2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Quote

A lot of employers are now demanding in-person applications because they are overwhelmed by bad-faith online applications submitted only to meet unemployment requirements.

A lot of employees are now frustrated because they are overwhelmed by bad-faith job openings looking for unicorns, among other motivations.

Spoiler

Fake job posts are everywhere and they always will be. As a job seeker, your anger is justified.  Who on earth would go to the lengths of posting a phony position and waste the time of dozens or hundreds of applicants?

The answers may surprise you. A fake job posting can lead disingenuous people to a wealth of information.

Here are a few reasons why companies and other hiring agents post fake jobs.

– Fake job postings exist so that employers can gauge the current talent pool.  What better way to assess how in-demand a position is than to post an advertisement to fill that same position? The number of applications can be a valuable pointer on what to pay a person for a given job.  It also is an indicator of how easy that person is to potentially replace.

– Fake job postings exist so that companies can get a back-up for your position and keep resumes on file. Since we already know that every job is temporary, an enterprising employer might be stockpiling talent in case you make a sudden exit, or, are asked to make an exit.

– Fake job postings exist to make it easier for nepotism and other unfair hiring practices to occur. When the boss wants his nephew hired, it’s not always cut and dry. In many organizations, the company needs to “look outside” for suitable candidates. Searching externally for a candidate can also satisfy any potential Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) mandates.  This is a quick and dirty way to appear fair.

– Fake job postings exist so that people can add you to a list.  It’s unscrupulous, but I know for a fact that in some cases, gigs I have applied for, have led to nothing more than getting my email address added to some spammy email distribution list.  Some job postings exist to merely target consumers for specific products and services. Lame.

– Fake job postings exist so that criminals can thrive.  This is the lowest of the low, actual thieves who are looking to cull information about you so they can swipe your identity or engage in deviant behavior that involves your good name.  This is one reason why it’s not a bad idea to hold back on your personal information on an initial cover letter and resume.

– Fake job postings exist so that people can copy you. Resume plagiarism is prevalent. You need only search “resume template” or a variation to see the thousands of samples floating around on the Web.  Some shady cats have been known to take to sites like Craigslist and post a phony job within their field. This gives them access to dozens of resume that they can copy at will and make their own. It also earns them a place in career hell.

https://www.jobacle.com/blog/the-dirty-truth-why-employers-post-fake-jobs.html

Same as it ever was. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by washparkhorn

[GRHorn 105]

Another milestone 

 

 

[workswithseed 2,088]

We're trying to sell an old frame, and the Fiancee got this.

 

[GRHorn 105]

Kellogg Co. , maker of Frosted Flakes, Cheez-Its and Pringles, said Thursday that higher costs for ingredients, labor and shipping are pushing it and other food makers to raise prices. “We haven’t seen this type of inflation in many, many years,” Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said.
 

[Reagan1k 3,024]

On 5/7/2021 at 2:31 PM, washparkhorn said:

Same as it ever was. 

On 5/7/2021 at 2:31 PM, washparkhorn said:

A lot of employees are now frustrated because they are overwhelmed by bad-faith job openings looking for unicorns, among other motivations.

  Reveal hidden contents

Fake job posts are everywhere and they always will be. As a job seeker, your anger is justified.  Who on earth would go to the lengths of posting a phony position and waste the time of dozens or hundreds of applicants?

The answers may surprise you. A fake job posting can lead disingenuous people to a wealth of information.

Here are a few reasons why companies and other hiring agents post fake jobs.

– Fake job postings exist so that employers can gauge the current talent pool.  What better way to assess how in-demand a position is than to post an advertisement to fill that same position? The number of applications can be a valuable pointer on what to pay a person for a given job.  It also is an indicator of how easy that person is to potentially replace.

– Fake job postings exist so that companies can get a back-up for your position and keep resumes on file. Since we already know that every job is temporary, an enterprising employer might be stockpiling talent in case you make a sudden exit, or, are asked to make an exit.

– Fake job postings exist to make it easier for nepotism and other unfair hiring practices to occur. When the boss wants his nephew hired, it’s not always cut and dry. In many organizations, the company needs to “look outside” for suitable candidates. Searching externally for a candidate can also satisfy any potential Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) mandates.  This is a quick and dirty way to appear fair.

– Fake job postings exist so that people can add you to a list.  It’s unscrupulous, but I know for a fact that in some cases, gigs I have applied for, have led to nothing more than getting my email address added to some spammy email distribution list.  Some job postings exist to merely target consumers for specific products and services. Lame.

– Fake job postings exist so that criminals can thrive.  This is the lowest of the low, actual thieves who are looking to cull information about you so they can swipe your identity or engage in deviant behavior that involves your good name.  This is one reason why it’s not a bad idea to hold back on your personal information on an initial cover letter and resume.

– Fake job postings exist so that people can copy you. Resume plagiarism is prevalent. You need only search “resume template” or a variation to see the thousands of samples floating around on the Web.  Some shady cats have been known to take to sites like Craigslist and post a phony job within their field. This gives them access to dozens of resume that they can copy at will and make their own. It also earns them a place in career hell.

https://www.jobacle.com/blog/the-dirty-truth-why-employers-post-fake-jobs.html

Same as it ever was. 

Does that happen- yeah!  But that article was from 2017 and is not relevant to what I’m talking about.  Factories are literally not running at capacity even though they have orders to fill.  Restaurants are not fully opening to capacity because they don’t have servers. 
Workers are choosing to not re-enter employment for a lot of reasons.  That’s not deniable.  The new labor secretary said so today and that he’s working with companies to try and solve the problem.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Kellogg Co. , maker of Frosted Flakes, Cheez-Its and Pringles, said Thursday that higher costs for ingredients, labor and shipping are pushing it and other food makers to raise prices. “We haven’t seen this type of inflation in many, many years,” Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said.
 

You unserious, hypocritical piece of human shit.

hahahahahahahaha

[workswithseed 2,088]

35 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You unserious, hypocritical piece of human shit.

hahahahahahahaha

What? 

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You unserious, hypocritical piece of human shit.

hahahahahahahaha

Appreciate you reading, and your serious contribution. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Appreciate you reading, and your serious contribution. 

You are a fucking clown.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,434]

5 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Kellogg Co. , maker of Frosted Flakes, Cheez-Its and Pringles, said Thursday that higher costs for ingredients, labor and shipping are pushing it and other food makers to raise prices. “We haven’t seen this type of inflation in many, many years,” Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said.
 

What a whiner. That’s not inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Prices are up because demand is up. Is he saying the economy is growing too fast?

[GRHorn 105]

51 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You are a fucking clown.

I’m sorry you must be lost. This is a forum where people actually discuss the economy, business and finance.
 

You can do the circle jerking (CR) and name calling (DT) elsewhere. Hope this helps. 

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What a whiner. That’s not inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Prices are up because demand is up. Is he saying the economy is growing too fast?

You talking about the Kellogg CEO?

[BearSchlong 8,083]

So, legit supply side scarcity, or just testing out new limits in price inelasticity?

A few weeks back the WSJ announced American household income was up over 20% in March.

[workswithseed 2,088]

5 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

You are a fucking clown.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

14 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. 

Milton Friedman's license plate thanks you for remembering:

MV=PQ

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by washparkhorn

[GRHorn 105]

One year out expectations up to 3.4% from 3.2%. Three years out steady at 3.1%

[DonkeyCigars 144]

22 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What a whiner. That’s not inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Prices are up because demand is up. Is he saying the economy is growing too fast?

Eh, yes and no, I think.

Prices are up for Kellogg's, etc. (specifically calling out them because that is who you are calling a whiner), because the raw materials/raw good commodities are at record highs across the board. Corn, soybeans, baked goods, seafood, and even block cheese futures are all up. Of the 52 grocery categories tracked by Nielsen IQ, 50 are more expensive than they were a year ago.

Also, maybe a not big deal, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have argued that the current sticker shock is only temporary. "An episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not the same thing as—and is not likely to lead to—persistently higher year over year inflation into the future,” Powell said.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,434]

I actually do think it’s a big deal, I just don’t think it’s “inflation,” or not inflation yet, anyway, but rather a broad based goods shortage 

[GRHorn 105]

 

[GRHorn 105]

I guess that piece got Druck back on CNBC today. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Crazy world - Drunkenmiller managed George Soros' money. 

Billionaires gonna Billionaire. 

[GRHorn 105]

50 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Crazy world - Drunkenmiller managed George Soros' money. 

Billionaires gonna Billionaire. 

I realize you find his wealth distasteful, but what specific faults do you find with his assessment?

[washparkhorn 9,939]

11 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I realize you find his wealth distasteful, but what specific faults do you find with his assessment?

Reframe your question and remove the assumption made by you. Or take it to the CR.  We need to keep the political shit out of this discussion and board, please.

[elfenix 34,223]

6 hours ago, GRHorn said:

 

they've been fighting the last war since that war was stagflation 40 years ago.  the cadre that's been pulling the levers since the clinton era largely came of age then and it's what they know and fear most. 

[GRHorn 105]

32 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Reframe your question and remove the assumption made by you. Or take it to the CR.  We need to keep the political shit out of this discussion and board, please.

#1- My assumption is correct, but it’s besides the point. You introduced that as a consideration. 
#2- I know we’ve had some thread mixing, but discussion of debt monetization and reserve currency status is relevant to inflation discussion here. 

[GRHorn 105]

15 minutes ago, elfenix said:

they've been fighting the last war since that war was stagflation 40 years ago.  the cadre that's been pulling the levers since the clinton era largely came of age then and it's what they know and fear most. 

Good point. I guess their experience told them we really don’t want to go through that again. 

[elfenix 34,223]

16 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Good point. I guess their experience told them we really don’t want to go through that again. 

so basically what you've got now on the left is the old guys who think that inflation is the bigger danger, while the young guys think that the lack of real wage growth we've been experiencing since the end of stagflation is the bigger danger.

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

so basically what you've got now on the left is the old guys who think that inflation is the bigger danger, while the young guys think that the lack of real wage growth we've been experiencing since the end of stagflation is the bigger danger.

How much of a role do you think insufficient inflation and/or tight monetary policy have played in the lack of real wage growth?

[elfenix 34,223]

18 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

How much of a role do you think insufficient inflation and/or tight monetary policy have played in the lack of real wage growth?

i've derisively said either here or the prior board that the federal reserve would swoop in to raise rates just as wages were set to go up.  i think i heard on marketplace a few years back that food/energy/whatever they're not too concerned about - what they were really watching for was wage increases as a future indicator of inflation (i definitely heard that, just don't remember which show or pod). 

but that's just one of a whole host of policy and societal changes that have occurred that help hold down wages.  tax structure (tax policy strongly prefers the economy paying out in capital gains), corporate governance (CEOs being "aligned with the company" by giving them stacks of shares, no real check on Cish level pay because everyone sits on each others boards and all went to harvard together), married women being part of the workforce, boomers staying in the workforce past historical retirement age, being able to export your capital rather than import your labor, the downfall of unions for a whole host of reasons, all contribute to both the economy paying out less to wage labor as a % of the economic pie and even less to each individual worker.  though i'm not sure to what extent each of those has an impact, if any. 

so, while i don't think monetary policy is the whole story, i don't think it's a coincidence that since we killed inflation we also haven't seen real wage growth. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by elfenix

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

so basically what you've got now on the left is the old guys who think that inflation is the bigger danger, while the young guys think that the lack of real wage growth we've been experiencing since the end of stagflation is the bigger danger.

Agree. Well said.

Either one thinks the Phillips Curve is alive and well or one believes the Phillips Curve is dead.

I am in the latter camp. 

 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

discussion of debt monetization and reserve currency status is relevant to inflation discussion here. 

Crypto hurts the USD's dominance as the go to reserve currency much more than the world's fear of US debt levels. 

On the contrary - bond vigilantes like Drunkenmiller who like to take down currencies want the Fed to protect their billions by raising interest rates quickly. 

Drunkenmiller has used this narrative as a weapon many times in the past and inflation remained low. He is just protecting his book of business and holdings. 

By the way - the fear of inflation is a cause of inflation. Drunkenmiller knows this. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/11/30/what-are-inflation-expectations-why-do-they-matter/

[ChiTownDoc 21,139]

I'm still calling inflation a bogeyman.  So are we gonna call our shot?  I'm saying mid 5's is the absolute highest we go - and that's far from disastrous.  But it would be the highest since 2008.  And prior to that really the early 80's (couple months in '89 touched that mark.  So, anyways, I'll look like a complete idiot in a few months but I'm guessing I won't be alone.  What say you, surly?  Maybe a poll if someone knows how that type of bullshit works...

Edit: To reiterate I think that mid 5's is worst case scenario and mid 3's is much more realistic.  

Edited May 12, 2021 by ChiTownDoc

[Neonmoon 38,129]

I think 2.5 to 3

[Hook1997 5,351]

My friend has storage buildings and just bought some land to build more.  His materials supplier gave him a estimate and it was 60% higher then the ones he built in December so she told him to wait six months and check back then.  

[washparkhorn 9,939]

2 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

My friend has storage buildings and just bought some land to build more.  His materials supplier gave him a estimate and it was 60% higher then the ones he built in December so she told him to wait six months and check back then.  

On top of lumber shortages (Canada shut down pretty tight) and increased demand (Covid leaving vacation money burning a hole in their pockets), the Texas Freeze worsened the resin/plastics shortage by a significant factor. (OSB need resins, 40% comes from Texas, IIRC). Add in just in time supply chains to exacerbate it further.

As expected, transitory supply chain problems would cause price increases. 

Your buddy's supplier did your friend a favor. Kudos to his honesty.

TLDR for home renovators - find projects not dependent on lumber, plastics and resins for the short term. Decreasing demand will help bring the prices down. (think outdoors - windows, siding, aggregates, landscaping, pouring concrete . . .).

[Trey3216 15,343]

Welp.  Core CPI up .9% month over month vs expected .3%.  Up 4.2% year over year.   So yeah, inflation is here.  

[CHIEF 5,075]

Real wage growth has been happening in the non services industries for years, but it is tough physical work. Our hispanic population in rural areas has been making over $20 an hour for at least six years, mostly in construction. That's just your basic concrete worker. Their biggest concern is the uncontrolled illegal immigration is going to tank their wages. The oil industry has been a major boost as well. 

CHIEF

[GRHorn 105]

29 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Welp.  Core CPI up .9% month over month vs expected .3%.  Up 4.2% year over year.   So yeah, inflation is here.  

 

11 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'm still calling inflation a bogeyman.  So are we gonna call our shot?  I'm saying mid 5's is the absolute highest we go - and that's far from disastrous.  But it would be the highest since 2008.  And prior to that really the early 80's (couple months in '89 touched that mark.  So, anyways, I'll look like a complete idiot in a few months but I'm guessing I won't be alone.  What say you, surly?  Maybe a poll if someone knows how that type of bullshit works...

Edit: To reiterate I think that mid 5's is worst case scenario and mid 3's is much more realistic.  

I was going to go a little higher. The one year expectations were already at 3.4%. I was going to go 4% middle of road, 6.5% high end. 

[gsoda3 3,245]

inflation is simply the measure of the rising cost of goods and services.  whether it's caused by a s/d issue or a buying power issue is irrelevant.  inflation is here.  if it carries on long enough it's like an overstretched rubber band where prices don't fall back to previous levels.    

[ChiTownDoc 21,139]

5 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

inflation is simply the measure of the rising cost of goods and services.  whether it's caused by a s/d issue or a buying power issue is irrelevant.  inflation is here.  if it carries on long enough it's like an overstretched rubber band where prices don't fall back to previous levels.    

Yes but the s/d issue is something that will be fixed in a few months.  Buying power issue is what scares the market.  
10% pullback is healthy anyway.  Nasdaq already 4-5% just this month.  S/p dropping 10% off highs and tech another 10% then we can run again.  Unless someone got in too late that’s far from a disaster with as much as we have gained...

[GRHorn 105]

So transitory, at least to this Fed Pres, means more normalized by end of 2021. We’ll see. 

It’s funny that appearance almost seems in response to Druckenmiller’s column and media appearance.  

Here’s another column from yahoo 
 

 

[elfenix 34,223]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Up 4.2% year over year.

year over year from april 2020 when the economy was crashing.  come on.

[elfenix 34,223]

3 hours ago, CHIEF said:

Real wage growth has been happening in the non services industries for years, but it is tough physical work. Our hispanic population in rural areas has been making over $20 an hour for at least six years, mostly in construction. That's just your basic concrete worker. Their biggest concern is the uncontrolled illegal immigration is going to tank their wages. The oil industry has been a major boost as well. 

CHIEF

a narrow sector and an industry shedding jobs does not a trend make. 

there is no uncontrolled illegal immigration. that's a boogeyman.  last month saw the highest number of arrests at the border in 2 decades.

[workswithseed 2,088]

8 minutes ago, elfenix said:

a narrow sector and an industry shedding jobs does not a trend make. 

there is no uncontrolled illegal immigration. that's a boogeyman.  last month saw the highest number of arrests at the border in 2 decades.

That seems like a bad thing. Just cause there's more arrests doesn't mean that more people didn't come through.

[Trey3216 15,343]

47 minutes ago, elfenix said:

year over year from april 2020 when the economy was crashing.  come on.

.9% month over month is the highest since 1981.   Prices of core CPI goods were starting to spike in April of last year as well.   So yes, it is alarming to see the highest YoY core CPI jump in 13 years.   

[Trey3216 15,343]

47 minutes ago, elfenix said:

a narrow sector and an industry shedding jobs does not a trend make. 

there is no uncontrolled illegal immigration. that's a boogeyman.  last month saw the highest number of arrests at the border in 2 decades.

Do you know how many are crossing the border to have the highest number of arrests?   How about the hundreds of hotels which are filled with illegal immigrants being housed on the government dime in effort to show that the border detention centers aren’t 10x capacity?  

[GRHorn 105]

51 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

there is no uncontrolled illegal immigration. that's a boogeyman.  last month saw the highest number of arrests at the border in 2 decades.

Wrong forum. I’ll just say this is not a well thought out post.

[elfenix 34,223]

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Do you know how many are crossing the border to have the highest number of arrests?   How about the hundreds of hotels which are filled with illegal immigrants being housed on the government dime in effort to show that the border detention centers aren’t 10x capacity?  

 

9 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Wrong forum. I’ll just say this is not a well thought out post.

if it was uncontrolled there wouldn't be arrests now would there?

[Trey3216 15,343]

16 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

if it was uncontrolled there wouldn't be arrests now would there?

If more murders happen in Chicago, they will arrest more people for murder.

 

[elfenix 34,223]

why's it gotta be chicago?