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Seeded tournament thread of Win

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

Posted
Posted (edited)
Team Poster
Clemson BigOrange1
Florida St. BigOrange1
Illinois BigOrange1
Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern BigOrange1
Ohio St. BigOrange1
Oklahoma BigOrange1
Oklahoma St. BigOrange1
Texas Tech BigOrange1
BYU HornOnTheBayou
Florida HornOnTheBayou
Oral Roberts HornOnTheBayou
San Diego St. HornOnTheBayou
St. Bonaventure HornOnTheBayou
UNC-Greensboro HornOnTheBayou
Villanova HornOnTheBayou
Wisconsin HornOnTheBayou
Colgate Huckleberry
Georgia Tech Huckleberry
Hartford Huckleberry
Iowa Huckleberry
Oregon St. Huckleberry
Rutgers Huckleberry
Syracuse Huckleberry
Virginia Tech Huckleberry
Georgetown Jack Straw
Iona Jack Straw
Kansas Jack Straw
Loyola-Chicago Jack Straw
Morehead St. Jack Straw
North Carolina Jack Straw
Texas Jack Straw
Virginia Commonwealth Jack Straw
Gonzaga joeycovers
Grand Canyon joeycovers
Maryland joeycovers
Missouri joeycovers
North Texas joeycovers
UC-Santa Barbara joeycovers
Utah St. joeycovers
Winthrop joeycovers
Alabama Prepuce of Doom
Cleveland St. Prepuce of Doom
Eastern Washington Prepuce of Doom
Liberty Prepuce of Doom
LSU Prepuce of Doom
Michigan St./UCLA Prepuce of Doom
Ohio Prepuce of Doom
Oregon Prepuce of Doom
Abilene Christian shadow_operative
Arkansas shadow_operative
Connecticut shadow_operative
Houston shadow_operative
Michigan shadow_operative
Norfolk St./Appalachian St. shadow_operative
Purdue shadow_operative
Virginia shadow_operative
Baylor Wulaw Horn
Colorado Wulaw Horn
Creighton Wulaw Horn
Drake/Wichita St. Wulaw Horn
Drexel Wulaw Horn
Southern Cal Wulaw Horn
Tennessee Wulaw Horn
West Virginia Wulaw Horn
Edited by Huckleberry
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

Posted
Posted (edited)

System draft rankings:

Huckleberry - 108.09
HornOnTheBayou - 77.83
Wulaw Horn - 77.30
BigOrange1 - 66.36
Jack Straw - 62.94
shadow_operative - 62.70
Prepuce of Doom - 56.84
joeycovers - 55.79

 

GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT WARNING - 35 of my points are Colgate. Hahaha. Also, obviously I'm ahead because I use my system. I'm always 1st in this and I've won the thing exactly once.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Is "the system" proprietary and confidential information? 

If not, care to share how it's weighted, executed, etc.? 

Standard Adjusted Stats calculations. First calculate a normal power rating then go back through and calculate every team's standard deviation of performance. Then use those two values for each team to calculate the probability of each team winning each matchup. 

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6436

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Huck/ can you post your draft order and expected points for All 64 teams now that we are done?

Always interesting. 

 

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

System draft rankings:

Huckleberry - 108.09
HornOnTheBayou - 77.83
Wulaw Horn - 77.30
BigOrange1 - 66.36
Jack Straw - 62.94
shadow_operative - 62.70
Prepuce of Doom - 56.84
joeycovers - 55.79

 

GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT WARNING - 35 of my points are Colgate. Hahaha. Also, obviously I'm ahead because I use my system. I'm always 1st in this and I've won the thing exactly once.

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

Posted
Posted
Team EV
Colgate 35.24
Rutgers 15.48
Villanova 15.42
Syracuse 15.40
Tennessee 15.23
Wisconsin 15.10
Southern Cal 15.08
Maryland 14.20
Connecticut 14.17
Creighton 13.11
Florida St. 12.55
Virginia Tech 12.27
Michigan St./UCLA 12.10
Texas Tech 11.84
Iowa 11.73
LSU 11.48
St. Bonaventure 11.08
Purdue 11.06
Colorado 10.99
Georgetown 10.95
BYU 10.85
North Carolina 10.69
Florida 10.48
Houston 10.43
Georgia Tech 10.34
Loyola-Chicago 10.00
Virginia Commonwealth 9.83
San Diego St. 9.62
West Virginia 9.24
Ohio St. 8.86
Virginia 8.86
Gonzaga 8.78
Kansas 8.62
Oklahoma St. 8.59
Utah St. 8.55
Clemson 8.53
Texas 8.50
Alabama 8.45
Oregon 8.35
Oklahoma 7.99
Missouri 7.55
Ohio 7.39
Illinois 7.18
Drake/Wichita St. 7.00
Oregon St. 6.85
Abilene Christian 6.33
Michigan 5.97
Baylor 5.74
Arkansas 5.63
UC-Santa Barbara 5.47
North Texas 5.01
Liberty 4.70
UNC-Greensboro 3.74
Winthrop 3.69
Eastern Washington 3.01
Grand Canyon 2.54
Iona 2.52
Morehead St. 1.84
Oral Roberts 1.54
Cleveland St. 1.36
Drexel 0.90
Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern 0.80
Hartford 0.78
Norfolk St./Appalachian St. 0.26
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
On 3/16/2021 at 8:35 PM, Huckleberry said:

System draft rankings:

Huckleberry - 108.09
HornOnTheBayou - 77.83
Wulaw Horn - 77.30
BigOrange1 - 66.36
Jack Straw - 62.94
shadow_operative - 62.70
Prepuce of Doom - 56.84
joeycovers - 55.79

 

GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT WARNING - 35 of my points are Colgate. Hahaha. Also, obviously I'm ahead because I use my system. I'm always 1st in this and I've won the thing exactly once.

 

Hey Huck, will you send me your expected points per team? Want to run my league through it. I've got my own way of doing it but similar to you my team always comes out way ahead, so want a 3rd party post-draft ranking to send out.

 

I'll run ya'll's through mine real quick too.

 

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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21065

Posted
Posted

Sorry, I've kind of shit the bed on the Eight Pack thing so far, but if we're going to do it (I mentioned it as a $5 side bet - I think that amount makes sense, but all are welcome, not just the eight of us in the snake draft), then please PM me your picks before tipoff tomorrow. 

I feel like I have fucked this up by not mentioning it sooner, but I always allow people to pick a team play in game as long as they tell me before the team tips off, and if you don't pick them tonight, you can still pick them for the future, but you won't get credit for the play in game. 

Please PM me with a clear subject line and I promise that I won't open it until after tip tomorrow. 

If we are doing it, then I'm publicly declaring that I'm picking Michigan State before tonight's game. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Sorry, I've kind of shit the bed on the Eight Pack thing so far, but if we're going to do it (I mentioned it as a $5 side bet - I think that amount makes sense, but all are welcome, not just the eight of us in the snake draft), then please PM me your picks before tipoff tomorrow. 

I feel like I have fucked this up by not mentioning it sooner, but I always allow people to pick a team play in game as long as they tell me before the team tips off, and if you don't pick them tonight, you can still pick them for the future, but you won't get credit for the play in game. 

Please PM me with a clear subject line and I promise that I won't open it until after tip tomorrow. 

If we are doing it, then I'm publicly declaring that I'm picking Michigan State before tonight's game. 

 

 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

Posted
Posted

 

Spoiler

 

By Poster

BigOrange1, Clemson - 8.53
BigOrange1, Florida St. - 12.50
BigOrange1, Illinois - 7.18
BigOrange1, Ohio St. - 8.86
BigOrange1, Oklahoma - 7.99
BigOrange1, Oklahoma St. - 8.59
BigOrange1, Texas Southern - 0.32
BigOrange1, Texas Tech - 11.84
HornOnTheBayou, BYU - 10.64
HornOnTheBayou, Florida - 10.48
HornOnTheBayou, Oral Roberts - 1.54
HornOnTheBayou, San Diego St. - 9.62
HornOnTheBayou, St. Bonaventure - 10.83
HornOnTheBayou, UNC-Greensboro - 3.73
HornOnTheBayou, Villanova - 15.42
HornOnTheBayou, Wisconsin - 15.10
Huckleberry, Colgate - 35.24
Huckleberry, Georgia Tech - 10.34
Huckleberry, Hartford - 0.78
Huckleberry, Iowa - 11.73
Huckleberry, Oregon St. - 6.85
Huckleberry, Rutgers - 15.48
Huckleberry, Syracuse - 15.40
Huckleberry, Virginia Tech - 12.27
Jack Straw, Georgetown - 10.91
Jack Straw, Iona - 2.52
Jack Straw, Kansas - 8.60
Jack Straw, Loyola-Chicago - 10.00
Jack Straw, Morehead St. - 1.84
Jack Straw, North Carolina - 10.69
Jack Straw, Texas - 8.47
Jack Straw, Virginia Commonwealth - 9.84
joeycovers, Gonzaga - 8.78
joeycovers, Grand Canyon - 2.54
joeycovers, Maryland - 14.18
joeycovers, Missouri - 7.55
joeycovers, North Texas - 5.01
joeycovers, UC-Santa Barbara - 5.47
joeycovers, Utah St. - 8.55
joeycovers, Winthrop - 3.69
Prepuce of Doom, Alabama - 8.44
Prepuce of Doom, Cleveland St. - 1.36
Prepuce of Doom, Eastern Washington - 3.04
Prepuce of Doom, Liberty - 4.70
Prepuce of Doom, LSU - 11.25
Prepuce of Doom, Ohio - 7.39
Prepuce of Doom, Oregon - 8.35
Prepuce of Doom, UCLA - 12.62
shadow_operative, Abilene Christian - 6.23
shadow_operative, Arkansas - 5.63
shadow_operative, Connecticut - 14.15
shadow_operative, Houston - 10.43
shadow_operative, Michigan - 6.10
shadow_operative, Norfolk St. - 0.26
shadow_operative, Purdue - 11.06
shadow_operative, Virginia - 8.86
Wulaw Horn, Baylor - 5.74
Wulaw Horn, Colorado - 10.95
Wulaw Horn, Creighton - 13.10
Wulaw Horn, Drake - 7.54
Wulaw Horn, Drexel - 0.90
Wulaw Horn, Southern Cal - 14.78
Wulaw Horn, Tennessee - 15.23
Wulaw Horn, West Virginia - 9.24

By Team EV

1. Colgate, 35.24 - Huckleberry
2. Rutgers, 15.48 - Huckleberry
3. Villanova, 15.42 - HornOnTheBayou
4. Syracuse, 15.40 - Huckleberry
5. Tennessee, 15.23 - Wulaw Horn
6. Wisconsin, 15.10 - HornOnTheBayou
7. Southern Cal, 14.78 - Wulaw Horn
8. Maryland, 14.18 - joeycovers
9. Connecticut, 14.15 - shadow_operative
10. Creighton, 13.10 - Wulaw Horn
11. UCLA, 12.62 - Prepuce of Doom
12. Florida St., 12.50 - BigOrange1
13. Virginia Tech, 12.27 - Huckleberry
14. Texas Tech, 11.84 - BigOrange1
15. Iowa, 11.73 - Huckleberry
16. LSU, 11.25 - Prepuce of Doom
17. Purdue, 11.06 - shadow_operative
18. Colorado, 10.95 - Wulaw Horn
19. Georgetown, 10.91 - Jack Straw
20. St. Bonaventure, 10.83 - HornOnTheBayou
21. North Carolina, 10.69 - Jack Straw
22. BYU, 10.64 - HornOnTheBayou
23. Florida, 10.48 - HornOnTheBayou
24. Houston, 10.43 - shadow_operative
25. Georgia Tech, 10.34 - Huckleberry
26. Loyola-Chicago, 10.00 - Jack Straw
27. Virginia Commonwealth, 9.84 - Jack Straw
28. San Diego St., 9.62 - HornOnTheBayou
29. West Virginia, 9.24 - Wulaw Horn
30. Ohio St., 8.86 - BigOrange1
31. Virginia, 8.86 - shadow_operative
32. Gonzaga, 8.78 - joeycovers
33. Kansas, 8.60 - Jack Straw
34. Oklahoma St., 8.59 - BigOrange1
35. Utah St., 8.55 - joeycovers
36. Clemson, 8.53 - BigOrange1
37. Texas, 8.47 - Jack Straw
38. Alabama, 8.44 - Prepuce of Doom
39. Oregon, 8.35 - Prepuce of Doom
40. Oklahoma, 7.99 - BigOrange1
41. Missouri, 7.55 - joeycovers
42. Drake, 7.54 - Wulaw Horn
43. Ohio, 7.39 - Prepuce of Doom
44. Illinois, 7.18 - BigOrange1
45. Oregon St., 6.85 - Huckleberry
46. Abilene Christian, 6.23 - shadow_operative
47. Michigan, 6.10 - shadow_operative
48. Baylor, 5.74 - Wulaw Horn
49. Arkansas, 5.63 - shadow_operative
50. UC-Santa Barbara, 5.47 - joeycovers
51. North Texas, 5.01 - joeycovers
52. Liberty, 4.70 - Prepuce of Doom
53. UNC-Greensboro, 3.73 - HornOnTheBayou
54. Winthrop, 3.69 - joeycovers
55. Eastern Washington, 3.04 - Prepuce of Doom
56. Grand Canyon, 2.54 - joeycovers
57. Iona, 2.52 - Jack Straw
58. Morehead St., 1.84 - Jack Straw
59. Oral Roberts, 1.54 - HornOnTheBayou
60. Cleveland St., 1.36 - Prepuce of Doom
61. Drexel, 0.90 - Wulaw Horn
62. Hartford, 0.78 - Huckleberry
63. Texas Southern, 0.32 - BigOrange1
64. Norfolk St., 0.26 - shadow_operative

 

 
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

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Posted

Today's Matchups:

Seed Team (Current Points, EV, Poster - Win Probability)

 

#10 Virginia Tech (0, 12.35, Huckleberry - 47.14%) vs. #7 Florida (0, 10.46, HornOnTheBayou - 52.86%)
#14 Colgate (0, 32.48, Huckleberry - 52.57%) vs. #3 Arkansas (0, 5.81, shadow_operative - 47.43%)
#16 Drexel (0, 0.87, Wulaw Horn - 3.95%) vs. #1 Illinois (0, 7.11, BigOrange1 - 96.05%)
#11 Utah St. (0, 8.68, joeycovers - 35.17%) vs. #6 Texas Tech (0, 12.04, BigOrange1 - 64.83%)
#15 Oral Roberts (0, 1.50, HornOnTheBayou - 7.24%) vs. #2 Ohio St. (0, 8.92, BigOrange1 - 92.76%)
#16 Hartford (0, 0.76, Huckleberry - 3.91%) vs. #1 Baylor (0, 5.78, Wulaw Horn - 96.09%)
#9 Georgia Tech (0, 10.39, Huckleberry - 49.08%) vs. #8 Loyola-Chicago (0, 9.94, Jack Straw - 50.92%)
#12 Oregon St. (0, 6.95, Huckleberry - 27.30%) vs. #5 Tennessee (0, 15.07, Wulaw Horn - 72.70%)
#13 Liberty (0, 4.69, Prepuce of Doom - 21.86%) vs. #4 Oklahoma St. (0, 8.61, BigOrange1 - 78.14%)
#9 Wisconsin (0, 14.89, HornOnTheBayou - 53.21%) vs. #8 North Carolina (0, 10.84, Jack Straw - 46.79%)
#15 Cleveland St. (0, 1.28, Prepuce of Doom - 6.33%) vs. #2 Houston (0, 11.01, shadow_operative - 93.67%)
#13 North Texas (0, 5.09, joeycovers - 21.58%) vs. #4 Purdue (0, 10.97, shadow_operative - 78.42%)
#10 Rutgers (0, 14.83, Huckleberry - 53.32%) vs. #7 Clemson (0, 8.44, BigOrange1 - 46.68%)
#11 Syracuse (0, 15.33, Huckleberry - 47.50%) vs. #6 San Diego St. (0, 9.59, HornOnTheBayou - 52.50%)
#14 Morehead St. (0, 1.82, Jack Straw - 9.43%) vs. #3 West Virginia (0, 9.12, Wulaw Horn - 90.57%)
#12 Winthrop (0, 3.71, joeycovers - 19.34%) vs. #5 Villanova (0, 15.37, HornOnTheBayou - 80.66%)
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32851

Posted
Posted

I pasted the wrong EVs above but put the correct updated ones in the matchups post.

What's important to note is that Colgate's EV is actually down three points already to 32.48 just from adding the First Four games. That's how weakly connected this shortened season made the teams. Just those four games had that big an impact.

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

 

fucking Rick Barnes!

should have let Derka jump on thy Grenade. 

lol i wasn't touching that team with 10 foot pole. they were already bipolar to begin with, so once Fulkerson got his face smashed in during the SEC tourney i was all the way off the bandwagon, as far as Tennessee winning tourney games goes. 

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