Brexit shenanigans

[WhatTheBuck 28,854]

When I saw this thread was bumped I figured it had to be John Oliver's piece from last night. Brilliant. So glad he's back. Three months was a long wait. 

[kevwun 15,971]

Too bad I can't watch him because AT&T is making ridiculous contract demands to Dish.  That AT&T & Directv merger was a great idea.

[hpslugga 4,069]

On 2/18/2019 at 2:20 PM, WhatTheBuck said:

When I saw this thread was bumped I figured it had to be John Oliver's piece from last night. Brilliant. So glad he's back. Three months was a long wait. 

It was a great piece and if anyone still harbors the idea that Brexit is a prudent thing to do, they need to have their head examined.

[yaqdum 182]

apparently the first ref was ridiculously simple.  along the lines of:  do you want to go or do we stay?

oliver correctly says that muddying the question with the various alternatives is likely tantamount to disaster, so make a new ref just as simple:  do you still want to go or do we stay?  if the vote is still to go, then it is a real problem that is going to have to be resolved, but if the vote is to stay, then disaster averted.

 

Edited February 21, 2019 by yaqdum

[bernorange 8,377]

15 minutes ago, yaqdum said:

apparently the first ref was ridiculously simple.  along the lines of:  do you want to go or do we stay?

...

Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know

[hpslugga 4,069]

36 minutes ago, yaqdum said:

apparently the first ref was ridiculously simple.  along the lines of:  do you want to go or do we stay?

oliver correctly says that muddying the question with the various alternatives is likely tantamount to disaster, so make a new ref just as simple:  do you still want to go or do we stay?  if the vote is still to go, then it is a real problem that is going to have to be resolved, but if the vote is to stay, then disaster averted.

 

The problem is, as Oliver correctly states, such a referendum couldn't be properly organized for nearly 4 months, and they're set to get out in less than 2. They're beyond screwed, and both Scotland and Northern Ireland need to seriously consider referenda regarding, respectively, independence and reunification in the coming years. Northern Ireland is particularly screwed with that hard border nightmare scenario, and Scotland voted down that 2014 referendum largely because there was an understanding among the No voters that the UK would remain in the EU. Had they the slightest idea that they'd lose their fucking minds with this silly-assed Brexit nonsense, that referendum would have been Yes'ed out the ass. I would recommend the same for Wales, but they're cowards, so fuck them.

[Ghost of LL 15,606]

19 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

The problem is, as Oliver correctly states, such a referendum couldn't be properly organized for nearly 4 months, and they're set to get out in less than 2. They're beyond screwed, and both Scotland and Northern Ireland need to seriously consider referenda regarding, respectively, independence and reunification in the coming years. Northern Ireland is particularly screwed with that hard border nightmare scenario, and Scotland voted down that 2014 referendum largely because there was an understanding among the No voters that the UK would remain in the EU. Had they the slightest idea that they'd lose their fucking minds with this silly-assed Brexit nonsense, that referendum would have been Yes'ed out the ass. I would recommend the same for Wales, but they're cowards, so fuck them.

Yeah, but at this point, the EU would agree to a three-month extension of Brexit in order to hold a second referendum.  That'd be especially true if the options were "Remain" or "No-Deal Brexit."  Remain would win going away, which us ultimately what the EU probably wants.

[hpslugga 4,069]

19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah, but at this point, the EU would agree to a three-month extension of Brexit in order to hold a second referendum.  That'd be especially true if the options were "Remain" or "No-Deal Brexit."  Remain would win going away, which us ultimately what the EU probably wants.

That's all well and good, but there's a second problem:

Would they actually vote to remain in the EU on such a short notice? I mean I get that the parliament is overwhelmingly against this, but I have no reading on the population. Are there any indications that such a referendum would yield a different outcome?

[sidis 9,893]

Just now, hpslugga said:

That's all well and good, but there's a second problem:

Would they actually vote to remain in the EU on such a short notice? I mean I get that the parliament is overwhelmingly against this, but I have no reading on the population. Are there any indications that such a referendum would yield a different outcome? 

it is all speculation but i suspect it would now.  but not overwhelmingly so.

the most hilarious part of all this is the british government (and its population's) utter surprise and disappointment that the e.u. didn't just lay down in the negotiations and give them everything they wanted.  fucking hilarious nincompoops.

[Ghost of LL 15,606]

1 minute ago, hpslugga said:

That's all well and good, but there's a second problem:

Would they actually vote to remain in the EU on such a short notice? I mean I get that the parliament is overwhelmingly against this, but I have no reading on the population. Are there any indications that such a referendum would yield a different outcome?

I think the polling indicates that it would.  But British polling is notoriously troublesome, so who knows.

[hpslugga 4,069]

2 minutes ago, sidis said:

the most hilarious part of all this is the british government (and its population's) utter surprise and disappointment that the e.u. didn't just lay down in the negotiations and give them everything they wanted.  fucking hilarious nincompoops.

They still believe that the world revolves around them. Brits like to squawk about "French arrogance" or "American arrogance," but that's like Usain Bolt deriding Richard Thorempson and Walter Dix for running the 100 meter dash. 

[elfenix 34,400]

12 minutes ago, sidis said:

it is all speculation but i suspect it would now.  but not overwhelmingly so.

the most hilarious part of all this is the british government (and its population's) utter surprise and disappointment that the e.u. didn't just lay down in the negotiations and give them everything they wanted.  fucking hilarious nincompoops.

"you're not giving us everything we want even though we have the best deal of any country in the EU and just over half of us vaguely want out so give us everything we want!"

[Brisketexan 105,786]

24 minutes ago, sidis said:

it is all speculation but i suspect it would now.  but not overwhelmingly so.

the most hilarious part of all this is the british government (and its population's) utter surprise and disappointment that the e.u. didn't just lay down in the negotiations and give them everything they wanted.  fucking hilarious nincompoops.

Again, they voted for the fantasy.  When you take into account the fact that the fantasy was outlandish and not reality-based from the get-go.....then reality was inevitably going to be quite disappointing.

They voted to go to prom based on the expectation it would be with:

Because a chick like that would totally get with the average brit, no problem.

Even if they ended up negotiating something more realistic, like this:

They still would have been WILDLY disappointed, because she's not Giselle.

Even worse, their bargaining position was so much shittier than they expected, the best date they could muster up was this:

Sorry, UK.  You ain't as dead-sexy and desirable as you deluded yourselves into thinking.  So, you wanna go to prom with her?  Or would you rather just stick with the regular gal you've been dating?

[Fudge Nuggets 19,299]

14 minutes ago, elfenix said:

"you're not giving us everything we want even though we have the best deal of any country in the EU and just over half of us vaguely want out so give us everything we want!"

Sounds just like our Republicans. 

[bolverk 29,847]

ERIN GO BRAGH!

Quote

 

The move to secede, called Brexit and triggered by a slim majority (51.9%) in a national referendum, has unfolded as a Shakespearean tragedy of reckless vanity and hubris, shaped by quasi-comical political chaos in London [and has turned Ireland] into an attractive destination for upwards of 12,000 once-British jobs, according to the City of London’s own estimates.

“Brexit is creating a contrast that hasn’t existed before,” says Kenneth Armstrong, a professor of European law at the University of Cambridge and author of Brexit Time. “It has unleashed Britain’s demons and given Ireland a halo. Ireland seems modern just as Westminster’s system of muddling through makes Britain seem like a Victorian relic.”

****

It’s not hard to find evidence of economic ambition in Ireland’s largest cities. In the Irish capital, the storied Trinity College is building the first unadjoined part of its campus since its founding in 1592: a billion-euro, 5.5-acre, 400-startup “innovation district” with the aim of turning the university into Europe’s MIT or Stanford. Apple—which has been in Cork, on the southern tip of the island, since 1980—expanded its campus in the city last year from 5,000 to 6,000 employees. In Limerick, Ireland’s third-biggest city, 2 billion euros’ worth of planning projects have been submitted over the past decade, according to estimates by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services. In Galway, on the west coast, a two-acre, 100-million-euro, 370,000-square-foot waterfront complex is under development, a response to continued demand for Irish office space. Suddenly, Ireland has become a nesting ground for a flock of towering beasts once thought to be the stuff of fantasy: construction cranes.

Executives at some of the world’s largest banks have noticed. Ahead of the Brexit deadline, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and Barclays moved their EU headquarters from London to Dublin in a bid to minimize disruption; Barclays alone has shifted some $215 billion in asset management to the Irish capital. (Both banks declined to comment on the moves.) Rivals Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs have promised to bulk up their own Dublin operations in the face of U.K. uncertainty, even as they maintain offices in the British capital.

****

The ascent of Ireland as a global player and the subtle shift in power between it and the U.K. isn’t going over well with some in Britain—namely, the Brexit supporters who remain in Parliament. One Conservative member derided “the obdurate Irish government” for being overly concerned with border issues. Another was widely condemned in December for suggesting that Downing Street use the threat of economic damage, including food shortages, to compel Ireland to agree to a more favorable deal for the U.K.—an uncomfortable echo of the Great Famine of the 19th century. “We simply cannot allow the Irish to treat us this way,” an unnamed member of Parliament reportedly told a BBC columnist that same month, adding: “The Irish really should know their place.”

 

2

http://fortune.com/2019/02/21/brexit-ireland-crown/

Like America, the UK has its own nationalist "exceptionalism" problem and think they can just say "piss off" to the rest of the world. I sure as shit hope we don't continue to follow in their footsteps on the road to ruin when the rest of the American empire has finally crumbled.

Edited February 21, 2019 by bolverk
hate how posting on this site with the quotes function keeps fucking up

[Brisketexan 105,786]

ERIN GO BRAGH!

 
The move to secede, called Brexit and triggered by a slim majority (51.9%) in a national referendum, has unfolded as a Shakespearean tragedy of reckless vanity and hubris, shaped by quasi-comical political chaos in London [and has turned Ireland] into an attractive destination for upwards of 12,000 once-British jobs, according to the City of London’s own estimates.
“Brexit is creating a contrast that hasn’t existed before,” says Kenneth Armstrong, a professor of European law at the University of Cambridge and author of Brexit Time. “It has unleashed Britain’s demons and given Ireland a halo. Ireland seems modern just as Westminster’s system of muddling through makes Britain seem like a Victorian relic.”
****
It’s not hard to find evidence of economic ambition in Ireland’s largest cities. In the Irish capital, the storied Trinity College is building the first unadjoined part of its campus since its founding in 1592: a billion-euro, 5.5-acre, 400-startup “innovation district” with the aim of turning the university into Europe’s MIT or Stanford. Apple—which has been in Cork, on the southern tip of the island, since 1980—expanded its campus in the city last year from 5,000 to 6,000 employees. In Limerick, Ireland’s third-biggest city, 2 billion euros’ worth of planning projects have been submitted over the past decade, according to estimates by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services. In Galway, on the west coast, a two-acre, 100-million-euro, 370,000-square-foot waterfront complex is under development, a response to continued demand for Irish office space. Suddenly, Ireland has become a nesting ground for a flock of towering beasts once thought to be the stuff of fantasy: construction cranes.
Executives at some of the world’s largest banks have noticed. Ahead of the Brexit deadline, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and Barclays moved their EU headquarters from London to Dublin in a bid to minimize disruption; Barclays alone has shifted some $215 billion in asset management to the Irish capital. (Both banks declined to comment on the moves.) Rivals Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs have promised to bulk up their own Dublin operations in the face of U.K. uncertainty, even as they maintain offices in the British capital.
****
The ascent of Ireland as a global player and the subtle shift in power between it and the U.K. isn’t going over well with some in Britain—namely, the Brexit supporters who remain in Parliament. One Conservative member derided “the obdurate Irish government” for being overly concerned with border issues. Another was widely condemned in December for suggesting that Downing Street use the threat of economic damage, including food shortages, to compel Ireland to agree to a more favorable deal for the U.K.—an uncomfortable echo of the Great Famine of the 19th century. “We simply cannot allow the Irish to treat us this way,” an unnamed member of Parliament reportedly told a BBC columnist that same month, adding: “The Irish really should know their place.”
 
2

http://fortune.com/2019/02/21/brexit-ireland-crown/
Like America, the UK has its own nationalist "exceptionalism" problem and think they can just say "piss off" to the rest of the world. I sure as shit hope we don't continue to follow in their footsteps on the road to ruin when the rest of the American empire has finally crumbled.

We will. “Stupid” is our brand.

[sidis 9,893]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Again, they voted for the fantasy.  When you take into account the fact that the fantasy was outlandish and not reality-based from the get-go.....then reality was inevitably going to be quite disappointing.

They voted to go to prom based on the expectation it would be with:

Because a chick like that would totally get with the average brit, no problem.

Even if they ended up negotiating something more realistic, like this:

They still would have been WILDLY disappointed, because she's not Giselle.

Even worse, their bargaining position was so much shittier than they expected, the best date they could muster up was this:

Sorry, UK.  You ain't as dead-sexy and desirable as you deluded yourselves into thinking.  So, you wanna go to prom with her?  Or would you rather just stick with the regular gal you've been dating?

i mean, that's all good and well but would have been more apropos had you used keeley hazell or something instead of giselle...the brasiliana is not the issue here man.

 

[Brisketexan 105,786]

i mean, that's all good and well but would have been more apropos had you used keeley hazell or something instead of giselle...the brasiliana is not the issue here man.

 

....and that’s fair. Amendment accepted.

[Anastasis 23,529]

8 hours ago, sidis said:

i mean, that's all good and well but would have been more apropos had you used keeley hazell or something instead of giselle...the brasiliana is not the issue here man.

 

+ rep on principle. 

[elfenix 34,400]

i like that when brisket quotes it the picture is bigger

[HenryJames 66,394]

That’s not the only thing that got bigger amirite.

[HenryJames 66,394]

 

[bolverk 29,847]

Political parties/movements Putin supports in Europe:

• UKIP in the UK
• Alternative for Deutschland in Germany
• National Front in France
• Northern League in Italy
• Freedom Party in the Netherlands
• Flemish Interest in Belgium
• Golden Dawn in Greece
• Various hate groups

What do they all have common? A literal White Nationalist agenda that leans heavily toward (if not self-confessed) fascism with goals toward breaking-up their individual countries or the EU that would lead to the eventual destruction of the Western Alliance as we know it.

Now, ask yourself who he supports in the US and why that would be so. If it doesn't make you question your own support for the recipients of his assistance in the US, you might be part of the problem.

[Rimbo 26,483]

imgur

 

I like how the photo makes it look like May is behind bars.

[Brisketexan 105,786]

"Gentlemen!  I have a BRILLIANT new proposal for you.  This time, how about you agree to something you completely rejected just a little while ago!  What's that?  No?  Okay, I tried."

[elfenix 34,400]

is this dumb shit actually going to happen?

[Brisketexan 105,786]

1 minute ago, elfenix said:

is this dumb shit actually going to happen?

Odds are that there's some sort of material delay in timing so that they can try another option.

Of course, that will fail, too.  Because there really are only two options -- no Brexit, or hard Brexit.  Right now, the UK is trying to negotiate the functional equivalent of "let's get a divorce, but you still give me blowjobs twice a month."  It's an EXCELLENT goal.  But it's pure fantasy.  You either get divorced, or you don't.  Those are the choices.  And your fantasy of "I can totally do better.  If I wasn't married, I'd be banging Charlize Theron and Kate Beckinsale every weekend" is not exactly the best foundation for sound decision making.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

My bet:

They’re going to kick the can until it’s someone else’s problem. 

[Biff Tannen 45,791]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Odds are that there's some sort of material delay in timing so that they can try another option.

Of course, that will fail, too.  Because there really are only two options -- no Brexit, or hard Brexit.  Right now, the UK is trying to negotiate the functional equivalent of "let's get a divorce, but you still give me blowjobs twice a month."  It's an EXCELLENT goal.  But it's pure fantasy.  You either get divorced, or you don't.  Those are the choices.  And your fantasy of "I can totally do better.  If I wasn't married, I'd be banging Charlize Theron and Kate Beckinsale every weekend" is not exactly the best foundation for sound decision making.

[relapse98 634]

44 minutes ago, elfenix said:

is this dumb shit actually going to happen?

I don't think so. The EU is gonna give them the time they need to come to their senses.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

Just now, relapse98 said:

I don't think so. The EU is gonna give them the time they need to come to their senses.

The EU will give them the time they need if the UK asks for it.  But now it is looking more and more like the UK is just going to let March 29 roll past before they get their shit together enough to even ask for an extension.

[GopherRock 1,773]

Vote coming at appx. 2 PM CDT today on the re-negotiated deal. The DUP had already announced they will oppose it. 

[GopherRock 1,773]

May's second deal trounced again, something like 202 aye, 391 nay.

Vote on a no-deal departure tomorrow, then request for extension on Thursday. 

[SimonBolivar 10,963]

2 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

May's second deal trounced again, something like 202 aye, 391 nay.

Vote on a no-deal departure tomorrow, then request for extension on Thursday. 

What a shitshow.

[David Dennison 19,149]

How on earth is this woman still PM?

[Lagunamadre 1,975]

23 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

My bet:

They’re going to kick the can until it’s someone else’s problem. 

The ol' US Debt play. Classic. 

[Lagunamadre 1,975]

If it weren't so fucking consequential the EU top brass would be laughing their dicks off right now, they might be anyways. 

[Rimbo 26,483]

21 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

How on earth is this woman still PM?

How on earth does Trump still have supporters in the Senate and in the general public? Same way... people will fool themselves into believing all kinds of bullshit if they don't check themselves.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[elfenix 34,400]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

How on earth is this woman still PM?

no one else wants to deal with this shit pile.

[Bat Guano 359]

4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

no one else wants to deal with this shit pile.

Honestly, I think that's a large part of it.

[Biff Tannen 45,791]

Oh, so it's like my HOA.

[bolverk 29,847]

Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish first minister, sounds pissed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47544485

Quote

 

Ms Sturgeon told BBC Scotland that Mrs May "only has herself to blame" for the defeat, and said "by rights this prime minister and government should be out of office this evening".

She said: "Here we have a UK teetering on the edge, and a government that has just stopped functioning.

"What has to happen now is the House of Commons must vote decisively tomorrow to take no deal off the table completely.

"And then there must be an extension to Article 50, long enough to allow for another EU referendum to take place. Because if parliament can't decide - and parliament has failed to decide - then the people surely must decide."

'Brink of catastrophe'
The SNP leader also said she was "very angry at what is unfolding".

She said: "I'm spending an inordinate amount of time right now planning for the possibility of not having medicine supplies, food supplies, exporters not being able to get their goods to market.

"I am very angry that we have government that has been incompetent, that has failed to listen and that has brought the UK - Scotland included - to the brink of catastrophe, and still tonight seem to be oblivious to the damage they're doing."

Ms Sturgeon also said that "in the fullness of time" Scots should be offered a choice as to whether to "carry on down this disastrous path with the UK" or "prosper and succeed with independence".

 

The next couple of days are going to be monumental.

From the BBC:

Edited March 12, 2019 by bolverk

[Gengs1 2,583]

They won’t do it but they just need to bite the bullet and force another vote to stay.

i really like how EU is saying a big FU to them and sticking to its proposal

[hpslugga 4,069]

14 hours ago, bolverk said:

Ms Sturgeon also said that "in the fullness of time" Scots should be offered a choice as to whether to "carry on down this disastrous path with the UK" or "prosper and succeed with independence".

DO IT

Seriously, I cannot see any reason that Scotland would be better off in the middle of this self-destructive shit show than it would as an independent state and a member of the EU.

Edited March 13, 2019 by hpslugga

[bolverk 29,847]

3 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

DO IT

Seriously, I cannot see any reason that Scotland would be better off in the middle of this self-destructive shit show than it would as an independent state and a member of the EU.

I share your Schadenfreude and disdain for the arrogance of the Brits and, yeah, it'd be hilarious to watch them circle round the drain pipe. Only, I keep coming back to the damage a no-deal Brexit would reap on the world's economy and stability. Plus, I know there are quite many who'd prefer not to see the conclusion of the Empire be their return to a minor European province which would force Scots to man Hadrian's Wall for once.

[Brisketexan 105,786]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

I share your Schadenfreude and disdain for the arrogance of the Brits and, yeah, it'd be hilarious to watch them circle round the drain pipe. Only, I keep coming back to the damage a no-deal Brexit would reap on the world's economy and stability. Plus, I know there are quite many who'd prefer not to see the conclusion of the Empire be their return to a minor European province which would force Scots to man Hadrian's Wall for once.

Agreed. But when you're on the Titanic, and the crew insists on heading right for that fucking iceberg, the smart move is to get in a lifeboat and GTFO.  Scotland should GTFO.  Northern Ireland might, too.

England is entitled to shoot itself in the dick.  Scotland and Northern Ireland are entitled to say '''united' kingdom my ass -- see ya later."

[TornACL 7,767]

On my drive home from the airport last night I was listening to some NPR/BBC coverage of the Brexit vote. They had some small business lobbyist from the UK who was extolling the virtues of Brexit and what wonderful opportunities it will open up for UK small business. Cited as the primary examples were the opportunities to sell books and backpacks (seriously, those were the two products named) to India and China directly.

I haven't followed this story closely but two questions. What is it about the current EU structure that prevents UK backpack manufacturers from competing in the global marketplace?  And if the problem is that UK backpack manufacturers cannot compete within the EU, what makes them think they can compete globally?

[hpslugga 4,069]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Agreed. But when you're on the Titanic, and the crew insists on heading right for that fucking iceberg, the smart move is to get in a lifeboat and GTFO.  Scotland should GTFO.  Northern Ireland might, too.

England is entitled to shoot itself in the dick.  Scotland and Northern Ireland are entitled to say '''united' kingdom my ass -- see ya later."

That's really the bottom line. One of the big reasons that Scotland narrowly voted down that 2014 referendum was that it was understood at the time that 1) the UK government would allow it to further devolve and 2) that the UK would stay in the EU. The fact that they reneged on item 2 raises serious doubts about item 1, and the thing is that the referendum was a straight up "should we stay or should we go" question. If they'd been given more expanded options, Devolution and Independence would have prevailed over UK Loyalty, and that would be even more true in the wake of this foolish Brexit nonsense. Northern Ireland has its own baggage with that inevitable hard border, but the result is the same: they're better off not having to deal with that than...having to deal with that. My own personal preference has been for an independent Scotland, an independent Wales, and a reunified Ireland, and while I'll grant the premise that a lot of that is sentimental, it's becoming more of a practical/survival issue of the present day. I see no real reason to believe that those 3 countries would be better off still attached to that albatross rather than independent/reunified and as members of the EU. If someone could present a credible case against that, I'm seriously willing to listen/read, but at the present I really don't see it.

[elfenix 34,400]

3 hours ago, hpslugga said:

DO IT

Seriously, I cannot see any reason that Scotland would be better off in the middle of this self-destructive shit show than it would as an independent state and a member of the EU.

they think a land border on a colonial island possession is a hard problem, just wait until scotland is part of the EU and england isn't.