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2021 Houston Astros Thread

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


he’s referenced retiring a couple of times this season 

yes, I know that but you have to wonder if that was because it was absolutely what he wanted or if his uncertain contract status and discussions behind the scenes with Click and Crane led him to think it was time to leave? If the Astros had asked him to sign an extension during the season instead of leaving him and Baker to wonder what their futures hold, would he have agreed to return or politely declined and said "nah, I think it's time for me to retire..?

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henrygandorf
henrygandorf

there's so much to unpack from today, so i'll just start listing them. tuesday was devastating for oakland, today was twice as devastating for the yankees.  they had just started to play better. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

The boy and I were at the last ALCS clincher - we were walking on air for days after Altuve’s walkoff. Today, the boy is 5,000 miles and 7 hours away, with no way to watch. So we did a video chat, w

Helobious
Helobious

Enjoy it. Old Altuve, no more Correa means this is the very end of the road for your tainted dynasty. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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15 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Despite what baseball america claims, the minor league system is producing. I’m loving the strategy of signing young Cuban players 

Agreed, I think the Astros are well-stocked and, importantly, have excellent developmental systems and personnel in place to maintain a high level of competitiveness for years to come.

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irishtexan

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1 hour ago, Stella Link said:

To the Atlanta Braves players and fans:

Congratulations for winning the 2021 World series.

We hope you enjoyed your stay in Houston.

We hope you had a chance to sample the wide variety of fine cuisine our city has to offer.

We hope your accommodations were restful, clean and comfortable.

Now, GET THE FUCK OUT of our city.

 

Definitely seems like post was written by the corresponding avatar

Stella Link

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2622

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10 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Obviously 2029 is a long way off but as for 2025 all of the starting pitchers from the ALCS and WS not named Greinke are under team control until 2025. Javier is also under team control through then and he's usually a starter and LMJ (who didn't play in either) is also under contract through then. 

I was just referring to position players. Young pitching isn’t particularly reliable from a projection standpoint and is likely the main reason we aren’t playing a game this evening.  

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

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9 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I was just referring to position players. Young pitching isn’t particularly reliable from a projection standpoint and is likely the main reason we aren’t playing a game this evening.  

Speaking of young pitchers, what's the prognosis on Whitley? I assume he's recovering well enough, but is there still hope he can be highly effective at the ML level? I just haven't kept up. 

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CycleTex87

CycleTex87 2975

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3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Good thing those guys grow on trees and no one else is interested in them.  Might as well get five of them while we're at it.

Cross-reference between avg 4-seamer > 95 mph and 150 IP leads to the following candidates:

Sandy Alcantara
Walker Buehler
Corbin Burnes
Luis Castillo
Dylan Cease
Gerrit Cole
Nathan Eovaldi
Yusei Kikuchi
Frankie Montas
Charlie Morton
Zack Wheeler
Brandon Woodruff
 

So who we getting?

Erebody 

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mbtex

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Just now, Gut Wagon said:

Speaking of young pitchers, what's the prognosis on Whitley? I assume he's recovering well enough, but is there still hope he can be highly effective at the ML level? I just haven't kept up. 

His trade value sucks right now.

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Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 1966

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45 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Agreed, I hope this is 100% his own decision and not because of the Astros choosing to not offer him a new contract before the offseason..

"It's difficult, we'll see how I feel in a couple days. There may be another opportunity for me somewhere else, we may look at that, or I may just go lie on a beach in Mexico..., We'll see, I haven't made a final decision yet, but I know I won't be back as the major league pitching coach here. I know that for a fact."  

It seemed like it was 100% his choice at the time, but the Astros might have just been silent and waiting to make a decision on him until after the season.  Sounds like they've got a couple of young pitching coaches who might be prospects for other jobs and want to retain them over keeping Strom.  It also sounds like Strom might not be done.  So it sounds like he's choosing not to come back to the Astros.  I hope the club didn't do anything to run him off.

58 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Hate to tell you but the 2025-2029 years are likely to be bad regardless of whether Correa is re-signed.  It’s almost impossible to be great for a decade, and the current system rewards you for either winning big or losing big.  
 

In 2025 we’re likely looking at a roster of Tucker, Yordan and 8 other guys who currently aren’t playing for teams.    If you have to overpay in 2022-2023 to keep this iterations of the Astros’ window open it would be foolish to do otherwise.  

This.  We're in a 'win now' window.  I don't think we're a playoff team without Correa this year.  I don't think we're a playoff team without him next year as the roster is currently constructed.

1 hour ago, Gourmand said:

 

I'm still a little unclear about the circumstances of his departure. He said he decided last month he wouldn't be returning to the Astros and sat down with Click to discuss it (his contract is up this year along with Dusty's). I know his retirement was expected and he's looking forward to a break from the game, but he also spoke about possibly returning with another organization and seeing what happens next. Those statements seem a bit contradictory and I wonder if the Astros were using the expiring contract opportunity to nudge the old guy out the door in an effort to replace him with his younger proteges.....

Same.  Like I said, I hope we didn't do anything to run him off.

1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:

If Correa has a degenerative lumbar disc, no way would I give him an 7+ year contract. He needs to go get some bone marrow stem cells injected in his disc asap. 
 

Fans are too emotional, especially coming off this run. We might already seen Correa’s best, or his peak may only be another 2-3 years. If the Astros give him 8/30+, there’s a high likelihood of bad times ahead in the 2025-2029 years. Remember when we had so much money tied up in our big signing of Taco Caballo Carlos Lee that led straight into the 100 loss seasons?

If this condition is true then everyone will know about it and it will affect his value for everyone.  We're going to suck again at some point.  No reason to waste the window we have right now though.  We need him to be a playoff team.

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Texas St. Armadillos

Texas St. Armadillos 1381

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Good rundown here of the offseason events/dates.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-offseason-key-dates-2021-22-free-agency-cba-winter-meetings-spring-training-opening-day-2022-more/

 

Spoiler

With the World Series now complete, the 2021-22 offseason is officially upon us, and some significant events are right around the corner. Here are the important dates and deadlines for the coming weeks and months.

Nov. 3: As of 9 a.m. ET on Wednesday, all eligible players are free agents. MLB used to make players file for free agency, which was a waste of time. Now players automatically become free agents once eligible (i.e. six-plus years of service time). It is important to note free agents can not sign with new teams just yet. They have to wait five days for that. These next few days are considered an exclusive negotiating period where the player can only speak to his previous team.

Nov. 7: Most contract option decisions are due on this date. Some contracts specify a different date -- the Yankees had to make a decision on Zack Britton's 2022 club option last offseason, for example -- but the vast majority have to be made within five days of the end of the World Series. Club options are controlled by the team, player options and opt-outs are controlled by the player, and mutual options are pointless. They are essentially a way to move money to next year's payroll.

Some option decisions are no-brainers, like Cleveland picking up their $11 million club option for José Ramírez. This offseason's notable contract option decisions include Nick Castellanos (can opt out of two years and $34 million), Buster Posey ($22 million club option), JD Martinez (can opt out of one year and $19.375 million), and Craig Kimbrel ($16 million club option).

Nov. 7: Deadline for teams to tender their eligible free agents the qualifying offer. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth the average of the top 125 salaries, or $18.4 million this offseason. To be eligible for the qualifying offer, a player must have spent the entire 2021 season with his team and have never received the qualifying offer previously. For example, the Mets can make Michael Conforto the qualifying offer but not Marcus Stroman because he received it last offseason.

Nov. 7: Free agency begins. The exclusive negotiating period ends and free agents are truly free to negotiate and sign with any team. That said, much like the regular season, MLB free agency is a marathon, not a sprint. We (probably) won't see a rash of signings on Day 1 because MLB is not a salary-capped league, and free agents aren't as worried about getting left out in the cold when cap space runs out. Also, free agency may be slower than usual this winter given the looming collective bargaining agreement.

Nov. 7: Gold Glove winners announced during a live ESPN broadcast at 8:30 p.m. ET. MLB has already revealed the three Gold Glove finalists at each position in each league.   

Nov. 8: Finalists for 2021's major awards will be announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6 p.m. ET. Those awards are: Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and Most Valuable Player. Three finalists are announced for each award in each league. MLB has been announcing finalists for a few seasons now in an effort to generate buzz.  

Nov. 9-11: GM Meetings in Carlsbad, California. Generally speaking, the GM Meetings cover off-the-field matters, such as the ongoing foreign substance crackdown. But when you put all 30 GMs in one place, inevitably deals get discussed and sometimes completed. Three years ago the Mariners and Rays made the Mike Zunino trade at the GM Meetings, for example. Lots of groundwork is laid for deals that are completed at a later date at the GM Meetings.      

Nov. 11: Silver Sluggers announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6 p.m. ET. If the Silver Slugger award is your thing, this is the date for you.  

Nov. 15: The 2022 Hall of Fame ballot will be released on this date. Just the ballot will be announced. The voting results and 2021 Hall of Fame class will be revealed at a later date. Here are the players eligible for this year's ballot. Most notably, this is year 10 of 10 on the ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling. David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez are the biggest names scheduled to join the Hall of Fame ballot this year.  

Nov. 15: Rookies of the Year announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6 p.m. ET. In our October voting, Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena and Reds infielder Jonathan India won the awards.

Nov. 16: Managers of the Year announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6 p.m. ET. In our October voting, Rays manager Kevin Cash and Giants skipper Gabe Kapler won the awards.

Nov. 17: Cy Young winners announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6 p.m. ET. In our October voting, Blue Jays lefty Robbie Ray and Phillies righty Zack Wheeler won the awards. 

Nov. 17: Deadline for free agents to accept or reject the qualifying offer. Players who accept the qualifying offer sign that one-year, $18.4 million contract and remain with their team (players who accept the qualifying offer can not be traded until June 15 without their consent). Free agents who reject the qualifying offer are attached to draft pick compensation. Their former team receives a draft pick should they sign elsewhere, and their new team has to forfeit a draft pick and international bonus money. (The exact compensation depends on the contract size as well as the former team's revenue sharing and luxury tax situation.) Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien are among the free agents who will undoubtedly reject the qualifying offer this winter. They have larger paydays coming.    

Nov. 18: Most Valuable Players announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6 p.m. ET. In our October voting, Angels two-way start Shohei Ohtani and Nationals slugger Juan Soto won the awards.

Nov. 19: Deadline for teams to add eligible minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Generally speaking, college players drafted no later than 2018 and high school players drafted no later than 2017 are Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, as are players signed internationally no later than 2017. Among the notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects this winter are Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez and Reds righty Hunter Greene. Expect both (and many others) to be added to the 40-man roster on this date. It should be noted there are usually several minor trades on this date as teams get their 40-man roster in order. The Aledmys Díaz for Trent Thornton trade was made on the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline three years ago, for example.

Dec. 1: Non-tender deadline. This is the deadline for teams to offer their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2022. They don't have to sign them just yet, but they do have to offer a contract. Players who do not receive a contract offer are considered "non-tendered" and become free agents. Notable players are non-tendered every offseason as teams decide their salary outweighs their performance, and the trade market turns up nothing exciting. Archie Bradley, Carlos Rodón, Eddie Rosario, and Kyle Schwarber were among those non-tendered last offseason.

Dec 1: The collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and calling this the most important day of the offseason is not hyperbole. Either MLB and the MLBPA will agree to a new CBA by this date, or they won't, and the sport will have its first work stoppage since the 1994-95 strike. That does not automatically mean the start of the 2022 season will be delayed and games will be missed, but it will mean MLB and MLBPA do not have an agreement in place to conduct a season.

"It's hard to characterize progress," commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters, including James Wagner of the New York Times, prior to Game 1 of the World Series. "Progress is you go in the room, you're having conversations, people are continuing to talk. It doesn't move in any measurable way that I've ever figured out, and I've done it a long time. The most important point is I know our clubs are 100 percent committed to the idea that they want an agreement by Dec. 1."  

It's important to note that even during a work stoppage, trades and signings and all that can happen. Jack McDowell was traded and Tony Gwynn signed a new contract extension during the 1994-95 work stoppage, for example. Now, just because transactions can happen doesn't mean they will. Owners may not (likely won't) want to set their 2022 budget until seeing the terms of the new CBA. The new CBA could change the sports economic landscape significantly. We'll just have to wait and see.

Here's everything you need to know about the CBA. Every important deadline and event listed from this point forward is subject to change pending the new agreement.

Dec. 5: The Early Baseball Era Committee and Golden Days Era Committee will meet to consider long-retired managers, umpires, executives, and players for the Hall of Fame. The Early Baseball Era Committee considers those who made their contributions prior to 1950 and the Golden Days Era Committee considers those from 1950-69, and their results will be announced during a live MLB Network broadcast that evening. Negro Leaguers and pre-Negro Leaguers will be eligible for Hall of Fame induction for the first time since the 2006 Special Committee voted 17 Negro Leaguers and pre-Negro Leaguers into Cooperstown.

Dec. 6-9: Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida. This is typically when all offseason hell breaks loose. The Winter Meetings are the busiest week of the offseason, if not with big trades and free agent signings, than with gobs of rumors. It is four days (well, three days, really, since everyone heads home the last day) of non-stop hot stove action. Historically, the biggest moves of the offseason are consummated at the Winter Meetings. GMs can talk face-to-face with agents and other GMs to get things done.

Dec. 9: Rule 5 Draft. By rule, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must remain on their new team's big league roster all season in 2022, otherwise they must go through waivers and be offered back to their original team. Teams are often looking for middle relievers, platoon bats, and lottery tickets in the Rule 5 Draft, and most players wind up back with their original team. That said, 2021 was a banner year for Rule 5 Draft picks, with Red Sox righty Garrett Whitlock and Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo both topping 2 WAR. The lost minor league season a year ago made it inevitable that some players would slip through the cracks, and guys better than the usual Rule 5 Draft fodder would be available.

Jan. 14: Deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures. The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2022 while the team counters with that they believe the player should be paid in 2022. It is important to note the two sides can still agree to a contract of any size even after filing salary figures, and the vast majority of arbitration-eligible players agree to a contract before the filing deadline. Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors released their salary arbitration projections in mid-October. Their model has proven to be quite accurate over the years.

Jan. 15: The 2022 international signing period opens. The signing period typical runs July 2nd to June 25th each year, though last year MLB and the MLBPA agreed to push the start of the 2021 and 2022 signing periods back for pandemic reasons. (MLB is also laying the ground work for an international draft by setting the signing period neatly in one calendar year.) Here is MLB.com's list of this year's top 30 international prospects. Dominican shortstop Roderick Arias, the No. 1 prospect, is expected to sign with the Yankees.

Jan. 20: 2022 Hall of Fame class announced. The ballot is revealed in November, votes are compiled in the following weeks, then the results are announced in the dog days of the offseason. Schilling was 16 votes short of induction last year and asked to be removed from the ballot, though the Hall of Fame denied his request. This winter's Hall of Fame voting results will be the most interesting in quite some time.

Jan. 31 to Feb. 18: Arbitration hearings. Inevitably, a few arbitration-eligible players and their teams will be unable to come to terms on a contract, and they'll  wind up in front of an arbitration panel. Each side makes their case -- the hearings can be contentious because the team essentially outlines the player's shortcomings and explains why he deserves a lower salary than he believes -- and the three-person panel picks either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed, nothing in between. Again, teams and players can work out a contract of any size prior to a hearing, even after filing salary figures. Jack Flaherty, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson were among the notable players to go to an arbitration hearing last offseason.

Mid-February: Spring training camps open across Florida and Arizona (each team sets their own reporting dates for pitchers and catchers, and position players). Cactus League and Grapefruit League play begins Feb. 26 with every team in action. 

March 31: And, finally, Opening Day 2022. All 30 clubs will be in action on Opening Day, with 11 of the 15 games featuring intradivision matchups

 

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6095

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Whats gonna be a bigger gut punch is watching the braves not even make the playoffs next year like the Nats. 

 

Our window realistically is maybe another year or two and I know the #1 foam finger guys that watch all the single A games thinks every prospect is going to be a hall of famer and think our window is another 10 years but it's just not. This season I was disappointed our FO didn't go all in because now we have 4 ws appearances with 1 title. 

I wish they would go super aggressive and sign studs this winter. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19208

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1 minute ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Whats gonna be a bigger gut punch is watching the braves not even make the playoffs next year like the Nats. 

I would take their situation every single time.

You tell me before the season we win the WS but won’t make the playoffs next year, I’m saying sign me the fuck up.

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The Dog

The Dog 44066

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3 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Whats gonna be a bigger gut punch is watching the braves not even make the playoffs next year like the Nats. 

 

They are losing a LOT next year unless they can re-sign some of them: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/atlanta-braves-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

Freeman, Soler (rental via trade), d'Arnaud, CFM, Smyly, and Rosario are all FAs. 

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6095

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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

I would take their situation every single time.

You tell me before the season we win the WS but won’t make the playoffs next year, I’m saying sign me the fuck up.

I'm in the same boat. I wish we would have flipped whitely a couple of seasons ago instead of holding on to him but here we are. idgaf about our 2026 roster like others do.

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6095

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Just now, The Dog said:

They are losing a LOT next year unless they can re-sign some of them: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/atlanta-braves-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

Freeman, Soler (rental via trade), d'Arnaud, CFM, Smyly, and Rosario are all FAs. 

that's my point, the braves went all in and it paid off. Does going all in always pay off? No. But neither does sitting on good prospects that could be moved for Legit proven MLB talent that help you win the ws. I can barely remember last week but I'm not sure what we did or didn't do that we could have done to better the team in 2019 but I know this year we made minimal upgrades to just the bullpen when it was clear we need another SP or two. WS windows aren't ever open as long as they have been for the Astros so I'm more than disappointed we didn't at the least win 2.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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5 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

I was walking to get coffee and it hit me that there is not a meaningful baseball game for another 5 months. Maybe longer if the owners/players can’t agree on stuff
And then I cried.

Yep, it's a shitty feeling knowing there's no more Astros baseball this season and their last game played wasn't a win. I could probably count on one hand how many games I missed watching or listening to this season and posting along with you  assholes in this thread. The last two years have been  hard for me personally and the our Astros were always a welcome and important companion/distraction along the way, a group of badass baseball players I enjoyed watching compete at the highest level and giving Astros fans something to be proud of. My Astros fandom is a big part of my life and very much a part of my identity--I know that there were many old friends and work colleagues and distant family all thinking about me when they saw the Astros reach another World Series. 

The fact is that no AL team has played as many meaningful October games over the last five years as the Houston Astros and maybe only the Dodgers have equaled or surpassed the total postseason games played over that span. Four division titles, five straight LCS, three World Series appearances and a World Series title in the last five years. That is an impressive accomplishment and an era of Astros baseball I will never forget or ever take for granted. This team blessed us with a great 2021 season. 

My chin is held high. Stros for life. 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77125

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Radio has mentioned rumblings from his circle that he wants 400mil+. he’s elite glove / fielder, but he’s not a HoF player at this point. The back issues would worry me but mlb teams spend money like a sailor on shore leave 


Those numbers would turn me off too and good luck to the Yankees or Rangers giving out that big a contract. 

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BurntOrangeBlooded15

BurntOrangeBlooded15 1566

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Correa’s comments make me thinks it’s all but a done deal.  Crane won’t give him the years he wants I don’t think.  He’s been my favorite Astro for years now but I can understand why Crane wouldn’t give him the years. This year was the first year in a long ass time he’s made it through the season. 
 

I could see someone like Semien replacing him. Made 18M a year and is 31. Sportrac has his value at 19.5M (Seager at 31, Story 29, Correa 26, Baez 24)
 

Gotta go get pitching.   I love Stroman (Sportrac value at 21M) and I agree with the point above adding 2 quality starters.  I haven’t looked at it enough or know enough about it but I’d guess another contract similar to Stroman’s deal, or take a shot at someone like DeSclafani from SF (13-7, 3.17 ERA, 3.9 WAR - Sportrac value at 10M ) that had a good year and could get for cheaper making LMJ #2 in the rotation.  Bring back Raley, Graveman if possible. 

Not against bringing Maldonado back.  Don’t hate Vazquez from Boston either 
(.258/.308/.352 with a 1.0 WAR).  He made 7 M last year. 

I like Siri being our starting CF. McCormick can play all over the OF and can be that UTIL plug in guy.  Have Meyers as Siri’s backup.

Now again I’m not as in tune as some of y’all so maybe I sound like a fuck but this is kinda where I am with it.  Coming to grips with Correa not being an Astro. 

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BurntOrangeBlooded15

BurntOrangeBlooded15 1566

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26 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

that's my point, the braves went all in and it paid off. Does going all in always pay off? No. But neither does sitting on good prospects that could be moved for Legit proven MLB talent that help you win the ws. I can barely remember last week but I'm not sure what we did or didn't do that we could have done to better the team in 2019 but I know this year we made minimal upgrades to just the bullpen when it was clear we need another SP or two. WS windows aren't ever open as long as they have been for the Astros so I'm more than disappointed we didn't at the least win 2.

The crazy shit is that if Acuna doesn’t get hurt, not many if any of those trades get made.  Atlanta’s GM went all in and got it done.  Big time for that dude. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2622

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1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

Speaking of young pitchers, what's the prognosis on Whitley? I assume he's recovering well enough, but is there still hope he can be highly effective at the ML level? I just haven't kept up. 

This is kind of reading the tea leaves and from Kevin Goldstein, but it sounds management doesn’t have a great deal of confidence.  What’s the saying?  $10m arm, ten cent head?

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2622

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23 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

I get the feeling, and I may be wrong AF, but seems like the Astros organization is looking to move on from CC for reasons unrelated to this years on the field performance.  I may be totally off base but just reading the tea leaves. 

I don’t think it’s that, I just don’t think Click sees the value and historically Crane let’s the baseball guys do their thing rather than meddle like McLane. Most of the time we (as fans) appreciate this but I think re-signing Correa should be an exception.  I don’t know where you are getting the WAR back from other positions and I’d be deeply concerned about fucking up the chemistry with the loss of Springer and Correa in back to back years.  I think you have to re-sign him and then see where you are before he hits 10 and 5.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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I don't think Correa has Arlington on his mind. He doesn't want to put roots there for the next  chapter in his and Daniella's life. 

 Remember, when the Astros drafted him first overall he had committed to the University of Miami. I think he's looking to take his talents to South Beach. 

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