ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

[Updawg 2261]

Btw thanks for these posts

[Nice Guy Eddie 13416]

What I know about nuclear plants comes from that HBO movie, Chernobyl, but I would assume that anything that impacts cooling the reactor, leads to a quick shutdown. Probably a good policy.

[TwiceHorn 31305]

16 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, here is a good quick summary on Bloomberg:

Natural gas played an outsize role in the disaster. As early as last Thursday, Energy Transfer LP sent a warning to customers on its Transwestern natural gas pipeline: It was going to be cold, and if producers’ shipments were to deviate from their normally scheduled flows, they needed to let the operator know.

Maybe the North Dakota oil field could withstand frigid temperatures, but the infrastructure that connects the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is exposed to the elements. Drilling liquids freeze inside pipes, forcing wells and gas processing plants shut.

I was also going to mention cheaper, above-ground pipelines and pumping stations.

Question for you, and or brisket.  Does ERCOT have the ability to shape the market into a capacity market or are they just dealing the cards given by the lege and PUC?

[Js1 85135]

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

3 minutes ago, Updawg said:

That’s amazing that it went down like that. I thought it was a bs rumor. How could it not be over engineered for this. Yeah it was cold but not to extreme to be thought about

Baytown?  No seriously though, the prior record low in February in Baytown was something like 27 degrees, and it only stayed that way for a few hours.  The high on Monday was 27, and it was only there at midnight Monday AM.  The number of hours of extreme cold contributed to that failure. 

[Brisketexan 104670]

I was also going to mention cheaper, above-ground pipelines and pumping stations.
Question for you, and or brisket.  Does ERCOT have the ability to shape the market into a capacity market or are they just dealing the cards given by the lege and PUC?

The second. They only have the power they are given.

And that power was “be good for profiteers. Full stop.”

[Pato del Muerto 52346]

18 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Also, South Texas was down.  That is probably why Austin seems to be more impacted that other areas since you have a PPA with South Texas.

South Texas Nuclear Plant Restarted (2:14 p.m.)

The South Texas Project nuclear plant has restarted the unit 1 reactor, which has been down since Monday.

The 1.35-gigawatt reactor is currently running at 5%, according to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The facility went offline early Monday because the extreme cold affected the feedwater pumps.

The South Texas Project nuclear plant has restarted the unit 1 reactor, which has been down since Monday.

This here makes no sense to me. A nuclear plant leaks so much energy that some should easily be available to maintain temps at pumps. The whole point of the cooling towers is to control the amount of heat generated.  It’s free heat. Use it productively. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

The second. They only have the power they are given.

And that power was “be good for profiteers. Full stop.”

The second.  ERCOT could definitely propose the market change, and they would be required to implement it (hell, I think they are better placed to come up with it), but the PUC would have to approve it.  Do not know for sure if the lege would have to vote on it, but it would be good to have everyone support the change as it will most definitely result in higher prices across the board for consumers, so more people to blame.  

[washparkhorn 9935]

 

9 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

The facility went offline early Monday because the extreme cold affected the feedwater pumps.

That's concerning. Plant has almost unlimited power, yet can't keep it's feedwater warm enough during a critical event to supply power? 

We have known about this issue since 1997 at least. Thought we fixed it. 

Hopefully tongue in cheek, but you never know: For any nuke operators out there who don't have instructions on the fix - here you go: https://www.powermag.com/prepare-your-nuclear-plant-for-cold-weather-operations/)

[Pato del Muerto 52346]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

I’d be curious about that 100% green energy question now. 
best of both worlds would seem to be having enough green generation to provide for 100% of demand in most cases, with enough thermal idling to throttle up when necessary due to increased demand, lowered capacity, or both. But that I assume is by far the most costly option.

[TwiceHorn 31305]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This here makes no sense to me. A nuclear plant leaks so much energy that some should easily be available to maintain temps at pumps. The whole point of the cooling towers is to control the amount of heat generated.  It’s free heat. Use it productively. 

It is strange.  I saw something credible that there was a FERC issue with Reactor 1, also.  So maybe there wasn't complete freedom to use Reactor 2 byproducts on Reactor 1.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’d be curious about that 100% green energy question now. 
best of both worlds would seem to be having enough green generation to provide for 100% of demand in most cases, with enough thermal idling to throttle up when necessary due to increased demand, lowered capacity, or both. But that I assume is by far the most costly option.

I think 100% green is fantastic IF there is storage capacity so that if the units go down, they would have some in storage to be able to operate off of until you can get the unit back up and running.  Current technology isn't there.  Texas could move to partner with leaders in the industry to go down that path together.  It would benefit EVERYONE.

[Pato del Muerto 52346]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think 100% green is fantastic IF there is storage capacity so that if the units go down, they would have some in storage to be able to operate off of until you can get the unit back up and running.  Current technology isn't there.  Texas could move to partner with leaders in the industry to go down that path together.  It would benefit EVERYONE.

Would be cool if a battery tech innovator moved to the austin metro area. Synergy and whatnot.  
 

tangential:  I was talking last night to a friend that works at Rivian, and we got to talking about EVs. I asked if anyone was sharing battery tech research or if they were all doing it on their own, she said everyone (I’m thinking tesla, Ford/Rivian, GM but I’m sure there are small ones too) is going solo with the hope of licensing their tech to the others. That’s the most capitalistic way, but I said I’d prefer they pool resources and share tech. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Pato del Muerto

[YChang 3432]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think 100% green is fantastic IF there is storage capacity so that if the units go down, they would have some in storage to be able to operate off of until you can get the unit back up and running.  Current technology isn't there.  Texas could move to partner with leaders in the industry to go down that path together.  It would benefit EVERYONE.

This. THIS! No reason Texas shouldn't remain energy capital of the world. The sources of it will just be different. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by YChang

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Would be cool if a battery tech innovator moved to the austin metro area. Synergy and whatnot.  

[TwiceHorn 31305]

19 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Baytown?  No seriously though, the prior record low in February in Baytown was something like 27 degrees, and it only stayed that way for a few hours.  The high on Monday was 27, and it was only there at midnight Monday AM.  The number of hours of extreme cold contributed to that failure. 

I figure that even if the power generators had been ultra-diligent and spared no expense (I fear they were neither), the reality of sub-10 degree temperatures would have caused problems.

Not the kind of problems we've had, but some problems nevertheless.

You just can't duplicate that on paper or in exercises.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I figure that even if the power generators had been ultra-diligent and spared no expense (I fear they were neither), the reality of sub-10 degree temperatures would have caused problems.

Not the kind of problems we've had, but some problems nevertheless.

You just can't duplicate that on paper or in exercises.

That is where I am.  I think that even if EVERY plant in the state had weatherized properly, there still would have been issues.  It wouldn't have been as bad or as prolonged, but it still would have happened.  Then the rolling brownouts would have been ok to manage it through the crisis.

[C-Man 27069]

2 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

 

More like Prick Ferry. Amirite?

[C-Man 27069]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

That is where I am.  I think that even if EVERY plant in the state had weatherized properly, there still would have been issues.  It wouldn't have been as bad or as prolonged, but it still would have happened.  Then the rolling brownouts would have been ok to manage it through the crisis.

How do historically colder states handle it? Is it simply better building codes to guard against the cold weather?

[Pato del Muerto 52346]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

How do historically colder states handle it? Is it simply better building codes to guard against the cold weather?

My guess would be lines buries deeper and/or above ground pumps/valves/whatever housed inside climate controlled areas. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

51 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, here is a good quick summary on Bloomberg:

Natural gas played an outsize role in the disaster. As early as last Thursday, Energy Transfer LP sent a warning to customers on its Transwestern natural gas pipeline: It was going to be cold, and if producers’ shipments were to deviate from their normally scheduled flows, they needed to let the operator know.

Maybe the North Dakota oil field could withstand frigid temperatures, but the infrastructure that connects the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is exposed to the elements. Drilling liquids freeze inside pipes, forcing wells and gas processing plants shut.

The freezing point of crude oil is roughly -50F.

[Nivek 16865]

54 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, here is a good quick summary on Bloomberg:

Natural gas played an outsize role in the disaster. As early as last Thursday, Energy Transfer LP sent a warning to customers on its Transwestern natural gas pipeline: It was going to be cold, and if producers’ shipments were to deviate from their normally scheduled flows, they needed to let the operator know.

Maybe the North Dakota oil field could withstand frigid temperatures, but the infrastructure that connects the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico is exposed to the elements. Drilling liquids freeze inside pipes, forcing wells and gas processing plants shut.

So a little starter fluid won't help?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

Just now, C-Man said:

How do historically colder states handle it? Is it simply better building codes to guard against the cold weather?

Well, they had some similar issues Texas is having now, especially the fuel issues, during the Polar Vortex of 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKCN0HQ4TB20141001

FYI, the Texas units they talk about in this article are the ones not in ERCOT but in SPP, so the Panhandle generally.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My guess would be lines buries deeper and/or above ground pumps/valves/whatever housed inside climate controlled areas. 

That too, but they had massive fuel issues in the last Polar Vortex (2014) as well.  Nat gas had the same issues we had, though not the same extent as the Permian wasn't frozen.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The freezing point of crude oil is roughly -50F.

It isn't crude oil that is freezing.  

[disgustipated 39]

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Well, they had some similar issues Texas is having now, especially the fuel issues, during the Polar Vortex of 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKCN0HQ4TB20141001

FYI, the Texas units they talk about in this article are the ones not in ERCOT but in SPP, so the Panhandle generally.

2014 Polar Vortex caused Dominion to exit Retail Market.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

Also, when natural gas production goes down, and there is a massive demand on natural gas, there is just no fuel.  Power plants do not store gas on site.  They require delivery into their system.  When that goes down, when pipes are congested, yeah, shit breaks.  This was LITERALLY the perfect storm where EVERYTHING went bad.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

3 minutes ago, disgustipated said:

2014 Polar Vortex caused Dominion to exit Retail Market.

There were a lot of companies that ended up without enough gas in storage during that mess.  That one impacted the East Coast and Midwest population centers, and I believe was more widespread than this one, which has largely been focused on Texas.

Just to add the population that was impacted in 2014, the Northeast Megalopolis (Boston to Washington DC Corridor which is less than 450 miles apart or less than half the distance from the Louisiana Border to El Paso) is about 50 million people, or 20 million people MORE than the entire population of Texas.

Edited February 17, 2021 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[bluto 4895]

2014 Polar Vortex caused Dominion to exit Retail Market.

So that’s why they got into the thievin vote machine world!?! A revenge play of some sort

[disgustipated 39]

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

There were a lot of companies that ended up without enough gas in storage during that mess.  That one impacted the East Coast and Midwest population centers, and I believe was more widespread than this one, which has largely been focused on Texas.

Right.  NRG snapped up their retail NE and Texas portfolio for a song from what I heard at the time. 

[TwiceHorn 31305]

20 minutes ago, C-Man said:

How do historically colder states handle it? Is it simply better building codes to guard against the cold weather?

I think for one thing, those states encounter that stuff routinely, so there are fewer surprises.

They also have more consistent seasons, so they're not going from 50-60 average highs down into the single digits.  Abrupt temperature changes can affect equipment differently than similar changes over a longer period of time. 

And yeah, their weatherizing is routine and proven and not carried out in the space of two weeks and based largely on what others have done in slightly different conditions (guessing here).

And I did see reference somewhere to "wellhead freezes," so it wasn't just power generation and gas transmission that fucked up, the sources were frozen.  So a good weatherization would have had generators, pipelines, and producers all on the same page and pulling in the same direction.

And, we have more places to deliver power to than MN or the Dakotas.

Edited February 17, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Austin is very close to having no water for most of its population.

Less than 24 hours ago..... Whoops.  Small error, but no biggie. 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Patrick Bateman

[Sawbonz 27443]

44 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’d be curious about that 100% green energy question now. 
best of both worlds would seem to be having enough green generation to provide for 100% of demand in most cases, with enough thermal idling to throttle up when necessary due to increased demand, lowered capacity, or both. But that I assume is by far the most costly option.

You know what would be nice. If you could hook up to some kind of nationwide system of wires where excess energy production from a given area could be shunted to another area that was in a deficit at a given moment. Different areas could take advantage of the best renewables given their unique geography and fossil fuel and nuclear plants could be placed close to their fuel supply and or where their overall environmental impact is minimized. Not sure what you would call such a setup 

[TwiceHorn 31305]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

Not sure what you would call such a setup 

Federally regulated is what you call it!  Gotdam socialism is another word.  🤬🤬

[Neonmoon 38127]

So if the Nuclear reactor is going back online, how long to people get power back? Serious question?

[TheRealRonWeaver? 1258]

Hey guys. San Antonio appreciates the updates. I guess we only get power on Sundays and Wednesdays. Good thing the water was still on until today. Anyways, I appreciate the updates. Talk to you next week! Until then, keep your feet on the ground, and keep reaching for first-world status!

[TwiceHorn 31305]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So if the Nuclear reactor is going back online, how long to people get power back? Serious question?

I suspect that is the reason for the climbing capacity mentioned a few posts ago.  The spread between capacity and demand is now almost 10GW, to the extent you can trust ERCOTs numbers.  The biggest I had seen previously was about 7GW.

That has got to mean some people coming back online.

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Homercles 10205]

Has ERCOT considered lightning?  I bet those 1.21 jigga watts would help bridge the gap until the nuclear plant is fully online.  

[Brisketexan 104670]

You know what would be nice. If you could hook up to some kind of nationwide system of wires where excess energy production from a given area could be shunted to another area that was in a deficit at a given moment. Different areas could take advantage of the best renewables given their unique geography and fossil fuel and nuclear plants could be placed close to their fuel supply and or where their overall environmental impact is minimized. Not sure what you would call such a setup 

Pure, red, baby blood-drinking communism, that’s what that would be!

[Pig Bellmont 8692]

1 minute ago, Homercles said:

Has ERCOT considered lightning?  I bet those 1.21 jigga watts would help bridge the gap until the nuclear plant is fully online.  

[High Plains Drifter 10981]

 

Just found out that the E and R in ERCOT stands for "Energy Reliability"!!  Hilarious!

 

 

[Michael Knight 12899]

 

 

They were doing that?

[4th&Five 41461]

I thought the Ercot guys that that was a false rumor. 

[C-Man 27069]

37 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Well, they had some similar issues Texas is having now, especially the fuel issues, during the Polar Vortex of 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKCN0HQ4TB20141001

FYI, the Texas units they talk about in this article are the ones not in ERCOT but in SPP, so the Panhandle generally.

Perhaps. But I'm seeing friends in other parts of the country such has NYC and Ohio who are utterly amazed that we've had blackouts of this size and scope that cannot be tied in to fallen lines, blown transformers, etc. Even in those cases, power was restored comparatively fast.

[Dark Horse 2263]

4 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

 

They were doing that?

Of course they were, they’re trying to make as much money as possible. Leave it up to Comrade Abbott to disrupt the free market. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Dark Horse

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19094]

Just now, C-Man said:

Perhaps. But I'm seeing friends in other parts of the country such has NYC and Ohio who are utterly amazed that we've had blackouts of this size and scope that cannot be tied in to fallen lines, blown transformers, etc. Even in those cases, power was restored comparatively fast.

That is also true.  The issue there is when they have a unit go down, they are connected to the US GRID, and ERCOT is not.  So if NYISO has some plants go down, it can get energy from PJM to balance everything.  I think the last widespread blackout in the NE was 2003, and you can see how if one part of the grid went down, it took a lot of the rest of it out.  Fun times.

[Neonmoon 38127]

4 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

 

They were doing that?

You know the whole “we are energy independent” Trumpers. That’s not really true. In the sense we produce that much, but these are private companies that sell to the highest bidder. They don’t make sure all our energy is supplied by US and then export the rest. We still import 50% of our energy from Middle East and South America. 

[Francisco 2.0 32346]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What I know about nuclear plants comes from that HBO movie, Chernobyl, but I would assume that anything that impacts cooling the reactor, leads to a quick shutdown. Probably a good policy.

If you want to go down a rabbit hole, this is about a good of rabbit hole to go down.  University of Illinois energy professor can teach you just about anything you would want to learn about a nuke, and he explains the subject well.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKH_iLhhkTyt8Dk4dmeCQ9w

 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Francisco 2.0

[hayden_horn 11360]

10 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

 

They were doing that?

 

7 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

I thought the Ercot guys that that was a false rumor. 

well, greg abbott has been on tv lying all day long, so what's another log on the pile?

[High Plains Drifter 10981]

 

 

 I was driving around just now, listening to NPR, and they called out Abbot for his bullshit. I believe the direct quote was something like "Governor Abbot falsely claimed renewable energy was the cause of the power outages in Texas."

 

Sidenote: The reason I was driving around was because the local federally subsidized apartment housing complex for the elderly and disabled doesn't have power. One of the tenants is a client of my wife. She called my wife and my wife found out her client was freezing in her crappy little apartment. My wife called the managers, who said there was nothing they could do, then she called the local police, who said there was nothing they could do but there was a "warming shelter" set up in the county fire house, so it fell to me to go pick up my wife's client and drive her to the warming shelter. When I got there, I learned that there were probably 20 additional old people who needed rides.

By that time, my wife had called a few other people, so between the three of us, we got them all to the shelter in about an hour. After that I went to fill up on gas, and there were lines of cars at the gas station. I don't know if that is because of stupid people panicking, or because all the other gas stations not having power, or what.

 

And so it goes. Its the end times, fellas.