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Surly 2021 Bracket Challenge

BigOrange1

By BigOrange1
in Basketball

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ztejas

ztejas 43526

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Pro tip, for those waiting until the last minute to pick:  According to a formula to narrow down what teams can actual win the championship, that's been correct 20 out of the last 21 tournaments, only 3 teams this year meet all the criteria:  Gonzaga, Baylor, and Kansas. 

Norm Hitzges explained it today, I think this is the formula:

1.  Is a top 3 seed  

2.  Averaged 73+ points per game

3.  Averaged win margin for the season of at least 7 points

4.  Has a coach that has made it to the Elite 8 before

The only champion in the last 21 tourneys that didn't meet all the criteria was 2014 UConn.

 

For anyone wondering, Texas is close and basically there (missing by .6 ppg):

PS/G: 75.2 (80th of 347)

PA/G: 68.8 (131st of 347)

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HornOnTheBayou

HornOnTheBayou 8945

Posted
Posted

We're 36 hours away from tip-off from the opening game. I just want to encourage those of you on the fence to go ahead and jump in and donate your money. I've been training for this moment for the last two years. Since last year's tournament got canceled, I've been in my basement working on my perfect bracket while listening to Tina Turner. Good luck to everyone fighting for 2nd place.

 

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Hornlover

Hornlover 8830

Posted
Posted

What's the scoring? Just ESPN standard? 

Quote

Round 1 (Round of 64): 10 points per correct pick

• Round 2 (Round of 32): 20 points per correct pick

• Round 3 (Round of 16): 40 points per correct pick

• Round 4 (Round of 8): 80 points per correct pick

• Round 5 (Round of 4): 160 points per correct pick

• Round 6 (Championship game): 320 points

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23564

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Pro tip, for those waiting until the last minute to pick:  According to a formula to narrow down what teams can actual win the championship, that's been correct 20 out of the last 21 tournaments, only 3 teams this year meet all the criteria:  Gonzaga, Baylor, and Kansas. 

Norm Hitzges explained it today, I think this is the formula:

1.  Is a top 3 seed  

2.  Averaged 73+ points per game

3.  Averaged win margin for the season of at least 7 points

4.  Has a coach that has made it to the Elite 8 before

The only champion in the last 21 tourneys that didn't meet all the criteria was 2014 UConn.

 

Without checking, I would guess a few championship teams since 2000 didn't average 73+. In particular, that virginia team in 2019 played a ton of low scoring games.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ztejas said:

For anyone wondering, Texas is close and basically there (missing by .6 ppg):

PS/G: 75.2 (80th of 347)

PA/G: 68.8 (131st of 347)

Oh shit, I mistakenly have entered the horseshoe tourney!

 


 

Jokes aside, UT would seem like a great darkhorse pick.  If you consider anyone not a top 2 seed to be a darkhorse.  And my dumbass has you all in the FF - doomed!

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Eugene11

Eugene11 379

Posted
Posted

Donation sent. I figured since I’ve won a quarter in Super Bowl I could return the favor a little. 
as I was filling it out I realized I haven’t done this in at least 7 years. Maybe more. And I’d be surprised if i watched even 1 quarter err half of a half of basketball this year. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43526

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

You guys are so screwed if Tennessee wins it all.

Well, yeah, we'll have to put up with your incessant doomposting about Barnes winning a title at another school while we still have Shaka. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23564

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Posted

Hate my bracket already. 

10 hours ago, Underdog said:

In and Paypal'd.  Going chalk for FF except for FSU, like to see Hamilton finally make one.  May also change my Illinois pick to Houston

thats my FF as well (chalk + FSU) . You're fucked.

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14222

Posted
Posted

This year is so hard to pick because most of the top teams played nobody outside of their conference, so you have to make a decision on which conferences were legit and which were overrated based on just a few OOC games. Texas is one of the only exceptions.

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21100

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

This year is so hard to pick because most of the top teams played nobody outside of their conference, so you have to make a decision on which conferences were legit and which were overrated based on just a few OOC games. Texas is one of the only exceptions.

And even conference play isn't perfectly helpful - some teams are a lot different now than they were in January. That's always the case, of course, but it seems much more important to consider this year (or, perhaps more accurately, it's a better predictor relative to other available measures this year). 

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14222

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

And even conference play isn't perfectly helpful - some teams are a lot different now than they were in January. That's always the case, of course, but it seems much more important to consider this year (or, perhaps more accurately, it's a better predictor relative to other available measures this year). 

Yeah. Look at Gonzaga and Iowa. The Zags beat Iowa way early in the season, but Iowa has had to play a lot more games against quality opponents since, while Gonzaga got to play scrimmages against the likes of Pepperdine and San Francisco all January and February long. I would argue that Iowa's improvement over those two months is much more than Gonzaga's.

Unless Iowa is coached by Shaka.

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6466

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ok, best i can tell, there are 57 paid entrants at this time.  im not at work today and this shit is way harder to track on a laptop than it is in my office with a second monitor so i may have to wait until monday to confirm the exact # of paid entrants in this thing.  we're at at least a $1,425 prize pool (minus a couple of dollars due to paypal ignorance) though.  not bad.  

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Js1

Js1 85493

Posted
Posted

I'm chalk + Alabama.  Watching FSU blow the regular season ACC title and not win the ACC tournament in a weak year smelled funny to me.  I thought Texas was/is careless with the ball, but FSU turned it over 25 times against GT.  Yuck.  If a team is going to shoot 56%, 53% from three and hit 11-14 FT and still lose, there's a problem. 

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Underdog

Underdog 28765

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm chalk + Alabama.  Watching FSU blow the regular season ACC title and not win the ACC tournament in a weak year smelled funny to me.  I thought Texas was/is careless with the ball, but FSU turned it over 25 times against GT.  Yuck.  If a team is going to shoot 56%, 53% from three and hit 11-14 FT and still lose, there's a problem. 

I'm not real confident in them, just picking them for Hamilton's sake.  Same if I change it to Houston over Illinois for Sampson. 

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wild_turkey

wild_turkey 3180

Posted
Posted

For some reason the ESPN site created a second bracket for me called “wild_turkey 2” where all of my picks were made. Problem is that I’m entered in the surly pool under “wild_turkey” which has no picks at all.

No idea how or why this happened, because I used the link in the OP and password to create my picks and this is the only pool I’m a part of. Any way I can get that switched to still participate? I paid and everything.

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Prepuce of Doom

Prepuce of Doom 21100

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

For some reason the ESPN site created a second bracket for me called “wild_turkey 2” where all of my picks were made. Problem is that I’m entered in the surly pool under “wild_turkey” which has no picks at all.

No idea how or why this happened, because I used the link in the OP and password to create my picks and this is the only pool I’m a part of. Any way I can get that switched to still participate? I paid and everything.

I would try to get ESPN to investigate, but I'm afraid that they'll probably work on it in shifts... 

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