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MLB Expansion: Austin on the radar?


wood

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12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I think something in near South or near East Austin is the only way forward.  Is there any space big enough over off Riverside by Oracle and all that other multi-family going in?  I haven't been over there since pandemic started but I'm assuming a lot of product came online in the last 15 months? 

Yeah earlier I mentioned the area east of Krieg Fields, between it and the Guerrero Park ballfields. Seems like plenty of room there. And farther east near 183 and the river.

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Maybe the new Brodie Oaks will have a Pollos Hermanos?  

Back to baseball.  None of this matters without a failing franchise.  There's plenty on the ropes, but they've been on the ropes for 20 years and survived.  It's really up to the whims of ownership.  Perfectly healthy franchises have been uprooted and moved across the country.  Others hemmorhage cash for decades and somehow win pennants.  

The new Brodie Oaks will be right across the road from one of the biggest homeless camps in Austin. It better have good security or start throwing some weight around with the city to get that shit changed. May election might take care of that too, though.

Re: needing a failing franchise, the video is referring to expansion, not moving a team here. But either would work.

 

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22 minutes ago, Restinmybones said:

I've always thought San Antonio would be a great town for a major league franchise. I hope it happens. 

The demographics favor Austin over San Antonio for MLB.  Corporate sponsors, household income, singles and higher income young couples without kids/empty nesters, etc.  A franchise will almost certainly sell more tickets in Austin than SA.

MLB for Austin, NFL for San Antonio.  Football is only 8-12 games per year, almost all on weekends when traffic is (in theory) lighter.  So the NFL in SA would draw more from Austin than MLB with it's many weeknight games would.  And an NFL stadium on the northeast side of San Antonio, like 1604/I-35 is more viable than an MLB park.

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1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:

There is not a single franchise in MLB that is "hemorrhaging cash" and there hasn't been a franchise move without MLB getting intimately involved in over 50 years. 

No, but the Rays are looking at moving, for at least half the season.

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7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Confused Thinking GIF

Ben White Boulevard's terminus(it's 2400 block) is at Loop 343/South Lamar Boulevard.  Not to trying to be a stickler, but we all know why a $1bn re-development wants nothing to do with "Ben White" in its location description.  It's Lamar/360.  I do know the city is gonna try to cut an affordable housing deal with Oles, and not that rents at 60% of market stuff.......like direct mid-term housing for directly homeless residents.  That's why they called in Armbrust & brown to avoid that.  

 

 

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17 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

The demographics favor Austin over San Antonio for MLB.  Corporate sponsors, household income, singles and higher income young couples without kids/empty nesters, etc.  A franchise will almost certainly sell more tickets in Austin than SA.

MLB for Austin, NFL for San Antonio.  Football is only 8-12 games per year, almost all on weekends when traffic is (in theory) lighter.  So the NFL in SA would draw more from Austin than MLB with it's many weeknight games would.  And an NFL stadium on the northeast side of San Antonio, like 1604/I-35 is more viable than an MLB park.

NFL is where you could stick a huge stadium out in the fields of Hays/Comal and do well.  But Jerruh would never allow.

Edited by Beau Vine
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One other location, if they did decide to push for the Domain area, is the city plot of maintenance facilities on the north side of Kramer east of the RR crossing.  Within walking distance of both the Kramer Red Line station and the soon be built Broadmoor station.  Why can't that light industrial maintenance be moved to lower cost land, like 5 miles east near the 290 landfills?

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All of this site debate is amusing. Austin isn’t going to get a MLB franchise in the foreseeable future. MLB will expand by 2 to bring the total teams to 32 at some point. but who knows when. The current sentiment among ownership is that there is no rush. Austin/SA would be competing with, and probably behind, Portland, Montreal, Charlotte, Vegas, Nashville, Vancouver, even Monterey/Mexico City. Yeah TB might relocate but Montreal is the current favorite there. Not to mention the pushback from the Astros and the Rangers 

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Again, I agree that a relocation is really the only possibility as was expressed to me.  When a 2-team expansion occurs, I think it'll tread into more "uncovered" territory.  That said, the pushback from Houston and the Rangers will be much more effective with regard to an expansion franchise than with a relocation.  

But baseball markets are an anomaly in that some small markets have prospered for a century (Cardinals & Reds).  And legacy TV deals help cement some teams into the national psyche despite people living thousands of miles away (Cubs & Braves).  Other large market teams have been footnotes since their beginnings (White Sox & Mets).  I know this happens in other sports but in baseball, it's been going for a helluva lot longer.  

Look at the IH-70 teams.  Rockies, Royals, Cardinals.  Three small market teams on 900 miles of barren highway with nary a thing between them.  Nothing to their north, nothing to their south except farmland for 300 miles in either direction.  You could move the Rockies and Royals tomorrow and all of baseball wouldn't skip a beat.  You could do the same thing, for different reasons, to Oakland or the Padres.  I think in the vastness of Texas, with the massive population growth in the triangle---you could plunk down a relocated franchise and Houston and the Rangers wouldn't be able to say much about it.  Other than banding together to control player costs and public image (rules, drugs, speed of the game, etc.), ownership groups really don't give much of a fuck about one another's financial well-being.  In fact, the vibe I get is quite the opposite. 

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38 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

All of this site debate is amusing. Austin isn’t going to get a MLB franchise in the foreseeable future. MLB will expand by 2 to bring the total teams to 32 at some point. but who knows when. The current sentiment among ownership is that there is no rush. Austin/SA would be competing with, and probably behind, Portland, Montreal, Charlotte, Vegas, Nashville, Vancouver, even Monterey/Mexico City. Yeah TB might relocate but Montreal is the current favorite there. Not to mention the pushback from the Astros and the Rangers 

I agree there's no reason to believe a move here is imminent, but if there's any possibility of attracting a club or expansion attention, it has to start somewhere. If there's the potential for expansion, Austin's as good a spot as any of the other candidates. Why would we be behind Portland (smaller market compared to Central Texas), Montreal (MLB already failed there once), Nashville (smaller market), etc?

MLB should have been in Mexico City decades ago, but still isn't, which tells me they don't want to or can't be there for some reason or another. An Austin team's not gonna hurt the Astros or Rangers in terms of attendance & probably very little, if any, in terms of tv market. I only brought up TB in regard to it being a team that's looking at moving. Not saying they'd move here. 

And the 'site debate' is more about showing there are potential locations that are workable and close enough to downtown, not trying to figure out which one is best.

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12 minutes ago, wood said:

I agree there's no reason to believe a move here is imminent, but why would we be behind Portland (smaller market compared to Central Texas), Montreal (MLB already failed there once), Nashville (smaller market), etc?

MLB should have been in Mexico City decades ago, but still isn't, which tells me they don't want to be there for some reason or another. An Austin team's not gonna hurt the Astros or Rangers in terms of attendance & probably very little in terms of tv market. I only brought up TB in regard to it being a team that's looking at moving. Not saying they'd move here. 

Check the Nielsen DMA rankings Austin Ranks 40th. Portland (22), Charlotte(21), Nashville (28) rank ahead of them. New Orleans (50) and Vegas (39) are farther down the list, but probably would make it up with all the tourism.

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13 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

Check the Nielsen DMA rankings Austin Ranks 40th. Portland (22), Charlotte(21), Nashville (28) rank ahead of them. New Orleans (50) and Vegas (39) are farther down the list, but probably would make it up with all the tourism.

What does the "Austin" market include? In terms of people, Austin brings much more than Austin itself. Most of the others are similar in terms of size of their specific metro area compared to Austin's, but don't have extended population density around them like Austin does (SA, SM, NB, the I-35 corridor, Killeen/Ft. Hood, etc).

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3 minutes ago, wood said:

What does the "Austin" market include? In terms of people, Austin brings much more than Austin itself. Most of the others are similar in terms of size of their specific metro area compared to Austin's, but don't have extended population density around them like Austin does (SA, SM, NB, the I-35 corridor, Killeen/Ft. Hood, etc).

I'm certainly no expert, but I believe it covers the radio or TV Range. My guess is Everything from San Marcos to just south of Temple. San Antonio has it's own DMA - it's 31st

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Ben White Boulevard's terminus(it's 2400 block) is at Loop 343/South Lamar Boulevard.  Not to trying to be a stickler, but we all know why a $1bn re-development wants nothing to do with "Ben White" in its location description.  It's Lamar/360.  I do know the city is gonna try to cut an affordable housing deal with Oles, and not that rents at 60% of market stuff.......like direct mid-term housing for directly homeless residents.  That's why they called in Armbrust & brown to avoid that.  

 

 

I get what you're saying. And you're specifying the West side vs. East side.

Just thought it was funny because... it's the same intersection.

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4 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

I'm certainly no expert, but I believe it covers the radio or TV Range. My guess is Everything from San Marcos to just south of Temple. San Antonio has it's own DMA - it's 31st

That would make sense, but some of the cities you mentioned that are listed ahead of Austin have similar or smaller populations in their metro areas than Austin, but are listed as having more homes. That tells me the Austin market is defined fairly narrowly in that list & they aren't including much of the population that Austin would bring, or they're counting huge areas for some of those other cities, extending well beyond their actual metro areas.

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I get what you're saying. And you're specifying the West side vs. East side.

Just thought it was funny because... it's the same intersection.

Oh, I know....just splitting hairs.  But that's what the brokers and agents are gonna do with that development one day.  Nobody is gonna mention Ben White, that's the road way far east of our glamorous development.  You see, we're on 360 & Lamar...gateway to Barton Creek and the rolling hills of West Austin.  

The fucking light bleed into my south austin neighborhood from an MLB ballpark at Brodie Oaks or Barton Creek Square would be brutal  But gotta admit...something about sitting outside on a May night with a beer and listening for the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd would be something else.  Could put it at Brodie Oaks and ask the ownership to cough about another few hundred million for a new light rail line down there.  We're already blowing $20bn on it, what's another few hundred million?  

The Brackenridge Tract would be interesting.  The local neighborhoods would never allow it but could be interesting leverage by the UT System.  "Your choices are a light density multi-family/mixed-use development with lots of green spaces and road improvements or a fucking 30,000 seat MLB stadium.  Take your pick asshole."  But you know...we'll work on the messaging.

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1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Oh, I know....just splitting hairs.  But that's what the brokers and agents are gonna do with that development one day.  Nobody is gonna mention Ben White, that's the road way far east of our glamorous development.  You see, we're on 360 & Lamar...gateway to Barton Creek and the rolling hills of West Austin.  

The fucking light bleed into my south austin neighborhood from an MLB ballpark at Brodie Oaks or Barton Creek Square would be brutal  But gotta admit...something about sitting outside on a May night with a beer and listening for the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd would be something else.  Could put it at Brodie Oaks and ask the ownership to cough about another few hundred million for a new light rail line down there.  We're already blowing $20bn on it, what's another few hundred million?  

The Brackenridge Tract would be interesting.  The local neighborhoods would never allow it but could be interesting leverage by the UT System.  "Your choices are a light density multi-family/mixed-use development with lots of green spaces and road improvements or a fucking 30,000 seat MLB stadium.  Take your pick asshole."  But you know...we'll work on the messaging.

I don't like that location almost simply due to eyesore potential. That is a very elevated and prominent part of Austin that features a lot of beautiful natural sight-lines.You would be able to see that ballpark from everywhere

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11 minutes ago, wood said:

That would make sense, but some of the cities you mentioned that are listed ahead of Austin have similar or smaller populations in their metro areas than Austin, but are listed as having more homes. That tells me the Austin market is defined fairly narrowly in that list & they aren't including much of the population that Austin would bring, or they're counting huge areas for some of those other cities, extending well beyond their actual metro areas.

And don't get wrong. I'm a Rangers fan, I live north of Plano. But I would love to see a team in Austin. Would make for a nice road trip

 

Here is what Wikipedia says it covers: Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Mason, Travis, Williamson - I read somewhere that there is some overlap 

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Yeah, that's true.  As opposed to now, when all of Austin gets to enjoy the view of an abandoned Toys 'R Us full of broken glass and fractured dreams.  

A stadium would look goofy up there unless you could flank it with some mid-rise multi-family, a hotel, and 1-2 office towers.  basically a truncated version of what's already being planned there just smooshed up against the exterior of the property with the stadium nestled into the center or northern end.  The whole thing wouldn't work financially for Oles as just a baseball stadium  anyway.  

But who're we kidding, if a stadium were to go up within a decade...it'd be in close-in East Austin or somewhere way up north on this glamorous light rail line.

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7 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

And don't get wrong. I'm a Rangers fan, I live north of Plano. But I would love to see a team in Austin. Would make for a nice road trip

 

Here is what Wikipedia says it covers: Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Mason, Travis, Williamson - I read somewhere that there is some overlap 

Thanks. Oh, and I forgot to mention that, as he stresses in the video, it's not all about current population/market size & he rates population growth as a top consideration. The biggest reason he rates Austin so highly is that our population size is very good, but our growth rate is roughly double that of even the fastest-growing other cities that he talks about. We have to put up with all the problems associated with such rapid growth. It's about time we got something good out of it!

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I know it doesn't work out directly to just state population, but rather media markets...but Florida has 2 teams (22 million people), Pennsylvania has 2 teams (13 million people), Illinois has 2 teams (13 million people), Ohio has 2 teams (12 million people), the land-mass known as Maryland which contains what we call "D.C." has 2 teams (7 million people), and Missouri...fucking Missouri has 2 teams (6 million people).  California with 5 teams (40 million people) being the other outlier.  

A state with 30 million people can sustain 3 MLB franchises.  It's not "If", it's "When"

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13 hours ago, Lobo said:

FWIW, someone told me about 10 years ago that he and some colleagues felt, that if they could get some local help, they could make an MLB franchise work in Austin-San Antonio.  With the stadium somewhere in between.  This was also during yet another rumored phase of expansion for MLB.  This man has strong ties to Texas (particularly the City of Houston and the University of Texas System).  I spoke with him 2+ years ago and he had changed his tune.  They felt that a city-centric stadium would make the most sense (somewhere near Central Austin, but not the Domain) and that relocating a struggling franchise (TBR, PIT, MIA, KCR, MIL, CIN) was the preferred route rather than wait 10-15 years for another expansion phase.  He hasn't said a word about it again...but he should know...he owns a large chunk of the Washington Nationals.  

FZ?

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17 hours ago, wood said:

I agree there's no reason to believe a move here is imminent, but if there's any possibility of attracting a club or expansion attention, it has to start somewhere. If there's the potential for expansion, Austin's as good a spot as any of the other candidates. Why would we be behind Portland (smaller market compared to Central Texas), Montreal (MLB already failed there once), Nashville (smaller market), etc?

Because those cities actually have a non-zero chance of getting a publicly financed stadium.  Really simple.  

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I've been around long enough to snicker whenever someone says something plausible "will never happen".

The list of things I've witnessed occur in Austin in the last 20 years which naysayers said would never happen is significant.

The idea that a market rapidly approaching 2.5 million, that's been among the fastest growing in the nation for the last several decades is not considered one of the more attractive expansion or relocation markets in the country is ridiculous.

Does any of that mean it's a sure thing?  Of course not!  However, it is hardly unreasonable or improbable to believe that another "major league" franchise will land in the Austin market at some point in the foreseeable future.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Somnio said:

The idea that a market rapidly approaching 2.5 million, that's been among the fastest growing in the nation for the last several decades is not considered one of the more attractive expansion or relocation markets in the country is ridiculous.

 However, it is hardly unreasonable or improbable to believe that another "major league" franchise will land in the Austin market at some point in the foreseeable future.

The barriers to Austin getting an MLB franchise have absolutely zero to do with its market characteristics.

They have absolutely everything to do with the political will required to get a billion dollars of public financing for a stadium.

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Well our land-locked overpriced corner of paradise just scored a rocket ship company today.  

With all the state and city owned land that would be a viable option for a stadium location, the construction costs themselves can be cleverly obfuscated from Austin taxpayers.  City Council looked me in the eye and says renters don't pay property taxes in Austin.  I'm guessing we can convince hotel guests they don't pay local taxes either.  $1 per rideshare ride surcharge to go into a public stadium fund is only a couple years away anyway.  Probably an additional surcharge to our lightrail fares as well.  I don't think we're gonna get there with Ann Kitchen's idea for increasing the taxes for rental cars.  She was gonna fax over the new proposal from her cuntcave.

edit:  David Dennison---I feel like the chicks in "Mean Girls"...but "Quit trying to make MLB: San Antonio happen!"  San Antonio is America's largest city without a major league baseball team.  And it always will be.  

Edited by Lobo
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1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

The barriers to Austin getting an MLB franchise have absolutely zero to do with its market characteristics.

They have absolutely everything to do with the political will required to get a billion dollars of public financing for a stadium.

I don't disagree actually, but the city of Austin's probable reluctance to paying for a stadium does not necessarily preclude the Austin market from landing a franchise.

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46 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I don't disagree actually, but the city of Austin's probable reluctance to paying for a stadium does not necessarily preclude the Austin market from landing a franchise.

Yes it does.  Where the fuck do you think this franchise is going to play?

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4 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Yes it does.  Where the fuck do you think this franchise is going to play?

I have previously speculated that an MLB team would end up in Williamson County.  I imagine if this were to occur the ownership group of the Round Rock Express would be involved.

In theory the new stadium, while in Williamson County, could still be within the city limits of Austin as the city has quite a bit of territory up that way.

I have always thought Robinson Ranch somewhere near Mopac and 45 could end up being a good location for a ballpark.

 

 

pols_feature25.jpg

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1 hour ago, Somnio said:

I have previously speculated that an MLB team would end up in Williamson County.  I imagine if this were to occur the ownership group of the Round Rock Express would be involved.

In theory the new stadium, while in Williamson County, could still be within the city limits of Austin as the city has quite a bit of territory up that way.

I have always thought Robinson Ranch somewhere near Mopac and 45 could end up being a good location for a ballpark.

 

 

pols_feature25.jpg

Compare that location to the location within the city of the other 30 MLB stadiums.  

How many other MLB stadiums are 20 or more miles from downtown?  I count one.

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Well, the Willy Co. section of Robinson Ranch is 13 miles from downtown, so comparables would be The Barnyard at Arlington - 14 and 16 miles from downtown FW and Dallas, Atlanta's park 10 miles out, and of course Anaheim at 27 miles from LA (unless you want to count Disneyland as a downtown).  But Yankee and Shea stadiums are 5 and 6 miles from Midtown Manhattan (further from downtown), ChiSox and Wrigley 3 and 4 miles out.  Philly is 3 miles away from downtown in a sea of parking lots, Milwaukee's is 2.5 miles out and isolated by surround lots, freeways, industrial, and single family home neighborhoods, KC 6 miles in the middle of nothing.   Does St. Pete even have a downtown?  It's mostly hi-rise and walkup residential, so if a Domain location was selected (8 miles from downtown), by the time a stadium was built it would have similar density and urban/retail characteristics.

But I agree that the optimal location is adjacent to a downtown, like most MLB stadiums, or at least fairly close in a central urban hub or already redeveloping district.  Not down the road promises and pretty drawings, like Jerry Jones' "I Want Gloryhole"....

Edited by clapclapclap
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18 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

The barriers to Austin getting an MLB franchise have absolutely zero to do with its market characteristics.

They have absolutely everything to do with the political will required to get a billion dollars of public financing for a stadium.

Quote

Because those cities actually have a non-zero chance of getting a publicly financed stadium.  Really simple.  

COTA is in the City of Austin and has pulled more than $225M so far in State subsidies for just a handful of events a year for 10 years. Surely a pro sports franchise can find a way, with 81 games a year, + potential playoffs and who knows what other kinds of events ...

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2 hours ago, wood said:

COTA is in the City of Austin and has pulled more than $225M so far in State subsidies for just a handful of events a year for 10 years. Surely a pro sports franchise can find a way, with 81 games a year, + potential playoffs and who knows what other kinds of events ...

COTA got state incentives, while Manfred the Genius just insured that none will be forthcoming from Texas for the foreseeable future.

Though agreeing to house the homeless in the (closeable roof) stadium during the brutal winter offseason could win some city council votes.

And don't call me Shaggy.

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6 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

COTA got state incentives, while Manfred the Genius just insured that none will be forthcoming from Texas for the foreseeable future.

Though agreeing to house the homeless in the (closeable roof) stadium during the brutal winter offseason could win some city council votes.

And don't call me Shaggy.

COTA got and will continue to receive Texas MERP subsidy payments - deserved or otherwise, barring some legislation or other significant events. What did Manfred just do?

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2 hours ago, wood said:

COTA is in the City of Austin and has pulled more than $225M so far in State subsidies for just a handful of events a year for 10 years. Surely a pro sports franchise can find a way, with 81 games a year, + potential playoffs and who knows what other kinds of events ...

The state is not going to subsidize an MLB franchise in Austin.  That would kind of piss off the Astros and the Rangers.

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9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

The state is not going to subsidize an MLB franchise in Austin.  That would kind of piss off the Astros and the Rangers.

Probably not. The point is that there are ways to get things done, even when people say there aren't. There were a whole lot of people saying in 2010  that the State would never subsidize F1, too. $226M later, here we are.

 

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2 minutes ago, wood said:

Probably not. The point is that there are ways to get things done, even when people say there aren't. There were a whole lot of people saying in 2010  that the State would never subsidize F1, too. $226M later, here we are.

And virtually everyone in the state is pissed off that the state is subsidizing F1.

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