Which City Is The Next Austin?

[bolverk 29261]

5 hours ago, Macanudo said:

I've wondered why some of the towns and cities in NW Texas (Amarillo), NE New Mexico (Raton) and E/SE Colorado (Limon, Trinidad and Pueblo) haven't blown up.   

Say what you want about places like Amarillo or Pueblo but land is cheap to some degree and for some of those places you're only a couple of hours from tons of outdoor stuff (fishing, skiing, etc.)    In those two cities cases, you either have an airport with direct flights to Houston, DFW, OKC and Vegas (Amarillo) or you're only a short drive to one (Pueblo to Colorado Springs).   Obviously places like Raton, Trinidad and Limon are problematic with regard to air travel  but if my employer told me I could move go Trinidad I might consider it one day.  

I always find it funny that places in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama aren't usually in the mix.   I know Birmingham has gotten some love lately but I guess corporate America still just can't wrap its head around employees showing up to work sporting Confederate flag t-shirts and having to allow for spit cups on their desks.

I think a big part of why some of these places don't succeed nowadays in attaining rapid growth is that the fundamentals of our economy have changed from extracting natural resources from a particular place/region (whether that be through agriculture, mining for minerals, and even drilling for oil to a degree as those workers are much more transient before and will just leave with their trailer at the end of the "boom") to exploiting talent.

Sure, if those towns offer a location in proximity to natural amenities, they can attract retirees and maybe some work-from-homers. But, at the end of the day, cheap dirt and a two-hour-drive to the mountains ain't gonna cut it because that sort of advantage isn't really that competitive. Those places are a dime a dozen: think Roswell, Ozona, Dalhart, or Tucumcari.

The corporate relocations and startups that drive the kind of growth we're talking about are looking for the educated and skilled talent that they need to stay competitive in their respective industries, which means going to where young, college graduates want to live. To tap into that talent, companies have to go to larger urban centers with higher education institutions nearby and a scene/vibe/lifestyle that makes those young professionals want to stay after graduating.

This is why so many communities are now focusing on cultivating those types of quality of life amenities, including downtown revitalization projects, to remain competitive in the attraction and retention of talent.

 

Edited July 4, 2021 by bolverk

[Macanudo 12917]

And I get that, hence why I left out Roswell, Dalhart, Tucumcari,  et al.  Amarillo is 80 miles north of Lubbock (Texas Tech).  Raton is 4-5 hours from Amarillo, Lubbock and Albuquerque.   Trinidad is another 60 minutes away.  If an employer really thought about it, places like this would make a lot of sense especially those who want to sell the while "no state income tax" idea (for Amarillo

If often wondered why more companies don't set up in Vancouver, WA.   No state income tax in WA and 0% sales tax in Oregon.   Live in WA and buy your big screen TVs and appliances in Portland.  Plus the scenic beauty of the PNW/Columbia River Gorge.

[MAUFRAIS 6571]

Those place suck donkey. Anyone with the least bit of intention in their life would choose a different location. Jesus. Amarillo.

[DonkeyCigars 144]

18 hours ago, bolverk said:

I think a big part of why some of these places don't succeed nowadays in attaining rapid growth is that the fundamentals of our economy have changed from extracting natural resources from a particular place/region (whether that be through agriculture, mining for minerals, and even drilling for oil to a degree as those workers are much more transient before and will just leave with their trailer at the end of the "boom") to exploiting talent.

Sure, if those towns offer a location in proximity to natural amenities, they can attract retirees and maybe some work-from-homers. But, at the end of the day, cheap dirt and a two-hour-drive to the mountains ain't gonna cut it because that sort of advantage isn't really that competitive. Those places are a dime a dozen: think Roswell, Ozona, Dalhart, or Tucumcari.

The corporate relocations and startups that drive the kind of growth we're talking about are looking for the educated and skilled talent that they need to stay competitive in their respective industries, which means going to where young, college graduates want to live. To tap into that talent, companies have to go to larger urban centers with higher education institutions nearby and a scene/vibe/lifestyle that makes those young professionals want to stay after graduating.

This is why so many communities are now focusing on cultivating those types of quality of life amenities, including downtown revitalization projects, to remain competitive in the attraction and retention of talent.

 

This, and has anyone spent any length of time in Jackson and/or Jackson Hole lately? That place is lousy with 20-30 year olds in Patagonia's working remote or long-term renting during ski season, off-season, etc. because a) it has all the outdoor requirements talked about and b) there is a vibe/scene for these folks that have been built (largely because of the "wannabe" or "me too" aspirations as young, white males bought into Jackson Hole to be like the older white males who made it a corporate retreat/thing).

Edited July 5, 2021 by DonkeyCigars

[Macanudo 12917]

10 hours ago, MAUFRAIS said:

Those place suck donkey. Anyone with the least bit of intention in their life would choose a different location. Jesus. Amarillo.

Almost 4,000,000 people live in Oklahoma.  Amarillo isn't that bad.

[bolverk 29261]

10 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Almost 4,000,000 people live in Oklahoma.  Amarillo isn't that bad.

Depends on where you're from and what you're used to. Having grown up in a small West Texas town and getting my undergrad at Tech, I think I could make a go if forced to. I'm accustomed to the climate, the culture, and the people out there. As a matter of fact, one of my former coworkers here in downtown Austin got tired of the commute from her home in Elgin jumped at an opportunity in Amarillo because she missed "the West" (she grew up somewhere near Cody, Wyoming). But I think it'd be much harder to convince a Silicon Valley bro (or even someone who grew up in the DFW suburbs) to leave a place like Austin and relocate to somewhere like Amarillo. 

Don't get me wrong though; even I sometimes fantasize a little about living in a place like Alpine, TX, Trinidad, CO or Las Vegas, NM just to get away from it all.

[gmr548 16427]

I've wondered why some of the towns and cities in NW Texas (Amarillo), NE New Mexico (Raton) and E/SE Colorado (Limon, Trinidad and Pueblo) haven't blown up.   
Say what you want about places like Amarillo or Pueblo but land is cheap to some degree and for some of those places you're only a couple of hours from tons of outdoor stuff (fishing, skiing, etc.)    In those two cities cases, you either have an airport with direct flights to Houston, DFW, OKC and Vegas (Amarillo) or you're only a short drive to one (Pueblo to Colorado Springs).   Obviously places like Raton, Trinidad and Limon are problematic with regard to air travel  but if my employer told me I could move go Trinidad I might consider it one day.  
I always find it funny that places in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama aren't usually in the mix.   I know Birmingham has gotten some love lately but I guess corporate America still just can't wrap its head around employees showing up to work sporting Confederate flag t-shirts and having to allow for spit cups on their desks.

Corporate relocations tend to go where there is either A.) An educated/skilled workforce pipeline in place, and/or B.) It is easy to attract talent. Most of the places you posted check neither box. They follow trends, not set them.

[Neonmoon 38127]

15 hours ago, Macanudo said:

And I get that, hence why I left out Roswell, Dalhart, Tucumcari,  et al.  Amarillo is 80 miles north of Lubbock (Texas Tech).  Raton is 4-5 hours from Amarillo, Lubbock and Albuquerque.   Trinidad is another 60 minutes away.  If an employer really thought about it, places like this would make a lot of sense especially those who want to sell the while "no state income tax" idea (for Amarillo

If often wondered why more companies don't set up in Vancouver, WA.   No state income tax in WA and 0% sales tax in Oregon.   Live in WA and buy your big screen TVs and appliances in Portland.  Plus the scenic beauty of the PNW/Columbia River Gorge.

Lubbock is a shithole. Amarillo is in the middle of nowhere and only 80 miles from the nearest shithole. Employers want to attract employees, not hide from them. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I started this thread in February and expected a little more consensus on a top few choices. Maybe there isn’t another Austin in the near future. There’s no economic law that says there has to be. It will be interesting to track the growth of some mid-sized cities over the next decade to see if anybody breaks out. 

[XYZ 2154]

18 hours ago, Macanudo said:

And I get that, hence why I left out Roswell, Dalhart, Tucumcari,  et al.  Amarillo is 80 miles north of Lubbock (Texas Tech).  Raton is 4-5 hours from Amarillo, Lubbock and Albuquerque.   Trinidad is another 60 minutes away.  If an employer really thought about it, places like this would make a lot of sense especially those who want to sell the while "no state income tax" idea (for Amarillo

If often wondered why more companies don't set up in Vancouver, WA.   No state income tax in WA and 0% sales tax in Oregon.   Live in WA and buy your big screen TVs and appliances in Portland.  Plus the scenic beauty of the PNW/Columbia River Gorge.

So, hmmm, the thread is about the next Austin, and you decided to take Dalhart off the list???

[bolverk 29261]

58 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I started this thread in February and expected a little more consensus on a top few choices. Maybe there isn’t another Austin in the near future. There’s no economic law that says there has to be. It will be interesting to track the growth of some mid-sized cities over the next decade to see if anybody breaks out. 

Did you forget which site you were posting on? Were you high?

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Did you forget which site you were posting on? Were you high?

1. No

2. Probably 

[gmr548 16427]

I started this thread in February and expected a little more consensus on a top few choices. Maybe there isn’t another Austin in the near future. There’s no economic law that says there has to be. It will be interesting to track the growth of some mid-sized cities over the next decade to see if anybody breaks out. 

Austin is part of a group of cities that have benefited from the confluence of the tech sector asserting itself as the engine of the economy and the coming of age of millennials. Within that prism, you’re going to see places like Seattle, Denver, Austin, Nashville, and the Research Triangle continue to experience tremendous growth in size and general economic and cultural stature. Austin is at the forefront of that group of course but it’s the same basic story in many places.

The answer to your question depends on the timeline. Five to ten years? I don’t think this trend or the cities growing most quickly changes much. Further out the answer depends on what you think will be driving migration patterns. Economic developments are obviously hard to predict - who knows what sort of industries or technologies will arise in 30 years that we can not fathom now - but certainly climate will be a factor. Northern latitudes, mild weather, water all factors there. Legacy cities in the Great Lakes region have a big opportunity. Boise, ID (already growing like crazy and mentioned here) is one I could see being a boomtown through the middle of the century as PHX and Vegas become more untenable. Major Canadian cities too if we’re including those in the discussion.

Houston could actually be in real trouble if the large energy companies don’t make serious pivots into renewables. Energy transition is fully mainstream with institutional investors and that cat isn’t going back in the bag. If it gets left behind, it could be my generation’s Detroit. I don’t think it’ll be that extreme of an economic decline but it has as much to lose as any city in America, with the possible exception of Miami, which could have very valuable real estate literally going under.

[Murfdogg21 4398]

The stabbings and drug overdoses will probably keep people away from Pueblo. I kind of see what Mac’s saying in his examples as romanticized small towns, cheap property, laid back culture, but they are all just too far geographically and culturally from where young city (especially non-Texan) adults are.

Nashville is already huge, but it did trail Austin in the hipness and buzz if you were looking for professional or entertainment festivals, bachelor/ette parties, relocation of corporate HQs, etc. I think it can still be argued as a “next Austin” if you are speculating for job or real estate growth. 

If the criteria is looking for a small to mid sized town near a major college with an artsy cultural scene to mimic Austin’s transformation from late 20th century to now, then I’d agree with some of the suggestions of Boise, Asheville/similar NC towns, Des Moines. I’ve only been to Knoxville once but it seems like it would have similar potential. I’ve never been to Reno so I haven’t a clue if real estate is already absurd or if the town in a crap hole, but it seems geographically well positioned relative to SF and pacific NW, near main campus of Univ of Nevada, Lake Tahoe for summers and skiing, no state income tax, etc. 

[TwiceHorn 31086]

On 2/22/2021 at 8:42 AM, bluto said:

For all the FW mentions, I lived there 3.5 years recently. They’re so damn lost and poorly run, with oil on the decline generally and the tail end of great biz migration to Texas, there’s just not much cooking for them. Outside of defense manufacturing, which is more blue collar than white collar pay level, there just isn’t much to attract young college grads. I’m older than that bracket but still mobile and know of a handful of peers who gave FW a shot and inevitably made the move to Dallas.

They seem more interested attracting distribution centers around alliance and the pipe dream panther island nonsense than fixing the ISD to attract big job creators to downtown. The one thing they are doing right is the med school just west of downtown, big kudos on growing that.

If you can find one of the few golden goose jobs in FW (or more likely in FW, have family money) and already have a family, it’s a really great place to set up shop. But it’s not a very attractive setup for young college grad, and won’t be until they get a few major good job creators to roll out - so far that’s been a major fail.

Definitely the way it was 30 years ago.  A very nice place to live for a young family, but just not very  . . .  dynamic for lack of a better term.

[XYZ 2154]

9 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

I’ve never been to Reno so I haven’t a clue if real estate is already absurd or if the town in a crap hole, but it seems geographically well positioned relative to SF and pacific NW, near main campus of Univ of Nevada, Lake Tahoe for summers and skiing, no state income tax, etc. 

Yeah, but “Nevada”.

['stache 21729]

On 6/28/2021 at 2:01 PM, crash_davis said:

...and it's full of dipshit okies.

There's a nice little midtown "bubble" in Tulsa that I truly enjoy and appreciate the people who I associate with, who are very like-minded. I just avoid rural areas and the suburbs like the plague. Literally these days as they are the dipshits who won't get vaccinated or wear masks, because muh freedoms and fuck everyone but myself. There's tons of that in Texas too, as you know, and Austin is just a bubble, as Dallas and Houston surely have similar bubbles too. What I like most here as opposed to my time in Dallas is that I can live near downtown and avoid commutes. I know Dallas is still blowing up but a lot of it is driven by shit being cheap for corporations, not because the quality of life is anything to write home about, especially for the middle class who are moving to soulless cookie cutter suburbs and driving their F-250s 2 hours a day for their desk jobs.

[crash_davis 23076]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I know Dallas is still blowing up but a lot of it is driven by shit being cheap for corporations, not because the quality of life is anything to write home about, especially for the middle class who are moving to soulless cookie cutter suburbs and driving their F-250s 2 hours a day for their desk jobs.

Suburban status symbols. Brodozer for the dad, German made SUV for the mom.

I live in Austin proper. It's a bubble. Drive 20+ mins to Cedar Park, Round Rock, Kyle, Buda, Circle C or any of the Austin suburbs and they mostly look like any suburb around Houston or Dallas, just greener scenery. Brodozers everywhere.

[Macanudo 12917]

Ok... Then why not Santa Fe, NM?   Less than 100k in population but only an hour north of another million people (Albuquerque).   Unless both are surrounded by National Forest land that can't be built on, I'd assume land is cheap out there.

[gmr548 16427]

Ok... Then why not Santa Fe, NM?   Less than 100k in population but only an hour north of another million people (Albuquerque).   Unless both are surrounded by National Forest land that can't be built on, I'd assume land is cheap out there.

Santa Fe is in fact surrounded by a lot of public land. There is very little industry outside of tourism and state government. Land is also definitely not cheap in Santa Fe.

ABQ is less restricted geographically but is high crime and generally gets overshadowed by Denver, Phoenix, Vegas, etc. in the southwest. UNM is there but there isn’t a UT quality institution putting out a steady stream of young talent; in fact, lots of young people have to leave NM. It’s got a little going for it - Netflix is in the process of expanding its big production facility there and there are some STEM jobs with companies like Intel or the federal government/federal contractors. Housing is relatively cheap There’s some reason to think it could see some growth as Denver and Phoenix have gotten more expensive. But the lack of talent base is a problem.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13388]

SIAP. Quick read from Kinder Institute (Rice) that the SA-Austin corridor is the main region set for explosive growth.

https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2021/07/04/next-big-texas-city?utm_campaign=sprout&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

[LCHorn 2570]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

SIAP. Quick read from Kinder Institute (Rice) that the SA-Austin corridor is the main region set for explosive growth.

https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2021/07/04/next-big-texas-city?utm_campaign=sprout&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

I've been thinking Austin is going to drag San Antonio along for the ride for awhile and recommending California SFR investors to take a look there, particularly if their price range is $350K or less. 

I'm also bullish on Lockhart but I can't think of a good analogue (maybe a Round Top within commute range of Austin or poor man's Boerne, perhaps). 

[bolverk 29261]

8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I've been thinking Austin is going to drag San Antonio along for the ride for awhile and recommending California SFR investors to take a look there, particularly if their price range is $350K or less. 

I'm also bullish on Lockhart but I can't think of a good analogue (maybe a Round Top within commute range of Austin or poor man's Boerne, perhaps). 

I haven't seen any hard data on Austin's growth spilling over into San Antonio yet but have heard several anecdotes of individuals making the move as well as a few IT companies setting up second offices down there. The motivations all seem to be based off the greater affordability of the city along with its distinct culture. I know a lot of Surlsters like to rag on the city, but parts of the city have a really awesome vibe. I can't help but think those few stories we hear about people opting out of Austin's affordability crisis and picking San Antonio where home prices are about half the price just an hour or so away will start becoming more common.

[LCHorn 2570]

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I haven't seen any hard data on Austin's growth spilling over into San Antonio yet but have heard several anecdotes of individuals making the move as well as a few IT companies setting up second offices down there. The motivations all seem to be based off the greater affordability of the city along with its distinct culture. I know a lot of Surlsters like to rag on the city, but parts of the city have a really awesome vibe. I can't help but think those few stories we hear about people opting out of Austin's affordability crisis and picking San Antonio where home prices are about half the price just an hour or so away will start becoming more common.

Affordability is a big part and I've talked to several work from anywhere folks moving here from California on comparing Austin to San Antonio.  For $1.5 million you can get 2200 sq ft fixer upper in Eanes or 4K sq ft with a pool and a historic home in Alamo Heights. 

A good number of these buyers are of Asian or SE Asian descent and see Austin as a more multicultural place, at least in terms of their racial and economic peers.  Alamo Heights has more in common with New Orleans than Austin in terms of antipathy towards new money so I can understand how they might feel that way. 

It's kind of a shame we don't have the political will to build Japanese high speed rail between the cities because that would be HUGE for San Antonio AND allow Austin to grow a little slower. 

[MissingInAction 24746]

Temple, and I'm being super cereal. Real estate/housing prices are driving everyone who doesn't make 250k plus out of austin.

[XYZ 2154]

4 hours ago, Macanudo said:

Ok... Then why not Santa Fe, NM?   Less than 100k in population but only an hour north of another million people (Albuquerque).   Unless both are surrounded by National Forest land that can't be built on, I'd assume land is cheap out there.

Everybody stay the fuck away from New Mexico. It’s a shithole. Don’t come here…I mean don’t go there.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

6 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Temple, and I'm being super cereal. Real estate/housing prices are driving everyone who doesn't make 250k plus out of austin.

While I don’t see temple as a future metropolis, I have been checking out potential investment properties there. Would be easy for me to manage from my current location, has a low entry point, and plenty of potential for growth.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

dp

Edited July 12, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

While I don’t see temple as a future metropolis, I have been checking out potential investment properties there. Would be easy for me to manage from my current location, has a low entry point, and plenty of potential for growth.

BS&W(Baylor Scott & White), military contractors, and military retirees having been driving this market for quite awhile.

Edited July 12, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[TKthunder2 4973]

On 7/11/2021 at 9:41 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

SIAP. Quick read from Kinder Institute (Rice) that the SA-Austin corridor is the main region set for explosive growth.

https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2021/07/04/next-big-texas-city?utm_campaign=sprout&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

On 7/11/2021 at 11:31 AM, LCHorn said:

I've been thinking Austin is going to drag San Antonio along for the ride for awhile and recommending California SFR investors to take a look there, particularly if their price range is $350K or less. 

I'm also bullish on Lockhart but I can't think of a good analogue (maybe a Round Top within commute range of Austin or poor man's Boerne, perhaps). 

 

On 7/11/2021 at 11:49 AM, bolverk said:

I haven't seen any hard data on Austin's growth spilling over into San Antonio yet but have heard several anecdotes of individuals making the move as well as a few IT companies setting up second offices down there. The motivations all seem to be based off the greater affordability of the city along with its distinct culture. I know a lot of Surlsters like to rag on the city, but parts of the city have a really awesome vibe. I can't help but think those few stories we hear about people opting out of Austin's affordability crisis and picking San Antonio where home prices are about half the price just an hour or so away will start becoming more common.

http://urbanscale.com/blog/5-key-ingredients-create-mega-region/
 

This is like 7 years old, but I remembered it based on these posts…

 

Spoiler

Future Mega-Region #1: Austin-San Antonio

Of course, for the Austin-San Antonio region to ever become a single metro area, the primary cities – Austin and San Antonio – must continue to grow and serve as the engines for their respective regional economies.  But this will not be enough to create a new mega-region.  What happens in the smaller cities in between the two larger cities is equally important.  These in-between cities – San Marcos and New Braunfels – will determine if Austin and San Antonio become a mega-region.

The Austin-San Antonio corridor is perfectly primed to become a mega-region for several reasons:

• Both metro areas are growing rapidly.  San Antonio’s metro area population grew by 30.5% from 2000 to 2012.  And the Austin metro area grew by 46.8% during this period.  In fact, Austin has recently been named the fastest-growing large city in the U.S., for the 4^th year in a row now.
• There are plans to connect Austin and San Antonio via commuter rail.
• A second highway – State Highway 130 –  was recently built connecting the two regions, helping to cement the economic ties between the two cities.
• The region’s two critical in-between cities – San Marcos and New Braunfels – are both growing rapidly and show strong potential to become important regional centers.

Let’s talk a bit more for a minute about the growth potential of San Marcos and New Braunfels.  San Marcos is undergoing an unprecedented population boom.  The city is also making serious progress toward the development of a vibrant downtown district.  And Texas State University, a major university located in San Marcos, continues to expand.

New Braunfels, home to Schlitterbahn, one of the nation’s most popular water parks, also appears poised to continue its rapid economic and population growth.  The recently approved Veramendi development includes 5,000 homes in addition to retail, corporate campuses, medical offices, a resort hotel, university campus and two elementary schools.  A new full-service hospital that is part of the rapidly expanding Town Center at Creekside development will also provide a major boost to the New Braunfels economy.

The only ingredient that is somewhat of a barrier to the formation of a future Austin-San Antonio mega-region is the region’s growth patterns.  Take a look at the map below.

Austin’s metro area is growing away from San Antonio.  Austin’s regional center of population is almost 4 miles north of downtown Austin, and the region continues to grow farther to the north at a pace of about 1/10 mile each year.  However, the reality is that the Austin region is growing rapidly in every direction…it just happens to be experiencing more growth to the north and northwest.  Also, the San Antonio region is growing in the same direction.  So, if anything, the regional growth patterns might slow down the formation of an Austin-San Antonio mega-region, but they don’t appear to pose much of a threat.

 

[TKthunder2 4973]

Spoiler

America's Next Great Metropolis Is Taking Shape In Texas

If you drive south from Dallas, or west from Houston, a subtle shift takes place. The monotonous, flat prairie that dominates much of Texas gives way to a landscape that rises and ebbs.

The region around Highway 35 is called the Hill Country, and although it does not seem so curvy to a Californian, it is some of the very nicest land in the state of Texas, attracting a growing coterie of wealthy boomers seeking rural retreats. It also turns out to be a growth corridor that is expanding more rapidly than any other in the nation. The area is home to three of the 10 counties with more than 100,000 residents that have logged the fastest population growth in the country since 2010.

In fact, there is no regional economy that has more momentum than the one that straddles the 74 miles between San Antonio and Austin. Between these two fast-growing urban centers lie a series of rapidly expanding counties and several smaller cities, notably San Marcos, that are attracting residents and creating jobs at remarkable rates.

Anchoring one end of the region is Austin, which has been the all-around growth champion among America’s larger cities for the better part of a decade. Texas Monthly has dubbed it the “land of the perpetual boom.”

PROMOTED

Austin has been ranked among the top two or three fastest-growing cities for jobs virtually every year since we began compiling our annual jobs rankings. Since 2000, employment in the Austin area has expanded 52.3%, 15 percentage points more than either Dallas-Ft. Worth or Houston.

Comparisons with the other big metro areas are almost pathetic. Austin’s job growth has been roughly three times that of New York, more than four times that of San Francisco, five times Los Angeles’ and 10 times that of Chicago. Simply put, Austin is putting the rest of the big metro areas in the shade.

Nor can Austin be dismissed as a place where low-skilled workers flee, as was said about other former fast-growing stars, notably Las Vegas. Just look at employment in STEM (science-, technology-, engineering- and math-related fields). Since 2001, Austin’s STEM workforce has expanded 35%, compared to 10% for the country as a whole, 26% in San Francisco, a mere 2% in New York and zero in Los Angeles. And contrary to perceptions, the vast majority of this growth has taken place outside the entertainment-oriented core, notes University of Texas professor Ryan Streeter, with nearly half outside the city limits.

Austin has also been sizzling in the business services arena, the largest high-wage job sectorin the country. Since 2001, employment in business services in the Austin area has grown 87%, more than any of the large Texas towns.

Bicyclists take a break below new buildings in Austin, Texas, on April 3, 2015. About 900,000 people... [+]

No surprise then that Austin has become a magnet for people. Its population has grown at the fastest rate among U.S. metro areas above a million in the nation since 2000, an amazing 60%. That’s more than twice as fast as Atlanta, three times more than hipster haven Portland, roughly six times San Francisco and San Jose, and more than six times Los Angeles or New York. Much of the growth is coming from migration rather than births, and it boasts the highest rate of net in-migration of all the big Texas cities. The biggest sources of newcomers, according to an analysis of IRS data by the Manhattan Institute’s Aaron Renn, are California, the Northeast and Florida.

San Antonio: The Emerging Upstart

During the decades of Texas’ urban boom, San Antonio has been considered a laggard, a somewhat sleepy Latino town with great food and tourist attractions and a slow pace of life. “There has been a long perception of San Antonio as a poor city with a nice river area,” says Rogelio Sáenz, dean of the public policy school at the University of Texas-San Antonio.

Economic and population data say otherwise. Since 2000, San Antonio has clocked 31.1% job growth, slightly behind Houston, but more than twice that of New York, and almost three times that of San Francisco and Los Angeles.

And many of the new jobs are not in hospitality, or low-end services, but in the upper echelon of employment. This reflects the area’s strong military connections, which have made it a center for such growth industries as aerospace, and cyber-security. Although slightly behind Austin, San Antonio’s STEM job growth since 2001 -- 29% -- is greater than that of all other Texas cities, as well as San Francisco’s, and three times the national average.

Similar growth can be seen in such fields as business and professional services, where the San Antonio area has expanded its job base by 44% since 2000. This just about tracks the other Texas cities, and leaves the other traditional business service hotbeds -- New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles -- well behind. The city has also expanded its financial sector; the region ranked seventh in our latest survey of the fastest-growing financial centers. Once again, there is a military connection; much of the area’s financial growth has been based on USAA, which provides financial services to current and former military personnel around the country, and employs 17,000 workers from its headquarters in the city’s burgeoning northwest.

But perhaps most encouraging has been the massive in-migration into San Antonio. Long seen as a place dominated by people who grew up there, the metro area has become a magnet for new arrivals. Since 2010, its rate of net domestic in-migration trails only Austin among the major Texas cities. Significantly, the area’s educated millennial population growth ranks in the top 10 of America’s big cities, just about even with Austin, and well ahead of such touted “brain centers” as Boston, New York, San Francisco.

In the process, San Antonio is emerging as an attractive alternative for young professionals and families to an Austin that has become more congested and expensive. The cost of living in San Antonio is significantly lower than the other Texas cities, and less than half that of places like San Francisco and Brooklyn. As the vanguard of millennials moves into the family forming, childbearing and house-buying years in the coming decade, San Antonio, with its increasingly lively music, art and restaurant scene, is likely to grow in attractiveness.

Greater San Marcos: Whoa Nellie!

As impressive as San Antonio and Austin's progress has been, the most dramatic locus for growth in the region is between the two cities. The San Marcos area, which lies at the center of the corridor, has clocked growth that is among the most rapid in the nation by several measures. Looking at population, two of the 10 fastest growing counties in the country since 2010 are located in this corridor -- Hays and Comal. Their growth rate, 4% per annum since 2010, exceeds Austin’s 3% and is almost double the growth rate of Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston.

As is usual in Texas, and most American cities, urban growth tends to expand outwards, not only for population but also for jobs. Over the past decade, Hays and Comal’s job growth rate has been an astounding 37%, outpacing Austin’s impressive 31% growth, the other Texas cities, and over six times the pace of the country overall.

Local boosters suggest that this growth will transform the San Marcos area into something like other suburban nerdistans, such as San Jose/Silicon Valley, north Dallas, Orange County and Raleigh-Durham. Certainly some of the same advantages those areas enjoyed are emerging, including the growth of Texas State University (now with over 38,000 students) as a major center of higher education.

Equally important, note researchers John Beddow and James LeSage, the central location of the San Marcos area allows families to choose from not only local jobs, but those located in both San Antonio and Austin. And to be sure, tech, education, business and professional services are all growing rapidly, but so far much of the development is lower on the food chain, such as food service and wholesale trade. Amazon, for example, just recently opened a sprawling, 855,000-square-foot warehouse in San Marcos, which is slated to employ upwards of 1,000 people.

Choices To Be Made

If you were to look for the next great American metropolis, there’s probably no better bet than the emerging San Antonio-Austin corridor. The elements are all there: major universities, including the Austin and San Antonio campuses of the University of Texas, job and population growth, low housing prices and a burgeoning tech community. Perhaps even more important, this part of Texas is only marginally tied to the energy industry, which has become a huge drag on the economy of the state’s largest city, Houston.

Yet there remain many challenges. One is transportation, particularly around freeway-allergic Austin, although San Antonio has an excellent and largely free-flowing system. The Austin bottleneck is particularly troublesome because much of the city’s growth is to the north, which means commuters living in the San Marcos region have to navigate through painfully slow freeways. Another is education, despite the university presence. San Marcos and Austin may be above the national average in terms of the percentage of college-educated residents, but San Antonio and New Braunfels, a large town south of San Marcos, still lag.

To maintain the area’s natural beauty, steps must be taken to prevent development from overrunning the Hill Country.

But none of this should stop this region from coalescing into something that represents a Texas version of Silicon Valley -- a little less dependent on the highest end of companies, less expensive and more diversified -- providing a powerful new entrant among the nerdistans that increasingly dominate our national economy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2016/10/13/the-next-great-american-metropolis-is-taking-shape-in-texas/?sh=2d0c85131e2f

Also 4 years old but on topic

Edited July 12, 2021 by TKthunder2

[royiv 9124]

While I don't think it's going to be the next Austin any time soon, Northwest Arkansas is an area that punches way above its weight class. Given the presence of Wal-Mart, Tyson and J.B. Hunt, it has amenities not found in other areas of its size. It has great cultural amenities, including Crystal Bridges, fantastic outdoor activities, a solid airport for an area its size and the presence of a large state university. 

[Guest Lobo]

Decent pick.  It is woefully underrated in terms of its geographic beauty.  Nobody's gonna move near Tyson for collaborative opportunities and University of Arkansas is just a state school in name only, it offers very little in terms of intellectual talent pool.  But Wal-Mart, Hunt, et. al., an affordable cost of living, with natural beauty is nothing to shake a stick at.  They need to work on that airport and Little Rock needs to shut up and stop poaching shit and making trouble for that region.  But yeah, it's certainly only going to get bigger and better.  I've never been to Crystal Bridges but we're finally going to the day before the football game and I'm really looking forward to it.  

Plus you're just a short drive from the Yakov Smirnoff Theater in beautiful downtown Branson. 

But they really do have pretty women and good fishing up that way as well.  

[XYZ 2154]

Dalhart.

Dalhart is the next Austin. Book it.

[billfromlaketravis 11330]

On 7/12/2021 at 4:45 PM, TKthunder2 said:

  Reveal hidden contents

America's Next Great Metropolis Is Taking Shape In Texas

If you drive south from Dallas, or west from Houston, a subtle shift takes place. The monotonous, flat prairie that dominates much of Texas gives way to a landscape that rises and ebbs.

The region around Highway 35 is called the Hill Country, and although it does not seem so curvy to a Californian, it is some of the very nicest land in the state of Texas, attracting a growing coterie of wealthy boomers seeking rural retreats. It also turns out to be a growth corridor that is expanding more rapidly than any other in the nation. The area is home to three of the 10 counties with more than 100,000 residents that have logged the fastest population growth in the country since 2010.

In fact, there is no regional economy that has more momentum than the one that straddles the 74 miles between San Antonio and Austin. Between these two fast-growing urban centers lie a series of rapidly expanding counties and several smaller cities, notably San Marcos, that are attracting residents and creating jobs at remarkable rates.

Anchoring one end of the region is Austin, which has been the all-around growth champion among America’s larger cities for the better part of a decade. Texas Monthly has dubbed it the “land of the perpetual boom.”

PROMOTED

Austin has been ranked among the top two or three fastest-growing cities for jobs virtually every year since we began compiling our annual jobs rankings. Since 2000, employment in the Austin area has expanded 52.3%, 15 percentage points more than either Dallas-Ft. Worth or Houston.

Comparisons with the other big metro areas are almost pathetic. Austin’s job growth has been roughly three times that of New York, more than four times that of San Francisco, five times Los Angeles’ and 10 times that of Chicago. Simply put, Austin is putting the rest of the big metro areas in the shade.

Nor can Austin be dismissed as a place where low-skilled workers flee, as was said about other former fast-growing stars, notably Las Vegas. Just look at employment in STEM (science-, technology-, engineering- and math-related fields). Since 2001, Austin’s STEM workforce has expanded 35%, compared to 10% for the country as a whole, 26% in San Francisco, a mere 2% in New York and zero in Los Angeles. And contrary to perceptions, the vast majority of this growth has taken place outside the entertainment-oriented core, notes University of Texas professor Ryan Streeter, with nearly half outside the city limits.

Austin has also been sizzling in the business services arena, the largest high-wage job sectorin the country. Since 2001, employment in business services in the Austin area has grown 87%, more than any of the large Texas towns.

Bicyclists take a break below new buildings in Austin, Texas, on April 3, 2015. About 900,000 people... [+]

No surprise then that Austin has become a magnet for people. Its population has grown at the fastest rate among U.S. metro areas above a million in the nation since 2000, an amazing 60%. That’s more than twice as fast as Atlanta, three times more than hipster haven Portland, roughly six times San Francisco and San Jose, and more than six times Los Angeles or New York. Much of the growth is coming from migration rather than births, and it boasts the highest rate of net in-migration of all the big Texas cities. The biggest sources of newcomers, according to an analysis of IRS data by the Manhattan Institute’s Aaron Renn, are California, the Northeast and Florida.

San Antonio: The Emerging Upstart

During the decades of Texas’ urban boom, San Antonio has been considered a laggard, a somewhat sleepy Latino town with great food and tourist attractions and a slow pace of life. “There has been a long perception of San Antonio as a poor city with a nice river area,” says Rogelio Sáenz, dean of the public policy school at the University of Texas-San Antonio.

Economic and population data say otherwise. Since 2000, San Antonio has clocked 31.1% job growth, slightly behind Houston, but more than twice that of New York, and almost three times that of San Francisco and Los Angeles.

And many of the new jobs are not in hospitality, or low-end services, but in the upper echelon of employment. This reflects the area’s strong military connections, which have made it a center for such growth industries as aerospace, and cyber-security. Although slightly behind Austin, San Antonio’s STEM job growth since 2001 -- 29% -- is greater than that of all other Texas cities, as well as San Francisco’s, and three times the national average.

Similar growth can be seen in such fields as business and professional services, where the San Antonio area has expanded its job base by 44% since 2000. This just about tracks the other Texas cities, and leaves the other traditional business service hotbeds -- New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles -- well behind. The city has also expanded its financial sector; the region ranked seventh in our latest survey of the fastest-growing financial centers. Once again, there is a military connection; much of the area’s financial growth has been based on USAA, which provides financial services to current and former military personnel around the country, and employs 17,000 workers from its headquarters in the city’s burgeoning northwest.

But perhaps most encouraging has been the massive in-migration into San Antonio. Long seen as a place dominated by people who grew up there, the metro area has become a magnet for new arrivals. Since 2010, its rate of net domestic in-migration trails only Austin among the major Texas cities. Significantly, the area’s educated millennial population growth ranks in the top 10 of America’s big cities, just about even with Austin, and well ahead of such touted “brain centers” as Boston, New York, San Francisco.

In the process, San Antonio is emerging as an attractive alternative for young professionals and families to an Austin that has become more congested and expensive. The cost of living in San Antonio is significantly lower than the other Texas cities, and less than half that of places like San Francisco and Brooklyn. As the vanguard of millennials moves into the family forming, childbearing and house-buying years in the coming decade, San Antonio, with its increasingly lively music, art and restaurant scene, is likely to grow in attractiveness.

Greater San Marcos: Whoa Nellie!

As impressive as San Antonio and Austin's progress has been, the most dramatic locus for growth in the region is between the two cities. The San Marcos area, which lies at the center of the corridor, has clocked growth that is among the most rapid in the nation by several measures. Looking at population, two of the 10 fastest growing counties in the country since 2010 are located in this corridor -- Hays and Comal. Their growth rate, 4% per annum since 2010, exceeds Austin’s 3% and is almost double the growth rate of Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston.

As is usual in Texas, and most American cities, urban growth tends to expand outwards, not only for population but also for jobs. Over the past decade, Hays and Comal’s job growth rate has been an astounding 37%, outpacing Austin’s impressive 31% growth, the other Texas cities, and over six times the pace of the country overall.

Local boosters suggest that this growth will transform the San Marcos area into something like other suburban nerdistans, such as San Jose/Silicon Valley, north Dallas, Orange County and Raleigh-Durham. Certainly some of the same advantages those areas enjoyed are emerging, including the growth of Texas State University (now with over 38,000 students) as a major center of higher education.

Equally important, note researchers John Beddow and James LeSage, the central location of the San Marcos area allows families to choose from not only local jobs, but those located in both San Antonio and Austin. And to be sure, tech, education, business and professional services are all growing rapidly, but so far much of the development is lower on the food chain, such as food service and wholesale trade. Amazon, for example, just recently opened a sprawling, 855,000-square-foot warehouse in San Marcos, which is slated to employ upwards of 1,000 people.

Choices To Be Made

If you were to look for the next great American metropolis, there’s probably no better bet than the emerging San Antonio-Austin corridor. The elements are all there: major universities, including the Austin and San Antonio campuses of the University of Texas, job and population growth, low housing prices and a burgeoning tech community. Perhaps even more important, this part of Texas is only marginally tied to the energy industry, which has become a huge drag on the economy of the state’s largest city, Houston.

Yet there remain many challenges. One is transportation, particularly around freeway-allergic Austin, although San Antonio has an excellent and largely free-flowing system. The Austin bottleneck is particularly troublesome because much of the city’s growth is to the north, which means commuters living in the San Marcos region have to navigate through painfully slow freeways. Another is education, despite the university presence. San Marcos and Austin may be above the national average in terms of the percentage of college-educated residents, but San Antonio and New Braunfels, a large town south of San Marcos, still lag.

To maintain the area’s natural beauty, steps must be taken to prevent development from overrunning the Hill Country.

But none of this should stop this region from coalescing into something that represents a Texas version of Silicon Valley -- a little less dependent on the highest end of companies, less expensive and more diversified -- providing a powerful new entrant among the nerdistans that increasingly dominate our national economy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2016/10/13/the-next-great-american-metropolis-is-taking-shape-in-texas/?sh=2d0c85131e2f

Also 4 years old but on topic

RIP San Marcos. It gets busier every time I visit. Well on it's way to urban sprawl territory. 

[Redneck Mutha 7888]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Dalhart.

Dalhart is the next Austin. Book it.

Dalhart, Spain?

[Guest Lobo]

No, Utah.  

[South Austin 51976]

12 hours ago, Lobo said:

No, Utah.  

In fact, you purchased the ticket for Ms. Cavanaugh.

[CooterBrown 17852]

19 hours ago, royiv said:

While I don't think it's going to be the next Austin any time soon, Northwest Arkansas is an area that punches way above its weight class. Given the presence of Wal-Mart, Tyson and J.B. Hunt, it has amenities not found in other areas of its size. It has great cultural amenities, including Crystal Bridges, fantastic outdoor activities, a solid airport for an area its size and the presence of a large state university. 

What's interesting is the amount of 2nd home buyers that are pickup up real estate in part due to the world class mountain biking scene that has developed in, and around, Bentonville.  Some friends just closed on a house there and mountain biking was the tipping point for them picking that location.  

[Aqua Buddha 14464]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

What's interesting is the amount of 2nd home buyers that are pickup up real estate in part due to the world class mountain biking scene that has developed in, and around, Bentonville.  Some friends just closed on a house there and mountain biking was the tipping point for them picking that location.  

Correct.  I’m not kidding when I say this but on a per square foot basis, Central Bentonville is the most expensive area between Chicago and the Park Cities in Dallas.  It’s just a tier below Central Austin, Park Cities, River Oaks, etc. to compare to other expensive non coastal markets.

It’s bizarre to say that but there’s a huge gold rush going on there right now.

[Aqua Buddha 14464]

I'll add one more thing about Bentonville/Northwest Arkansas.  The cities with growth prospects offer up quality of life options and that area is one of the top mountain biking areas in the country and what separates it from the others is it's not a rural outpost.  You can actually have a job there.  Even if you're not into biking/cycling, plenty of outdoorsy stuff there if that's your thing.  Other mid sized cities that are kinda outdoorsy where you can get a job are prolly Boise and maybe Greenville, SC.  I hesitate to say Asheville because the economy there is just olds and artists.  

Bentonville/Northwest Arkansas always makes the best places to live list for most of those reasons.  Granted, Austin makes the same lists but we're talking about the "next" Austin.  

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

On 7/4/2021 at 8:56 AM, Macanudo said:

I've wondered why some of the towns and cities in NW Texas (Amarillo), NE New Mexico (Raton) and E/SE Colorado (Limon, Trinidad and Pueblo) haven't blown up.   

Say what you want about places like Amarillo or Pueblo but land is cheap to some degree and for some of those places you're only a couple of hours from tons of outdoor stuff (fishing, skiing, etc.)    In those two cities cases, you either have an airport with direct flights to Houston, DFW, OKC and Vegas (Amarillo) or you're only a short drive to one (Pueblo to Colorado Springs).   Obviously places like Raton, Trinidad and Limon are problematic with regard to air travel  but if my employer told me I could move go Trinidad I might consider it one day.  

I always find it funny that places in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama aren't usually in the mix.   I know Birmingham has gotten some love lately but I guess corporate America still just can't wrap its head around employees showing up to work sporting Confederate flag t-shirts and having to allow for spit cups on their desks.

Trinidad did turn around, and probably as much as it ever will. It's the legal weed border town for Texas....It hasn't stopped the slide in population but it has slowed it down some. When / if Texas ever legalizes, it will fall apart again....When the mines were going, Las Animas County had 32,000 people, and today it's 14,000.

[Al_4_ISU 12396]

I'll add one more thing about Bentonville/Northwest Arkansas.  The cities with growth prospects offer up quality of life options and that area is one of the top mountain biking areas in the country and what separates it from the others is it's not a rural outpost.  You can actually have a job there.  Even if you're not into biking/cycling, plenty of outdoorsy stuff there if that's your thing.  Other mid sized cities that are kinda outdoorsy where you can get a job are prolly Boise and maybe Greenville, SC.  I hesitate to say Asheville because the economy there is just olds and artists.  
Bentonville/Northwest Arkansas always makes the best places to live list for most of those reasons.  Granted, Austin makes the same lists but we're talking about the "next" Austin.  

If I had to relocate to anywhere in the country it would be NWA, but I’m a mountain biking junkie who also loves to hike and kayak. Even though a place like Austin has more cultural amenities, the superior outdoor options would win for me.

[South Austin 51976]

2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If I had to relocate to anywhere in the country it would be NWA, but I’m a mountain biking junkie who also loves to hike and kayak. Even though a place like Austin has more cultural amenities, the superior outdoor options would win for me.

I'd have to have a serious mountain biking fetish for me to move to the state of Arkansas, and even then, I'm sure I can find another promising area in the United States where the mountain biking is good.  But I am talking to a guy who lives in Iowa or thereabouts. 

[Al_4_ISU 12396]

26 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'd have to have a serious mountain biking fetish for me to move to the state of Arkansas, and even then, I'm sure I can find another promising area in the United States where the mountain biking is good.  But I am talking to a guy who lives in Iowa or thereabouts. 

Those places are all more expensive and more than a day's drive from home.  NWA is (for now) reasonably priced and about an 8 hour drive from where I live, and only 5-6 from Des Moines/Ames.

I actually live in a very under-the-radar but surprisingly nice part of the country that has high quality mountain biking considering you're in the Midwest.  The Driftless Area (intersection of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota) has similar terrain to the Ozarks with less rural poverty and has multiple world class breweries (New Glarus and Toppling Goliath the most well known) as well as excellent kayaking (Upper Iowa, Root, and Kickapoo Rivers) and really good mountain biking and paved trails for road bikes.  So I'm not actually looking to relocate, I'm just pointing out that NWA has a ton to offer people with certain hobbies and it's not really Arkansas in the sense of how anyone would view the rest of the state.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Al_4_ISU

[South Austin 51976]

16 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Those places are all more expensive and more than a day's drive from home.  NWA is (for now) reasonably priced and about an 8 hour drive from where I live, and only 5-6 from Des Moines/Ames.

I actually live in a very under-the-radar but surprisingly nice part of the country that has high quality mountain biking considering you're in the Midwest.  The Driftless Area (intersection of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota) has similar terrain to the Ozarks with less rural poverty and has multiple world class breweries (New Glarus and Toppling Goliath the most well known) as well as excellent kayaking (Upper Iowa, Root, and Kickapoo Rivers) and really good mountain biking and paved trails for road bikes.  So I'm not actually looking to relocate, I'm just pointing out that NWA has a ton to offer people with certain hobbies and it's not really Arkansas in the sense of how anyone would view the rest of the state.

Counterpoint:  It's Arkansas.

[Macanudo 12917]

51 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Counterpoint:  It's Arkansas.

For the win.  

[Aqua Buddha 14464]

Northwest Arkansas regularly makes almost every Best Places to Live list.  A lot of those other cities are significantly more expensive.

However, it should be noted that you get 30 miles in either direction and you're in the rural South that backs up every stereotype that entails.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, its geographic isolation and uniqueness is both its biggest strength and biggest weakness.  You could definitely attract mid-career talent who would appreciate raising their family in an area like that.  But I don't see how you attract young talent who are looking for other amenities besides the outdoors.  Because as y'all said above, once you leave that area...it's the deep, backwards South in every direction.  Or worse, Oklahoma.  A 25 year old tech guru can only visit Branson ironically so many times before they opt for a hipper area.  And calling University of Arkansas an intellectual talent pool is ridiculous and we're not just saying that as Texas fans.  Baton Rouge isn't gonna be the next Austin because LSU and the Capital are there.  There's more to it than that, including brainpower (or lack thereof).  

But I do see NW Arkansas only growing more, and in a good way.  And I for one hope we get a non-stop flight to that are from ABIA for recreation purposes.  

People also overlook, Austin has had many growth periods.  But the current one, where Austin becomes tech, intellection, cultural, cool place to visit, great place to relocate, this "destination hub" that it is right now, this has been going on for about 20-25 years.  This current incarnation, it's taken 25 years of pivotal growth to get here.  So while I can't see some cities/areas becoming an Austin-like destination in the next few years, there are lesser-known places that could become Austin-esque in the next quarter century for sure.  I also think there are some dying American cities that could revitalize once and for all, and come roaring back as an Austin alternative in 20 years.  

 

[StassneyHorn 6515]

Said it before but Chattanooga has a lot of things going for it and is 2 hours away from a lot of fun weekend trips if you feel like getting out.