ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

[TwiceHorn 31311]

4 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

No disagreement about the whole political situation. I'm merely speaking as someone with a decade of experience in operations in the chemical industry. It's not energy, but they are substantially similar in the basic technologies they use to operate their plants. An event like this was always going to bring down a significant portion of our power supply. There is just no getting around it. There is still plenty of room for criticism with regards to the way we have structured it. We obviously never anticipated an event like this that would encompass the entire state.

In that sense, it's a lot like Trump and COVID..  The virus was gonna suck no matter what, and so was this.  The question becomes how much better could it have been if we didn't have these particular shitheads in charge.

[MoJames 8241]

6 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

No disagreement about the whole political situation. I'm merely speaking as someone with a decade of experience in operations in the chemical industry. It's not energy, but they are substantially similar in the basic technologies they use to operate their plants. An event like this was always going to bring down a significant portion of our power supply. There is just no getting around it. There is still plenty of room for criticism with regards to the way we have structured it. We obviously never anticipated an event like this that would encompass the entire state.

With you experience in you role over the past 10 years, do you feel there will be any substantial change?

Edited February 19, 2021 by MoJames

[4th&Five 41461]

 

[BearSchlong 8078]

I wouldn't say altruistically.  They've gotten some government money to reimburse their costs of development.  But from a purely economic standpoint, they'd probably be better off to direct their resources to another wildly profitable drug than making a relative pittance, if anything, on vaccine sales.
But they are putting short- or even long-term profit (arguably everything in pharma is long-term) to the side for more humane purposes.  They're advancing science.  Making themselves look heroic.
Hell, you can't even count on individual humans to be altruistic, but they still do the right thing fairly often.

They're banking goodwill and political capital. And created a covid vaccine industry. Surely this will be an annual thing, like the flu vaccine, formulation tweaked seasonally. Ongoing government contracts. 330mm doses/yr guaranteed for years. Calculated to compensate for the opportunity costs of setting aside focus on other projects.

I'm playing devils advocate, or maybe I'm just cynical, but the tradeoff for more regulation is a guaranteed minimum IRR.

[RDCanecutter 26309]

3 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Can't means won't.

[cactusflinthead 27595]

Goddammit!

This shit has got to fucking stop!

Argue about vertical half-assed money changing all you goddamn want.

People are dying while a one Jerry Jones gets fat stax.

This is the third time today.

This is fucking Lent and Fr. Jim and Danya and the lama. Be kind boyo

And I am in tears of rage.

RIGHT FUCKING HERE 

@trauma babe confirmed 300 moved and evacuated and

Dollars. Rex and the PUC

railroad commission. eric cot 

I damn well earned being emotional

Because if you didn't feel some in all this pandemic snowmaggeddon

You might already be dead

[MoJames 8241]

1 minute ago, BearSchlong said:

They're banking goodwill and political capital. And created a covid vaccine industry. Surely this will be an annual thing, like the flu vaccine, formulation tweaked seasonally. Ongoing government contracts. 330mm doses/yr guaranteed for years. Calculated to compensate for the opportunity costs of setting aside focus on other projects.

I'm playing devils advocate, or maybe I'm just cynical, but the tradeoff for more regulation is a guaranteed minimum IRR.

There will not be an annual Covid vaccination secondary to the fact Influenza is a very unique virus that has a much greater ability to mutate. Covid doesn't.

[cactusflinthead 27595]

Code 347

Completely Lost Due to Incompetence

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19096]

45 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

No disagreement about the whole political situation. I'm merely speaking as someone with a decade of experience in operations in the chemical industry. It's not energy, but they are substantially similar in the basic technologies they use to operate their plants. An event like this was always going to bring down a significant portion of our power supply. There is just no getting around it. There is still plenty of room for criticism with regards to the way we have structured it. We obviously never anticipated an event like this that would encompass the entire state.

I disagree.  If the PUC and RRC had set requirements to weatherize (this includes ensuring that oil and gas supply are uninterupted...if Alberta, CA can do it, Texas can do it), while we might have had a plant or two go down, it would not be 30-40 GW of expected power going offline.  There would have been some rolling brownouts/blackouts rather than the complete turn off for days that we saw.

And 2011 told us an event like this was possible.  And people like the PUC and ERCOT should be thinking in that 1 in 100 scenario where shit goes tits up.  

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

23 minutes ago, MoJames said:

With you experience in you role over the past 10 years, do you feel there will be any substantial change?

Depends on how you define substantial. There will be some engineering changes. Some of those will be beneficial, but a lot of them will be lip service to addressing the issues. The workforce is transitioning from predominantly Boomers to predominantly Millennials and Zoomers. At the same time the technology that runs plants (I'm running with the assumption that electrical plants use the same basic process technologies) is newer than the weather disruptions we have seen here. I'm part of the millennial workforce that is coming into play. We don't have any experience before this with dealing with something like this. The older boomer generation has never experienced  an event like this with the tech we are running as well.

Do I expect any real change? To do that we would have to completely rethink how our plants are operated. As the system stands now, it relies on an operator who has never experienced a potential problem reporting the potential problem. The problem has to then to ferried up the chain through a few steps to management who then looks at it and puts it in a list of other stuff that needs to be fixed. But the management, while very competent in the theoreticals of how things work, isn't really in tune with the actuals of how things work. So things that are actually important get put on the back burner and end up causing problems in the future.

They spend a lot of time getting their six sigma certificates, but that doesn't mean squat when it comes to a crisis. If they spent some time in operations before going into management six sigma would look pretty inefficient. 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

15 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I disagree.  If the PUC and RRC had set requirements to weatherize (this includes ensuring that oil and gas supply are uninterupted...if Alberta, CA can do it, Texas can do it), while we might have had a plant or two go down, it would not be 30-40 GW of expected power going offline.  There would have been some rolling brownouts/blackouts rather than the complete turn off for days that we saw.

And 2011 told us an event like this was possible.  And people like the PUC and ERCOT should be thinking in that 1 in 100 scenario where shit goes tits up.  

While I appreciate your insight on the broader perspective, you don't really seem to have much grasp on the actual implementation. To compare Alberta to anywhere in Texas only helps show how much of the problem is structural ingrained in the whole management philosophy.

[workswithseed 2037]

2 hours ago, MoJames said:

 

Also, I don't live within the backass energy situation in Texas, again I'm at 7400 feet in Colorado and have dealt with 2 foot of snow over the past week without one fucking problem.

 

I've gone without power since Monday here in Portland from a small snow storm that stayed for 2 days. 

[cactusflinthead 27595]

I might go so far as to tell of Joe Hill

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19096]

16 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

While I appreciate your insight on the broader perspective, you don't really seem to have much grasp on the actual implementation. To compare Alberta to anywhere in Texas only helps show how much of the problem is structural ingrained in the whole management philosophy.

Sorry, but I think a lot of this is unnecessary cutting of corners.  The technology obviously exists as there are cold weather outposts all over the world (Alberta and Alaska come to mind from an oil and gas perspective).  The truth is, these kind of events are going to be more frequent.  Think about just Houston.  How many massive floods has the region had, that was then capped by Harvey in 2017?  We had a massive cold front in 2011, and this one eclipsed that one.  

My stance is this shit is unacceptable, and needs to be addressed.  Your attitude isn't helpful, but is what I come to expect from Millenials.

[Bookman 4611]

I wonder how long it will be until we get another winter storm like this.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

How much experience do you have in operations? Get your ass down here during an event like this

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Sorry, but I think a lot of this is unnecessary cutting of corners.  The technology obviously exists as there are cold weather outposts all over the world (Alberta and Alaska come to mind from an oil and gas perspective).  The truth is, these kind of events are going to be more frequent.  Think about just Houston.  How many massive floods has the region had, that was then capped by Harvey in 2017?  We had a massive cold front in 2011, and this one eclipsed that one.  

My stance is this shit is unacceptable, and needs to be addressed.  Your attitude isn't helpful, but is what I come to expect from Millenials.

Have you ever spent any time actually trying to operate a plant in an extreme weather event like this? You clearly know how the market works, but unless you have any actual operating experience in a plant in conditions that it wasn't designed to operate in then you need to quit telling folks that this could have easily been avoided. 

[fakebusiness 129]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Makes you wonder what kind of safety maintenance has been deferred on the gas, coal, and nuclear plants. Hopefully safety is still regulated and enforced. 

They'll cut as many corners as they can get away with. The bottom line is all that matters. 

[4th&Five 41461]

32 minutes ago, Bookman said:

I wonder how long it will be until we get another winter storm like this.

I know we still won’t be prepared whenever it is. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

While I appreciate your insight on the broader perspective, you don't really seem to have much grasp on the actual implementation. To compare Alberta to anywhere in Texas only helps show how much of the problem is structural ingrained in the whole management philosophy.

Whole lot of platitudes and bullshit and I know more than you but not gonna reveal it from this guy. 
 

Just because you know how a plant operates doesn’t mean you know jack shit about how to provide energy to a state so fuck off with “there’s nothing that could have been done to prevent this” bullshit because it is complete crap.

[TwiceHorn 31311]

4 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

How much experience do you have in operations? Get your ass down here during an event like this

Have you ever spent any time actually trying to operate a plant in an extreme weather event like this? You clearly know how the market works, but unless you have any actual operating experience in a plant in conditions that it wasn't designed to operate in then you need to quit telling folks that this could have easily been avoided. 

I think we need to clarify something here.

Do you contend that power generators and related entities made a serious and concerted and intelligent effort to avoid this and failed because the task is nearly impossible?

Because I will grant you that that task is sufficiently difficult that complete avoidance is impossible.

But I don't believe any such effort was made.  It sounds pretty half ass.

That's not to say that individual operators half-assed their jobs, but I don't think management gave them the means and opportunity to do what needed to be done.  I think there was a lot of finger crossing and wishing for luck.

Edited February 19, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[BearSchlong 8078]

There will not be an annual Covid vaccination secondary to the fact Influenza is a very unique virus that has a much greater ability to mutate. Covid doesn't.

Ok, so maybe biannual. But the first or second vaccine certainly won't be the last. Plus its still way too early to predict long term immunity.

[TwiceHorn 31311]

It finally dawned on me that there is "technical fault" here, as well as "policy fault."  The two are intertwined at times, but not quite all the time. By technical fault, I mean the engineering, scientific problems that proximately caused this, as opposed to the policy decisions that caused this.

Some of the more technocratic people, like me, tend to focus a bit more on technical fault, while others are more focused on policy fault.  By education, I'm both, so they blur and I flop back and forth between the "regimes of fault."  The technical aspects fascinate me, though.

From a technical perspective, this was a ginormous problem that wasn't going to be solved anywhere close to perfectly no matter how good the policy decisions and policy framework.  To say that is not to absolve the policy makers and deciders.

Also, on a lighter note from that reddit thread linked elsewhere, captioned "A Short Story."

Edited February 19, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[MoJames 8241]

Ok, so maybe biannual. But the first or second vaccine certainly won't be the last. Plus its still way too early to predict long term immunity.

There are no biannual vaccinations, that isn't how our immune system works. It very well could be the last COVID vaccination in our lifetime. And it really isn't too early to predict with the amount of understanding we have of our immune system. Anyone peddling a story of brief immunity is looking for clicks.

[cactusflinthead 27595]

Bama Chick got it 5 hrs ago

So here's a new reason for rage

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by cactusflinthead

[Js1 85141]

16 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Bama Chick got it 5 hrs ago

So here's a new reason for rage

 

Yes they can. It’s literally who they are. Pander to the base and donors to set the house on fire and then put the fire out to get the credit and the headlines and the goodwill. 

[TwiceHorn 31311]

19 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Bama Chick got it 5 hrs ago

So here's a new reason for rage

 

And then there's this asshole.  https://house.texas.gov/news/press-releases/?id=7325

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19096]

5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

And then there's this asshole.  https://house.texas.gov/news/press-releases/?id=7325

What an idiot.  Shit, Texas needs better legislators. I bet all of us in this thread would be better than what Texas has now.

[SizzleChest 8275]

1 hour ago, MoJames said:

2 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

Ok, so maybe biannual. But the first or second vaccine certainly won't be the last. Plus its still way too early to predict long term immunity.

There are no biannual vaccinations, that isn't how our immune system works. It very well could be the last COVID vaccination in our lifetime. And it really isn't too early to predict with the amount of understanding we have of our immune system. Anyone peddling a story of brief immunity is looking for clicks.

Gottlieb was sharing some info about long term immunity not from antibody development or maintenance, but T-cell memory.  It's completely plausible that the vaccines instill this long term, but it hasn't been studied in humans yet.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19096]

14 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

And then there's this asshole.  https://house.texas.gov/news/press-releases/?id=7325

And I would like to talk more about this.  I do not see how the fuck this would be possible.  What a shitshow.  Should we lambast the guy with why this is a bad idea? Or is it too late for that?  Should that go to the committee or speaker to explain why this is a bad idea.

[TwiceHorn 31311]

5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

And I would like to talk more about this.  I do not see how the fuck this would be possible.  What a shitshow.  Should we lambast the guy with why this is a bad idea? Or is it too late for that?  Should that go to the committee or speaker to explain why this is a bad idea.

Well, the good news, such as it is, is that this didn't get anywhere a couple of years ago, apparently.and I'm not sure the bullshit wind power narrative is enough to carry it any further.

Edited February 19, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Goredho 17354]

17 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I still feel like people don't get that ERCOT fucked up in their projections, but isn't responsible for a lot of the fuckups.  They can't force power generators to do their jobs right, or natural gas producers, or wind farm operators, or pipeline companies.  About all they can do is send a sternly worded letter.

Isn't that the crux of the problem?  I don't know if regulation and enforcement of all the participants in what is the Texas energy grid is part of ERCOT's mission. If it is not, then there's a giant vacuum there that needs to be competently filled by ERCOT or something else.  If regulation and enforcement is part of ERCOT's mission, then it's a failure in that respect and needs a thorough overhaul.  A toothless regulatory body overseeing an economic sacred cow is no better than no regulatory body whatsoever.  Regulations mean nothing if there is no one with the power or will to enforce them.

I'm not sure I see much different between this situation, pharma bro jacking up HIV drug prices 5000%, the Boeing 737 Max disasters, etc...  Capitalism is great... until it's not.  And when it's not, it is usually because there is nothing ensuring the capitalists are responsible to something other than maximum profit.  People bitch about regulations, but regulations are there as a firewall against these types of disasters.  Corporations are caught cutting corners in ways that might lead to disaster before the disaster happens and thus the public does not have to suffer the disaster.

The pendulum has swung way too far in the capitalist's favor here, and needs to come back towards a median where they can still do business, but the general public doesn't have to risk hypothermia so that energy investors can have the maximum possible profit.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Goredho

[jimmyjazz 45579]

It seems to me that too many parties are trying to obfuscate in order to avoid a reasonable assessment of blame.  Obviously, no one single thing went wrong, but political animals being what they are makes it exceptionally difficult to get to the bottom of things.

I'd like to see some data.  Say, generation in MW at midnight a week prior to the shutdown (2/8), and the same a day prior (2/14) and the day of (2/15), broken out into sources (wind, geothermal, coal, gas, nuclear, "other").  Drill down from there as to the "whys" (frozen wellheads, low pipe flow, poor plant winterization, turbine shutdowns due to ice on blades, etc.)   As it stands now I mostly see the people being lied to, which not only makes it impossible for Joe Blow to wrap his head around the problem writ large, but it also leads to apathy (which is the goal).

I am in the camp that a "utility" needs to be designed for the people first, not the shareholders.  Of course, everything comes at a cost, but if my electric bill goes up 10% and this never happens again, I'm good with that.  The problem is that it could be 25% or 50% or more, which makes it even a bigger burden for a large faction of society.  I'd still like to see the numbers.

 

[TwiceHorn 31311]

39 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Isn't that the crux of the problem?  I don't know if regulation and enforcement of all the participants in what is the Texas energy grid is part of ERCOT's mission. If it is not, then there's a giant vacuum there that needs to be competently filled by ERCOT or something else.  If regulation and enforcement is part of ERCOT's mission, then it's a failure in that respect and needs a thorough overhaul.  A toothless regulatory body overseeing an economic sacred cow is no better than no regulatory body whatsoever.  Regulations mean nothing if there is no one with the power or will to enforce them.

I'm not sure I see much different between this situation, pharma bro jacking up HIV drug prices 5000%, the Boeing 737 Max disasters, etc...  Capitalism is great... until it's not.  And when it's not, it is usually because there is nothing ensuring the capitalists are responsible to something other than maximum profit.  People bitch about regulations, but regulations are there as a firewall against these types of disasters.  Corporations are caught cutting corners in ways that might lead to disaster before the disaster happens and thus the public does not have to suffer the disaster.

The pendulum has swung way too far in the capitalist's favor here, and needs to come back towards a median where they can still do business, but the general public doesn't have to risk hypothermia so that energy investors can have the maximum possible profit.

Yeah, I don't know whether ERCOT should be empowered to do these things or the governor, or what I think it is, the lege.

ERCOT presumably has the expertise and can move fastest, but is the least accountable.  Governor lacks expertise, can move fast, and is accountable.  Lege lacks expertise, moves slow, and is accountable.

Totally agree with your last paragraph.

[Michael Knight 12902]

6 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

 

Eat the rich and burn their corpses for warmth

[sidis 9759]

The legislature is going to save us? This guy?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19096]

5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I don't know whether ERCOT should be empowered to do these things or the governor, or what I think it is, the lege.

ERCOT presumably has the expertise and can move fastest, but is the least accountable.  Governor lacks expertise, can move fast, and is accountable.  Lege lacks expertise, moves slow, and is accountable.

Totally agree with your last paragraph.

Maybe make the PUC like the Railroad Commission (though I would argue that some of our current RRC members lack expertise (cough Wayne Christian cough)), where it is elected and held accountable by the people (That is what I assume you mean by accountable).  

[Js1 85141]

5 minutes ago, sidis said:

The legislature is going to save us? This guy?

He's been tasked with making sure brown and black people can't vote after 2022.  He's busy. 

[GopherRock 1765]

12 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Dallas' average low in February is 32.  Take Des Moines down to -17 and see how they do.  The point being that there are going to be some fuckups even if you do try to do it right when the conditions are so far out of the norm.  Which is not to say that anyone in Texas tried to do it right.  Or that the regulatory system encouraged them to do it right.

 

The Upper Midwest spent extensive time in the -20s and -30s last week, and there were no wholesale energy outages. 

[TwiceHorn 31311]

18 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Maybe make the PUC like the Railroad Commission (though I would argue that some of our current RRC members lack expertise (cough Wayne Christian cough)), where it is elected and held accountable by the people (That is what I assume you mean by accountable).  

Yes.  I forgot about PUC in there.  

[TwiceHorn 31311]

11 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

The Upper Midwest spent extensive time in the -20s and -30s last week, and there were no wholesale energy outages. 

Nevertheless, from a purely technical standpoint, these comparisons of other states and their grids is unfair unless comparing at "black swan" departures from "normal."

[BearSchlong 8078]

3 hours ago, MoJames said:

4 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

Ok, so maybe biannual. But the first or second vaccine certainly won't be the last. Plus its still way too early to predict long term immunity.

There are no biannual vaccinations, that isn't how our immune system works. It very well could be the last COVID vaccination in our lifetime. And it really isn't too early to predict with the amount of understanding we have of our immune system. Anyone peddling a story of brief immunity is looking for clicks.

I seriously hope you're right.

[gmr548 16529]

Can you elaborate on this?  I'm an engineer, so I have some basic understanding of power generation and transmission and AC, but no realistic understanding of these issues.

I thought you were a lawyer this whole time. Huh.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Nevertheless, from a purely technical standpoint, these comparisons of other states and their grids is unfair unless comparing at "black swan" departures from "normal."

Most of the country has more issues in summer with peak usage. After the massive Northeast blackout almost 2 decades ago, changes were made. Some are still ongoing. Nobody said infrastructure improvements move fast..  Texas should have made changes after 2011. This is strike 2, not 1.  Fool me once. Shame on you. Fool me twice. Can't get fooled again. 

But yall aren't going to try to fix this anymore than you try to take flood mitigation measures in Houston. Just gonna let it happen again and stick your hands out again. With a warmer arctic, you are going to start to see this more often,, so you should be prepared for it.  Texas wasn't always like this.  Galveston learned from 1900.  They realized hurricanes can be really fucking bad, so they raised the whole town and built a seawall.  It was time for Texas to build a grid seawall in 2011.  Its past time now. Instead, its all finger pointing and excuses. 

[gmr548 16529]

There will not be an annual Covid vaccination secondary to the fact Influenza is a very unique virus that has a much greater ability to mutate. Covid doesn't.

The second part of your post seems directly contradictory to reality. When we look for mutations, we find them. We just essentially haven’t been looking.

I doubt the vaccine you get this year will be the last COVID vaccine you get. Or at least not the only one developed. Maybe not annual, but probably not the last. The chance for missions to develop in countries that aren’t going to achieve mass vaccination for years is going to remain out there. Even if vaccinations get the virus under control in this country, this year.

[MoJames 8241]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

The second part of your post seems directly contradictory to reality. When we look for mutations, we find them. We just essentially haven’t been looking.

I doubt the vaccine you get this year will be the last COVID vaccine you get. Or at least not the only one developed. Maybe not annual, but probably not the last. The chance for missions to develop in countries that aren’t going to achieve mass vaccination for years is going to remain out there. Even if vaccinations get the virus under control in this country, this year.

Corona doesn't mutate as freely an quickly as Influenza*

You also need to realize that with or without vaccinations all populations around the globe will reach herd immunity.

[BearSchlong 8078]

I didn't mean to infect this thread with vaccination talk, I was only refuting my friend TwiceHorn's comment about capitalists behaving altruistically.

[Dahobbs 17454]

20 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I thought you were a lawyer this whole time. Huh.

He is both. He lives in that in between world known as patent law. Or, at least that has been my understanding. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

He is both. He lives in that in between world known as patent law. Or, at least that has been my understanding. 

He said engineer though. Are you saying he doesn't drive trains?

[gmr548 16529]

Corona doesn't mutate as freely an quickly as Influenza*
You also need to realize that with or without vaccinations all populations around the globe will reach herd immunity.

The b1351 variant is a pretty significant mutation that has shown ability to escape existing vaccines to varying extents. It is clearly capable of changing significantly and fast enough to matter. It’s not like we’re back to square one - the MRNAs are still very good and J&J was solid in cutting the more severe outcomes - but to just be willfully dismissive of that is not a credible take.

Of course that will happen, but it takes a long time, costs a lot of unnecessary lives, severe illnesses, and healthcare resources. It also affords the virus the opportunity to mutate further to the point that it has a really significant impact on efficacy of existing vaccines. It’s not a desirable outcome, because it extends the timeline and toll of this a long way out, even if it’s the most likely course.