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2021 Houston Astros Thread

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henrygandorf
henrygandorf

there's so much to unpack from today, so i'll just start listing them. tuesday was devastating for oakland, today was twice as devastating for the yankees.  they had just started to play better. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

The boy and I were at the last ALCS clincher - we were walking on air for days after Altuve’s walkoff. Today, the boy is 5,000 miles and 7 hours away, with no way to watch. So we did a video chat, w

Helobious
Helobious

Enjoy it. Old Altuve, no more Correa means this is the very end of the road for your tainted dynasty. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9369

Posted
Posted

For World Series HFA—not that I exsctly care after 2019–but caught the Brewers tonight. And should own the tiebreaker over them for World series HFA (currently 4 up in the loss column for intradivison record).

so stay there/pull ahead and winner of the Giants/Dodgers LDS would be the only team from the NL preventing us from HFA in the Series

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UTHornFan014

UTHornFan014 710

Posted
Posted
Maton doesn’t have a playoff spot to take. 
I guess that depends on if we are gonna take 12 or 13 pitchers.

If we take 13 then I could see it coming down to James or Maton (who I don't want anywhere near the playoff roster)

If it is 12 I think it will be:
Framber
Urquidy
Grienke (who scares me right now)
McCullers
L Garcia
Javier
Stanek
Pressly
Yimi
Graveman
Raley
Taylor

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, UTHornFan014 said:

I guess that depends on if we are gonna take 12 or 13 pitchers.

If we take 13 then I could see it coming down to James or Maton (who I don't want anywhere near the playoff roster)

If it is 12 I think it will be:
Framber
Urquidy
Grienke (who scares me right now)
McCullers
L Garcia
Javier
Stanek
Pressly
Yimi
Graveman
Raley
Taylor
 

If we take more than 11 pitchers we are doing it wrong and cluck is the paint chip eating moron I’ve always suspected him of being. It’s 5 games. In 7 days. You shouldn’t ever throw anyone that isn’t in your top 8 arms and ideally more like top 7 arms, unless you are getting blown the duck out.

 Carrying only 11 pitchers gives you 3 catchers so you can aggressively sub out plus a pinch runner, 2 pinch hitters and 2 jack of all trades in case something goes plaid in one of the games. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

Posted
Posted

My order of pitchers for the LDS:

LMJ

Framber

Garcia

Urquidy

Stanek

Graveman

Presley 

+++++++++++++++++++++++
Raley on a really tight leash- for a couple outs

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
javier- extra innings only if we’ve used all our other guys (and Urquidy if it goes extras in game 1 or 2)

+++++++++++++++++++++++
greinke

Yimi

only if it’s a blow out. 
 

if something gets weird and we need an extra pitcher Marwin can always “get hurt” and we bring the extra arm on. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10478

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Last year we took 13 pitchers for the ALDS and 14 for the ALCS

I’d forgotten that last year’s playoff roster size was 28 not the normal 26. Let’s work backwards and figure the position players first. Starting 9, Chas, Siri, Diaz, Marwin, Castro and maybe Stubbs. That leaves 11 or 12 pitcher spots. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I’d forgotten that last year’s playoff roster size was 28 not the normal 26. Let’s work backwards and figure the position players first. Starting 9, Chas, Siri, Diaz, Marwin, Castro and maybe Stubbs. That leaves 11 or 12 pitcher spots. 

Exactly.  You take them all.  That leaves 11 pitchers.  You don't need any more than that unless things go very wrong.

Basically, the deal is that if you are behind you have got to PH/PR for Maldy and Castro rather than have them take important AB's from the 4th or 5th inning on.  

Pinch hitters- Chas and Diaz for Maldonado and Castro.  That makes a 3rd catcher necessary if you are going to substitute agressively for the catchers (which you should).  If we didn't have a 3rd catcher in the World Series we would have never been able to PR Fisher and we might not be flying a 2017 Pennant right now.  It's just necessary.

Siri is your PR (Bregman and Uncle Mike and Yordan are all being protected with their legs- if it gets down to it in the 8th or 9th and we are tied/down one you want this option).  

That leaves Marwin as you swiss army knife if you have to pull Bregman or a LFer for pinch running/injury in game. He can play anywhere on the field (except probably CF).  All those guys are fucking way more important than deciding if you want Odo or Maton or Blake Taylor or something as the 12th pitcher.  

In the 2017 ALDS we used 11 pitchers total- 1 of which was Liriano as a loogy, which position is not in play in 2021 anymore with the rules changes.  So that's more like 10.

In the 2018 ALDS we used 8 pitchers.

In the 2019 ALDS we used 11 pitchers- one of which- Rondon- didn't record a single out (and I think he faced 1 hitter)

In 2020 ALDS the astros used 11 pitchers- two of which pitched 1 inning each in mop up role in an out of hand game- and this series had 0 off days as opposed to two.


There is, quite simply, almost zero justification for more than 11 pitchers in this round.  We haven't done it in the past.  We don't need it now. If we use more in any one game it probably has gone very badly for us, and if it gets down to the point where we blow through arms and need reinforcements we can always subtract a position player (sorry you hurt your hammy walking to the clubhouse Stubbs) and add a pitcher, and the only thing bad is that position player can't play in the next round.  So what. Big fucking deal.

 

 

 

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WBT

WBT 20397

Posted
Posted (edited)

You can't replace an injured position player with a pitcher.  A position player can only be replaced with a position player and a pitcher can only be replaced by a pitcher.  A replaced player is also ineligible for that series and the next series.

With that being said, I agree you don't need more than 11 and I would probably only take 10.

Edited by WBT
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Pimphand

Pimphand 5587

Posted
Posted

Jeff Bagwell    1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003
Lance Berkman    2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008
Moises Alou    1998, 2000, 2001
Carlos Lee    2007, 2008, 2009
Bob Watson    1976, 1977
Derek Bell    1996, 1998
Alex Bregman    2018, 2019
Jimmy Wynn    1967
Lee May        1973
Cesar Cedeno    1974
Glenn Davis    1986
Carl Everett    1999
Richard Hidalgo 2000
Jeff Kent    2004
Morgan Ensberg    2005
Yuli Gurriel    2019
Yordan Alvarez    2021

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Scraps

Scraps 13531

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Jeff Bagwell    1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003
Lance Berkman    2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008
Moises Alou    1998, 2000, 2001
Carlos Lee    2007, 2008, 2009
Bob Watson    1976, 1977
Derek Bell    1996, 1998
Alex Bregman    2018, 2019
Jimmy Wynn    1967
Lee May        1973
Cesar Cedeno    1974
Glenn Davis    1986
Carl Everett    1999
Richard Hidalgo 2000
Jeff Kent    2004
Morgan Ensberg    2005
Yuli Gurriel    2019
Yordan Alvarez    2021

Can Tucker or Correa get 13 rbi in 10 games?

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5587

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Can Tucker or Correa get 13 rbi in 10 games?

No Randy Jackson GIF - No Randy Jackson Dawg GIFs

2 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Getting 100 RBI with half of your games in the old Astrodome was probably like getting 108 or 109

It's still pretty staggering to me that we only had 3 seasons at MMP in the 2010s equally staggering we only had 1 season in the 1980s

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10903

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Jeff Bagwell    1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003
Lance Berkman    2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008
Moises Alou    1998, 2000, 2001
Carlos Lee    2007, 2008, 2009
Bob Watson    1976, 1977
Derek Bell    1996, 1998
Alex Bregman    2018, 2019
Jimmy Wynn    1967
Lee May        1973
Cesar Cedeno    1974
Glenn Davis    1986
Carl Everett    1999
Richard Hidalgo 2000
Jeff Kent    2004
Morgan Ensberg    2005
Yuli Gurriel    2019
Yordan Alvarez    2021

I’m convinced that Ensberg sold his soul for that one season.  

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10903

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2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

What’s Kaplan have to say about the playoff roster? Someone with an Athletic subscription please post. Thanks in advance. 
https://theathletic.com/2832618/2021/09/20/astros-26-man-alds-roster-projection-zack-greinke-still-makes-the-rotation-and-jose-siri-gets-a-bench-spot/

Spoiler

With two weeks to play in the regular season, it’s a matter of when, not if, the Astros will clinch the American League West title and secure a spot in an AL Division Series. Their likely first-round opponent is the AL Central’s White Sox. If the season ended today, the Astros would have home-field advantage for the best-of-five set.

The matchup plays a significant role in postseason roster construction. So does the format of the series. With an off day between Games 2 and 3 and 4 and 5, teams can get away with carrying fewer pitchers and a larger bench than they typically field during the regular season. The best-of-seven AL Championship Series, which calls for Games 3, 4 and 5 on consecutive days, incentivizes teams to carry a full bullpen.

In the case of the White Sox, they feature a right-handed-dominant lineup. Tim Anderson, José Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert all hit from the right side. Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal are switch hitters; Moncada has performed better as a left-handed hitter this season Grandal has performed well from either side. Their left-handed hitters are Brian Goodwin and Cesar Hernandez, who generally bat toward the bottom of the order.

The right-handedness of the White Sox lineup bodes well for some Astros pitchers, like Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, and poorly for others, like Zack Greinke. The Astros came into Monday with 13 regular-season games remaining, a small sample in the grand scheme of things but an important one for the last handful of postseason roster decisions. Keeping in mind that performances over these last two weeks could change things (especially on the pitching side), here’s my initial projection for the Astros’ 26-man ALDS roster.

Starting pitchers (4)

RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
LHP Framber Valdez
RHP Luis Garcia
RHP Zack Greinke

José Urquidy is the odd man out of the rotation in this projection only because I believe the Astros, operating with an all-hands-on-deck mentality, might leverage him out of the bullpen in their effort to win Game 1 or Game 2. There’s no guarantee of a Game 4. If Urquidy pitches early in the series, he could impact two games instead of one.

Deploying Urquidy in relief could allow the Astros to bypass their shaky middle relief in one of those first two games. Imagine something like this: The starting pitcher faces the first 18 batters, Urquidy gets the next nine and the combination of Kendall Gravemanand Ryan Pressly finishes it off.

McCullers seems like the no-brainer Game 1 starter given both his overall body of work in the regular season (with a 3.11 ERA in 150 1/3 innings, he’s been their best starting pitcher) and his effectiveness against right-handed hitters. His sinker-slider combination has been excellent against righties this season. He’s held them to a .589 OPS in 330 plate appearances. A Game 1 start would set up McCullers for a possible winner-take-all Game 5, as well.

Lance McCullers's platoon splits in 2021
 
PA
  
AVG
  
OBP
  
SLG
  
Right-handed hitters
330
0.194
0.280
0.310
Left-handed hitters
309
0.228
0.343
0.354

The case for Valdez in Game 2 is that he could then be available to pitch in relief in a possible Game 5. The Astros consider Valdez to have an incredibly resilient arm. He bounces back between outings quicker than most. And while he’s a left-hander, his sinker-curveball play against righties, too.

Garcia’s command has wavered lately, but the effectiveness of his cutter against right-handed hitters could still earn him a start given the matchup. He’s held righties to a .559 OPS in 305 plate appearances this season. If Urquidy does make a multi-inning relief appearance early in the series, Greinke would then be the fallback Game 4 starter, if necessary. Greinke has struggled against righties this season, making the White Sox a bad matchup for him. But that’s why I have him starting Game 4, not Games 1, 2 or 3.

Greinke’s current run of three consecutive bad starts, all against bad teams, provokes the question as to whether the Astros might leave him off the roster altogether. They might have go that route if he doesn’t pitch well in his last couple starts. But because I think the Astros will use the best-of-five format to be creative with their pitcher usage, I still project Greinke to be in there at the back of a four-man rotation.

Relief pitchers (8)

RHP Ryan Pressly
RHP Kendall Graveman
RHP Ryne Stanek
RHP José Urquidy
RHP Yimi Garcia
RHP Phil Maton
LHP Brooks Raley
RHP Jake Odorizzi

Overview: In past seasons, the Astros have gotten by with only seven relievers in the best-of-five ALDS. But because their starters don’t pitch as deep now as they did in the 2017-19 playoff runs, it would make sense for them to make sure they’re covered by having an eight-man bullpen.

Pressly, Graveman and Stanek are their top three high-leverage arms, and Garcia and Maton represent middle relief. Then there’s the excess starter (I’m predicting Urquidy) and at least one left-hander, Raley or Blake Taylor. Raley has looked better than Taylor lately, so I think he gets the nod. And while Taylor could also make it as a second lefty, I chose Odorizzi over him because he can save the rest of the bullpen in the event of a lopsided game. Against the White Sox, the Astros probably don’t need two lefties.

Cristian Javier is a notable omission in this projection. The Astros’ attempt to make Javier a multi-inning relief weapon in the middle of the season failed, as they never figured out how to use him regularly and his command faltered. On paper, he should be ideal for this matchup because, when he’s at his best, he dominates right-handed hitters. But lately, he’s been unreliable.

Catchers (3)

Martín Maldonado
Jason Castro (L)
Garrett Stubbs (L)

Overview: It seemed like Castro’s recent injury to his right knee, which he has had surgically repaired four times in the past, might impact his availability for the rest of the season. But now that he’s back, and as long as he doesn’t experience a setback, he’ll be the No. 2 catcher behind Maldonado.

A decision, then, will concern whether the Astros carry Stubbs as a third catcher. Having three catchers would allow manager Dusty Baker to be more aggressive in pinch hitting for Maldonado and Castro. Stubbs can also run, if need be, as he’s much faster than the average catcher. Baker leans so heavily on Maldonado as his No. 1 catcher that it’s worth wondering how much he would even play a second catcher, let alone a third. But carrying a third catcher as insurance makes sense in the wake of Castro’s recent knee issue.

Infielders (5)

1B Yuli Gurriel
2B Jose Altuve
3B Alex Bregman
SS Carlos Correa
UTIL Aledmys Díaz

Overview: Marwin Gonzalez and Taylor Jones are vying to be an extra right-handed bench bat (the switch-hitting Gonzalez is terrible from the left side these days), but I have both of them missing the cut in this projection. The catcher spot is the only one that should need a pinch hitter. Díaz and the extra outfielders can cover those at-bats. Gonzalez was a free agent in August for a reason, and Jones, though an intriguing option to pinch hit against a left-hander, doesn’t even have a place on the expanded 28-man roster in September. While the Astros audition Gonzalez and Jose Siri, Jones is stuck in Triple A.

Outfielders (6)

RF Kyle Tucker (L)
LF/DH Michael Brantley (L)
LF/DH Yordan Alvarez (L)
CF Jake Meyers
CF/RF/LF Chas McCormick
CF/RF/LF Jose Siri

Overview: Siri has played a lot more than I expected he would when the Astros called him up in early September (and he’s played well), and Brantley’s recent right knee issue might be enough of a reason for Siri to make the roster as insurance. Siri has utility as both a runner and a defender. If he’s on the bench, it could free up Baker to use McCormick as a pinch-hitter earlier than he might’ve otherwise because he wouldn’t have to save him as a possible defensive replacement in left field. Meyers, because of his superior defense, should be the starting center fielder in more games than not.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

You can't replace an injured position player with a pitcher.  A position player can only be replaced with a position player and a pitcher can only be replaced by a pitcher.  A replaced player is also ineligible for that series and the next series.

With that being said, I agree you don't need more than 11 and I would probably only take 10.

Didn’t know that about like for like. 
Did know that about the next series but that’s not a big deal if you are talking about a mop up arm. 
so basically if one of the guys have to wear it in  a blow out you replace them with another similar type of guy. 

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