Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
  On 5/14/2021 at 3:09 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Sure you have.

Expand  

For sure. I’ve realized you can’t fight deficits at this point. Both parties want to spend on their own preferred projects. Might as well prepare yourself accordingly, thus my pivot to Bitcoin. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 5/14/2021 at 3:16 AM, GRHorn said:

For sure. I’ve realized you can’t fight deficits at this point. Both parties want to spend on their own preferred projects. Might as well prepare yourself accordingly, thus my pivot to Bitcoin. 

Expand  

Like I said, Keynesian Republicans are the worst.

Posted
  On 5/13/2021 at 6:43 PM, Storm the Field said:

Lumber futures seem to have maybe finally hit a ceiling. Down for 4th straight day and almost $200 off high mark.

E1SXvrjXMAYtetF?format=jpg&name=large

Expand  

Great, now if they’ll just come down another 65-75% I can start on that RV cover and 2nd level deck I want to build.

Posted

we need to watch what'll happen after the $300 / week federal unemployment increase ends in september (will it end?).  honestly it needs to end sooner.  we have a record number of job openings and when you look at the federal and state unemployment checks coming in the incentive to work isn't there.  in texas we're seeing ads for bussers, hosts, cooks, not being answered when offered at $12 - $17 an hour.  if this is done over a prolonged time period we see either stunted economic growth or rapid inflation.  

Posted
  On 5/13/2021 at 6:43 PM, Storm the Field said:

Lumber futures seem to have maybe finally hit a ceiling. Down for 4th straight day and almost $200 off high mark.

E1SXvrjXMAYtetF?format=jpg&name=large

Expand  

I'm developing a MF townhouse project in Phoenix and we just threw in the towel on lumber - just too volatile.  Wood framing is now light gauge steel, exterior plywood now cement board, roofin/decks now Densdeck. We'll still have some wood, like shear panels, interior stairs, etc, but looks like we've cut about 90% of the wood. Our GC noted steel framers are little slow right now due to the pull back in office and retail construction, so off we go, hoping we can get within pissing distance of our original budget.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

Part of the problem/solution is Amazon is now the defacto minimum wage: $15/hour + medical/dental.

Its kinda hard to convince somebody to work the fryer at McDonalds for $13/hour with no bennies when Amazon will do you better.  Especially if you got kids and need to find coverage/child care. Taking away the extra unemployment isn’t going to change that. At least, not right away.
 

As I said: the economy is undergoing a complicated and traumatic transition at lightening speed.  Shit that was totally normal in December of 2019 is weird AF now.

Edited by Bateshorn
  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Posted
  Reveal hidden contents

Inflation Is Here and Hotter Than It Looks. What It Means For You. | Barron's (barrons.com)

 

Posted

What Powell and the rest of our government are participating in is financial repression. An effort to juice inflation and have negative real rates. This was done post ww2 to bring our debt to gdp down from 120% to 30 or so over about 10 years. Currency debasement. Nominal gdp increases, debt is static or increasing slightly, debt to gdp come down.

Posted
  Quote

Inflation is here, say grocery shoppers, home buyers, manufacturers, and retailers who insist that their dollars are buying less.

Expand  

I do 90+% of my household's grocery shopping.  I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

I'd like to know where these skyrocketing grocery prices are occurring, because it ain't at HEB in Austin.

Posted
  On 5/15/2021 at 10:42 PM, jimmyjazz said:

I do 90+% of my household's grocery shopping.  I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

I'd like to know where these skyrocketing grocery prices are occurring, because it ain't at HEB in Austin.

Expand  

Beer.  Even cheap bud light by the case seems to be 2x what it was 10-15 years ago

Posted
  On 5/15/2021 at 10:42 PM, jimmyjazz said:

I do 90+% of my household's grocery shopping.  I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

I'd like to know where these skyrocketing grocery prices are occurring, because it ain't at HEB in Austin.

Expand  

12 months ago 365 whole milk (whole foods) was $3.25, it's $3.77 now.  other things are weird b/c covid and pinched supply lines caused a price spike in almost everything -  beef, pork, eggs (almost up 100% at one point), seafood... but then came back down eventually to almost precovid prices.  there are still some things which spiked (anything in aluminum cans) that haven't come down.  fruits and vegetables haven't come down and probably won't for a while as their price spike isn't covid related. 

 

if you're really interested the bureau of labor statistics has online a chart of CPI with breakdowns by categories. i was looking at it last week, i think they put it out not long before so it's updated.

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 3:38 AM, gsoda3 said:

if you're really interested the bureau of labor statistics has online a chart of CPI with breakdowns by categories. i was looking at it last week, i think they put it out not long before so it's updated.

Expand  

I don't need to see it, I know what I pay.  I literally am not paying even 5% more for groceries than I paid a year ago.  That's a fact.

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 4:16 AM, jimmyjazz said:
I don't need to see it, I know what I pay.  I literally am not paying even 5% more for groceries than I paid a year ago.  That's a fact.
It's very possible depending on when last year you're basing that off of. But there is an empirical way of measuring that and the BLS releases that information.
Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 4:19 AM, gsoda3 said:
  On 5/16/2021 at 4:16 AM, jimmyjazz said:
I don't need to see it, I know what I pay.  I literally am not paying even 5% more for groceries than I paid a year ago.  That's a fact.
Expand  

It's very possible depending on when last year you're basing that off of. But there is an empirical way of measuring that and the BLS releases that information.

Expand  

Dude.  I feed 8 people every night, and have done so for well over a decade.  I have an very detailed knowledge of my fucking grocery budget, because I balance it along with multiple cars, insurance, tuition, a mortgage on a very large house, utilities, etc.

I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

And as far as Bud Light goes, maybe UT_OB1 drinks that swill, but unless he paid $10 per case a decade ago, he's full of shit.  I can get a case tomorrow for $20.  After noon.

Posted
  On 5/14/2021 at 9:50 PM, Mach 1 said:

I'm developing a MF townhouse project in Phoenix and we just threw in the towel on lumber - just too volatile.  Wood framing is now light gauge steel, exterior plywood now cement board, roofin/decks now Densdeck. We'll still have some wood, like shear panels, interior stairs, etc, but looks like we've cut about 90% of the wood. Our GC noted steel framers are little slow right now due to the pull back in office and retail construction, so off we go, hoping we can get within pissing distance of our original budget.

Expand  

The correlation between the recent softening in lumber prices and the recent number of projects I deal with that has said screw it, re-draw it in light gauge, resubmit to the jurisdiction, and push revenue a quarter to the right is not lost on me.

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 4:24 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Dude.  I feed 8 people every night, and have done so for well over a decade.  I have an very detailed knowledge of my fucking grocery budget, because I balance it along with multiple cars, insurance, tuition, a mortgage on a very large house, utilities, etc.

[b]I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  [/b]It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

And as far as Bud Light goes, maybe UT_OB1 drinks that swill, but unless he paid $10 per case a decade ago, he's full of shit.  I can get a case tomorrow for $20.  After noon.

Expand  

that's a weird hill to die on.  annual CPI on groceries averages 2% year on year and it has since the beginning of this millenium. 

 

i did your homework for you.  here's the most recent CPI data. 

 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/DataFiles/50673/CPIforecast.xlsx?v=1503.8

 

 

 

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 4:28 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Here's a perfect example:  HEB milk has been within a dime either way of $3.38 per gallon for YEARS.  Right now, on their website:

image.png.4e2c8ebb63fa3d338e7c5f4921d2b926.png

Expand  

you really don't remember last summer when the price went to $3.89 for a gallon of HEB milk? 

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 4:34 AM, gsoda3 said:

you really don't remember last summer when the price went to $3.89 for a gallon of HEB milk? 

Expand  

No, I don't.  I don't always buy everything there, especially with the pandemic, when curbside pushed me more towards Randalls and Walmart, neither of which charged a fee for same-day curbside service.

If your argument is that $3.38 is more expensive than $3.89, then you're losing the argument.  Seriously, where is the new price inflation if milk is $0.51 less per gallon over the last 9 months?

I think this is a stupid discussion.  Inflation is not rampant . . .  some products (particularly building materials) have shot up.  It's not at all clear that this is the new normal.

Posted
  On 5/15/2021 at 10:42 PM, jimmyjazz said:

If your argument is that $3.38 is more expensive than $3.89, then you're losing the argument.  Seriously, where is the new price inflation if milk is $0.51 less per gallon over the last 9 months?

Expand  

 

i'm responding directly to these comments of yours:

 

  On 5/16/2021 at 4:24 AM, jimmyjazz said:

I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

Expand  

 

  On 5/16/2021 at 4:40 AM, jimmyjazz said:

I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

Expand  

 

 

 

Posted

for comparison's sake.  none of these items are less than or equal to what they cost 11 years ago.  and these trips we didn't buy any beef, seafood, or cokes.  the prices of those have increased even more %wise than the following.

 

HEB mexican cheese:  THEN $1.95, NOW $2.86   46% increase

HEB OJ (52 oz):  THEN $2.50, NOW $2.86        14% increase

HEB OJ (89 oz):  THEN $3.88, NOW $4.82      24% increase

HCF Large Eggs (12 ct):  THEN .94, NOW $1.27    35% increase

HEB Sage Sausage:  THEN $2, NOW $3.39         69% increase

Economax sliced bacon:  THEN $1.78, NOW (cheapest available) $3.08       73% increase

Kiolbassa Chorizo:  THEN $2.98, NOW $3.79         81% increase

Carlo Rossi Burgandy:  THEN $10.30, NOW $11.30       9.7% increase

HCF Whole Milk:  THEN $2.79, NOW $2.97       7.1% increase

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 5:13 AM, gsoda3 said:

for comparison's sake.  none of these items are less than or equal to what they cost 11 years ago.  and these trips we didn't buy any beef, seafood, or cokes.  the prices of those have increased even more %wise than the following.

 

HEB mexican cheese:  THEN $1.95, NOW $2.86   46% increase

HEB OJ (52 oz):  THEN $2.50, NOW $2.86        14% increase

HEB OJ (89 oz):  THEN $3.88, NOW $4.82      24% increase

HCF Large Eggs (12 ct):  THEN .94, NOW $1.27    35% increase

HEB Sage Sausage:  THEN $2, NOW $3.39         69% increase

Economax sliced bacon:  THEN $1.78, NOW (cheapest available) $3.08       73% increase

Kiolbassa Chorizo:  THEN $2.98, NOW $3.79         81% increase

Carlo Rossi Burgandy:  THEN $10.30, NOW $11.30       9.7% increase

HCF Whole Milk:  THEN $2.79, NOW $2.97       7.1% increase

 

 

Expand  

Looks like you need to grocery shopping with JimmyJazz. He must get all the best deals. 

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 5:16 AM, GRHorn said:
Are you a time traveler? Who the hell buys a N95 mask at heb in 2010?
Hah I was laughing at that too. We always have a stock of n95 on hand. I wear masks whenever I woodwork or do things that kick up dust and we had used a few from travelling during swine flu that year so I was probably just replenishing.
Posted

Jesus Christ.  I don't know what it says about you that you have photos of 11-year-old grocery receipts, but let's run with them:

HCF Whole Milk 2010:  $2.78

HCF Whole Milk 2021:  $2.97 (https://www.heb.com/product-detail/hill-country-fare-whole-milk/314124)

 

You got me, 0.6% annual inflation.  It's fucking RAMPANT.

Do I win yet?

Plus, a spot check of your post shows that you suck at math.  Hint:  $2.97 -> $3.78 is not an 81% increase, it's a 27% increase.  I'm not going to check the rest of your numbers.  

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Another hint:  don't buy cheese, eggs, or (usually) meat at HEB, because you can do better at Randalls.  I almost always pay less than $2 for 8 oz of cheese, either sliced or blocked (never by shredded, you cretins), and maybe $1.29 per dozen eggs.  Milk is more hit or miss.  Chicken breasts can usually be had for $1.79/lb.

Don't fuck with me on this, I'm all-Pro.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 5:28 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Plus, a spot check of your post shows that you suck at math.  Hint:  $2.97 -> $3.78 is not an 81% increase, it's a 27% increase.  I'm not going to check the rest of your numbers.  

Expand  

my fault, .81 cent increase, not 81% increase.  

 

it's quite amazing how even in the face of actual receipts showing every single item having increased in price since late 2010 you still can't admit you're wrong. but i guess you're all pro.

 

  On 5/16/2021 at 4:24 AM, jimmyjazz said:

I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

Expand  

 

  On 5/15/2021 at 10:42 PM, jimmyjazz said:

I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

 

Expand  

 

Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 5:31 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Another hint:  don't buy cheese, eggs, or (usually) meat at HEB, because you can do better at Randalls.  I almost always pay less than $2 for 8 oz of cheese, either sliced or blocked (never by shredded, you cretins), and maybe $1.29 per dozen eggs.  Milk is more hit or miss.  Chicken breasts can usually be had for $1.79/lb.

Don't fuck with me on this, I'm all-Pro.

Expand  

$1.29 eggs are so shitty. Get yourself a dozen Vital Farms eggs. Then, crack one of your HCF eggs in one bowl, and a Vital Farms into another. Notice one egg is pale yellow and tastes like shit, and one is a deep orangish color and tastes amazing.

Also, I'm not sure how much in extra time, effort, and gas you spend to save $0.30 on a block of cheese, but this sounds like fucking torture to me.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 5:49 AM, Hornlover said:

$1.29 eggs are so shitty. Get yourself a dozen Vital Farms eggs. Then, crack one of your HCF eggs in one bowl, and a Vital Farms into another. Notice one egg is pale yellow and tastes like shit, and one is a deep orangish color and tastes amazing.

Also, I'm not sure how much in extra time, effort, and gas you spend to save $0.30 on a block of cheese, but this sounds like fucking torture to me.

Expand  

Also, unless you are baking and need to standardize ingredients, kick up to Jumbo or Extra large eggs.  You get more egg in your brrefess taco.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
  On 5/16/2021 at 5:49 AM, Hornlover said:

Also, I'm not sure how much in extra time, effort, and gas you spend to save $0.30 on a block of cheese, but this sounds like fucking torture to me.

Expand  

I live the same distance from HEB as Randalls.  It's literally zero extra time, effort or gas.  It took no effort to crack the code of "dairy and meat today, produce and household goods tomorrow".  Lather, rinse, repeat.  Beyond that, saving (for instance) $1 or more per pound of chicken or beef at 3 pounds per day, etc. adds up fast.

To @gsoda3's point, where HEB is hiding some price inflation on their OJ is not just a mild uptick in price, it's the reduced volume.  OJ cartons have gone from 64 oz to 59 oz over the past few years, and HEB is now at 52 oz.  THAT is inflation, but it seems fairly peculiar to OJ.  A gallon of milk is still a gallon of milk.

This is boring even me.

 

  • Like 1
Posted

wow. price increase over 11 years is rampant inflation.

again, supply chain shocks and what someone else said about economy transforming. you will see wage inflation due to large employers like AMZN, etc raising wages. 

definitely asset inflation due to low low interest rates but that has been going on for a decade now 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)

Economic heterodoxy is progressing using finer and more reliable evidence (thanks to an accumulation of data). The Policy will be based on what the data shows.

The Wealth the Fed protects has been and will continue to be was well served.

The Fed calmed the financial fears of Covid.

  Reveal hidden contents

TLDR: check your sources, always. 

Some smart people on here.

Edited by washparkhorn
Posted
  On 5/17/2021 at 12:37 PM, washparkhorn said:

Economic heterodoxy is progressing using finer and more reliable evidence (thanks to an accumulation of data). The Policy will be based on what the data shows.

The Wealth the Fed protects has been and will continue to be was well served.

The Fed calmed the financial fears of Covid.

  Reveal hidden contents

TLDR: check your sources, always. 

Some smart people on here.

Expand  

You use the same trick as a lot of the media and establishment. You try to create a link between questioning central planning and helping our adversaries. It’s not un-American to question authority. It’s actually quite the opposite. 
 

As far as inflation being transitory, we’ll just have to wait and see.  
 

Not commenting on the political virtue of this, but it was just announced that the new stimmies start in July via direct deposit. 
 

Essentially debt monetization funded UBI, unless taxes are raised. TBD

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Instead of arguing about HEB milk inflation, here are some detailed food inflation #s from the US govt: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/

Milk is probably a bad indicator for inflation because people have drastically lowered their dairy milk consumption over the last decade. And they face competition from non-dairy milk. The dairy milk industry to trying to get laws passed that non-dairy milk cannot call their products milk. It's never a good sign for any industry when they have to resort to anti-competition laws for salvation.

Posted
  On 5/17/2021 at 3:56 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The dairy milk industry to trying to get laws passed that non-dairy milk cannot call their products milk. It's never a good sign for any industry when they have to resort to anti-competition laws for salvation.

Expand  

I normally would agree with the sentiment but words mean things. It's not milk unless it comes from the teat of a mammal. 
Nut emulsion isn't milk, although I hear South Austin's mom drinks about a half gallon a day.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2
Posted
  On 5/17/2021 at 3:56 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Instead of arguing about HEB milk inflation, here are some detailed food inflation #s from the US govt: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/

Milk is probably a bad indicator for inflation because people have drastically lowered their dairy milk consumption over the last decade. And they face competition from non-dairy milk. The dairy milk industry to trying to get laws passed that non-dairy milk cannot call their products milk. It's never a good sign for any industry when they have to resort to anti-competition laws for salvation.

Expand  

The price of Milk seems to be pretty steady since about 2008. Milk production has steadily increased, which may account for the flat price. But, also milk pricing is heavily regulated and so it might not be a good indicator for inflation.https://www.statista.com/statistics/194937/total-us-milk-production-since-1999/

1601694728_ScreenShot2021-05-17at7_13_13PM.thumb.png.42d44ec9709b6a0c51336ba2fa9db5e4.png

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/milk-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/

 

Posted

My dad keeps talking about inflation. So do all my right wing friends. I always bet against the grain whenever I start hearing shit like that. I’m betting it’s transitory/no big deal. Maybe I’m wishing it to be so, but I bet I’m correct to not be concerned.

I think there is just too much downward pressure from flattening and bringing more of the world online to see much upward inflationary pressure. I could well be wrong but that’s my call. 

Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 3:14 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

My dad keeps talking about inflation. So do all my right wing friends. I always bet against the grain whenever I start hearing shit like that. I’m betting it’s transitory/no big deal. Maybe I’m wishing it to be so, but I bet I’m correct to not be concerned.

I think there is just too much downward pressure from flattening and bringing more of the world online to see much upward inflationary pressure. I could well be wrong but that’s my call. 

Expand  

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - Updated May 12, 2021:

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0521.pdf (pdf from USDA). https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/documentation/  

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...