Jump to content

Seeded tournament thread of Win

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
in Basketball

 Share

Recommended Posts

HornOnTheBayou

HornOnTheBayou 9056

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Oregon state was collectively a big miss by the group going in the 7th round- but other than that I’d have to say I’m pretty proud of the job the group did in picking teams. 
it will kind of suck if someone getting Oral Roberts as the obvious last 15 seed wins the tournament. 
suggested tweak for next year- what about a 6 round draft?  That would get  rid of some of the dumbass luck in the contest. 
Of course maybe I should just say how can we give Huck a greater handicap?  

Hey now, it wasn't dumbass luck. My nine-year old took a long time to think when I said to him, "Should I take Oral Roberts or Drexel?"

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

Posted
  • Author
Posted
26 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Hey now, it wasn't dumbass luck. My nine-year old took a long time to think when I said to him, "Should I take Oral Roberts or Drexel?"

As someone that got stuck with Drexel and would have loved Oral Bob I can say I'm not too happy with your nine year old...

16 seeds are the worst (other than Huck that one year).  15 seeds seem like you have a 5 or so percent chance of cashing an upset- assuming a 15 is going to win every 5 years or so- which seems like a pretty reasonable assumption going back 20 or 25 years maybe?

Whereas 16's are 1/440 or something stupid like that.  or, 1 for the last 40 if you want to go back 10 years.  6-80 in the last 21 years (this century).  5-50 in the last decade.  so- that's a 2.5% chance vs 1/2 a percent chance.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted

A little late, but here are today's matchups:

#12 Oregon St. (36, 58.30, Huckleberry - 38.60%) vs. #8 Loyola-Chicago (24, 52.59, Jack Straw - 61.40%)
#5 Villanova (15, 28.05, HornOnTheBayou - 36.86%) vs. #1 Baylor (3, 8.63, Wulaw Horn - 63.14%)
#15 Oral Roberts (45, 52.18, HornOnTheBayou - 13.70%) vs. #3 Arkansas (9, 25.53, shadow_operative - 86.30%)
#11 Syracuse (33, 54.63, Huckleberry - 31.54%) vs. #2 Houston (6, 17.93, shadow_operative - 68.46%)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 161.98
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 124.45
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 96.37
Wulaw Horn, 44, 79.75
shadow_operative, 32, 65.76
BigOrange1, 31, 41.61
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00
joeycovers, 26, 33.96

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 64.57% (9,100)
Prepuce of Doom - 18.78% (3,277)
HornOnTheBayou - 8.53% (3,451)
Wulaw Horn - 6.49% (470)
Tie - 1.62% (83)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 160.93
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 124.33
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 82.95
Wulaw Horn, 47, 82.95
shadow_operative, 32, 64.50
BigOrange1, 31, 41.58
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00
joeycovers, 26, 33.91

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 66.88% (4,808)
Prepuce of Doom - 19.63% (1,719)
Wulaw Horn - 7.69% (318)
HornOnTheBayou - 4.12% (1,301)
Tie - 1.67% (44)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 160.93
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 124.34
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 47, 82.58
shadow_operative, 41, 67.00
BigOrange1, 31, 41.58
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00
joeycovers, 26, 33.92

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 70.48% (2,830)
Prepuce of Doom - 19.80% (1,016)
Wulaw Horn - 7.79% (210)
Tie - 1.93% (40)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Edited by Huckleberry
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Across all of my various interests, I'm about split in terms of who I'm rooting for in this game - benefits and drawbacks to both outcomes. 

But I despise Calvin Simpson far more strongly than I am merely continually annoyed by Jim Boeheim. 

Yeah- I have virtually no chance if Syracuse wins this game vs very very little chance if UH wins. Gimme the ‘Cuse bc I dislike Sampson more than Boeheim, even if just barely. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

Posted
  • Author
Posted

If Huck loses I need somewhere between 4 and 6 more combined wins from my 3 teams left. Considering 2 of my teams are in Gonzaga’s bracket, and I think it’s completely possible that Baylor is the only team that can beat Gonzaga, I’m in trouble. 
@Huckleberry does an Oregon state win in the elite 8 clinch it for you?  Now that they are the only riff raff truly left I think?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 134.49
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 124.66
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 47, 82.16
shadow_operative, 47, 71.83
BigOrange1, 31, 41.37
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00
joeycovers, 26, 33.98

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 59.18% (1,086)
Prepuce of Doom - 26.86% (720)
Wulaw Horn - 11.32% (210)
Tie - 2.64% (32)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If Huck loses I need somewhere between 4 and 6 more combined wins from my 3 teams left. Considering 2 of my teams are in Gonzaga’s bracket, and I think it’s completely possible that Baylor is the only team that can beat Gonzaga, I’m in trouble. 
@Huckleberry does an Oregon state win in the elite 8 clinch it for you?  Now that they are the only riff raff truly left I think?  

There aren't really any one team scenarios that clinch anything at this point. If Oregon State wins tomorrow, but UCLA also goes to the Final Four then Prepuce of Doom can still win depending on FF results. After today we'll probably have some one team clinching scenarios.

All chalk from here until the final four wins it for me. All chalk today eliminates Prepuce of Doom and puts me at 82% and you at 18%.

Edited by Huckleberry
Oregon State, not Syracuse
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21260

Posted
Posted

If you're not able to (or easily able to) read the entrails enough to determine this, I completely understand and wouldn't expect you to spend more than 3-4 minutes tops on this, but what approximate percentage of my total pathways can involve an Alabama win (and UCLA loss) today?

I know that I'm basically dependent on Oregon winning today regardless (or else UCLA must ultimately go one round further than Oregon State), but I think that the Doomlet's bracket might have an outside chance of winning a pool or two if Alabama beats Gonzaga in the FF as long as Arkansas beats Baylor tomorrow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

If you're not able to (or easily able to) read the entrails enough to determine this, I completely understand and wouldn't expect you to spend more than 3-4 minutes tops on this, but what approximate percentage of my total pathways can involve an Alabama win (and UCLA loss) today?

I know that I'm basically dependent on Oregon winning today regardless (or else UCLA must ultimately go one round further than Oregon State), but I think that the Doomlet's bracket might have an outside chance of winning a pool or two if Alabama beats Gonzaga in the FF as long as Arkansas beats Baylor tomorrow. 

No worries, I have a spreadsheet of all 32,768 possibilities set up once we reach the Sweet 16. If UCLA loses you would have 200 of the remaining 1,024 paths at a 12.83% probability.

If UCLA wins you have 520 of the 1,024 at 49.60% probability.

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Now worries, I have a spreadsheet of all 32,768 possibilities set up once we reach the Sweet 16. If UCLA loses you would have 200 of the remaining 1,024 paths at a 12.83% probability/

And this is why Huck is automatically in this deal every year that he wants to be. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21260

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Now worries, I have a spreadsheet of all 32,768 possibilities set up once we reach the Sweet 16. If UCLA loses you would have 200 of the remaining 1,024 paths at a 12.83% probability.

If UCLA wins you have 520 of the 1,024 at 49.60% probability.

Sufficiently hedged to provide an exciting possibility either way - thanks! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 134.37
Prepuce of Doom, 81, 122.53
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 47, 72.85
shadow_operative, 47, 71.48
BigOrange1, 31, 41.11
joeycovers, 29, 36.47
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 65.36% (588)
Prepuce of Doom - 25.52% (368)
Wulaw Horn - 6.70% (52)
Tie - 2.42% (16)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 134.37
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 149.44
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 47, 73.12
shadow_operative, 47, 71.84
BigOrange1, 31, 41.88
joeycovers, 29, 36.71
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 
Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Prepuce of Doom - 50.17% (268)
Huckleberry - 44.26% (224)
Wulaw Horn - 5.57% (20)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Edited by Huckleberry
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21260

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 134.37
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 149.44
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 47, 73.12
shadow_operative, 47, 71.84
BigOrange1, 31, 41.88
joeycovers, 29, 36.71
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 
Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Prepuce of Doom - 50.17% (268)
Huckleberry - 44.26% (224)
Wulaw Horn - 5.57% (20)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

Might ultimately be a distinction without a difference, or just a typo, but shouldn't Big Orange have an EV of 31.00? By my count, he's out of bullets.. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted

Ah crap, was out at dinner and forgot I hadn't updated the Michigan/Florida St. game for that calculation (Derka also has 50 now, not 47).

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 134.34
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 146.82
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
shadow_operative, 50, 75.02
Wulaw Horn, 47, 72.86
BigOrange1, 31, 31.00
joeycovers, 29, 36.52
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 134.36
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 134.88
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 65, 86.23
shadow_operative, 50, 75.06
BigOrange1, 31, 31.00
joeycovers, 29, 35.98
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 65.55% (76)
Prepuce of Doom - 25.45% (42)
Wulaw Horn - 9.00% (10)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)


 

Edited by Huckleberry
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted

If UCLA beats Michigan, Prepuce of Doom is 75% to win. If Michigan beats UCLA, Prepuce of Doom is eliminated.

If Southern Cal beats Gonzaga, Wulaw Horn is 28% to win. If Gonzaga beats Southern Cal, Wulaw Horn is eliminated.

So obviously if Michigan and Gonzaga both win then I clinch. I am a big chalk fan other than Houston, of course.

If Oregon St. beats Houston, I am 93% to win. If Houston beats Oregon St., I am 56% to win.

  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

Posted
  • Author
Posted
19 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

If UCLA beats Michigan, Prepuce of Doom is 75% to win. If Michigan beats UCLA, Prepuce of Doom is eliminated.

If Southern Cal beats Gonzaga, Wulaw Horn is 28% to win. If Gonzaga beats Southern Cal, Wulaw Horn is eliminated.

So obviously if Michigan and Gonzaga both win then I clinch. I am a big chalk fan other than Houston, of course.

If Oregon St. beats Houston, I am 93% to win. If Houston beats Oregon St., I am 56% to win.

Side deal time- you will get a slight advantage from me by the numbers... 

If OREGON state loses tonight I will agree that if you win I don’t pay you, and if I win you don’t pay me. I’m pretty sure that’s a little better for You numerically, but I’m more of a long shot so I will get the better of that deal more often. 
Deal? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)

No deal! Let it ride! (also, that's a terrible deal for me - you're saying that 56% of the time you won't pay me, 12% of the time I won't pay you, and the other 32% of the time nothing happens)

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 117.00
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 134.76
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 65, 85.80
shadow_operative, 58, 78.58
BigOrange1, 31, 31.00
joeycovers, 29, 35.93
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 56.33% (24)
Prepuce of Doom - 31.65% (30)
Wulaw Horn - 12.02% (10)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Edited by Huckleberry
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No deal! Let it ride! (also, that's a terrible deal for me - you're saying that 56% of the time you won't pay me, 12% of the time I won't pay you, and the other 32% of the time nothing happens)

Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 117.00
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 134.76
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 65, 85.80
shadow_operative, 58, 78.58
BigOrange1, 31, 31.00
joeycovers, 29, 35.93
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 56.33% (24)
Prepuce of Doom - 31.65% (30)
Wulaw Horn - 12.02% (10)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)

Oh I didn’t say that how I meant. I meant I will concede the prize to you- just so long as I don’t have to pay. Sorry- Somehow my brain stopped talking to my fingers. I’m offering a chopped pot as between me and you with my take being my entry fee. If either of us wins. Obviously if doom wins we’d both have to pay him. 
how about now that I got it out correctly? 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21260

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Oh I didn’t say that how I meant. I meant I will concede the prize to you- just so long as I don’t have to pay. Sorry- Somehow my brain stopped talking to my fingers. I’m offering a chopped pot as between me and you with my take being my entry fee. If either of us wins. Obviously if doom wins we’d both have to pay him. 
how about now that I got it out correctly? 

If I don't win, it's okay if just one of you guys pays me. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted
Poster, Current Score, EV
Huckleberry, 117, 117.00
Prepuce of Doom, 114, 135.18
HornOnTheBayou, 76, 76.00
Wulaw Horn, 69, 88.95
shadow_operative, 58, 70.01
BigOrange1, 31, 31.00
joeycovers, 29, 35.85
Jack Straw, 27, 27.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Huckleberry - 55.93% (12)
Prepuce of Doom - 30.79% (14)
Wulaw Horn - 13.28% (6)
HornOnTheBayou - 0.00% (0)
shadow_operative - 0.00% (0)
joeycovers - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Jack Straw - 0.00% (0)
BigOrange1 - 0.00% (0)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34407

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm done scoring points. Tonight's four possible outcomes in order from most probable to least probable:

Gonzaga beats Southern Cal and Michigan beats UCLA - I clinch the win
Gonzaga beats Southern Cal and UCLA beats Michigan - Prepuce of Doom clinches the win
Southern Cal beats Gonzaga and Michigan beats UCLA - I am 53% to win and Wulaw is 47% to win depending on if the Trojans beat the Wolverines in the national semifinal.
Southern Cal beats Gonzaga and UCLA beats Michigan - Prepuce of Doom is 71% to win and Wulaw is 29% to win depending on Final Four results.

So if Gonzaga beats Southern Cal then our entire competition comes down to the last game of the night.

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...