2021 Seattle Mariners

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

 

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The early returns on Abraham Toro, Seattle Mariner

5

My how a few weeks can change things

By Michael Ajeto@dysthymikey  Aug 6, 2021, 11:45am PDT

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Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images

In the past few weeks, the Mariners have played very exciting, very competitive baseball. So competitive that they went out and made some moves that are equal parts win-now and win-later. One of those moves was a trade that sent Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Abraham Toro and Joe Smith. Given the betrayal that players voiced immediately after the trade, you have to think that the Mariners think highly of Toro. And after nearly two weeks’ worth of games in a Mariners uniform, you can see why.

Toro had spent three partial seasons with the Astros, in which he put up pretty lackluster numbers. Over 308 plate appearances, Toro posted a .193/.276/.350 triple slash, with a 6.8% walk percentage and 20.5% strikeout percentage. Given that Toro isn’t much of a fielder, such offensive numbers aren’t exactly tenable.

What’s important to remember is that Toro hasn’t gotten a fair shake. He’s been blocked by Alex Bregman and José Altuve, and, aside from a few late-season auditions in 2019 and 2020, he hasn’t been given the benefit of regular playing time. It wasn’t until a significant quad strain from Bregman in June that Toro got an extended look. The initial results were better, but not quite good. But since his move to the Mariners, Toro has been one of the best players in baseball. And that’s not an exaggeration.

Obviously, that’s couched in the acknowledgment that we’re dealing with an awfully small sample, but we’ve got to work with what we’ve got. And what we’ve got is pretty significant improvement thus far. Let’s compare!

• Astros, thru 7/26: .211/.287/.385, 7.4 BB%, 17.2 K%
• Mariners, from 7/27: .438/.500/.813, 8.3 BB%, 8.3 K%

This, admittedly, doesn’t tell us all that much. Especially given that we’re working with 122 and 36 plate appearances, respectively. We can see that Toro has been absolutely raking, and he’s cut his strikeout percentage. But everyone knows that Toro was not good in Houston, and that he’s been great in Seattle. So perhaps the focus should be on what’s changed.

One of Toro’s problems in Houston is that he hit too many towering fly balls. To visualize this, here’s a radial chart, showing the combination of Toro’s exit velocity and launch angle on his batted balls, on both teams:

The darker shades of green are the most optimal combinations of exit velocity and launch angle. You’ll notice that Toro didn’t hit many balls in either of the darker green areas with the Astros. Instead, you see lots of pop-ups and balls at 30 degrees or higher that aren’t hit quite hard enough. In fact, a lot of them were hit weakly. With the Astros, 71% of Toro’s batted balls were categorized as weakly hit. With the Mariners, that’s down to 55.2%, again with the obvious small sample caveat that this is (and will be) subject to fluctuation.

Borrowing from the previously used radial chart of Toro’s time with Astros, what he needs to do is avoid the area circled in green:

 

circled in green is the danger zone

These batted balls are in purgatory. They’re not soft enough to fall in for bloop singles, but they’re not quite hard enough to go over the fence either. As it goes, the higher the launch angle, the harder it is to hit the ball at high exit velocities. This is essentially the idea of Connor Kurcon’s dynamic hard hit rate. Toro hits quite a few sky-high fly balls, but since 2019, Toro’s average exit velocity on his fly balls ranks in the 21st percentile at 90.0 miles per hour. For reference, that’s just above the likes of Ben Gamel and Oscar Mercado, two players who aren’t exactly known for their power.

The thing is, those numbers speak to a player of diminutive stature, or a slap hitter. Toro is neither of those things. He’s always been said to have more gap power than raw power, but he’s not the type of hitter that Gamel and Mercado are, rather more along the lines of a .200 ISO hitter. And he’s flashed some of that in the past few weeks.

There’s an argument to be made that this is just a blip. It wouldn’t surprise me all that much. But also, there is perhaps an impetus for Toro’s surge in production:

I looked at some video myself comparing Toro’s time with the Astros earlier this season against his time with the Mariners. I didn’t find any significant mechanical differences. That’s not to suggest that there isn’t one — the verbiage here suggests it’s still a work in progress — but I do wonder if there’s something to this. Timing was something I noticed that was improved in Luis Torrens’ swing after his Triple-A stint. Perhaps the same is true of Toro.

One thing that this brings up for me is that, when he was in the minor leagues, Toro was a very good hitter. At every stop of the way, he made his money as a heavy pull, heavy fly ball hitter. At the major league level, this is something he’s gone away from, and it’s corresponded with a drop in production.

It’s not only that it was the approach Toro used when he was raking in the minors. There’s also that hitting for power to the opposite field is a difficult thing to do. And he hasn’t been good at it! Given that Toro’s power potential is already limited as is, then he’s got to create more consistent contact or optimize his batted ball profile in some way. It would behoove Toro to catch more balls out front and send them up in the air to his pull-side. If they’re wall scrapers, they’re wall scrapers. A home run is a home run, and the easiest way to hit one out is to pull it. That’s something that he’s starting to do a lot more of.

As an Astro, Toro hit 28.6% of his fly balls to his pull-side. As a Mariner, he’s bumped that up to 50%, and three of those six fly balls have flown out of the park. Perhaps as important, his 24,1% line drive percentage since joining the Mariners is a significant departure from his career 18.8% with the Astros. That’s still a smidge below league average, but as my colleague Alexander Chase put it, that’s plenty fine.

Abraham Toro has always had the skills. Look no further than his minor league track record. He doesn’t chase too many bad pitches, and he hardly swings and misses. For a player who’s just 24 years old — and a switch-hitter, at that — it shouldn’t be a surprise that it took him a while to get his feet under him. He now has the opportunity to play every day in a way that he did not with the Astros. And for the Mariners, it’s looking like they’ve just acquired a young hitter that they so desperately need.

 

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

 

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Jarred Kelenic’s swing mechanics are back and he’s not yet in final-form

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The swing we’re seeing isn’t brand new, it’s what we expected.

By Joe E. Doyle@JoeDoyleMiLB  Aug 6, 2021, 8:00am PDT

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Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

June 6, 2021, was a rough day in Los Angeles for Jarred Kelenic. Mired in an 0 for 39 slump, his batting average plummeting below .100, the kid needed a break. He’d never admit it, but Kelenic had completely gotten away from who he was at the plate. He was demoted to AAA-Tacoma that night, but those close to the 22-year-old Wisconsinite knew this would only stoke the embers that fuel his fire.

Seven weeks in Triple-A and a couple more weeks at the big league level and Kelenic appears to have rediscovered the swing that got him here in the first place.

Sean Smith, Founder of STiKS Academy and Kelenic’s swing coach since before he could legally drive a car, was the recipient of countless 2 a.m. phone calls.

“Did he reach out to me? Are you kidding?” Smith said. “Yeah, you could say he reached out to me.”

Smith couldn’t help but laugh through his answer. After all, he had become Kelenic’s pseudo-therapist.

Smith said the two spoke every night for weeks — months even. Home games for the Seattle Mariners generally end around 10:30 p.m. PST, well past midnight in Wisconsin. An hour or so after the final out, Smith’s phone would ring. Kelenic would send him film and would want to go over all the little nuances of his swing. He’d vent. He’d try to make sense of it. He’d try to talk his way into a successful game plan for the next day. Ultimately, Smith says, Kelenic just needed a breather.

“He was just a fish out of water,” Smith said. “I’m thankful he struggled, and I think he’s going to be thankful he struggled too. He was pressing. It all humbled him a bit. You could tell just speaking to him.”

Kelenic has alluded to as much since being recalled to the big league club.

“When he went down to Tacoma, he slowed things down,” Smith said. “Jarred really began to understand and appreciate what he had up there.”

It wasn’t just a mental approach though. Kelenic was still uncomfortable in the box. Sure, he spent seven weeks in Tacoma and beat up Triple-A pitching, but his swing still wasn’t conducive to succeeding at the big league level. He was rigid at the plate. His head would get cockeyed. The crouch that had morphed its way into his setup was stopping him from seeing the baseball the way he was accustomed to. Much like a golfer with a bad hitch in their swing, Kelenic couldn’t feel the flaw, but he could see it every day on film.

“It wasn’t Jarred,” Smith said. “If he wasn’t blowing out his front side, he couldn’t get to most pitches.”

Here’s a good example of that front hip flaring out and Kelenic blocking himself out of reaching the outside edge.

That mechanical breakdown in Kelenic’s swing inhibited his ability to cover the whole zone, specifically on breaking balls and off-speed pitches on the outer-third of the plate. The crouch and hand setup made catching up with velocity at the top of the zone a chore too. He was having to sellout for pitches before they were thrown. That won’t work at this level.

“What people might not understand about Jarred is he’s the ultimate student of the game,” Smith said. “He’s the most mature hitter I’ve ever come across. He’s not stubborn. He’ll listen to anyone.”

But the misconception here might be that Kelenic has somehow reinvented himself at the plate — that he has completely rebuilt his swing. That’s not the case. Smith believes it boils down to rhythm and timing with Kelenic. Posture and setup shouldn’t be an issue for too much longer.

On July 27 in pregame batting practice, it clicked. He forced his stance into a more familiar upright nature and suddenly he was seeing the baseball better. He eliminated the waggle and sway, lowered his hands back to where they’ve been in the past, got that bat angle into a healthier position, and began to look like the Jarred-of-old.

More than anything, it is the Kelenic that garnered enormous acclaim in 2019

The consistency in his setup and timing isn’t quite there yet, but it seems every time out, he’s beginning to look like his old self. His wrap is a little later than it used to be, and he’s coiling a bit later too. He’s played around with closing his stance and opening it back up, but this is a process. The tinkering never ends. The adjustments to this point are allowing his hands to work more independently. He’s shorter to the ball right now than he was earlier this season. He’s got the ability to lag and manipulate the barrel again without selling out. As he continues to get comfortable, the numbers may continue to improve. With Kelenic, it’s all about timing and he’s getting closer.

Since July 27 and his re-assimilation to the old swing, Kelenic is slashing .265/.368/.559 with three homers. He’s running an impressive 12.8 percent walk-rate and a much healthier 20.5 percent K-rate. Over this 9-game stretch, he’s posted a 148 wRC+.

“Jarred is a freak — he’s a freak athlete,” Smith said. “It won’t take long. Once he gets in rhythm, and he will, it’ll be good.”

Barely 22 years old, Kelenic is going through the paces pretty much every young player goes through. But he’s making adjustments and he’s figuring it out. All the things you assumed about Kelenic before he debuted have not changed. He’s tireless, thirsty for greatness and more than talented enough to be a star. Sometimes you just have to take your medicine first.

 

 

 

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Marco is dealing!  (unfortunately, so is NYY's bullpen so far).

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Toro The Man drives in our first RBI of the night.  1-0 Mariners.

 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

Fuck off

[Helobious 9451]

Gardy party’d. Amazing what can happen when you don’t try to hit the ball into the moon like rizzo & judge were.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Missed most of this one so far.  Not looking great, but not completely out of it yet

Edited August 7, 2021 by MC Fresh Breath

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Shit hit the fan in bot 6. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Was wondering.  Went from 4-1 to 5-4 in a jiffy.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

I read he was bad on the Astros, but so far Joe Smith has pitched well for the M’s.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Loaisiga has some nasty stuff.  Chapman to IL is a boon for NYY.  Yankees win.

[TonyTexas 10508]

4 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

I read he was bad on the Astros, but so far Joe Smith has pitched well for the M’s.

I think that trade was the rare win/win. Though he’s a rental, we are trying to win now and Graveman has been close to perfect for us so far and Montero is an upgrade to some of the stiffs that he replaced. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Bases loaded with 3-2 count and blue calls an obvious ball a strike.  The Yankees don’t need help, ump.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Yeah, fuck you, blue.

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Damn rando C again. 

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Easy game, never a doubt. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Had to listen to last inning as I was on the road.  Hey, we didn’t get swept!

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

We’re starting a lefty scrub, y’all should coast. 

 

[miguelito 11255]

Last time you said we should sweep, and we lost 2 of 3.  I guess you were right that the M's should have swept, so maybe the players carry some of the blame.  Not all, but some.

[Biff Tannen 45665]

47 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Last time you said we should sweep, and we lost 2 of 3.  I guess you were right that the M's should have swept, so maybe the players carry some of the blame.  Not all, but some.

I 100% blame spy. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

we should have beat the Rangers, so we lost.  We should have got swept by the Rays, so we took that series. The Yankees, well they were all close games.  So yeah, a blow out by the Rangers would follow along at this point. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Now Torrens can’t hit.  Can’t catch, can’t hit…

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

How’s Gilbert looking?

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Gave up one HR, but otherwise not horrible.  He is better when he mixes things up instead of all fastballs all the time.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Hanibomb 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Seager’s  turn.

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Bet Torrens would have held on to that one. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

 I was just going to write” Murphy pulls a Torrens.”

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

I really hope the Mariners sign some bats this off season 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

That’s a bad start to the 9th for us.  Good for Spy.

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Have no fear, the Rangers' bullpen is here! 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Things get interesting 

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

3 walks seems poor. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Wow.  

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Well, this is like which team can out-dork the other. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

No kidding.  Why did JP or Mitch even take the bat off their shoulders? 

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Of course, who didn't want more stellar ball? 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Holy crap.  Extra innings for this game.

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Let’s see what happens in bottom 10 now. One pitch makes it 5-4. 

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Well, that one won’t go into any Emanski how-to DVDs. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

So much for coasting.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Perfect summary of last night from Lookout Landing.

 

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Mariners, Rangers use each other as pace cars in World’s Most Quotidian Race, Mariners lose 4-5 in extras

Chaos ball giveth and chaos ball taketh, and tonight it was pure taketh. Really, though, this wasn’t even chaos ball so much as it was a bland, boring baseball game that happened to go to extras, played between two teams that seemed intent on matching each other’s—what’s the opposite of a frenetic pace? Robotic, maybe? Just one where each team seems to be going through the motions en route to one of the least exciting extra-innings games I can remember

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by MC Fresh Breath

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

 

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Would have been really weird if his statue had someone else’s name on it. 

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Posted without comment. 

 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

So now they just up and moved us to Los Angeles?!?  Wtf man!?!

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Just now tuned in.  Good gravy. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

As riveting as this is, I am not staying up for it.

[shadow_operative2.0 15950]

Y’all gonna walk this shit off!