2021 Houston Astros Thread

[Ojo Rojo 2041]

Bodes well for the future with a Tucker-Meyer-Siri outfield foundation.

[David Dennison 19442]

I'm assuming Carlos Correa is gone, that way I will be happy if we somehow sign him.

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

41 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I'm assuming Carlos Correa is gone, that way I will be happy if we somehow sign him.

Yeah- that bullshit offer at the beginning of the year and no circling back make that the most logical guess. 
imma going to hate seeing him enter the HOF in pinstripes. 

[rvm96 1643]

3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So, honestly, what is going on with the perception our farm system?  Just in the last few years, we've had guys like Urquidy, Garcia, Chas, Taylor Jones, Meyers, and now Siri (not to mention Straw, Toro, De La Cruz, etc.) emerge as competent to good major leaguers (obvious small sample size for a few of these) and none of them had any sort of fanfare whatsoever outside of the local bubble.  I understand that these guys aren't Tatis Jr., but they almost all have performed better than a good chunk of the top 100 list.  It seems that that prospect nerds across the country have no idea how to properly evaluate the development that goes on in our farm system.

I get hating on prospect lists but Siri was literally waived twice last year. 

[HtownHorn 15243]

22 minutes ago, rvm96 said:

I get hating on prospect lists but Siri was literally waived twice last year. 

Adolis Garcia was waived in Spring Training this year by the Rangers, passed through waivers and resigned by the Rangers. If you can make hard contact, you will find a spot somewhere in the majors now.

I do hope that Siri and Meyers can reform their approach a little to hunt better pitches.

[Scraps 13755]

[TonyTexas 10685]

39 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I do hope that Siri and Meyers can reform their approach a little to hunt better pitches.

In their careers, Meyer’s SO % isn’t that bad (18%) but Siri strikes out a lot (28%} 

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

In their careers, Meyer’s SO % isn’t that bad (18%) but Siri strikes out a lot (28%} 

Yeah Siri is t a permanent answer to anything g other than speed/4th OFer. 

[rvm96 1643]

2 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Adolis Garcia was waived in Spring Training this year by the Rangers, passed through waivers and resigned by the Rangers. If you can make hard contact, you will find a spot somewhere in the majors now.

I do hope that Siri and Meyers can reform their approach a little to hunt better pitches.

I'm not saying Siri will be a failure. I was saying that you can't blame prospect list makers for not being high on him

[TonyTexas 10685]

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

 

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

So, We are basically through with Zack Greinke right?  
we roll with LMJ, Framber, Urquidy and Garcia in that order in the playoffs and let Greinke walk in free agency?  
that’s probably a little aggressive. I imagine that Greinke pitches in the playoffs for us but damn it- I don’t look forward to that game of Russian roulette that is Greinke getting by on guts and smarts and shitty stuff against a playoff lineup. 
And I say that as a Greinke fanboy. 
I assume this means Dusty trots him out as the game 1 starter. 

[UTexasFight 9790]

I can’t decide whether to heart or ragey that post 

Edited September 15, 2021 by UTexasFight

[Limp Brisket 549]

23 hours ago, kevwun said:

Haha, Siri's gonna get plunked for that one.

Hi

[billfromlaketravis 11788]

2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

 

I think they need to decide how open the window is. If they’re going to resign Correa, they need to spend on starting pitching as well. 

[Scraps 13755]

Soft tossers need not apply

[YChang 3533]

Wait, where’s the reset button for tonight’s game?

[perfectchaos007 6766]

Run diff giveth, and run diff taketh away

[HtownHorn 15243]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think they need to decide how open the window is. If they’re going to resign Correa, they need to spend on starting pitching as well. 

Well they do have Framber, Garcia, McCullers, Urquidy, Odorizzi, Javier, Brown, and maybe Whitley for next season. They could easily get Verlander back. They need to also spend on real relievers.

[TonyTexas 10685]

A’s and Mariners lose so magic number is

 

[Gourmand 7778]

The As blew a 6-0 lead.

[tx 3 putt 78482]

Lock it in 

[Starfleet Command 441]

 

21 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

I’d like for Siri to get some fairly significant ABs these last 19 games to see if he’s the real deal. If so, it could help push Crane to step up the Correa negotiations. They could have a really cheap outfield and  pitching staff locked in for the foreseeable future. You have to spend the money somewhere. Maybe even think about trading Uncle Mike to save $16M, pick up some good prospects  and alleviate next year’s OF roster crunch. 

The only thing that will help with the Correa negotiations is if Correa is willing to handicap his total earnings potential and agree to a substantially shorter deal than what he can likely get on the market.  I think the Astros go cheap at SS hoping Pena is ready sometime next season and spend money elsewhere, maybe in the pen (as Click did last season with that big AAV Baez deal) and maybe for a TORP.

[cabowabo 4646]

10 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

 and maybe Whitley for next season. 

Edited September 15, 2021 by cabowabo

[kevwun 16333]

I'll believe Click is going to commit money to the bullpen when he actually does it.

[Starfleet Command 441]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I'll believe Click is going to commit money to the bullpen when he actually does it.

He gave Baez a $6M AAV deal.  The Astros have Pressly and a bunch of mediocrity in the pen available for next season.  They need another sub-3.5 FIP guy with Graveman leaving.  Also, like the A's the Astros also have a number of good SPs in LMJ, Garcia, Framber, and Urquidy, but they could really use a legit ace.  Those guys are so important in the playoffs where you can really leverage them. 

I just don't see them signing a good SS who would block Pena/Leon. 

[Scraps 13755]

Click this morning - 

Odorizzi - in a boot, not shut down for season at this point, will see how he progresses, initial news is very positive

Talking about resting players - plan all along was to rest players throughout year.  Constant conversation with staff and Dusty, think he has done great job at it coming off the short season last year etc. 

Favorite thing about the team - clubhouse culture they have and how the players help/push each other, very selfless

A bunch of other stupid questions by Salisbury 

Any money talk with Correa? -  Nope, CC didn't want to do it and after the season we will talk about what a WS MVP should make cause I really hope he wins that 

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

1 hour ago, Starfleet Command said:

 

The only thing that will help with the Correa negotiations is if Correa is willing to handicap his total earnings potential and agree to a substantially shorter deal than what he can likely get on the market.  I think the Astros go cheap at SS hoping Pena is ready sometime next season and spend money elsewhere, maybe in the pen (as Click did last season with that big AAV Baez deal) and maybe for a TORP.

There is absolutely no reason Correa should have to handicap his total earnings potential. The Astros have the money, they can pay it.  So what if the contract becomes an Albatross 8 years from now- you can trade it or consider it the cost of doing business.  They're getting ridiculous production for the cost in arms and in the OF.  They have the money to give Correa whatever the hell he wants. Give Correa the Bryce Harper deal. If he wants to stay in Houston that keeps him here until he's 39 or 40. It gives him $330 or something like that.  That's "only" 25 a year.  He won't be worth that in the last 5 or 6 years. But in the next 7 he will be worth somewhere between 40 and 60 million a year. It will be a positive value contract for the team- and it will rip our WS window open for the next 5 years.  5 years from now Altuve will be old- Bregman's deal will be up, Tucker and Alvarez will be going into FA and all our pitchers will be on the precipice of FA.  If you've drafted well and developed then you use Correa as the bridge to the next generation of contenders and the rock solid veteran clubhouse guy. If you didn't then your window is closed and you trade him and eat whatever portion of his contract looks like an albatross, b/c you're going to be starting all over again.  But nowhere in giving Correa that kind of contract is there any worry about him stopping us competing, either now or in the future. 

Fuck, this is not hard and I'm going to be devastated when management doesn't step up and do this. 

[Scraps 13755]

useless info of the day - 

On this day in 1985 Jose Cruz got his 2000th hit 

[Scraps 13755]

51 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Fuck, this is not hard and I'm going to be devastated when management doesn't step up and do this. 

You won't be the only one.  It will go down as the worst roster decision in the history of the team. 

[David Dennison 19442]

Just now, Scraps said:

You won't be the only one.  It will go down as the worst roster decision in the history of the team. 

Or it won't.

[TonyTexas 10685]

45 minutes ago, Scraps said:

You won't be the only one.  It will go down as the worst roster decision in the history of the team. 

It seems that Crane’s philosophy is to not give lifetime contracts. I’d be interested in seeing a study on how these mega contracts have worked out historically.

I do know that I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt as he has been an able steward of the golden age of Houston baseball

Edited September 15, 2021 by TonyTexas

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

14 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

It seems that Crane’s philosophy is to not give lifetime contracts. I’d be interested in seeing a study on how these mega contracts have worked out historically.

I do know that I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt as he has been an able steward of the golden age of Houston baseball

It's something like 50/50 on total value- so- just about like anything else.  The key thing is that they rarely go tits up in the first 4 or 5 years- which is the only time frame we need to protect with this particular window.  I don't care if Correa doesn't earn his money in the last 5-8 years of the contract- as long as he earns it in 22, 23, 24, 25 & 26 that takes us through the club control on most of these guys that are integral now and still under arbitration.  And that's what we need. For this window.  Worry about 27 when it's 27.

[HtownHorn 15243]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is absolutely no reason Correa should have to handicap his total earnings potential. The Astros have the money, they can pay it.  So what if the contract becomes an Albatross 8 years from now- you can trade it or consider it the cost of doing business.  They're getting ridiculous production for the cost in arms and in the OF.  They have the money to give Correa whatever the hell he wants. Give Correa the Bryce Harper deal. If he wants to stay in Houston that keeps him here until he's 39 or 40. It gives him $330 or something like that.  That's "only" 25 a year.  He won't be worth that in the last 5 or 6 years. But in the next 7 he will be worth somewhere between 40 and 60 million a year. It will be a positive value contract for the team- and it will rip our WS window open for the next 5 years.  5 years from now Altuve will be old- Bregman's deal will be up, Tucker and Alvarez will be going into FA and all our pitchers will be on the precipice of FA.  If you've drafted well and developed then you use Correa as the bridge to the next generation of contenders and the rock solid veteran clubhouse guy. If you didn't then your window is closed and you trade him and eat whatever portion of his contract looks like an albatross, b/c you're going to be starting all over again.  But nowhere in giving Correa that kind of contract is there any worry about him stopping us competing, either now or in the future. 

Fuck, this is not hard and I'm going to be devastated when management doesn't step up and do this. 

Yep. Click talked about culture, and that culture has been cultivated by Correa. Hell, we all disliked him 2 years ago before the scandal broke out and he went full Houston heel and we all loved him for it. If ever there was a player to take the mantle from Biggio and Bagwell, as HOF guys that played their entire careers in Houston it is Carlos Correa.

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

Of the 25 highest value contracts in major league history (these are deals 30 million and up) 19 of the guys have averaged (or are averaging) over 3.0 war per year on the deal and 9 of them under (3 WAR is the cutoff point on a 30 million dollar deal provided the average of 10 million per War in FA holds- which it has been typically going up until the pandemic).  The only real disasters were Miggy, Pujols and ARod's last deal (which were stupid at the time b/c of how old they were and everyone more or less said that) and Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer- who got hurt and I imagine the team collected the insurance.

Correa isn't an early 30's 1B nor almost 34 when signing this deal- so I'm not worried about not getting value out of it. In fact- the ideal might be signing him to 13 for 330 (like Harper) having that average salary be low for purposes of cap, and then having him opt out or move it further down the line.  

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

8 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Yep. Click talked about culture, and that culture has been cultivated by Correa. Hell, we all disliked him 2 years ago before the scandal broke out and he went full Houston heel and we all loved him for it. If ever there was a player to take the mantle from Biggio and Bagwell, as HOF guys that played their entire careers in Houston it is Carlos Correa.

Just to be clear I never disliked him and have been calling for ever increasing salaries for him since before he was brought up.  I really really really don't want to lose him.  I was mocked 2 or 3 years ago when I said he should get a 400 million extension to be a lifetime Astro.  No way he should get $400 million.  My bet is that he gets really close to that if you include what his last 3 years of salary were....

[HtownHorn 15243]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Of the 25 highest value contracts in major league history (these are deals 30 million and up) 19 of the guys have averaged (or are averaging) over 3.0 war per year on the deal and 9 of them under (3 WAR is the cutoff point on a 30 million dollar deal provided the average of 10 million per War in FA holds- which it has been typically going up until the pandemic).  The only real disasters were Miggy, Pujols and ARod's last deal (which were stupid at the time b/c of how old they were and everyone more or less said that) and Prince Fielder and Joe Mauer- who got hurt and I imagine the team collected the insurance.

Correa isn't an early 30's 1B nor almost 34 when signing this deal- so I'm not worried about not getting value out of it. In fact- the ideal might be signing him to 13 for 330 (like Harper) having that average salary be low for purposes of cap, and then having him opt out or move it further down the line.  

I have also been a proponent of front loading the contract because you got a pretty decent rotation and enough cheap OFs that you can give Correa 40M+ to start, and then as he ages the financial burden decreases. It also allows the Astros the opportunity to potentially sign more of their younger guys in the future.

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

11 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I have also been a proponent of front loading the contract because you got a pretty decent rotation and enough cheap OFs that you can give Correa 40M+ to start, and then as he ages the financial burden decreases. It also allows the Astros the opportunity to potentially sign more of their younger guys in the future.

Yeah- if we aren't going to go after a hammer TOR ace then you might as well just pay Carlos like 50 million the next 2 years (no opt outs obviously). 

1) you can afford it

2) you decline the value left over and then you have money for some of the other guys in 2 years when they get to that point in time where you want to buy out arbitration and maybe 1 year of FA.

If you were going to front load and you were going to do 13/330 like Harper got (and I really think Correa would do this with the Astros- I think he wants to be there and that gets him to 40 years old) it might look like:  50, 50, 35, 35, 35, 25, 25, 25, 25, 10, 5, 5, 5

 

That sets up the following salary structure for 22 & 23:

Position Players- 126.5

CC- 50; Altuve- 29; Yuli-8; Bregman- 12.6; Castro/Lee- 4; Diaz- 5; OF/DH (non brantley)- 2; Brantley- 16

PItchers- 68.5

LMJ- 16; Odo- 8; Garcia-Javier-urquidy- 2 million total; Framber-5 (arb 1); Maton- 3 (arb 3); Stanek- 3 (arb 2); Baez- 5.5;  Presley 12;  relief ace 2- 10; fill in scrubs- 4

Total:  $195 million. I don't know what the add on shit is, but you should be right up against the 210 tax line even if you gave CC $50 million.  And not have to get rid of anyone on this team that played at all this year except Greinke.  You also get to spend 22 million in the bullpen (I'd offer presley 12 but if that doesn't do it I don't really care how they spend 22 million between the best 2 on the market they can get for that).  That gives you 6 starters, plus whoever is coming up from the farm.  Lose Machette, I'm ok with that.  

Personally- I'd probably trade Diaz and Odo for nothing but salary relief of $13 million or so and repurpose that to spend at the trade deadline in case you have an injury- need to get a veteran catcher other than Castro or need more bullpen arms down the stretch.  I mean- I know they aren't going to do it this way but they sure COULD.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

Presley is signed next year at 10 million.  He wasn't on the salary chart for 22 I was looking at for the Astros.  

[UTexasFight 9790]

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Presley is signed next year at 10 million.  He wasn't on the salary chart for 22 I was looking at for the Astros.  

He probably wasn’t on there because he still needs 4 appearances (60 total for the year) to guarantee that $10M.

if he pitches in 3 or fewer games over the final 18, it becomes a club option on whether to bring him back at $10M

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

3 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

He probably wasn’t on there because he still needs 4 appearances (60 total for the year) to guarantee that $10M.

if he pitches in 3 or fewer games over the final 18, it becomes a club option on whether to bring him back at $10M

Gotcha. Thanks.  Either way I have to believe it's a no brainer that the club picks up the option unless his arm literally falls off in one of his next 3 appearances...

[UTexasFight 9790]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Gotcha. Thanks.  Either way I have to believe it's a no brainer that the club picks up the option unless his arm literally falls off in one of his next 3 appearances...

Right. Exactly.

But good lord imagine the bitching if Dusty only uses him once a week over the final 3 weeks of the season…and an injury were to happen to him in the postseason 

 

[TonyTexas 10685]

Lots of moves. The last one is not the least

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by TonyTexas

[Starfleet Command 441]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is absolutely no reason Correa should have to handicap his total earnings potential. The Astros have the money, they can pay it.  So what if the contract becomes an Albatross 8 years from now- you can trade it or consider it the cost of doing business.  They're getting ridiculous production for the cost in arms and in the OF.  They have the money to give Correa whatever the hell he wants. Give Correa the Bryce Harper deal. If he wants to stay in Houston that keeps him here until he's 39 or 40. It gives him $330 or something like that.  That's "only" 25 a year.  He won't be worth that in the last 5 or 6 years. But in the next 7 he will be worth somewhere between 40 and 60 million a year. It will be a positive value contract for the team- and it will rip our WS window open for the next 5 years.  5 years from now Altuve will be old- Bregman's deal will be up, Tucker and Alvarez will be going into FA and all our pitchers will be on the precipice of FA.  If you've drafted well and developed then you use Correa as the bridge to the next generation of contenders and the rock solid veteran clubhouse guy. If you didn't then your window is closed and you trade him and eat whatever portion of his contract looks like an albatross, b/c you're going to be starting all over again.  But nowhere in giving Correa that kind of contract is there any worry about him stopping us competing, either now or in the future. 

Fuck, this is not hard and I'm going to be devastated when management doesn't step up and do this. 

I’d love for them to sign Correa but I just don’t see it happening.  
 

Personally, I don’t think Crane wants be stuck paying Correa after the Astros’ window closes. Crane has shown a willingness to spend up to the LT threshold when the Astros are competitive, but will likely cut payroll down the bone like he did last time when they are rebuilding.  It sucks but at least we’re not like the A’s and Gaurdians and look to limit payroll in the middle of a competitive window.  All in all, I think he’s a savvy owner who makes good hires (Dusty excepted) and is at least willing to spend when he believes it’s in his interest as an owner to spend. 
 

Also, I don’t think the world will end if the Astros fail to sign Correa. There are other areas where they can spend to improve the team and reach the LT threshold, which I think they will do.  Ultimately the success of the Astros in the next 5-8 years will depend on Click’s transactions, drafting, IFA signings, and luck. I don’t think Click’s an idiot and he was a solid hire at the time but I think some causes for concern are beginning to emerge with him.  Luhnow IMO could be scummy in how he operated but I don’t think Click will end up performing at his level in keeping the Astros at the bleeding edge of talent evaluation/development.  

[TonyTexas 10685]

 

[Chuckie Finster 22993]

Not only is Brantley still out, but Dusty is giving Correa AND Bregman off days just to ensure that we lose another series to the worst team in the league.

[dr99 565]

I guess I will watch AEW tonight since Dusty is running the B team out there.

[UTexasFight 9790]

31 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Not only is Brantley still out, but Dusty is giving Correa AND Bregman off days just to ensure that we lose another series to the worst team in the league.

So glass half empty..

4 game set so we can still earn a split tomorrow!

[Wulaw Horn 19563]

47 minutes ago, Starfleet Command said:

I’d love for them to sign Correa but I just don’t see it happening.  
 

Personally, I don’t think Crane wants be stuck paying Correa after the Astros’ window closes. Crane has shown a willingness to spend up to the LT threshold when the Astros are competitive, but will likely cut payroll down the bone like he did last time when they are rebuilding.  It sucks but at least we’re not like the A’s and Gaurdians and look to limit payroll in the middle of a competitive window.  All in all, I think he’s a savvy owner who makes good hires (Dusty excepted) and is at least willing to spend when he believes it’s in his interest as an owner to spend. 
 

Also, I don’t think the world will end if the Astros fail to sign Correa. There are other areas where they can spend to improve the team and reach the LT threshold, which I think they will do.  Ultimately the success of the Astros in the next 5-8 years will depend on Click’s transactions, drafting, IFA signings, and luck. I don’t think Click’s an idiot and he was a solid hire at the time but I think some causes for concern are beginning to emerge with him.  Luhnow IMO could be scummy in how he operated but I don’t think Click will end up performing at his level in keeping the Astros at the bleeding edge of talent evaluation/development.  

Yep.  Lunow gifted so much talent and such an amazing team to Click that it's hard to judge his talent or mettle- but I really fucking don't like the early signs with pissing away money on Odo, Baez and making an insulting offer to Correa. I will give him credit on getting LMJ done and that's going to be a huge winfall, and trusting his scouts and gut on trading away Straw while probably selling high (and maybe on Toro as well) to open spots for others and solve the biggest problem on the team.  But- he's waaaaay behind Lunhow and I don't have the confidence in him I did in JL.  Yes- I agree with you that Crane doesn't want to pay Correa when (if?) the window closes but fuck it- that's the cost of doing business and you can always get out of that later. It's very fucking short sighted to move on from CC over length of the contract concerns basically, when you have a 5 year window staring you in the face with the young arms and emergence of the OFers as looking league average ish at least while Tucker and Yordan are stars. 

[UTPhil2006 3912]

Josh James the corresponding move for Brantley to IL 

[Hank Chinaski 6346]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep.  Lunow gifted so much talent and such an amazing team to Click that it's hard to judge his talent or mettle- but I really fucking don't like the early signs with pissing away money on Odo, Baez and making an insulting offer to Correa. I will give him credit on getting LMJ done and that's going to be a huge winfall, and trusting his scouts and gut on trading away Straw while probably selling high (and maybe on Toro as well) to open spots for others and solve the biggest problem on the team.  But- he's waaaaay behind Lunhow and I don't have the confidence in him I did in JL.  Yes- I agree with you that Crane doesn't want to pay Correa when (if?) the window closes but fuck it- that's the cost of doing business and you can always get out of that later. It's very fucking short sighted to move on from CC over length of the contract concerns basically, when you have a 5 year window staring you in the face with the young arms and emergence of the OFers as looking league average ish at least while Tucker and Yordan are stars. 

Disagree on Odorizzi - a 2 year/$20mm deal for a guy who’s been a decent SP in recent years, to a contending team who just found out it’s best starter was going to miss significant time, was a reasonable signing. That’s not an unreasonable salary commitment for an average-ish SP. 

Its tough to compare to Lunhow because they started under almost opposite circumstances. Regarding CC - it isn’t always easy to get out of those contracts. Shit, look at the Angels this past decade - they flat out lit money on fire with the contracts they gave Pujols, Hamilton, CJ Wilson…hell maybe Rendon now. They couldn’t have unloaded those contracts on anyone. The Marlins gave Stanton away instead of paying him, which isn’t as bad but still an undesirable outcome. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to lock up CC, and I think he’ll continue to be a good player, but there is risk involved in any long-term lucrative deal.