happening. I had a side gig painting gaming miniatures. A buddy was a gamer, not really flush with cash but he did have lots of silver that he'd bought I guess in the 90s.

We worked out a rate based on about 24 bucks a "dollar," either an actual silver dollar or a silver bullion ounce, for me to paint his toy soldiers.

(Dude tried to pay once with Canadian silver dollars. 0.6 oz. No hard feelings-- gamers gonna game.)

The first time or two, we thought in paper dollars. But then we just converted straight to silver dollars and stayed there. How much to paint such and such? "Three dollars."

[RDCanecutter 26377]

I'm high-rollin' now y'all.

I knew most of the area coin shops except for one way out on the west side. Back in the 80s they were kind of a big deal, striking their own silver rounds, but the one time I glanced inside while they were closed, it looked like they had converted to an embroidery place with only a vestigial coin business. In fact, I just assumed they had closed for good.

Then this week I got a wild hair, looked them up, they're in business, the reviews are for them as a pawn shop, OK, but they're still open.

Fired up the Canecuttermobile, gave it an Italian tune-up down the boulevard. Once inside the place, I could see that at least half of it was still stocked with metal. Dude was doing steady business, people walking in asking for platinum, bringing in jewelry to repair, meanwhile the embroidery and banner-making machines were humming.

I asked prices to buy and sell, they were worth a drive. Didn't have a ton of cash on me, but to commemorate the visit I decided to get 2 Mercury dimes for just under $5. I handed him the money, and instead of giving me change, he said "For today let's make it 3 dimes for $5."

So $6 worth of silver for 5 bucks. That doesn't happen very often.

 

[RDCanecutter 26377]

Anybody poking around thinking of getting something?

I am honestly not feeling it at the moment, but I am trying to maintain Dollar Cost Averaging, and so I need to apply the disciprine.

Last month I blew through the budget getting the 20 Francs, even though [flips coin, ok gold went up since then] AH! A Profit! BOW DOWN TO MY GENIUS!

Anyway, Canecutter's Mysterious Algorithm tells me to get more gold this month, I could see dropping a hundred bucks for a 2 peso maybe. That means calling local dealers and visiting an ATM for cash. So much effort.

[workswithseed 2086]

On 6/2/2021 at 9:02 AM, RDCanecutter said:

Anybody poking around thinking of getting something?

I am honestly not feeling it at the moment, but I am trying to maintain Dollar Cost Averaging, and so I need to apply the disciprine.

Last month I blew through the budget getting the 20 Francs, even though [flips coin, ok gold went up since then] AH! A Profit! BOW DOWN TO MY GENIUS!

Anyway, Canecutter's Mysterious Algorithm tells me to get more gold this month, I could see dropping a hundred bucks for a 2 peso maybe. That means calling local dealers and visiting an ATM for cash. So much effort.

Don't forget to put gas in the equation. That's basically a third of a tank. 

[RDCanecutter 26377]

25 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Don't forget to put gas in the equation. That's basically a third of a tank. 

More like a gallon here. The Birmingham metro is like Rhode Island dropped inside Alabama, minus the suddenly confused boat rental guys.

[workswithseed 2086]

3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

More like a gallon here. The Birmingham metro is like Rhode Island dropped inside Alabama, minus the suddenly confused boat rental guys.

Depends on vehicle. I always figured you have an old blue Chevy pick up that you refer to as "Mi Chevy." That you got back in Mexico.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

On 6/7/2021 at 2:26 PM, workswithseed said:

Depends on vehicle. I always figured you have an old blue Chevy pick up that you refer to as "Mi Chevy." That you got back in Mexico.

^^^It's amazing how few words you'd have to change to get that up to 100% accuracy.

I always thought of it as getting paid about $600/month not to drive a new car.

[pantone159 719]

On 6/2/2021 at 11:02 AM, RDCanecutter said:

Anybody poking around thinking of getting something?

I am still wanting to add some small gold type coins, but I think premiums (to spot) are still really high right now, so I am practicing patience. Hopefully soon I can try and track down some of my wants, like a 2 peso, 2.5 peso, Canadian sovereign, and maybe a USA $1 and $2.5. Those small ones will have more premium that the big coins, so eventually I should probably just suck it up and pay up.

In the meantime, I am considering getting around 20 g of rhenium metal pellets, just in case that metal price goes nuts sometimes, and if it doesn't, I'll at least have a cool stash of a rare exotic metal.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

1 hour ago, pantone159 said:

In the meantime, I am considering getting around 20 g of rhenium metal pellets, just in case that metal price goes nuts sometimes, and if it doesn't, I'll at least have a cool stash of a rare exotic metal.

It's OK to say it's for the spaceship. We all know it's for the spaceship.

On the premise that any small gold that I am seeking will only be available if I personally go into the coin shop within 15 minutes of somebody selling it, I set forth on a fishing expedition.

Did not acquire gold (dude had plenty of full ounces, and a 100 oz silver bar, but I forgot to bring the wallet with thousands of dollars in it,) but I did snag a clean ASE inside a case for $31, so maybe 4 over spot.

The dude who brought it in was barely out the door before I grabbed it.

Edited June 9, 2021 by RDCanecutter

[RDCanecutter 26377]

From the Never Make Assumptions file: I stopped in the most expensive coin store I know to scout it out, and underneath the trays of $40/oz bullion coins, there was another full of US Mint Commemorative Dollars. These, as I found out today, are perfectly good coins put out by the US Mint at the same weight and composition as the old Morgan or Peace Dollars, 90% silver, 24 grams actual silver weight.

The mint typically sell them in little boxes for about 50-70 bucks apiece. The coins are worth, today, about $21.50 in silver on their own.

Dude man was selling them for $23 each.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

O My Goblin Brethren and Sistren, the search for the unattainable gold 2 Peso goes on without shiny metal to show for it. The closest I got was a chance to buy some 1/10 American Gold Eagles for 245 each, and since I neither want them nor do I wish to spend that much, I am left with the First World Problem of having unspent cash.

I did hear some interesting things from that LCS owner.

He'd been on vacation in Idaho, and as goblins do, he'd dropped by multiple coin shops there, some 40+ years in business, and they had nothing in stock. No one is selling.

Then he went to the Atlanta Coin Show, and watched a frenzy of buying. $140,000 in cash spent on gold at one table. People walking in, $70,000 cash to spend, buying whatever was to be had. Turns out a couple of those guys were bookies, but LCS owner said he saw regular Joes who don't look like they'd have money just laying down cash for multiple ounces of gold.

I just stood there, wanting my little 2 Peso worth maybe 100 bucks.

Dude said he met a dealer from Indiana who had driven to Atlanta hoping to restock, because he couldn't find anything in the Midwest.

Just nobody is selling gold.

[Armybrat 40814]

Found a jar of scrap silver quarters in the bottom of my sock drawer..

 

[pantone159 719]

I think wanna-be-gold-bugs just need some patience right now, and wait out the craziness. It won't last forever. At least, I hope not.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Found a jar of scrap silver quarters in the bottom of my sock drawer..

 

Make sure your kids and grandkids know what those are. Cashiers at places that cater to late-night-beer-and-cigarette runs tell me they see lots of real silver, maybe somebody dipping into granddad's coin jar to soothe that nicotine fit.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

25 minutes ago, pantone159 said:

I think wanna-be-gold-bugs just need some patience right now, and wait out the craziness. It won't last forever. At least, I hope not.

Keep a small reserve of cash for unforeseen debts and crises? Crazy talk, Sir. Crazy talk.

[Armybrat 40814]

14 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Make sure your kids and grandkids know what those are. Cashiers at places that cater to late-night-beer-and-cigarette runs tell me they see lots of real silver, maybe somebody dipping into granddad's coin jar to soothe that nicotine fit.

Oh, they know for sure. 
My high school grandson asked for, and received a little kiln furnace to melt metals as a hobby a couple of years ago. I bought him a mold and gave him some scrap sterling silver to make his grandma a nice cross for her birthday last year. Took him 3 tries, but he succeeded with this nifty result...
(it is kinda heavy, but she loves it)

 

 

Edited June 14, 2021 by Armybrat

[Armybrat 40814]

It weighs 24 grams.

[pantone159 719]

Melting them into something cool is definitely a good use for those.

Otherwise, my personal opinion would be to cash them in for silver value, which will make sure they don't get 'accidentally' spent for 25 cents.

 

[Armybrat 40814]

1 hour ago, pantone159 said:

Melting them into something cool is definitely a good use for those.

Otherwise, my personal opinion would be to cash them in for silver value, which will make sure they don't get 'accidentally' spent for 25 cents.

 

No coins went into that cross, just scrap sterling silverware.

[workswithseed 2086]

34 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

No coins went into that cross, just scrap sterling silverware.

We understand. Don't want the feds to know.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

32 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

No coins went into that cross, just scrap sterling silverware.

Yeah, US silver coins = 90% silver, Sterling = 92.5% silver. Somebody would have to be way cooler than I am to figure the difference.

Some of my favorite coins are 1919-and-before British, especially the two-Shilling Florins, back then they made them out of sterling. Then in 1920 til 1946 they switched to this yoogly 50% silver mix that turns brown if you look at it. I think the Australians maybe kept sterling purity in their coins until the end of WWII.

[Wally Fairway 5539]

16 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Oh, they know for sure. 
My high school grandson asked for, and received a little kiln furnace to melt metals as a hobby a couple of years ago. I bought him a mold and gave him some scrap sterling silver to make his grandma a nice cross for her birthday last year. Took him 3 tries, but he succeeded with this nifty result...
(it is kinda heavy, but she loves it)

 

 

Hey - the Sugar Daddy thread is that way ----->

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4974]

So what is the best way to buy a few ounces of coin silver? I have a knife project in the pipeline that is supposed to be like a Daniel Searles bowie from the 1830's and needs some silver furnishings. It is my understanding that most of the silver work done in America prior to the mid nineteenth century was coin silver and not sterling as there was no domestic production and they had to resort to melting down coins. So I need some coin silver from some old ugly coins that are only worth their weight in silver.

[pantone159 719]

7 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

So what is the best way to buy a few ounces of coin silver? I have a knife project in the pipeline that is supposed to be like a Daniel Searles bowie from the 1830's and needs some silver furnishings. It is my understanding that most of the silver work done in America prior to the mid nineteenth century was coin silver and not sterling as there was no domestic production and they had to resort to melting down coins. So I need some coin silver from some old ugly coins that are only worth their weight in silver.

Coin shops should sell 'junk silver' which is 90% silver old US coins (from 1964 and before). Normally these should sell around melt value for the silver.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

I am ready to punt on this month's search for small gold that I want (as opposed to weird overpriced scraps that I don't want.)

I work at home, so the occasional car excursion to visit goblin lairs does me and the car good, but really, if I quit looking for what's not there, and just work a few hours extra instead, I'd have the extra cash to buy something I like that might be over the current budget.

The searching satisfies some dormant Hunter-Gatherer need, but if the mammoths are scarce, maybe it's time to plant crops, as in, get my lazy self back to work.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

On 6/15/2021 at 12:13 PM, pantone159 said:

Coin shops should sell 'junk silver' which is 90% silver old US coins (from 1964 and before). Normally these should sell around melt value for the silver.

Around here they have decided junk silver is worth more than generic rounds, go figure. Best price I found is more than $33/oz, at 24 x face value. @NotActuallyALonghorn, $1.40 worth of old silver coins is roughly an ounce.

BUT I bet if you were to walk into a shop and tell them you want to use some to make a knife, that's a cool thing that I bet they'd like. Who knows, you might catch a break, maybe they'd have some mutilated coins that they can't sell that they never got around to doing anything with.

[XYZ 2154]

On 6/15/2021 at 11:04 AM, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

So what is the best way to buy a few ounces of coin silver? I have a knife project in the pipeline that is supposed to be like a Daniel Searles bowie from the 1830's and needs some silver furnishings. It is my understanding that most of the silver work done in America prior to the mid nineteenth century was coin silver and not sterling as there was no domestic production and they had to resort to melting down coins. So I need some coin silver from some old ugly coins that are only worth their weight in silver.

If you are in Austin, McBride’s (the gun shop).

[RDCanecutter 26377]

For the first time in a while, I've seen the premium of online silver go below $4/ounce. Never seems to have been a great shortage, just silly premiums. Maybe we'll go below $3/oz before too long.

Physical gold shortage continues to be a thing. No sellers? I could see not selling when you're getting offered just a smidge above melt, and dude turns around and resells it instantly for double the usual premium, or more.

Personally, I like to stick to a small budget each month where I buy small gold coins, but that hasn't been feasible the past few months (the 20 francs was a splurge for me.) There is a big coin show down the road in a few weeks, maybe I'll stick some cash in my pocket and see if the One Ring of small gold coins lies there in wait.

Alternatives are to switch to silver, in defiance of the All-Knowing Mysterious Algorithm, or test my Inner Discipline and sock away enough cash over a few months to get one of these 1 ounce gold coins I hear tell of. I mean, other than I don't really like 1 ounce bullion coins. Most likely some emergency would come up first, but I'd at least have the savings to help with it.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

Good stuff. I’ll share.

Maybe not as cool, but I have an 1878 silver trade dollar and 1844 silver half dollar.  Both in decent condition.

And a little glimpse of my stack.  I LOVE the American Buffalo.  My stack is all 1 oz coins.  When I’m in Austin, I offload my silver at Kris Coins on west slaughter.  
 

Keep Stacking!

 

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

20 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

For the first time in a while, I've seen the premium of online silver go below $4/ounce. Never seems to have been a great shortage, just silly premiums. Maybe we'll go below $3/oz before too long.

Physical gold shortage continues to be a thing. No sellers? I could see not selling when you're getting offered just a smidge above melt, and dude turns around and resells it instantly for double the usual premium, or more.

Personally, I like to stick to a small budget each month where I buy small gold coins, but that hasn't been feasible the past few months (the 20 francs was a splurge for me.) There is a big coin show down the road in a few weeks, maybe I'll stick some cash in my pocket and see if the One Ring of small gold coins lies there in wait.

Alternatives are to switch to silver, in defiance of the All-Knowing Mysterious Algorithm, or test my Inner Discipline and sock away enough cash over a few months to get one of these 1 ounce gold coins I hear tell of. I mean, other than I don't really like 1 ounce bullion coins. Most likely some emergency would come up first, but I'd at least have the savings to help with it.

What's your opinion on the "90% junk silver" bags? I'm tempted to buy a 71.5 oz bag.  The online description says it contains pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and half dollars.  Is that a risky purchase?  I find it hard to believe buyers inspect all those coins for authenticity : )

 

  

[bernorange 8359]

90% junk silver bags are pretty liquid (any dealer will buy them).  If you sell back to the place you buy from, it should be very safe.  Selling 90% to a different dealer might entail some risk that they will inspect with intense scrutiny to find any reason to lower their purchase price (severely worn coins).

Edited June 28, 2021 by bernorange

[pantone159 719]

The circulated 90% stuff is not my thing, but I think that this is very liquid and normally (possibly not right now) has low premiums. The price is usually given as some multiplier of face value because that is convenient and usually correct, but remember that you are buying silver not cash. So if a coin is so worn to be underweight, it is actually worth less. I suspect that most bags are weighed pretty carefully, even if each coin is not inspected, so it is probably not so easy to slip a fake in there. My personal opinion on silver, is keep/hoard it if you like the look of it, but otherwise sell it and put the money elsewhere.

Edited June 29, 2021 by pantone159

[RDCanecutter 26377]

19 hours ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

What's your opinion on the "90% junk silver" bags? I'm tempted to buy a 71.5 oz bag.  The online description says it contains pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and half dollars.  Is that a risky purchase?  I find it hard to believe buyers inspect all those coins for authenticity : )

 

  

90% silver used to be the best value, then in the pandemic the mark-ups got a little crazy. But I got curious after your question and checking around, it looks like mixed bags of different coins are competitive again.

I looked at Provident Metals and compared Silver Rounds (varied condition), $10 bags of 90%, and 10 oz silver bars (any mint), 71.5 oz of each, with a little fudging to make full weight with the rounds and bars.

In that context, the 71.5oz of 90% came in about ten bucks cheaper to buy, and a few bucks better for what you'd get back when selling.

I would trust a sealed bag of 90% from an established dealer, but honestly I'd rather see the silver. The main thing I don't like about a 71.5 oz bag is that it's a 71.5 oz bag. I don't know if that's easy or hard to sell. I'd consider getting 10 of the $10 bags instead if the price is still good.

Edited June 29, 2021 by RDCanecutter
me no write number good

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

Thanks for the helpful information.  I'll look for smaller junk silver bags to purchase.  

[RDCanecutter 26377]

1 hour ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

Thanks for the helpful information.  I'll look for smaller junk silver bags to purchase.  

Sent you a link to some guys who've treated me right in the past.

[RDCanecutter 26377]

New month, new Goblin Metal budget.

I see some stuff on my usual website that I'd be pretty happy having. Then again, biggest coin show in my state is coming up in two weeks.

So sit at the computer clicking a button like a degenerate now, or drive 20 minutes to root around who knows what hidden treasures like a degenerate in two weeks?

I think I gotta go LARP amidst the real pile of shiny.