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Which City Is The Next Austin?

Larry T. Spider

By Larry T. Spider
in Business and Markets

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gurt

gurt 796

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, royiv said:

Have you spent much time in CS? It’s very, very conservative compared to Denver. It’s not exactly progressive.

Yeah, admittedly I have only vacationed in the area and spent most of our time in Manitou Springs and up highway 24.  So maybe my characterization is way off base.  But we did go to some restaurants in the downtown area and it felt like a decent scene to me.  

 

Also, part of Austin's success has been its being a liberal city in a conservative state, attracting businesses through the conservative politics and young people through the liberal.  Maybe the same could hold true if the state is liberal and the city is conservative?  IDK, just spitballing.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14803

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Posted
1 hour ago, DonkeyCigars said:

You called out my post as if I was being dismissive. I am saying that Bentonville's development and growth and calling it new/modern/clean like a Frisco full of Arky grads was a GOOD thing.

But, beyond that, I've been to Fort Smith. No Thanks!

Seriously, I did some consulting out there. Funny story, I ended up staying a week longer than planned and I had to buy a golf shirt. I go with a coworker to the one Sam's Clubhouse in town and it became very clear and evident that this is where all the executives shop. Everyone had been wearing the same "business casual" clothes, in different colors, and golf shirts that this Sam's was hocking. 

Cool.  That makes sense.

To your story, the area has always been very uniform until very recently.  The (un)official uniform at WMT was khaki pants, blazer, with blue shirt.  I think I remember the Greg Norman golf polo's at that Sam's you're talking about.  They got some big diverted buy and everyone in town had one.  The area has become more "quirky" in a good way.  The art scene has really helped with that.  It's kind of like Asheville in that regard but with a bigger corporate presence.  (Asheville has none and is basically hippies and upscale retirees.)

As for Colorado Springs, it's very evangelical.  Hard pass.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:41 AM, LABEVO said:

Click bait, blah blah

https://www.itpro.com/business-strategy/careers-training/355952/7-great-cities-for-tech-jobs

Ha they had Columbus, Ohio in the top 7 for Tech 

Quote

Tech Job Postings: 3,277 (14th)

Average Tech Salary: $92,017 (17th)

Cost of living index: 70.92

While Columbus, Ohio may not be on your radar, it’s popped up on a lot of other people’s radar. As a growing tech hub, people are starting to see the appeal of the Buckeye state’s capital.

Home to Ohio State, you’ll never lack for football talk in Columbus. You shouldn’t lack for a job either, as it ranks 14th for tech job postings and has the 17th best average salary.

With a solid cost of living index, Columbus is another city where you can live well with the money you make. You just have to be ready for a little snow now and then.

 

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orangecat92

orangecat92 306

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Posted
On 2/19/2021 at 5:23 AM, CooterBrown said:

There's one thing that attracts companies above all else...the availability of potential employees.  A few years ago, there was an article that had polled companies on why they relocated and tax cuts and benefits didn't even make the top 10.  Far and away the number one answer was it was a place that attracted the employees they needed.

I think driving that would be a solid education base from K-12 (attractive to families) and higher education (multiple universities with graduates to draw from).  Say what you will about the shit pockets of schools, overall, the Austin area has some really strong performers in the K-12 area.  Obviously, Texas is the big dog for higher education but there's also many other universities within a short distance constantly pumping out graduates looking to move to Austin.

What'll be interesting is that if remote working is here to stay, will you see any more big boom cities built on tech companies with the exception of those with manufacturing?  Future companies may just all be HQ'd in Delaware or offshore with the majority of employees remote. 

Just found this thread and am in total agreement about education.   One place I am very familiar with has a great amount of competition in the pre-K-12 education.  That is McKinney.  My wife and brand new baby moved to Sherman, which is 35 miles north of McKinney, in 1996.  Mckinney was nothing, probably 34,000 people.  Three years later we found ourselves with another baby and we moved to McKinney.  I couldn’t stand the wasted dollars on extra counselors, admin. 70 million $ football stadium, etc. in the ISD.  I was so happy to move to Alaska, but the reality is the number one factor in the excessive spending was competition from Frisco ISD.  

Sometime since I left in 18 Mckinney topped 200,000 residents.  McKinney has a whole bunch of land still to be developed.  

Frisco has all of the pro sports you could want, right next to McKinney, and between the two districts, you have more than enough college and career ready young people.

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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Posted
3 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

% of population with graduate degree........................Austin Msa.  16%.....McKinney.....15%

%.  of population with at least bachelors degree        Austin.........46.........McKinney.....47

nearly identical

People are strongly encouraged to move to McKinney.

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Texas St. Armadillos

Texas St. Armadillos 1388

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I visited Charleston, WV last year before the pandemic.  Downtown was clean, and had a decent little bar and restaurant area.   Right on the river.  Really beautiful with the mountains, bridges, and river.  Four distinct seasons.  State Capitol.  Downsides: even with airport 5 min from downtown, can still be tough to get to.  The area (and state) are so poor and there are addition problems all over the place.  Would need a massive influx of cash (like mentioned before with Bentonville and Raleigh).  

Really pretty and West Virginians are good folks if you get to know them.  I could see it growing up eventually, but would need a massive company or industry to develop there.

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 6166

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Richmond--was cheap, had colleges, a river, outdoor shit to do, concerts outdoors and indoors, lots of art and art/musicians, frisbee golf, lots of small, local restaurants/shops, breweries out the wazoo and super bikeable.  I may retire there.  

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ztejas

ztejas 44223

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9 minutes ago, NIUHuskies said:

When does Reno/Carson City get into the game?

Other cities to consider:

Providence

Bloomington, Indiana 

Mobile, Alabama

Rapid City, SD

Albuquerque 

Idk if this is innocent naivete or intentional smartassery but either way it's great and made me chuckle so have a rep.

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Slacks

Slacks 7047

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Posted

Look for: jobs, education, tax breaks, segregation, no major natural disasters...

Birmingham might just be the winner. If there isn't one or two already, I expect a chip mfg to move in to support the auto industry.

I don't know why Raleigh-Durham hasn't taken off.

I guess the shortcoming for both is limited cultural/arts options...

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3607

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Posted
Sounds like Missoula is next. 

Pretty much from what I have heard. GWe built a new house in Boise in 2015 for $122 a sq ft. Could probably sell now for about $300+ a sq ft. Micron corporate headquarters are about 3 miles away, as is Albertsons, big HP factory 10 miles away and the Cali folks are coming in looking to buy with cash since inventory is so limited.
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Tobias

Tobias 20

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Yeah, admittedly I have only vacationed in the area and spent most of our time in Manitou Springs and up highway 24.  So maybe my characterization is way off base.  But we did go to some restaurants in the downtown area and it felt like a decent scene to me.  
 
Also, part of Austin's success has been its being a liberal city in a conservative state, attracting businesses through the conservative politics and young people through the liberal.  Maybe the same could hold true if the state is liberal and the city is conservative?  IDK, just spitballing.


CS is a conservative city in a conservative state, Denver/I25N are the outliers
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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11817

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4 hours ago, shnsajax said:


Pretty much from what I have heard. GWe built a new house in Boise in 2015 for $122 a sq ft. Could probably sell now for about $300+ a sq ft. Micron corporate headquarters are about 3 miles away, as is Albertsons, big HP factory 10 miles away and the Cali folks are coming in looking to buy with cash since inventory is so limited.

There was a recent Planet Money on the housing market in Missoula. Basically what you described. California people are snatching up everything with cash offers. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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14 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:
1960 340,887   4.6%
1970 300,910   −11.7%
1980 284,413   −5.5%
1990 265,968   −6.5%
2000 242,840   −8.7%
2010 212,237   −12.6%
2019 (est.) 209,403 [3] −1.3%


Birmingham has actually been shrinking.

Probably because it's a shithole.  We've rebuilt entire nations since WWII and we can't get most of the Southeast part of this country to read.  There's a reason for that.  Stupid people are always gonna be stupid.  

Boise has some potential though. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Tennessee really does have some great towns.  But if there's any truth to those corporate studies that say #1, #2, and #3 reasons for moving/establishing a physical presence in a city is talent, talent, and talent.  Then Tennessee better put on some kinda show, 'cause they ain't got 50 people in that whole fucking state can complete a sentence. 

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bolverk

bolverk 30314

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Posted (edited)

Cool topic to discuss and argue about.

I went back to the OP to get some parameters and he mentions Austin starting about 1980, so I took that cue to look at the Austin metro's population then versus now to get a grip on what kind of change would need to be replicated.

The five-county Austin MSA that we know today was about 585,000 in 1980 but it was already on a hot streak having grown 47 percent in the previous decade from 400,000 in 1970. In 2019, we were 2.23 million and were likely pushing close to 2.30 million by the time the 2020 Census rolled around.

I'm not so sure any of the candidates in that ballpark population range of 600,000 can nearly quadruple in size over the next 40 years, so I decided to just look at any broad metropolitan region between half a million and one million that could have a shot at hitting two million by 2060. Here is a list of candidates that are in that population range that are already on a population hot streak (like Austin was in 1980) of roughly double digit growth over the last decade, as well as the major economic development assets that I'm aware of which could be growth drivers.

Omaha 986,007 9.31%  Nebraska & capital city are close
McAllen/Edinburg 933,340 11.68%  Trade/UTRGV/what about water?
Des Moines/Ames 877,991 12.85%  Iowa State/capital/back office
Boise City 831,235 19.17%  Boise State/capital city/tech
Charleston 802,122 20.69%  Citadel/port/tourism?
Colorado Springs 745,791 15.52%  AFA/swallowed by Denver
Spokane/Coeur d'Alene 734,218 12.40%  ????
Reno/Carson City 637,973 10.06%  Nevada/capital city
Huntsville AL 624,427 9.28%  UA Huntsville/aerospace
Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville 601,942 10.78%  Kennedy Space Center
Savannah 583,882 11.04%  Savannah State/port
Myrtle Beach/Conway 553,505 26.69%  Coastal Carolina
Pensacola 539,292 10.67%  Pensacola State
Fayetteville/Springdale 534,904 21.54%  Arky/Walmart

I'm kind of wary of a lot of those coastal areas, because their growth is probably being driven by retirees and tourism, plus rising sea levels. I just don't see that as being a sustainable situation but could be wrong.

The bolded ones look at first glance like they might have the best long-term prospects for being the "next Austin" based on this simple assessment (I discounted Colo Springs because it's going to pretty much lose its identity and just be another lump in the agglomeration spreading along the Front Range that's completely dominated by Denver). And honestly I kinda don't see it happening in Omaha, Des Moines, or Reno/Carson City for various reasons, especially Omaha. Reno just seems to be getting some spillover due to proximity to the Bay Area, and I don't think the University of Nevada and tax breaks for Californian companies will carry them for long. Des Moines, while served by a pretty good school up the road a bit in Ames, seems like it's getting some buzz in the Midwest and is getting some back office business from the Chicago area.

That leaves us with the already frequently cited triad of NW Arkansas, Huntsville, and Boise. I think all are going to continue to boom for all the reasons listed by others, but only NW Arkansas is backed by a major state university and the presence of a corporate behemoth that (if diversified) could sustain the necessary economic spinoff to drive growth for the next 40 years and reach 2 million by 2060. But, of course, Wal-Mart could go the ways of Sears & Roebuck if they're not careful.

That's my two cents and I'll fight you if you disagree.

Edited by bolverk
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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

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Quote

And honestly I kinda don't see it happening in Omaha, Des Moines, or Reno/Carson City for various reasons, especially Omaha. Reno just seems to be getting some spillover due to proximity to the Bay Area, and I don't think the University of Nevada and tax breaks for Californian companies will carry them for long. Des Moines, while served by a pretty good school up the road a bit in Ames, seems like it's getting some buzz in the Midwest and is getting some back office business from the Chicago area.

I spent the last month in Omaha on a project. I stayed in/around the "Capital District" and it just was not happening. I don't believe this city is the next one either. The biggest employers are like an agriculture company, hospitals, and a railroad.

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bolverk

bolverk 30314

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Posted
6 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

I spent the last month in Omaha on a project. I stayed in/around the "Capital District" and it just was not happening. I don't believe this city is the next one either. The biggest employers are like an agriculture company, hospitals, and a railroad.

I really don't know anything about Omaha since I've never been there. Pretty much the only image in my mind of that city comes from the opening winter scene of that Jack Nicholson movie "About Schmidt" that makes it look like one of the most dreary places on the planet.

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14803

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Posted
On 4/19/2021 at 4:03 PM, bolverk said:

Cool topic to discuss and argue about.

I went back to the OP to get some parameters and he mentions Austin starting about 1980, so I took that cue to look at the Austin metro's population then versus now to get a grip on what kind of change would need to be replicated.

The five-county Austin MSA that we know today was about 585,000 in 1980 but it was already on a hot streak having grown 47 percent in the previous decade from 400,000 in 1970. In 2019, we were 2.23 million and were likely pushing close to 2.30 million by the time the 2020 Census rolled around.

I'm not so sure any of the candidates in that ballpark population range of 600,000 can nearly quadruple in size over the next 40 years, so I decided to just look at any broad metropolitan region between half a million and one million that could have a shot at hitting two million by 2060. Here is a list of candidates that are in that population range that are already on a population hot streak (like Austin was in 1980) of roughly double digit growth over the last decade, as well as the major economic development assets that I'm aware of which could be growth drivers.

Omaha 986,007 9.31%  Nebraska & capital city are close
McAllen/Edinburg 933,340 11.68%  Trade/UTRGV/what about water?
Des Moines/Ames 877,991 12.85%  Iowa State/capital/back office
Boise City 831,235 19.17%  Boise State/capital city/tech
Charleston 802,122 20.69%  Citadel/port/tourism?
Colorado Springs 745,791 15.52%  AFA/swallowed by Denver
Spokane/Coeur d'Alene 734,218 12.40%  ????
Reno/Carson City 637,973 10.06%  Nevada/capital city
Huntsville AL 624,427 9.28%  UA Huntsville/aerospace
Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville 601,942 10.78%  Kennedy Space Center
Savannah 583,882 11.04%  Savannah State/port
Myrtle Beach/Conway 553,505 26.69%  Coastal Carolina
Pensacola 539,292 10.67%  Pensacola State
Fayetteville/Springdale 534,904 21.54%  Arky/Walmart

I'm kind of wary of a lot of those coastal areas, because their growth is probably being driven by retirees and tourism, plus rising sea levels. I just don't see that as being a sustainable situation but could be wrong.

The bolded ones look at first glance like they might have the best long-term prospects for being the "next Austin" based on this simple assessment (I discounted Colo Springs because it's going to pretty much lose its identity and just be another lump in the agglomeration spreading along the Front Range that's completely dominated by Denver). And honestly I kinda don't see it happening in Omaha, Des Moines, or Reno/Carson City for various reasons, especially Omaha. Reno just seems to be getting some spillover due to proximity to the Bay Area, and I don't think the University of Nevada and tax breaks for Californian companies will carry them for long. Des Moines, while served by a pretty good school up the road a bit in Ames, seems like it's getting some buzz in the Midwest and is getting some back office business from the Chicago area.

That leaves us with the already frequently cited triad of NW Arkansas, Huntsville, and Boise. I think all are going to continue to boom for all the reasons listed by others, but only NW Arkansas is backed by a major state university and the presence of a corporate behemoth that (if diversified) could sustain the necessary economic spinoff to drive growth for the next 40 years and reach 2 million by 2060. But, of course, Wal-Mart could go the ways of Sears & Roebuck if they're not careful.

That's my two cents and I'll fight you if you disagree.

Most excellent write up, especially in regards to the bolded markets.  For a market to boom like we're talking about, you need industry.  Austin was a state capital and had tech.  Atlanta (also a state capital) had numerous major corporations.  Markets like Charleston (which I love), really have no industry outside of the port and taking care of olds.  You'll get market growth but a bifurcated economy with rich retirees and service workers mixed in with health care for said olds.

That leaves really just Boise and Northwest Arkansas.  If Boise can garner enough CA transplants, they could have a thriving tech industry.  As the resident expert on Northwest Arkansas, their challenge is just what you mentioned in that they need to diversify their economy.  They've known that for years and have had some successes and failures.  (You forgot to mention both Tyson and JB Hunt being there but I could make the case they're also in that WMT universe to a degree.  The economy is either WMT or selling stuff to WMT or moving stuff for WMT.)  They've made gains in tourism and art, though.  Desperately trying for tech start ups with not much success.

As far as the affordability question, if you're wanting to live in actual Bentonville, then you will be in for a rude awakening.  However, it's still somewhat affordable if you're OK with a cow pasture subdivision house surrounded by some strip malls.  Those are still relatively cheap compared to most major markets.  

 

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bolverk

bolverk 30314

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Cajun said:

As long as people from Waco live in Waco, I will never regret "sleeping" on Waco.

Yeah, that's kind of actually a thing about why some communities progress and grow more than others beyond any economic development assets or other competitive advantages. The local culture has to allow for and promote openness to new ideas, innovation, and outsiders. Otherwise a community will just stagnate and rot on the vine.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

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Posted
On 2/19/2021 at 12:20 AM, DonkeyCigars said:

I thought it was going to be Nashville. Still could be, but COVID-19 definitely seemed to slow their momentum. Still with Amazon bringing in the de facto HQ2 lite after the Long Island City fiasco as well as it becoming a destination for young, smart southeastern types who are too hip for Buckhead/Atlanta, it was getting a lot of Old Austin, buzz and energy, especially around the Gulch from what I say 2017-2019. They are still only ~700k population and could get to 1mm like Austin I guess, but they already have major sports, so do they count?

Boise I mentioned on another thread has historically been hamstrung with having a population, and university, which is mediocre. Boise State is ranked like a Texas Tech I think (or worse). But maybe with the expats in California bringing some of those Stanford/UCX brains they can build out (or maybe have already?) a solid foundation. One thing that I think has helped Austin grow the past 30 years is the trajectory of growth, businesses, etc. matched the growth in UT evolving from a decent/average state school to a globally ranked reputation. Boise just doesn't have that foundation and a young, smart (and cheap labor) person factory.

Salt Lake City does. So I guess my vote goes to SLC. though it's metro pop. is already like 1.3mm, and they've already carved out a nice little niche reputation in tech, so not sure that counts.

In both Utah and Idaho's case, while still very liberal compared to Texas, there are definitely conservative areas and way more political diversity than in California which is probably integral for the next boom city (e.g. favorable tax situations, pro-business, etc. while still being socially liberal and Patagonia-vest friendly).

I thought Omaha or Des Moines would eventually grow up a little bit as well and get some legacy modernization religion but they don't seem to make any noise outside of like the insurance industry or food industries.

I've also heard both Columbia and Charleston, SC are doing well with attracting young, smart folks and becoming a growing area in the same vein as Nashville, in that it's an Atlanta alternative for people who don't want to deal with what Atlanta has become/is becoming. CapGemini just opened a world-class delivery center in Columbia which rivals anything I've seen in any "real" city, for example and I know it's a school that is on nobody in Texas' radar or relationship/social circle, but apparently U of SoCarolina is a pretty decent school with a well respected undergrad business school.

I wish I knew or had a strong point of view on the next Austin though, because I'd buy up some property and retire in 20 years.

Des Moines continues to grow steadily and has a growing tech sector.

It's not the next Austin, but it's surprisingly happening and out punches slightly larger similar metros, like Omaha specifically, from a cultural standpoint.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12623

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On 4/16/2021 at 3:25 PM, Texas St. Armadillos said:

I visited Charleston, WV last year before the pandemic.  Downtown was clean, and had a decent little bar and restaurant area.   Right on the river.  Really beautiful with the mountains, bridges, and river.  Four distinct seasons.  State Capitol.  Downsides: even with airport 5 min from downtown, can still be tough to get to.  The area (and state) are so poor and there are addition problems all over the place.  Would need a massive influx of cash (like mentioned before with Bentonville and Raleigh).  

Really pretty and West Virginians are good folks if you get to know them.  I could see it growing up eventually, but would need a massive company or industry to develop there.

I've been through Charleston, and while I think you nail it's upside, I think geography makes it hard to expand.  It's just so damn rugged in that area that expanding it would be tough as hell.

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bolverk

bolverk 30314

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Posted (edited)

@CajunHeard this a couple of days ago for the first time and thought of you.

[Verse 1]
It was the dead of summer, I was only 19
Dead broke as usual, my buddy Kevin and me
On a particularly dead weekend
We decided to hop on the bus and ride
Headin' on down to Austin town
Searchin' for a little light

[Verse 2]
We caught a greyhound bus for a non-stop trip
Shuffled back to the back where the AC is and it's cold as a crypt
Two seats up sat a man in a hoodie
Who looked at me like modern death
I may never know why, but within the hour
That poor man was dead

[Pre-Chorus]
And I said this prayer:
I said: "Lord...

[Chorus]
Don't let me die in Waco
Anywhere but there
I'd sooner die a Sooner or a dumbass Aggie
Than to go in the land of the Baylor Bear
Don't let me die in Waco
Bus driver, just drive
Well if I start to smell, just spray me with Febreze
But give me one more hour down on 35

[Verse 3]
We finally made it to Austin after that harrowing ride
Still searching for a lively weekend
To celebrate loving life
We found good reason, of an unlikely sort
Some lucky cuss had gone out partying
Just the night before

[Verse 4]
A drunken fall from a balcony that took a frat boy's life
His friends were all in mourning until we arrived
I said "It could be a whole lot worse, friends
For he died as he lived
A Longhorn proud, in Bevo's name
Hook 'em, amen."

[Chorus]
Don't let me die in Waco
Anywhere but there
I'd sooner die a Sooner or a dumbass Aggie
Than to go in the land of the Baylor Bear
Don't let me die in Waco
Bus driver, just drive
Well if I start to smell, just spray me with Febreze
But give me one more hour down on 35

[Chorus]
Don't let me die in Waco
Anywhere but there
I'd sooner die a Sooner or a dumbass Aggie
Than to go in the land of the Baylor Bear
Don't let me die in Waco
Bus driver, just drive
Well if I start to smell, just spray me with Febreze
But give me one more hour down on 35

[Outro]
Well if I start to smell, just spray me with Febreze
But give me one more hour down on 35
Lord, please

Edited by bolverk
lyrics
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KYHorn

KYHorn 17613

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Posted
17 hours ago, bolverk said:

Des Moines!!! @Al_4_ISU

(If anyone has a subscription, I'd appreciate you posting the article.)

Spoiler

They also have a mix of high-tech jobs and old-line industries, including manufacturing and finance, that turned out to be more resistant to the downturn. They came through the year with fewer job losses and service cuts, and made quicker recoveries.

“They offer a lot of things you can’t really get in the big city,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo & Co. “They’re more affordable, and it’s so much easier to live there. And all of these industries are poised to do very well.”

The pandemic-fueled flow of jobs and residents out of New York, San Francisco and other large coastal cities will subside and likely eventually reverse, economists say. But the economies in some of these smaller metro areas have staying power.

In Greenville, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, well below the national rate of 6.0% that month, according to the Labor Department. The national unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in April.

Jobs in the Greenville region grew 11.9% by March from a recent low point in April 2020, compared with the growth rate of 10.7% for the country as a whole. The country’s job growth had reached 10.9% by April 2021 from the year earlier low.

In Des Moines, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at 4.1% in March. Provo had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S. that month, at 2.5%. The March payrolls set a record high.

The cities’ technology and financial jobs shifted easily into remote work, and manufacturers were able to restart production relatively quickly. Many of the best-performing cities are located in states that had shorter lockdowns and fewer restrictions. And while many were hurt by the loss of visitors to local restaurants and shops, few have centered their economies around tourism.

In many parts of the country, businesses are having a hard time finding workers to fill jobs as the economy starts to come out of the pandemic. The very low unemployment rates in these cities could bode shortages in the labor pool down the line. But their ability to draw new residents, and the fact that they lost fewer workers during shorter shutdowns, could ease the crunch.

Greenville may be the best example of these rising stars, which also include places like Madison, Wis., Fort Myers, Fla., and Columbus, Ohio.

Greenville sits midway on the four-hour stretch of Interstate 85 between Charlotte, N.C., and Atlanta. It is near the Blue Ridge Mountains, in the northwestern region of South Carolina known as Upstate, and over the past several decades has drawn both residents and international companies in search of lower costs and business opportunities a short drive from larger cities. Those strengths were accentuated by the pandemic.

When venture-capitalist Cliff Holekamp sent his staff home from an office tower in downtown St. Louis in March 2020, he realized he could live anywhere. He chose Greenville.

“My Greenville story started with Covid,” he said. “We were looking for a different lifestyle.”

Mr. Holekamp yearned for a community with lighter traffic and the opportunity to live comfortably near the city’s urban core in a picturesque setting. He and his wife considered a half-dozen states, including Arizona, Texas and Georgia, contacting schools and business leaders, and plotted out their relative strengths and weaknesses.

He also figured his firm, Cultivation Capital, like so many office-dwelling companies, might never fully return to its downtown building. And as a firm that specialized in finding promising investments in underdeveloped markets, it made sense for partners to spread out, he said. He also set out to find a new home with a healthy community of young businesses that might offer his firm investment opportunities.

Mr. Holekamp’s analysis pointed to Greenville. In the end, he was sold by downtown Greenville’s Falls Park, a patch of meandering trails, bike paths, waterfalls and greenery along the Reedy River. “It really is one of the prettiest city centers in the U.S.,” Mr. Holekamp said.

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Cliff Holekamp in Greenville’s Falls Park, which was one of the reasons he moved there.

By January, the co-founder and general partner of Cultivation was settling into his new home there.

Twenty years ago, the former textile town was pockmarked by vacant storefronts and Falls Park was overgrown, with the river’s cascades hidden under an overpass. The city set about recruiting international companies and rebuilding the downtown. In recent years, small businesses have returned to Main Street, larger companies joined Michelin SA and BMW AG in the area and the river has become a centerpiece.

Greenville, Des Moines and Provo, like many midsize cities, had fewer job losses and have bounced back more quickly than the country as a whole

Michelin first came to Greenville in 1975, eventually establishing the French tire maker’s North American headquarters there. In 1992, BMW built its first full manufacturing plant outside Germany nearby. Now more than 120 automotive companies operate in the area, providing a range of good-paying jobs while attracting technical and engineering talent and international investment.

BMW’s plant in Greer, S.C., supports more than 100,000 U.S. jobs., contributing $38.5 billion to the nation’s economy, according to a January 2018 study by the University of South Carolina. The plant reopened in May 2020 and quickly ramped up production, building nearly 218,000 vehicles in the second half of 2020—a record for any six-month period in its history.

“Demand for vehicles should remain strong, especially if preferences shift away from cities, and South Carolina is the type of low-cost state [for producers] that is unlikely to be threatened by more-expensive areas,” said Adam Kamins, economist at Moody’s Analytics. “A virtuous cycle seems to have taken hold in Greenville.”

The presence of nearby suppliers and other automotive manufacturers, a deep pool of skilled workers and a direct rail line to the port of Charleston are reasons Proterra Inc., an electric-vehicle company, moved to Greenville.

The company, which opened its first bus-making factory there in 2011, now employs more than 350 in Greenville. Demand for its technology is surging, and the company hopes to add a second shift of assembly workers to increase production, said Jack Allen, Proterra’s chief executive.

In January, a blank-check company backed by ArcLight Capital Partners agreed to buy Proterra and take it public. President Biden took a virtual tour of the plant in April when touting his infrastructure and jobs plan.

“Greenville has played a critical role in our successes,” Mr. Allen said.

DC BLOX, an Atlanta-based builder and operator of data centers, picked Greenville as the site of its fifth location last summer after a two-year search throughout the Southeast, said Bill Thomson, the company’s vice president of marketing and product management. Upstate South Carolina offered a skilled workforce and a mix of companies eager to outsource some of their technology needs, Mr. Thomson said.

Kenzie Biggins, who moved to Greenville in 2017, figured her startup would get more attention in the smaller city than it would had she stayed in Atlanta. She joined the local Chamber of Commerce’s minority business accelerator program, which gave her access to a team of advisers and a yearlong business coach.

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Kenzie Biggins in her home office in Greenville. She moved her business there from Atlanta.

More than 110 participants have graduated from the program, which was started in 2013, in industries ranging from healthcare and food services to information technology.

“I felt there was an opportunity in Greenville for Black business owners to take the main stage,” she said.

Ms. Biggins’s company, Worxbee, matches a team of executive assistants with small businesses, nonprofits and retired managers. Each of her 28 assistants works with two or three clients, all virtually.

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Ms. Biggins said the move to remote work has helped her business, which provides virtual executive assistants.

The first few months of the pandemic were difficult, she said, as businesses muddled through the economic downturn and looked to slash costs. Then, she said, many began to embrace remote work and the likelihood it would become a bigger part of their employees’ future. Worxbee has flourished, Ms. Biggins said. The company is on pace to hit $1 million in annual revenue and expects its team of assistants to reach 100 in the next year.

A burgeoning tech industry coupled with the desire to escape crowded cities helped add jobs and residents to Provo in the past year.

The city, on the western edge of the Rockies and a 45-minute drive south of Salt Lake City, has long been a destination for young professionals looking to leave the coasts for a less-expensive place to live. The mountains and nearby national and state parks became even more appealing during the pandemic, and the ability to work remotely made it an easy location for high-tech workers and others.

Facebook and other companies have offices along central Utah’s tech corridor, known as “Silicon Slopes.” Software pioneers Novell Inc. and WordPerfect were founded there, and their success encouraged entrepreneurs to join them.

Omniture Inc., a web-analytics firm based in nearby Orem, was acquired by Adobe Systems in 2009. Provo’s Qualtrics, another enterprise-software company co-founded by a student at Brigham Young University, one of the universities in town, was acquired by SAP SE a decade later. That BYU graduate, Ryan Smith, recently agreed to buy a majority stake in the Utah Jazz basketball team, based in Salt Lake City.

Provo-area software firm Fishbowl Solutions LLC has benefited from the talent emerging from the region’s large universities and a tech-forward business community. Fishbowl added 15 employees last year, when it had the biggest revenue gain in its 20-year history. Its workforce now totals 195.

But the city has seen a shortage of workers. “There’s a lot of output of tech professionals from the two universities nearby, but even with that, it’s been a struggle to find enough development staff,” said John David King, Fishbowl’s chief executive. “We’ve done quite a bit of hiring, and some of those have been from out of state.”

The move to remote work made it possible for them to bring in staff who live elsewhere, something the company wouldn’t have considered before the pandemic, Mr. King said.

The city has been able to attract newcomers with its growing businesses and outdoor amenities. The area’s labor force has grown 37% in the past decade, compared with a 5% gain for the U.S.

Provo’s population overall has expanded by more than 20% in the past decade. There are only 120 residents per square mile in the broader Provo metro area—a third the density of Portland, and one-fourth of Austin’s, according to Moody’s Analytics—and there is surrounding land for the city to expand. But Provo’s urban center is unmistakably busier.

Utah had seen the population boom coming. The state consistently ranks first in the nation in household size, and Provo itself has an average age of 25, one of the youngest of any large U.S. city, according to census data.

In the late 1990s, nonprofit group Envision Utah was formed to develop ideas to handle growth in areas including housing, schools, air quality and traffic.

Population in Utah County, where Provo is located, is expected to double by 2050, said Ari Bruening, Envision Utah’s chief executive. The group surveyed thousands of residents about their needs and concerns and unveiled its findings last fall, he said, in what could be guidance for policy makers. The report pointed out the need for smaller residential properties, better roads and public transportation, and additional economic centers accessible by foot.

Central Iowa doesn’t have the draw of the Rockies, but its economy shares many of the same advantages as Provo: lighter population densities, an abundance of young college graduates and a large number of companies eager to hire them. In Des Moines, a cluster of financial firms has helped the city endure the slowdown.

Some 32% of jobs in the Des Moines area, which has a population of about 700,000, require at least a college degree, a share similar to Chicago, according to data compiled by Moody’s Analytics. Some 14% of the area’s jobs are in finance—a higher percentage than New York City, said Karl Kuykendall, an economist for IHS Markit.

The area’s first insurers arrived in Des Moines more than a century ago to meet demand from Midwesterners looking for regional carriers. Their presence, along with favorable state regulations and a lower cost of living than the insurance capitals of the Northeast, drew many more.

“There is an abundance of actuaries, finance and investment professionals and accounting majors within a 50-100 mile radius,” said Dan Houston, chief executive of Principal Financial Group, which was founded in Des Moines in 1879.

As Principal and other regional companies shifted to remote work last spring, they noticed a number of native Iowans working elsewhere had returned home. Mr. Houston said he knew of at least a dozen friends and neighbors whose adult children had come back, at least temporarily.

“There’s been a full-court press to try to recruit them” for local jobs, he said, noting the homecomings gave former Iowans the opportunity to see how Des Moines’s urban core has developed in the years since they left home.

Kelly Mackay, an advertising-sales executive, is among the converted. The 30-year-old Des Moines native left her one-bedroom apartment in Chicago, about a five-hour drive away, last spring to spend the early days of the lockdown with her boyfriend, who had relocated to Des Moines earlier that year for his job at Deere & Co., the farm-equipment giant.

During the stay she rediscovered Des Moines, this time as an adult. “A lot has changed,” she said. “There are new bars, and a new food scene. Something’s happening here.” Last fall, Ms. Mackay bought a 2,200-square-foot home for what she said would have been roughly the cost of a one-bedroom condominium in Chicago. She is still working for her Chicago-based firm, but plans to stay in Des Moines.

In Greenville, the housing market is booming. The median January home sale price was 16% higher than it was a year earlier—the national median home price rose 5.3% in that time—and the inventory of available homes for sale had fallen 17%. The growth was driven in part by the influx of newcomers, said Jacob Mann, a real-estate agent at Coldwell Banker Caine.

Michael Arcieri and his wife left the New York area last spring to ride out the pandemic in the Greenville region. The Arcieris were living in Jersey City, N.J., in a high-rise apartment with views of Manhattan.

The couple, with a baby on the way, intended to stay with family for a few weeks in Mauldin, S.C., a town a few miles outside Greenville. Their visit stretched to months, and their daughter was born in South Carolina in May 2020.

The couple bought a four-bedroom house five minutes from Greenville’s downtown last fall for $850,000, much more space than what that amount would bring in Jersey City, and with much lower property taxes.

“We were paying an arm and a leg to live in New York or New Jersey, because that’s where the jobs are,” Mr. Arcieri said. “But that’s just not the case anymore.”

 

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18287

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I’m impressed with San Antonio. A big city but the talent density, cost of living, etc is strong. Lots of startups are being funded there too

The talent density is not strong. It barely exists. There’s a reason why San Antonio’s homegrown Rackspace, about a decade ago, announced they’d hire 5,000 tech positions locally and then had to move nearly every vacancy to Austin. There was no one to even fill them. They were even bussing staff down from Austin to SA daily to work positions that had to be onsite.
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bolverk

bolverk 30314

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21 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:


The talent density is not strong. It barely exists. There’s a reason why San Antonio’s homegrown Rackspace, about a decade ago, announced they’d hire 5,000 tech positions locally and then had to move nearly every vacancy to Austin. There was no one to even fill them. They were even bussing staff down from Austin to SA daily to work positions that had to be onsite.

I know next to nothing about the tech scene in SA. Do you see that situation changing in the future, given the cost of living in Austin and its proximity to us? It seems that it'd make sense for some operations to be shipped down there if they could grow/retain/attract the talent.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I like San Antonio.  Have family and friends there.  Even lived there for a few stints in the 90's totaling about 15-18 months.  

But the whole "San Antonio is the next boom in America" thing is decades old already.  I've been hearing about it being the next tech center, the next hip city, the next real estate mecca, the next this, the next that.  It's fine the way it is and people there love it.  

San Antonio reminds me of what deGaulle said about Brazil.  "San Antonio has great potential.  And it always will."  

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

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49 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:


The talent density is not strong. It barely exists. There’s a reason why San Antonio’s homegrown Rackspace, about a decade ago, announced they’d hire 5,000 tech positions locally and then had to move nearly every vacancy to Austin. There was no one to even fill them. They were even bussing staff down from Austin to SA daily to work positions that had to be onsite.

i believed this until very recently. my view is in the past 2-3 years has changed a lot for the city.

the joke is that SA is closer to Austin than Houston is to itself. so even if SA struggles, i think proximity will drive positives for SA

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