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Brexit shenanigans


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It's interesting to see the fates of the various right-wing parties around Europe.

The right is back on the rise in Germany, Belgium, and France. Macron's snap election is an attempt to force their hand in France before they're ready.

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the Tories are heading for a flogging so severe they may not even be His Majesty's Opposition.

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2 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

It's interesting to see the fates of the various right-wing parties around Europe.

The right is back on the rise in Germany, Belgium, and France. Macron's snap election is an attempt to force their hand in France before they're ready.

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the Tories are heading for a flogging so severe they may not even be His Majesty's Opposition.

Well, the UK has completed the full "put the extreme right in charge...and it turns out they shoot our collective dick clean off" exercise.  Other European countries are still in the throes of "this time it will be different" thinking and....

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Hard right populism/fascism is utterly dumb.  It's just as dumb as beret wearing "power to the proletariat, the people should own the means of production!  Collectivize everything!" leftism.  

The most peaceful, prosperous countries, over and over and over and over, are those that occupy the middle 50% of the political spectrum.  There are elements of EVERY country that are unsatisfying, frustrating, etc.  The smart answer is NEVER "burn it all down, try the extreme," but here we are.

 

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On 6/14/2024 at 8:45 AM, elfenix said:

Mapped:

That one little grey district in north central london is Islington North.  Home of Jeremy Corbyn.  Expelled from Labour. Polling the plurality at 40%

These predictions are very strongly premised on the presumption that people who tell pollsters that they're going to vote Reform are actually going to do so on polling day.  I'm very skeptical.

The same pressures that entrench the two-party system in the United States are present in the UK--maybe stronger.  And in the same way I don't think for a minute that RFK Jr. is getting 12% of the vote, I don't think Reform is going to get anywhere near 20%.

You already see the two-party machinery swinging into action this weekend, with the Mirror openly calling Farange a "Putin stooge."  I mean, they're right; he is.  But that's the Conservative Party talking and working to get its voters back in line.  And ultimately, I think they'll be largely successful.

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14 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

It's interesting to see the fates of the various right-wing parties around Europe.

The right is back on the rise in Germany, Belgium, and France. Macron's snap election is an attempt to force their hand in France before they're ready.

Meanwhile, across the Channel, the Tories are heading for a flogging so severe they may not even be His Majesty's Opposition.


Everything is a reaction to enshittification.  "The current guys are shitty!  Maybe the alternative won't be so shitty!"

Meanwhile, those who say things are shitty are living better than 99% of the planet ever has.

Having said that, Fareed Zakaria pointed out something interesting a few days ago.  In 2008, the United States and the euro-zone economies were roughly the same size. Today, the American economy is nearly twice the size of the euro zone. Average European income is now 27% lower than in the United States, and average wages are 37% lower. When the British left the European Union, they fantasized about forging a close relationship with the United States, almost becoming the 51st state. Were that to happen, Britons would find themselves in the 51st poorest state in the union, with a per capita gross domestic product below that of Mississippi.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, the UK has completed the full "put the extreme right in charge...and it turns out they shoot our collective dick clean off" exercise.  Other European countries are still in the throes of "this time it will be different" thinking and....

The most peaceful, prosperous countries, over and over and over and over, are those that occupy the middle 50% of the political spectrum.  There are elements of EVERY country that are unsatisfying, frustrating, etc.  The smart answer is NEVER "burn it all down, try the extreme," but here we are.

 

Well,

My uninformed opinion is that past colonialism, immigration, combined with virulent thinly veiled racism drives the gains on the right.  French citizens reported (hundreds of?) thousands of Jews that French police arrested and loaded into trains east.  They don't like to talk about that, but it's true.   

In my personal experience, much of mainland Europe is AT LEAST as racist as Alabama/Mississippi and much more blatant about it.  I'm not saying everyone, but holy shit it's not uncommon.

I say that as a white boy who grew up in the south in the 70's.  I used to think it might be just because I'm an asshole, but it's strange that I only seem to have problems when traveling with my wife (who is also from the south, isn't an asshole, but IS of Asian descent).  Some of the shit that happens is mind blowing.   One of the funnier ones was a concierge who, with a smirk, would only recommend Chinese restaurants and didn't know of any other food options in the city of Frankfurt.   

 

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Posted (edited)

After the Tories get destroyed next week they’ll welcome Farange and his band into the party, Rishi will get ousted/ bail to California with a year, and within 2 years Farange will up as the head of the Tories.  

Edited by Jatrain
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1 minute ago, Jatrain said:

After the Tories get destroyed next week they’ll welcome Farange and his band into the party, Rishi will get ousted/ bail to California with a year, and within 2 years Farange will up as the head of the Tories.  

Not an unrealistic scenario.  It's insane, stupid, and short-sighted.  So, yeah....I bet we're at a better than 50% chance of it happening, because we are in the "insane, stupid, and short-sighted" timeline.

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Let’s see how Nigel and Reform do…

Final Yougov pre-election day is 431 Labour (39%), 102 Tory (22%), 72 LibDem (12%), 2 Green (7%), 3 Reform UK (15%). But 2 of those 3 Reform seats are projected to be very close 

Something like 16 Cabinet ministers are projected to lose their seats - including possibly Rishi himself 

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Final Yougov pre-election day is 431 Labour (39%), 102 Tory (22%), 72 LibDem (12%), 2 Green (7%), 3 Reform UK (15%). But 2 of those 3 Reform seats are projected to be very close 

Something like 16 Cabinet ministers are projected to lose their seats - including possibly Rishi himself 

The real race is for second. The LibDems have a puncher’s chance of becoming the Opposition.

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Looks like Reform has taken an absolute fatal share out of the Tory vote.  Hard to imagine the Conservative Party stays unified in the face of this and doesn’t descend into recriminations and civil war.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Looks like Reform has taken an absolute fatal share out of the Tory vote.  Hard to imagine the Conservative Party stays unified in the face of this and doesn’t descend into recriminations and civil war.

image.png.df131fe1bc7aa6e7e90067ce245c9b29.png

Time for the Liberal Democrats to make their long awaited comeback?

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and SNP, it looks like the left wing will control nearly 75% of Parliament. But I don’t follow UK politics at all, so have no clue how well those parties work together. 

That said, anyone know a good realtor in England?

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11 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and SNP, it looks like the left wing will control nearly 75% of Parliament. But I don’t follow UK politics at all, so have no clue how well those parties work together. 

That said, anyone know a good realtor in England?

I thought SNP made Tories look like Rachel Maddow. Is that wrong?

9 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

image.thumb.jpeg.47a885f1514cf4070cc456e626c84e1b.jpeg
 

call Rishi Sunak 444-4444

NIL payday incoming for Quinn Ewers

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I thought SNP made Tories look like Rachel Maddow. Is that wrong?

Could be. Wiki says they’re left wing, but they’re also Scottish nationalists. So fuck if I know. Like I said: I don’t follow UK politics at all. For all I know, the Brits still decide elections by pulling a magic sword out of a stone.

Edited by BrickHorn
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Could be. Wiki says they’re left wing, but they’re also Scottish nationalists. So fuck if I know. Like I said: I don’t follow UK politics at all. For all I know, the Brits still decide elections by pulling a magic sword out of a stone.

SNP are definitely lefties.
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Yes but like real ones not limp wristed affluent American progressives who don’t mind losing. SNP locals will bust your lip for talking shit. 

Yep. They’re entertaining as hell. They’re also in a multi-year meltdown.
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On 6/29/2024 at 5:36 PM, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

It'll be fun watching the returns in my USA jacket from a pub on the 4th of July.  

Watching election returns in a foreign country has always been at the top of my vacation wishlist. 

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20 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Watching election returns in a foreign country has always been at the top of my vacation wishlist. 

I lived in France when LePen made a run in the first half of the elections and then everybody united to squush him like a bug in the second half. Big-ass May Day parade, went there with my local rugby club. People were packed in tighter than a Mojo Nixon song. Finally it loosened up and we went on a group stroll for a couple of miles, my main memory was shuffling along behind a pod of tall Uruguayan girls who were doin some kind of shimmy-dance. Then me and a pal went to the wrong place to catch the bus home, turned into a Sprint Through Paris jumping people tying shoelaces and baby carriages and shit.

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It’s going to be interesting in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein may be the largest NI party in Westminster for the first time, as it looks like the DUP is taking a beating alongside the Tories.

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Conservatives have lost 131 seats with approximately half of the results yet to be determined.  Yikes, man it would be nice to see a repeat in a few months here in the states.  

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Conservatives have lost 131 seats with approximately half of the results yet to be determined.  Yikes, man it would be nice to see a repeat in a few months here in the states.  

Man, after what feels like 50 years of GOP oppression, I wish Texas voters would take a hint.

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