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Brexit shenanigans


bernorange

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For anyone who actually cares about facts on the ground, there have been several important developments, which you will have to google to confirm since I'm not going to link them, since the Brexit vote happened.

The PM's of France and Germany both came public with their plans for fiscal unity. Both of them also came public with their plans for unifying the continental armed forces under one military command. The EU has passed a directive which, in effect, destroys the free internet as we know it. The UN has passed a directive, which is considered to be legally binding by the EU, that enforces open borders for every country that is a member of the UN.

I have no idea what will happen, except that it will be a shitshow. But my original hypothesis was that the EU is a mutual suicide pact, and I see no valid reason to revise that hypothesis. The Brits see a train wreck and want to get off, but they don't see any kind of clear path to success, because they're morons with terrible teeth.

We're all going to hell on the fast train. America alone.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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11 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

For anyone who actually cares about facts on the ground, there have been several important developments, which you will have to google to confirm since I'm not going to link them, since the Brexit vote happened.

The PM's of France and Germany both came public with their plans for fiscal unity. Both of them also came public with their plans for unifying the continental armed forces under one military command. The EU has passed a directive which, in effect, destroys the free internet as we know it. The UN has passed a directive, which is considered to be legally binding by the EU, that enforces open borders for every country that is a member of the UN.

I have no idea what will happen, except that it will be a shitshow. But my original hypothesis was that the EU is a mutual suicide pact, and I see no valid reason to revise that hypothesis. The Brits see a train wreck and want to get off, but they don't see any kind of clear path to success, because they're morons with terrible teeth.

We're all going to hell on the fast train. America alone.

Christ you're a fucking moron

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the eurozone needs a coordinated budget because the euro is a suicide pact if one isn't worked out (the euro, as currently structured, can only work if the entire EU exports like germany does.  that isn't possible.  greece isn't going to start building BMWs)

trump's shitting on NATO has led europe to figure out they need their own shit together. i figured someone such as yourself who undoubtedly thinks europe needs to pick up its own defense budget would be jumping for joy at this.

fuck article 13.  fuck FOSTA-SESTA too (murders of pros is up thanks to that piece of shit camel's nose under the tent wall that's going to lead the US to some article 13 bullshit).  strong section 230 forever!

the global compact for migration isn't a treaty and isn't binding under international law. 

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7 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

For anyone who actually cares about facts on the ground, there have been several important developments, which you will have to google to confirm since I'm not going to link them, since the Brexit vote happened.

The PM's of France and Germany both came public with their plans for fiscal unity. Both of them also came public with their plans for unifying the continental armed forces under one military command. The EU has passed a directive which, in effect, destroys the free internet as we know it. The UN has passed a directive, which is considered to be legally binding by the EU, that enforces open borders for every country that is a member of the UN.

I have no idea what will happen, except that it will be a shitshow. But my original hypothesis was that the EU is a mutual suicide pact, and I see no valid reason to revise that hypothesis. The Brits see a train wreck and want to get off, but they don't see any kind of clear path to success, because they're morons with terrible teeth.

We're all going to hell on the fast train. America alone.

Intentional or not, your avatar is the perfect characterization of your posts.

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So the news this evening that May is going to work with Labour on a possible solution is a positive outcome.  For one thing, it means a softer Brexit (and possibly no Brexit at all).  And secondly, it makes Corbyn complicit in the outcome and prevents him from just sitting and snipping.  

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52 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So the news this evening that May is going to work with Labour on a possible solution is a positive outcome.  For one thing, it means a softer Brexit (and possibly no Brexit at all).  And secondly, it makes Corbyn complicit in the outcome and prevents him from just sitting and snipping.  

I'm starting to think the best outcome for everyone would be the Norway model. Even better than cancelling Brexit.  The EU shouldn't have any members who aren't committed to the Euro, and the special arrangement that the UK has had shouldn't be acceptable any more. 

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2 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

I'm starting to think the best outcome for everyone would be the Norway model. Even better than cancelling Brexit.  The EU shouldn't have any members who aren't committed to the Euro, and the special arrangement that the UK has had shouldn't be acceptable any more. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-reserves-draghi/countries-must-seek-ecb-approval-to-manage-gold-reserves-draghi-idUSF9N1XJ02N

All your gold and FX are belong to us.  /ECB

Fuck that.

 

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Cooper deal rules out no-deal Brexit:

Quote

It's been a long day in Westminster, where lawmakers have voted by a majority of one to effectively rule out a no-deal Brexit in the near-term.

If Theresa May can't salvage her Withdrawal Agreement in the coming days, Britain now looks to be headed for a longer delay to its departure from the EU.

And the complaint from the Brexiteers on this is RICH:

Quote

Hardline Brexiteer Mark Francois then made a point of order. "It’s difficult to argue that you’ve had an extremely considered debate when you’ve rammed the bill through the house of Commons in barely four hours," he said. "That is a constitutional outrage."

"It went through in the end by one vote," he added. "That to me does not represent the long-term settled will of the House of Commons."

Oh....I'm sorry....are we now taking the position that huge issues decided by the narrowest of margins are not a good thing?  Interesting, coming from someone who has declared irrevocable a general referendum that won with 51.89% vs. 48.11% of the votes.  

UX2frFR.gif

Edited by Brisketexan
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British MEP and prominent Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage is on course to defeat the U.K.’s main political parties at next month’s European Parliament elections — unless the country’s quarreling MPs can strike a deal to leave the bloc quickly.

Farage’s newly formed Brexit Party has a strong lead over both U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s ruling Conservatives and the opposition Labour Party, according to influential pollsters — suggesting the British public are angry and frustrated at their elected leaders’ inability to deliver Brexit on time.

The U.K. recently secured a six-month extension to the Brexit process, to October 31, to give parliamentarians more time to reach a consensus on exit terms and avoid a potentially damaging no-deal scenario. But if May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn cannot strike an accord before May 22, the U.K. will have to take part in European elections.

A leading YouGov poll found Farage’s party is favored by 27% of voters, with Labour on 22% and the Conservatives on 15%.

...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-brief-farage-scourge-of-the-eu-pulls-ahead-in-the-polls-2019-04-18?mod=mw_theo_homepage

Quote

NIGEL Farage opened up his Brexit Party’s PayPal account last night — to reveal 60,000 paid-up supporters in just nine days since its launch.

Fed-up voters have stumped up £1.5million, joining at the rate of one every 30 seconds and boosting coffers by £50 a minute.

Last night the former Ukip leader boasted he will soon have more backers than the “dying” Tory party and be set to change the face of British politics.

He said: “I’m getting a good vibe just by looking at the sheer numbers who are joining us. I’ve been reading their letters and emails. They feel let down

“We’re going to field 70 candidates in the Euro elections but it won’t stop there. This is now a long-term commitment we’re taking on and we’re going for it.”
Nigel Farage promises new Brexit vision as he prepares to wipe out Tories
HUGE APPETITE FOR FARAGE

Unlike the main political parties, nearly every penny of funding comes small donors. He logged on to the PayPal account to let us see the range of people paying £25 to become registered supporters — with 15,811 joining on launch day alone.

Mr Farage reckons that by polling day on May 23 the party will have overtaken the Tories’ 120,000 members. He said: “Our critics can’t believe this is happening.

“There are no concessions for young or old. No £3 membership fee like Labour. It’s a flat rate — and people are still joining. It shows the huge appetite there is.”
...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8906221/nigel-farage-brexit-party-signs-supporters-million-rally-nottingham/

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Tory stalwart Ann Widdecombe hopes to give 'cloth ear' MPs a bloody nose after she sensationally defected to Nigel Farage's Brexit Party today and said her new leader should be on a pedestal with Margaret Thatcher.

The former minister, who was a Tory member for 55 years and appeared on Strictly in 2010, has put retirement on hold because she believes Theresa May and Parliament have betrayed the 17.4million who voted to leave the EU.

Paying tribute to the former UKIP leader's political record she said: 'Nigel Farage has been more successful than any politician other than Margaret Thatcher in my lifetime in getting his agenda through, and he's done this from outside Westminster'.

She has pledged to 'campaign vigorously' for the Brexit Party in the upcoming European elections in May and will stand against Boris Johnson's sister Rachel and Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister Annunziata in the South West.

She told Good Morning Britain: 'I'm on a mission. We need to send a seismic shock to both parties that the electorate have had enough. Just get it done. The cloth ears in Parliament are not hearing us. If we win an overwhelming majority this will send a shock wave and MPs will have to listen. This is not a protest vote, far from it. It is a means of trying to galvanise Westminster into getting this issue dealt with'.

The 71-year-old has joined Mr Farage's new party to try to get Britain out of the EU - and hopes that more big names will defect from the Tories and Labour.
...

More:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6953187/Tory-grandee-Widdecombe-defects-Farages-Brexit-Party.html

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...
I never thought our political class would deliberately undermine the people.

But they have done so by failing to deliver on the 2016 referendum. This after the 2018 General Election manifestos of the Conservative and Labour parties clearly pledged to honour the result.

Voters on all sides have been betrayed. The final straw for me was seeing the men who sent me to a questionable war in Afghanistan — Tony Blair, Lord Adonis and Alastair Campbell — conspiring to undermine the people.

They have been colluding with other governments in Europe to stop Brexit.

It is vital we stand up against the damage this hardcore group who want to create an EU super-state are inflicting on British democracy.

It is deeply saddening to see the divisions across our country. People voted to Remain and Leave for a range of legitimate reasons.

We are in this position due to John Major and Tony Blair’s arrogance in not consulting the people on the treaties that embedded us in the EU — Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon.

The public should have been consulted on these major transfers of power from Parliament towards the supranational structures of the EU.

We are now left with this political mess as their legacy.
...

More:  https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8933191/james-glancy-brexit-party-voters-feel-ignored/

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Brexit is going to continue to be a mess and now the EU is essentially allowing the U.K. to infect the EU parliament with some % of this mess by allowing them to vote.

 

I am for Brexit and for following through with the will of the people, but as a pure political play it was a mistake by the EU to allow the extension because of its impact on the EU parliament. 

 

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BREXIT SHOCK: Farage party SOARS in EU Election vote with FIVE POINT boost - latest polls

NIGEL FARAGE'S Brexit Party has soared into a six point lead over nearest rivals the Labour Party, according to the latest polls.

By Thomas Mackie
PUBLISHED: 11:47, Sun, Apr 28, 2019 | UPDATED: 13:11, Sun, Apr 28, 2019

In a major blow to Theresa May's faltering party, the Tories are now down to 13 percent - 15 points behind the Brexit Party. Labour is currently on 22 percent while Remainers Change UK are tied with the Green Party on 10 points. The Lib Dems have seven percent while Ukip is on five percent.
...
The pollster asked 5,412 people of their European Parliament Voting Intention.

Research was carried out between April 23 and April 26.
...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1119983/Brexit-news-nigel-Farage-Brexit-party-Yougov-polls

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On 5/3/2019 at 7:49 AM, bernorange said:

Even if you count all Tory voters as Leavers, that's only 43% for Brexit. It isn't surprising that people who actually want Brexit are migrating to Farage over the wishy washy Tories. The Remain combo of parties has a significant majority. 

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Just now, Biff Tannen said:

What is the rationale for the Brexiteers?  Is it similar to the trumpkins?

It's not DISsimilar.  Rising tide of nationalism, lashing out at everything and everyone, healthy element of xenophobia/blame "the other" for all of our ills, that sort of thing.  It's a global temper tantrum.  Not that folks have no reason to be upset, but raging screaming fits and breaking shit doesn't tend to solve much of anything, and when it's all done, what you've got to show for it is a bunch of broken stuff and shitstained pants.

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I don't know what % of Labor or Conservative party voters favor remain vs. leave, but there are two parties where the issue is paramount.  Brexit is running ~30% for leaving, Change UK is ~10% for remain.  It would appear on the surface that this is an indication of passion being on the side of leaving.  I guess we'll know better on May 23rd how that translates to popularity.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

It's not DISsimilar.  Rising tide of nationalism, lashing out at everything and everyone, healthy element of xenophobia/blame "the other" for all of our ills, that sort of thing.  ...

That describes UKIP, but not Farage's Brexit party.  If you get the time, watch a bit of the video I just posted of Farage's speech.  Try to square it with your recent comments.

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5 minutes ago, bernorange said:

That describes UKIP, but not Farage's Brexit party.  If you get the time, watch a bit of the video I just posted of Farage's speech.  Try to square it with your recent comments.

Put lipstick on a pig....it's still a pig.  Come on, man.  What's the motivation behind the support for Brexit?  It hasn't changed. And Farage sure as shit hasn't changed.  He may be better at using more diplomatic language, but no matter how much lipstick you slather on it, we all know what's underneath.  Oink.

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9 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I don't know what % of Labor or Conservative party voters favor remain vs. leave, but there are two parties where the issue is paramount.  Brexit is running ~30% for leaving, Change UK is ~10% for remain.  It would appear on the surface that this is an indication of passion being on the side of leaving.  I guess we'll know better on May 23rd how that translates to popularity.

And you are probably right -- I suspect that on the "passion-meter," those who want to leave REALLY FUCKING WANT TO LEAVE.  But you are also right as to the ultimate question -- popularity.  A less-than-enthusiastic "Remain" vote perfectly cancels out a hyper-enthusiastic "LEAVE!" vote.  And vice-versa.  One side of the conversation surely elicits more passion, which DOES translate to some extent to turnout, but ultimately, it's a numbers game.  And the numbers appear to reflect that "leave" had majority support for literally a few days/weeks....which happened to coincide with the date of the referendum.

I personally think it's quite foolish to make such a huge, future-determining decision when the people are that closely split on anything, but UK gonna do what it's gonna do.

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31 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

... And Farage sure as shit hasn't changed.  ...

I take it you haven't really listened to Farage speak while he was an MEP.  Do you know why he left UKIP?

https://www.nfarage.com/with-a-heavy-heart-i-am-leaving-ukip-it-is-not-the-brexit-party-our-nation-so-badly-needs/

27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

... And the numbers appear to reflect that "leave" had majority support for literally a few days/weeks....

Which numbers do you base this assertion upon? 

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9 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I take it you haven't really listened to Farage speak while he was an MEP.  Do you know why he left UKIP?

https://www.nfarage.com/with-a-heavy-heart-i-am-leaving-ukip-it-is-not-the-brexit-party-our-nation-so-badly-needs/

Which numbers do you base this assertion upon? 

Here's one I grabbed:

5c8f9f62401d587ce3520197-960-313.png

And another for the year of the referendum:

Final-poll.jpg

We see two things pretty clearly -- it has been back and forth, with "remain" ahead the majority of the time.  AND, we see that once confronted with REALITY, we finally see a REAL gap -- and it's in favor of remaining.

That's the way human reasoning works.  "I'm pissed, and I want to move out!"  Sounds great.  Then you crunch the numbers, and realize that your solo income will allow you to live in a mobile home on unincorporated property in Methlahoma.  Confronted with reality, "remain" looks MUCH more attractive than the hypothetical "move out!" ever did.

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A teenage Tory blasted her party over Brexit live on television last night and admitted she would  be voting for Nigel Farage's new party at the European elections, saying the Conservatives 'let us down'.

Emily Hewertson, 19, was applauded by the BBC Question Time audience in her home town of Northampton after saying that 'the only things that should be left in Europe are Liverpool and Tottenham'.

With Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage on the panel she ripped into her party over its failure to get Britain out of the EU in March.

The teenager, from Northampton, was responding to the ex-Tory MP Anna Soubry, now of Change UK, who wants a second referendum.
...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7014061/Question-Time-audience-cheers-Tory-19-says-plans-vote-Farages-Brexit-Party.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490

lulz.  Click the link to see why she has a couple of compelling arguments.

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On 5/6/2019 at 12:07 PM, Brisketexan said:

Here's one I grabbed:

5c8f9f62401d587ce3520197-960-313.png

And another for the year of the referendum:

Final-poll.jpg

We see two things pretty clearly -- it has been back and forth, with "remain" ahead the majority of the time.  AND, we see that once confronted with REALITY, we finally see a REAL gap -- and it's in favor of remaining.

That's the way human reasoning works.  "I'm pissed, and I want to move out!"  Sounds great.  Then you crunch the numbers, and realize that your solo income will allow you to live in a mobile home on unincorporated property in Methlahoma.  Confronted with reality, "remain" looks MUCH more attractive than the hypothetical "move out!" ever did.

Cheaper to keep her.

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8 minutes ago, bernorange said:

She does seem to have a couple of compelling arguments, and I would very much like to see more.

That said....what I don't understand is the logic of their continued argument that, now that there are actual concrete options (as opposed to theoretical ones) on the table, a second referendum on those options is "undemocratic."  How is having 1) another vote on 2) specific subject matter "undemocratic?"  Answer: it's not.  They just realize that their vote for the fantasy of "the world's best sandwich!" will not survive a vote on the actual sandwich choices on the plates in front of the voters -- they are just variations of shit sandwiches that the majority of voters don't want to eat.

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I think (and I could be wrong on this) that the sentiment is that May stepped into this Brexit negotiation, while not exactly with bad faith, with lukewarm/half hearted intent.  That if someone like Farage had been in charge of negotiating Brexit with Brussels from the start, someone who was 100% committed to Brexit deal or no deal, that Brussels would have taken them more seriously.

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1 minute ago, bernorange said:

I think (and I could be wrong on this) that the sentiment is that May stepped into this Brexit negotiation, while not exactly with bad faith, with lukewarm/half hearted intent.  That if someone like Farage had been in charge of negotiating Brexit with Brussels from the start, someone who was 100% committed to Brexit deal or no deal, that Brussels would have taken them more seriously.

I can understand that take.  It's still fantasy-based (as in, "okay, describe what THAT deal would look like, and how you think the opposing parties ever would have accepted it"), but at least it's a look inside their minds.

I still think that the "submarine made of cheese" analogy is pretty spot-on.  May could have negotiated something marginally better, or even a lot worse.  But the deal she negotiated is well within the zone of what should have been reasonably expected.  The idea that someone else could have negotiated some other super-awesome best-ever Brexit deal is just the next step in the fantasy that underlies the Brexit movement.

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I think you might not totally grok the perspective of "leave" folks.  From what I've been reading, a lot of them would have been perfectly happy with a no deal divorce as long as it happened when it was supposed to.  They feel betrayed because May lacked a spine to draw a hard line in the sand.

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58 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I think you might not totally grok the perspective of "leave" folks.  From what I've been reading, a lot of them would have been perfectly happy with a no deal divorce as long as it happened when it was supposed to.  They feel betrayed because May lacked a spine to draw a hard line in the sand.

Oh, I get that.  Of course, a "no deal divorce" was NOT what was pitched to the voters in the referendum.  What was sold was that the UK would totally negotiate a sweet deal, and would be better off than it ever has been.  Believe me, I get the fantasy-based nihilism of the hardcore "leave" crowd.  They feel betrayed because they can't co-opt a majority into their insanity.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Oh, I get that.  Of course, a "no deal divorce" was NOT what was pitched to the voters in the referendum.  What was sold was that the UK would totally negotiate a sweet deal, and would be better off than it ever has been.  Believe me, I get the fantasy-based nihilism of the hardcore "leave" crowd.  They feel betrayed because they can't co-opt a majority into their insanity.

kgh4ilcb8lhy.jpg

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On 5/6/2019 at 11:55 AM, Brisketexan said:

It's not DISsimilar.  Rising tide of nationalism, lashing out at everything and everyone, healthy element of xenophobia/blame "the other" for all of our ills, that sort of thing.  It's a global temper tantrum.  Not that folks have no reason to be upset, but raging screaming fits and breaking shit doesn't tend to solve much of anything, and when it's all done, what you've got to show for it is a bunch of broken stuff and shitstained pants.

There are a lot of parallels including an urban rural divide. We think of Europe and the UK as being more hoity toity and cosmopolitan than us, but the UK, in particular, has some run down small towns that make West Virginia seem like a land of opportunity and those towns are filled with people that make West Virginians seem upper crust.

I read an article a while back about a reporter that spent some time in some of those towns. The general sentiment wasn't xenophobic as much as spiteful with the understanding that Brexit would harm the UK as  whole.  Along the lines of, "It always sucks here. Can't get much worse. Nobody does shit for us anyway.  Let's take London down to our level.".

Those voters combined with actual xenophobes are enough to get your 40% base. Seems like 40% is the going number everywhere. 

As far as nationalism goes, Europe was better in the 3 decades where they had a shortage of men. Men always lead themselves down the same path where they create that shortage again through war.   You'd think people would want to get out of the cycle. But nope. Global war is coming. 

 

Edited by FondrenRoad
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