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ERCOT, PUC, and deregulation got us here

cactusflinthead

By cactusflinthead
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High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter

I was driving around just now, listening to NPR, and they called out Abbot for his bullshit. I believe the direct quote was something like "Governor Abbot falsely claimed renewable energy was the caus

Hugo Stiglitz
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Bullneck
Bullneck

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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Here's my $.02. I can understand need for "rolling blackouts" and I would be more than willing to deal with 8 hours sans power for as needed to help out community etc

My house hasn't had power since 2 am Monday morning, it's still out as of now with no word as to when it will come back online. Fortunately I can afford to go to a hotel this week and while I am sure my tankless water heaters are fucked and I will have plumbing shit to deal with that I am sure the plumbers won't mark up due to demand 🙂 I am fortunate in that I can swing whatever repairs I need.

What is BS is why aren't people being shut off and on per some "shared pain" plan? I am absolutely going to invest in a whole home generator once the hooplah from this dies down as I have 0 faith in ERCOT, COA and all the other shitheads involved in this.

Just a fucking joke. I predict my power doesn't return til Friday.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19094

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Just can’t seem to put my finger on what the problem was and think this was incredibly unpredictable... I mean who ever could see such a thing happening?
Yep. I remember that. Granted, it is technically the responsibility of the generation unit owner to weatherization it, but Ercot could require it. Again, there is zero support in the Texas market for capital expenditures on facilities due to the lack of a capacity market.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104644

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Here are some articles about what is going on from a power and nat gas market side.  
This is almost exactly like the Polar Vortex in 2014 that say NY, NE, and Chicago get fucking hammered.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/texas-power-retailers-in-face-of-freeze-please-leave-us?sref=knoriXqz
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-15/natural-gas-skyrockets-again-to-500-as-blackouts-spread-in-u-s?srnd=premium&sref=knoriXqz
ERCOT has been flirting with adding a capacity market.  That needs to happen pronto.  The energy only market does nothing to incentivize improvements.  

While getting some help from the feds would be nice, I think that ERCOT needs to change its market structure.  This isn't a one time improvement.  They need to add a capacity market, rather than just being energy only.  Also, they need to remove all price caps and let the energy market clear.  Capping electricity at 9k per MWH means that during high demand events, demand will always outstrip supply because the market clearing price is falsely low.

On the green energy front, it isn't green energy that is causing this issue.  It is contributing as Wind is underperforming due to weather, but this is always the issue with wind.  I am not sure why ERCOT would have anticipated as much wind generation as they did KNOWING what the weather forecast was.  
For those that do not know, gas fired plants do not store nat gas on site.  It is delivered daily.  If there are issues with the gas lines (which there are), then this issue is outside of their control.  

Eh, you want the best folks on the board.  Both the Chair and Vice Chair seem very, very qualified.  And the Board isn't going to have input on the day to day.  Now, they should look into changing the overall market structure.  
A lot of people are getting angry, for good reason.  But the truth is, ERCOT picked it's market structure, and it has been known to be stressed by extreme cold.  They have been talking about changing that structure for years, but have yet to do so.  Any change to the market will necessarily cause energy prices to go up.  When folks are paying really high summer electric bills, how many of those people will be cursing ERCOT for that change?  They are almost damned in any situation.
 

Nonsense.  Coal plants are working fine right now. So is nuclear.  The more you increase the production of your energy to unreliable sources, the more prone you become to outages. It's not complicated.  And here we are.

Wrong.  Plants of all types are having instrumentation freezes.  Are you really this stupid?

I also agree with this, though I do think Texas needs to have a capacity market.  And I also am a believer in nuclear power as good baseline generation.

I nearly lost it on my Mom today.  I called to check on my folks after they didn’t respond to my texts.  Mom answers and says that she and my Dad and my brother and his two kids are doing fine but are dealing with rolling blackouts.  
 
Doesn’t take two seconds after letting me know the family is OK before she jumps into a rant about how some idiot decided to shift 25% of the power generation capacity to wind turbines and that they are all frozen and that is what is causing the power issues.
 
200.gif
It just makes me ragey that she can’t get through two minutes of conversation anymore without spewing the latest talking points from her Republican women’s club.  

Yep. I remember that. Granted, it is technically the responsibility of the generation unit owner to weatherization it, but Ercot could require it. Again, there is zero support in the Texas market for capital expenditures on facilities due to the lack of a capacity market.


Just quoting all of these to let you know that Penelope is an alpha dog bad bitch and is putting on a clinic. Seriously, everything she’s posting is spot-on.

We created a system that incentivizes only short term profit, at the expense of long-term investment in generation resources (both in constructing them and in spending the money to make them resilient).

Anyone who has worked in the ERCOT market in any way (I have, but clearly I’m not a market designer - but I worked on utility transition plans at the inception of dereg, and continued to be involved in ERCOT-related issues) has seen the obvious capacity problems. This result was guaranteed under our current market design. And yeah, green energy has its challenges, and we need to properly account for it in the mix....and one way to do that for now is to add generation for capacity.

So, y’all just listen to Penelope - she’s spitting some simple and clear truths at you.
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Yeah, but according to Trumper/MAGA logic...if the turbines have frozen up on us...then in about two weeks...we should see a marked decrease in cancer cases, right?  

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10148

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31 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here's my $.02. I can understand need for "rolling blackouts" and I would be more than willing to deal with 8 hours sans power for as needed to help out community etc

My house hasn't had power since 2 am Monday morning, it's still out as of now with no word as to when it will come back online. Fortunately I can afford to go to a hotel this week and while I am sure my tankless water heaters are fucked and I will have plumbing shit to deal with that I am sure the plumbers won't mark up due to demand 🙂 I am fortunate in that I can swing whatever repairs I need.

What is BS is why aren't people being shut off and on per some "shared pain" plan? I am absolutely going to invest in a whole home generator once the hooplah from this dies down as I have 0 faith in ERCOT, COA and all the other shitheads involved in this.

Just a fucking joke. I predict my power doesn't return til Friday.

The grid in incredible complicated. People think it's just add more etc but it's not. Keeping things in phase and balance are as much art as science. One mistep could cause a chain reaction causing full blackout scenario. Then people won't be on here talking about hours or days as we would be looking at potentially months to get replacement parts from overseas.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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30 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

lack of a capacity market.

PW is right. 

  • What happened to the capacity market in energy?
  • Too bespoke to provide any useful data to trade on?
  • Or is arbitrage the intended target? 

Polar Vortex 2021 (and so many other baby black swans) expose weaknesses in the dominant neoliberal economic model (implemented by late-Nixon, Ford and Carter, but glamorized by Reagan, and followed by Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump, and Biden). 

The national economic infrastructure needs an update to catch up with modernity. 

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8275

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19 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The grid in incredible complicated. People think it's just add more etc but it's not. Keeping things in phase and balance are as much art as science. One mistep could cause a chain reaction causing full blackout scenario. Then people won't be on here talking about hours or days as we would be looking at potentially months to get replacement parts from overseas.

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6576

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18 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The grid in incredible complicated. People think it's just add more etc but it's not. Keeping things in phase and balance are as much art as science. One mistep could cause a chain reaction causing full blackout scenario. Then people won't be on here talking about hours or days as we would be looking at potentially months to get replacement parts from overseas.

I don't at all pretend to understand it, it is crazy that some folks can be out for potentially 4-5 days and others never go out at all. (from a residential perspective)

Just such a pain in the ass. Again for me it is boiling down to 1st world problems as I did get to a hotel and I will be able to fix (barring super major) damage to house if any. I really feel for those that cannot get out and are resorting to using cars to stay warm. My family and I are safe and ultimately that's what counts.

Just really frustrating.

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Hank Scorpio

Hank Scorpio 17723

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I’ve got no power or water and the only generator I have is being used to power my laptop so I can look at Surly. My family keeps begging me to let them plug in a hot plate but I explained that Sark is on a recruiting tear and I need by the minute updates. 

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FOXHOUND

FOXHOUND 1014

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3 hours ago, Goredho said:

The ex-mayor of Colorado City, TX says, "Let them heat cake!"

Screen-Shot-2021-02-16-at-4-22-56-PM.png

https://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/news/ex-colorado-city-mayor-catching-heat-for-comments-about-citizens-affected-by-cold/

That guy is a troglodyte whose lineage learned to walk upright just three generations ago. What a fucking moron.
 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27443

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31 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The grid in incredible complicated. People think it's just add more etc but it's not. Keeping things in phase and balance are as much art as science. One mistep could cause a chain reaction causing full blackout scenario. Then people won't be on here talking about hours or days as we would be looking at potentially months to get replacement parts from overseas.

An electricity grid should be all science and no art. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Did that guy really say, "think outside the box to supply water to your family."  

I think we just witnessed the first TED Talk for MAGA Retards, by MAGA Retards.  

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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So according to Abbott, W&S make up 10% of the energy supply and are the reason we lost 40% of our energy output.  

Somebody wanna call Thujone and have him put Paul Rudd in a fucking wheelchair?  

10% of the time...it doesn't work 40% everytime.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104644

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PW is right. 
  • What happened to the capacity market in energy?
  • Too bespoke to provide any useful data to trade on?
  • Or is arbitrage the intended target? 
Polar Vortex 2021 (and so many other baby black swans) expose weaknesses in the dominant neoliberal economic model (implemented by late-Nixon, Ford and Carter, but glamorized by Reagan, and followed by Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump, and Biden). 
The national economic infrastructure needs an update to catch up with modernity. 


Someone roll that asshole into traffic 

We’ve chosen profit for a very few over any good for literally everyone else. Pure late stage capitalism.
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Okie State

Okie State 3788

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Team GQP has their gameplan now.  They have their scapegoats (Green New Deal, AOC, Biden, wind, solar) to bail them out, even though none of that was the culprit.  And it will fucking work.
 
Someone will introduce legislation in the coming weeks banning windmills in Texas.  
 
 
The talking points have already been distributed to the masses and are making the rounds.
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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Just now, Okie State said:
12 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:
Team GQP has their gameplan now.  They have their scapegoats (Green New Deal, AOC, Biden, wind, solar) to bail them out, even though none of that was the culprit.  And it will fucking work.
 
Someone will introduce legislation in the coming weeks banning windmills in Texas.  
 
 

The talking points have already been distributed to the masses and are making the rounds.

The virus remain afoot and grows like stump-rot. 

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JohnLocke

JohnLocke 115

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15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


We’ve chosen profit for a very few over any good for literally everyone else. Pure late stage capitalism.

 

What the hell are you talking about?  For the last 25 years, we have prioritized keeping rates low.  We've avoided the expensive option of a capacity market.  We have now had the black swan event that I'm sure will make us rethink this.  15 years ago our grid likely would have handled this.  Now it can't.  The main contributor was an inability to get natural gas, but having 10% of our overall capacity wiped out with frozen wind turbines was a kick in the butt too.  Nearly 80% of our power coming from wind and natural gas just makes the system less reliable.  What happened this week is completely unacceptable.  We've been out on this limb for a while, but Ercot always dodged the bullet and made it work. Now it has completely blown up in the most spectacular fashion possible. The net result is you and I and everyone else are going to pay significantly higher electricity rates in the future so we can guarantee this won't happen again.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104644

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“Listen up libtard soy boys, this is how you own Big Water with facts and logic!  You can keep your Bill Gates microchip infused socialist city government water.  Real PATRIOTS buy Freedom Water - sold in 2 gallon buckets by Jim Bakker.   Freedom Water has electrolytes, which is what plants crave, so it can be used for drinking and for gardening.  It’s also infused with a 1:1 mixture of hydroxychloroquine.
Stay Covid free and stick it to the libs with Freedom Water!  Call in the next 5 minutes, and you’ll receive an Eric Trump autographed sippy cup for free!”

The chances of that marketing happening within a month...somewhere north of 100%.
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31302

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4 hours ago, GW Hayduke said:

I wasn’t thinking about federal oversight. I was thinking about the deregulated marketplace that occurred 1999 or 2002 or whenever and how that led to the problems we are having

I think the central thing we're going to find is that former "public utilities" like TU Electric have been financially struggling.  And all of them are probably over-lean.  There are a variety of causes of that, but decoupling energy sales from generation and distribution is one aspect of it.

And those former public utilities and other plant operators screwed the moose on preparing for this.  They might have anyway, to a greater or lesser degree.

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