ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

[JimmyJames 12271]

The republicans won’t fix the problem themselves because they created it and because before you can fix a problem you first have to acknowledge the full extent of it. Just look at the statements by Perry, Abbott, Danielle Patrick and the flight by Cancun Cruz. They will NEVER acknowledge how bad they all fucked up so the problem will NEVER get fixed until republicans no longer control this state. 

[jimmyjazz 45589]

It's a little more simple than that.  Republicans care about nobody but themselves -- their own person.  That's it.  Fuck everyone else, even the Republican voters.  They are pathological.

[elfenix 34190]

4 hours ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

I drive a Dodge Stratus! What kind of fallacy is that? The US Navy could decide to power Ford Class carriers via internal combustion engines, but that has nothing to do with the reliability and TX power grid.

I may be reading that EIA chart incorrectly, but the notes at the bottom I interpret to say it’s normalized and time adjusted for a whole summer month. That’s the best data I could find looking through EIA and NERC sources for any measure of “reliability” or “downtime”.

But, “shit capacity factor” leads to the larger talking point that started this conversation the market has little to no incentive for power generators to offer reliability. Wind and solar are intermittent and require backup via some sort of storage or additional peaking capacity. Wind and solar investors don’t see that externality they pass it on to the utility customers, us. Cost effective storage at the levels were talking for ERCOT ~20GW or more are years down the road. NG plants are already failing to cover peak demand in Texas and Cali as we’ve seen, but we just keep building more wind turbines expanding their baseline which will just exacerbate the problem on overcast and still summer days/nights.

 

well, no, this started because you wanted to beat some drum about reliable and cheap electricity by dropping an unsigned blog post hosted by a well known climate denier that's basically a hit piece on wind and solar when those two things combined performed in line with expectations last week and the so-called reliable generation shit the bed.  and not just in texas - the same thing happened in iowa. as texas has the only energy-only market in the US, what are we gonna blame 50% of gas generation in iowa going offline on?

aynway, we better start building the storage now, then.  probably should have started 45 years ago when exxon's own scientists told them they were fucking the planet up.  or 53 years ago when API hired stanford to confirm that, indeed, they were fucking the planet up.  or 62 years ago when edward teller dropped the bomb on them that, indeed, they were fucking the planet up.  if we had any clue how to build nuclear we should probably start building those but i think it's pretty well demonstrated that we don't. regardless we need far more money chasing solutions to power problems for the 21st and 22nd century and far less money propping up 19th century fossil fuels.

but, hey, what's the old adage about trees and the best time to plant them?

Edited February 21, 2021 by elfenix

[cactusflinthead 27595]

 

[David Dennison 18672]

So this is making the rounds in the MAGAverse. SIAP.

From a friend that lives in Texas and knows what they are up against!
"Angry isn’t a good enough word for the deaths and destruction cause by Biden and his administration.
Joe Biden’s Dept. of Energy blocked Texas from increasing power ahead of killer storm.
Acting Energy Secretary David Huizenga did not waive environmental restrictions to allow for maximum energy output in Texas, instead ordering ERCOT to utilize all resources in order to stay within acceptable emissions standards – including purchasing energy from outside the state.
The EO shows the Biden administration basically ordered ERCOT to throttle its energy output by forcing it to comply with environmental green energy standards, while knowing full well Texans could freeze to death in their homes with zero electricity as temperatures plunged into single digits.
Moreover, the order instructed an “incremental amount of restricted capacity” to be sold to ERCOT at “a price no lower than $1,500/MWh,” an increase of over 6,000 percent over February 2020 prices of $18.20.
On Wednesday, the Dallas Business Journal reported, “Electricity on the Texas grid has averaged about $1,137.33 per megawatt hour so far in February, up from $18.20 per megawatt hour in February 2020, according to data from the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. That’s a jump of more than 6,000 percent.”
Days later, the Public Utility Commission of Texas set prices at $9,000/MWh.
In a nutshell- what could have been avoided, wasn't, and millions of people have suffered because of the Biden administration refusing to allow more energy to be used in order to comply with their "green energy" agenda.
Secondly, Texans have had their Electricity bills increase by HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS this past week, because the Biden administration forced ERCOT to increase its rates.
There's people here in Texas with $10,000 Electricity bills after this past week.
This entire crises was because of FAILED leadership, and Texans have paid the price for it with their lives, and their homes.
Thank a Democrat!"

[tx 3 putt 76443]

yes, ive seen that floating around fb. further proof maga (as a whole), the dumbest people to walk the planet 

[Biff Tannen 45509]

13 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So this is making the rounds in the MAGAverse. SIAP.

From a friend that lives in Texas and knows what they are up against!
"Angry isn’t a good enough word for the deaths and destruction cause by Biden and his administration.
Joe Biden’s Dept. of Energy blocked Texas from increasing power ahead of killer storm.
Acting Energy Secretary David Huizenga did not waive environmental restrictions to allow for maximum energy output in Texas, instead ordering ERCOT to utilize all resources in order to stay within acceptable emissions standards – including purchasing energy from outside the state.
The EO shows the Biden administration basically ordered ERCOT to throttle its energy output by forcing it to comply with environmental green energy standards, while knowing full well Texans could freeze to death in their homes with zero electricity as temperatures plunged into single digits.
Moreover, the order instructed an “incremental amount of restricted capacity” to be sold to ERCOT at “a price no lower than $1,500/MWh,” an increase of over 6,000 percent over February 2020 prices of $18.20.
On Wednesday, the Dallas Business Journal reported, “Electricity on the Texas grid has averaged about $1,137.33 per megawatt hour so far in February, up from $18.20 per megawatt hour in February 2020, according to data from the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. That’s a jump of more than 6,000 percent.”
Days later, the Public Utility Commission of Texas set prices at $9,000/MWh.
In a nutshell- what could have been avoided, wasn't, and millions of people have suffered because of the Biden administration refusing to allow more energy to be used in order to comply with their "green energy" agenda.
Secondly, Texans have had their Electricity bills increase by HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS this past week, because the Biden administration forced ERCOT to increase its rates.
There's people here in Texas with $10,000 Electricity bills after this past week.
This entire crises was because of FAILED leadership, and Texans have paid the price for it with their lives, and their homes.
Thank a Democrat!"

Sweet.  Fucking.  Christ.

[Brisketexan 104725]

yes, ive seen that floating around fb. further proof maga (as a whole), the dumbest people to walk the planet 

The Singularity of Stupidity, if it had eyes, would gaze upon the MAGAts and shake its head, muttering “at least I’m not THAT stupid.”

FYI, the feds waived the emission rule in this crisis.

FYI again, the $9k price of electricity was set not by the feds, but by the PUC of Texas, which has been comprised of Republican appointees for a generation. The feds didn’t “force ERCOT to increase its rates” - instead, the Texas executive branch set that high rate, all on its own, in order to serve as a “market signal.”

These fucking people surpass infinite stupidity.

[gmr548 16531]

So this is making the rounds in the MAGAverse. SIAP.
From a friend that lives in Texas and knows what they are up against!
"Angry isn’t a good enough word for the deaths and destruction cause by Biden and his administration.
Joe Biden’s Dept. of Energy blocked Texas from increasing power ahead of killer storm.
Acting Energy Secretary David Huizenga did not waive environmental restrictions to allow for maximum energy output in Texas, instead ordering ERCOT to utilize all resources in order to stay within acceptable emissions standards – including purchasing energy from outside the state.
The EO shows the Biden administration basically ordered ERCOT to throttle its energy output by forcing it to comply with environmental green energy standards, while knowing full well Texans could freeze to death in their homes with zero electricity as temperatures plunged into single digits.
Moreover, the order instructed an “incremental amount of restricted capacity” to be sold to ERCOT at “a price no lower than $1,500/MWh,” an increase of over 6,000 percent over February 2020 prices of $18.20.
On Wednesday, the Dallas Business Journal reported, “Electricity on the Texas grid has averaged about $1,137.33 per megawatt hour so far in February, up from $18.20 per megawatt hour in February 2020, according to data from the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. That’s a jump of more than 6,000 percent.”
Days later, the Public Utility Commission of Texas set prices at $9,000/MWh.
In a nutshell- what could have been avoided, wasn't, and millions of people have suffered because of the Biden administration refusing to allow more energy to be used in order to comply with their "green energy" agenda.
Secondly, Texans have had their Electricity bills increase by HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS this past week, because the Biden administration forced ERCOT to increase its rates.
There's people here in Texas with $10,000 Electricity bills after this past week.
This entire crises was because of FAILED leadership, and Texans have paid the price for it with their lives, and their homes.
Thank a Democrat!"

It’ll work. 50+ percent of Texas voters will believe that.

[TwiceHorn 31313]

16 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

yes, ive seen that floating around fb. further proof maga (as a whole), the dumbest people to walk the planet 

Well, truth be told about that, and a whole lot of other things, the average American has zero ability to evaluate the truth of that.

But what's going to happen to some is that they will google something and not being very smart, see it repeated on a dozen or so right-wing sites, all citing the same non-existent source, none of which include MSM or any actually credible or factual source.  And they will thus conclude that it is true.

Google "department of energy blocked Texas."

There is only one link in that result on DDG that is factual and doesn't just repeat the BS.  It is KHOU, which may or may not qualify as librul fehg media.  It does include this tidbit, though.  https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2021/02/f82/DOE 202(c) Emergency Order - ERCOT 02.14.2021.pdf

But I don't think more than about half of Americans of either political persuasion are capable of sussing that out.  It's just that some dumbfucks will believe it and others won't.

Edited February 21, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Brisketexan 104725]

It’ll work. 50+ percent of Texas voters will believe that.

This is also correct.

Imagine the stupidest course of action. Then pace a stone cold lock bet that the majority of Texans will follow it.

[cactusflinthead 27595]

 

[Bullneck 19026]

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27595]

 

[washparkhorn 9935]

32 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Making the rounds in the MAGAverse. 

[delusional magat sewage]

 

[Asithappens 974]

Some of you whiners need to get your priorities straight.

Was it an "inconvenience" that power went out? Sure. Was it expensive that frozen pipes burst and caused property damage? Of course. Was it sad and tragic that some people actually froze to death in their own homes? Yes, yes it was.

But keep your eyes on the prize, people. How much quality time was instead spent on bathroom bills and anti-gay/trans legislative activity? Geesh. It's like some of you aren't even evangelical christians. God knows who you are. 

Freezing to death vs. eternal salvation. Take your pick. It's your choice.  /s

Edited February 21, 2021 by Asithappens

[Bama Chick 28596]

TEN YEARS???? TO PAY FOR A WEEK’S WORTH OF ELECTRICITY????

Where will “Electric Bill Loan Forgiveness” fit in the next relief package?

Jesus H. Christ

[Asithappens 974]

Just now, Bama Chick said:

TEN YEARS???? TO PAY FOR A WEEK’S WORTH OF ELECTRICITY????

Where will “Electric Bill Loan Forgiveness” fit in the next relief package?

Jesus H. Christ

That ol' free market sho ain't free....

[TwiceHorn 31313]

26 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

TEN YEARS???? TO PAY FOR A WEEK’S WORTH OF ELECTRICITY????

Where will “Electric Bill Loan Forgiveness” fit in the next relief package?

Jesus H. Christ

I do tend to think that means spread CPSE's costs over 10 years, rather than its customers.

[washparkhorn 9935]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

There is only one link in that result on DDG that is factual and doesn't just repeat the BS.  It is KHOU, which may or may not qualify as librul fehg media.  It does include this tidbit, though.  https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2021/02/f82/DOE 202(c) Emergency Order - ERCOT 02.14.2021.pdf

I read the Order. In a nutshell - "Full speed ahead with production of energy, ERCOT.  Monitor and report mercury and other toxic emissions when ramping up production."

____________________

It appears they are already federally regulated, so I don't understand the statement: "we want to keep the fed regulators out."  I must be missing something. 

 

[Ted Lange 16055]

59 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

TEN YEARS???? TO PAY FOR A WEEK’S WORTH OF ELECTRICITY????

Where will “Electric Bill Loan Forgiveness” fit in the next relief package?

Jesus H. Christ

TEXAS GOP Slayed the Power Lenders!
-Swam

[tx 3 putt 76443]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

So this is making the rounds in the MAGAverse. SIAP.

From a friend that lives in Texas and knows what they are up against!
"Angry isn’t a good enough word for the deaths and destruction cause by Biden and his administration.
Joe Biden’s Dept. of Energy blocked Texas from increasing power ahead of killer storm.
Acting Energy Secretary David Huizenga did not waive environmental restrictions to allow for maximum energy output in Texas, instead ordering ERCOT to utilize all resources in order to stay within acceptable emissions standards – including purchasing energy from outside the state.
The EO shows the Biden administration basically ordered ERCOT to throttle its energy output by forcing it to comply with environmental green energy standards, while knowing full well Texans could freeze to death in their homes with zero electricity as temperatures plunged into single digits.
Moreover, the order instructed an “incremental amount of restricted capacity” to be sold to ERCOT at “a price no lower than $1,500/MWh,” an increase of over 6,000 percent over February 2020 prices of $18.20.
On Wednesday, the Dallas Business Journal reported, “Electricity on the Texas grid has averaged about $1,137.33 per megawatt hour so far in February, up from $18.20 per megawatt hour in February 2020, according to data from the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. That’s a jump of more than 6,000 percent.”
Days later, the Public Utility Commission of Texas set prices at $9,000/MWh.
In a nutshell- what could have been avoided, wasn't, and millions of people have suffered because of the Biden administration refusing to allow more energy to be used in order to comply with their "green energy" agenda.
Secondly, Texans have had their Electricity bills increase by HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS this past week, because the Biden administration forced ERCOT to increase its rates.
There's people here in Texas with $10,000 Electricity bills after this past week.
This entire crises was because of FAILED leadership, and Texans have paid the price for it with their lives, and their homes.
Thank a Democrat!"

 

even better, i have maga co workers still holing on to the lie that failed wind turbines caused this entire outage. they're arguing with people all over fb about it. 

[staboner 4959]

8 hours ago, immamac said:

This is funny, but completely wrong on how a smart grid would/can work. 

A smart grid would have limited capacity to each meter instantaneous and would have kept everyone from rolling blackouts or blackouts at all, since the limitation comes not from closing an entire circuit, but from the meter limiting how much your home circuit can draw from the grid. 

The technology has existed for the better part of a decade and is not expensive. 

most definitely not that expensive and arguably around for much longer than a decade. Utilities were one of the first smart city / industrial IoT users actually, both water and elec. 

<insert rantings of technology analyst here>

the technology is not the issue here dude. The issue is one can't get rich off of a well regulated utility market that promotes conservation, reliability and service. Duh. Its america, America

The issue to solve this is simple honestly. Its a public utility that is rewarded by conservation, reliability and service. The reason its not working now is the utilities make money by - looks behind door number 3 - selling more of their product. Sure there are pentalties for bad reliability but not enough to flip the switch more towards investing here. 

You must remove this to get there. The smart grid deployed in much of the US to date (whether smart meters or grid automation) mainly comes from labor cost savings. Some from power quality and some from reliability (intelligent switching), but most from not having to pay larry the line worked or marlon the meter reader.

<end rant>

stay warm homies

[tantric superman 4667]

Yeah, that complete misrepresentation of the 202-21-1 Energy Dept. Order is just a lift from InfoWars, which also mischaracterizes a Dallas Business Journal article, blaming all the rate bumps on Biden.  I made a polite correction to the disinformation to my one "cut and paste" MAGA buddy on facebook earlier today. 

 

[Brisketexan 104725]

I read the Order. In a nutshell - "Full speed ahead with production of energy, ERCOT.  Monitor and report mercury and other toxic emissions when ramping up production."
____________________
It appears they are already federally regulated, so I don't understand the statement: "we want to keep the fed regulators out."  I must be missing something. 
 

It’s a limited, single issue type of regulation that applies to generators: they have to follow the Clean Air Act and regulations relating to it. Just like generators, drillers, and Burger King have to follow OSHA regs. So, the generators are regulated as pollution emitters like other businesses are. And this order lifted the limits on those.

[Eastwood 4394]

I do tend to think that means spread CPSE's costs over 10 years, rather than its customers.

Correct. CPS Energy is owned by the City of San Antonio and they are looking to eat the cost over 10 or more years. While this does come out of the tax payers pocket one way or another, there are tourism taxes, bonds, etc. that better assist the city in eating the costs. The privately owned companies, on the other hand... That's going to be a nightmare of litigation if the State doesn't step in.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

and not just in texas - the same thing happened in iowa. as texas has the only energy-only market in the US, what are we gonna blame 50% of gas generation in iowa going offline on?

Nice ad hominem. You have another source for that info? EIA doesn’t show that at all the evening of the 16th. NG generation actually went up.




Lol. In a one week period MISO saw wind energy go from 10GW to under 1 back to 15GW and fossil fuels were there to fill the demand every minute.

SWPP is even more telling.


That’s the argument from the O&G industry, carbon generators, and their mouth pieces. You can’t incentivize unreliable energy then be surprised that the market levers don’t have thermal energy ready to back you up. I absolutely may have blinders on or drank the koolaid, but I’ve yet to see a logically laid out rebuttal to the path we’re on.

aynway, we better start building the storage now, then.  probably should have started 45 years ago when exxon's own scientists told them they were fucking the planet up.  or 53 years ago when API hired stanford to confirm that, indeed, they were fucking the planet up.  or 62 years ago when edward teller dropped the bomb on them that, indeed, they were fucking the planet up.  if we had any clue how to build nuclear we should probably start building those but i think it's pretty well demonstrated that we don't. regardless we need far more money chasing solutions to power problems for the 21st and 22nd century and far less money propping up 19th century fossil fuels.
but, hey, what's the old adage about trees and the best time to plant them?

More unrelated ad hominem. France has given the western world the solution, and I find it maddening we aren’t going along. Agree, let’s start planting NOW, but rather than tweaking the market and incentivizing storage tech, and reviewing where we are in 5yrs, we need to be going full speed ahead building even old tech proven reactors with worse EnergyROI than new designs. Build and build until they’re 70% of the power supply or more. Storage or hydro at 10% for diversity and the rest mix of fossil fuels until wind and solar can pick up the baseline. If we’re scraping 5 year old reactors in 2030 cause storage has caught up and we have renewable TWs to spare, so be it, but I have an unsettling feeling will be right back here, talking what industry deserves incentives and tax credits and subsidies to make the market work the way we want. And which admins’ policies failed.

Almost 50 years ago Messmer said, “In France, we don’t have oil, but we have ideas.” It worked.

[washparkhorn 9935]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, the generators are regulated as pollution emitters like other businesses are. And this order lifted the limits on those.

Agree. Delusion reigns in trumper world. The order lifting limits on toxic pollution by generators is somehow a federal order preventing energy production. 

The right to say 2+2=4 (an objective truth) is freedom. In trump world, objective truth is a thoughtcrime.

 

[David Dennison 18672]

40 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

Nice ad hominem. You have another source for that info? EIA doesn’t show that at all the evening of the 16th. NG generation actually went up.




Lol. In a one week period MISO saw wind energy go from 10GW to under 1 back to 15GW and fossil fuels were there to fill the demand every minute.

SWPP is even more telling.


That’s the argument from the O&G industry, carbon generators, and their mouth pieces. You can’t incentivize unreliable energy then be surprised that the market levers don’t have thermal energy ready to back you up. I absolutely may have blinders on or drank the koolaid, but I’ve yet to see a logically laid out rebuttal to the path we’re on.



More unrelated ad hominem. France has given the western world the solution, and I find it maddening we aren’t going along. Agree, let’s start planting NOW, but rather than tweaking the market and incentivizing storage tech, and reviewing where we are in 5yrs, we need to be going full speed ahead building even old tech proven reactors with worse EnergyROI than new designs. Build and build until they’re 70% of the power supply or more. Storage or hydro at 10% for diversity and the rest mix of fossil fuels until wind and solar can pick up the baseline. If we’re scraping 5 year old reactors in 2030 cause storage has caught up and we have renewable TWs to spare, so be it, but I have an unsettling feeling will be right back here, talking what industry deserves incentives and tax credits and subsidies to make the market work the way we want. And which admins’ policies failed.

Almost 50 years ago Messmer said, “In France, we don’t have oil, but we have ideas.” It worked.

 

What does France do with its nuclear waste?

[Llano Estacado 1257]

What does France do with its nuclear waste?

No idea, I’d have to do some internet research.

Even the oldest spent materials will still be cooling for another 50+ years. I assume they have some cavern/subterranean fix for long term. They’re French though, so rest assured they’re following Atomic Energy Agency, international, and other industry best practices. (Ugh, I hate that turn of phrase)

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

TEXAS GOP Slayed the Power Lenders!
-Swam

Nothing will change until the Texas GOP and its criminal friends are finally voted out of office and this dark 25 year stain on our state, cascading it into ruin culminating in last week,  while still remembered, will at least be in tha past.

Edited February 22, 2021 by JimmyJames

[Ghost of LL 15495]

Somebody's going to eat a shit sandwich.  There are three options:

1) The ratepayers, who used the electricity (and in particular, the ratepayers who signed up for variable-rate plans tied to the wholesale price of electricity);

2) The taxpayers, who are going to be on the hook if the State decides to forgive (i.e., pay) some of the bills incurred by the ratepayers; or

3) The power generators, who didn't winterize their facilities notwithstanding the 2011 recommendations from the State that they do so.

It seems to me that the best public policy would be to make the power generators take the biggest bite of this shit sandwich.  But I'm not sure that is constitutionally feasible.  And I'm damned sure as shit it's not politically feasible with a Republican-led state government.

[TwiceHorn 31313]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

I read the Order. In a nutshell - "Full speed ahead with production of energy, ERCOT.  Monitor and report mercury and other toxic emissions when ramping up production."

____________________

It appears they are already federally regulated, so I don't understand the statement: "we want to keep the fed regulators out."  I must be missing something. 

 

Good point.  Although, I suppose it's some form of price regulation they are avoiding by not buying or selling in intterstate commerce.

And if I had to guess further, it might be price paid for NG or other fuel to our precious OG industry.

I recall at one point Northeasterners were paying less per MCF than we were.  Haven't heard that gripe in a couple of decades.

[SizzleChest 8275]

32 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Somebody's going to eat a shit sandwich.  There are three options:

1) The ratepayers, who used the electricity (and in particular, the ratepayers who signed up for variable-rate plans tied to the wholesale price of electricity);

2) The taxpayers, who are going to be on the hook if the State decides to forgive (i.e., pay) some of the bills incurred by the ratepayers; or

3) The power generators, who didn't winterize their facilities notwithstanding the 2011 recommendations from the State that they do so.

It seems to me that the best public policy would be to make the power generators take the biggest bite of this shit sandwich.  But I'm not sure that is constitutionally feasible.  And I'm damned sure as shit it's not politically feasible with a Republican-led state government.

On #1, I understand there will be some federal relief.  Not sure how much or how it will be administered.

[Dahobbs 17454]

2 hours ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

Nice ad hominem. You have another source for that info? EIA doesn’t show that at all the evening of the 16th. NG generation actually went up.




Lol. In a one week period MISO saw wind energy go from 10GW to under 1 back to 15GW and fossil fuels were there to fill the demand every minute.

SWPP is even more telling.


That’s the argument from the O&G industry, carbon generators, and their mouth pieces. You can’t incentivize unreliable energy then be surprised that the market levers don’t have thermal energy ready to back you up. I absolutely may have blinders on or drank the koolaid, but I’ve yet to see a logically laid out rebuttal to the path we’re on.



More unrelated ad hominem. France has given the western world the solution, and I find it maddening we aren’t going along. Agree, let’s start planting NOW, but rather than tweaking the market and incentivizing storage tech, and reviewing where we are in 5yrs, we need to be going full speed ahead building even old tech proven reactors with worse EnergyROI than new designs. Build and build until they’re 70% of the power supply or more. Storage or hydro at 10% for diversity and the rest mix of fossil fuels until wind and solar can pick up the baseline. If we’re scraping 5 year old reactors in 2030 cause storage has caught up and we have renewable TWs to spare, so be it, but I have an unsettling feeling will be right back here, talking what industry deserves incentives and tax credits and subsidies to make the market work the way we want. And which admins’ policies failed.

Almost 50 years ago Messmer said, “In France, we don’t have oil, but we have ideas.” It worked.

 

You don't have any idea what ad hominem means, do you?

[ndawg 1242]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You don't have any idea what ad hominem means, do you?

Are you going to discount his argument simply because he doesn't know what "ad hominem" means? Sounds like an ad ho.... oaawwfuggit.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20345]

Holy fuck. Dave Lieber of the Dallas Morning News EVISCERATES Republican leadership, ERCOT, and the PUC.  


 

Quote

Now you hear it everywhere in this state. People are talking and understanding what our leaders’ laissez faire disregard for oversight has done to us. Those beloved words “free market” have left us cold, without water, in the dark. The energy capital of America is a laughingstock, and deservedly so.

Who knew that our own leaders could destroy us?

The enemy is within. It’s not California values. It’s not the federal government. It sure isn’t windmills  ....
 

Quote

Blame, of course, ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, because if you’re going to pay your chief executive Bill Magness an annual compensation of $883,000 to run the state grid, he better be the Jackie Robinson of the electricity world. And if you believe his latest story about how we were “seconds” from a full-scale blackout, I have a few days of an unused Ted Cruz vacation package I’m happy to sell you. Magness waited until the fourth day to bring this up.

Blame the people who work for Magness, of which 20 earned more than $200,000 a year with seven getting above $300,000, two earning over $400,000 and one making $500,000, according to nonprofit ERCOT’s 2018 federal tax filing. If you make that much to keep the lights on and fail, how can you sleep at night?

 

and so on and so forth ...


https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2021/02/19/no-surprise-our-electricity-system-is-the-laughingstock-of-the-us-only-customers-cared-until-now/


 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[Llano Estacado 1257]

You don't have any idea what ad hominem means, do you?

Quite the contrary. I think it is Latin for “we don’t rent pigs” or something.

What does Judith Curry’s belief or disbelief in climate change have to do the merit of her (or a 3rd party on her site, I’m not even sure) analysis of last week’s grid failure?

What does Exxon’s or API’s understanding of anthropomorphic climate change have to do with balance of sources for power generation in 2021?

[Dahobbs 17454]

33 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

Quite the contrary. I think it is Latin for “we don’t rent pigs” or something.

What does Judith Curry’s belief or disbelief in climate change have to do the merit of her (or a 3rd party on her site, I’m not even sure) analysis of last week’s grid failure?

What does Exxon’s or API’s understanding of anthropomorphic climate change have to do with balance of sources for power generation in 2021?

 

Well, when their argument is that renewable energy, one of the chief ways we can battle climate change, is at fault, then I'd say it goes to credibility and bias. Really though, I was just making a snarky comment because I was very confused by your continued insistence that anything he said constituted an ad hominem attack. At first I thought I was somehow missing the insults in his post. And then I realized you had no idea what that term actually meant. 

As to the rest of your post, I suppose there is probably some merit to the idea that investment in renewable energy resulted in less investment in existing thermal plants. Renewable energy is simply cheaper than thermal energy, even if you exclude subsidies (both for renewables and for fossil fuels). But, and this is the part you and that analysis miss, even if the money weren't spent on renewable power, it would not have been spent on winterization of existing plants. The companies invested in resources that gave them a return on investment. Building new power plants, whether thermal or renewable, does that. Winterizing existing power plants does not. That is why prior plants weren't winterized. And that is why the new wind mills weren't winterized. Winterization is just a cost sink for those companies. It doesn't generate income in the market Texas created.

P.S. Have some neg back good sir. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Dahobbs

[Dahobbs 17454]

37 minutes ago, ndawg said:

Are you going to discount his argument simply because he doesn't know what "ad hominem" means? Sounds like an ad ho.... oaawwfuggit.

I didn't say anything about his argument in that post. 

[ndawg 1242]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't say anything about his argument in that post. 

I really should have added /s. I had the same reaction you did.

[Dahobbs 17454]

6 minutes ago, ndawg said:

I really should have added /s. I had the same reaction you did.

That was the first way I read your post. Should have stuck to my gut. 

[TexArcher 37541]

Someone I know mentioned something about people getting stuck with $1,000 electric bills already.

Is this a realistic possibility if we're with COA Utilites?

[Biff Tannen 45509]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Someone I know mentioned something about people getting stuck with $1,000 electric bills already.

Is this a realistic possibility if we're with COA Utilites?

I’m more curious to see my gas bill. Ran my gas fireplace for 6 days straight. 

[jimmyjazz 45589]

22 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Someone I know mentioned something about people getting stuck with $1,000 electric bills already.

Is this a realistic possibility if we're with COA Utilites?

No, not on your next bill.  Your rates are fixed.  

They may crank up the surcharges after the fact, but Austin Energy should not be able to pass on the spike in natural gas cost for this billing cycle.

[tantric superman 4667]

Thanks, Sleepy Joe! 

[tantric superman 4667]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Somebody's going to eat a shit sandwich.  There are three options:

1) The ratepayers, who used the electricity (and in particular, the ratepayers who signed up for variable-rate plans tied to the wholesale price of electricity);

2) The taxpayers, who are going to be on the hook if the State decides to forgive (i.e., pay) some of the bills incurred by the ratepayers; or

3) The power generators, who didn't winterize their facilities notwithstanding the 2011 recommendations from the State that they do so.

It seems to me that the best public policy would be to make the power generators take the biggest bite of this shit sandwich.  But I'm not sure that is constitutionally feasible.  And I'm damned sure as shit it's not politically feasible with a Republican-led state government.

 

[freyguy 4245]

4 hours ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

Nice ad hominem. You have another source for that info? EIA doesn’t show that at all the evening of the 16th. NG generation actually went up.




Lol. In a one week period MISO saw wind energy go from 10GW to under 1 back to 15GW and fossil fuels were there to fill the demand every minute.

SWPP is even more telling.


That’s the argument from the O&G industry, carbon generators, and their mouth pieces. You can’t incentivize unreliable energy then be surprised that the market levers don’t have thermal energy ready to back you up. I absolutely may have blinders on or drank the koolaid, but I’ve yet to see a logically laid out rebuttal to the path we’re on.



More unrelated ad hominem. France has given the western world the solution, and I find it maddening we aren’t going along. Agree, let’s start planting NOW, but rather than tweaking the market and incentivizing storage tech, and reviewing where we are in 5yrs, we need to be going full speed ahead building even old tech proven reactors with worse EnergyROI than new designs. Build and build until they’re 70% of the power supply or more. Storage or hydro at 10% for diversity and the rest mix of fossil fuels until wind and solar can pick up the baseline. If we’re scraping 5 year old reactors in 2030 cause storage has caught up and we have renewable TWs to spare, so be it, but I have an unsettling feeling will be right back here, talking what industry deserves incentives and tax credits and subsidies to make the market work the way we want. And which admins’ policies failed.

Almost 50 years ago Messmer said, “In France, we don’t have oil, but we have ideas.” It worked.

 

You're showing a graph that says wind production went down.  What's the explanation though?  Nowhere do you provide evidence as to why...so your graph is shit without that.

Why should we assume it was due to reliability?  Couldn't they also have been purposely turned off?  Drive up demand on oil & gas, and the price as well?

[Llano Estacado 1257]

Well, when their argument is that renewable energy, one of the chief ways we can battle climate change, is at fault, then I'd say it goes to credibility and bias.

...so a circumstantial ad hominem? The author’s arguments (about the failure of the grid) lack merit because a belief they hold about a different tissue, climate change. Got it.

Really though, I was just making a snarky comment because I was very confused by your continued insistence that anything he said constituted an ad hominem attack. At first I thought I was somehow missing the insults in his post. And then I realized you had no idea what that term actually meant. 

Fair enough. Exxon Co’s historic knowledge of carbon emissions impact on the planet versus American/ERCOT’s development of storage, while completely unrelated topics, isn’t an ad hominem. Apologies, its been ~20years since my 3hrs of philosophy studies.

Renewable energy is simply cheaper than thermal energy, even if you exclude subsidies (both for renewables and for fossil fuels). But, and this is the part you and that analysis miss, even if the money weren't spent on renewable power, it would not have been spent on winterization of existing plants. The companies invested in resources that gave them a return on investment. Building new power plants, whether thermal or renewable, does that. Winterizing existing power plants does not. That is why prior plants weren't winterized. And that is why the new wind mills weren't winterized. Winterization is just a cost sink for those companies. It doesn't generate income in the market Texas created.

Source or citation on renewables being cheaper with subsidies removed? Cheaper how; to generate per delivered KWs, EROI, NET to consumers?

Absolutely agreed, there was/is no incentive to winterize. But that extends the argument from the blog post and peers, that I tend to believe - There is less and less incentive for “reliability” in ERCOT or most of our grids anymore.

Take away all subsidies and PTC. What market force is there to build new thermal baseline or peaking generation? Renewables by nature are variable, their power gets purchased first adding ever increasing volatility to the grid. We need reliable peak demand capabilities and something to compensate for that volatility as our population and energy consumption grows. ROI for an investor is quick on a wind turbine, it can be built quickly without much red tape and by default its electrons are always purchased first, slam dunk. We build more wind turbines increasing the generation volatility of our grid. Existing combined cycle coal/gas plants generate less power day to day as more wind is added as a base and they become unprofitable for investors (or in a COOP/public utility model they’re mothballed, under utilized/staffed, or not properly maintained). When we need 20% of peaking power +20% of baseline, because it is a windless day, life extended combined cycle plants are unable to ramp up due to asset integrity failures further decreasing grid reliability.

On top of that pressure, you have the external force that the world’s largest investment banks and >50% politicians do not want any association with major carbon projects in 2021. Grid volatility increases and thermal source peaking capability decreases. Consumers suffer rolling blackouts. We add more renewables in response increasing baseline volatility...

[Llano Estacado 1257]

You're showing a graph that says wind production went down.  What's the explanation though?  Nowhere do you provide evidence as to why...so your graph is shit without that.
Why should we assume it was due to reliability?  Couldn't they also have been purposely turned off?  Drive up demand on oil & gas, and the price as well?

Those are actual EIA numbers. Wind production went down because either the wind wasn’t blowing or the turbine had a failure of some sort, you’d have to ask the generator. By nature we can’t stockpile fuel for green/renewables, that’s why they are variable/unreliable for baseline power generation until we’re capable of efficiently storing GWs of green energy.

Sounds like a conspiracy nonsense. Going to have to show your work on that one. A vast networked group of oil barons is powering down wind turbines to sell more carbon fuels to peaking NG plants, was that T Boone Picken’s Plan?