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ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

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High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter

I was driving around just now, listening to NPR, and they called out Abbot for his bullshit. I believe the direct quote was something like "Governor Abbot falsely claimed renewable energy was the caus

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31984

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Has there been any discussion on the seemingly haphazard way the blackouts have been instituted?  I can believe and understand that taking down city circuits that draw the most demand is more efficient than shutting off 9 farmers in van zandt county, but how is it not organized in groups and waves that are efficient and predictable?  Where are the shutdown points?  Is it not all controlled remotely via central command or network of regional command stations?  
the neighborhoods I’ve read posts about where half gets power back and half doesn’t, why aren’t they alternating?

is it that difficult for each city to be split into X groups, and roll power to each group one at a time for an hour or two?  That way each group would have power for an hour or two then go without for (X-1)*hours of power while the other groups get their time?  That would not only give people enough power to maintain some semblance of climate control and cooking ability, but it would be a schedule that could be planned for. 
 

also, any functions that are deemed untouchable like city services buildings and hospitals and such should have emergency generators- because if they cannot lose power under any circumstances then they need to be prepared for unintentional power failure. Aaaaaaand if they have emergency generators, they should be able to handle some of the load of rolling blackouts, even if they aren’t as frequent as the residential.   I’d hope that if you told a police station, water treatment facility, jail, or hospital that they will lose power for 2 hours starting the next day from 7-9 pm they could accommodate that, or reply about the robustness of their backup capabilities (we have enough fuel to run our gennys for an hour only). 
 

this bullshit where some people are dark for 24-60 hours straight is unacceptable, and it doesn’t appear to be localized to any particular metro area in Texas. 

That, apparently, is up to the local provider, i.e. Oncor, Austin Energy, etc.  So if that has been fucked up, it's at their feet, not Ercot's.  One issue seems to be infirmity of local infrastructure, as in transformers.  Perhaps a power engineer can explain, but I see it reported and alluded to that certain local grids aren't good candidates for rolling because of some problem with transformers.

 Again not defending Ercot per se, just pointing out parties with primary responsibility.

 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 34078

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1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

I gotta say, the gotdam republicans are great at messaging.  Just about every conceivable right wing outlet and personality has tagged on to the wind power/green new deal bullshit.

but if you pay attention it's always pointing to something that could happen, while ignoring the thing literally fucking everyone in the face right now. It's amazing how well it works. "This is what will happen if we do what they want to do!" never mind the fact that it's fucking happening right now!

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31984

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1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

but if you pay attention it's always pointing to something that could happen, while ignoring the thing literally fucking everyone in the face right now. It's amazing how well it works. "This is what will happen if we do what they want to do!" never mind the fact that it's fucking happening right now!

True, true.  There is a tiny nugget of truth or reality buried somewhere in all the bullshit.  Makes it credible for the credulous.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13706

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Can't believe Rick Perry is saying this event is good in comparison to federal regulation. Something tells me that he is well compensated by someone that is directly or indirectly profiting from the deregulated industry.

EDIT: Actually I do believe that he would say that. 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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disgustipated

disgustipated 39

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12 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Capacity market would be a good first step.  You also have to remove any price caps from the energy market itself (i.e. the 9,000 per hour cap that is in place now).  I would also like to see more ancillary services come online to help with these.  Customers could sell the right for ERCOT to take their energy offline in the case of a grid emergency.  These already exist in ERCOT (Balancing Up Loads), but I am not sure that individual retail customers can take advantage of this. I believe in PJM they can, so why not monetize that as much as possible.  Hell, individual houses (i.e. retail customers) who have distributed generation (i.e. solar panels or a wind turbine) and are producing more than they can consume should be able to sell into the grid as well (I know there was talk that they could, but I am not sure if they can actually).  

Texas as a state needs to start investing heavily into battery tech and energy storage research.  There is zero reason they should not be leading in this given their investment in wind.

I'm a few years removed from the scene, but I remember discussions of an uncapped market.   I also remember there being problems with the grid itself across the power zones with certain spots being susceptible to congestion and creating pricing issues. 

Interesting point on the distributive generation, and as difficult as it was just getting smart meters installed, it seems that now that they are, there are lots of innovative products could arise.  However,  I cant see the power brokers, pun intended, allowing anyone else to "tap into the game" such as individual houses bidding into interruptible load markets.  Maybe an REP could offer a product / plan and couple with solar.  Get enough customers and start putting generation back into the grid, just thinking off the cuff.

 

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Js1

Js1 86926

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7 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

but if you pay attention it's always pointing to something that could happen, while ignoring the thing literally fucking everyone in the face right now. It's amazing how well it works. "This is what will happen if we do what they want to do!" never mind the fact that it's fucking happening right now!

Image result for we've tried nothing gif

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 11157

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13 hours ago, JohnLocke said:

What the hell are you talking about?  For the last 25 years, we have prioritized keeping rates low.  We've avoided the expensive option of a capacity market.  We have now had the black swan event that I'm sure will make us rethink this.  15 years ago our grid likely would have handled this.  Now it can't.  The main contributor was an inability to get natural gas, but having 10% of our overall capacity wiped out with frozen wind turbines was a kick in the butt too.  Nearly 80% of our power coming from wind and natural gas just makes the system less reliable.  What happened this week is completely unacceptable.  We've been out on this limb for a while, but Ercot always dodged the bullet and made it work. Now it has completely blown up in the most spectacular fashion possible. The net result is you and I and everyone else are going to pay significantly higher electricity rates in the future so we can guarantee this won't happen again.

why are you combining wind and gas?

minnesota:

https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=MN

https://www.eia.gov/state/data.php?sid=MN

natural gas: 19.2%

coal: 27.4%

nukes: 23.2%

wind/solar: 29.7%

civilization has not reached the end-times in minnesota

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106614

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Posted
I think a good compromise and hybrid solution would be an extra % to cover for the black swan event. You can opt out of it if you want, but then you are not prioritized when the grid needs support. You are out of power because you choose not to pay and want to take that risk (or have your own whole house generator, or some other option).
I just feel like we all, everyone, get taxed to the teeth as it is and are paying through our ears, it should be an option.

I appreciate the passion here but it clouds your message I think; are you saying you want the numbers re-ran and have the cost for whatever the solution to this mess, baked in to the bill every month? I say right on, but for those who feel making it compulsory is a tax or add-on and want to risk it or mitigate the risk on their own, they are free to do that but then no complaints when you are the one without power because you haven’t been paying the surcharge. It’s like adding the warranty to a purchase or saying no thanks I’ll own the risk.

That will create a massive free rider problem.

The answer, numbnuts, as I have been saying all fuxking thread is that ERCOT must change the market structure from an energy only market to one that includes a capacity market. As energy providers have to pay for capacity, that will be passed through to consumers just like transmission charges are.

For years, Texas electricity customers for the most part have not been paying the full cost of their electricity service and this week is the result.

Always a matter of cost, but they could never "guarantee" could never happen again, just a matter of how unlikely.  To get close to that guarantee, yeah expect to pay double or more than what you are now. (would be cheaper to put your own generator in, but they will need everyone to help out those who can't or don't want to do that)

They just dragged Abbot on Morning Joe. Laid out the info that's been posted here regarding wind vs natural gas failures, used his own words against him in his tweets and wrapped it up by essentially calling him a psychopath for going on TV during a disaster and blaming a representative from New York and a green new deal that doesn't exist for the deaths of the people he is in charge of governing. 

I wouldn't call the plant owner/operators bad guys.  But there is zero incentive for them to make significant capital investments in the current market.  The cause of this is utilities were shitbags in the 70s and 80s.  They were rife with corruption and all sorts of fun things got rolled into the energy rate (I worked with a utility a few times, and the stories some of the old folks told me were hysterical).  So consumers got mad.  Thus, they took away the local monopoly of the utility and we got de-regulation where you could choose your power company.
That now meant that the energy supplier wasn't always a large, vertically integrated energy company, which isn't always a bad thing.  This allowed companies to focus on what they do best.  However, the ERCOT market structure since the beginning was energy only.  There was no capacity market like those that exist in other ISOs on the US like NYISO and PJM (even CAISO has capacity, but CAISO is pretty fucked up itself).  Those capacity markets allow plant owners to have positive cash flows even in low pricing environment.
Oh, and ERCOT put pricing caps (we all know that pricing caps hinder the efficient market) on its power market.  I believe in 2011 or so, that cap was 2,000 or 3,000 per MWh.  I do know it increased it over the years to it sitting at 9,000, but again, if you are going to go free market, no price caps at all.  
So ultimately, the market structure is to blame.  In 2011, something similar happened, but not to the extent.  ERCOT hemmed and hawed about adding a capacity market, but they did not.  So, the result is that Texas energy consumers are not paying for the full cost of the energy they receive.  As a result, plant owners end up not spending money to weatherize plants, and voila, 2021 happens.

Basically it feels like the electricity utility system in Texas exists for profits, and the citizens are only important to provide payments. 

Which is crazy because as mentioned on this thread, Texas electricity costs/bills are already higher than other states/grids.

You are fucking stupid, you know that?  

Also, let's address this, your post stating that I "spent a few years as an intern or analyst in a utilities practice,".  Fuck off with your condescension.  You have been REPEATEDLY told you are wrong, that your takes are wrong.  We have repeatedly explained how the fucking system works.  Stop being an obtuse, gormless chucklehead, and get the fuck off this thread.   

Wind and solar can be more reliable with energy storage.  Texas, as the leader in wind energy in the US (third in the world I believe), should be helping shepherd the way.  We should be engaging with folks like ole Elon to try and help come up with solutions.  Texas can still be the energy capital of the world post oil and gas, but they are abdicating their place because of shitty state leadership.



Again....Penelope putting on a clinic, and cementing my crush on her (smart women rule).

Donkey poses a question so dumb as to defy understanding. It’s as if he suggested that some people pay to pave the road in front of their house, and some people don’t....ignoring the fact that the road is a community resource. The grid is a system. There’s not a wire running from the power plant to each individual house that can be switched off. And his suggestion actually highlights what is killing us: toxic, narcissist individualism at the compete and total expense of any common good.

See what Penelope has said about a capacity market. That’s what we need. It’s what we had (by virtue of the regulated design) before deregulation. It’s what other grids have. It’s what numerous people have been calling for for over a decade...to be attacked at every turn by profiteers.

It’s a collective insurance policy. No shit it costs money. So does my homeowners policy. Hopefully, I never need it. But if my house burns down or gets hit by a tornado, it gives me a place to live and a way to replace my home. If I don’t have it....I depend on family (if they can take me in), and I’m financially ruined.

We’d call most anyone without basic homeowners insurance a fucking moron. Yet the entire state of Texas went without it....and now we’re paying the price. People are dying. The property damage total will vastly exceed the dollars we saved on our utility bills. This is going to be the costliest disaster in state history other than Harvey. We made a stupid, stupid bet...and lost.
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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 34078

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Posted (edited)

it's beyond maddening to watch all of this happen. another preventable tragedy because we fear the socialism boogeyman and we have let far too few have way too much power and influence. I currently have power, but no water. Even if I did, we are now under a boil notice. I hope ERCOT gets sued out of existence. This is an amazing failure from just about everyone in power in this state. And yet our "leaders" still have the audacity to try to blame others and deflect. So fucking tired of it.

Edited by Longhorn_Fan68
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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 28081

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27 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

why are you combining wind and gas?

minnesota:

https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=MN

https://www.eia.gov/state/data.php?sid=MN

natural gas: 19.2%

coal: 27.4%

nukes: 23.2%

wind/solar: 29.7%

civilization has not reached the end-times in minnesota

 

When did Minnesota get civilization? Buncha damn squareheads 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78465

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43 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Can't believe Rick Perry is saying this event is good in comparison to federal regulation. Something tells me that he is well compensated by someone that is directly or indirectly profiting from the deregulated industry.

EDIT: Actually I do believe that he would say that. 

Perry going to Perry 

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Goredho

Goredho 17627

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34 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

What about days without power, then getting a bill @ 10,000% over normal?  Is that a sacrifice Texans should make?  Something is insanely broken here.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-electricity-texas-prices/texas-wholesale-electric-prices-spike-more-than-10000-amid-outages-idUSKBN2AF19A?fbclid=IwAR1VYQt2QIVsRbdMPs0hX47BPeCWlgDsPG-n_3jCFMDl0esb3V4xfTPM35U

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Texas-power-retailers-to-customers-in-face-of-15953843.php?fbclid=IwAR3r6uz6OMTrGTdjj5Ux_KqlZE7CYkqfp1iimS1ZMTookbrZJ8olyl8mOv8

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Wanker Bob

Wanker Bob 379

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

I gotta say, the gotdam republicans are great at messaging.  Just about every conceivable right wing outlet and personality has tagged on to the wind power/green new deal bullshit.

They know their fans and play directly to them knowing it's what they want to hear. They know it's false but will tell their fanboys whatever they need. 

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 11160

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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So if they cut you off, you have no power even though you are generating some that they may or may not be taking from you?  Uncommon event, sure, but less than ideal. 

 

without battery back up (more than doubling the initial cost, plus having to replace batteries in 20 or however many years), that is the only option.

My system is not for having power when the end times come. Its for saving some money in the long term, with the bonus of reducing my carbon footprint.

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106614

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Posted
No, it's probably not America's future. They will take some lessons from this and adjust.
But not us, because We're Texas.
For a bunch of pretend manly men, we sure do engage in a lot of emotional thinking down here. 

Emotional thinking would be a step up. We just get to every fork in the road and choose “stupid.” It’s our only inviolable rule.
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ndawg

ndawg 1242

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Emotional thinking would be a step up. We just get to every fork in the road and choose “stupid.” It’s our only inviolable rule.

And very soon, the signpost at the next fork in the road will be, "how should we respond to the catastrophe that just happened? By trying to prevent it from happening again? Or by blaming the invisible boogeyman and then doing absolutely fucking nothing about it?" Oh, right, Abbot already crossed that fork in the road and happily chose stupid, in the middle of the fucking crisis to boot.

These people will absolutely have no trouble believing that somehow liberals and socialism caused this mess, and will only come away from this more convinced that they need more power in order to stop the enemy from advancing.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13706

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49 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

They know their fans and play directly to them knowing it's what they want to hear. They know it's false but will tell their fanboys whatever they need. 

Exactly. And when someone only gets their news from bs sources like Tucker, they will think this is from numerous sources so it must be true. If you come along and tell them the truth, they won't even listen.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13706

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Posted

SIAP

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Texas-grid-again-faces-scrutiny-over-cold-15955392.php

Quote

 In a conference call Monday, Dan Woodfin, ERCOT’s senior director of system operations, said generators followed best practices for winterization, but the severity of the weather went “well beyond the design parameters of an extreme Texas winter.”

How much you want to bet that they followed the best practices that they themselves created with a constant eye on the costs. They're not going to listen to advice from impartial 3rd parties.

ERCOT and/or the PUC seem too much in bed in with the power generators when their main concern should always be the general public first. It's also bs that this went beyond the parameters of an extreme Texas winter. Once again, I assume they decided how extreme they wanted to view a Texas winter possibility.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19279

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2 hours ago, disgustipated said:

I'm a few years removed from the scene, but I remember discussions of an uncapped market.   I also remember there being problems with the grid itself across the power zones with certain spots being susceptible to congestion and creating pricing issues. 

Interesting point on the distributive generation, and as difficult as it was just getting smart meters installed, it seems that now that they are, there are lots of innovative products could arise.  However,  I cant see the power brokers, pun intended, allowing anyone else to "tap into the game" such as individual houses bidding into interruptible load markets.  Maybe an REP could offer a product / plan and couple with solar.  Get enough customers and start putting generation back into the grid, just thinking off the cuff.

 

That was caused because we had a ton of wind capacity in West Texas, so we would get negative pricing there, and crazy pricing at the Houston Hub where all the demand was.  CREZ helped with that, and came online at the end of 2013.  There are still congestion issues, but that is alleviated a bit by CRR (Congestion Revenue Rights).  

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19279

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Posted

Michael Webber on CNN.  He is a great resource.  As talked about earlier in this thread, Nat Gas really struggling partially due to lack of weatherization, but the real issue is they cannot get the fuel to burn.  I think I quoted it yesterday where I said all this oil and gas capacity is offline.  

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19279

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3 minutes ago, disgustipated said:

Are the plants really buying spot gas? Dont they have firm contracts for delivery? who on the hook for failure to deliver?

On the failure to deliver, since there are supply problems where the gas is frozen coming out of the wellhead, and they having issues even sending it through the pipes, I would imagine they will claim Force Majeure (Act of God).

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31984

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29 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

A perfect microcosm of the Republican Party of today.  An abstract idea (keeping feds out of power) should trump [sic] actual human misery and death.

JFC.

Forgot to add and no proposed solution anywhere in sight, with or without federal oversight/regulation.  Nothing but lame excuses for the status quo.

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disgustipated

disgustipated 39

Posted
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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

On the failure to deliver, since there are supply problems where the gas is frozen coming out of the wellhead, and they having issues even sending it through the pipes, I would imagine they will claim Force Majeure (Act of God).

indeed, im sure the lawyers got em buttoned up.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19279

Posted
Posted
Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Too much moisture?  Too cold?  Both?

 

So, here is a good quick summary on Bloomberg:

Natural gas played an outsize role in the disaster. As early as last Thursday, Energy Transfer LP sent a warning to customers on its Transwestern natural gas pipeline: It was going to be cold, and if producers’ shipments were to deviate from their normally scheduled flows, they needed to let the operator know.

Maybe the North Dakota oil field could withstand frigid temperatures, but the infrastructure that connects the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is exposed to the elements. Drilling liquids freeze inside pipes, forcing wells and gas processing plants shut.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106614

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Posted
SIAP
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Texas-grid-again-faces-scrutiny-over-cold-15955392.php
 In a conference call Monday, Dan Woodfin, ERCOT’s senior director of system operations, said generators followed best practices for winterization, but the severity of the weather went “well beyond the design parameters of an extreme Texas winter.”
“How much you want to bet that they followed the best practices that they themselves created with a constant eye on the costs. They're not going to listen to advice from impartial 3rd parties.
ERCOT and/or the PUC seem too much in bed in with the power generators when their main concern should always be the general public first. It's also bs that this went beyond the parameters of an extreme Texas winter. Once again, I assume they decided how extreme they wanted to view a Texas winter possibility.”


ERCOT. And the PUC. Looking out for the general public instead of giant donors to the Republican Party.

0be3bd6cca174b5610f93b2d32227019.gif


Forgot to add and no proposed solution anywhere in sight, with or without federal oversight/regulation.  Nothing but lame excuses for the status quo.


Oh no, more than that...actively blaming “liberals”....who have had zero power here for 30 years...for what happened. They will traffic in lies, because that is their currency.
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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19279

Posted
Posted

Also, South Texas was down.  That is probably why Austin seems to be more impacted that other areas since you have a PPA with South Texas.

South Texas Nuclear Plant Restarted (2:14 p.m.)

The South Texas Project nuclear plant has restarted the unit 1 reactor, which has been down since Monday.

The 1.35-gigawatt reactor is currently running at 5%, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The facility went offline early Monday because the extreme cold affected the feedwater pumps.

The South Texas Project nuclear plant has restarted the unit 1 reactor, which has been down since Monday.

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Updawg

Updawg 2378

Posted
Posted
Also, South Texas was down.  That is probably why Austin seems to be more impacted that other areas since you have a PPA with South Texas.

South Texas Nuclear Plant Restarted (2:14 p.m.)

The South Texas Project nuclear plant has restarted the unit 1 reactor, which has been down since Monday.

The 1.35-gigawatt reactor is currently running at 5%, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The facility went offline early Monday because the extreme cold affected the feedwater pumps.

The South Texas Project nuclear plant has restarted the unit 1 reactor, which has been down since Monday.


That’s amazing that it went down like that. I thought it was a bs rumor. How could it not be over engineered for this. Yeah it was cold but not to extreme to be thought about
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