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Texas -- a failed state


Brisketexan

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8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The 2023 population estimates from the Census for states came out yesterday. In the past, I had the hope that Texas's growing population and the influx of folks moving here from other states would moderate our politics.

But what seems to have been borne out is that a slim majority of those migrants tend to be more Republican-leaning, and a goodly portion of those "conservatives" are straight-up kooks and fascists. So, at this point, we can all assume they alone won't save us from the worst among us.

Then we have the matter of the redistricting process where the GOP majority in the lege has shown no shyness in repressing the non-Anglo and/or liberal vote, either through splitting them up among several districts or concentrating them into tightly-bound homogenous ones.

Anyway, this is all a preface for the maps and tables posted below and makes me fear what the growth of Texas and Florida's populations will do to our national politics.

image.thumb.png.2aab0a712dc015259e5727bb279d69a9.png

image.png.9029840177f1d1fec8d932020f75f7af.png

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https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

 

And here's the kicker if the 2020-2022 trend continues (NOT UPDATED FOR NEWEST 2023 DATA). Some of the shrinking population in California and the Midwest moderated/reversed in 2023 (see the first map above), but it still gives me pause.

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https://thearp.org/blog/apportionment/2030-forecasted-apportionment/

 

tldr; this (shitty, fascist fucks) is who we are.  Stop saying "we're better than this."  We're not.  And it's only going to get worse.

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19 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The 2023 population estimates from the Census for states came out yesterday. In the past, I had the hope that Texas's growing population and the influx of folks moving here from other states would moderate our politics.

But what seems to have been borne out is that a slim majority of those migrants tend to be more Republican-leaning, and a goodly portion of those "conservatives" are straight-up kooks and fascists. So, at this point, we can all assume they alone won't save us from the worst among us.

Then we have the matter of the redistricting process where the GOP majority in the lege has shown no shyness in repressing the non-Anglo and/or liberal vote, either through splitting them up among several districts or concentrating them into tightly-bound homogenous ones.

Anyway, this is all a preface for the maps and tables posted below and makes me fear what the growth of Texas and Florida's populations will do to our national politics.

image.thumb.png.2aab0a712dc015259e5727bb279d69a9.png

image.png.9029840177f1d1fec8d932020f75f7af.png

image.png.cda6ddc82cfe4793a608896142e913d1.png

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-trends-return-to-pre-pandemic-norms.html

 

And here's the kicker if the 2020-2022 trend continues (NOT UPDATED FOR NEWEST 2023 DATA). Some of the shrinking population in California and the Midwest moderated/reversed in 2023 (see the first map above), but it still gives me pause.

image.thumb.png.2eea3faac2e2892e11ef1444c5b10325.png

https://thearp.org/blog/apportionment/2030-forecasted-apportionment/

 

Liberals aren't moving from the coasts to Texas.  They're right wingers moving from the Inland Empire to some far flung exurb like Melissa where they can park their F-350 in front of their cow pasture house and within two years fly a Texas flag from their treeless yard.  

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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Liberals aren't moving from the coasts to Texas.  They're right wingers moving from the Inland Empire to some far flung exurb like Melissa where they can park their F-350 in front of their cow pasture house and within two years fly a Texas flag from their treeless yard.  

Yep, or blue collar rust belt refugees moving to SE Texas to work in refineries.

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7 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Liberals aren't moving from the coasts to Texas.  They're right wingers moving from the Inland Empire to some far flung exurb like Melissa where they can park their F-350 in front of their cow pasture house and within two years fly a Texas flag from their treeless yard.  

I didn't say they were, but not all who move here are politically motivated. Some are sure, and I pointed out that a good portion are kooks and fascists. Also, I spoke in the past tense when talking about how I used to think they'd save us (some of that was skewed by living in Austin and knowing several liberals who'd recently relocated here from the Northeast).

5 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Yep, or blue collar rust belt refugees moving to SE Texas to work in refineries.

This is what I meant by "Republican-leaning". A year or so ago, I read that, because of O&G, Texas was one of the very few states that had a growing manufacturing base that provided good-paying blue-collar jobs, so, yeah, there is that pipeline in addition to the others.

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35 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Liberals aren't moving from the coasts to Texas.  They're right wingers moving from the Inland Empire to some far flung exurb like Melissa where they can park their F-350 in front of their cow pasture house and within two years fly a Texas flag from their treeless yard.  

All true, but with that said, the Texas GOP has far better access to polling data than the general public, including social media data, and all kinds of analytics in general drilling down to where new votes are coming from, and who the new voters are, etc.

The fact that the Texas GOP is pushing things like an in-state electoral college, that Abbott and the Republicans in the Texas Legislature want to take over Harris County elections, that in general Republicans in Texas want to make it harder to vote (limiting polling times, removing polling locations, etc.) means that they are seeing trends that have them scared shitless.

We are all staring at census information that is extremely broad, but the Texas GOP has data showing what suburbs/towns/zipcodes could flip and when they could flip (within a 2-3 year window).

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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

All true, but with that said, the Texas GOP has far better access to polling data than the general public, including social media data, and all kinds of analytics in general drilling down to where new votes are coming from, and who the new voters are, etc.

The fact that the Texas GOP is pushing things like an in-state electoral college, that Abbott and the Republicans in the Texas Legislature want to take over Harris County elections, that in general Republicans in Texas want to make it harder to vote (limiting polling times, removing polling locations, etc.) means that they are seeing trends that have them scared shitless.

We are all staring at census information that is extremely broad, but the Texas GOP has data showing what suburbs/towns/zipcodes could flip and when they could flip (within a 2-3 year window).

atomheart stahp. The GOP are always scared but that's just who they are, it doesn't mean the see a damned thing encouraging for their opposition. They have power and they work to cement it forever, I don't think it's deeper than that.

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1 hour ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

 They have power and they work to cement it forever, I don't think it's deeper than that.

They are trying to move pretty fast to put themselves in charge of Harris County elections ahead of 2024, and trying to cut the number of polling places.

It allows Jane Nelson to take over Harris County elections for the 2024 Presidential election.  That's not normal.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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4 hours ago, bolverk said:

I didn't say they were, but not all who move here are politically motivated. Some are sure, and I pointed out that a good portion are kooks and fascists. Also, I spoke in the past tense when talking about how I used to think they'd save us (some of that was skewed by living in Austin and knowing several liberals who'd recently relocated here from the Northeast).

This is what I meant by "Republican-leaning". A year or so ago, I read that, because of O&G, Texas was one of the very few states that had a growing manufacturing base that provided good-paying blue-collar jobs, so, yeah, there is that pipeline in addition to the others.

No, you didn't say that but that's the national media narrative.  The conventional wisdom is this blue wave is moving to Texas from CA and that's not true at all.  Just drive around the suburbs and look at all the fuckery.

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

No, you didn't say that but that's the national media narrative.  The conventional wisdom is this blue wave is moving to Texas from CA and that's not true at all.  Just drive around the suburbs and look at all the fuckery.

To rebut a bit, but I wouldn’t overly infer broad demographic and voting changes because a few assholes in the suburbs want to make absolutely sure all the neighbors know their politics.  
 

I don’t know if there’s data yet to support this, but I would guess the majority of immigration is center left or “independent” (quotes because I’m a skeptical of anyone describing themselves as such), they just don’t fly flags or put up yard signs for that.  

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We don't really know what it is as Texas is a state of non-voters.

Beto smashed turnout expectations in 2018 and Republicans came out of the woodwork to match. There are Republicans who don’t vote here because they view it as pointless just like Democrats. Polls routinely get decently accurate results from a few hundred or a thousand likely voters. Half of eligible voters showing up is a big enough sample size to know where the state stands.
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On 12/4/2023 at 1:45 PM, texasdago said:

This guy?  And... am I seeing his IG account name correctly?

https://www.instagram.com/civil_rights_lawyer/?hl=en

I have to say, I'm quite impressed with his choice of acting roles in community theater.

Ha. That guy was a lawyer at a firm where I clerked one summer in law school. Odd bird to say the least, even 35 years ago. 

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Liberals aren't moving from the coasts to Texas.  They're right wingers moving from the Inland Empire to some far flung exurb like Melissa where they can park their F-350 in front of their cow pasture house and within two years fly a Texas flag from their treeless yard.  

It’s hard to say for sure because there’s so little data but just looking at political trends it does seem like AZ, GA, and NC are doing more of the importing of garden variety liberal/moderate folks from NY/CA/wherever that are moving primarily because they seek lower COL. There’s some of that in TX because people can find good jobs here, but TX and FL seem to be more beacons for disaffected Republicans. FL especially with their weaker economy, they are importing true believers.
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34 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I have come to the very simple conclusion that in order to be Republican, the main criteria is the ability to completely discard intellectual honesty.  

This more than any other factor is a necessity in being a true Republican.  You just really, really, really have to believe a lot of shit that is not true.  You have to promote a lot of shit that is not true. And you have to adamantly above all, avoid actually caring about what is or is not true.

 

I can take most any "important" issue for the GOP and show the intellectual dishonesty necessary in the political position.  Take immigration for example. The GOP controlled all three branches of the Federal Government and packed the Supreme Court.  Yet there was no effort at all to pass an immigration bill.  Because... for the GOP they main thing is having something to complain about.  When you control all the government and you fail to take any action, how can you honestly blame the other side?  It's simply intellectually dishonest.

Take the outrage of Hunter Biden!  I have no problem at all going after Hunter Biden.  But to pretend the prosecution of Hunter Biden is anything other than a selective political prosecution started by the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION is simply to be intellectually dishonest.  But let's pretend that it is not intellectually dishonest!  Now let's ask about Jared Kushner, who received $2 billion in Saudi money for a startup where he has no experience.  This after using his office representing the United States in the Trump administration to negotiate this deal.  So the Trump Crime family received $2 billion?  Gotta be outraged by that if you are even a little irked by Hunter right?  Not if you have the Republican cloak of intellectual dishonesty to protect your mind.

Let's take a look about the love of the unborn, and the sanctity of life.  Let's pretend this is a true principle of the Republican party!  How then can you explain the abusive treatment of the only children in the care of the Texas GOP year, after year, after year in the Republican designed and implemented Texas foster care system?  If the state of Texas treats foster children in a manner that would land individual parents in jail over the neglect and abuse.  Why doesn't the GOP give a fuck about these children while cheering on Abortion laws creating more unwanted children, some of whom will end up in the Texas foster System.  The solution to this? Simply use the GOP cloak of intellectual dishonestly!  With the millions of Republicans in Texas wanting more unwanted children, is it a fair question as to why Republicans are not adopting these children after they are born? (cue up intellectual dishonesty defense here)

Take any GOP issue supposedly based on "principles" and you will find the necessity of intellectual dishonestly by Republican voters and politicians.

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15 hours ago, Satchel said:

Yeah, all these republicans in Texas and in the south losing elections because of this issue. NOT. We are a hopeless nation full of idiots. 

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Quote

In 2022, the county’s entire elections department quit following harassment and threats from far-right voter fraud activists. This year, voter fraud activists in the county were hosting events featuring well-known conspiracy theorists, pushing for hand counts.

All of this for a county that votes 80% republican.

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4 hours ago, horn4life said:

the necessity of intellectual dishonesty

Solid post.

But the "intellectual concept you are describing for has been identified and fully explained. It is called "doublethink" -- the cognitive process in which a person holds two opposite, contradictory propositions and believes both to be true at the same time and in the same respect. 

Thanks to George Orwell and the masterpiece 1984

Most people think 1984 is all about Big Brother and surveillance. But the underlying ideology and mass cognition was doublethink expressed through "newspeak" (dumbed down language), powered by the Ministry of Truth. That kept the entire totalitarian Oceania/Big Bro system running.

We now have social media, which empowers doublethink and newspeak on a planetary scale, in ways that Orwell could hardly have imagined. 

One other key thing Orwell pointed out about doublethink: Deep inside, the doublethinker knows they stand astride truth and falsehood, so it must be ingrained in them to feel huge pride (not shame) in their cognitive powers. The must feel awesome as they tower above above logic and reason, thumping their chest for all to see, especially Big Bro and the Party Intellectuals.

And for Republicans, we all know Big Bro is Trump and the Party Elite is MAGA.

Edited by BevoAbyss
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8 hours ago, bolverk said:

Q: What the fuck is wrong with you, Fredericksburg?

A: Idiotic paranoia.

Sounds like it's going to be a lesson in FAFO and hilarious to watch.

Texas Republicans in one rural county will hand count ballots. Experts say it’s “a recipe for disaster.”

 

It's gonna be dotard in a landslide anyway.  They probably won't even count them.

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The other thing that has clearly happened within the GOP is an "Elevation of The Stupid."  But once you are willing to disregard factual information in preference to lies that you can agree with, then you can end up anywhere and believe anything. 

So can you really be surprised at hand counting for "accuracy."  The GOP has been elevating stupid for a while now.  

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2024 marks the 40th anniversary of Gregory Johnson burning an American flag in Dallas, across from the Convention Center holding the Reagan coronation that was the 1984 Republican National Convention. Johnson was arrested and convicted of violating a Texas flag protection law. The case made it to the Supreme Court and in a 5-4 opinion, the Court sided with Johnson and held that flag-burning was "symbolic speech" and protected by the First Amendment.

Has anyone in Texas burned a Texas flag in protest of Abbott, Paxton, MAG-GQP, anti-abortion law? (I don't live in Texas, so I might have missed that story.)

Will any of the Surly Leftists get out the matches/gasoline and torch a Texas flag in protest of Abbott, Paxton, MAGA-GQP? 

Or is the Lone Star love too deep, even as fascism/theocracy take over the state? Or the fear of MAGA-Proud Boys-Kyle Rittenhouses exercising their Second Amendment rights to shoot Leftist protestors?

 

Edited by BevoAbyss
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While personally opposed to it, I think flag burning is protected speech.  Not saying I would never, ever do it in a million years.  But I just can't conceive of a situation where I'd think burning a Texas flag would be the best way to demonstrate my frustration with Abbott, Patrick, et. al. on anti-abortion laws or any of the other stupid shit they're doing at the moment.  

When the new "arrest anybody who looks Brown" law goes into effect in March...I already plan to be on the Capitol steps with a sign that clearly reads "Mi Familia es de Mexico.  No Tengo Documentos.  Preguntame Como."  I have dark skin, not super dark, but dark enough you wouldn't pair my name with my skin color.  My eyes and hair are very dark, almost black.  I speak fluent Spanish and can engage with a spanish-speaking DPS trooper with no issue.  I will make it a point to be approached by DPS and harassed, even inviting them to arrest and deport me.  I will speak no English.  They will grab my sign and attempt to detain me.  I will claim I am illegal and have no right to reside in Texas.  Then they'll search my pockets which will contain no DL, no address, no passport, but it will contain one card and one card only Visily.  And that's when I hope my colleagues get a good close-up on their cameras.  That look when somebody knows they've fucked up royally and can't go back on it.  It's better than heroin my friends.  And I'lll do it again the next day during the shift change.  That one's gonna be fun for me.  

Now to your last question, I do have a legit fear not of Kyle Rittenhouse but there will be blood shed on Election Night on up to Inauguration Day (who knows how long this next one will take to settle in the courts).  And again another bloodshedding on the night Donald Trump is pronounced dead.  Hopefully kinda near one another so I can just make it into one big bender and hit rehab just the one time for financial purposes.  But there will absolutely be celebrations in the streets for the defeat and death of Donald Trump.  And there absolutely will be MAGA/Oath Keepers/3%/et. al. taking to the streets to hurt those people.  Bullshit aside, I think there's a 10-20% chance I die that week from either an overdose or from getting sassy and being shot.  But I won't burn a flag if Trump wins.  I will burn a MAGA flag though.  If anybody wants to gift me one for Festivus tomorrow. 

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it's festivus eve, technically.  I put up my aluminum pole.  Which is really just from an old camping tent that still stands up (thats what she said).  On top of two little wooden boards.  I have a leisure suit jacket from an old halloween costume from 25 years ago that I need to air out.  We'll make a nice dinner tomorrow and start with the rest of the traditions.  I get a lot of weird looks from people, but the weirdest look of all is the Paxton Stink Eye.  

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Saw the last few dozen doom and gloom posts but no mention of the young folks.  They’re scaring the shit out of MAGA and it’s a massive reason the nazis are going to extreme lengths even in R strongholds.  It’s gonna be ugly.  I don’t see anything showing those younger voters are inclined to switch over to R assholes like we saw with past generations.  I think the R party, as we see it today, is turbofucked.  They’ll likely split in 2 and that won’t help one bit.  Democrats need to start being the cutthroat assholes Republicans are, but overall I see plenty of reason for hope.  

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2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Saw the last few dozen doom and gloom posts but no mention of the young folks.  They’re scaring the shit out of MAGA and it’s a massive reason the nazis are going to extreme lengths even in R strongholds.  It’s gonna be ugly.  I don’t see anything showing those younger voters are inclined to switch over to R assholes like we saw with past generations.  I think the R party, as we see it today, is turbofucked.  They’ll likely split in 2 and that won’t help one bit.  Democrats need to start being the cutthroat assholes Republicans are, but overall I see plenty of reason for hope.  

The fact that the Republicans in Texas want to make it hard on the young folks to vote is both a sign that they are scared of them, but it's also going to motivate some young folks to vote, who might not have otherwise voted - nothing like telling a young adult that they can't do something, to get them to do it.

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The other thing to keep in mind with population growth is that it isn’t just additive. If the total increase is x, it could mean that 2x are leaving but 3x coming. Or 5x and 4x, etc. So what is the demo of those moving out, and those moving in?  If they are politically opposite, then the larger the total movement the larger the political impact. 

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^

This is the absolutely perfect political tool.  

You don't have to be a political insider, just pay attention as a citizen of Texas.  When it's politically convenient, they say something to the effect of "People are migrating here from California and New York and Chicago, etc. and they are going to liberal-up our Texas!  They don't understand our values!"  And then 15 minutes later, when needed, it's something to the effect of, "Conservatives are fleeing California and New York and Chicago, etc. because they are tired of blue state policies and are coming to take join us in the Texas Miracle!"  Obviously, given just the aggregate numbers...it's a combination of both, with a healthy dose of independents/non-voters mixed in coming to Texas.  

It's an obvious political distraction, no harm in exploiting it...folks from both parties do it.  But that saddest part is it took Patrick and Abbott, et. al. the better part of a decade to figure it out.  They spent a few years yelling about liberal infiltration, then it switched to a few years or red voters fleeing to Texas' safe shores, and then a few more years to figure out they could interchange the message depending on the situation and audience.  

Reminds me of the ending scene in Michael Clayton, "You know?  For such a smart person, you really are dumb!"  In this case though, Dan Patrick is like legit half-retarded.  

 

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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The other thing to keep in mind with population growth is that it isn’t just additive. If the total increase is x, it could mean that 2x are leaving but 3x coming. Or 5x and 4x, etc. So what is the demo of those moving out, and those moving in?  If they are politically opposite, then the larger the total movement the larger the political impact. 

I was at a house last night where kids outnumbered the adults.  We don't have a fucking population decline issue.  

ee28d09a-c20c-4ac2-bb7a-1f418836da1a_tex

Edited by Biff Tannen
realized you were talking about migration, but still applies
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18 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Saw the last few dozen doom and gloom posts but no mention of the young folks.  They’re scaring the shit out of MAGA and it’s a massive reason the nazis are going to extreme lengths even in R strongholds.  It’s gonna be ugly.  I don’t see anything showing those younger voters are inclined to switch over to R assholes like we saw with past generations.  I think the R party, as we see it today, is turbofucked.  They’ll likely split in 2 and that won’t help one bit.  Democrats need to start being the cutthroat assholes Republicans are, but overall I see plenty of reason for hope.  

The Republican strategy for that is to make sure that, by the time that generation is voting in large numbers, they will have implemented some combination of gerrymandering, voter suppression, court packing, state control over local election districts, etc. to make sure that they still get the outcome they want, whether legitimately or not. Republicans are hostile to the principles of "one person one vote." They have some balls to complain about election security when they are the ones actively working to fuck up the system.

 

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The Republican strategy for that is to make sure that, by the time that generation is voting in large numbers, they will have implemented some combination of gerrymandering, voter suppression, court packing, state control over local election districts, etc. to make sure that they still get the outcome they want, whether legitimately or not. Republicans are hostile to the principles of "one person one vote." They have some balls to complain about election security when they are the ones actively working to fuck up the system.
 
Every accusation is a confession.
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I wouldn't be upset with Phelan for sending out Ramadan cards out.  It's that he did them 9 months too late/3 months too early.  

 

I mean I know the Dan Patrick and Paxton supporters that received them are stupids.  But that's just it.  When dealing with stupids, you have to remember---theyre gonna see a funny sounding word written in an "A-rab" font.  So they're gonna google it.  And it's gonna say March 2023.  And they're just gonna collapse their remaining 7 brain cells.  Even dumb people can follow a calendar, even Trump knows when a pornstar isn't ovulating.

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