ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

[Hagbard Celine 11157]

3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

An addendum.  

Whether taxpayers would have squealed or not never entered the equation.  These guys give not one single fuck about the taxpayer until and unless  the taxpayers get mad enough to come after their jobs.

BEHOLD HIS MIGHTY HAND!

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/lieutenant-governor-dan-patrick-power-of-subpoena-answers-solutions-winter-storm-issues/287-7dff2cdf-46d8-4036-bda3-56908226031e

baseball bat application

++++++++++

'We're going to find what the hell happened': Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick says he'll use 'power of subpoena' to get answers to winter storm issues

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said the investigations will determine if there was any manipulation of the market.

DALLAS — Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick spoke in Dallas Monday, saying that investigations into the state's winter storm energy issues will begin Thursday and Friday.

Millions of Texans suffered power outages last week during subzero temperatures due to what was initially meant to be "rotating power outages." This turned into many people being without power for multiple days.

atrick said he and his staff will use the "power of subpoena" to bring the people responsible for these energy issues to the table this week. He said the investigations will determine if there was any manipulation of the market.

"We're going to find what the hell happened," Patrick said. "We don't want people to send us your PR guys. We expect leaders and experts from these companies to come."

Patrick said the focus right now is on the gas market and addressing the bills people are having or will have to pay. He said since the last hard freeze in 2011, ERCOT and other state energy officials had been telling them they were prepared for a winter storm like what happened last week.

"We have to be prepared for the worst of the worst and not say, 'Well gee, the system just wasn't up to it," Patrick said. "There are no excuses.

Patrick said he had a problem with some of the gas-producing West Texas plants that help provide energy for Texans losing power last week.

"One thing that is clear: You shouldn't be turning off the power for the people who are producing gas to go to the generators that produce the energy," Patrick said.

Patrick said Texas doesn't need a single type of energy. He said what the state needs is a more diverse portfolio of options to provide power.

The lieutenant governor said he and his staff are considered creating a new legislative committee that would be tasked with handling energy issues 24/7 and be ready to make changes "any day of the week."

"I'm not going to take any half-baked measures," Patrick said. "We're not going to rest until we have legislation passed that addresses this issue."

 

[SydneyCarton 49323]

8 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Makes sense.

Oh, cutting someone off mid sentence and removing all context for a sound byte. How very on brand for trash like you.

Seriously, get fucked. You're a bad person and you deserve bad things to happen to you in life. And yes, this isn't message board hyperbole. I believe that. 

[SydneyCarton 49323]

3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

BEHOLD HIS MIGHTY HAND!

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/lieutenant-governor-dan-patrick-power-of-subpoena-answers-solutions-winter-storm-issues/287-7dff2cdf-46d8-4036-bda3-56908226031e

baseball bat application

++++++++++

'We're going to find what the hell happened': Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick says he'll use 'power of subpoena' to get answers to winter storm issues

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said the investigations will determine if there was any manipulation of the market.

DALLAS — Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick spoke in Dallas Monday, saying that investigations into the state's winter storm energy issues will begin Thursday and Friday.

Millions of Texans suffered power outages last week during subzero temperatures due to what was initially meant to be "rotating power outages." This turned into many people being without power for multiple days.

atrick said he and his staff will use the "power of subpoena" to bring the people responsible for these energy issues to the table this week. He said the investigations will determine if there was any manipulation of the market.

"We're going to find what the hell happened," Patrick said. "We don't want people to send us your PR guys. We expect leaders and experts from these companies to come."

Patrick said the focus right now is on the gas market and addressing the bills people are having or will have to pay. He said since the last hard freeze in 2011, ERCOT and other state energy officials had been telling them they were prepared for a winter storm like what happened last week.

"We have to be prepared for the worst of the worst and not say, 'Well gee, the system just wasn't up to it," Patrick said. "There are no excuses.

Patrick said he had a problem with some of the gas-producing West Texas plants that help provide energy for Texans losing power last week.

"One thing that is clear: You shouldn't be turning off the power for the people who are producing gas to go to the generators that produce the energy," Patrick said.

Patrick said Texas doesn't need a single type of energy. He said what the state needs is a more diverse portfolio of options to provide power.

The lieutenant governor said he and his staff are considered creating a new legislative committee that would be tasked with handling energy issues 24/7 and be ready to make changes "any day of the week."

"I'm not going to take any half-baked measures," Patrick said. "We're not going to rest until we have legislation passed that addresses this issue."

 

Lol. Subpoena power. ERCOT and PUC officials already lining up to go speak at this thing. Lets see if the motherfucker calls the members of the Texas RR Commission. He wont.

Texas has a diverse power portfolio already, so go fuck yourself Dana Patrick. 

[Brisketexan 106615]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Lol. Subpoena power. ERCOT and PUC officials already lining up to go speak at this thing. Lets see if the motherfucker calls the members of the Texas RR Commission. He wont.

Texas has a diverse power portfolio already, so go fuck yourself Dana Patrick. 

All Dan knows about this issue is that -- regardless of what the facts show -- he's going to blame AOC and the Biden admin and the Green New Deal, and studiously avoid him or the Texas GOP taking ANY responsibility or blame.  Write that in stone, and lock it up.

We don't have leaders who operate in good-faith, so why in the hell would any of us expect a good-faith investigation or good faith solutions?

Edited February 22, 2021 by Brisketexan

[Guest Lobo]

Texas' energy portfolio is as diverse as Dan Patrick's wardrobe.  

[Hagbard Celine 11157]

i'm a pacifist, but i want to see a pipe-hitting motherfucker take a baseball bat to that sonofabitch

evil

pure evil

[Brisketexan 106615]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Texas' energy portfolio is as diverse as Dan Patrick's wardrobe.  

If only.  There's a lot of energy available when...

Edited February 22, 2021 by Brisketexan

[Pam Cummings 9823]

22 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Makes sense.

I've got endless negs and i'm not afraid to use them. Stop shitting this thread you worthless prick.

[jimmyjazz 46967]

44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You live in Austin, you tell us.

Uh . . . my rates are fixed BECAUSE I live in Austin.  I am not allowed to pick my provider.  I buy power from Austin Energy, period.  Hence, the question.  Is a rancher in Bumfuck, TX able to lock in his rates or not?

I really didn't think it was that complex a request.

[Guest Lobo]

In hindsight, I should have sprung for the ERCOT extended warranty on my energy grid.  Probably the undercoating, too.  I dunno.

[SydneyCarton 49323]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Uh . . . my rates are fixed BECAUSE I live in Austin.  I am not allowed to pick my provider.  I buy power from Austin Energy, period.  Hence, the question.  Is a rancher in Bumfuck, TX able to lock in his rates or not?

I really didn't think it was that complex a request.

Well, without you turning into a complete condescending prick immediately, allow me to answer why it is, actually a bit more of a complex request than you fucking assumed.

First, I think there's a fundamental disconnect here in our terminology. Yes, you live in Austin, you can't pick your provider, but that doesn't necessarily make your rates "fixed" at least in my terminology. It just means your PROVIDER is fixed. To me "fixed rates" means including a guaranteed time period for said rate. Like 6, or 12 months. Many providers in areas without choice (like Austin, or say Bluebonnet Co-Op, or Nueces Co-op) can just charge whatever they're going to charge their customers each month, and it can change month to month. For some guys, that might be the only option given customers. But some areas also allow their customers, even if there is no other competitive choice, to lock in a rate for months at a time to avoid volatility. There's something like 200 smaller MUDs and Co-Ops as well as big cities like Austin and San Antonio that don't have electric choice, so I don't know how they all work or the options they give.

So, to repeat my question, you're in Austin, you tell me. Is your rate guaranteed over 12 months, or 6 months, regardless, or do they just send you a bill each month and you have no idea? Do you have multiple rate or plan options? Because honestly, I didn't think it was that complex of a request.  

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by SydneyCarton

[DonkeyCigars 143]

22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, cutting someone off mid sentence and removing all context for a sound byte. How very on brand for trash like you.

Seriously, get fucked. You're a bad person and you deserve bad things to happen to you in life. And yes, this isn't message board hyperbole. I believe that. 

Let's agree to agree on the assessments of each other. I don't find you to be very intelligent or valuable either.

[jimmyjazz 46967]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, without you turning into a complete prick immediately, allow me to answer why it is, actually a bit more of a complex request than you fucking assumed.

First, I think there's a fundamental disconnect here in our terminology. Yes, you live in Austin, you can't pick your provider, but that doesn't necessarily make your rates "fixed" at least in my terminology. It just means your PROVIDER is fixed. To me "fixed rates" means including a guaranteed time period for said rate. Like 6, or 12 months. Many providers in areas without choice (like Austin, or say Bluebonnet Co-Op, or Nueces Co-op) can just charge whatever they're going to charge their customers each month, and it can change month to month. For some guys, that might be the only option given customers. But some areas also allow their customers, even if there is no other competitive choice, to lock in a rate for months at a time to avoid volatility. There's something like 200 smaller MUDs and Co-Ops as well as big cities like Austin and San Antonio that don't have electric choice, so I don't know how they all work or the options they give.

So, to repeat my question, you're in Austin, you tell me. Is your rate guaranteed over 12 months, or 6 months, regardless, or do they just send you a bill each month and you have no idea? Because honestly, I didn't think it was that complex of a request.  

 

Holy shit, back off, hoss.

My rates have not changed (to my knowledge) for years.  If they have, it's been incredibly minor.  I think they might have gone down last summer due to pandemic stress, but I could be wrong on that.  It's a long time and a lot of drama ago.

I know what my rate is for a given billing period, that is 100% rock solid cemented in stone.  I just look them up on the website. 

My question, which was abundantly clear to the unimpaired, was essentially "does everyone in Texas have the option to build in (largely) static rates, or are some power consumers forced to deal with 2+ orders of magnitude swings in energy price subject to forces outside their control?"

Do you know the answer to that question?  If not, then fuck off.

[Biff Tannen 46060]

Wooooo boy, Sydney is SALTY today.

[Guest Lobo]

This thread is getting, dare I say...heated?  

It is amusing watching some political heroes shift their tone these last couple days from "It's Wind's fault!" to "I'm calling for a full investigation into ERCOT" to "We should take pride in Texans helping other Texans during this unprecedented time" to "Fuck if I know?" 

[SydneyCarton 49323]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Holy shit, back off, hoss.

My rates have not changed (to my knowledge) for years.  If they have, it's been incredibly minor.  I think they might have gone down last summer due to pandemic stress, but I could be wrong on that.  It's a long time and a lot of drama ago.

I know what my rate is for a given billing period, that is 100% rock solid cemented in stone.  I just look them up on the website. 

My question, which was abundantly clear to the unimpaired, was essentially "does everyone in Texas have the option to build in (largely) static rates, or are some power consumers forced to deal with 2+ orders of magnitude swings in energy price subject to forces outside their control?"

Do you know the answer to that question?  If not, then fuck off.

So I'm impaired now?

I think I've essentially answered that question in two posts now. There are over 200+ rural co-ops and MUDS and they all have different policies on how they bill and what options they offer. Many inevitably don't have the kind of option to build in static rates you're suggesting. Your rate may by 100% rock solid from month to month, but me asking you questions about your bill is me attempting to ascertain more info about Austin. If memory serves, Austin's rate has stayed so low for years despite incurring a quarter billion dollar debt a decade ago has to do with the fact that a rate hike has to be approved by the city council there, and no one who ever wants to get re-elected votes to raise the hike. The last time I checked on that was years ago. But the point is, not everyone has control over those rates, so inevitably guys who think they have a rock solid rate like you do could wake up next month and see it completely tripled. Quadrupled. So yeah, this is going to likely fuck with a lot of people because of things outside their control. 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Holy shit, back off, hoss.

My rates have not changed (to my knowledge) for years.  If they have, it's been incredibly minor.  I think they might have gone down last summer due to pandemic stress, but I could be wrong on that.  It's a long time and a lot of drama ago.

I know what my rate is for a given billing period, that is 100% rock solid cemented in stone.  I just look them up on the website. 

My question, which was abundantly clear to the unimpaired, was essentially "does everyone in Texas have the option to build in (largely) static rates, or are some power consumers forced to deal with 2+ orders of magnitude swings in energy price subject to forces outside their control?"

Do you know the answer to that question?  If not, then fuck off.

Yes.  When I lived in Dallas, you had the option of providers.  Most providers would only offer fixed rates, and you signed up for a 12- 6- or 3-month term during which that rate was fixed.  At the end of the term, you went month-to-month unless you (1) opted for a different provider or (2) re-signed for a new term.  But even on that month-to-month deal, the rate wasn't variable; it was fixed for the entire month.

[Biff Tannen 46060]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So I'm impaired now?

[SydneyCarton 49323]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Wooooo boy, Sydney is SALTY today.

Listen, one guy is was a thread shitting prick with his head willfully affixed up his ass, and the other one turned immediately condescending because he didn't think his question was complex when a.) It is b.) I answered it twice and 3) He conflated having a fixed rate with having a single provider for electricity. In that instance, I wasn't the person to get condescending first. 

[SydneyCarton 49323]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yes.  When I lived in Dallas, you had the option of providers.  Most providers would only offer fixed rates, and you signed up for a 12- 6- or 3-month term during which that rate was fixed.  At the end of the term, you went month-to-month unless you (1) opted for a different provider or (2) re-signed for a new term.  But even on that month-to-month deal, the rate wasn't variable; it was fixed for the entire month.

You've described deregulated areas, but I believe he was asking about rural customers, which often aren't in deregulated areas and are managed by CO-OPs and MUDs and the like. And if I was understanding, are those people potentially looking at sky high rates next month (or tomorrow). Basically, the people in white:

Edited February 22, 2021 by SydneyCarton

[Ghost of LL 15664]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You've described deregulated areas, but I believe he was asking about rural customers, which often aren't in deregulated areas and are managed by CO-OPs and MUDs and the like. And if I was understanding, are those people potentially looking at sky high rates next month (or tomorrow). Basically, the people in white:

Got it.  Thank you.

Yeah--I really don't have the first clue what happens on a retail basis out in the sticks.

[jimmyjazz 46967]

24 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So I'm impaired now?

I think I've essentially answered that question in two posts now. There are over 200+ rural co-ops and MUDS and they all have different policies on how they bill and what options they offer. Many inevitably don't have the kind of option to build in static rates you're suggesting. Your rate may by 100% rock solid from month to month, but me asking you questions about your bill is me attempting to ascertain more info about Austin. If memory serves, Austin's rate has stayed so low for years despite incurring a quarter billion dollar debt a decade ago has to do with the fact that a rate hike has to be approved by the city council there, and no one who ever wants to get re-elected votes to raise the hike. The last time I checked on that was years ago. But the point is, not everyone has control over those rates, so inevitably guys who think they have a rock solid rate like you do could wake up next month and see it completely tripled. Quadrupled. So yeah, this is going to likely fuck with a lot of people because of things outside their control. 

Your interest in Austin is of no concern to me.  You were presuming to answer a question I had about Joe Blow's potential rate exposure, and even you don't know the answer because you hedged with the word "inevitably".

So just admit you don't know whether or not there are Texans who have no choice but to be bent over and ass-fucked by $9K/MWh electric rates, should a situation arise like happened last week.

[jimmyjazz 46967]

23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He conflated having a fixed rate with having a single provider for electricity. In that instance, I wasn't the person to get condescending first. 

I encourage you to go back and read where I said essentially the same thing, but yesterday.

By the way, your definition of "being a prick" apparently excludes your primary prickishness, because I was not a prick whatsover.  

[fattyflattie 4640]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I'd rather have a car that will get an occasional flat, which we can change quickly and limp on down the road, than one that gets four flat tires and a blown engine at the same time.

Nobody contends that ANY mechanism is perfect, and failure-proof.  But that model is 1) much less likely to fail, and 2) when it does fail, it is much less likely to be to a catastrophic degree.

See my preferred ride, with new tires that might run over a nail, vs. the bald tires Ford Pinto we've got right now.

I don't disagree.  But she is literally the only poster I've seen mentioning that there have been severe (dead people) in other systems, and not that irregularly.  Doesn't mean we shouldn't get our shit in order here in Texas, by any stretch.  

[SydneyCarton 49323]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Your interest in Austin is of no concern to me.  You were presuming to answer a question I had about Joe Blow's potential rate exposure, and even you don't know the answer because you hedged with the word "inevitably".

So just admit you don't know whether or not there are Texans who have no choice but to be bent over and ass-fucked by $9K/MWh electric rates, should a situation arise like happened last week.

Let me count the ways I answered "I dont know" to the best of my ability. Starting with my first response to you, second sentence. I'm not sure how 75% of my very first comment to you outlining the ways I dont know for certain, and I don't think anyone knows for certain, could have been more up front and transparent for you. 

 

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

You live in Austin, you tell us. My understanding is it's going to depend on the local Co-Op, or CPS in San Antonio, Austin, Energy, or any local MUD that provides the power. I don't think you're going to get a single answer, it will depend. The chances are the small guys over-hedged and didn't have to buy as much or any on the spot market, because they're less concerned with profit margins. At least I hope. But that's just a guess. Anyone here in Austin or San Antonio should be able to answer your question, however, specifically. 

Then further clarification:

43 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, without you turning into a complete condescending prick immediately, allow me to answer why it is, actually a bit more of a complex request than you fucking assumed.

First, I think there's a fundamental disconnect here in our terminology. Yes, you live in Austin, you can't pick your provider, but that doesn't necessarily make your rates "fixed" at least in my terminology. It just means your PROVIDER is fixed. To me "fixed rates" means including a guaranteed time period for said rate. Like 6, or 12 months. Many providers in areas without choice (like Austin, or say Bluebonnet Co-Op, or Nueces Co-op) can just charge whatever they're going to charge their customers each month, and it can change month to month. For some guys, that might be the only option given customers. But some areas also allow their customers, even if there is no other competitive choice, to lock in a rate for months at a time to avoid volatility. There's something like 200 smaller MUDs and Co-Ops as well as big cities like Austin and San Antonio that don't have electric choice, so I don't know how they all work or the options they give.

So, to repeat my question, you're in Austin, you tell me. Is your rate guaranteed over 12 months, or 6 months, regardless, or do they just send you a bill each month and you have no idea? Do you have multiple rate or plan options? Because honestly, I didn't think it was that complex of a request.  

 

Oh, more?

30 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So I'm impaired now?

I think I've essentially answered that question in two posts now. There are over 200+ rural co-ops and MUDS and they all have different policies on how they bill and what options they offer. Many inevitably don't have the kind of option to build in static rates you're suggesting. Your rate may by 100% rock solid from month to month, but me asking you questions about your bill is me attempting to ascertain more info about Austin. If memory serves, Austin's rate has stayed so low for years despite incurring a quarter billion dollar debt a decade ago has to do with the fact that a rate hike has to be approved by the city council there, and no one who ever wants to get re-elected votes to raise the hike. The last time I checked on that was years ago. But the point is, not everyone has control over those rates, so inevitably guys who think they have a rock solid rate like you do could wake up next month and see it completely tripled. Quadrupled. So yeah, this is going to likely fuck with a lot of people because of things outside their control. 

I made no efforts to hide my lack of absolute certainty on the situation given the fact I don't know how the hedging and trading practices of the hundreds of smaller municipalities in Texas. I laid out this lack of certainty and attempted to offer what other information and context I could, before you immediately showed up to be a condescending prick pretty much immediately. Listen, I'm sorry you're a grumpy old fuck. And I'm sorry that the numerous bolded areas of my posts somehow didn't indicate to you "I dont know with certainty because __________________________." But yeah, I'm sorry I bothered trying to answer your question to the best of my ability. 

 

[SydneyCarton 49323]

11 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I encourage you to go back and read where I said essentially the same thing, but yesterday.

By the way, your definition of "being a prick" apparently excludes your primary prickishness, because I was not a prick whatsover.  

I mean, do I need to go back and read something you apparently said yesterday, and then made the mistake of fucking up again today?

Hey man, when I type out a post that apparently doesn't meet your needs because you can't stop conflating Single Provider and Fixed Rate, and you respond with "I didn't think it was a very complex question" yeah, you're being the condescending prick. 

I'm an asshole. But I generally wait for someone else to be wildly stupid or cast the first stone before I start being a dick. What's your excuse?

Edited February 22, 2021 by SydneyCarton

[Dahobbs 18183]

quoted wrong post. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Dahobbs

[Dahobbs 18183]

1 hour ago, Llano Estacado said:

Apologies to all for derailing this thread a little with what isn’t the root cause failure, but a point I think our energy policy makers miss yelling past each other about their preferred energy source.

I’m not blaming wind. All sources failed.

Root cause until proven otherwise is failure of Abbot, TXLeg, PUC/ERCOT/RRC to have out grid properly winterized. Period. Full stop.

Secondary cause is ERCOTs silly Energy-only 5 min spot pricing market which does nothing to incentivize dependability and reliability, which I’m obviously concerned about.
 

 

I’m attempting (maybe poorly) to utilize actual US Energy Information Admin hourly grid generation numbers by source type via their web tool. See below for 1 last attempt.

Fully agreed. I think our push for renewables, while a good thing is causing grid instability and policy makers aren’t addressing it quite literally leaving customers/citizens in the dark.



Your questions in the first post posited that wind turbines were intentionally turned off by unnamed sources to increase demand for oil and gas, and profits. That is ludicrous.

Im not manipulating or omitting anything. I’m pulling screen grabs from the EIA.gov web tool. If you think their graphs lack pertinent detail or are shitty maybe write their web team an email or something.



Agreed. Our peaking plants, almost all of which are CCGTs failed us, but again I’ll try to point out a stable grid must have dependable baseline and peaking production, and we don’t, and market forces intended or not are making it worse.



Okay, EIA.gov graphs of generation by source for last week’s failure by ERCOT and SWPP that didn’t see wide spread outages.

Looking at the SWPP graph we see wind source power (green) fluctuate from 10GWs at the beginning to less than 1GW in the middle and then approx 15GWs at the end. The ERCOT grid, as we’d expect, shows similar fluctuations across the whole period from ~20GW to 0GW. The top curve of the graph is total generation based on grid demand, this fluctuates as we’d expect with temperature and daily end-user cyclical demand. In the middle is NG (tan) combined cycle gas turbines peaking and scaling down, the yeoman of the American grid.

Wind MWs are going to be purchased first in nearly all of our grids, because
A)storage tech of the capacity we need isn’t available. it’s use it or lose it.
B)Wind is variable, always will be.
C)we have NG in the middle which is great at scaling, and if supply is way out of whack with demand in an electrical system, we burn up lines, blow transformers, and generally bad shit happens to all our infrastructure. (Which is why ERCOT Pres Bill Magness’ comments days after the fact that “we were minutes away” from catastrophic months long blackouts is happy horseshit cover for himself. We’re always minutes away from zapping ourselves into oblivion that’s why we have a Public Utility Council and “reliability” council)
D)The Production Tax Credit

I believe all the above puts intended and unintended market pressure on NG generation. On the ERCOT chart we see across the week NG goes from maybe 1GW to 20GW back down approaching 0 then shooting up to over 40GW as units and fuel got back online. That’s ~50% to ~5% to ~66% of total grid generation in the span of a week. The SWPP shows similar, but less extreme volatility as we’d expect as they didn’t have 100% of their grid under winter advisory.

My position is that is an insane way to manage “reliability” in your grid. Gas turbines are efficient scalers, they can be ramped up, ramped down, coupled or uncoupled form waste heat generation. But 20GWs or fucking 40GWs isn’t a few peaking units going from 80% to 100% capacity. That is dozens of plants being kicked on and off. It’s one thing to have that kind of scaling based on seasonal demand, but quite another to be a regular fixture of your grid. (Caveat; this week was abnormal Black Swan-esque for Texas). I’m not an industry expert but that has to be a nightmare for scheduling (standard operations and maintenance and downtime), forecasting fuel needs, budgeting, and logistics. As part of my day job I’m not responsible for the reliability of 6x 20 year old 4.25MW gas turbines, but he’s on our team. As a mechanical engineer I’m a firm believer that Newton’s 1st law also applies to plants/facilities/rotating equipment and reliability.

2nd example. California black/brown outs.


https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/08/18/california-has-first-rolling-blackouts-in-19-years-and-everyone-faces-blame-1309757

Not knowing exactly which day the worst rolling blackouts occurred, I can’t get exact data from EIA, but look at the worst demand days for August 2020, and the CISO grid saw avg total demand of ~35GW, and NG as a source saw peak demand of ~25GWs. A single gas plant, 470MWs, 1.3% of total capacity, 1.8% of fuel source capacity went offline and it crippled one of the world’s largest economies for days, because they happened to be seasonally warm and still. And I don’t buy wild fires as a “black swan” Cali has wild fires.

Per ElFenix’s article up thread Iowa/MISO grid had a similar “near miss” last week.

Summarization: By slowly increasing renewables were slowly increasing volatility in all grids (both because renewables are variable in nature and because we remove legacy thermal as new renewables are brought online) which increases need for additional demand capacity from our peaking combined cycle gas turbines while also slowly decreasing their ROI versus the renewables.

We’re squeezing the shit out of our yeoman-like middle man then acting shocked and pointing fingers when he fails.

Solutions:
ERCOT ties into the larger federal grid, allowing for additional demand capacity when needed. Works, but as noted almost all grids are seeing similar build in volatility.

Increase baseline generation from thermals other than NG, to reduce NGs baseline and act as our middle man with plenty of reserve capacity. My preference would be the French model for a nuclear base.

Incentivize new NG-CCGTs as either baseline or new reliable demand generation instead of life extending old facilities and not offering a market level for preventative maintenance above the bare minimum

Incentivize/ subsidies storage tech like crazy and hope Elon or someone else pulls a rabbit out of their hat and wind and storage can be utilized as dependable baseline.

 

It is a bit of fallacy to say that the only way to reliably power a grid is with a large baseload generation. It is a way, certainly. You could also have overlapping power curves from multiple generation sources. Or you could arrange for large scale storage. Both of those are technically feasible, but underinvested right now.  That said, natural gas is a decent enough stepping stone until we build the required infrastructure for a truly renewable only power grid. Nuclear would be enticing, but it is pretty clear that we cannot do it economically. 

[jimmyjazz 46967]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

L

So how does my residence in Austin give me insight into the answer?

Look, closetoclosetojumping, I don't give a fuck that you don't know the answer.  Don't act like I should know the answer.  You misinterpreted the question.  As an Austin resident, I am not exposed to current market rates.  I *might* be exposed to future rate hikes, but I cannot get tagged with 10X (or more) rate hikes on power *I HAVE ALREADY CONSUMED*.  

My question, once again:  are there Texans who have NO CHOICE but to be exposed to massive price volatility on a minute-by-minute (day-by-day, whatever) basis?

Where I was going with this:  if such exposure exists, then that should be an input to the local (home) power generation equation, be it renewable (solar, wind, geothermal) or onsite plant (fossil-fuel powered generator).  It's one thing to do the math based on normal rates.  It's another thing entirely when one can get fucked over with a $10K power bill over the course of a few days, when a little knowledge and investment might (a) beat that cost and (b) in an ideal world, help reduce utility power consumption under normal conditions.

Believe it or not, I'm actually seeking information that might lead to better solutions.

[SydneyCarton 49323]

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So how does my residence in Austin give me insight into the answer?

Look, closetoclosetojumping, I don't give a fuck that you don't know the answer.  Don't act like I should know the answer.  You misinterpreted the question.  As an Austin resident, I am not exposed to current market rates.  I *might* be exposed to future rate hikes, but I cannot get tagged with 10X (or more) rate hikes on power *I HAVE ALREADY CONSUMED*.  

My question, once again:  are there Texans who have NO CHOICE but to be exposed to massive price volatility on a minute-by-minute (day-by-day, whatever) basis?

Where I was going with this:  if such exposure exists, then that should be an input to the local (home) power generation equation, be it renewable (solar, wind, geothermal) or onsite plant (fossil-fuel powered generator).  It's one thing to do the math based on normal rates.  It's another thing entirely when one can get fucked over with a $10K power bill over the course of a few days, when a little knowledge and investment might (a) beat that cost and (b) in an ideal world, help reduce utility power consumption under normal conditions.

Believe it or not, I'm actually seeking information that might lead to better solutions.

Because Austin is regulated. So is San Antonio. So me asking about your Austin Energy bill and how it works would give me further insight to other rural regulated areas and how they work, and how widespread potential fixed rates are in rural municipalities. That's how. Which is why I asked.

The only answer I expected you to know was whether you signed up for any kind of extended plan with Austin Energy, or just a month to month rate. Which is what i asked. Is that somehow too unreasonable for you to know? In your instance, as I said about the Austin City Council, the chances of you getting charged massive rate hikes next month are unlikely. You'll be charged more over the next decade. But you eventually answered, which is that it sounds like it's locked in month to month or every meter read for you, and not some agreement you sign every year for a certain rate. 

To reiterate, YOU in Austin are safe. I remembered the city council rate approval mid conversation.  Rural folks won't all have that kind of protection. That being said, I think most rural folks are probably safe, but I can't know for sure as I don't know the specifics of how their co-op or MUD operates. I think they'll likely have those rates built in over years, but I am sure some smaller guys will be hit at once and have that passed onto the customers directly. The relief that the state ends up providing should flatten out any extreme bills, but again, that's just me reading tea leaves.

Folks should absolutely take these things into account when they hit the ballot box. They're important issues, and they impact folks directly. One way or another, this is going to be passed onto the taxpayer. Additionally, I think Solar Energy and anything else folks can do to limit liability on a personal individual homeowner, or even better, be able to sell energy BACK to the grid in times such as these, are great ideas folks should look at for long term investment. If somehow you were producing extra power over this crisis and could sell back at the 9k, rates, you could have made yourself some MONEY. But I believe access to the tie-ins to the grid that allow solar to flow back might be limited in rural areas. 

I would compare this to the climate change arguments, honestly. IMO, fixing this shit with winterizing will end up inevitably being much cheaper than the sum total of what this is going to cost us now. Both in electricity bills as well as thrown out food, busted pipe repair, anyone's hotel feels if they were lucky enough to get a hotel, etc. Even if electricity became 20% more expensive for Texans every month to cover the costs of winterization, you're talking about 2-500 bucks a year from normal folks to mansion owners with big pools. I lost more than $200 of food. 

Believe it or not, I was trying to give you as much information as I had. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by SydneyCarton

[Biff Tannen 46060]

[jimmyjazz 46967]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The only answer I expected you to know was whether you signed up for any kind of extended plan with Austin Energy, or just a month to month rate.

Austin Energy dictates the rates.  There is no "plan" where I agree to an absolute static rate for X months.  Whether they push rate changes out to the public or not is not something I know -- I don't read the fine print.  I pay the bill.  I have no choice.  I do have a keen sense of when bills are wonky, which way more often than not is related to (a) water leaks (because they bill water too) or (b) abnormal summer temperatures, either high or low.

So, I can't tell you if or when AE has changed $/kWhr rate structures.  It's so close to static that I don't pay that much attention.

 

Quote

Believe it or not, I was trying to give you as much information as I had. 

Gotcha.  We're good.

[hayden_horn 11401]

i hate it when yall fight

[Biff Tannen 46060]

3 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i hate it when yall fight

It's just this war and that LYIN' SONOFABITCH JOHNSON!

[Llano Estacado 1257]

It is a bit of fallacy to say that the only way to reliably power a grid is with a large baseload generation. It is a way, certainly. You could also have overlapping power curves from multiple generation sources. Or you could arrange for large scale storage. Both of those are technically feasible, but underinvested right now.  That said, natural gas is a decent enough stepping stone until we build the required infrastructure for a truly renewable only power grid. Nuclear would be enticing, but it is pretty clear that we cannot do it economically. 

I never said large baseload was the only way to more reliability.

Agreed, I’m saying American system is almost all overlapping power curves with different ratios of renewables to thermal at this time, with CA leading in renewables and ISO New England being the laggard. My argument is we’re under investing and there is not a market lever for the NG as a stepping stone path we’re walking. We’re adding volatility and increasingly relying on 20-30yr old NG-CC for both base and demand capacity, which isn’t reliable.

EIA numbers: Average capacity factor for NG-CC increased from 43% in 2011, to 56% in 2016, to 67.4% in 2019 (the last year listed) with 72.4% in august. We’re increasingly utilizing our grids peaking plants not for their reserve capacity as intended, but as part of the base

[MoJames 8258]

Everything hunky dory in Colorado.

Haven't been following as closely as previously, but I'm assuming there nothing will change in the world of Texas Energy?

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

3 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Everything hunky dory in Colorado.

Haven't been following as closely as previously, but I'm assuming there nothing will change in the world of Texas Energy?

There will be a hearing with a pre-determined outcome of doing nothing and a federal bailout 

[kevwun 16269]

My advice would be to get a whole home generator if you can afford it.  Cause these motherfuckers aren't fixing anything.

[Biff Tannen 46060]

3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

There will be a hearing with a pre-determined outcome of doing nothing and a federal bailout 

And not a single republican will scream SOCIALISM!

[Dahobbs 18183]

29 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

I never said large baseload was the only way to more reliability.

Agreed, I’m saying American system is almost all overlapping power curves with different ratios of renewables to thermal at this time, with CA leading in renewables and ISO New England being the laggard. My argument is we’re under investing and there is not a market lever for the NG as a stepping stone path we’re walking. We’re adding volatility and increasingly relying on 20-30yr old NG-CC for both base and demand capacity, which isn’t reliable.

EIA numbers: Average capacity factor for NG-CC increased from 43% in 2011, to 56% in 2016, to 67.4% in 2019 (the last year listed) with 72.4% in august. We’re increasingly utilizing our grids peaking plants not for their reserve capacity as intended, but as part of the base

 

I don't understand why (1) you think this is bad and (2) why you associate it with renewables. NG-CC has been replacing coal. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25652#:~:text=The capacity factor of the,over the past few years.

The increase in NG-CC utilization is a result of decrease in coal utilization.  And it isn't in and of itself a bad thing. NG-CC plants need to be used pretty extensively to operate efficiently. These aren't peaker plants. 

Also, I'm not quite sure where you've gotten the impression that we aren't building new natural gas plants:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/overpowered-why-a-us-gas-building-spree-continues-despite-electricity-glut-54188928

Quote

That building spree has led to a glut of generation capacity in many regions. And it continues today, because natural gas is cheap and because business models and regulatory structures reward many U.S. utilities for building new infrastructure, whether it is economically viable or not. And ratepayers and investors will likely have to foot the bill. Between 2008 and Aug. 1, 2019, a period of essentially flat demand, the U.S. added 120,498 MW of natural gas-fired capacity to its generation fleet, including nearly 26,000 MW in 2018 and 2019 alone. At least 200 new gas plants are planned or in development across the U.S., totaling nearly 70,200 MW of additional capacity — nearly equal to total generation capacity in Texas.

 

[elfenix 34658]

4 hours ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Maybe I have a wrong understanding as I haven't dug into the service, but isn't what you described exactly what Griddy is?

Griddy gives you the 5 minute price that ERCOT sets.  You can program a bunch of smart home stuff using IFTTT to muck about with your appliances in reaction to the 5 minute prices.  And you can adjust other behavior like cooking on the grill rather than the stove or not running laundry to help minimize use during spikes.  Other REPs do have incentives to get you to not use as much during higher priced times, like free nights or weekends.  IIRC there was a REP that was touting how it integrated with one of the big smart home systems rather than using (more flexible, but much more code-monkey oriented) IFTTT, but I don't think it was based on the wholesale spot market like Griddy is. 

That said, letting your house get a little warm for a few hours when you might not be home in August and then cooking outside to avoid a few hours of $9 pricing, knowing that the price drops to pennies again each night so you can A/C the fuck out of your house isn't at all the same as nearly 4 days of $9 per.  The former is more common and more predictable than the latter.  Further, (afaik) the PUC ordered ERCOT to set the price at $9 per on Monday afternoon and only rescinded on Friday morning.  That's also something not particularly predictable.

[SydneyCarton 49323]

34 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Griddy gives you the 5 minute price that ERCOT sets.  You can program a bunch of smart home stuff using IFTTT to muck about with your appliances in reaction to the 5 minute prices.  And you can adjust other behavior like cooking on the grill rather than the stove or not running laundry to help minimize use during spikes.  Other REPs do have incentives to get you to not use as much during higher priced times, like free nights or weekends.  IIRC there was a REP that was touting how it integrated with one of the big smart home systems rather than using (more flexible, but much more code-monkey oriented) IFTTT, but I don't think it was based on the wholesale spot market like Griddy is. 

That said, letting your house get a little warm for a few hours when you might not be home in August and then cooking outside to avoid a few hours of $9 pricing, knowing that the price drops to pennies again each night so you can A/C the fuck out of your house isn't at all the same as nearly 4 days of $9 per.  The former is more common and more predictable than the latter.  Further, (afaik) the PUC ordered ERCOT to set the price at $9 per on Monday afternoon and only rescinded on Friday morning.  That's also something not particularly predictable.

You still with Griddy? Howd you fare? Because most REPs by sunday moved out start dates to today or early March. So even as calls to bail by Griddy to their customers we’re going out, other REPs weren’t accepting new customers till after the storm passed. Which means even folks who believe they switched probably have had a rude awakening. 
 

My buddy had a commercial account with them. Which are much less simple to switch than residential. He started trying to get off Griddy 10 or 11 days ago, but couldn’t find a commercial REP interested. His normally 800 bill is sitting at 18k for the first 3 weeks of February. I’m not a Griddy fan. The risk was never worth it. 

[Llano Estacado 1257]

I don't understand why (1) you think this is bad and (2) why you associate it with renewables. NG-CC has been replacing coal. 
These aren't peaker plants. 
 

1)It isn’t bad in and of itself, but it doesn’t leave enough reserve capacity for worse case days  
2)I’m aware. Here’s some slightly newer data through 2018.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39012
3) Now we’re getting somewhere. What’s your definition of “peaker plants”?
4) Maybe we aren’t building NGCCs near fast enough. 68 GWs solar, 30GW wind, and 8 GW Battery to just 6GW NG  by 2023 (chron article doesn’t reference  source, but I have a hard time believing those numbers are achievable for Solar and Battery)

https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Texas-to-build-more-solar-wind-batteries-than-15062905.php


Here’s another example where ERCOT needed 60MW from Mexico, a tiny fraction of total grid demand, because we didn’t have reserve capacity. 
https://www.powermag.com/texas-impending-reliability-issues-with-wind-power/

As mentioned in my long post, California missed reserve capacity by less than 0.5GW, and 1.3% IIRC and caused days of crippling their economy and jeopardizing the safety of their citizens. That’s a THIN margin for something so critical.

edit:chron link didn’t paste properly, then clipped the end of the post.

[Biff Tannen 46060]

13 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

68 GWs solar, 30GW wind, and 8 GW Battery to just 6GW NG  by 2023 (chron article doesn’t reference  source, but I have a hard time believing those numbers are achievable for Solar and Battery)

Why don't you believe those numbers are achievable for solar and battery?  The Webberville Solar Farm is 30GWac by itself and the Tesla Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia is 150MW.  Or is it just the timeframe you don't believe?  The Hornsdale project was completed in 60 days.  Granted, they busted their ass to get it done that fast, but it's certainly doable.  Can't find how long it took for the Webberville project construction.

[Nivek 17330]

I love how we are conditioned to accept high frequency variable rates on goods and I would like to open a restaurant that does this.

“Yes sir, that market price lobster was $22 but your soda shot up 8000% because some reddit users spiked the between the time I gave you a menu and when you accepted delivery and we still need our 300% margin! Handing you second by second pricing would be socialism.”

I’ll probably only have to work one day.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

Why don't you believe those numbers are achievable for solar and battery?  The Webberville Solar Farm is 30GWac by itself and the Tesla Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia is 150MW.  Or is it just the timeframe you don't believe?  The Hornsdale project was completed in 60 days.  Granted, they busted their ass to get it done that fast, but it's certainly doable.  Can't find how long it took for the Webberville project construction.

Both size and duration.

Webberville is 30MWs not gigas, you need ~2000 of them in 2-3yrs. Hundreds of thousands of surface acres owned or under lease.

Not a subject matter expert, but the only 1 GW battery project I’ve heard of was announced this year in Australia, it is 3-4x bigger project than anything that exists currently. Texas would need 8 of them.

Tech is improving fast but engineering takes time, project development takes time, surface rights in a state that’s 95+% privately owned take a lot of time.

[elfenix 34658]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

You still with Griddy? Howd you fare? Because most REPs by sunday moved out start dates to today or early March. So even as calls to bail by Griddy to their customers we’re going out, other REPs weren’t accepting new customers till after the storm passed. Which means even folks who believe they switched probably have had a rude awakening. 
 

My buddy had a commercial account with them. Which are much less simple to switch than residential. He started trying to get off Griddy 10 or 11 days ago, but couldn’t find a commercial REP interested. His normally 800 bill is sitting at 18k for the first 3 weeks of February. I’m not a Griddy fan. The risk was never worth it. 

unplugged everything i could find and got down to 3.8 and 3.7 kwh used on wednesday and thursday, so not entirely horrible as far as the wallet is concerned. spent most of the day elsewhere tuesday-thursday.  it did allow me to find that 60° is where my down comforter actually gets comfortable. 

there's a lot more selection on powertochoose now than there was this time last week.

[jimmyjazz 46967]

31 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

Not a subject matter expert, but the only 1 GW battery project I’ve heard of was announced this year in Australia, it is 3-4x bigger project than anything that exists currently. Texas would need 8 of them.

Tech is improving fast but engineering takes time, project development takes time, surface rights in a state that’s 95+% privately owned take a lot of time.

Be specific.  Energy storage requirements are only defined in the context of how many watt*hrs are to be delivered on a daily basis, and that's above and beyond (or in lieu of) online power generation.  

As others have said, we can plan around 6 hours of solar per day even without storage.  It tends to match up nicely to peak demand in Texas, particularly in the summer.  Wind is more of a 24-hour resource, albeit with more variability than with fueled thermal sources.

There is a bogeyman being promoted that lack of constancy implies lack of predictability, and that's just not true.  We obviously have a baseline of total generated power below which we should not drop, and that should be accounted for, but just because sun and wind are not static sources doesn't mean we can't incorporate them into the overall infrastructure and reduce dependence on fossil fuels in the process.

[JohnLocke 115]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

There is a bogeyman being promoted that lack of constancy implies lack of predictability, and that's just not true.  We obviously have a baseline of total generated power below which we should not drop, and that should be accounted for, but just because sun and wind are not static sources doesn't mean we can't incorporate them into the overall infrastructure and reduce dependence on fossil fuels in the process.

The problem with wind is the same as it has always been.  You have to back it up with fossil fuel plants since you can't rely on it. This always winds up increasing what the consumer pays for electricity.   It is about 1/4 of our energy production in Texas. We only count on it being 1/10 in a crisis, and in this one it was considerably less than that.  Wind energy is not cheap, especially in Texas with the production so far from the usage. If we had spent the money that we spent on wind on nuclear or coal, we would have weathered this event much better.  Even though the main problem was the natural gas pipelines.  Natural gas in great, but there is some reliability risk given that you can't store it.  You are always vulnerable to a supply disruption.  I would hope we would focus our efforts going forward on nuclear and coal. My bet would be we will continue on the same path of increasing our supply of wind energy and natural gas production. Solar does match up nicely with peak demand in Texas, and there is a place for it. Storage at this point is like trying to deploy desktop computers in 1970. We need to get there before we can even think about it.

Edited February 23, 2021 by JohnLocke

[Brisketexan 106615]

The problem with wind is the same as it has always been.  You have to back it up with fossil fuel plants since you can't rely on it. This always winds up increasing what the consumer pays for electricity.   It is about 1/4 of our energy production in Texas. We only count on it being 1/10 in a crisis, and in this one it was considerably less than that.  Wind energy is not cheap, especially in Texas with the production so far from the usage. If we had spent the money that we spent on wind on nuclear or coal, we would have weathered this event much better.  Even though the main problem was the natural gas pipelines.  Natural gas in great, but there is some reliability risk given that you can't store it.  You are always vulnerable to a supply disruption.  I would hope we would focus our efforts going forward on nuclear and coal. My bet would be we will continue on the same path of increasing our supply of wind energy and natural gas production. Solar does match up nicely with peak demand in Texas, and there is a place for it. Storage at this point is like trying to deploy desktop computers in 1970. We need to get there before we can even think about it.

Except the big hit to wind last week wasn’t that the wind didn’t blow. The problem was....the same thing that happened to gas: they froze up because they weren’t winterized. Had they been, they could have contributed material amounts of generation. Like they do in the winter in other cold climates, like Iowa.

And as for coal, forget it. Even with the cost of winterizing built in, gas is much more cost effective than coal (all of which, in Texas generation, comes by rail from Wyoming).

Our near-future power mix should continue to include (winterized) wind and (winterized) gas. We don’t have to overthink this. We just need to stop stepping on our collective dick.