ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

[Bama Chick 28596]

I think our population, geographical area and number of major cities makes it a bit more of a challenge than OK, AR, NM or LA.

Well, yeah but those aren’t unknown factors.

Every state may have different needs and challenges but that’s what the planners and engineers are for.

Texas should have a Texas sized grid and infrastructure just like those other states should have systems in place to meet their needs.

It’s a bit of a cop out to make the “Texas is bigger and different” excuse as if that’s some kind of surprise.

[YChang 3531]

10 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Well, yeah but those aren’t unknown factors.

Every state may have different needs and challenges but that’s what the planners and engineers are for.

Texas should have a Texas sized grid and infrastructure just like those other states should have systems in place to meet their needs.

It’s a bit of a cop out to make the “Texas is bigger and different” excuse as if that’s some kind of surprise.

What you said and what Twicehorn said isn't mutually exclusive you know.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

20 minutes ago, Foosters said:

State	November 2020 rate (cents/kWh)	Avg. monthly usage (kWh)	Avg. bill	Cost ranking
Alabama	13.00	1,136	147.68	49
Alaska	22.53	601	135.41	43
Arizona	11.69	1,033	120.76	31
Arkansas	10.59	1,028	108.87	24
California	22.26	554	123.32	35
Colorado	12.38	678	83.94	3
Connecticut	21.41	690	147.73	50
Delaware	13.62	912	124.21	36
Florida	12.00	1,089	130.68	42
Georgia	11.38	1,062	120.86	32
Hawaii	28.84	506	145.93	48
Idaho	9.67	1,000	96.70	8
Illinois	13.41	692	92.80	5
Indiana	13.23	928	122.77	34
Iowa	12.34	831	102.55	14
Kansas	12.98	861	111.76	26
Kentucky	11.43	1,052	120.24	30
Louisiana	9.94	1,187	117.99	29
Maine	16.17	546	88.29	4
Maryland	13.27	940	124.74	37
Massachusetts	22.10	583	128.84	41
Michigan	16.43	633	104.00	18
Minnesota	12.92	748	96.64	7
Mississippi	11.99	1,132	135.73	45
Missouri	10.07	994	100.10	12
Montana	11.22	865	97.05	9
Nebraska	10.73	957	102.69	16
Nevada	11.61	854	99.15	11
New Hampshire	19.20	599	115.01	27
New Jersey	15.69	654	102.61	15
New Mexico	12.94	615	79.58	2
New York	18.91	572	108.17	22
North Carolina	11.64	1,042	121.29	33
North Dakota	10.26	1,063	109.06	25
Ohio	12.35	841	103.86	17
Oklahoma	10.27	1,039	106.71	20
Oregon	11.12	969	107.75	21
Pennsylvania	13.51	805	108.76	23
Rhode Island	23.58	577	136.06	46
South Carolina	12.68	1,082	137.20	47
South Dakota	12.03	978	117.65	28
Tennessee	11.10	1,150	127.65	39
Texas	12.20	1,112	135.66	44
Utah	10.29	745	76.66	1
Vermont	19.68	538	105.88	19
Virginia	11.65	1,078	125.59	38
Washington	9.84	1,023	100.66	13
West Virginia	12.46	1,026	127.84	40
Wisconsin	14.77	660	97.48	10
Wyoming	11.12	854	94.96	6
U.S. average	13.35	867	115.74

 

 

Damn yall use a lot of electricity in the south in winter. I'd hate to see your summer usage. 

[TwiceHorn 31985]

4 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Damn yall use a lot of electricity in the south in winter. I'd hate to see your summer usage. 

I discovered that Louisiana uses nearly twice as much energy per capita as Texas.

One of the key factors is petroleum refining and chemical plants and other heavy industry, to include oil drilling.

 

[DDD Dad 14571]

6 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Solid 5" overnight here in Denver and no issues.

Something something a solid 5" in your mom overnight.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4998]

54 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Yet most other states in the same region and similar weather are able to keep the power on?

So you are saying that you can pretty much say with a straight face that if LA was on it's own power grid it wouldn't have had similar problems? You can't really compare Oklahoma and Arkansas, because they both regularly see much lower temperatures than Texas. Blaming the plants in Texas for not winterizing better is basically as dumb as blaming your ass for not winterizing better.

[TwiceHorn 31985]

6 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

So you are saying that you can pretty much say with a straight face that if LA was on it's own power grid it wouldn't have had similar problems? You can't really compare Oklahoma and Arkansas, because they both regularly see much lower temperatures than Texas. Blaming the plants in Texas for not winterizing better is basically as dumb as blaming your ass for not winterizing better.

Well there's that and we have to have more plants and more infrastructure to get our fuel to plants and, less in terms of capacity, but switching it in and out, connecting hundreds or thousands of local grids into a single network poses problems of its own.

When all those numbers go up, the potential for fuckups goes up, too.

There's more failure points in a bigger system.  That scales.  Prevention does not, necessarily.

Edited February 18, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20834]

Other than working a few years as a cotton farmer with his dad, Rick Perry has been a government employee his whole life. 

And yet he has a 1.5 million dollar house/property in Round Top.

https://esearch.fayettecad.org/Property/View/55364


It's just breathtaking how these bureaucrats can decry the very government they work for while, simultaneously sucking off its tits. 



 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I discovered that Louisiana uses nearly twice as much energy per capita as Texas.

One of the key factors is petroleum refining and chemical plants and other heavy industry, to include oil drilling.

 

I thought that graph was just household usage. At least it seems structured that way.  It has Texas and Louisiana about even.  If so, the northeast uses about half the kwh per household of southern states. And that includes states like Maine with large old houses.  Just eyeballing it, I would guess most people are aiming for the $100 a month sweet spot no matter how much they pay per kwh which indicates conservation can be encouraged. Of course Maine probably has almost zero electric heat so that plays a role too. Maybe, November isn't necessarily heater weather in the south either. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by FondrenRoad

[ndawg 1242]

It’s quintessentially American to figure out who to blame before we’ve even studied the problem in detail.

[Guest Lobo]

I think about this 1 in 100 year event business.  And I think about somebody buying a $50,000 car.  And I think about the "Dan Patrick Device" in the trunk.  It's $20 worth of materials it takes to make that neon pull latch in the trunk and then the actual mechanism it's attached to so that in the event you, as a closeted Lieutenant Governor of a major U.S. State are locked in the trunk by a jilted lover who threatens to take you to Maryland to receive experimental transsexual surgery, can open the trunk while the car is stopped and flee to safety.  and that's only happened to one lieutenant governor of Texas in 100 years but if we can protect against that event with just .0004 of spending on the overall project, can't we boost our grid with an commensurate CapEx?  

I don't think Wind Cancer is gonna save some of these moron's asses this time around.  Even moronic Trump voters are looking at this shitshow and realizing the math don't add up.  

[TwiceHorn 31985]

2 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

I thought that graph was just household usage. At least it seems structured that way.  It has Texas and Louisiana about even.  If so, the northeast uses about half the kwh per household of southern states. And that includes states like Maine with large old houses.  Just eyeballing it, I would guess most people are aiming for the $100 a month sweet spot no matter how much they pay per kwh which indicates conservation can be encouraged. Of course Maine probably has almost zero electric heat so that plays a role too. Maybe, November isn't necessarily heater weather in the south either. 

It is.  Just something I noticed rooting around on stuff.  

[FondrenRoad 4378]

8 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

So you are saying that you can pretty much say with a straight face that if LA was on it's own power grid it wouldn't have had similar problems? You can't really compare Oklahoma and Arkansas, because they both regularly see much lower temperatures than Texas. Blaming the plants in Texas for not winterizing better is basically as dumb as blaming your ass for not winterizing better.

Here's the thing though. Louisiana doesn't have its own power grid. Other states are able to shift power from other areas. Since Texas goes it alone and can't do that, they should have built in more resiliency, not less.  So yes, Texas should have winterized. More so than Louisiana, Arkansas, or any other state that is able to rely on its neighbors in a pinch. 

[TwiceHorn 31985]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

Here's the thing though. Louisiana doesn't have its own power grid. Other states are able to shift power from other areas. Since Texas goes it alone and can't do that, they should have built in more resiliency, not less.  So yes, Texas should have winterized. More so than Louisiana, Arkansas, or any other state that is able to rely on its neighbors in a pinch. 

NAAL's post I think reads wrong.  It sounds like he's excusing failure to winterize.  Based on earlier discussion, that's not what he really means.

It's impossible to accurately simulate temperatures 20 degrees less than normal when they havent occurred here before.  Even if they had made a better effort -- make no mistake, they didn't -- there still would have been some pretty serious problems because you just can't account for everything in these kind of events.

Those that regularly experience extreme temperatures -- with their particular setups -- can better prevent problems than those who don't.

[Dahobbs 18183]

16 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

So you are saying that you can pretty much say with a straight face that if LA was on it's own power grid it wouldn't have had similar problems? You can't really compare Oklahoma and Arkansas, because they both regularly see much lower temperatures than Texas. Blaming the plants in Texas for not winterizing better is basically as dumb as blaming your ass for not winterizing better.

This is stupid. Every single individual in the state is forced to be better protected for similarly rare events than the state was. That's exactly what insurance does. For instance, I have flood insurance. The overall cost is small (like a few hundred a year), but it protects me financially in case of a 500 or 1000 year event. But, here, there are efficiencies to be gained by having the state and/or core industries bare the cost. Instead of winterizing every single household and business, we just winterize the key components to provide us power. So no, it isn't the same at all. 

[Dahobbs 18183]

9 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

NAAL's post I think reads wrong.  It sounds like he's excusing failure to winterize.  Based on earlier discussion, that's not what he really means.

But, as you said, that is how it reads. And, this wasn't an instance of a well laid planning falling before the enemy. This was charging the enemy with no plan after being advised of the consequences and hoping for the best. You're damn straight we can cast some fucking blame. If a fucking building size meteor hit or the yellow stone super volcano exploded, I'd be all for giving folks some slack on a completely unpredictable and impossible to prepare for event. This wasn't that. It got a few degrees below freezing for less than a week. Our infrastructure should be able to survive that. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Dahobbs

[JimmyJames 12271]

29 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Other than working a few years as a cotton farmer with his dad, Rick Perry has been a government employee his whole life. 

And yet he has a 1.5 million dollar house/property in Round Top.

https://esearch.fayettecad.org/Property/View/55364


It's just breathtaking how these bureaucrats can decry the very government they work for while, simultaneously sucking off its tits. 



 

Getting the state government to look the other way while you endanger the public so you can save a few billions here or there ain’t free. You think aggy Rick would look the other way without demanding some sort of payment in return? That’s not how the mob calling itself the Republican Party operates. 

[cactusflinthead 27626]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Will take money paid by the consumer?  Absolutely no it will not.  The default of a lot of people to give up your money and my money to fix a very fixable problem (that rears its head very infrequently) is fucking disturbing. I’ve a very firm handle on the business. Don’t understand why another default position is I don’t care about people dying and I’m getting negged to death. 

You didn't start giving a damn about anything besides your own bank account yesterday and it's unlikely you're going to any time soon.

Smug condescension added to being a chickenshit earns a pile of negs from me. You can change names and deny it, but the the shitty takes don't change.

The common good, does that mean anything to you?

 

 

[Pam Cummings 9823]

3 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Correct. It also happened in 2002. No, I don’t want to pay more for electricity for 10 year storms. ERCOT really fucked up, but any explanation will likely be lost on this crowd. And lol at the Highland Park graphic, and generally anytime Wanker Bob posts. 

but i'm sure when netflix hit you with that upcharge you agree without thinking about it.

[JimmyJames 12271]

43 minutes ago, ndawg said:

It’s quintessentially American to figure out who to blame before we’ve even studied the problem in detail.

The detailed study was done back in 2011. Nothing was done to fix it. It’s not hard to then figure out who is at fault for this. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by JimmyJames

[ndawg 1242]

2 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

You didn't start giving a damn about anything besides your own bank account yesterday and it's unlikely you're going to any time soon.

Smug condescension added to being a chickenshit earns a pile of negs from me. You can change names and deny it, but the the shitty takes don't change.

The common good, does that mean anything to you?

Also, holy shit, even a completely selfish asshole with an ounce of forethought would understand that catastrophes like this one are terrible for just about everybody's long term prosperity.

There are many, many examples of public infrastructures all over the world. Texas is looking downright third world right now. It doesn't take a genius to realize we could probably be getting much more reliable capacity at an even lower cost if we had better management, even without looking into any of the details.

[ndawg 1242]

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

The detailed study was done back in 2011. Nothing wasn’t done to fix it. It’s not hard to then figure out who is at fault for this. 

Sure, I'm not saying we don't already have a good idea that some people really fucked up. It's just very American that the public spectacle everyone sees among politicians is a bunch of people arguing over who should get the blame. Here on a message board, what else can we do besides vent (I've got a lot of venting to do myself, too)

[cactusflinthead 27626]

More of that boring ole competence

Imagine if all the pols were pulling in the same direction.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What solution did I post there?

‘83 was the closest approximate. The others don’t come close. You forgot 2002. This was a 100-year event. 

I am not talking about the solution you posted, numbnuts.  I am talking about the solutions many of us started proposing back on page 1 of this thread.  

Ultimately, as our political institutions are irreparably broken, then we need to make sure that the market will function well.  The energy only market itself needs to be tweaked.  We need to have a capacity market like ALL THE OTHER MAJOR MARKETS IN THE US HAVE.  That incentivized keeping units fighting fit.  I know a lot of people here are calling the power gen companies bad people, but they are companies.  They are not here to run a charity.  And they make decisions not to weatherize because of a, b, c.  A capacity market partially solves some of that.  Having a capacity market, and removing the price cap from the wholesale energy market, would necessarily mean that the consumer pays more.  It is a fact.

On the oil and gas side, if Texas wants to be the energy capital of the world, and maintain that, it needs to fucking act like it.  The RRC has the power to require oil and gas operations to weatherize.  There is ZERO excuse for this shit anymore.

Further, Texas needs to embrace new technology.  We need to partner with folks to look into battery and storage technology.  We need to figure out how to encourage people to invest in distributed generation (i.e. Solar arrays on their roofs) as those not only become a resource for the grid when there is high demand, but also, because it is just fucking smart.  The Federal Govt offers tax incentives.  Since Texas doesn't have an income tax, maybe there could be a moratorium on value jumps for property taxes, or some sort of property tax rebate.  In any case, we need to start thinking outside the box is we want to maintain that title of Energy Capital of the World.

As someone outside of Texas looking in, this is a very bad fucking look all around.

[ndawg 1242]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am not talking about the solution you posted, numbnuts.  I am talking about the solutions many of us started proposing back on page 1 of this thread.  

Ultimately, as our political institutions are irreparably broken, then we need to make sure that the market will function well.  The energy only market itself needs to be tweaked.  We need to have a capacity market like ALL THE OTHER MAJOR MARKETS IN THE US HAVE.  That incentivized keeping units fighting fit.  I know a lot of people here are calling the power gen companies bad people, but they are companies.  They are not here to run a charity.  And they make decisions not to weatherize because of a, b, c.  A capacity market partially solves some of that.  Having a capacity market, and removing the price cap from the wholesale energy market, would necessarily mean that the consumer pays more.  It is a fact.

On the oil and gas side, if Texas wants to be the energy capital of the world, and maintain that, it needs to fucking act like it.  The RRC has the power to require oil and gas operations to weatherize.  There is ZERO excuse for this shit anymore.

Further, Texas needs to embrace new technology.  We need to partner with folks to look into battery and storage technology.  We need to figure out how to encourage people to invest in distributed generation (i.e. Solar arrays on their roofs) as those not only become a resource for the grid when there is high demand, but also, because it is just fucking smart.  The Federal Govt offers tax incentives.  Since Texas doesn't have an income tax, maybe there could be a moratorium on value jumps for property taxes, or some sort of property tax rebate.  In any case, we need to start thinking outside the box is we want to maintain that title of Energy Capital of the World.

As someone outside of Texas looking in, this is a very bad fucking look all around.

I'm gonna be that guy who thinks of some naive solution, only to be told "that's been tried before and it's really stupid," but what the hell.. here it goes. It seems like the situation could be better for everyone if our electricity bill include a fixed payout to the electric company for our capacity allotment (based on square footage?) and a variable credit that comes from the city for the capacity we didn't use, or a charge if we went over capacity. The cost of energy could increase steeply the more a home exceeds their capacity, and the sum of all overcharges would fund the credit to those who stayed under their capacity. To make things more interesting, the credit reward for staying under capacity could be more lucrative the more you get your usage below capacity.

Am I nuts here?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Not sure why you’re arguing with me because I agree with most of what you say except passing costs along to the consumer, which is entirely too simple and gracious of uninformed consumers. You said “That is not the solution” to a post where I didn’t propose any specific solution. I still haven’t. I didn’t read beyond the first page where people proposed consumers just pay more because that’s not the answer.  
 

I will respond in more detail when I finish a lengthy essay on this exact subject. 

What I said is that people's bills will necessarily go up.  It won't be one to one (i.e. the consumer will not pay for all of it), but if you look at what those with similar markets to what I am suggesting (MISO, NYISO, NEPOOL, PJM), their rates are necessarily higher.  That is in part due to capacity, but it also in part due to much more strict renewable energy requirements.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

3 minutes ago, ndawg said:

I'm gonna be that guy who thinks of some naive solution, only to be told "that's been tried before and it's really stupid," but what the hell.. here it goes. It seems like the situation could be better for everyone if our electricity bill include a fixed payout to the electric company for our capacity allotment (based on square footage?) and a variable credit that comes from the city for the capacity we didn't use, or a charge if we went over capacity. The cost of energy could increase steeply the more a home exceeds their capacity, and the sum of all overcharges would fund the credit to those who stayed under their capacity. To make things more interesting, the credit reward for staying under capacity could be more lucrative the more you get your usage below capacity.

Am I nuts here?

The home is on the demand side. 

Capacity is based on generation capacity.  It starts with nameplate of a facility, then you back out planned down time and historical reliability.  That capacity is what a plant could deliver into the grid on an hourly basis.

The solution you propose would be some calculation of the average demand of a home (and would need to take into account weather and normal heating/cooling days in a month), fixed payments based on that, and then credits if you use less.  It isn't a bad idea, and is most likely how your retail energy provider would pass through a capacity charge.

However, I think the Capacity market needs to be at the wholesale level.  The retail energy provider should be required to pay for capacity based on their demand forecasts.  These capacity auctions could happen well in advance (based on longer term forecasts), and then there are true ups shorter in.

 

[Continental Op 3934]

lol @ Dr. Rex and his horseshit tough guy act coming off the top rope in here when he was in the carnage thread over on DT asking people about how plumbing worked when he couldn't figure shit out.  Go fuck yourself. 

[ndawg 1242]

8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

The home is on the demand side. 

Capacity is based on generation capacity.  It starts with nameplate of a facility, then you back out planned down time and historical reliability.  That capacity is what a plant could deliver into the grid on an hourly basis.

The solution you propose would be some calculation of the average demand of a home (and would need to take into account weather and normal heating/cooling days in a month), fixed payments based on that, and then credits if you use less.  It isn't a bad idea, and is most likely how your retail energy provider would pass through a capacity charge.

However, I think the Capacity market needs to be at the wholesale level.  The retail energy provider should be required to pay for capacity based on their demand forecasts.  These capacity auctions could happen well in advance (based on longer term forecasts), and then there are true ups shorter in.

I need to study up on how the whole supply chain for energy works. For instance, if a retail energy provider switches their upstream provider, how long does it take to change over? What would the batch size be of a unit of capacity sold at an auction? If the batch sizes are small enough, it seems like 10 day weather forecasts could be incorporated along with historical data in order to more accurately estimate needs.

Edited February 19, 2021 by ndawg

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Just now, Dr. Beeper said:

I have no idea what you mean with the first paragraph. 

What you perceive to be smug condescension is my ridiculous view of the first page, particularly your OP. The thread started off on a ridiculously emotional premise. Of course the public good means something to me. Straw man much?

A week’s prosperity will be lost. We look bad but will improve. Your comment on capacity reliability at lower cost with better management is precisely correct and is central to the point I’ll make. 

The common good is what you are arguing against. Maintaining the system for the benefit of the consumer as well as the producer is what I am asking. You have clearly stated you don't want to contribute dollar one to the greater good of enforcement of regulations to ensure that events like this do not happen.

People are dying. That doesn't elicit an emotional response from you? Are we all debits and credits? Weighed in the balance and found wanting.

Go back to your oil barons.

Go count your blood money.

Hell yeah I am emotional. I'm fucking pissed that you are going to profit by the dead bodies of this week

Fuck off. And I mean this in my most emotive way.

Go pour yourself a cup of gold. Imagine it's value. Calculate how much natty is going to pay this month. That shiny object you lust after in hopes of that fat bonus will not comfort you. 

It is never enough.

Rage. I have rage for you. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

“Much more strict renewable energy requirements” is precisely the problem, from a reliability and efficiency perspective, and therefore cost perspective. In this instance, it fucked us in the reliability department. 

Bullshit.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

3 minutes ago, ndawg said:

I need to study up on how the whole supply chain for energy works. For instance, if a retail energy provider switches their upstream provider, how long does it take to change over? What would the batch size be of a unit of capacity sold at an auction? If the batch sizes are small enough, it seems like 10 day weather forecasts could be incorporated along with historical data in order to more accurately estimate needs.

Those retail companies generally have either a trading arm in house (Reliant/Direct Energy had that) or they use a company that trades in the wholesale market (Mercuria/BP and Shell).  That all depends on the way they are structured.  Load demand is absolutely done at a more granular level.  And that is what some of the more real time or ancillary services could help manage.  However, in the capacity market, which is done to help with capital budgets for facilities, that is much more forward looking, which it must be because of the nature of those capital projects.

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Bullshit.

Yeah that was some ridiculously disingenuous bullshit. Fuck that guy.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

Just now, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m getting negged and negged for this, and this is why I didn’t really have the energy to lay out my rationale. It’s probably gonna fall on deaf ears because nobody here wants to hear it. But I’ll lay out a numbers based argument here later and see what you think. 

@Continental Op @cactusflinthead No idea where the vitriol is coming from. Yeah, I had and have plumbing issues because I too have been in a terrible freeze. And blood money?  Dude get ahold of yourself. 90% of revenue I have is from oil. Our 10% gas will not be subject to average prices in February because of the way our contract is written. You must think I’m some amalgamation of other posters and Jerry Jones. I have a tiny investment. No, when it comes to this thread, it should be addressed unemotionally. But you can’t do that. 

Because renewable energy didn't cause the failure here.  Take your bullshit elsewhere.  You are speaking with a lot of folks here who have spent years in the industry. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m getting negged and negged for this, and this is why I didn’t really have the energy to lay out my rationale. It’s probably gonna fall on deaf ears because nobody here wants to hear it. But I’ll lay out a numbers based argument here later and see what you think. 

@Continental Op @cactusflinthead No idea where the vitriol is coming from. Yeah, I had and have plumbing issues because I too have been in a terrible freeze. And blood money?  Dude get ahold of yourself. 90% of revenue I have is from oil. Our 10% gas will not be subject to average prices in February because of the way our contract is written. You must think I’m some amalgamation of other posters and Jerry Jones. I have a tiny investment. No, when it comes to this thread, it should be addressed unemotionally. But you can’t do that. 

You don’t have the energy to lay out the rationale for your bullshit statement? So stop posting then. You have said as much more than once then you keep posting bullshit which is the definition of a troll.

[JimmyJames 12271]

I bet it’s coming in 2 weeks.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m getting negged and negged for this, and this is why I didn’t really have the energy to lay out my rationale. It’s probably gonna fall on deaf ears because nobody here wants to hear it. But I’ll lay out a numbers based argument here later and see what you think. 

@Continental Op @cactusflinthead No idea where the vitriol is coming from. Yeah, I had and have plumbing issues because I too have been in a terrible freeze. And blood money?  Dude get ahold of yourself. 90% of revenue I have is from oil. Our 10% gas will not be subject to average prices in February because of the way our contract is written. You must think I’m some amalgamation of other posters and Jerry Jones. I have a tiny investment. No, when it comes to this thread, it should be addressed unemotionally. But you can’t do that. 

Go fuck yourself. 

[ndawg 1242]

3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

You don’t have the energy to lay out the rationale for your bullshit statement? So stop posting then. You have said as much more than once then you keep posting bullshit which is the definition of a troll.

"I have a great argument but you idiots are all too block-headed to really consider it" was a tired troll schtick in the 90s.

[TwiceHorn 31985]

1 hour ago, ndawg said:

Sure, I'm not saying we don't already have a good idea that some people really fucked up. It's just very American that the public spectacle everyone sees among politicians is a bunch of people arguing over who should get the blame. Here on a message board, what else can we do besides vent (I've got a lot of venting to do myself, too)

No, you're absolutely right.  It's not dominant here, and politically motivated,but first it was wind power.  Then it was ERCOT, which is dominant here.  Turns out maybe both had a little part to play.  But as facts emerge, it's the ground-floor players in the generation plants and gas supply that seem to be primarily at fault.

[SizzleChest 8302]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’m getting negged and negged for this, and this is why I didn’t really have the energy to lay out my rationale. It’s probably gonna fall on deaf ears because nobody here wants to hear it. But I’ll lay out a numbers based argument here later and see what you think. 

@Continental Op @cactusflinthead No idea where the vitriol is coming from. Yeah, I had and have plumbing issues because I too have been in a terrible freeze. And blood money?  Dude get ahold of yourself. 90% of revenue I have is from oil. Our 10% gas will not be subject to average prices in February because of the way our contract is written. You must think I’m some amalgamation of other posters and Jerry Jones. I have a tiny investment. No, when it comes to this thread, it should be addressed unemotionally. But you can’t do that. 

You are attempting to blanket this thread with conservative talking points instead of discussing the issue....you know rationally and oriented on the issues.

No one here gives a shit about your opinion or investment portfolio.

You are a pathetic trolling windbag and performative asshat with no redeeming features.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I bet it’s coming in 2 weeks.

Haha fucker. He uses too many bigly words to be Donald 

[TwiceHorn 31985]

14 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Because renewable energy didn't cause the failure here.  Take your bullshit elsewhere.  You are speaking with a lot of folks here who have spent years in the industry. 

Actually, renewables probably played a very indirect role in that generation companies invested in and received subsidies for and patted themselves on the back for renewables while stripping their budgets for plant maintenance and winterizing.  Again, it's the generators' fault, but it was a shiny expensive object that distracted them.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Actually, renewables probably played a very indirect role in that generation companies invested in and received subsidies for and patted themselves on the back for renewables while stripping their budgets for plant maintenance and winterizing.  Again, it's the generators' fault, but it was a shiny expensive object that distracted them.

Not a fucking excuse.  When I worked for a big generation company, Wind was completely separate from a business and planning perspective from the more traditional coal and nat gas generation.  Plans were done based on each as a discrete business.  When I was in a more vertically integrated business, it was very similar.  

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4998]

1 hour ago, FondrenRoad said:

Here's the thing though. Louisiana doesn't have its own power grid. Other states are able to shift power from other areas. Since Texas goes it alone and can't do that, they should have built in more resiliency, not less.  So yes, Texas should have winterized. More so than Louisiana, Arkansas, or any other state that is able to rely on its neighbors in a pinch. 

No argument that not being on own own grid would have helped. That was clearly a poor decision in hindsight. But we could have thrown a few hundreds of million at winterizing these plants and the pipelines that feed them and had the same problems. Of course we would have brought the surrounding states down instead of just ourselves had we been on a shared grid. Without a whole workforce of operators experienced in operating plants in these kinds of extreme cold conditions you are going to have massive disruptions. Then factor in that most plants have had huge overturn in operator workforce in the last ten years due to generational shifts, leading to a relatively young and inexperienced workforce compared to 2011. We basically had a perfect storm of ill thought out policy positions, workforce related issues, and unprecedented weather conditions.

[TwiceHorn 31985]

6 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Not a fucking excuse.  When I worked for a big generation company, Wind was completely separate from a business and planning perspective from the more traditional coal and nat gas generation.  Plans were done based on each as a discrete business.  When I was in a more vertically integrated business, it was very similar.  

I didn't say it was an excuse.  But you know it probably diverted resources and attention.  Even in your scenarios, budget was likely allocated to renewable at the expense of coal and gas.

[TwiceHorn 31985]

6 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

No argument that not being on own own grid would have helped. That was clearly a poor decision in hindsight. But we could have thrown a few hundreds of million at winterizing these plants and the pipelines that feed them and had the same problems. Of course we would have brought the surrounding states down instead of just ourselves had we been on a shared grid. Without a whole workforce of operators experienced in operating plants in these kinds of extreme cold conditions you are going to have massive disruptions. Then factor in that most plants have had huge overturn in operator workforce in the last ten years due to generational shifts, leading to a relatively young and inexperienced workforce compared to 2011. We basically had a perfect storm of ill thought out policy positions, workforce related issues, and unprecedented weather conditions.

While I totally agree that there are some real inherent problems to dealing with these kind of conditions, it is my impression that they didn't do hardly a gotdam thing and that's inexcusable.

[ndawg 1242]

7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Actually, renewables probably played a very indirect role in that generation companies invested in and received subsidies for and patted themselves on the back for renewables while stripping their budgets for plant maintenance and winterizing.  Again, it's the generators' fault, but it was a shiny expensive object that distracted them.

Even when we look at this level of detail, renewables themselves aren't to blame, it's a lack of project oversight that is to blame.

Internet debates about who is to blame are a welcome reprieve and a chance to off-gas. I certainly feel the desire to get pissed off, too. It's not helpful, but it is understandable. On the other hand, it disgusts me seeing our elected officials exploiting a crisis for political points before they could even know whether their decisions as leaders have contributed to it. And I think that's because they know if they don't establish a scapegoat now, they might actually get held to account over their role, which will probably land somewhere between "inept negligence" and "outright corruption" before it's all said and done.

[kevwun 16269]

33 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Actually, renewables probably played a very indirect role in that generation companies invested in and received subsidies for and patted themselves on the back for renewables while stripping their budgets for plant maintenance and winterizing.  Again, it's the generators' fault, but it was a shiny expensive object that distracted them.

For once in your life, can you not indulge your need to play devil's advocate?

[Satchel 6982]

Sobering: 

The Texas power grid was just “seconds or minutes” away from a catastrophic and complete failure earlier this week, officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said during a briefing Thursday, adding that widespread rolling blackouts may have saved the state from going completely dark

KEY FACTS

ERCOT which manages the state's electrical grid, started instituting rolling blackouts Sunday night after a massive snowstorm and record cold temperatures froze major power supplies, mainly coal and natural gas generators.

The blackouts at times meant more than 35% of Texans went without electricity, the primary source of heat in the region, during the record-breaking cold.

But that apparently was just enough to stop a total blackout, which Ercot CEO Bill Magness said Tuesday would have left almost the entire state of Texas without power for “an indeterminate amount of time”—possibly a month.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/02/18/texas-power-grid-was-seconds-or-minutes-away-from-complete-failure-leaving-whole-state-dark-ercot-says/?sh=20f68448843f