Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 3:26 AM, washparkhorn said:

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - Updated May 12, 2021:

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0521.pdf (pdf from USDA). https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/documentation/  

Expand  

Eh, the USDA has been out to lunch on grain numbers since they overestimated the 2019 crop and tried to bullshit their way through it, grains would be even higher if it was for Covid because wouldn’t of lost a bit of use last spring while we lost acres on excess moisture/lack of incentive in the north. Biggest thing here is the SnapBack on China trade and their hog herd bouncing back from ASF, and the US crop finishing dry on soybeans last year and the derecho fucking up Iowa corn just enough that it exposed the USDA bullshitting just in time for Brazil’s second crop of corn to go dry while Russia restricted exports because they had been bullshitting about wheat stocks too. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 11:04 AM, Royalfan5 said:

Eh, the USDA has been out to lunch on grain numbers since they overestimated the 2019 crop and tried to bullshit their way through it, grains would be even higher if it was for Covid because wouldn’t of lost a bit of use last spring while we lost acres on excess moisture/lack of incentive in the north. Biggest thing here is the SnapBack on China trade and their hog herd bouncing back from ASF, and the US crop finishing dry on soybeans last year and the derecho fucking up Iowa corn just enough that it exposed the USDA bullshitting just in time for Brazil’s second crop of corn to go dry while Russia restricted exports because they had been bullshitting about wheat stocks too. 

Expand  

Good to see you on this thread. I liked your stats during Covid.  

Argentina and what it is doing to its beef exports is concerning. Or is that good for producers here? If you know. 

Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 11:40 AM, washparkhorn said:

Good to see you on this thread. I liked your stats during Covid.  

Argentina and what it is doing to its beef exports is concerning. Or is that good for producers here? If you know. 

Expand  

Beef producers are fucked here because nobody has invested in packing capacity in the last 20 years, and we are struggling to keep current despite huge packer margins and beef demand. There are some expansions in the works but it will take time. At the same time pork producers are in good shape because they actually built their own plants instead of relying on the packers to do it, and once numbers short out from the backing up of a year ago, will be in real good shape. The US beef herd is still shrinking which is going to keep prices elevated longer there, (already there at the retail level, will get there for cattle probably into 2022)

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 3:04 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Um, false. You've bought gasoline before, right? Produce?

Supply/demand is a thing. 

Expand  

supply and demand is a thing but disruptions in gasoline pricing from temporary events causing pinched supply isn't inflation.  neither are cyclical fluctuations.  too many think the runup in prices right now are caused solely by the reopening but that's not true.  i think it's just going to get worse as wages increase.

Posted (edited)
  On 5/19/2021 at 3:35 PM, gsoda3 said:

supply and demand is a thing but disruptions in gasoline pricing from temporary events causing pinched supply isn't inflation.  neither are cyclical fluctuations.  too many think the runup in prices right now are caused solely by the reopening but that's not true.  i think it's just going to get worse as wages increase.

Expand  

"worse as wages increase" is the same statement as "worse as the economy gets healthier and more people enter the market for scarce goods."  Inflation is a monetary phenomenon of currency devaluation, but real dollar prices increasing as aggregate demand grows is the incentive for more production and has a salutary effect on the economy and employment.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 3:47 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

"worse as wages increase" is the same statement as "worse as the economy gets healthier and more people enter the market for scarce goods." 

Expand  

nope. they're different reasons of why prices change.  you're speaking of supply and demand for goods, which is one reason why prices move.  wage increases are another reason prices change.  that loss of buying power is being overlooked.  

Posted (edited)
  On 5/19/2021 at 5:31 PM, gsoda3 said:

nope. they're different reasons of why prices change.  you're speaking of supply and demand for goods, which is one reason why prices move.  wage increases are another reason prices change.  that loss of buying power is being overlooked.  

Expand  

Prices change when the wage base grows because that is an increase in aggregate demand. That's not a loss of buying power but a loss of competitive advantage for those whose wages increased less. 
I'm not saying it doesn't feel similar, I'm saying it's not the same thing. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 5:50 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Prices change when the wage base grows because that is an increase in aggregate demand. That's not a loss of buying power but a loss of competitive advantage for those whose wages increased less. 
I'm not saying it doesn't feel similar, I'm saying it's not the same thing. 

Expand  

i'm not saying a loss in buying power is driving up prices. with that sentence i was speaking to the overall situation of what's happening right now.  

 

wages have been increasing and will undeniably continue to rise.  as wages rise, so does the cost of goods and companies will increase the prices of their goods and services sold.  that's cost-push inflation.  what you're speaking of is demand-pull inflation.  that's why this statement is false.  

  On 5/19/2021 at 3:47 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

"worse as wages increase" is the same statement as "worse as the economy gets healthier and more people enter the market for scarce goods." 

Expand  

 

 

 

Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 7:24 PM, Amos Moses said:
Are wages increasing? I don’t think so … not yet.
Yes. However you measure it (from pre pandemic to post pandemic, from yr on yr, same month yr before), they're increasing.
Posted (edited)
  On 5/19/2021 at 6:58 PM, gsoda3 said:

i'm not saying a loss in buying power is driving up prices. with that sentence i was speaking to the overall situation of what's happening right now.  

 

wages have been increasing and will undeniably continue to rise.  as wages rise, so does the cost of goods and companies will increase the prices of their goods and services sold.  that's cost-push inflation.  what you're speaking of is demand-pull inflation.  that's why this statement is false.  

 

 

 

Expand  

you misspelled "true".

You're defining inflation abstractly as any loss of purchasing power you experience, which is fine, since that's how most people think about it. I don't, but either way we agree that you are experiencing that right now in some small way.

That being said there are four main drivers inflation, which are interrelated:

1) An expansion of the money supply.
2) A decrease in the demand for money
3) Demand-pull inflation - a supply shortfall relative to an increase in aggregate demand in an expanding economy and

4) Cost-Push inflation - a decrease in supply caused by increased costs of production. 

We may well get to a point that #1 is a problem, and we may also get to the point that #3 causes #4. But as of this moment, what you are experiencing as a consumer is almost exclusively #3.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Guess I should have taken macro instead of micro.

If we get a sustained run of inflation I'm double-fucked, as my income is unlikely to ever rise for reasons I can only discuss in CR.

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 11:09 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

You're defining inflation abstractly as any loss of purchasing power you experience, which is fine, since that's how most people think about it. I don't, but either way we agree that you are experiencing that right now in some small way.
 

Expand  

i've been pretty clear inflation has more than one lever.  my contention is with your statement of...

 

  On 5/19/2021 at 3:47 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

"worse as wages increase" is the same statement as "worse as the economy gets healthier and more people enter the market for scarce goods."  Inflation is a monetary phenomenon of currency devaluation, but real dollar prices increasing as aggregate demand grows is the incentive for more production and has a salutary effect on the economy and employment.

Expand  

... which is a gross misunderstanding of the separate functional inputs of cost vs demand.  ironically it's what you accuse me of doing in your latest post where you post the accurate drivers of inflation.  so somewhere in the last 12 hours you've landed on the right track but for some reason are still attributing things to me i've never said. 

Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 11:09 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

That being said there are four main drivers inflation, which are interrelated:

1) An expansion of the money supply.
2) A decrease in the demand for money
3) Demand-pull inflation - a supply shortfall relative to an increase in aggregate demand in an expanding economy and

4) Cost-Push inflation - a decrease in supply caused by increased costs of production. 
 

Expand  

1.)  It's already happened.  This huge bear run we've seen in the market is a purposeful consequence.

3.)  The reopening.  Is the increase in demand short term?  Most think it's transitory.

4.)  People are focusing on #3 and missing this point.  Wages have been increasing even through the pandemic.  Raw material costs have been increasing.  Once cost-push inflation starts it rarely reverses. 

 

  Quote

We may well get to a point that #1 is a problem, [b]and we may also get to the point that #3 causes #4. [/b] But as of this moment, what you are experiencing as a consumer is almost exclusively #3.

Expand  

it's been two decades since i've taken my last macro class so i'm drawing on my professional knowledge which is more micro, but i don't believe #3 can cause #4 and vice versa.  by definition they are different components of the system and only one can be attributed to each case of inflation.  demand-pull deals with demand inputs, cost-push deals with supply inputs.  the closest in identity #3 gets to #4 is when demand overwhelms a system to the point of causing supply shock, but even then the cause of inflation is attributed to demand and it wouldn't be called cost-push.  remember, those terms deal with which input is singularly causing the price change.

Posted
  On 5/20/2021 at 4:57 AM, gsoda3 said:

1.)  It's already happened.  This huge bear run we've seen in the market is a purposeful consequence.

3.)  The reopening.  Is the increase in demand short term?  Most think it's transitory.

4.)  People are focusing on #3 and missing this point.  Wages have been increasing even through the pandemic.  Raw material costs have been increasing.  Once cost-push inflation starts it rarely reverses. 

 

it's been two decades since i've taken my last macro class so i'm drawing on my professional knowledge which is more micro, but i don't believe #3 can cause #4 and vice versa.  by definition they are different components of the system and only one can be attributed to each case of inflation.  demand-pull deals with demand inputs, cost-push deals with supply inputs.  the closest in identity #3 gets to #4 is when demand overwhelms a system to the point of causing supply shock, but even then the cause of inflation is attributed to demand and it wouldn't be called cost-push.  remember, those terms deal with which input is singularly causing the price change.

Expand  

You can have 3 and 4 simultaneously.   We’ve seen it in the lumber/housing markets 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
  On 5/19/2021 at 8:25 PM, elfenix said:

 

Expand  

Log prices have been dirt cheap from what I’ve read. They’ve had more logs than they could process (we were at $20/1000 board ft if log). 
 

if it drops that same amount TWICE more, we’ll be just above where we spent most of 2010 to 2020

Edited by UT_OB1
Posted
  On 5/20/2021 at 1:25 PM, Trey3216 said:

You can have 3 and 4 simultaneously.   We’ve seen it in the lumber/housing markets 

Expand  

it's not uncommon to see both costs and price rise at the same time which is why there's so often a debate on what's driving the rising prices, but i don't remember ever hearing the cause of inflation being attributed to both inputs.  maybe it's different in sector specific instances.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 5/20/2021 at 1:59 PM, UT_OB1 said:

Log prices have been dirt cheap from what I’ve read. They’ve had more logs than they could process (we were at $20/1000 board ft if log). 
 

if it drops that same amount TWICE more, we’ll be just above where we spent most of 2010 to 2020

Expand  

it's really bad math humor, not something to be analyzed. 

Posted

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/20/upshot/inflation-five-questions.html

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Posted (edited)

  

  On 5/21/2021 at 1:25 PM, Hornlover said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/20/upshot/inflation-five-questions.html

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Expand  

 

 

Good summary, thanks.

Edited by jimmyjazz
Posted

more mark blyth on marketplace's make me smart pod:

  Quote

We’ve put it off for a long time, but it’s time to talk about the I-word. Nine letters, three syllables: inflation.

The Federal Reserve likes it around 2%, but it’s been a long time since we’ve gotten there. As this economy inches back on track, consumer prices are going up and the investor class is getting spooked. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jay Powell is keeping interest rates low. So what’s going on?

“We had a huge supply and demand shock called the COVID crisis, and we’re beginning to get out of it,” said Brown University political economist Mark Blyth. “You’ve got quite naturally a lot of what we call bottlenecks, a lot of supply shortages, across different sectors that are all coming out of hibernation at once.”

Expand  

https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart-with-kai-and-molly/whos-scared-of-a-little-inflation/

 

 

Posted (edited)
  On 5/20/2021 at 1:25 PM, Trey3216 said:

You can have 3 and 4 simultaneously.   We’ve seen it in the lumber/housing markets 

Expand  

Bingo

  On 5/20/2021 at 2:04 PM, gsoda3 said:

it's not uncommon to see both costs and price rise at the same time which is why there's so often a debate on what's driving the rising prices, but i don't remember ever hearing the cause of inflation being attributed to both inputs.  maybe it's different in sector specific instances.  

Expand  

Think about it this way - aggregate demand increases -> supply chains don't keep -> Prices rise (demand pull) -> Costs of production rise as competition increases for the higher priced goods ->  Prices rise (cost-push). 
 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 5/21/2021 at 7:04 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Bingo

Think about it this way - aggregate demand increases -> supply chains don't keep -> Prices rise (demand pull) -> Costs of production rise as competition increases for the higher priced goods ->  Prices rise (cost-push). 
 

Expand  

Then factor in Covid mill shutdowns 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 5/28/2021 at 4:21 PM, GRHorn said:

Not a good sign that Krugman suggests changing the metrics we look at

 

Expand  

I dislike Krugman, but some of the comments on his ruminations make Krugman look brilliant. 

The Fed has a dual mandate. Their tools are more effective in combatting inflation rather than deflation.

  • Deflation is game over.
  • Inflation is combatted with austerity, which the Fed will gladly employ when needed to protect the wealth they manage for the world. 

Krugman is struggling to remain relevant in a world he never predicted. 

As to his proposition, the Fed analyzes that data already. Poor messaging by Pauli.

Posted
  On 5/28/2021 at 4:58 PM, washparkhorn said:

I dislike Krugman, but some of the comments on his ruminations make Krugman look brilliant. 

The Fed has a dual mandate. Their tools are more effective in combatting inflation rather than deflation.

  • Deflation is game over.
  • Inflation is combatted with austerity, which the Fed will gladly employ when needed to protect the wealth they manage for the world. 

Krugman is struggling to remain relevant in a world he never predicted. 

As to his proposition, the Fed analyzes that data already. Poor messaging by Pauli.

Expand  

He's not wrong, though. If the normal indicators you use for inflation are Toilet Paper and Hand Sanitizer, and a shortage at the beginning of the pandemic causes their prices to skyrocket, then you may want to diversify what you're watching to judge inflation.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 5/19/2021 at 11:04 AM, Royalfan5 said:

Eh, the USDA has been out to lunch on grain numbers since they overestimated the 2019 crop and tried to bullshit their way through it, grains would be even higher if it was for Covid because wouldn’t of lost a bit of use last spring while we lost acres on excess moisture/lack of incentive in the north. Biggest thing here is the SnapBack on China trade and their hog herd bouncing back from ASF, and the US crop finishing dry on soybeans last year and the derecho fucking up Iowa corn just enough that it exposed the USDA bullshitting just in time for Brazil’s second crop of corn to go dry while Russia restricted exports because they had been bullshitting about wheat stocks too. 

Expand  

eddie murphy sum GIF

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

shit getting serious now. wingstop feeling the pain, gonna try to market thighs

  Quote

"The [wholesale] price of wings a year ago was as low as 98 cents," per pound, Charlie Morrison, Chairman and CEO of Wingstop Restaurants Inc., told CNN Business. "Today, it's at $3.22. So it's a meaningful difference." Thighs, on the other hand, are "much less expensive," he said, coming in at about half of what wings cost per pound today.

Expand  

Wingstop's new digital brand, Thighstop, serves chicken thighs.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/21/business/chicken-thighs-wingstop/index.html

Posted
  On 5/21/2021 at 7:04 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Bingo

Think about it this way - aggregate demand increases -> supply chains don't keep -> Prices rise (demand pull) -> Costs of production rise as competition increases for the higher priced goods ->  Prices rise (cost-push). 
 

Expand  

i didn't see this earlier so i'm a month late to respond. 

 

thanks for the illustration, i get the mechanics. my point was the initial attributed factor is what's labelled as cost-push or demand-pull inflation and anything subsequent is a direct result.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Lumber prices continue to fall. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/business/lumber-price.html

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Posted

So the Fed forecasted it correctly . . . starting this Economic Beast after a pandemic would be sluggish. Spurts and Stalls. We are out of sync, but synchronizing once again.

Now the Fed signals intent to remove some monetary (not fiscal) stabilizers (easy money from the spigot drying up for the big boys).

You are welcome for another bailout. Without the monetary stabilizers, the financial markets would have been destroyed. 

Go build something big boys and girls. That's the next cycle (if we survive the Economic War with China (our creation)).

 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...