Gold bug / silver bug / numismatic / metals thread

[Pimphand 5733]

Crack-up Boom (Katastrophenhausse) soon come! The Fed is trapped they will raise interest rates until something breaks and when it does QE5 will be here and that's when we head to the world officially rejecting the USD as the reserve currency which will only exacerbate the fiat currency's demise. Going to see bank panics and zombie debt contagion spreads like wildfire when the derivative bubble starts to collapse and calls to service the unservicable debt start.  It's like the worlds biggest game of musical chairs only there are so few chairs it's not even funny.

Owning shares of GLD and SLV are completely and utterly worthless you need physical Au and Ag metals in your hands or you are proper fuct.  Buy them now while you still have the opportunity.  Silver is still very much rigged by the market manipulators and you are being incentivized to buy as much of it as you can so get with the program while you still can.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4975]

Lead beats gold.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

On 6/13/2022 at 5:33 PM, Pimphand said:

Crack-up Boom (Katastrophenhausse) soon come! The Fed is trapped they will raise interest rates until something breaks and when it does QE5 will be here and that's when we head to the world officially rejecting the USD as the reserve currency which will only exacerbate the fiat currency's demise. Going to see bank panics and zombie debt contagion spreads like wildfire when the derivative bubble starts to collapse and calls to service the unservicable debt start.  It's like the worlds biggest game of musical chairs only there are so few chairs it's not even funny.

Owning shares of GLD and SLV are completely and utterly worthless you need physical Au and Ag metals in your hands or you are proper fuct.  Buy them now while you still have the opportunity.  Silver is still very much rigged by the market manipulators and you are being incentivized to buy as much of it as you can so get with the program while you still can.

Reads like a post from a decade ago, or was it two decades?

I believed we were heading to global financial ruin, lead by Greece defaulting and dragging the EU down. And, someone help me here, there was someone here who used to post about it and linked  articles related.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but I refuse to build and stock a survival shelter

[Muny_Tex 293]

Reads like a post from a decade ago, or was it two decades?

I was gonna say it reads like a bot fueled by a algorithm combo of Peter Schiff + Robert Kiyosaki twitter posts…and not at all in a good way.

And I think SushiHorn is the alarmist you are remembering. His posts got me turned onto the market-ticker website (smart guy, but total autistic nutcase) when I was really young/dumb and had me partially brainwashed for a while.

That said, gold continues to demonstrate its (primary) strength as a store of value in midst of this recent debacle. I think it’s up about 2% YTD, which is a helluva performance relative to most equities, risk assets, and the alleged “digital gold” of crypto.

I own a decent amount of $GLD and I got very defensive in my retirement accounts in January, mainly because I hate losing money way more than I enjoy making it. So I’m basically flat across the board for 2022. Yay for me.

As far as bullion being some magic elixir to a global economic meltdown, that’s just beyond stupid. Mob rule, mass starvation, etc is not gonna give a fuck about your “legal right” to coins/bars you may have purchased fair and square before the currency collapse.

Also, as mentioned previous on this thread, coins will become widely counterfeited beyond the means that most any normal person could ascertain.

My doomsday prepping begins and ends with my home defense firearms, ~6 week supply of nonperishable foods, first aid kits, a few cases of bottled water, and two “pretty nice” furnished rental properties (and two spare cars) with which to barter.

I’m not naive enough to think for two seconds that any of us living on the grid have a legitimate chance of surviving a full scale catastrophe that extends/exceeds beyond those baseline shocks…or honestly if I’d even want to.

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-mln-tonnes-of-gold-ore

Quote

AMPALA, June 8 (Reuters) - Uganda on Wednesday said recent exploration surveys have shown it has gold ore deposits of about 31 million tonnes and it wants to attract big investors to develop the sector hitherto dominated by small wildcat miners.

Over the last two years aerial exploration was done across the country followed by geophysical and geochemical surveys and analyses, Solomon Muyita, spokesperson for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, told Reuters.

Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore.

did not see anything in the thread about this.  I don't have any stake or follow precious metals much at all, but ran across this.  

[RDCanecutter 26397]

On 6/29/2022 at 3:39 PM, gyroprotagonist said:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-mln-tonnes-of-gold-ore

did not see anything in the thread about this.  I don't have any stake or follow precious metals much at all, but ran across this.  

If true, that would be more than has ever been found before.  Unless I messed the maff up.

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-gold-has-been-found-world#:~:text=About 244%2C000 metric tons of,in gold production in 2016.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

Shocking

[bernorange 8359]

Not really.  I posted a lot about it on the Shag circa 2009 or so.

[gsoda3 3248]

@RDCanecutter where would you go to buy in austin? or would you buy online? i've bought from capitol coin & bullion in the past, decent people.  just wondering if you had any opinions.  i'm looking to add some silver.

[RDCanecutter 26397]

7 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

@RDCanecutter where would you go to buy in austin? or would you buy online? i've bought from capitol coin & bullion in the past, decent people.  just wondering if you had any opinions.  i'm looking to add some silver.

Hey, sorry I don't know much about Austin dealers, but a couple of the guys here can no doubt help you out. If I were to move back to Austin I'd just recon them all. When I did live there I was more interested in Shiner than Silver.

I always get better deals in person at local stores. I guess they figure everybody looks at the websites first. Probably the last ten things I bought online were from Provident Metals because they have me on file as a veteran, and I get the same price if I buy 1 thing as if I bought 100. (If anybody is prior service and interested in the same, just contact them about it. Involves scanning IDs and DD214s with SSN marked out.) 

But still, a few of the local guys always give better deals than Provident or other online places. All the online sellers like to bombard you with "special" crap that's marked up way above the value of the metal, and you have to dig to find deals.

Any particular type of silver you looking for?

[gsoda3 3248]

thanks for the suggestion.  in the past i've looked at the best rates online and then gone into the brick and mortar stores to hunt the coins that have the least premium as i'm not sure if the premiums on those other coins will erode in the future.  so, nothing really specific although i do like the idea of collecting different types of coins-  i feel like i don't know enough to find good value on them. they need a tv show like pawn stars for numismatics.

[RDCanecutter 26397]

2 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

 they need a tv show like pawn stars for numismatics.

I went through this stage where I bought lots of old coin books off eBay. All kinds of niche pamphlets, with info in them that often hasn't hit the internet.

Unfortunately, most TV shows are worse than those junk jewelry telethons. I yearn for the simple Dr. Evil elegance of old Krugerrand commercials.

 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

I skipped going to the biggest coin show of the year right down the road from me. Felt no desire one way or the other. Have I lost my Goblin Card?

[Chewy's Hairy Horn 868]

Nah, you’ve probably just a bit more engaged with other interests.  I have about four or five that intend to randomly rotate in and out of. Just go where the energy is.  

[RDCanecutter 26397]

On 7/23/2022 at 3:26 PM, Chewy's Hairy Horn said:

Just go where the energy is.  

Well, today I stopped into a shop to hobnob because I hadn't seen the guy since the Russians invaded. Had only pocket change but still got a Mercury Dime at $1.70. Dude was gonna just give it to me but I dared defend my rights, and gave him a nickel extra.

We ain't no charity case yet. That's next week.

[RDCanecutter 26397]

I was in a coin shop the other day when I got to see the end-game of a collection-- somebody had obviously died, and one of his heirs came in to sell the metal. 

Dude had a briefcase and a shopping bag full of more than 500 ounces. Mostly silver bars and things like 90% silver coins. Very little "weird stuff" though I can't be sure as I was minding my business across the room.

Whole transaction took less than ten minutes, mostly counting, with the shop assistant going to look up prices on a couple of odd bits. Then it was $11,000 in cash, dude phoned his siblings to see how the rest of the will's execution was going, and done.

Since this is my plan (give all the metal to loved ones when I die) I realized I ought to organize it better, and maybe put some documentation with it so an overwhelmed person isn't stuck googling the wrong thing. My wife is savvy about value and where to sell it, my son could maybe use a refresher course but knows better than to dump it on a pawn shop counter.

[Pimphand 5733]

[pantone159 719]

On 8/20/2022 at 11:12 AM, RDCanecutter said:

Whole transaction took less than ten minutes, mostly counting, with the shop assistant going to look up prices on a couple of odd bits. Then it was $11,000 in cash, dude phoned his siblings to see how the rest of the will's execution was going, and done.

That is one advantage to collecting what is mostly bullion, compared to 'collector' things. It is a lot easier to value, mainly because the value is all in the physical material.

 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

I lust for gold again.

Yet for some reason I have decided to pay off a credit card instead.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

I lust for gold again.

Yet for some reason I have decided to pay off a credit card instead.

Same.

 

Purchased a tube of Buffalos @ $1629.40 oz. 

Had some cash burning a hole in my pocket.

 

 

[bernorange 8359]

Quote

...
"One thing about gold is that it's down this year, more or less 8%. It's down a lot less than stocks or bonds. So it has proven to be a source of protecting wealth," Paulson told Bloomberg in a recent interview. "The issue is gold's a hedge against inflation, but while the current inflation rate is high, long-term inflation expectations are still very low. It's like 2.5%. And they haven't really changed while the Fed has been raising interest rates."
...
"As the 10-year yield has gone from 2% to, let's say, 3.6%, inflation expectations still are around 2.5%. So before real rates were negative, now they become positive. So because real rates have become positive, that's really put a cap on gold," Paulson added.

For gold to have a convincing turnaround, the economy needs to start to slow after a slate of aggressive rate hikes. This would force the Fed to pause.

"And then [the Fed] see [it] can't control inflation. Then it's not going to come down to 2%, at best. Maybe they get it down to 4%, 5% or 6%, and then the economy weakens, they have to ease again. And then inflation comes back," Paulson described.

The realization that the Fed is not in control will boost the long-term inflation expectations and move gold higher.

"At that point, long-term inflation expectations will rise. People will not believe the Fed can control it. And then I think gold rises to higher levels," Paulson said.
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-09-27/Billionaire-investor-John-Paulson-gold-price-to-rise-when-Fed-fails-to-get-inflation-back-to-2-economy-slows.html

It's on sale until it isn't.

[bernorange 8359]

I'm seeing a lot of smoke about a high risk of the paper markets for the metals running out of underlying physical to back it - especially with silver. I'm talking about Comex and LBMA vaults.  SLV in particular is rumored to be bleeding physical.

Euro refineries have shut down silver refining (energy costs too high thanks to Russia/Ukraine war).  Zero production right now.

Sanctions have stopped importation of Russian gold and silver (one of Europe's largest suppliers).

Premiums for physical are seriously disconnected from spot.  Silver premiums are over 50% of spot.

The US Mint is capping their production of Eagles.  Apmex is sending emails out offering to buy back ASEs at $10 over spot.

It's starting to feel an awful lot like 2007/2008.

[pantone159 719]

As long as I have paid any attention to the metals market, there have been people saying that the paper and physical markets are coming apart and that Comex is about to collapse. Hasn't happened yet.

As far as premiums for physical: The meaningful premium for the physical commodity metal is that on 1000 oz bars, which are the financial standard. These are modest now, nowhere NEAR 50%. The premiums on ASE's are related to retail fabricated products, in particular ones that are made by the US government. People who claim that premiums on ASE's represent premiums on silver as a commodity are people who COMPLETELY do not understand the difference between wholesale commodities and retail fabricated products. The common clay of the New West, you might say.

As far as ASE's in particular: I think that the Mint, which buys its blank planchets from vendors, has changed their contract, in a way that made it a little cheaper for the Mint, but reduced the extent that the vendors have to sell as much as the Mint wants. At the moment, it is more profitable for these vendors to sell the planchets to others, so the Mint has less supply of planchets, so they are not minting as many ASE's as they would like to, and that there is demand for. Perhaps this was a poor choice for the Mint, but it does not in any way represent a breakdown of the commodity market.

 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

^Interesting big-picture stuff. 

On the inspecting-the-edges-of-pocket-change level where I dwell, I recently received a minuscule paper jury duty check, and went to my bank's drive-through to cash it. I had a sudden inspiration to do the Crazy Uncle Coin Roll Searching trick, where you ask for rolls of half-dollars in the hopes that there is some free silver in the form of 1970 or earlier 50 cent pieces.

"Do you have any half dollars?"

"No."

Oh well. Coulda bought an ounce of silver with the paper cash, but we just used it to get some carnitas.

[bernorange 8359]

On 10/22/2022 at 10:04 AM, pantone159 said:

...

As far as premiums for physical: The meaningful premium for the physical commodity metal is that on 1000 oz bars, which are the financial standard. These are modest now, nowhere NEAR 50%. ...

As of this moment, Apmex is offering 1 kilo bars "As low as $4.09 per oz over spot" (10+ bars paid with check) for bars from Pioneer Metals. Their secondary market listing says "Available November 08, 2022".

Their lowest premium (buying in bulk) is a little over 20% of spot currently.  Premiums go up from there if you aren't looking to spend $7.5K+

Checking some other online dealers, I see premiums over spot for 1 kilo bars "(as low as $4.34 over spot)" [moneymetals.com] and similar at jmbullion, providentmetals, etc.

[RDCanecutter 26397]

Well, had some extra cash in my pocket and made it about two weeks until I was drawn to the flame like a moth.

Mi preciooooosssssoooo...

 

[Gatorubet 30185]

I was talking to my buddy and he said he was buying up as many 1 ounce gold coins as he could. He’s worried about Civil War and end times, etc.

I told him he needed rolls of silver dimes. Otherwise every transaction is going to be for one gold coin.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Gatorubet

[RDCanecutter 26397]

17 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I was talking to my buddy and he said he was buying up as many 1 ounce gold coins as he could. He’s worried about Civil War and end times, etc.

I told him he needed rolls of silver dimes. Otherwise every transaction is going to be for one gold coin.

He's been sucked into the End Times zone. Has he already dug a well, set up a windmill, organized a neighborhood militia, and planted sweet taters all around the yard in old trash cans full of dead leaves? If not, the gold ounces can wait until he gets all that taken care of.

The gold will be useful if he wants to slip away in the night carrying his wealth. Though I would recommend something like British Sovereigns (.2354 oz) that are recognized world-wide if you simply have a time machine send you back to 1913 when most people know what they are.

Depending on how good a buddy he is, you could either talk him down, or spin him up even more for your own profit.

[CleverNickname 1308]

I'm going to try one of those "put in $X a month" silver bouillon plans. I think free shipping every 3 months. If it proves a scam, no big deal. Not much lost. I've got some junk and some eagles, but not much else. The premiums on eagles is bananas. 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

On 11/13/2022 at 11:25 AM, CleverNickname said:

I'm going to try one of those "put in $X a month" silver bouillon plans. I think free shipping every 3 months. If it proves a scam, no big deal. Not much lost. I've got some junk and some eagles, but not much else. The premiums on eagles is bananas. 

I'm interested in how that works. DM me the info if you feel like it.

[B00M 6414]

On 11/13/2022 at 11:25 AM, CleverNickname said:

I'm going to try one of those "put in $X a month" silver bouillon plans. I think free shipping every 3 months. If it proves a scam, no big deal. Not much lost. I've got some junk and some eagles, but not much else. The premiums on eagles is bananas. 

Which vendor are you DCAing silver with?

what silver do you consider junk?

[pantone159 719]

17 minutes ago, B00M said:

what silver do you consider junk?

Don't know about CleverNickname, but the term "junk silver" is often used for the 90% silver coin that used to be used in the US, that is not in nice enough condition to be collectible. So, quarters/dimes/halves from 1964 or earlier.

[CleverNickname 1308]

Bingo. Fwiw my "money metals exchange monthly savings plan" should ship mid January with 9 or 10 generic buffalos (1 oz). I'll report back if all goes well. Fwiw I got about $420 face junk ($140 dimes and $280 quarters, ~300oz) buried in pvc at the ranch like a normal crazy person. I think I buried it when I built our cabin (before kids when my play money was plentiful) and in the past 15 years it's worth.... pretty close to the same amount. I think I got it at $16oz and at $24,  spot discounted for inflation, it is pretty much the same. Lol. That may sound crazy but it's a tiny percent my savings, and even less if you include pension PV. Some of yall probably have 10x or 100x more.

But yeah... the spam cans of 7.62x39 has appreciated much more. And of course my vanguard index 2040 is kicking both assets asses (thank god).

[CleverNickname 1308]

Also, I think I want to become the weird uncle who gives silver coins for christmas to nieces and nephews each year. 

[Pimphand 5733]

You face a future where you either invest in precious metals or you will get fucked into oblivion. If you do not heed these warnings I will laugh scoff and jeer at your idiotic demise.

[Pimphand 5733]

On 6/16/2022 at 9:58 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Reads like a post from a decade ago, or was it two decades?

I believed we were heading to global financial ruin, lead by Greece defaulting and dragging the EU down. And, someone help me here, there was someone here who used to post about it and linked  articles related.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but I refuse to build and stock a survival shelter

I am saying invest in precious metals. Remember in 1964 a 90% silver quarter could get a gallon of gasoline. In 2022 a 1964 90% silver quarter can still get you a gallon of gasoline.

Preserve your wealth in the most stable asset in human history.

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

22 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Also, I think I want to become the weird uncle who gives silver coins for christmas to nieces and nephews each year. 

replace silver with gold in this sentence--that's me.

 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

22 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Also, I think I want to become the weird uncle who gives silver coins for christmas to nieces and nephews each year. 

I was doing that, but then my neighbors all got together and confronted me, said we weren't really related and to quit hanging around with their kids.

[Armybrat 40822]

13 hours ago, Pimphand said:

You face a future where you either invest in precious metals or you will get fucked into oblivion. If you do not heed these warnings I will laugh scoff and jeer at your idiotic demise.

 

[B00M 6414]

Where do you get your lead? I like ordering from Natchez

 

[Knoxtnhorn 5971]

Thanks for all the info.  I purchased my first gold and silver (coins and bullion) a few months ago just to get started.  It's just a few hundred bucks worth.  I'm looking to up my game, so to speak.  

Interesting comment above about people having no idea what is real and what isn't if the shit ever hit the fan.  I sure as hell wouldn't know the difference between real and fake in a Cormac McCarthy setting.  Anyway, just broached the topic with my wife.  Apparently all is good.  She's been buying Lego's as an investment. 🥴

[RDCanecutter 26397]

15 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Anyway, just broached the topic with my wife.  Apparently all is good.  She's been buying Lego's as an investment. 🥴

 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

^^ don't buy those.

[CleverNickname 1308]

Fwiw the first batch of coins shipped for the monthly plan thing mentioned above (money metals). Had to sign. Seems to have worked out.

[CleverNickname 1308]

My first generic rounds. Otherwise have eagles and junk. These are... fine? I think I'd  prefer a mint mark. I like eagle more, but the current mark up is too painful. Maybe when I have some deep stacks I'll trade for weirder stuff. 

[RDCanecutter 26397]

On 1/17/2023 at 7:55 PM, CleverNickname said:

My first generic rounds. Otherwise have eagles and junk. These are... fine? I think I'd  prefer a mint mark. I like eagle more, but the current mark up is too painful. Maybe when I have some deep stacks I'll trade for weirder stuff. 

They'll probably sell for almost as much as a Silver Eagle if you ever need to.

As for weird stuff, back when eBay didn't suck for selling metal, I used to do well buying art bars locally and reselling them there for 20 over melt. I'd look for anything with titties, guns, or religious associations eg Israel, Texas... but now eBay tacks on tax even when a state might not charge it for bullion.

Since I stopped selling tons of stuff on eBay, if I were to sell my silver locally, I'd be better off having lots of the same thing, not too weird. Those generic Buffalos of yours would be an easy turnaround. Things like my weird little one-off European pocket-change, not so much.

Edited January 19, 2023 by RDCanecutter

[RDCanecutter 26397]

I've found myself driving past gold shops

That aren't on the way home.

[52-80 19147]

3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

I've found myself driving past gold shops

That aren't on the way home.

Stack it!

[bernorange 8359]

Singapore bought 44+ tons of gold in January.  China supposedly bought 24.9 tons in February.  BIS reports inceasing amounts of gold swaps too.  There seems to be a fair amount of interest in gold amongst central banks right now...

[RDCanecutter 26397]

9 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Stack it!

Soon, soon. I had a credit card bust loose and run wild last year, and until I pay it off, any gold I buy might as well be credit card gold. We don't do credit card gold round hea.