2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[washparkhorn 9,939]

59 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

We’ve talked about this before. I don’t want the USD to go down, that’s just what I see happening. It would be foolish of me not to plan accordingly. 
 

 

As I said, a hedge that pays off when there is tension and conflict as enemies attack the USD. 

Inflate or die has been around for a long time. Harken back to 2008-09 crisis and Austrian School of Economic Thought:

Quote

There are still only two choices – inflate or die.

The die part of it would be to allow the bear market to play itself out to the end – to the bitter bearish end. But this would be Great Depression number 2, and the country would surely not stand for it. It might even foment a revolution.

But how about the inflation part? This would require truly a massive amount of Fed money creation. The printing presses would have to go wild. Furthermore, enormous inflation would almost surely wreck the country (remember German inflation after World War I, and the rise of Hitler?) So inflate or die would have serious (more likely disastrous) consequences.

The world is now deflating. And the Fed appears helpless to halt the deflation, no matter what they try.

The antidote for deflation is a devaluation of the currency.

The Fed has failed in its desperate attempts to halt deflation – which is becoming worse as the weeks go by. Americans (voters) are increasingly discouraged and disappointed with both the Fed and Congress.

INFLATE OR DIE. 

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2012/05/richard-russell/you-bear-beware-you-better-take-care/

We are where we are. Pick a side. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by washparkhorn

[Muy Frio 182]

50 Years ago today. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Muy Frio

[XYZ 2,154]

ONE thing that happened in 1971 is the closing of the gold window.

Edit: I see you already posted that on the crypto thread. I didn’t know today was the 50th anniversary.

Edited August 15, 2021 by XYZ

[Muy Frio 182]

On 8/14/2021 at 12:39 AM, washparkhorn said:

 

We are where we are. Pick a side. 

You mean betting for or against the dollar? I’m betting we will continue to trash the dollar and inflate as much as we can in a controlled way. Thus I own stocks, a small amount of real estate, and Bitcoin.
 

I reject the framing that betting against the dollar unpatriotic. That’s probably more of a CR topic though.

You seem to want to make it a for or against the dollar situation. Instead of looking at it as who you are “rooting” for, what do you think is going to happen to the dollar in the future?

 

[Muy Frio 182]

This is nice. Might be part of why the Fed has mentioned climate change. That way they can say they’re concerned about the true cause of increasing prices.  🙄 

 

 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

The Fed needs to recalibrate to account for Delta and the willingly unvaccinated.  

We have lit  rocket fuel and a roiling pandemic heating  up once again.

The Supply chain is a mess. The reliance on Taiwan and their tiny chips is absurd.
 

Next  round of numbers show effects of turning off some of the stabilizers off.

Edited August 16, 2021 by washparkhorn

[jimmyjazz 46,502]

On 8/13/2021 at 5:13 PM, washparkhorn said:

nope.

A nice primer on deflation, wws:

  Reveal hidden contents

When most of us think of inflation, we think of rising prices that strain budgets and take away our buying power. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, inflation skyrocketed as high as 14.8% in the U.S. and interest rates climbed to similar levels. Few living Americans know what it's like to face the opposite phenomenon - deflation.

Since too much inflation is generally regarded as a bad thing, wouldn't it follow that deflation might be good thing? Not necessarily, since much depends on the cause and circumstances of the deflationary cycle and how long it lasts. (Deflation has continued to pop up throughout economic history - but is that such a bad thing? Learn more in The Upside Of Deflation.)

What Is It? Deflation is a general decline in prices as a function of supply and demand for products, and the money used to buy them. Deflation can be caused by a decrease in the demand for products, an increase in the supply of products, excess production capacity, increase in the demand for money, or a decrease in the supply of money or availability of credit.
Decreased demand for products can manifest itself in the form of less personal spending, less investment spending and less government spending. 

While deflation is often associated with an economic recession or depression, it can occur during periods of relative prosperity if the right conditions are present.

If prices are dropping because a product can be produced more efficiently and cheaply in greater quantity, that's viewed as a good thing. An example of this is consumer electronics which are far better and more sophisticated than ever. Yet prices have consistently dropped as the technology improved and spurred more demand.

The effect on prices by fluctuations in the demand for money is usually a function of interest rates. As the demand for money increases during a period of inflation, interest rates rise to compensate for the higher demand and to keep prices from rising further.

Conversely, deflation will result in lower interest rates as the demand for money drops. In that case, the goal is to spur buyer demand to stimulate the economy.

Severe economic contraction during the Great Depression resulted in deflation averaging -10.2% in 1932. 

As the stock market began to crater in late 1929, the supply of money declined along with it as liquidity was drained from the marketplace.

Once the downward spiral had begun, it fed on itself. As people lost their jobs, this reduced the demand for goods, causing further job losses. The decline in prices wasn't enough to spur demand because rising unemployment undercut consumer purchasing power to a far greater degree. The snowball effect didn't stop there, as banks began to fold as loan defaults rose dramatically.
As banks stopped lending money and credit dried up, the money supply contracted and demand tanked. Although the demand for money remained high, no one could afford it because the supply had shrunk. Once this vicious cycle took hold, it lasted a decade until the beginning of World War II.

There are many reasons to be concerned about a prolonged deflationary period, even without an event as devastating as the Great Depression:

1. Demand for goods decreases since consumers delay purchases, expecting lower prices in the future. This compounds itself as prices drop further in response to decreasing demand.

2. Consumers expect to earn less, and will protect assets rather than spend them. Since 70% of the U.S. economy is consumer-driven, this would have a negative effect on GDP.

3. Bank lending drops since borrowing money makes less sense in regards to the real cost. This is because the loan would be paid back with money that is worth more than it is now.

4. Deflation ensures that borrowers which loot to purchase assets lose since an asset becomes worth less in the future than when it was bought.

5. The more indebted you are, the worse your condition since your salary will likely decline while your loan payments remain the same.

6. During inflation, there is no upper limit on interest rates to control the inflation. During deflation, the lower limit is zero. Lenders won't lend for zero percent interest. At rates above zero, lenders make money but borrowers lose and won't borrow as much.

7. Corporate profits usually drop during a deflationary period, which could cause a corresponding decrease in stock prices. This has a ripple effect to consumers who rely on stock appreciation and dividends to supplement their incomes.

8. Unemployment rises and wages decline as demand drops and companies struggle to make a profit. This has a compounding effect throughout the entire economy.

Ever since the Great Depression, there has been a continuing debate on how best to combat recessions and deflation. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke has adopted a policy of "quantitative easing," which essentially amounts to printing money to buy U. S. Treasuries. Following Keynesian economic theory, he is using the money supply to offset the economic contraction that resulted from the financial meltdown in 2008 and the bursting of the housing bubble. How this plays out remains to be seen since these policies are designed to cause inflation.

If the U.S. were to enter a sustained deflationary cycle, your best protection is to hold onto your job and have as little debt as possible. You don't want to be locked in to paying off a loan with money that is increasing in value every day. Save as much money as possible and defer discretionary purchases until prices are lower. Finally, consider selling assets that you don't need while they still have value.

https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0311/the-dangers-of-deflation.aspx

 

It's hilarious that any of us would try to explain why deflation is hard on the poor to a pathologically fact-impervious dipshit, but here we are, and I'm just as guilty.

[Muy Frio 182]

25% bump in monthly food stamps. Fortunately Jimmy informs us there is no inflation in food so this is all just a bonus  

 

[workswithseed 2,141]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's hilarious that any of us would try to explain why deflation is hard on the poor to a pathologically fact-impervious dipshit, but here we are, and I'm just as guilty.

Yes, cause inflation is great for the poor too. Hope people keep buying our debt.

Edited August 17, 2021 by workswithseed

[washparkhorn 9,939]

On 8/16/2021 at 8:21 PM, workswithseed said:

Yes, cause inflation is great for the poor too. Hope people keep buying our debt.

The poor suffer more every fucking day than those who are not poor. 

_____________________________________________________

Our Debt is repaid with USD dollars. We own a printing press. The USD is the preferred reserve currency, because of our ability to defend it and our interests. We don't default on debt payments and haven't since FDR did it in 1933. 

Warren Buffett: "The country is going to grow in terms of its debt-paying capacity,” he said. “But the trick is to keep borrowing in your own currency.”

Read this https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-explains-the-simple-reason-why-the-us-will-never-default-on-its-debt-185105213.html

 

[workswithseed 2,141]

37 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The poor suffer more every fucking day than those who are not poor. 

_____________________________________________________

Our Debt is repaid with USD dollars. We own a printing press. The USD is the preferred reserve currency, because of our ability to defend it and our interests. We don't default on debt payments and haven't since FDR did it in 1933. 

Warren Buffett: "The country is going to grow in terms of its debt-paying capacity,” he said. “But the trick is to keep borrowing in your own currency.”

Read this https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-explains-the-simple-reason-why-the-us-will-never-default-on-its-debt-185105213.html

 

Y'all own a printing press? The FBI would like to know you're location.

Hopefully we can keep paying our debt with our money forever without harm, but I don't think Keynesian philosophy was ever good.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

Y'all own a printing press? The FBI would like to know you're location.

20th St. and Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20551.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

The majority of US debt is owned by the public (US Banks and Investors, only 1/3 by foreign entities). People will keep buying the debt because it’s the safest investment on the world. Because as previously mentioned, the US never defaults. Also because the US is the richest nation in the world, and if it needed more money, it could easily just raise taxes.

in other news, 

Step 2 - taper coming 

 

[Muy Frio 182]

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The majority of US debt is owned by the public (US Banks and Investors, only 1/3 by foreign entities). People will keep buying the debt because it’s the safest investment on the world. Because as previously mentioned, the US never defaults. Also because the US is the richest nation in the world, and if it needed more money, it could easily just raise taxes.

in other news, 

Step 2 - taper coming 

 

This sounds fun. We should bet on this. I say no taper before the end of the year. Interested? How much? 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 hour ago, Muy Frio said:

This sounds fun. We should bet on this. I say no taper before the end of the year. Interested? How much? 

With Delta and the willingly unvaccinated, we will need a fiscal booster jab to keep this economy aloft.

I agree with your opinion. Why slow it down when there is deacceleration. 

[elfenix 34,387]

On 8/14/2021 at 12:39 AM, washparkhorn said:

Austrian School of Economic Thought

fuck praxxers.

[Muy Frio 182]

18 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The majority of US debt is owned by the public (US Banks and Investors, only 1/3 by foreign entities). People will keep buying the debt because it’s the safest investment on the world. Because as previously mentioned, the US never defaults. Also because the US is the richest nation in the world, and if it needed more money, it could easily just raise taxes.

in other news, 

Step 2 - taper coming 

 

 

14 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

This sounds fun. We should bet on this. I say no taper before the end of the year. Interested? How much? 

I guess it’s a no on this bet?

[Neonmoon 38,130]

6 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

 

I guess it’s a no on this bet?

That would be correct. 

[Wally Fairway 5,609]

The FED is facing an interesting dilemma, unemployment continues to linger higher than targeted, covid is re-emerging, and inflation is also growing ( so maybe slowing)

Firing some shock to the system, I don't think they crank up the money printing machine before year end, nor do I think they will be inclined to taper in any significant fashion

 

[tbone_ 14,296]

I too am skeptical of tapering

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Announcing they might taper might cause enough pullback they are looking for without actually tapering 

[Muy Frio 182]

 

[Parliament 14,395]

Crafty

 

 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Shiiiiiiit. They’ve been using those tricks for 50 years. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,285]

On 8/18/2021 at 5:53 PM, Neonmoon said:

Also because the US is the richest nation in the world, and if it needed more money, it could easily just raise taxes.

This is hilarious. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,688]

On 8/18/2021 at 2:55 PM, washparkhorn said:

The poor suffer more every fucking day than those who are not poor. 

_____________________________________________________

Our Debt is repaid with USD dollars. We own a printing press. The USD is the preferred reserve currency, because of our ability to defend it and our interests. We don't default on debt payments and haven't since FDR did it in 1933. 

Warren Buffett: "The country is going to grow in terms of its debt-paying capacity,” he said. “But the trick is to keep borrowing in your own currency.”

Read this https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-explains-the-simple-reason-why-the-us-will-never-default-on-its-debt-185105213.html

 

Bozo Casanova has been saying that on these boards for two decades, particularly in reference to why the PIIGS crisis couldn't happen in the US. 

On 8/18/2021 at 3:37 PM, workswithseed said:

Y'all own a printing press? The FBI would like to know you're location.

Hopefully we can keep paying our debt with our money forever without harm, but I don't think Keynesian philosophy was ever good.

A good start to developing an opinion would be knowing what "Keynesian philosophy" is.

[workswithseed 2,141]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Bozo Casanova has been saying that on these boards for two decades, particularly in reference to why the PIIGS crisis couldn't happen in the US. 

A good start to developing an opinion would be knowing what "Keynesian philosophy" is.

That's why Hayek should have won over. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,688]

1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

That's why Hayek should have won over. 

Won over what?

[workswithseed 2,141]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Won over what?

The economic philosophy of the country. This is us to a t. I'd rather go with a Chicago style of Economics than this. 

According to Keynes economic theory, higher government expenditure and low taxation result in increased demand for goods and services. This, in turn, can help the country achieve optimal economic performance, and help any economic recession. Keynesian economics harbors the thought that government intervention is essential for the economy to succeed, and it believes that the economic activity is influenced heavily by the decisions made by both the private and the public sector. Keynesian economics places government spending to be the most important in stimulating economic activity; so much so that, even if there was no public spending on goods and services or business investments, the theory states that government spending should be able to spur economic growth.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,688]

41 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

The economic philosophy of the country. This is us to a t. I'd rather go with a Chicago style of Economics than this. 

According to Keynes economic theory, higher government expenditure and low taxation result in increased demand for goods and services. This, in turn, can help the country achieve optimal economic performance, and help any economic recession. Keynesian economics harbors the thought that government intervention is essential for the economy to succeed, and it believes that the economic activity is influenced heavily by the decisions made by both the private and the public sector. Keynesian economics places government spending to be the most important in stimulating economic activity; so much so that, even if there was no public spending on goods and services or business investments, the theory states that government spending should be able to spur economic growth.

Eh, Don't get me wrong, and I'm not a Keynesian (or a monetarist, for that matter), but that's quite a misread.  The gist of Keynesianism in this context is that fiscal stimulus stimulates and is sometimes necessary or at least the optimal policy solution to catalyze the resumption of activity. That does not imply that economies should be perpetually stimulated with deficit spending or that only government spending can catalyze the resumption of growth. 

Edited August 24, 2021 by Bozo_Casanova

[Muy Frio 182]

 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,980]

I agree that we are seeing some transitory inflation, but much of it won't be transitory unless everything comes crashing down and we go into a recession. For example, look at the housing/real estate industry. House prices were crazy high six months ago, and they are still high today (not talking about places like Austin, but prices nationwide and in general). Of course there are a lot of factors that go into those prices, but let's look at just building supplies and labor costs. Lumber was a huge driver in new construction costs. That cost has been somewhat proven to be transitory. I assume there were supply chain issues driven by the coronavirus as well as labor issues at the mills driven by the same. Couple that with demand rising due to factors relating to the pandemic and the price skyrocketed. As some of the issues have smoothed out, prices have gone down however, that transitory inflation has had an effect on labor costs. If housing prices, which are probably the biggest item in the labor's budget, increase enough the price of labor has to increase as well. It's pretty hard to backpedal on what you are paying for labor, so some of that gets baked in and that inflation is not transitory unless the economy craters. The same basic forces affect the construction trades. As housing prices increase and demand stays high for new construction, skilled labor gets more expensive because skilled workers have to have housing as well. 

My worry is that prices have risen too fast too quickly to be sustainable accross the country. You can't walk back the cost of labor during a housing boom, but the average person working in unrelated industries isn't exactly getting a significant raise. This means that the cost of housing will eat up a greater and greater share of their income until the bubble pops. Hopefully we can keep that from happening.

[Reagan1k 3,026]

2 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I agree that we are seeing some transitory inflation, but much of it won't be transitory unless everything comes crashing down and we go into a recession. For example, look at the housing/real estate industry. House prices were crazy high six months ago, and they are still high today (not talking about places like Austin, but prices nationwide and in general). Of course there are a lot of factors that go into those prices, but let's look at just building supplies and labor costs. Lumber was a huge driver in new construction costs. That cost has been somewhat proven to be transitory. I assume there were supply chain issues driven by the coronavirus as well as labor issues at the mills driven by the same. Couple that with demand rising due to factors relating to the pandemic and the price skyrocketed. As some of the issues have smoothed out, prices have gone down however, that transitory inflation has had an effect on labor costs. If housing prices, which are probably the biggest item in the labor's budget, increase enough the price of labor has to increase as well. It's pretty hard to backpedal on what you are paying for labor, so some of that gets baked in and that inflation is not transitory unless the economy craters. The same basic forces affect the construction trades. As housing prices increase and demand stays high for new construction, skilled labor gets more expensive because skilled workers have to have housing as well. 

My worry is that prices have risen too fast too quickly to be sustainable accross the country. You can't walk back the cost of labor during a housing boom, but the average person working in unrelated industries isn't exactly getting a significant raise. This means that the cost of housing will eat up a greater and greater share of their income until the bubble pops. Hopefully we can keep that from happening.

I agree with this.  It's damn hard to adjust labor prices as long as demand is somewhat steady....impossible if demand is growing.  It takes something on the lines of a shock to the system in order for employment to fall enough that workers accept lowering of wages.

What doesn't ever appear to be transitory is the cost of certain items that are increased due to input costs, but never adjust when the input costs fall.  There are a lot of segments in the economy where a 2-5% annual increase is baked into pricing, usually on 1/1/XX.  Those occured this year, and were then quickly followed with rapid off-schedule price increases...often multiple times already.  Those manufacturers aren't going to be eager to reduce prices unless they are forced to by a demand shock.

A lot of this is too sticky to be transitory.  Some will be transitory, but once the toothpaste is out of the tube, many sectors of the economy never get it pushed back in.

And, as mentioned quite well above, transitory inflation can evolve and become non-transitory.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

 

[gsoda3 3,311]

37 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

As housing prices increase and demand stays high for new construction, skilled labor gets more expensive because skilled workers have to have housing as well. 

 

That happens if there aren't new entrants to the labor supply.  I was talking to a friend last night about this.  One of the businesses he owns is a GC company and he's saying there have been a lot of people from other industries trying to make their way into construction.  Specific to Austin?  i don't know.  But it makes sense as we see the nationwide shortage of retail labor.

 

[elfenix 34,387]

I agree that we are seeing some transitory inflation, but much of it won't be transitory unless everything comes crashing down and we go into a recession. For example, look at the housing/real estate industry. House prices were crazy high six months ago, and they are still high today (not talking about places like Austin, but prices nationwide and in general). Of course there are a lot of factors that go into those prices, but let's look at just building supplies and labor costs. Lumber was a huge driver in new construction costs. That cost has been somewhat proven to be transitory. I assume there were supply chain issues driven by the coronavirus as well as labor issues at the mills driven by the same. Couple that with demand rising due to factors relating to the pandemic and the price skyrocketed. As some of the issues have smoothed out, prices have gone down however, that transitory inflation has had an effect on labor costs. If housing prices, which are probably the biggest item in the labor's budget, increase enough the price of labor has to increase as well. It's pretty hard to backpedal on what you are paying for labor, so some of that gets baked in and that inflation is not transitory unless the economy craters. The same basic forces affect the construction trades. As housing prices increase and demand stays high for new construction, skilled labor gets more expensive because skilled workers have to have housing as well. 
My worry is that prices have risen too fast too quickly to be sustainable accross the country. You can't walk back the cost of labor during a housing boom, but the average person working in unrelated industries isn't exactly getting a significant raise. This means that the cost of housing will eat up a greater and greater share of their income until the bubble pops. Hopefully we can keep that from happening.

Transitory, or transient, refers to a non ongoing spike in the rate of price change in the economy. It does not and never has meant that the prices are going to overall fall when the transient inflation event ends.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,980]

I'm not arguing with you, but that's an odd and potentially dishonest way to define something. Transitory by definition means something that isn't permanent. For the record, that is what I meant when I said transitory, and that is probably what the majority of americans who understand what the word means think when they hear that word. I guess you could say there is a transitory inflationary event, but to me that means something different than saying what we are seeing is transitory.

Edited August 27, 2021 by NotActuallyALonghorn

[jimmyjazz 46,502]

Seems to me it depends on how people interpret the phrase "transitory inflation".  Are we talking about a price spike that levels off, or are we talking about a price spike that reverses?  To me, the former fits the phrase, and the latter is more of a transitory inflation/deflation cycle.

[Paper_jam 838]

Give it to me straight, I'm a public employee that will probably retire soon on a modest five-figure pension. My plan for retirement was to buy a Frank Lloyd Wright-style house on a scenic beach, maybe in Carmel, Pebble Beach, or Oahu, but now I'm starting to wonder if I'll be able to afford that. Should I instead be hoarding mass quantities of instant ramen and Alpo?

[washparkhorn 9,939]

6 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

Give it to me straight, I'm a public employee that will probably retire soon on a modest five-figure pension. My plan for retirement was to buy a Frank Lloyd Wright-style house on a scenic beach, maybe in Carmel, Pebble Beach, or Oahu, but now I'm starting to wonder if I'll be able to afford that. Should I instead be hoarding mass quantities of instant ramen and Alpo?

I hear Tijuana is nice this time of the year. 

[Satoshi 129]

Tapering into a slowing economy? 

https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf

 

 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

 

3rd quarter not looking as robust for GDP as once thought according, to Morgan Stanley this morning.

4th quarter is expected to be better. 

I believe there will be a small taper beginning this year end (or early 2022) if, for nothing else, to provide a small test of the economy with less Fed support. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Lumber up again but big miss on employment. 

Supply chains continuing to struggle. 

More money flowed into TIPS (inflation hedge) and SPY. 

 

[gsoda3 3,311]

On 8/27/2021 at 4:11 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Seems to me it depends on how people interpret the phrase "transitory inflation".  Are we talking about a price spike that levels off, or are we talking about a price spike that reverses?  To me, the former fits the phrase, and the latter is more of a transitory inflation/deflation cycle.

the economic definition of transitory inflation is unsustained inflation above 2%.  inflation is (should be) always occurring right around 2%.  it's constant.  it's hard for main street to grasp this concept because in their minds the prices they use as reference (gasoline, cars, homes, meals, grocery items) fluctuate.  but inflation is measured using a broad number of items so perception sometimes belies reality, which makes it hard to reconcile the economic definition vs what they think it means.

[jimmyjazz 46,502]

4 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

the economic definition of transitory inflation is unsustained inflation above 2%.  

OK, so (for instance) a brief period of say 4% inflation that settles back down to a nominal 2% number?

[gsoda3 3,311]

OK, so (for instance) a brief period of say 4% inflation that settles back down to a nominal 2% number?

That's right.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

OK, so (for instance) a brief period of say 4% inflation that settles back down to a nominal 2% number?

Yes - essentially. 2% inflation is the Fed's goal for inflation. We are seeing supply chain issues continuing (deflationary) and COVID continuing to disrupt (deflationary). 

The jobs number today included more than 5 million who were unable to work because of COVID (according to an Apollo rep). That was surprising to me. That is deflationary as well, but should be temporary (if we can get our shit together on COVID). 

[tbone_ 14,296]

How are supply chain issues deflationary?

[washparkhorn 9,939]

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

How are supply chain issues deflationary?

Slows growth (disinflationary drag).

Example - how does one grow a business dependent on semiconductors when semiconductors are not flowing from Taiwan (the world's major supplier)?

[elfenix 34,387]

the virus is still in control of the economy.