ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

[hornmpa96 2651]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

SydneyCarton - Thanks for providing insight into the REPs.

Curious to get your thoughts on this comment from the WSJ article:

“But recently, competition in Texas has been declining amid a wave of mergers in the industry. Texas is home to 2 of the nation’s largest retail energy providers, Vistra and NRG. Marketers now owned by the 2 companies accounted for three quarters of the retail electricity sold in Texas.”

Assuming some smaller REPs go bankrupt due to this event, it doesn’t seem if there is significant competition actually taking place.

[SydneyCarton 49325]

13 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

SydneyCarton - Thanks for providing insight into the REPs.

Curious to get your thoughts on this comment from the WSJ article:

“But recently, competition in Texas has been declining amid a wave of mergers in the industry. Texas is home to 2 of the nation’s largest retail energy providers, Vistra and NRG. Marketers now owned by the 2 companies accounted for three quarters of the retail electricity sold in Texas.”

Assuming some smaller REPs go bankrupt due to this event, it doesn’t seem if there is significant competition actually taking place.

That's as misleading statistics. Vistra and NRG are the Parent Companies to Reliant and TXU, by the way, just for Clarification. The two big brands.

Less competition has taken place in recent years for a number of reasons, but the important things to consider are:

1.) The "less competition" being referenced is down from say 100-150 REPs to more like 50-60 REPs. Lets not pretend choice doesn't exist.
2.) About 5-6 or maybe 8 years ago, the PUC vastly increased the cash on hand it takes to start an REP. I believe when deregulated started it was something like 500k or 1 million cash on hand (I think 500). Not it's several million. I forget offhand, something like 4-5. That's much harder to raise for a startup, so less new entries means less competition.
3.) The Big Companies, NRG, Vistra, operate the way you expect big companies to operate. Big Behemoths with lots of dead weight, bureaucracy, and waste. Also a lot of leftover Regulated folks who sort of go slow and work on their own time. Call it a regulated mentality. As a result, their prices are consistently higher, and many folks pay for it because name brand. But the fact of the matter is they've been getting their asses fucking whipped by the other providers in new customer acquisition. But they have a fuck ton of money and credit, and they have quarterly goals, so what do they do? They buy up other companies and their books because their bloated bureaucracies prevent them being competitive against smaller, hungrier companies that hustle to acquire customers cheaper.

Focusing in on #2, well, the big guys with resources certainly don't mind making it harder for new guys to enter the market. Is this pressure by them so they don't have to compete as much? Well, I'd say yeah, and that's not great. At the same time, making sure any schmoe can't just get 500k and start a rep is probably also really good for consumer and the industry, so...I'd have to think harder before forming a real opinion here. I want competition, but I don't want some clown starting a REP who doesn't know what the fuck he's doing, either.

Again, it's disingenuous to imply these guys are 75% of the market after they just bought DE, and have probably acquired 1 or maybe even 2 million customers this year by buying another guy. Because they're not acquiring 75% of customer transactions themselves. It's just not a fair representation. But yeah, they keep buying companies. 

Now, if you want to argue this isn't a healthy marketplace? Maybe, but it's debatable, and lots of these guys keep selling their books starting new REP, acquiring customers because they're good at it, and getting bought by big rich guys because they can't compete. I personally think that's fine. Customers get low rates, entrepreneurs make some money.  It isn't easy but it's doable. 

Edited February 24, 2021 by SydneyCarton

[89Horn 1735]

Perhaps EIA information is not the best, but the PUCT does compile rates offerings data by classifications of kWh usage from reportings from the Retail Electric Providers in the deregulated part of Texas (ERCOT) and the monopoly bundled service providers outside of ERCOT and those exempt from competition (El Paso Electric, Southwestern Power Electric Co, Xcel Energy-SPS and Entergy Texas, plus Coops and Munis). 

The data goes all the way back year by year and month by month starting with the open of competition in the ERCOT control area of Texas. From the info provided, it is not difficult to figure out the price/kWh offerings.  I haven't dug through all the info, but the RETAIL rates appear to be close in and outside of ERCOT.  I say RETAIL because there are other inputs like Transmission and Generation charges that differ among grid control areas that complicate the calculations.  For instance, transmission rates in ERCOT are set by the PUCT and those outside of ERCOT are set at the federal level by FERC.  Generation outside of ERCOT is regulated by the PUCT but ERCOT generation is unregulated.

REPs in ERCOT info by investor owned T&D service area (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas, TNMP):

http://www.puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates/RESbill/RESbillarc.aspx

Investor owned utilities outside of ERCOT and Munis/Coops exempt from competition:

http://www.puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates/NCrate/viewdownarc.aspx

[SydneyCarton 49325]

1 hour ago, 89Horn said:

Perhaps EIA information is not the best, but the PUCT does compile rates offerings data by classifications of kWh usage from reportings from the Retail Electric Providers in the deregulated part of Texas (ERCOT) and the monopoly bundled service providers outside of ERCOT and those exempt from competition (El Paso Electric, Southwestern Power Electric Co, Xcel Energy-SPS and Entergy Texas, plus Coops and Munis). 

The data goes all the way back year by year and month by month starting with the open of competition in the ERCOT control area of Texas. From the info provided, it is not difficult to figure out the price/kWh offerings.  I haven't dug through all the info, but the RETAIL rates appear to be close in and outside of ERCOT.  I say RETAIL because there are other inputs like Transmission and Generation charges that differ among grid control areas that complicate the calculations.  For instance, transmission rates in ERCOT are set by the PUCT and those outside of ERCOT are set at the federal level by FERC.  Generation outside of ERCOT is regulated by the PUCT but ERCOT generation is unregulated.

REPs in ERCOT info by investor owned T&D service area (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas, TNMP):

http://www.puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates/RESbill/RESbillarc.aspx

Investor owned utilities outside of ERCOT and Munis/Coops exempt from competition:

http://www.puc.texas.gov/industry/electric/rates/NCrate/viewdownarc.aspx

Man I forgot some of that stuff was there. Thanks. 
 

mill look at it tomorrow I’m on kid duty. It’s still not a snapshot and parsing bills is hard to comparison. But that’s way better than EIA data. 

[YChang 3531]

The fuck? An eight minute-ish update is all we get from Guv Abbott? 

[SydneyCarton 49325]

Just now, YChang said:

The fuck? An eight minute-ish update is all we get from Guv Abbott? 

Whatd he say?

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 minute ago, YChang said:

The fuck? An eight minute-ish update is all we get from Guv Abbott? 

It was scheduled for five, so consider yourself lucky.

[YChang 3531]

In a nutshell, we’re gonna investigate the hell out of Ercot, look some of their board members already resigned, Attorney general gonna investigate, investigate, investigate, they’ll make sure energy producers winterize so this won’t happen again. God bless you and stay safe peep, I’m out. 

[YChang 3531]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

It was scheduled for five, so consider yourself lucky.

Ah, I missed that part... mea culpa. 

[89Horn 1735]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Whatd he say?

I caught the tail end.  One thing he said was that all segments of the generation mix failed.  He said it in the following order:  NG, coal, nuke, and wind and solar.  He also said there would be investigations.  He would work to ensure more generation (new?) is available so that we are not short of power going forward and will ensure that infrastructure is essentially hardened to avoid failures like what just happened.

He said it all very sternly and with a serious look on his face.  He even wagged his index finger.

[SydneyCarton 49325]

I mean joke all we want about that idiot, but at least this is generally the right outlook to have. 

[kevwun 16269]

Oh good, our corrupt and criminal  AG is going to investigate.  I feel better already

[Bama Chick 28596]

[Guest Lobo]

^

I'm not a fan of his lately, but you do know that half of all elected officials do that before a press conference, right?  Plus his mics are a full 2-3' closer to the monitors than typical podiums so they need to test a full range of input levels.  

What terrifies me about his announcements were that Ken Paxton is on top of this shit.  The two deputy AG's that worked on energy/utility law are fucking gone now thanks to him.  Two former Railroad Commission general counsels indicate Paxton is way out of his element here.  I mean, I guess I don't know what choice we have but this is not the time for amateur hour.  I'm 90% sure Paxton's gonna hold a press conference announcing his agenda and that he's bringing on Nate Paul to handle the real estate matters related to our energy grid.  

[Bama Chick 28596]

No, I’m stupid and without access to information and I’ve never heard of a sound check. /eyeroll

But by all means, let’s stop making fun of assholes because they’re just doing normal shit.

[jimmyjazz 46971]

2 hours ago, 89Horn said:

I caught the tail end.  One thing he said was that all segments of the generation mix failed.  He said it in the following order:  NG, coal, nuke, and wind and solar.  

Did he point out that solar had 100% failure at 1:50 AM CST, when the shit hit the fan?  Fucking solar.  I blame AOC.

[ChiTownDoc 21323]

14 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

No, I’m stupid and without access to information and I’ve never heard of a sound check. /eyeroll

But by all means, let’s stop making fun of assholes because they’re just doing normal shit.

I was pretty disappointed as well.  I really felt a 'hahahaaha, look, he's in a fucking wheelchair!!!!' was what we were going with.  

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

No, I’m stupid and without access to information and I’ve never heard of a sound check. /eyeroll

But by all means, let’s stop making fun of assholes because they’re just doing normal shit.

Nobody said you were stupid.  Christ almighty.  His sound checks are more dramatic and he tests more tones of voice, especially in new venues because he’s so Much closer to the monitors and the speakers are much higher up from the sound source than usual.  He has to do all that shit because he’s in a fucking wheelchair and I don’t see the point in Scott Braddock cracking wise about it.  

All the shit to give him crap over and Braddock is going with “ha ha, look the cripple who needs to test his voice out from his mini podium”.  It’s just lazy like Something Trump would do.  /rant 

I’m more interested in how Paxton is gonna fuck this up.  

[TexLonghorn 5737]

Ken Paxton is going to look into it...

...and look away from it with the other eye.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Nobody said you were stupid.  Christ almighty.  His sound checks are more dramatic and he tests more tones of voice, especially in new venues because he’s so Much closer to the monitors and the speakers are much higher up from the sound source than usual.  He has to do all that shit because he’s in a fucking wheelchair and I don’t see the point in Scott Braddock cracking wise about it.  
All the shit to give him crap over and Braddock is going with “ha ha, look the cripple who needs to test his voice out from his mini podium”.  It’s just lazy like Something Trump would do.  /rant 
I’m more interested in how Paxton is gonna fuck this up.  

“Nobody said you were stupid!”

~Proceeds to angrily mansplain the thing I already said I understood~

Got it.

[Guest Lobo]

It’s not mansplaining to point out the reason to someone why a tweet they thought was clever and funny was neither.  Braddock’s tweet wasn’t insightful or funny and you weren’t clever for posting it.  

It’d be like a Trumper laughing at Biden doing vocal warmups to keep his stutter on check on a hot mic before a speech.  It’s not funny.  That clear enough for you or am I mansplaining again?   

[Anastasis 23699]

Histrionics is an artifact of the patriarchy. 

[Anastasis 23699]

10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It’s not mansplaining to point out the reason to someone why a tweet they thought was clever and funny was neither.  Braddock’s tweet wasn’t insightful or funny and you weren’t clever for posting it.  

It’d be like a Trumper laughing at Biden doing vocal warmups to keep his stutter on check on a hot mic before a speech.  It’s not funny.  That clear enough for you or am I mansplaining again?   

But how angry are you?

[Guest Lobo]

Not angry, just tired of lazy political ‘comedy’.  Had enough of it with Trump all these years.  .  Guy tweets out guy in wheelchair doing special sound check, thinks he’s the next Trevor Noah.  

[Bookman 4754]

Is there really that much to investigate?

[Bookman 4754]

20 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

this thread has devolved in to discussion of scenery.   people need to go to jail and they won't because this event was a fundamental breakdown of the entire commercial and regulatory construct around our profit-only texas-only grid.  i'm sure it's been posted somewhere upthread but in the chaos of the last week if i missed it my apologies, everyone needs to re-read this if they haven't already because the blame game is going to get real serious as everyone tries to duck the cost of this clusterfuck

 

What criminal laws were violated?

[Bookman 4754]

On 2/23/2021 at 7:26 AM, SydneyCarton said:

Yes. Transmission “lines.” Fuel lines. They happen to be big pipes. So, pipelines. 

Had a few more conversations yesterday. From what I've heard, the problems were at the wells and processing plants, and the gas utilities simply didn't have any gas to move. This excerpt in the San Antonio paper discusses gas freezing in gathering lines:

Quote

“When we had a bunch of gas freeze out in West Texas and in gathering lines, you’ve got not as much going in and you’ve got people demanding a whole lot more, and it just shot the prices up extremely high,” said Joshua Rhodes, an energy researcher at the University of Texas-Austin.

https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/CPS-Energy-Natural-gas-behind-sky-high-costs-15977289.php

I have a conference with an oil company today that owns wells in the Eagle Ford. I'll see what I can find out about their lease/gathering lines.

Edited February 25, 2021 by Bookman

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

1 hour ago, Bookman said:

What criminal laws were violated?

Ones that don't exist but probably should.

[YChang 3531]

Hearings today at 9am

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/texas-house-senate-ercot/?utm_campaign=trib-texting&utm_content=hearings&utm_medium=text&utm_source=subtext

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

19 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Don't negotiate your cable bill for 5 years and see what it looks like compared to now. 

Bottom Line: EIA Data in Texas fucking sucks and is worthless. It's the Donkey Cigar/FakeBusiness kind of disingenuous. 

I don't really have an issue with what you said.  But people are stupid, news at 11 (10 if you're central or you'll miss it).  Shit like electricity and water should NOT get to bend stupid people over and fuck them in the ass, even if they're stupid.  It's wrong.  

[softlynow 1893]

2 hours ago, Bookman said:

What criminal laws were violated?

If we had a functional mob, we wouldn't need laws to get justice. Texans aren't what they talk themselves up to be. Everything's bigger but our balls, apparently. We repeatedly take it dry and ask for more. By the time the next national abortion/gay rights/trans rights/immigration/gun rights/police brutality story takes over the news all the anger and willingness to hold Texas Pubs accountable will be gone.

The Capitol should be surrounded by angry people demanding heads on pikes.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

 

[The Royal We 3090]

4 hours ago, Bookman said:

Had a few more conversations yesterday. From what I've heard, the problems were at the wells and processing plants, and the gas utilities simply didn't have any gas to move. This excerpt in the San Antonio paper discusses gas freezing in gathering lines:

https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/CPS-Energy-Natural-gas-behind-sky-high-costs-15977289.php

I have a conference with an oil company today that owns wells in the Eagle Ford. I'll see what I can find out about their lease/gathering lines.

I heard from a client yesterday that their entire field in the EF froze up last week.  They are relatively new and only operate about 10 wells at the moment, so a small sample size, but the bottom line is the feedstock for the NG plants (among other things) let them down.  I don't know how you get around that at the field level - seems like it would be cost prohibitive to winterize every single wellhead/facility in the EF.  But maybe not, I really know fuck-all about what materials you would need to keep wellheads and gathering lines/small treatment plants from freezing up.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

14 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I heard from a client yesterday that their entire field in the EF froze up last week.  They are relatively new and only operate about 10 wells at the moment, so a small sample size, but the bottom line is the feedstock for the NG plants (among other things) let them down.  I don't know how you get around that at the field level - seems like it would be cost prohibitive to winterize every single wellhead/facility in the EF.  But maybe not, I really know fuck-all about what materials you would need to keep wellheads and gathering lines/small treatment plants from freezing up.

You can't/wouldn't do that necessarily, but you should fucking account for it on your grid total.  Not you personally   

[89Horn 1735]

13 hours ago, TexLonghorn said:

Ken Paxton is going to look into it...

...and look away from it with the other eye.

His other eye won't even do that.  It's too lazy.

[The Royal We 3090]

11 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

You can't/wouldn't do that necessarily, but you should fucking account for it on your grid total.  Not you personally   

Absolutely. 

I was mainly sharing my client's experience last week because I think Bookman was originally skeptical that any pipelines froze.  I guess you could argue the semantics that it was gathering lines and not transmission lines that froze (AFAIK), but the feedstock having issues is the main thing that matters IMO.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

I don't know how you get around that at the field level - seems like it would be cost prohibitive to winterize every single wellhead/facility in the EF.  But maybe not, I really know fuck-all about what materials you would need to keep wellheads and gathering lines/small treatment plants from freezing up.

I’ve worked exclusively Gulf and International offshore my whole career, but some close to shore shallow water facilities saw freeze ups of their dry-tree (above waterline) wellheads.

Without downhole chemical treatment of methanol or LDHI you’re going to see freezing of wellhead at single deg F temps (dependent on individual formation chemistry obviously).

I’ve still yet to see anything in writing or word of mouth from peers documenting “gathering pipelines freezing” and find that hard to believe. Wellheads and well choke valves freezing, yes. Compressors and generators that run on untreated, “wet”, or unheated field gas, yes. Compressors and pumping stations that are powered by ERCOT that got blacked out affecting pipeline flow rates, sure.

But until I see something different, I’m of the opinion that “gathering and transmission pipelines lines freezing solid” is a quick way for the press and RRC to summarize the problem for layman and wasn’t an actuality even in above ground northern panhandle fields.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

Absolutely. 
I was mainly sharing my client's experience last week because I think Bookman was originally skeptical that any pipelines froze.  I guess you could argue the semantics that it was gathering lines and not transmission lines that froze (AFAIK), but the feedstock having issues is the main thing that matters IMO.

This. Should have caught up on thread before commenting.

[The Royal We 3090]

3 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

I’ve worked exclusively Gulf and International offshore my whole career, but some close to shore shallow water facilities saw freeze ups of their dry-tree (above waterline) wellheads.

Without downhole chemical treatment of methanol or LDHI you’re going to see freezing of wellhead at single deg F temps (dependent on individual formation chemistry obviously).

I’ve still yet to see anything in writing or word of mouth from peers documenting “gathering pipelines freezing” and find that hard to believe. Wellheads and well choke valves freezing, yes. Compressors and generators that run on untreated, “wet”, or unheated field gas, yes. Compressors and pumping stations that are powered by ERCOT that got blacked out affecting pipeline flow rates, sure.

But until I see something different, I’m of the opinion that “gathering and transmission pipelines lines freezing solid” is a quick way for the press and RRC to summarize the problem for layman and wasn’t an actuality even in above ground northern panhandle fields.

 

Good info.  I had a client with GOM assets tell me they were shut in because of the temps last week too, but like you said, I'm not sure if it was due to wellhead issues/heater treaters/amines/compression, etc.

They couldn't get their product out of the ground and were calling me asking if they had business interruption coverage (they don't).

[Bookman 4754]

12 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Absolutely. 

I was mainly sharing my client's experience last week because I think Bookman was originally skeptical that any pipelines froze.

I wasn't skeptical of anything. I've been trying piece together what exactly happened.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

14 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

Absolutely. 

I was mainly sharing my client's experience last week because I think Bookman was originally skeptical that any pipelines froze.  I guess you could argue the semantics that it was gathering lines and not transmission lines that froze (AFAIK), but the feedstock having issues is the main thing that matters IMO.

Haha, yeah they freeze, I used to have to change the fucking magic marker points out on the charts and don't even get me started on soap sticks.  I'm just confounded on the ignorance of most of our "elected" officials when it comes to shit like this.  They aren't Texan.  They aren't shit. They are fucking pretenders.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

I wasn't skeptical of anything. I've been trying piece together what exactly happened.

SitRep: FUBAR

If you find something with details please share it here or Oil Baron thread, but I’ve been looking for a few days and doubt we ever get conclusive specific reporting. Too many specific things went wrong in too many locals.

Gas followed ideal gas law and hydrates formed. Shit we need powered lost power. Shit that should have been winterized for a 10yr or 100yr storm wasn’t winterized. Maybe it’s a pressure control valve at substation XYZ. Maybe it’s the 3 best producing wells for field XYZ. Maybe it’s gauge 123XYZ that caused interlock and emergency shutdown.

[C-Man 27685]

According to this, last week's power fuckup is going to cost Texas $90B. And 90% of it was avoidable.

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/business-news/losses-for-texas-deep-freeze-revealed-247584.aspx?utm_source=Pinpointe&utm_medium=20210225&utm_campaign=WIBA-MorningBriefing&utm_content=55D7E01A-A2EE-4DD3-8B33-867AD97B08C1&tu=55D7E01A-A2EE-4DD3-8B33-867AD97B08C1

Quote

Texas’s deep freeze and power outages last week could cost as much as $90 billion in losses, and most of it could have been avoided, according to Enki Research disaster modeler Chuck Watson.

Arctic cold brought ice and sub-zero temperatures across Texas, disrupting the state’s grid and its ability to produce electricity. A lack of power meant homes and businesses were left without heat during the coldest days of the season.

Probably about 90% of the losses could have been avoided with preventive measures, Watson said, citing a Feral Energy Regulatory Commission report on the state’s previous crippling cold blast a decade ago.

“To me a huge part of the story is that a few hundred million of mitigation investment over the last decade or so, since the 2011 FERC report, and a bit more planning could have probably prevented 90% of the damage,” he said.

Of his $80 billion to $90 billion estimate for direct and indirect losses, there will probably be about $35 billion in physical damages, such as water damage from burst pipes. Of that, about $20 billion will be covered by insurance.

The estimate includes $45 billion in economic losses from impacts to government accounts and disruptions to supply chains, he said.

The frigid blast that toppled the Texas electric grid was part of one of the toughest winters across the entire Northern Hemisphere in 10 years, said Todd Crawford, lead meteorologists with the Weather Co.

In December, historic cold swept across Asia and then a sudden stratospheric warming event “reshuffled the pattern and amped it up to aim the coldest weather into the central US and parts of Europe.”

“Much different winter than we’ve seen in a very long time,” Crawford said. “We haven’t had an enormous hemispheric-wide extreme blocking pattern like this in 10 years.”

Copyright Bloomberg News

 

[NWBuck 8619]

7 minutes ago, C-Man said:

According to this, last week's power fuckup is going to cost Texas $90B. And 90% of it was avoidable.

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/business-news/losses-for-texas-deep-freeze-revealed-247584.aspx?utm_source=Pinpointe&utm_medium=20210225&utm_campaign=WIBA-MorningBriefing&utm_content=55D7E01A-A2EE-4DD3-8B33-867AD97B08C1&tu=55D7E01A-A2EE-4DD3-8B33-867AD97B08C1

 

How much of that will be reconciled via state or federal funds (socialism)? 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10762]

20 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

SitRep: FUBAR

If you find something with details please share it here or Oil Baron thread, but I’ve been looking for a few days and doubt we ever get conclusive specific reporting. Too many specific things went wrong in too many locals.

Gas followed ideal gas law and hydrates formed. Shit we need powered lost power. Shit that should have been winterized for a 10yr or 100yr storm wasn’t winterized. Maybe it’s a pressure control valve at substation XYZ. Maybe it’s the 3 best producing wells for field XYZ. Maybe it’s gauge 123XYZ that caused interlock and emergency shutdown.

 

Yep and people seem to think only ERCOT had these issues when other regions - SPP and MISO (adjoining grids) also had similar issues including having to shed load and tap reserves and prepare for possibly more drastic measures.  SPP and MISO are more cold climate, have to winterize and yet still had issues or Nat Gas freezing, turbines stopping, etc. ERCOT just happened to have it worse and across its entire coverage area.  These other areas were close to similar ERCOT situations, but just didn't cross over that fine line between ok and o-shit.. 

People also mention "smart grid" and interconnects like they are only a positive, but the disconnected, sneaker-net grid system in the United States is one of the best defenses we have and have had against electrical grid attacks.

[Dahobbs 18185]

1 hour ago, The Royal We said:

I heard from a client yesterday that their entire field in the EF froze up last week.  They are relatively new and only operate about 10 wells at the moment, so a small sample size, but the bottom line is the feedstock for the NG plants (among other things) let them down.  I don't know how you get around that at the field level - seems like it would be cost prohibitive to winterize every single wellhead/facility in the EF.  But maybe not, I really know fuck-all about what materials you would need to keep wellheads and gathering lines/small treatment plants from freezing up.

 

29 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

SitRep: FUBAR

If you find something with details please share it here or Oil Baron thread, but I’ve been looking for a few days and doubt we ever get conclusive specific reporting. Too many specific things went wrong in too many locals.

Gas followed ideal gas law and hydrates formed. Shit we need powered lost power. Shit that should have been winterized for a 10yr or 100yr storm wasn’t winterized. Maybe it’s a pressure control valve at substation XYZ. Maybe it’s the 3 best producing wells for field XYZ. Maybe it’s gauge 123XYZ that caused interlock and emergency shutdown.

 

In continuation of our previous conversation, I'll point out that it is almost certainly easier (and cheaper) to winterize a windmill or solar farm than it is to winterize all the elements needed to ensure power flows from a natural gas plant. So, maybe what we need is more renewable energy to increase the reliability of the grid. Natural gas should certainly remain a big part of our power generation, particularly for the lifetime of current plants. But I'm not convinced that we need a ton of new gas plants as opposed to efforts to make sure the current ones can operate combined investment in energy storage systems. Related note: https://www.powermag.com/vistra-energizes-massive-1-2-gwh-battery-system-at-california-gas-plant/. Systems like that can help both renewables and gas plants to ensure power is available in the event of fueling problems (which is ultimately what sidelined both wind and gas during this event). 

 

[Dahobbs 18185]

8 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

People also mention "smart grid" and interconnects like they are only a positive, but the disconnected, sneaker-net grid system in the United States is one of the best defenses we have and have had against electrical grid attacks.

Is it? I don't have enough knowledge on the subject to know, but it sounds curiously like security through obscurity, which is widely derided in cybersecurity. What is it about the system that provides any substantial defense against electrical grid attacks? Is it that it prevents attacks from targeting all three major US grids at a single point? 

[Llano Estacado 1257]

In continuation of our previous conversation, I'll point out that it is almost certainly easier (and cheaper) to winterize a windmill or solar farm than it is to winterize all the elements needed to ensure power flows from a natural gas plant. So, maybe what we need is more renewable energy to increase the reliability of the grid. Natural gas should certainly remain a big part of our power generation, particularly for the lifetime of current plants. But I'm not convinced that we need a ton of new gas plants as opposed to efforts to make sure the current ones can operate combined investment in energy storage systems. Related note: https://www.powermag.com/vistra-energizes-massive-1-2-gwh-battery-system-at-california-gas-plant/. Systems like that can help both renewables and gas plants to ensure power is available in the event of fueling problems (which is ultimately what sidelined both wind and gas during this event). 

Good stuff. Don’t think either of us is writing policy so we can continue to disagree. Not exactly, “wait for the Wolf, who should be coming directly” but definitely good stuff.

To my point from that article:
“Citing a June 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory study, Will McNamara, Sandia Grid Energy Storage policy analyst, noted about 150 GW of the nation’s 261-GW peaking fleet “is likely to retire over the next 20 years, creating the potential for about 28 GW of 4-hour battery storage that could serve as peaking capacity.”

...so 150 GW peaking generation offline over next 20yrs to be replaced by 28 GW for 4hr. This arithmetic is my concern dude.

Can’t recall which poster had questions on it, but that article also references the Australian Origin Energy battery projects I had remembered, at 1.2 GW and total site capabilities of 2.8 GW storage. So there are several projects around the world shooting for 1000MW+ storage goals over the next 2-5yrs.

[Dahobbs 18185]

2 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

 

Good stuff. Don’t think either of us is writing policy so we can continue to disagree. Not exactly, “wait for the Wolf, who should be coming directly” but definitely good stuff.

To my point from that article:
“Citing a June 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory study, Will McNamara, Sandia Grid Energy Storage policy analyst, noted about 150 GW of the nation’s 261-GW peaking fleet “is likely to retire over the next 20 years, creating the potential for about 28 GW of 4-hour battery storage that could serve as peaking capacity.”

...so 150 GW peaking generation offline over next 20yrs to be replaced by 28 GW for 4hr. This arithmetic is my concern dude.

Can’t recall which poster had questions on it, but that article also references the Australian Origin Energy battery projects I had remembered, at 1.2 GW and total site capabilities of 2.8 GW storage. So there are several projects around the world shooting for 1000MW+ storage goals over the next 2-5yrs.

 

I think our disagreement is fairly mild. I really don't have an issue with natural gas at all, but I do question its relevance 30 years from now. I'd be curious why that particular quote limited the potential market at 28 GW, particularly given this statement:

Quote

 

McNamara also noted that owing to a steady decline in the cost of power from batteries over the last decade—the cost for a standalone ESS now averages about $209/kWh, he said—the cost of using a state-of-the-art ESS is “extremely competitive compared to running a fossil fuel peaker plant.”

Beyond the cost advantage, “batteries have much faster response time—they can virtually ramp up and down instantly by following signals from the grid operator. Gas peakers can barely match the flexibility and responsiveness time of batteries,”

 

I suppose the need for longer power generation is better served by fossil fuel peakers, but that seems to be assuming limited advancement in battery technology. More power dense batteries are coming and will be able to run longer. Given that peakers have a low capacity factor essentially by definition, at some point energy storage systems will simply have enough energy to make them moot. I mean, just take a look at the capacity factors for fossil fuel plants other than coal and combined cycle gas:https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_a

What is the average amount a time a fossil fuel peaker runs consecutively? 

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10762]

26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Is it? I don't have enough knowledge on the subject to know, but it sounds curiously like security through obscurity, which is widely derided in cybersecurity. What is it about the system that provides any substantial defense against electrical grid attacks? Is it that it prevents attacks from targeting all three major US grids at a single point? 

Yeah, it's same as trying to take down 3 computers that aren't connected vs 3 that are networked together. The 3 separate are harder and attack on one might be detected in time for others to prevent.  Also same being they don't all have the same equipment or control systems. Just limiting what could be affected in a single attack.   I agree it's pretty low tech, but the potential of taking the entire US electrical system down at once is definitely lower.  The smarter and more interconnected the grid gets the more possible that becomes. 

A year ago a US natural gas pipeline was shutdown for 2 days because of a cyber attack. Luckily pipeline control was company specific and so it stopped there and didn't grow.