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Posted
4 hours ago, Machinator said:

The average fan still indexes program health disproportionately on tournament success.

That's fine - but you don't fire a guy averaging 2 tourney wins a season at Texas. 

Posted
On 2/15/2025 at 5:15 PM, ztejas said:

That's fine - but you don't fire a guy averaging 2 tourney wins a season at Texas. 

This is extremely short sighted and any AD that thinks like this should be fired. Especially the one you think SMU had a chance with.

Use your eyes, not results from a single elimination tourney. The Moody is dead. Program health in jeopardy. Coaching acumen at an all-time low. Nothing on the roster to build on. No belief he can coach a new one to anything above a middle of the pack finish. Avg 2 tourney wins isn’t competing for championships. 
 

Texas gave him a chance. Texas doesn’t need to settle because they’ve had mediocre results in the past. 

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Posted

I'm trying to think of coaches who routinely outperform their seeds in the tournament.  Tom Izzo is the first to come to mind.  Other than him, who?  That seems to be what some are expecting out of Rodney Terry.  "Sure, the regular season sucked, but he made the Sweet 16 as a 9 seed!  Woo!"

Posted
19 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

This is extremely short sighted and any AD that thinks like this should be fired. Especially the one you think SMU had a chance with.

Use your eyes, not results from a single elimination tourney. The Moody is dead. Program health in jeopardy. Coaching acumen at an all-time low. Nothing on the roster to build on. No belief he can coach a new one to anything above a middle of the pack finish. Avg 2 tourney wins isn’t competing for championships. 
 

Texas gave him a chance. Texas doesn’t need to settle because they’ve had mediocre results in the past. 

Yeah...the regular season with RT is a complete slog of bad basketball. Barely scraping into the tourney and maybe winning a game doesn't make up for the incredibly poor level of play you have to put up with for like 70% of the season.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

This is extremely short sighted and any AD that thinks like this should be fired. Especially the one you think SMU had a chance with.

Use your eyes, not results from a single elimination tourney. The Moody is dead. Program health in jeopardy. Coaching acumen at an all-time low. Nothing on the roster to build on. No belief he can coach a new one to anything above a middle of the pack finish. Avg 2 tourney wins isn’t competing for championships. 
 

Texas gave him a chance. Texas doesn’t need to settle because they’ve had mediocre results in the past. 

Your words are harsh but there are non truer. 
Flawless victory!

  • Haha 1
Posted
9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm trying to think of coaches who routinely outperform their seeds in the tournament.  Tom Izzo is the first to come to mind.  Other than him, who?  That seems to be what some are expecting out of Rodney Terry.  "Sure, the regular season sucked, but he made the Sweet 16 as a 9 seed!  Woo!"

Here's a metric trying to capture that. It's "performance above seed expectations." The number of wins a coach has above or below their seed.

It looks accurate from a glance. Izzo at the top. Barnes and Shaka both close to almost dead last

https://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?type=coach&sort=18&yrlow=2000&yrhigh=2023

Posted

Damn, Izzo is in a class of his own.  15.4, then Cal at 10, and the next active coach is Pitino at 5.3

RT - 92
Smart - 406
Barnes - 408
 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Damn, Izzo is in a class of his own.  15.4, then Cal at 10, and the next active coach is Pitino at 5.3

RT - 92
Smart - 406
Barnes - 408
 

Beard at 12.  Fuck me.

Tommy Lloyd is one spot above Shaka.  Oof.

 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Beard at 12.  Fuck me.

Tommy Lloyd is one spot above Shaka.  Oof.

 

Yeah, I was gonna mention Lloyd being so low.  Hate it. 

Granted, his tournament resume is only 3 seasons so far - Sweet 16 as a 1 seed, R64 as a 2 seed, Sweet 16 as a 2 seed. 

It looks a lot worse for Barnes and Shaka, considering how many seasons they've coached (58 NCAAT games for Barnes in 37 full seasons and 21 NCAAT games in 15 seasons for Smart, compared to 7 games in 3 full seasons for Lloyd) 

Edited by Js1
Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Damn, Izzo is in a class of his own.  15.4, then Cal at 10, and the next active coach is Pitino at 5.3

RT - 92
Smart - 406
Barnes - 408
 

LOL Haith is down there with Smart and Barnes too!

Posted (edited)

We make Billy Donovan say no!

The more I'm thinking of it I think my number 1 attainable candidate might be Dusty May. Buyout info:

image.png.f51ae94efba20766504a741b3ff080cf.png

 

Sean Miller was the hot name before RT was hired but his career seems to be on the downward slope. 

 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
Posted
3 minutes ago, MrX said:

Not sure why overperforming your seed matters that much when a 1 seed wins the tournament 64% of the time. 

When people are arguing that (for instance) a Sweet 16 run should earn RT another year it becomes kinda germane.  

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

When people are arguing that (for instance) a Sweet 16 run should earn RT another year it becomes kinda germane.  

Also CB is 12th on the list, so being a tournament coach now matters a lot, you see. 

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Posted

The only thing about Lloyd is is he’s a west coast guy and is at a basketball school. 

Is Texas better than that? 

Money isn’t the issue there when it comes to basketball and Lloyd.

Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

That whole list is a gold mine - look where Porter Moser is, based on one magical run at Loyola lol

There's definitely a ton of outliers when the N is low for games played. 

Beard's ranking is solely based on 2 years at Tech, RTs is 1 year here, Ollie is up there due to one championship run, Lloyd (and Haith) are ranked low based on 2 or 3 Ls, etc.

But the coaches with more than 20 games or so all fall right where we'd expect them too. Izzo at the top, Painter and Barnes at the bottom.

Posted
1 hour ago, Revolution512 said:

Nothing on the roster to build on. 


I believe this is why - like him or not - it’s pointless to keep him. What does next year’s roster look like? How do the incoming recruits stack up? Is there even a whiff of any potential splash “gets” via NIL? RT won’t win with a roster that’s worse than the current one and he doesn’t seem capable of improving it himself, so what’s the point in keeping him?
Posted
13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The only thing about Lloyd is is he’s a west coast guy and is at a basketball school. 

Is Texas better than that? 

Money isn’t the issue there when it comes to basketball and Lloyd.

I feel like I could say that about 75% of CDC’s hires so far.  He just gets it done 

Posted

I'd rather take my chance on a guy who consistently lands great seeds than one who seemingly does more with less.  Izzo is the near-unicorn, but I suspect a lot of that has to do with his roster construction (lunchpail types) and early schedule strength.  Hell, we beat MSU a few times early in the season.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

That whole list is a gold mine - look where Porter Moser is, based on one magical run at Loyola lol

You cant fall down that list if you don't make the tourney. Cagey fucker is gonna retire top 15 all time, lulz. 

Tapping Head GIFs | Tenor

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Posted

So we are looking for something like this?

Makes the tournament every year
Average seeding is 4 or better
On average, performs to seeding or better
Generates excitement in the program
Doesn't beat women or abuse animals
Isn't currently battling addiction, unless the addiction is to winning basketball games
Actually exists

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Damn, Izzo is in a class of his own.  15.4, then Cal at 10, and the next active coach is Pitino at 5.3

RT - 92
Smart - 406
Barnes - 408
 

it’s amazing, the number of these computations that get published which say that shaka smart is a better tourney coach than rick barnes because of one final four run as an 11 seed vs barnes who has lost a shit ton of 4 vs 5 or 8 vs 9 type of games. shaka has 3 tourney wins in the last 12 years, barnes got three wins last year. our losses vs temple and usc were the only “bad” tourney upsets i recall under barnes here, and everyone he loses to at tennessee ends up in the E8 or FF. that’s the problem with any metric that measures tourney performance by seed expectation. it’s a very binary way to look at something that’s a lot more nuanced.

one more example: in 2004 Texas (3 seed) beat UNC (6 seed) even though  Texas was no.19 in kenpom and UNC was no.9, and the betting favorite. according to these metrics Texas/Barnes merely handled business when in reality that was one of my favorite Texas tourney upsets of my lifetime. 

Edited by Derka
Posted (edited)

Yeah that metric appears to be pretty useless. It basically punishes you for getting high seeds every year. 

Honestly I'd rather just see a metric for average tourney wins per appearance or per year. Would be much more telling. (and would still highly reward the guys that do it with lower seeds)

Edited by ztejas
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Posted
1 hour ago, idigTexas said:

So we are looking for something like this?

Makes the tournament every year
Average seeding is 4 or better
On average, performs to seeding or better
Generates excitement in the program
Doesn't beat women or abuse animals
Isn't currently battling addiction, unless the addiction is to winning basketball games
Actually exists

Near perfect criteria. I would just add "mocks FCB and Kurt Bohls at PCs."

Posted
9 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

Next.

on second thought, it's possible Few could be a little more surly in his older age and god knows that FCB and Kurt would test the shit out of his west coast calm demeanor. 

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