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Posted (edited)
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Edited by Huckleberry
Posted
 
#12 Georgetown (0, 10.51, Jack Straw - 35.34%) vs. #5 Colorado (0, 11.78, Wulaw Horn - 64.66%)
#13 UNC-Greensboro (0, 3.80, HornOnTheBayou - 18.71%) vs. #4 Florida St. (0, 12.11, BigOrange1 - 81.29%)
#14 Eastern Washington (0, 3.10, Prepuce of Doom - 15.06%) vs. #3 Kansas (0, 8.57, Jack Straw - 84.94%)
#9 St. Bonaventure (0, 11.01, HornOnTheBayou - 48.10%) vs. #8 LSU (0, 11.56, Prepuce of Doom - 51.90%)
#16 Texas Southern (0, 0.39, BigOrange1 - 2.19%) vs. #1 Michigan (0, 5.94, shadow_operative - 97.81%)
#12 UC-Santa Barbara (0, 5.63, joeycovers - 25.36%) vs. #5 Creighton (0, 12.97, Wulaw Horn - 74.64%)
#15 Iona (0, 2.46, Jack Straw - 12.33%) vs. #2 Alabama (0, 8.44, Prepuce of Doom - 87.67%)
#11 Drake (0, 7.47, Wulaw Horn - 30.88%) vs. #6 Southern Cal (0, 15.37, Wulaw Horn - 69.12%)
#15 Grand Canyon (0, 2.67, joeycovers - 10.45%) vs. #2 Iowa (0, 11.41, Huckleberry - 89.55%)
#10 Maryland (0, 13.58, joeycovers - 43.86%) vs. #7 Connecticut (0, 14.17, shadow_operative - 56.14%)
#13 Ohio (0, 7.27, Prepuce of Doom - 29.16%) vs. #4 Virginia (0, 8.77, shadow_operative - 70.84%)
#9 Missouri (0, 7.46, joeycovers - 46.90%) vs. #8 Oklahoma (0, 8.15, BigOrange1 - 53.10%)
#16 Norfolk St. (0, 0.22, shadow_operative - 1.12%) vs. #1 Gonzaga (0, 8.90, joeycovers - 98.88%)
#11 UCLA (0, 13.43, Prepuce of Doom - 44.36%) vs. #6 BYU (0, 10.51, HornOnTheBayou - 55.64%)
#14 Abilene Christian (0, 6.33, shadow_operative - 23.72%) vs. #3 Texas (0, 8.49, Jack Straw - 76.28%)
#10 Virginia Commonwealth (0, 9.01, Jack Straw - 43.67%) vs. #7 Oregon (0, 9.10, Prepuce of Doom - 56.33%)
Posted

I’ve got the dreaded first round matchup with 2 for my teams. Hate that but maybe it will work out. 
I was bored in the shower so I calculated that minimum number of points possible for this thing and I got 282 points. Or maybe it was 288- I forgot already. 
my point is going forward we should start tracking how many total points were scored. The higher the number the wackier the tournament. Might be interesting as well to see how many points were needed to win each year. 
the strategy is obviously different if you need 50 points to win vs 110 or 120. 

Posted

I figured out seed multipliers

1st round x 1

2nd round x 3

3rd round x 6

4th round x10

5th round x 15

6th round x 21

I’m sure y’all had already calculated it- but now next year I know how I’m going to draft order I guess my top 32 teams anyway. I’ve never done any calculations and only went on hunches. 

Posted

3-1 for me today. My only loss coming in the game where two of my teams played each other. 
 

next year- do we want to allow trades?  I fee like that might make this even more fun. But it’d be more complicated. 

Posted
  On 3/20/2021 at 11:58 PM, Huckleberry said:

I would vote no on trades

Expand  

I want to collect all the one and two seeds one year. The only practical way I could do that is trading my highest value team with my 16 seed to someone else for a 1 and 2. I just want to see what that would look like to have nothing but chalk on my team. 
If I went 8-0 in round one how bad would I be behind. But I get why people wouldn’t want to see trades. 

Posted (edited)
  On 3/21/2021 at 12:01 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

I want to collect all the one and two seeds one year. The only practical way I could do that is trading my highest value team with my 16 seed to someone else for a 1 and 2. I just want to see what that would look like to have nothing but chalk on my team. 
If I went 8-0 in round one how bad would I be behind. But I get why people wouldn’t want to see trades. 

Expand  

We have a guy who drafted all top 3 seeds until the late rounds when they were all gone and he had to start taking lower picks. He has Baylor, Illinois, Iowa, WVU, and Arky. It's probably a decent strategy to make sure you're in the hunt, especially if it's a chalky year. Nothing you can do to defend against someone drafting Loyola the year they went deep and getting a bazillion points. But there's not always a Loyola.

Edited by BradInATX
Posted
  On 3/21/2021 at 12:06 AM, BradInATX said:

We have a guy who drafted all top 3 seeds until the late rounds when they were all gone and he had to start taking lower picks. He has Baylor, Illinois, Iowa, WVU, and Arky. It's probably a decent strategy to make sure you're in the hunt, especially if it's a chalky year. Nothing you can do to defend against someone drafting Loyola the year they went deep and getting a bazillion points. But there's not always a Loyola.

Expand  

Yeah the only way you could get all chalk is to take the popular 6,7 or 10 seed everyone wants in round 1, then take 1’s and 2’s in rounds 2-7 and then trade your first round pick and your last round pick for a 1 and 2. That would probably be a fair value trade. 

Posted
  On 3/21/2021 at 12:06 AM, BradInATX said:

 Nothing you can do to defend against someone drafting Loyola the year they went deep and getting a bazillion points. But there's not always a Loyola.

Expand  

This is exactly why I took Ohio with my first pick. 

UVA always being ripe for an upset, the possibility of a C19 cancelation, they nearly beat Illinois in the nonconference, and the fact that their PG has a story perfect for a Cinderella story. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
  On 3/21/2021 at 12:40 AM, Prepuce of Doom said:

This is exactly why I took Ohio with my first pick. 

UVA always being ripe for an upset, the possibility of a C19 cancelation, they nearly beat Illinois in the nonconference, and the fact that their PG has a story perfect for a Cinderella story. 

Expand  

Yeah, and those seeds are nicer than the 8/9/10 seeds oftentimes because they draw better second round matchups than the higher seeds. I wanted Syracuse bad because they get a vulnerable WVU team and a beatable Houston team in the next rounds. Three wins is worth like 66 points, which is close to enough to win it some years (I won last time around with 80). Got snaked one pick before me though. 

Edited by BradInATX
Posted
  On 3/21/2021 at 12:45 AM, BradInATX said:

Yeah, and those seeds are nicer than the 8/9/10 seeds oftentimes because they draw better second round matchups than the higher seeds. I wanted Syracuse bad because they get a vulnerable WVU team and a beatable Houston team in the next rounds. Three wins is worth like 66 points, which is close to enough to win it some years (I won last time around with 80). Got snaked one pick before me though. 

Expand  

I took WVU early ish because I looked at the bracket and have them in the final 4 which is worth 30 points. Even if it’s only the elite 8 that’s still with 18 points which is a pretty solid pick. That’s the equivalent of a 6 seed going to the sweet 16. 
I wanted Florida. Had them in the sweet 16 in my bracket. 
I took creighton bc I though VA was vulnerable. I’m not too terribly upset about Ohio winning and giving me a likely 10 points with creighton I’m the next round. 
I took USC first bc I thought Kansas was going to get bounced and if that happened I wasn’t really impressed with the 2 seed on that side of the bracket. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
HornOnTheBayou, 36, 105.22
Huckleberry, 35, 93.42
Prepuce of Doom, 30, 108.54
joeycovers, 24, 61.44
BigOrange1, 23, 71.52
Wulaw Horn, 20, 73.45
shadow_operative, 20, 58.73
Jack Straw, 11, 29.11

 

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Posted
#8 Loyola-Chicago (8, 20.06, Jack Straw - 28.19%) vs. #1 Illinois (1, 7.60, BigOrange1 - 71.81%)
#9 Wisconsin (9, 29.19, HornOnTheBayou - 37.06%) vs. #1 Baylor (1, 6.14, Wulaw Horn - 62.94%)
#11 Syracuse (11, 30.85, Huckleberry - 44.70%) vs. #3 West Virginia (3, 10.05, Wulaw Horn - 55.30%)
#6 Texas Tech (6, 21.36, BigOrange1 - 45.19%) vs. #3 Arkansas (3, 13.17, shadow_operative - 54.81%)
#10 Rutgers (10, 25.49, Huckleberry - 32.52%) vs. #2 Houston (2, 11.94, shadow_operative - 67.48%)
#15 Oral Roberts (15, 21.41, HornOnTheBayou - 17.78%) vs. #7 Florida (7, 31.76, HornOnTheBayou - 82.22%)
#13 North Texas (13, 22.52, joeycovers - 25.94%) vs. #5 Villanova (5, 22.85, HornOnTheBayou - 74.06%)
#12 Oregon St. (12, 24.86, Huckleberry - 35.24%) vs. #4 Oklahoma St. (4, 13.44, BigOrange1 - 64.76%)
Posted (edited)

Through first two games of the second round:

Poster, Current Score, EV
HornOnTheBayou, 36, 84.13
Huckleberry, 35, 98.67
Prepuce of Doom, 30, 108.65
Jack Straw, 27, 59.55
joeycovers, 24, 61.05
BigOrange1, 23, 67.34
Wulaw Horn, 22, 77.54
shadow_operative, 20, 59.73
Edited by Huckleberry
Posted

After Syracuse win:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 57, 125.71
HornOnTheBayou, 36, 84.19
Prepuce of Doom, 30, 108.66
Jack Straw, 27, 59.86
joeycovers, 24, 61.07
BigOrange1, 23, 67.48
Wulaw Horn, 22, 69.84
shadow_operative, 20, 59.78
Posted

After Arkansas win:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 57, 125.68
HornOnTheBayou, 36, 83.77
Prepuce of Doom, 30, 108.66
Jack Straw, 27, 59.84
shadow_operative, 26, 68.14
joeycovers, 24, 61.07
BigOrange1, 23, 52.16
Wulaw Horn, 22, 69.70
Posted

After Houston and Oral Roberts(!!!) wins:

Poster, Current Score, EV
HornOnTheBayou, 66, 89.55
Huckleberry, 57, 104.17
Prepuce of Doom, 30, 108.59
shadow_operative, 30, 77.57
Jack Straw, 27, 58.54
joeycovers, 24, 61.06
BigOrange1, 23, 51.76
Wulaw Horn, 22, 69.54
Posted
  On 3/22/2021 at 1:49 AM, Huckleberry said:

After Houston and Oral Roberts(!!!) wins:

Poster, Current Score, EV
HornOnTheBayou, 66, 89.55
Huckleberry, 57, 104.17
Prepuce of Doom, 30, 108.59
shadow_operative, 30, 77.57
Jack Straw, 27, 58.54
joeycovers, 24, 61.06
BigOrange1, 23, 51.76
Wulaw Horn, 22, 69.54
Expand  

I think your current scores are goofed up.

I should have 41 points as of yesterday, not 30. And after Syracuse winning, shouldn't you have 57?

Posted (edited)
  On 3/22/2021 at 2:10 AM, Prepuce of Doom said:

I think your current scores are goofed up.

I should have 41 points as of yesterday, not 30. And after Syracuse winning, shouldn't you have 57?

Expand  

It says I have 57.

I've got you with 

UCLA 39.41 0
Ohio 22.98 13
LSU 21.40 8
Oregon 14.27 7
Alabama 10.52 2
Eastern Washington 0.00 0
Michigan St. 0.00 0
Liberty 0.00 0
Cleveland St. 0.00 0

 

So there's the issue, working on it

Edited by Huckleberry
Posted

Had a zero on the UCLA line instead of a formula, I'm assuming from something in a previous tournament.

Poster, Current Score, EV
HornOnTheBayou, 66, 89.55
Huckleberry, 57, 104.17
Prepuce of Doom, 41, 108.59
shadow_operative, 30, 77.57
Jack Straw, 27, 58.54
joeycovers, 24, 61.06
BigOrange1, 23, 51.76
Wulaw Horn, 22, 69.54
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Through today's games:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 132.73
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 95.49
Prepuce of Doom, 41, 108.60
shadow_operative, 30, 77.73
Jack Straw, 27, 62.12
joeycovers, 24, 51.95
BigOrange1, 23, 40.13
Wulaw Horn, 22, 69.05

 

Will post another update tomorrow morning based on updated ratings.

Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 132.87
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.19
Prepuce of Doom, 41, 113.84
shadow_operative, 30, 76.22
Jack Straw, 27, 61.98
joeycovers, 24, 52.05
BigOrange1, 23, 38.57
Wulaw Horn, 22, 72.17

 

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#7 Oregon (7, 15.37, Prepuce of Doom - 29.25%) vs. #2 Iowa (2, 11.23, Huckleberry - 70.75%)
#8 Oklahoma (8, 14.53, BigOrange1 - 17.34%) vs. #1 Gonzaga (1, 9.41, joeycovers - 82.66%)
#14 Abilene Christian (14, 27.41, shadow_operative - 31.10%) vs. #11 UCLA (11, 42.32, Prepuce of Doom - 68.90%)
#13 Ohio (13, 23.69, Prepuce of Doom - 30.15%) vs. #5 Creighton (5, 18.70, Wulaw Horn - 69.85%)
#8 LSU (8, 22.32, Prepuce of Doom - 36.68%) vs. #1 Michigan (1, 5.36, shadow_operative - 63.32%)
#5 Colorado (5, 19.18, Wulaw Horn - 53.65%) vs. #4 Florida St. (4, 13.04, BigOrange1 - 46.35%)
#10 Maryland (10, 29.64, joeycovers - 38.37%) vs. #2 Alabama (2, 10.14, Prepuce of Doom - 61.63%)
#6 Southern Cal (6, 22.50, Wulaw Horn - 56.27%) vs. #3 Kansas (3, 8.52, Jack Straw - 43.73%)
Posted (edited)

An all chalk Monday would eliminate joeycovers. That implies that he needs a Maryland upset over Alabama to stay alive. Just noticed this while preparing the Sweet 16 forecast.

What it would look like if all higher seeds win today so we can compare after actual results:

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 58.93% (15,744)
HornOnTheBayou - 17.06% (10,421)
Jack Straw - 11.40% (3,055)
Prepuce of Doom - 5.96% (2,665)
shadow_operative - 4.33% (401)
Wulaw Horn - 0.97% (277)
Tie - 0.91% (109)
BigOrange1 - 0.44% (96)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Edited by Huckleberry
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

After Oregon win:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.69
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.21
Prepuce of Doom, 55, 134.58
shadow_operative, 30, 76.34
Jack Straw, 27, 63.02
joeycovers, 24, 52.71
BigOrange1, 23, 38.96
Wulaw Horn, 22, 75.79

Sweet 16 forecast assuming higher seeds win remaining games today (we see how long that lasted):

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 42.61% (13,210)
Prepuce of Doom - 21.20% (6,511)
HornOnTheBayou - 16.95% (9,622)
Jack Straw - 12.76% (2,712)
shadow_operative - 4.04% (285)
Wulaw Horn - 1.12% (243)
Tie - 0.84% (107)
BigOrange1 - 0.47% (78)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

After Gonzaga win. Obviously no change to the Sweet 16 "if all higher seeds win" forecast from above.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.58
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.15
Prepuce of Doom, 55, 132.36
shadow_operative, 30, 76.11
Jack Straw, 27, 62.68
joeycovers, 26, 54.39
BigOrange1, 23, 32.01
Wulaw Horn, 22, 73.53
Posted
  On 3/22/2021 at 10:54 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m coming for you punk ass bitches tonight. When my 2 5 seeds and 6 seed win I’m putting up 32 points. That will bring me all the way up to the middle of the pack!  

Expand  

My level of concern will be dictated by the next 17 minutes of the Ohio game. 

Currently getting boat raced by Creighton... 

Posted

Oregon state was collectively a big miss by the group going in the 7th round- but other than that I’d have to say I’m pretty proud of the job the group did in picking teams. 
it will kind of suck if someone getting Oral Roberts as the obvious last 15 seed wins the tournament. 
suggested tweak for next year- what about a 6 round draft?  That would get  rid of some of the dumbass luck in the contest. 
Of course maybe I should just say how can we give Huck a greater handicap?  

Posted

Through UCLA win:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.59
Prepuce of Doom, 77, 146.03
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.15
shadow_operative, 30, 62.70
Jack Straw, 27, 62.68
joeycovers, 26, 53.24
BigOrange1, 23, 31.96
Wulaw Horn, 22, 73.46
Posted

Through Creighton win:

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.61
Prepuce of Doom, 77, 136.02
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.17
Wulaw Horn, 32, 79.14
shadow_operative, 30, 62.74
Jack Straw, 27, 62.71
joeycovers, 26, 52.85
BigOrange1, 23, 31.98
Posted

After Michigan win

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.58
Prepuce of Doom, 77, 120.75
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.15
Wulaw Horn, 32, 77.94
shadow_operative, 32, 65.21
Jack Straw, 27, 62.66
joeycovers, 26, 52.38
BigOrange1, 23, 31.36
Posted

Through Florida St. win

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.59
Prepuce of Doom, 77, 121.02
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.15
shadow_operative, 32, 65.34
Wulaw Horn, 32, 64.89
BigOrange1, 31, 41.04
Jack Straw, 27, 62.67
joeycovers, 26, 52.49
Posted

If usc wins I had the best evening group of 4. 
so far it’s chalet tonight with the 1 and 4 moving on, and I’d be shocked if the 2 doesn’t move on. 
what’d we have today so far- 1 upset and that was Oregon taking down a shitty Iowa team?  Similarly I think if USC beats Kansas that’s no real upset either. 

in a tournament with the highest collection of seeds ever in the sweet 16 this is a pretty standard and boring day. 

Posted

Also- fucking Gonzaga is going to ruin me. Take out my 5 seed in the sweet 16 and my 6 seed in the elite 8 and then my 1 seed in the finals. I think, next time, I should look at a bracket before I make my picks. 

Posted

Through Alabama win (is this close, this seems close):

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 123.58
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 123.31
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.15
shadow_operative, 32, 65.17
Wulaw Horn, 32, 64.78
BigOrange1, 31, 40.74
Jack Straw, 27, 62.65
joeycovers, 26, 34.25
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 81, 124.93
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 124.44
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.24
Wulaw Horn, 44, 79.70
shadow_operative, 32, 64.92
BigOrange1, 31, 41.61
Jack Straw, 27, 55.59
joeycovers, 26, 33.96

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Prepuce of Doom - 35.18% (8,922)
Huckleberry - 33.36% (11,669)
HornOnTheBayou - 12.14% (8,528)
Wulaw Horn - 10.01% (1,776)
Jack Straw - 6.37% (1,484)
Tie - 1.59% (297)
shadow_operative - 1.14% (65)
BigOrange1 - 0.22% (27)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
  • Hook 'Em 1

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