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Posted
  On 1/20/2023 at 4:00 PM, elfenix said:

there's two statements in my post to which this could conceivably apply.  i'd elaborate if i knew to which you are referring. 

 

between compressed air batteries, iron-air batteries, flow batteries, and various forms of gravity battery, it really seems like we're on the precipice of a grid-scale battery revolution. 

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We ain't on the precipice of shit.

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Posted

From Doug Lewin's Substack today. I'm an idiot when it comes to much of this but what I've read from him makes sense to me. 

Aurora estimated that the PCM would cost Texans an additional $3 billion to $5.3 billion per year — money paid entirely through electric bills for homes and businesses. That’s a net increase in costs, after subtracting out cost reductions in the energy market (the small gray bar in the slide below).

That amounts to roughly a 25% increase in energy costs.

If that 25% would guarantee a highly reliable grid, that would be one thing, but it won’t

 

  Reveal hidden contents
 

 

Posted
  On 2/28/2023 at 6:15 PM, Post Oak said:

From Doug Lewin's Substack today. I'm an idiot when it comes to much of this but what I've read from him makes sense to me. 

Aurora estimated that the PCM would cost Texans an additional $3 billion to $5.3 billion per year — money paid entirely through electric bills for homes and businesses. That’s a net increase in costs, after subtracting out cost reductions in the energy market (the small gray bar in the slide below).

That amounts to roughly a 25% increase in energy costs.

If that 25% would guarantee a highly reliable grid, that would be one thing, but it won’t

 

  Reveal hidden contents
 
 

 

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Why does he believe capacity markets are unproven and experimental? 

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Posted
  On 5/3/2023 at 5:00 PM, 4th&Five said:

 

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If we just stop trans surgery to pre-teens during the hot summer months and record cold spells, we reduce operating room power usage, and then the power grid is fine. Not too mention that do you know how much power we use to cool libraries full of books that need to be banned. Throwing those books outside will cut power usage of libraries by 80%.*

 

*rough estimate

Posted
  On 5/4/2023 at 8:08 PM, YGIFS said:

They're just setting up excuses and queueing up shit to blame.  

 

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Exactly.  Now if the grid fails, it was because the renewable energy sources couldn't keep up, regardless of the actual truty (insufficient total capacity).

Posted (edited)

GOP voters should be the ones who turn off their AC when temps hit 100 since they're responsible for this mess. 

When ERCOT puts out the message to conserve, I don't feel the slightest bit of guilt that I ignore them. 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Posted

Oh, wait until we hear why Lake left PUC during the Patrick/Abbott hissy fight.  I mean, we are taking a turn for the Third World like I couldn't imagine.  

Posted
  On 6/18/2023 at 1:31 AM, YGIFS said:
Oh, wait until we hear why Lake left PUC during the Patrick/Abbott hissy fight.  I mean, we are taking a turn for the Third World like I couldn't imagine.  

Definitely seemed odd
Posted

Since this thread popped up, I’ll take the opportunity to point out that ERCOT and the PUC had nothing to do with the fact that Texas had a 30 billion surplus and did nothing to stabilize the grid, instead pledging 10 billion for more natural gas plants that Texans will pay for in our bills, and might not even help stabilize the grid. 

Meanwhile in regulated markets, prices are skyrocketing because and there is no alternative to cheaper rates like in Texas, Ohio, and PA. 
 

Deregulation isn’t the problem. Republicans are the problem. 

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Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 11:19 AM, SydneyCarton said:

Since this thread popped up, I’ll take the opportunity to point out that ERCOT and the PUC had nothing to do with the fact that Texas had a 30 billion surplus and did nothing to stabilize the grid, instead pledging 10 billion for more natural gas plants that Texans will pay for in our bills, and might not even help stabilize the grid. 

Meanwhile in regulated markets, prices are skyrocketing because and there is no alternative to cheaper rates like in Texas, Ohio, and PA. 
 

Deregulation isn’t the problem. Republicans are the problem. 

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What's terrifying is this session was close to being so much worse. A corporate handout of a third of the budget surplus for what will be basically no net effect outside of higher prices for consumers was the best we could hope for with the legislation that was drafted.

Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 3:28 PM, gmr548 said:

What's terrifying is this session was close to being so much worse. A corporate handout of a third of the budget surplus for what will be basically no net effect outside of higher prices for consumers was the best we could hope for with the legislation that was drafted.

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The worst to me is they built new generation, that we pay for, but they still haven’t made weather proofing mandatory. The system works if we have just basic requirements for weather proofing. Nope. 

Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 3:36 PM, SydneyCarton said:

The worst to me is they built new generation, that we pay for, but they still haven’t made weather proofing mandatory. The system works if we have just basic requirements for weather proofing. Nope. 

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I go back and forth on what the worst part is. Is it the concerted effort to kneecap the renewable energy sources that are becoming the most cost effective options?

Or is it that we're leaving even the absolute lowest hanging energy efficiency fruit on the tree, which is probably more impactful than anything on the supply side at this point (seriously - we have an enormous amount of supply, way more than even CA which has 33% more residents)?

I do not like this game.

Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 3:41 PM, gmr548 said:

I go back and forth on what the worst part is. Is it the concerted effort to kneecap the renewable energy sources that are becoming the most cost effective options?

Or is it that we're leaving even the absolute lowest hanging energy efficiency fruit on the tree, which is probably more impactful than anything on the supply side at this point (seriously - we have an enormous amount of supply, way more than even CA which has 33% more residents)?

I do not like this game.

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We need natural gas plants. It’s a reality. People hate to hear it. The wind doesn’t blow when we need the power, period, and until battery tech gets a couple more orders of magnitude better, we need natural gas. Fine. But weather proof you’re fucking shit. Fucking windmills kill birds… this fucking state. 

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Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 3:41 PM, gmr548 said:

I go back and forth on what the worst part is. Is it the concerted effort to kneecap the renewable energy sources that are becoming the most cost effective options?

Or is it that we're leaving even the absolute lowest hanging energy efficiency fruit on the tree, which is probably more impactful than anything on the supply side at this point (seriously - we have an enormous amount of supply, way more than even CA which has 33% more residents)?

I do not like this game.

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The worst part is the hypocrisy.  On the one hand, Dan Patrick was on the steps of the capitol earlier this year boasting about Texas' renewable energy resources and saying that Texas ranks fifth among all polities worldwide in terms of renewable-energy capacity, trailing on the U.S. as a whole, China, India and Germany.  And Patrick said renewable energy   "helps clean the air and helps keep our prices lower. That’s why a lot of companies move here—because our cost per kilowatt is so much cheaper than other states.”  And yet he and the GOP do things like proposing bills that create a new process that makes it extremely difficult to set up offshore wind farms in state waters in the Gulf of Mexico, or another bill aimed at raising the costs involved for renewable-energy generators to sell their electricity in the state’s marketplace.   All of this regarding technology that saved Texans 11 billion dollars in energy costs last year. 
 

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Posted (edited)
  On 6/19/2023 at 8:22 PM, jimmyjazz said:

That's a bit of an overstatement.  Our wind supply, in the aggregate, is fairly steady and quite predictable.  Any one turbine?  Not so much.

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The biggest wind farms In Texas are in west Texas and the panhandle. And it simply does not blow was much in the summertime when we need it most. It has saved us in a couple cold snaps we’ve had in the last decade during the winter, however. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 8:45 PM, SydneyCarton said:

The biggest wind farms In Texas are in west Texas and the panhandle. And it simply does not blow was much in the summertime when we need it lost. I bud has saved us in a couple cold snaps we’ve had in the last decade during the winter, however. 

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Well, I don't think that's exactly what you said.  I took your statement as saying wind generated no useful power.  Agreed that it is variable, but at least it's PREDICTABLY variable, which allows for planning and accounting.

Whether the economics are truly acceptable is not for me to say.  There are so many hidden subsidies, etc. buried in the details for all kinds of generation tech, I'd have to be a full time engineer in that world to have any hope of sussing it all out.

Posted

Additionally our State Leadership is against considering any types of energy efficiency measures as well. The cheapest upgrades to grid security would come by adopting/encouraging energy efficient upgrades to existing buildings. Why consider that when you can give billions to natural gas power plants?

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Posted (edited)
  On 6/19/2023 at 8:53 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Well, I don't think that's exactly what you said.  I took your statement as saying wind generated no useful power.  Agreed that it is variable, but at least it's PREDICTABLY variable, which allows for planning and accounting.

Whether the economics are truly acceptable is not for me to say.  There are so many hidden subsidies, etc. buried in the details for all kinds of generation tech, I'd have to be a full time engineer in that world to have any hope of sussing it all out.

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I said, as you quoted, “the wind doesn’t blow when we need the power.” When = Summer. That is exactly what I said. Now you’ve come along telling me “I don’t think that’s exactly what you said” followed by “I took your statement as saying.”
 

it sounds like the problem is you misinterpreting something, and somehow blaming me for it. I never even remotely said or implied wind generated no useful power. Although I admit my last post was fat fingered like a motherfucker, I literally attempted to say “it has saved our butts during cold snaps.” How the fuck is that even an implication of “no useful power?”

Edited by SydneyCarton
Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 9:02 PM, SydneyCarton said:

I said, as you quoted, “the wind doesn’t blow when we need the power.” When = Summer. That is exactly what I said. Now you’ve come along telling me “I don’t think that’s exactly what you said” followed by “I took your statement as saying.”
 

it sounds like the problem is you misinterpreting something, and somehow blaming me for it. I never even remotely said or implied wind generated no useful power. Although I admit my last post was fat fingered like a motherfucker, I literally attempted to say “it has saved our butts during cold snaps.” How the fuck is that even an implication of “no useful power?”

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OK, pipe down.  If you say "the wind doesn't blow when we need the power" followed by a scenario in which we needed the power, then that seems contradictory.

We're on the same side here.  Wind is not infallible.  Solar is not infallible.  Nat gas (as we've seen) is not infallible.  Coal and nuclear have other problems.  I'm merely saying that there is a difference between predictable variability and unpredictable variability that is induced by poor planning or bad maintenance.

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Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 9:57 PM, jimmyjazz said:

OK, pipe down.  If you say "the wind doesn't blow when we need the power" followed by a scenario in which we needed the power, then that seems contradictory.

We're on the same side here.  Wind is not infallible.  Solar is not infallible.  Nat gas (as we've seen) is not infallible.  Coal and nuclear have other problems.  I'm merely saying that there is a difference between predictable variability and unpredictable variability that is induced by poor planning or bad maintenance.

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I understand all that. I’m simply saying Texas will never have a 100% wind and solar grid. Maybe late in my lifetime IF politics didn’t get in the way, and we know the odds of that. We need natural gas plants, or nuclear. It won’t be just renewable is all Im saying, until battery tech improves quite a bit more. 

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Posted (edited)
  On 6/19/2023 at 9:02 PM, SydneyCarton said:

I said, as you quoted, “the wind doesn’t blow when we need the power.” When = Summer. That is exactly what I said. Now you’ve come along telling me “I don’t think that’s exactly what you said” followed by “I took your statement as saying.”
 

it sounds like the problem is you misinterpreting something, and somehow blaming me for it. I never even remotely said or implied wind generated no useful power. Although I admit my last post was fat fingered like a motherfucker, I literally attempted to say “it has saved our butts during cold snaps.” How the fuck is that even an implication of “no useful power?”

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That's one of the reasons that having two primary types of renewable resources makes sense.  Need power in the hot summer?  Solar is your friend.  It's not as helpful in the dead of winter with a low angle of sunlight.  Need power in the shoulder seasons and the breezy winter?  Wind is your friend.

Kind of like how I equip my house with both AC and a heater.  There are power mixes (yes, including natural gas, nuclear, etc. -- thermal resources) that make all kinds of sense....when placed in a properly designed market.....with sufficient transmission resources.  Devil's in the details, and in Texas we don't do details - "details" is a commie word meant to siphon off profits, and we can't have that.

Edited by Brisketexan
Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 10:11 PM, SydneyCarton said:

I understand all that. I’m simply saying Texas will never have a 100% wind and solar grid. Maybe late in my lifetime IF politics didn’t get in the way, and we know the odds of that. We need natural gas plants, or nuclear. It won’t be just renewable is all Im saying, until battery tech improves quite a bit more. 

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Completely agreed.  Unfortunately, nuclear seems to be dead in the water as far as new plants go.  It's a shame.

Posted (edited)
  On 6/19/2023 at 10:15 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Completely agreed.  Unfortunately, nuclear seems to be dead in the water as far as new plants go.  It's a shame.

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Not true on the nuclear front actually - the NRC recently certified a new small modular reactor design that can be mass manufactured and is passively safe with built in containment as a sealed unit. 

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nrc-certifies-first-us-small-modular-reactor-design

This is a genuinely exciting zero carbon option that is already getting built for some pilot sites

https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/projects

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
  On 6/19/2023 at 10:27 PM, Captainant said:

Not true on the nuclear front actually - the NRC recently certified a new small modular reactor design that can be mass manufactured and is passively safe with built in containment as a sealed unit. 

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nrc-certifies-first-us-small-modular-reactor-design

This is a genuinely exciting zero carbon option that is already getting built for some pilot sites

https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/projects

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Very cool.  I'll be interested to see how that plays out in Texas.



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