Brexit shenanigans

[hayden_horn 11360]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

According to this story, they'll be announcing results of the vote at 21:00 GMT which, if I'm doing the time conversion correctly, means we'll know at 3:00 pm CST.

yep, it's a six hour time difference right now.

Edited December 12, 2018 by hayden_horn

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Right after the closing bell of the NYSE

[hayden_horn 11360]

dailymail claims more than 180 MPs support may. she only needs 159.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6486671/Theresa-face-Tory-no-confidence-vote-TONIGHT.html

Quote

More than 180 MPs have publicly declared that they will back her so far, putting her seemingly on course to survive - although there is no guarantee they are telling the truth. One senior MP privately admitted their colleagues are the 'most duplicitous electorate in the history of humankind'.

it's a secret ballot, so they could lie with impunity.

[kevwun 15595]

I think she is expected to win, but that she will also receive enough no votes to doom her.

[cactusflinthead 27593]

200-117. She stays

[hayden_horn 11360]

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

200-117. She stays

that's not even close. tories are a disaster.

[Brisketexan 104464]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

that's not even close. tories are a disaster.

So...the earlier tweet opined that 130 against would be a disaster, 100 against would be "status quo" -- and they managed to split the difference between disaster and status quo.  Seems that we're right where we were before -- just generally shitty.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So...the earlier tweet opined that 130 against would be a disaster, 100 against would be "status quo" -- and they managed to split the difference between disaster and status quo.  Seems that we're right where we were before -- just generally shitty.

Only 37% of the Conservative Party is the lunatic fringe?  Hell--that's doing pretty well these days.

[Brisketexan 104464]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Only 37% of the Conservative Party is the lunatic fringe?  Hell--that's doing pretty well these days.

Trump's at 40%, per Gallup.

The limeys are 3% better/smarter than us.

To be honest, I'd still have bet that it would be higher for them.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Trump's at 40%, per Gallup.

The limeys are 3% better/smarter than us.

To be honest, I'd still have bet that it would be higher for them.

What is Trump's approval within the GOP?  85%?  90%?

The Conservative Party is in muuuuuuch better shape than the GOP.

[Brisketexan 104464]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

What is Trump's approval within the GOP?  85%?  90%?

The Conservative Party is in muuuuuuch better shape than the GOP.

Excellent observation -- I was applying my math to the wrong grouping.

Jesus....we're really a LOT worse off than the limeys.  And they're turbofucked.

[bad_teammate 13125]

 

[bolverk 29360]

This article asserts that a revote on Brexit appears to be more likely.

A second Brexit vote was once a pipe dream. Now some wonder if it’s the only way out of the chaos.

LONDON —  Not long ago, the idea of staging a second Brexit referendum was regarded as little more than a fringe dream among a handful of “remoaners” who had voted to remain in the European Union. They were cheered on by unpopular figures from yesteryear, such former prime minister Tony Blair.

But the once barely imaginable is now becoming remotely possible.

The British may be headed toward one of history’s greatest do-overs — another vote to ask do they really, really want to leave the European Union knowing what they know now about how breaking up is hard to do?

For crazy and chaotic Brexit, nothing would be more crazy and chaotic than another vote.

Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly ruled out a second referendum, arguing that the people already voted, in June 2016, when Brexit won by 52 percent to 48 percent. Now, she says, the job is to deliver on that result.

Her Cabinet is also against a second plebiscite, and the leader of the opposition Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, isn’t a big fan, either.

But after two years of bickering, confusion and uncivil political war over what Brexit should look like, more and more people in Britain are wondering whether a second, so-called “People’s Vote” might be the only thing to break the impasse. 

That once-unthinkable scenario is given an indirect boost by May herself. It has become clear that the version approved by the European Union and May’s negotiators has little chance of passing Parliament. 

“I didn’t think it very likely, but now I’m beginning to wonder if it’s the only exit out of a burning building,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.

A year ago, London bookmaker William Hill was offering 12-1 odds for a second referendum. Today, it’s 1-1.

Spoiler

 

Adding to the looming chaos of Brexit, it is completely unclear which way a new vote would go.

For a long while after the 2016 referendum, public opinion on Brexit didn’t change much.

But as the trade-offs of Brexit have become more apparent, there’s been a slight shift. Many polls show that, if the choice today were between leaving or remaining, a small majority of Britons would vote to stay in the European Union.

But those feelings have not been tested by a hard-fought, second campaign.

Some of May’s allies see a potential second referendum as a chance to secure a mandate for her Brexit deal, to give it the endorsement from the public that Parliament appears unlikely to grant.

Nick Timothy, a former top aide to May, wrote in the Daily Telegraph this past week that with her deal “dead as a dodo” in Parliament, the only viable options are a super “soft Brexit,” where Britain pursues for a trade deal with the European Union like the one Norway has (which isn’t that popular, to be honest) or a second referendum.

Is May in such a jam that she might just go back to the public? 

She is famously stubborn, but she is also pragmatic and she has tried mightily to stay relevant — and employed. She knows her current deal is very unpopular. If it loses in the House of Commons, some of her supporters anticipate that she might pivot and support a second people’s vote.

“It would not surprise me at all if the prime minister were to say, my deal has been defeated, you know what, I still think it’s the right deal for the country and I’m going to put it to the country in a referendum and then off we go,” Hilary Benn, a Labour lawmaker and chair of the Brexit select committee, told the BBC. 

The organized push for a second referendum has been coming from a patchwork coalition — europhiles, economists, a couple of peers in the House of Lords, some journalists who believe the first vote was rigged, and starry-eyed dreamers — who think leaving one of the world’s largest and richest trading blocs is a dumb idea.

The Labour Party’s activists love the idea of a do-over. At the party’s convention in September, delegates voted overwhelmingly to support a second referendum, despite the lack of enthusiasm from most of the party leadership.

In October, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in London to demand a people’s vote on any Brexit deal. Organizers called it the second largest protest here in the 21st century, after the massive demonstration against the Iraq War in 2003.

Pro-Europeans were thrilled last month when the Conservative lawmaker and remainer Jo Johnson — the younger brother of Brexiteer Boris Johnson — quit May’s cabinet and threw his weight behind a people’s vote.

“Given that the reality of Brexit has turned out to be so far from what was once promised, the democratic thing to do is to give the public the final say,” Jo Johnson wrote in his resignation letter.

The movement got a further boost this past week when the European Court of Justice ruled that Britain could unilaterally reverse itself and stay in the European Union if it chose to.

The path to a second referendum wouldn’t be easy, though.

There isn’t a majority in Parliament right now calling for a do-over. One analysis calculated that only 133 lawmakers — out of 650 — have publicly backed a second referendum.

Paul Butters, a spokesman for the pro-referendum activist group Best for Britain, said he’s seeing an uptick in members of Parliament mulling over the idea. “MPs we haven’t lobbied are coming up, saying, ‘my constituents are making the case to me’ — you’re starting to see a lot of that,” he said.

Even if enough lawmakers were to support a second referendum, implementation would take time. The Constitution Unit research group at University College London estimates that it could take about five months to pull it off. 

Britain doesn’t have five months. It’s set to leave the European Union in three. So it would need to negotiate an extension of the Brexit deadline with Brussels.

There is also the fraught issue over what would be on the ballot. Would it be a binary choice — a yes or a no — like most referendums? And if so, what would those choices be? May’s Brexit deal versus a no-deal Brexit? Or May’s deal versus remain in the European Union? Those questions would produce radically different results. 

Perhaps there could be multiple options? Preferential voting?

All of this would be highly contentious.

Boris Johnson, who resigned as May’s foreign secretary because of his frustration with her approach to Brexit, acknowledged that there are “growing numbers” of lawmakers who want a second vote, but argued the option should be rejected.

“Leaving aside the likely outcome of such a second poll (and I see no reason why Leave should not win again), it would be infamous and pathetic of MPs to go back to the people before the political class had even succeeded in delivering on the first referendum result,” he wrote in the Daily Telegraph. 

“It would so shake trust in politicians that the Government would suffer massively, and deservedly, in the next general election,” Johnson said.

Many opponents of a second referendum say it would not only be divisive, but undemocratic — that the establishment can’t hold votes until it gets the answers that it wants.

Others say that a referendum is inherently democratic.

“May's suggestion that a #PeoplesVote would ‘overturn the will of the British people’ makes literally no sense,” tweeted J.K. Rowling, the Harry Potter creator and an arch-remainer. “Who does she think would be voting? The Chinese?” 

Caroline Lucas, a Green Party lawmaker, told The Washington Post: “I think it’s right that people have the opportunity to have a first say on the actual facts of the deal. Two years ago, people didn’t have any information, really, about what kind of Brexit we would be talking about, and now we know that every single version of Brexit that is being offered are versions that will make the whole country poorer.”

Earlier this month, crowds gathered outside of the wrought iron gates of Westminster, to find out whether the prime minister had survived the no confidence vote staged against her leadership.

“I’m very conflicted,” said Caroline Cheales, 57, a project manager who was waving an E.U. flag outside of Parliament on Wednesday. On the one hand, she said, “I’d love it if it was rerun and we ended up remaining, because I think this is a catastrophic change of direction.” On the other hand, she fretted it could sow even greater division. “Just rerunning it isn’t necessarily going to be the answer.”

 

 

[Gengs1 2583]

17 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

 

Man the burn center about to be exhausted.

they pM was like fuck I care if you get your referendum 

[bad_teammate 13125]

"BUT WON'T YOU BE SAD IF YOU LET US SHIT ALL OVER OURSELVES AND EAT OUR OWN POOP!?!?" - Great Britain, to Europe

[Thetexashammer 1062]

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2018/12/21/european-govts-shred-no-deal-scaremongering-customs-travel-disruption/

Quote

The governments of France, Belgium, and the Netherlands have already made preparations for Britain leaving the EU without a deal, with the European Commission relenting on their hard line by making concessions on freight, flights, and some financial services.

French authorities have confirmed plans to minimise disruption for the cross-border transport of goods, including a Fastpass system for lorries travelling from Calais to the United Kingdom where hauliers can complete customs paperwork online before reaching the port, and licence plate reading cameras to help limit delays, according to The Times.

The Belgian and Dutch governments have also announced that their ports are ready for Britain to leave the European Union without a deal, with the Netherlands having hired an additional 1,000 staff in preparation to run customs checks on 10,500 “foreign” ship cargoes going to or from British ports.

..........

The BBC reports this includes British flights overflying or landing in the EU for 12 months until other arrangements are made; certain financial services regulations being deemed equivalent for one to two years; and road hauliers not needing permits for up to nine months.

The EU’s executive arm has also encouraged member-states to take a “generous” approach to the rights of British expats so long as they are reciprocated.

In that spirit, France’s Europe minister Nathalie Loiseau said that her country will guarantee the residency, employment, and welfare rights of the 160,000 British expats if similar reciprocal arrangements are made for French citizens living in the United Kingdom in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Basically the Leave part of Brexit is going to turn out pretty uneventful. At the time of the vote, Remainers were predicting Owen Wilson in Armageddon ("Worst environment imaginable, all you had to say, worst environment imaginable."). Literally, they predicted permanent economic depression, war, famine, pestilence, death of the first born children and the Thames would turn red and maybe some frogs and locusts.

But I suspect it's gonna be like the computers all going down in 2000, no bang all whimper. It's in neither side's interest to blow shit up.

 

[David Dennison 18604]

So they aren't really leaving.

 

[bolverk 29360]

30 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2018/12/21/european-govts-shred-no-deal-scaremongering-customs-travel-disruption/

Basically the Leave part of Brexit is going to turn out pretty uneventful. At the time of the vote, Remainers were predicting Owen Wilson in Armageddon ("Worst environment imaginable, all you had to say, worst environment imaginable."). Literally, they predicted permanent economic depression, war, famine, pestilence, death of the first born children and the Thames would turn red and maybe some frogs and locusts.

But I suspect it's gonna be like the computers all going down in 2000, no bang all whimper. It's in neither side's interest to blow shit up.

 

Hey, boxofhammers, just because Britain's closest continental neighbors and the EU are taking regulatory steps to try to ease the transition doesn't mean that it still won't be painful. In fact, it suggests the opposite in that they're trying to be cautious as they all see clearly that Brexit presents a danger to theirs and the UK's economy. And we still don't know if they're going to leave with a Brexit deal to soften the blow.

I might suggest you stop reading Breitbart; it's making you dumber.

[GopherRock 1765]

A sudden display of concertina wire on the Irish frontier and the new border searches at the Dover ferry landing will have a lot more impact than Y2K could ever dream of having. 

[David Dennison 18604]

1 minute ago, GopherRock said:

A sudden display of concertina wire on the Irish frontier and the new border searches at the Dover ferry landing will have a lot more impact than Y2K could ever dream of having. 

This is our concern, Dude.

[retread 2951]

 

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

Yeah, she's toast.  There will be a revote.  It won't pass...

Pretty much same as it ever was...sorry Nigel.  

[Brisketexan 104464]

18 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yeah, she's toast.  There will be a revote.  It won't pass...

Pretty much same as it ever was...sorry Nigel.  

Nigel's not worried....his Brexit vote goes to 11....

[Biff Tannen 45477]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yeah, she's toast.  There will be a revote.  It won't pass...

Pretty much same as it ever was...sorry Nigel.  

This is really best case scenario right?  Russians successfully convinced stupid British voters to vote for insanity and Britain is going to actually do the right thing and re-vote to actually make the right decision?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Still a successful operation even with a re-vote. Look at how much chaos, dysfunction, and wasted time Brexit sucked out of Parliament.  

Winning.

[retread 2951]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

Quote

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

52 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is really best case scenario right?  Russians successfully convinced stupid British voters to vote for insanity and Britain is going to actually do the right thing and re-vote to actually make the right decision?

 

49 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Still a successful operation even with a re-vote. Look at how much chaos, dysfunction, and wasted time Brexit sucked out of Parliament.  

Winning.

Yep.  And it’s only a win for Russia in the short term. In the long term all this will leave them motherfucked.  When Putin dies it’s gonna be pure chaos.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

I understand the notion that you shouldn’t have another referendum just because people may have changed their mind.  If you go down that path, why not hold weekly referendums.   But don’t polls show that No to Brexit as much higher than yes now?   Perhaps this calls for a new referendum.

Besides I think the original vote was flawed.  A referendum that create drastic change shouldn’t only take a simple majority to pass.   It’s not about deciding between a new choice of A or B but rather breaking a longstanding decision.  The threshold should be more like 60 or 67%.   

[GopherRock 1765]

Timeline for today's voting. All times CST and are subject to change: 

12:20PM: May's final speech

1:00 PM: Voting on amendments 

2:00 PM: Vote on the whole Brexit bill

A bunch of places will have live streaming from the floor of the Commons. 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand the notion that you shouldn’t have another referendum just because people may have changed their mind.  If you go down that path, why not hold weekly referendums.   But don’t polls show that No to Brexit as much higher than yes now?   Perhaps this calls for a new referendum.

Besides I think the original vote was flawed.  A referendum that create drastic change shouldn’t only take a simple majority to pass.   It’s not about deciding between a new choice of A or B but rather breaking a longstanding decision.  The threshold should be more like 60 or 67%.   

Yes, in a normal world under normal circumstances, but to your point, there is evidence that this vote was influenced by outsiders with nefarious motives.  The sheep were tricked into doing something quite possibly against their interests and a lot of them have woken up to that fact.  Maybe vote on having a new vote?

[Brisketexan 104464]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yes, in a normal world under normal circumstances, but to your point, there is evidence that this vote was influenced by outsiders with nefarious motives.  The sheep were tricked into doing something quite possibly against their interests and a lot of them have woken up to that fact.  Maybe vote on having a new vote?

I don't think it's contradictory at all to have a second vote.  The first vote was for the vague concept.  The second vote would be on the actual deal.

This is how most deals are made.  Parties enter into a Letter of Intent.  This expresses there intent to do the deal (say, to buy Spacely Sprockets, Inc.).  Buyer does his due diligence.  They negotiate a price, all material terms, etc.  Buyer's CEO then takes the deal back to his board...who may accept or reject the purchase contract (or may instruct him to negotiate certain different terms).  The point is, there is an initial action on the concept -- the parties are instructed to go see if they can work out a deal, because Buyer wants to buy Spacely Sprockets.  And then there's a SECOND action on the ACTUAL, real-deal transaction -- is it a good deal or not.  I mean, I WANT to buy Spacely Sprockets.  It makes sense, fits into our business, will give us access to new markets, etc.  BUT, if the ultimate sale price is eleventy billion dollars, I don't want to do THAT deal.  So, even though I want to buy Spacely, I turn down the specific deal that's on offer.

That really is the way this should work as well.  A slim majority in a single vote said "we like the concept of Brexit -- go negotiate a deal!"  May did so.  The terms are shitty.  That deal, with those specific terms, is likely to be rejected by Parliament.  If put to a vote of the people, it seems that it would fail there, too.  The people liked the idea of buying Spacely Sprockets.  But now that the Purchase Agreement is in front of them, it looks to be a shitty deal.  That's the way shit goes.

[Incredulity 11532]

Actually, its well known you have to pass legislation to know whats in it.

 

Speaker out front shoulda toldya.

[GSU&UT 1798]

I love how their MP's do not mince words when they call out BS like this.

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Damn, go ahead Mr. Lammy.

[GopherRock 1765]

Bercow just ordered the lobby cleared for the main question. Results will come around 1:40 PM.

[GopherRock 1765]

Deal defeated 202-432.

May now daring Corbyn to move a motion of no confidence in the Government. 

[Biff Tannen 45477]

When do they decide if they are going to have a new referendum?

[retread 2951]

Biggest parliamentary defeat in modern British history - CNN

[Js1 85056]

5 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Deal defeated 202-432.

May now daring Corbyn to move a motion of no confidence in the Government. 

Jesus.  She got ROCKED on that vote.

[GopherRock 1765]

...and Corbyn has moved the motion of no confidence. 

[relapse98 634]

So, they are going to be exiting from brexiting?

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19073]

Corbyn is so much worse than May, and it isn't even close.

Truth is, the EU has some significant issues. There needs to be reforms, but no one gives a rat's ass in Brussels.

[hayden_horn 11360]

just want to note that the UK, a country of 66M people, have 650 MPs in the commons, and 785 in the lords. 

meanwhile, the united states, a country of more than 325M people, have 435 representatives in the house, and 100 senators.

carry on.

[yaqdum 182]

2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Corbyn is so much worse than May, and it isn't even close.

Truth is, the EU has some significant issues. There needs to be reforms, but no one gives a rat's ass in Brussels.

are you suggesting brussels need some new sprouts?

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

just want to note that the UK, a country of 66M people, have 650 MPs in the commons, and 785 in the lords. 

meanwhile, the united states, a country of more than 325M people, have 435 representatives in the house, and 100 senators.

carry on.

But we have a Trump.

Checkmate limey fucks.

[yaqdum 182]

i saw elsewhere that the largest majority ever had been 166, and there was concern this majority might be as much as 200.  it was 230.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

22 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Corbyn is so much worse than May, and it isn't even close.

God, he is.  But the Government just lost a vote on a critical national issue by 230 votes.  Even if the Government survived a no-confidence motion, I don't know how May can remain in office.

[Brisketexan 104464]

25 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Corbyn is so much worse than May, and it isn't even close.

Truth is, the EU has some significant issues. There needs to be reforms, but no one gives a rat's ass in Brussels.

Red Jeremy v. May is SIMILAR to our Trump v. Hillary conundrum (our degree of shittiness was, sadly, worse).  But if you're in a position of "yeah, May sucks.....so let's go with Corbyn..."...well, that sucks.

And yes, the EU has issues.  Picking up your ball and going home, and shooting your own dick off in the process, is a TERRIBLE solution to those issues.

If anyone was playing their gotdamn cards right, they would use this process and impulse among the voters of one of the major nation parties to the EU to parlay into some meaningful changes to the EU.  But nobody is looking farther than 1/4 inch in front of their own nose.  Bunch of goddamned children having tantrums.  I'd lecture them, but....we're already awkwardly seated in one of the tiny chairs at the kid's table.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

How much longer until Corbyn and May go away forever? It seems like these two have been at the top forever and they both suck.

They make me miss Tony Blair.

Edited January 15, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Ghost of LL 15348]

The Conservative and Labour Parties are going to fracture over this.  A party can't lose a vote like this by that margin and remain a party.  If Gladstone couldn't hold together the Liberal Party after the Irish Home Rule debacle (which was arguably less of a debacle), there's no way Theresa fucking May is going to be able to hold together the Tories.