2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[jimmyjazz 45891]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Huh, I’ve always been against massive deficits and debt. Most Bitcoin enthusiasts tilt Austrian. 

Sure you have.

[GRHorn 105]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sure you have.

For sure. I’ve realized you can’t fight deficits at this point. Both parties want to spend on their own preferred projects. Might as well prepare yourself accordingly, thus my pivot to Bitcoin. 

[workswithseed 2090]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

For sure. I’ve realized you can’t fight deficits at this point. Both parties want to spend on their own preferred projects. Might as well prepare yourself accordingly, thus my pivot to Bitcoin. 

Like I said, Keynesian Republicans are the worst.

[UT_OB1 2217]

20 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Lumber futures seem to have maybe finally hit a ceiling. Down for 4th straight day and almost $200 off high mark.

Great, now if they’ll just come down another 65-75% I can start on that RV cover and 2nd level deck I want to build.

[Storm the Field 5294]

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Great, now if they’ll just come down another 65-75% I can start on that RV cover and 2nd level deck I want to build.

Limit down today, you're getting there!

[Bateshorn 9927]

The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Bateshorn

[gsoda3 3248]

we need to watch what'll happen after the $300 / week federal unemployment increase ends in september (will it end?).  honestly it needs to end sooner.  we have a record number of job openings and when you look at the federal and state unemployment checks coming in the incentive to work isn't there.  in texas we're seeing ads for bussers, hosts, cooks, not being answered when offered at $12 - $17 an hour.  if this is done over a prolonged time period we see either stunted economic growth or rapid inflation.  

[Bateshorn 9927]

Some of the hospitality job pressure is going to end when school and college lets out.  

[Mach 1 1677]

On 5/13/2021 at 11:43 AM, Storm the Field said:

Lumber futures seem to have maybe finally hit a ceiling. Down for 4th straight day and almost $200 off high mark.

I'm developing a MF townhouse project in Phoenix and we just threw in the towel on lumber - just too volatile.  Wood framing is now light gauge steel, exterior plywood now cement board, roofin/decks now Densdeck. We'll still have some wood, like shear panels, interior stairs, etc, but looks like we've cut about 90% of the wood. Our GC noted steel framers are little slow right now due to the pull back in office and retail construction, so off we go, hoping we can get within pissing distance of our original budget.

[Parliament 14247]

6 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

we need to watch what'll happen after the $300 / week federal unemployment increase ends in september (will it end?).  honestly it needs to end sooner. 

Quite a few states re ending it now.

[Bateshorn 9927]

Part of the problem/solution is Amazon is now the defacto minimum wage: $15/hour + medical/dental.

Its kinda hard to convince somebody to work the fryer at McDonalds for $13/hour with no bennies when Amazon will do you better.  Especially if you got kids and need to find coverage/child care. Taking away the extra unemployment isn’t going to change that. At least, not right away.
 

As I said: the economy is undergoing a complicated and traumatic transition at lightening speed.  Shit that was totally normal in December of 2019 is weird AF now.

Edited May 15, 2021 by Bateshorn

[GRHorn 105]

Spoiler

Nebraska Furniture Mart Chairman Irv Blumkin says the price of one shipping container has jumped over the past six months to $10,000 from $3,500. Short on containers, his suppliers abroad are out of storage and halting production, exacerbating Blumkin’s order backlogs that are six times as long as they were a few months ago. Broadly, Blumkin says his vendors for all manner of goods and services have increased prices multiple times over the past three months, each ranging from 3% to 8%.

 

 

 

“Is this temporary? I would hope it’s that way. But the reality is that they’re putting surcharges and increases on, and some suppliers here and abroad are sold out for the rest of the year,” says Blumkin, whose grandmother started the company that operates in Nebraska, Texas, Kansas, and Iowa, and sold a majority stake to Berkshire Hathaway in 1983. “It’s the highest rate of inflation I’ve ever seen, except for in the ’70s.”

What is happening at Nebraska Furniture Mart is playing out across America. Yet monetary and fiscal policy remains on autopilot, geared to an economy stuck in recession, as the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge remains close to its longstanding 2% target. There is nothing to see here, say Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other key central bankers, contending that inflation figures that have risen are about reopening bursts and comparisons to data gathered during pandemic-driven lockdowns, and will be, in that oft-repeated word, “transitory.”

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• Oil Stocks, Baseball Cards, Luxury Watches, and Other Hedges for Higher Inflation

For business owners and consumers on the ground, official inflation data and policy makers’ commentary are an alternate reality. Inflation is here, say grocery shoppers, home buyers, manufacturers, and retailers who insist that their dollars are buying less. They don’t have the luxury of ignoring the food and energy costs that are backed out of the price metrics preferred by policy makers, and they can’t help but notice the 17% jump in existing-home prices that isn’t directly figured into such gauges. For the average American household, food, energy, and shelter combined represent roughly 50% of income before taxes.

Bracing for a HitBusinesses expect record-high growth inunit costs over the coming 12 months.Expected increase in unit costs over thenext 12 monthsSources: Apollo Global Mgmt.; Atlanta Fed

%Jan.’12Jan.’14Jan.’16Jan.’18Jan.’200.51.01.52.02.53.0

Nor do increasingly generous recruitment bonuses affect all key inflation measures on wages. As the economy recovers faster than expected, the government pays enhanced unemployment benefits until September, child care remains an issue, and big employers like Amazon.com (ticker: AMZN) recently raised starting wages to $15 an hour, companies across the country are scrambling to hire. In fact, businesses are offering sizable signing bonuses for everything from pizza-delivery drivers to truckers and dental hygienists.

The gap between reported price inflation and the experiences of businesses and consumers is a signal to investors that inflation is hotter than it looks. Implications of the disconnect are vast, affecting Social Security payments, tax-bracket adjustments, and economic growth calculations, in addition to investment returns, inflation expectations, and interest rates.

“All you have to do is open up your eyes to see there is inflation pressure everywhere,” says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “We are in stimulus shock.” For evidence, he points to the 26% year-over-year increase in M2 money supply, the largest gain since 1943, as fiscal spending in response to the pandemic has topped $5 trillion. M1, or very liquid money in circulation, is up by 316%. The Fed, meanwhile, has shown no signs of slowing the $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that it began in response to the pandemic.

 

It is possible that the Fed is right, and soaring prices in everything from lumber to labor will drop once Covid-19 fades, rendering inflation a head fake and current worries an overreaction. Inflation, at least as measured, could after a quarter or two go back to being as elusive as it was in the prior decade—especially if legislators rein in spending. Disappointing hiring numbers in April, when the 266,000 jobs added was far below the 975,000 that economists expected, is fodder for the view that a full recovery is distant.

The evidence, though, suggests that it’s risky for investors not to prepare for a Fed that is wrong—or only half-right. That would result in an economy that is weaker than it appears but with persistent inflation, portending the stagflation last seen a half-century ago.

“The trend is not the Fed’s friend,” says Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk.

Passing It OnA near-record number of companies saythey plan to raise selling pricesNFIB Survey: Percent of small businessesplanning to raise selling pricesSources: Apollo Global Management; NFIB

%Jan.’12Jan.’14Jan.’16Jan.’18Jan.’20-10010203040

Reported inflation, even with its flaws, has started to rankle investors worried that the Fed might already be behind the curve. Consumer price index, or CPI, data from this past week show that prices rose 4.2% in April, or 3% without food and energy. The much higher-than-expected readings weren’t only because of the so-called base effect: From a month earlier, consumer prices surged at the fastest pace since 1981. In response, major U.S. indexes went sharply lower and bond yields higher, though subsequent bounces suggest that investors are taking Fed officials at their word on the nature of inflation and easy-money policies.

 

That is happening as a record number of businesses say they can’t find workers, inventories are ultralow, and a near-record number of companies say they plan to raise prices, as they predict costs rapidly rising. Household inflation expectations, meanwhile, are at the highest levels in a decade, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, highlighting a core, if inconvenient, macroeconomic truth: Real-world prices shape inflation expectations that wind up determining actual inflation. Here, perception becomes reality.

One feature of the great inflation of the mid-1960s to early 1980s was a buy-in-advance mentality, Yardeni says, where consumers fearing higher prices tomorrow buy today and reinforce pricing pressures. There is some evidence that such a psychology is returning.

Scott Taylor, CEO of Pallet Central Enterprises, with a stack of pallets in Cincinnati in May.

Photograph by Anna Powell Denton

Scott Taylor sells the wood pallets that companies across supply chains use to stack, store, and transport materials and finished goods. As the pandemic boosted online shopping and the housing boom drove lumber prices higher, the price of Taylor’s pallets has increased 60% this year.

“Six months ago, we started to feel the crunch of the demand. Now, it’s overwhelming,” the Indianapolis-based Taylor says. Customers have started renting additional warehouse space for the purpose of hoarding pallets, he says, with some reselling at even higher prices. “I’m watching pallets leave the Chicago market, where one is $7 to $7.50, and being sold to the West Coast for $11 to $12. Customers are looking to get any pallet they can get their hands on,” he says.

Nowhere is price inflation more visible than in housing, the best reflection of the combined forces of ultraeasy monetary policy, generous fiscal policy, supply-chain problems, and changing consumer preferences shaped by Covid-19.

For Mike Procopio’s family-owned real estate development company, lumber prices have reached a tipping point. Lumber yards will no longer guarantee prices, instead pricing and billing upon delivery, as prices—up 300% from a year ago—are moving too fast to predict. But it’s not just the price of wood.

“It’s been a rocket shooting to the moon for the past eight months,” says Procopio, a third-generation CEO of Massachusetts-based Procopio Cos., of prices overall, from lumber and steel to labor. He has canceled a fifth of planned projects and halted a tenth this year as the cost of constructing apartment buildings surged 20%. Returns on projects that haven’t gone bust have been clipped to about 15% from 25%.

“They say it’s temporary and there are supply-chain issues, but there is huge demand,” he says. “It’s a vicious cycle. If it costs me 20% extra to build, rents will have to go up 20%.”

Drawing It DownU.S. companies are reporting low levels ofinventories.Inventories-to-sales ratiosSources: Apollo Global Management; CensusBureau

RetailersWholesalersJan.’12Jan.’14Jan.’16Jan.’18Jan.’201.01.21.41.61.8

Measuring housing inflation isn’t straightforward. People consume shelter, not homes, the logic goes, and so government economists calculate “owner-equivalent rent”—or how much homeowners say they would have to pay in rent—for inflation metrics like the CPI. Given housing’s 40% weighting in the core CPI, it is all the more awkward to watch the shelter component run around 2% as home prices explode month after month.

Even setting aside methodology complaints, there are red flags in the shelter numbers that we do have. Solid, consecutive monthly increases in the CPI’s owner-equivalent rent component have come five months earlier than expected, says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark. She says home prices lead rents and pull up the price of shelter with a lag time of roughly 12 to 18 months; home prices started climbing just over a year ago.

“We’re on the verge of a second-half phenomenon,” says Yardeni, warning of the growing risk that tighter rents and other consumer prices will trigger a wage-price spiral à la the 1970s.

Ask any Wall Street economist when to really worry about inflation and the answer is likely to center on wages. Labor is often a company’s biggest expense, and employers are typically reluctant to raise wages because reversing course isn’t realistic.

There are growing indications of wage inflation, even if official measures aren’t yet sounding alarms. As Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) CEO Christopher Nassetta said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call, “It is very difficult, particularly here in the U.S., to get labor, and it is constraining [the] recovery...because you just can’t get enough people to service the properties.” Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is offering some delivery drivers $1,000 to sign on plus $25 an hour, while FedEx (FDX) and Cardinal Health (CAH) are paying $500 sign-on bonuses, to name a few.

Michael Procopio, CEO of Procopio Companies, photographed at a 146-unit multifamily building currently in the steel framing stage in Massachusetts in May.

Photographs by Tony Luong

For small businesses, hit hardest by the pandemic and responsible for about half of U.S. employment, the pressure is more acute. At Procopio, six positions out of 30 remain open despite signing bonuses of up to $20,000. Plumbers on his jobs are making $170,000 a year, while construction estimators, who until recently earned $100,000, now command $150,000—if he can find one.

“I don’t know where all the unemployed people are,” Procopio says. “It’s almost impossible to hire.”

For Blumkin of Nebraska Furniture Mart, it isn’t any better, and he isn’t looking for skilled labor of the sort that Procopio is. For a while, Blumkin says, displaced hospitality workers were filling spots as business hummed during the lockdown earlier in the pandemic. But as the economy reopened, Blumkin has been left with 200 open spots, about 5% of total staff, to fill. Taylor, the pallet purveyor, has increased wages for warehouse workers three times in four months.

Missing in ActionA record number of businesses say theycan't find workers.NFIB Jobs Report: Percent of smallbusiness owners reporting job openingsthey can't fillSources: Apollo Global Management; NFIB

%Jan. 2010Jan. 2015Jan. 202001020304050

The unhappy scenario in the 1970s, Yardeni says, was that as food and other price shocks passed through to consumers, more pressure came from labor and resulted in a spiral where wages and prices chased each other higher. Granted, that was at a time when labor unions had more power. Still, Yardeni is increasingly concerned about a repeat, assigning a 25% chance of a new wage-price spiral. A year ago, he thought there was zero chance.

There are shock absorbers to potentially help cushion against the impact of such a spiral, economists say. Most notably, productivity has grown better than in past recoveries as companies incorporated new technology and other efficiencies in order to survive during the pandemic.

David Lamb, the owner of two Frutta Bowl restaurants in Alabama, launched a takeout app when lockdowns prohibited sit-down dining. He has more recently taken to shopping three times a week at his local Costco Wholesale (COST) for fresh fruit and other supplies, an efficiency driven by necessity, as they have become harder to come by through his supplier. For others, change is tougher. As Blumkin in Omaha puts it, “There are opportunities to automate. But that is not a short-term fix.”

Alabama Restaurant Owner Hopes to Be Past the Worst of the Pandemic

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Alabama Restaurant Owner Hopes to Be Past the Worst of the Pandemic

Barron’s interviewed Frutta Bowl’s David Lamb in June as part of a series on the pandemic’s impact on small businesses.

Some economists argue that methodology flaws mean inflation is overstated in official gauges and current increases are less worrisome than in the past. In the mid-1990s, Stanford University economics professor Michael Boskin led a commission to evaluate the CPI and recommend ways to correct measurement bias. The Boskin Commission report concluded that inflation was upwardly biased by 1.1 percentage point a year because quality changes such as new car features weren’t accurately captured, new goods weren’t added to the basket in a timely fashion, and substitution bias—shoppers are more inclined to buy chicken when beef prices surge—was underestimated.

Twenty-five years later, Boskin says there is still an upward bias of roughly one percentage point annually, meaning that increases in inflation are coming off a lower-than-appreciated base. It’s unclear, though, whether technical factors matter insofar as most consumers probably don’t back out the cost of new features when buying a new car and adjust their inflation expectations accordingly.

For investors, the most important questions aren’t whether inflation is here, whether it is indeed transitory, and whether the Fed will have to tighten policy more quickly than telegraphed. Perhaps more crucial is whether the Fed actually can raise interest rates to sufficiently quell a price spiral. After all, the Fed was unable to lift rates above 2.5% during the last tightening cycle and had cut rates in several meetings before the pandemic prompted its emergency actions early last year.

Since then, U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government have grown more indebted, a result of an easy-money policy and a constraint in tightening.

Loans worth $2 trillion—a seventh of the U.S. consumer credit market—entered forbearance during the pandemic, allowing more than 60 million borrowers to miss $70 billion on their debt payments by the end of the first quarter of 2021, according to a group of economists led by Stanford’s Susan Cherry. That’s as U.S. corporate debt is at a record $11 trillion—half of annual gross domestic product—and government debt is on pace to reach 127% of GDP this year. Raising rates to tamp down inflation could have an outsize impact on this borrowing binge.

“The Fed says they’ve got the tools to deal with inflation,” says Yardeni. “The only tool I know is to raise rates and cause a credit crunch and recession. It’s not clear they will have the guts to do that.”

That would leave tightening to the bond market, which could come faster and more furiously than if the Fed were at the wheel. “Such a tremendous amount of debt makes the bond vigilantes more powerful than they’ve ever been,” Yardeni says. “They’ve recently taken a siesta,” but “they’re rising from the dead,” he says, referring to sharp runs in Treasury yields earlier this year and subsequent drops in rate-sensitive growth stocks as inflation concerns started to build.

Then again, the Federal Reserve remains a dominant force in the bond market. Economists don’t expect monthly purchases to taper before the end of this year. Asked in April if it was time “to start talking about talking about tapering,” Powell said it wasn’t.

The Fed declined to comment.

It will take time to determine whether current price increases are in fact transitory, though time isn’t on the side of the Fed: The longer even temporary inflation persists, the more likely it is to take hold. For the Fed to be correct, the right combination of supply-side relief—shortages, from chips to labor, need to abate—productivity growth, and cooler demand needs to materialize. The wrong combination would result in anything from inflation to recession to both.

As millions remain out of work and as economic growth remains reliant on extraordinary monetary and fiscal support, the Fed’s concerns about the recovery are well founded. If the Fed is right that the U.S. economy is still weak enough to warrant near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing, while wrong that pricing pressures are temporary, investors are looking at the threat of stagflation. Longer term, some investors and economists warn of a so-called debt jubilee, effectively a default through hyperinflation, and the risk of the U.S. losing its reserve-currency status.

Policy makers are walking a fine line. The costs of not getting it exactly right are high, already affecting bottom lines, wallets, and investment returns, while threatening to unleash economic forces not seen in generations.

Inflation Is Here and Hotter Than It Looks. What It Means For You. | Barron's (barrons.com)

 

[babysdaddy 2721]

What Powell and the rest of our government are participating in is financial repression. An effort to juice inflation and have negative real rates. This was done post ww2 to bring our debt to gdp down from 120% to 30 or so over about 10 years. Currency debasement. Nominal gdp increases, debt is static or increasing slightly, debt to gdp come down.

[XYZ 2154]

In our present case debt is increasing at record pace.

[jimmyjazz 45891]

Quote

Inflation is here, say grocery shoppers, home buyers, manufacturers, and retailers who insist that their dollars are buying less.

I do 90+% of my household's grocery shopping.  I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

I'd like to know where these skyrocketing grocery prices are occurring, because it ain't at HEB in Austin.

[UT_OB1 2217]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I do 90+% of my household's grocery shopping.  I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

I'd like to know where these skyrocketing grocery prices are occurring, because it ain't at HEB in Austin.

Beer.  Even cheap bud light by the case seems to be 2x what it was 10-15 years ago

[gsoda3 3248]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I do 90+% of my household's grocery shopping.  I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

I'd like to know where these skyrocketing grocery prices are occurring, because it ain't at HEB in Austin.

12 months ago 365 whole milk (whole foods) was $3.25, it's $3.77 now.  other things are weird b/c covid and pinched supply lines caused a price spike in almost everything -  beef, pork, eggs (almost up 100% at one point), seafood... but then came back down eventually to almost precovid prices.  there are still some things which spiked (anything in aluminum cans) that haven't come down.  fruits and vegetables haven't come down and probably won't for a while as their price spike isn't covid related. 

 

if you're really interested the bureau of labor statistics has online a chart of CPI with breakdowns by categories. i was looking at it last week, i think they put it out not long before so it's updated.

[jimmyjazz 45891]

35 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

if you're really interested the bureau of labor statistics has online a chart of CPI with breakdowns by categories. i was looking at it last week, i think they put it out not long before so it's updated.

I don't need to see it, I know what I pay.  I literally am not paying even 5% more for groceries than I paid a year ago.  That's a fact.

[gsoda3 3248]

I don't need to see it, I know what I pay.  I literally am not paying even 5% more for groceries than I paid a year ago.  That's a fact.

It's very possible depending on when last year you're basing that off of. But there is an empirical way of measuring that and the BLS releases that information.

[jimmyjazz 45891]

2 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't need to see it, I know what I pay.  I literally am not paying even 5% more for groceries than I paid a year ago.  That's a fact.

It's very possible depending on when last year you're basing that off of. But there is an empirical way of measuring that and the BLS releases that information.

Dude.  I feed 8 people every night, and have done so for well over a decade.  I have an very detailed knowledge of my fucking grocery budget, because I balance it along with multiple cars, insurance, tuition, a mortgage on a very large house, utilities, etc.

I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

And as far as Bud Light goes, maybe UT_OB1 drinks that swill, but unless he paid $10 per case a decade ago, he's full of shit.  I can get a case tomorrow for $20.  After noon.

[jimmyjazz 45891]

Here's a perfect example:  HEB milk has been within a dime either way of $3.38 per gallon for YEARS.  Right now, on their website:

[Upgrayedd 5810]

On 5/14/2021 at 2:50 PM, Mach 1 said:

I'm developing a MF townhouse project in Phoenix and we just threw in the towel on lumber - just too volatile.  Wood framing is now light gauge steel, exterior plywood now cement board, roofin/decks now Densdeck. We'll still have some wood, like shear panels, interior stairs, etc, but looks like we've cut about 90% of the wood. Our GC noted steel framers are little slow right now due to the pull back in office and retail construction, so off we go, hoping we can get within pissing distance of our original budget.

The correlation between the recent softening in lumber prices and the recent number of projects I deal with that has said screw it, re-draw it in light gauge, resubmit to the jurisdiction, and push revenue a quarter to the right is not lost on me.

[gsoda3 3248]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Dude.  I feed 8 people every night, and have done so for well over a decade.  I have an very detailed knowledge of my fucking grocery budget, because I balance it along with multiple cars, insurance, tuition, a mortgage on a very large house, utilities, etc.

[b]I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  [/b]It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

And as far as Bud Light goes, maybe UT_OB1 drinks that swill, but unless he paid $10 per case a decade ago, he's full of shit.  I can get a case tomorrow for $20.  After noon.

that's a weird hill to die on.  annual CPI on groceries averages 2% year on year and it has since the beginning of this millenium. 

 

i did your homework for you.  here's the most recent CPI data. 

 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/DataFiles/50673/CPIforecast.xlsx?v=1503.8

 

 

 

[gsoda3 3248]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Here's a perfect example:  HEB milk has been within a dime either way of $3.38 per gallon for YEARS.  Right now, on their website:

you really don't remember last summer when the price went to $3.89 for a gallon of HEB milk? 

[jimmyjazz 45891]

2 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

you really don't remember last summer when the price went to $3.89 for a gallon of HEB milk? 

No, I don't.  I don't always buy everything there, especially with the pandemic, when curbside pushed me more towards Randalls and Walmart, neither of which charged a fee for same-day curbside service.

If your argument is that $3.38 is more expensive than $3.89, then you're losing the argument.  Seriously, where is the new price inflation if milk is $0.51 less per gallon over the last 9 months?

I think this is a stupid discussion.  Inflation is not rampant . . .  some products (particularly building materials) have shot up.  It's not at all clear that this is the new normal.

[gsoda3 3248]

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

If your argument is that $3.38 is more expensive than $3.89, then you're losing the argument.  Seriously, where is the new price inflation if milk is $0.51 less per gallon over the last 9 months?

 

i'm responding directly to these comments of yours:

 

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

 

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I haven't seen a bit of price inflation.  I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

 

 

 

[gsoda3 3248]

HEB receipts from Nov and Dec of 2010.

[gsoda3 3248]

for comparison's sake.  none of these items are less than or equal to what they cost 11 years ago.  and these trips we didn't buy any beef, seafood, or cokes.  the prices of those have increased even more %wise than the following.

 

HEB mexican cheese:  THEN $1.95, NOW $2.86   46% increase

HEB OJ (52 oz):  THEN $2.50, NOW $2.86        14% increase

HEB OJ (89 oz):  THEN $3.88, NOW $4.82      24% increase

HCF Large Eggs (12 ct):  THEN .94, NOW $1.27    35% increase

HEB Sage Sausage:  THEN $2, NOW $3.39         69% increase

Economax sliced bacon:  THEN $1.78, NOW (cheapest available) $3.08       73% increase

Kiolbassa Chorizo:  THEN $2.98, NOW $3.79         81% increase

Carlo Rossi Burgandy:  THEN $10.30, NOW $11.30       9.7% increase

HCF Whole Milk:  THEN $2.79, NOW $2.97       7.1% increase

 

 

[GRHorn 105]

14 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

HEB receipts from Nov and Dec of 2010.

Are you a time traveler? Who the hell buys a N95 mask at heb in 2010?

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

for comparison's sake.  none of these items are less than or equal to what they cost 11 years ago.  and these trips we didn't buy any beef, seafood, or cokes.  the prices of those have increased even more %wise than the following.

 

HEB mexican cheese:  THEN $1.95, NOW $2.86   46% increase

HEB OJ (52 oz):  THEN $2.50, NOW $2.86        14% increase

HEB OJ (89 oz):  THEN $3.88, NOW $4.82      24% increase

HCF Large Eggs (12 ct):  THEN .94, NOW $1.27    35% increase

HEB Sage Sausage:  THEN $2, NOW $3.39         69% increase

Economax sliced bacon:  THEN $1.78, NOW (cheapest available) $3.08       73% increase

Kiolbassa Chorizo:  THEN $2.98, NOW $3.79         81% increase

Carlo Rossi Burgandy:  THEN $10.30, NOW $11.30       9.7% increase

HCF Whole Milk:  THEN $2.79, NOW $2.97       7.1% increase

 

 

Looks like you need to grocery shopping with JimmyJazz. He must get all the best deals. 

[gsoda3 3248]

Are you a time traveler? Who the hell buys a N95 mask at heb in 2010?

Hah I was laughing at that too. We always have a stock of n95 on hand. I wear masks whenever I woodwork or do things that kick up dust and we had used a few from travelling during swine flu that year so I was probably just replenishing.

[jimmyjazz 45891]

Jesus Christ.  I don't know what it says about you that you have photos of 11-year-old grocery receipts, but let's run with them:

HCF Whole Milk 2010:  $2.78

HCF Whole Milk 2021:  $2.97 (https://www.heb.com/product-detail/hill-country-fare-whole-milk/314124)

 

You got me, 0.6% annual inflation.  It's fucking RAMPANT.

Do I win yet?

Plus, a spot check of your post shows that you suck at math.  Hint:  $2.97 -> $3.78 is not an 81% increase, it's a 27% increase.  I'm not going to check the rest of your numbers.  

[jimmyjazz 45891]

Another hint:  don't buy cheese, eggs, or (usually) meat at HEB, because you can do better at Randalls.  I almost always pay less than $2 for 8 oz of cheese, either sliced or blocked (never by shredded, you cretins), and maybe $1.29 per dozen eggs.  Milk is more hit or miss.  Chicken breasts can usually be had for $1.79/lb.

Don't fuck with me on this, I'm all-Pro.

[gsoda3 3248]

16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Plus, a spot check of your post shows that you suck at math.  Hint:  $2.97 -> $3.78 is not an 81% increase, it's a 27% increase.  I'm not going to check the rest of your numbers.  

my fault, .81 cent increase, not 81% increase.  

 

it's quite amazing how even in the face of actual receipts showing every single item having increased in price since late 2010 you still can't admit you're wrong. but i guess you're all pro.

 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I am not paying any more for groceries now than I did at least 5 years ago.  It's just a fact.  You can argue otherwise, but you would be wrong.

 

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I can buy a gallon of milk cheaper today than most days over the past 10 years.  I can buy chicken breasts, eggs, most produce at similar low prices.

 

 

[Hornlover 8829]

11 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Another hint:  don't buy cheese, eggs, or (usually) meat at HEB, because you can do better at Randalls.  I almost always pay less than $2 for 8 oz of cheese, either sliced or blocked (never by shredded, you cretins), and maybe $1.29 per dozen eggs.  Milk is more hit or miss.  Chicken breasts can usually be had for $1.79/lb.

Don't fuck with me on this, I'm all-Pro.

$1.29 eggs are so shitty. Get yourself a dozen Vital Farms eggs. Then, crack one of your HCF eggs in one bowl, and a Vital Farms into another. Notice one egg is pale yellow and tastes like shit, and one is a deep orangish color and tastes amazing.

Also, I'm not sure how much in extra time, effort, and gas you spend to save $0.30 on a block of cheese, but this sounds like fucking torture to me.

[Bateshorn 9927]

8 hours ago, Hornlover said:

$1.29 eggs are so shitty. Get yourself a dozen Vital Farms eggs. Then, crack one of your HCF eggs in one bowl, and a Vital Farms into another. Notice one egg is pale yellow and tastes like shit, and one is a deep orangish color and tastes amazing.

Also, I'm not sure how much in extra time, effort, and gas you spend to save $0.30 on a block of cheese, but this sounds like fucking torture to me.

Also, unless you are baking and need to standardize ingredients, kick up to Jumbo or Extra large eggs.  You get more egg in your brrefess taco.

[jimmyjazz 45891]

9 hours ago, Hornlover said:

Also, I'm not sure how much in extra time, effort, and gas you spend to save $0.30 on a block of cheese, but this sounds like fucking torture to me.

I live the same distance from HEB as Randalls.  It's literally zero extra time, effort or gas.  It took no effort to crack the code of "dairy and meat today, produce and household goods tomorrow".  Lather, rinse, repeat.  Beyond that, saving (for instance) $1 or more per pound of chicken or beef at 3 pounds per day, etc. adds up fast.

To @gsoda3's point, where HEB is hiding some price inflation on their OJ is not just a mild uptick in price, it's the reduced volume.  OJ cartons have gone from 64 oz to 59 oz over the past few years, and HEB is now at 52 oz.  THAT is inflation, but it seems fairly peculiar to OJ.  A gallon of milk is still a gallon of milk.

This is boring even me.

 

[LABEVO 928]

wow. price increase over 11 years is rampant inflation.

again, supply chain shocks and what someone else said about economy transforming. you will see wage inflation due to large employers like AMZN, etc raising wages. 

definitely asset inflation due to low low interest rates but that has been going on for a decade now 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Economic heterodoxy is progressing using finer and more reliable evidence (thanks to an accumulation of data). The Policy will be based on what the data shows.

The Wealth the Fed protects has been and will continue to be was well served.

The Fed calmed the financial fears of Covid.

Spoiler

 

Economic Data collection was reoriented quickly by the Fed to look at how to dig out of the crater in the world economy (that's kind of their little niche.)

They have a plan. The plan comports data science. 

So - Why the itchy trigger finger to start up austerity? We know how to bleed off inflation.

 

Who wants the markets spooked?  Know whose positions you are repeating.

Opinions are not facts. That is my opinion.

Facts (based on data I have presented). 

There remain deflationary headwinds. The data says systems nominal.

Shouldn't that be comforting? 

 

I am not seeing panic up tippy-top. Crypto clouds data.

Some bond vigilantes making money off of suffering braying to the moon. They were expected to arrive. Isn't that comforting to know?

I am trusting the data, which predicted transitory price increase due to supply bottlenecks. 

______________________

Opinion: Supply bottlenecks can be tactical and used by enemies of the United States. Beware of bond vigilante manipulation (this is their thing - not kink shaming, but they are selling what makes them money. Reliability may be in doubt. 

And always, we are open to exploitation by known enemies of the United States. 

Raising false fear of rising inflation expectations will non-reliable outcomes. Those who oppose the US know this. 

___________________________

 

TLDR: check your sources, always. 

Some smart people on here.

Edited May 17, 2021 by washparkhorn

[GRHorn 105]

14 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Economic heterodoxy is progressing using finer and more reliable evidence (thanks to an accumulation of data). The Policy will be based on what the data shows.

The Wealth the Fed protects has been and will continue to be was well served.

The Fed calmed the financial fears of Covid.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Economic Data collection was reoriented quickly by the Fed to look at how to dig out of the crater in the world economy (that's kind of their little niche.)

They have a plan. The plan comports data science. 

So - Why the itchy trigger finger to start up austerity? We know how to bleed off inflation.

 

Who wants the markets spooked?  Know whose positions you are repeating.

Opinions are not facts. That is my opinion.

Facts (based on data I have presented). 

There remain deflationary headwinds. The data says systems nominal.

Shouldn't that be comforting? 

 

I am not seeing panic up tippy-top. Crypto clouds data.

Some bond vigilantes making money off of suffering braying to the moon. They were expected to arrive. Isn't that comforting to know?

I am trusting the data, which predicted transitory price increase due to supply bottlenecks. 

______________________

Opinion: Supply bottlenecks can be tactical and used by enemies of the United States. Beware of bond vigilante manipulation (this is their thing - not kink shaming, but they are selling what makes them money. Reliability may be in doubt. 

And always, we are open to exploitation by known enemies of the United States. 

Raising false fear of rising inflation expectations will non-reliable outcomes. Those who oppose the US know this. 

___________________________

 

TLDR: check your sources, always. 

Some smart people on here.

You use the same trick as a lot of the media and establishment. You try to create a link between questioning central planning and helping our adversaries. It’s not un-American to question authority. It’s actually quite the opposite. 
 

As far as inflation being transitory, we’ll just have to wait and see.  
 

Not commenting on the political virtue of this, but it was just announced that the new stimmies start in July via direct deposit. 
 

Essentially debt monetization funded UBI, unless taxes are raised. TBD

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

Instead of arguing about HEB milk inflation, here are some detailed food inflation #s from the US govt: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/

Milk is probably a bad indicator for inflation because people have drastically lowered their dairy milk consumption over the last decade. And they face competition from non-dairy milk. The dairy milk industry to trying to get laws passed that non-dairy milk cannot call their products milk. It's never a good sign for any industry when they have to resort to anti-competition laws for salvation.

[Bozo_Casanova 26437]

41 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The dairy milk industry to trying to get laws passed that non-dairy milk cannot call their products milk. It's never a good sign for any industry when they have to resort to anti-competition laws for salvation.

I normally would agree with the sentiment but words mean things. It's not milk unless it comes from the teat of a mammal. 
Nut emulsion isn't milk, although I hear South Austin's mom drinks about a half gallon a day.

[elfenix 34224]

On 5/16/2021 at 10:08 AM, jimmyjazz said:

THAT is inflation, but it seems fairly peculiar to OJ

well, no, if it's just one thing then it's not inflation.

[Hornlover 8829]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Instead of arguing about HEB milk inflation, here are some detailed food inflation #s from the US govt: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/

Milk is probably a bad indicator for inflation because people have drastically lowered their dairy milk consumption over the last decade. And they face competition from non-dairy milk. The dairy milk industry to trying to get laws passed that non-dairy milk cannot call their products milk. It's never a good sign for any industry when they have to resort to anti-competition laws for salvation.

The price of Milk seems to be pretty steady since about 2008. Milk production has steadily increased, which may account for the flat price. But, also milk pricing is heavily regulated and so it might not be a good indicator for inflation.https://www.statista.com/statistics/194937/total-us-milk-production-since-1999/

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/milk-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/

 

[Storm the Field 5294]

Lumber's losing streak hits Day 7. Now down $400 from a week ago.

[Wulaw Horn 19068]

My dad keeps talking about inflation. So do all my right wing friends. I always bet against the grain whenever I start hearing shit like that. I’m betting it’s transitory/no big deal. Maybe I’m wishing it to be so, but I bet I’m correct to not be concerned.

I think there is just too much downward pressure from flattening and bringing more of the world online to see much upward inflationary pressure. I could well be wrong but that’s my call. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My dad keeps talking about inflation. So do all my right wing friends. I always bet against the grain whenever I start hearing shit like that. I’m betting it’s transitory/no big deal. Maybe I’m wishing it to be so, but I bet I’m correct to not be concerned.

I think there is just too much downward pressure from flattening and bringing more of the world online to see much upward inflationary pressure. I could well be wrong but that’s my call. 

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - Updated May 12, 2021:

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0521.pdf (pdf from USDA). https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/documentation/  

[Neonmoon 38129]

9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Lumber's losing streak hits Day 7. Now down $400 from a week ago.

Where should I place my faux outrage?

[workswithseed 2090]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Where should I place my faux outrage?

Next to your faux leather boots.

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

You guys understand that even after a period of transitory inflation, prices don’t go lower from there, right? It just becomes the new normal.