2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[jimmyjazz 45970]

Some of those numbers are nuts, though.  Coffee hasn't doubled, not close.  Maybe 25%?

Not that 25% is anything to ignore, it's a huge jump in a short period of time.

I don't buy a lot of that stuff so I have no reference point.  Gas seems right, for instance.  Feels like Austin gas has gone from $2 to $3 in a year.  (OK, a bigger jump if you count the short term price crash last February, but that was wholly external.)

[ChickenSandwich 9843]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Some of those numbers are nuts, though.  Coffee hasn't doubled, not close.  Maybe 25%?

Not that 25% is anything to ignore, it's a huge jump in a short period of time.

I don't buy a lot of that stuff so I have no reference point.  Gas seems right, for instance.  Feels like Austin gas has gone from $2 to $3 in a year.  (OK, a bigger jump if you count the short term price crash last February, but that was wholly external.)

Checked my regular order of 365 Coffee on Amazon. Up 100% from $9-$18

Edited January 13, 2022 by ChickenSandwich

[jimmyjazz 45970]

1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Checked my regular order of 365 Coffee on Amazon. Up 100% from $9-$18

Wow, that's huge.  I usually get Ruta Maya at HEB, and it's gone from ~ $15 to ~$19.  I just picked up a bag from World Market @ $9.99 for 24 oz, which is the same price it's been for years.  Not the greatest coffee, but drinkable.  Honestly, it feels like the quality has slipped a bit, so in effect that's a price hike.

[ChickenSandwich 9843]

Yeah, got some HEB this morning and the price seems the same as it has been aprx $7

[Parliament 14260]

Makes that brodozer hard to justify.

[Incredulity 11675]

Everyone relax JJ can get milk for 165% vs a year ago.

 

all is well!!!!

[bernorange 8362]

9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Some of those numbers are nuts, though.  Coffee hasn't doubled, not close. 

I'm guessing he's reporting on commodity prices and not retail.

 

[jimmyjazz 45970]

11 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Everyone relax JJ can get milk for 165% vs a year ago.

 

all is well!!!!

Rent.  Free.  In.  Your.  Head.

[Incredulity 11675]

Shouldn’t you be cracking a bigoted gay joke or something?

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

They brought back Supermarket Sweep. I feel like that’s a big opportunity for Jimmy that’s for the taking. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19196]

On 1/12/2022 at 9:52 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

God damn deflationary headwinds again.

[UT_OB1 2224]

Should I be buying the silver and gold dip?

[workswithseed 2112]

10 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Should I be buying the silver and gold dip?

@RDCanecutter 

[RDCanecutter 26447]

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Should I be buying the silver and gold dip?

Me personally I don't see a real dip*, if you feel like taking financial advice from a wandering madman.

That said, I usually buy a little most months, mainly to keep from drinking up my spare cash. It's a hobby purchase. I would never cash in the boring grown-up investments to buy metal.

*By real dip I mean like about 5 years ago, when gold was bopping along at 1200 or so and dealers were awash in it, even selling coins at melt or close to it. Silver was close to 15 for a lot of that time, and easy to get.

Edited January 18, 2022 by RDCanecutter
Engrish hard.

[UT_OB1 2224]

If you can’t trust investment advice from a madman stranger on the internet, who can you trust?

 

I know shit about silver/gold. So why doesn’t it go up with inflation?  Or is it specific to our current Covid upset?  Would you expect to see it grow if everything comes crashing back down, or is it just a “safe” place to convert your money when because it won’t move much when things crash?  Or should it crash hard too?

[bernorange 8362]

A while back I spotted two news headlines regarding gold in 2021:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-01-04/This-ETF-sees-one-of-the-largest-outflows-in-2021-as-investors-lose-interest-in-gold.html

and

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-01-04/U-S-Mint-sees-strongest-gold-coin-sales-in-12-years-sells-1-25-million-ounces-in-2021.html

[RDCanecutter 26447]

19 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

I know shit about silver/gold. So why doesn’t it go up with inflation?  Or is it specific to our current Covid upset?  Would you expect to see it grow if everything comes crashing back down, or is it just a “safe” place to convert your money when because it won’t move much when things crash?  Or should it crash hard too?

Ironically-- since I just bought some silver today-- I would not encourage anybody to get into buying silver or gold. There are just too many flim-flams, scams, bait-and-switches, fads, cheats, outright thievery, as well as even more self-inflicted damage from honest yet bad decisions.

All the above is probably why I like it, because I enjoy hanging out in bars in the Mos Eisley spaceport. But truth is, that unlike Turks or Mexicans, we live in a place that on its worst day has more law and order, safe investments, relatively stable currency, all sorts of things that make metal an afterthought.

I treat it like a shiny savings account. I don't expect it to double or triple my money. I don't chase price dips, I just chug along. On the plus side, long run it holds up OK-- I took the historical prices from about 1973 to now, and if you bought an ounce each year at the highest price for that year, held it for 5 years, then sold it at the lowest price of that later time, and did this year after year, even with inflation you'd have about the same amount of money.

Of course, you would never have bought any Apple stock, or Enron either.

Precious Metals attract a sort of Jim Jones Light subset who are somewhat entertaining. I doubt most of them really think the world will end, and I suspect most of them don't have enough metal laid up to haggle with Mad Max if it does.

If you still have the slightest interest in metals after all my rambling, I'd say read a ton of books about actual coins or other things that interest you, and also google things like precious metal scams, especially guys like Hannes Tulving (there were dozens of guys like him) who cleaned out retirees of their savings for "valuable" coins or just plain never delivered sold product.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

20 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

If you can’t trust investment advice from a madman stranger on the internet, who can you trust?

 

I know shit about silver/gold. So why doesn’t it go up with inflation?  Or is it specific to our current Covid upset?  Would you expect to see it grow if everything comes crashing back down, or is it just a “safe” place to convert your money when because it won’t move much when things crash?  Or should it crash hard too?

The most obvious and probably correct answer is that bitcoin/crypto is stealing some or all of gold’s value as an inflation hedge. Doesn’t mean it won’t have its day, but I’m not sure how else to interpret the highest inflation in 40 years and gold being flat/down over the last year. I’d like to hear other potential explanations though. For sure gold price is easier to keep down due to all the paper markets out there. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

17 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

There are just too many flim-flams, scams, bait-and-switches, fads, cheats, outright thievery, as well as even more self-inflicted damage from honest yet bad decisions.

A bit long for a motto, but it fits.

[RDCanecutter 26447]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

A bit long for a motto, but it fits.

On second thought, I'd put an extra word between Flim-Flam and Scam, to help with the flow.

On third thought, the best analogy I could think of for getting into precious metals is that it'd be kind of like getting into buying and selling used cars, with a similar proportion of honesty and possible predation, as well as a sub-group who are convinced that when society falls, all that will save anyone will be prior ownership in a 72 Chevy Nova.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

5 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

all that will save anyone will be prior ownership in a 72 Chevy Nova.

I owned a 1970 Nova in high school. It didn't save me, but it was great for transporting beer. You could put several kegs in the trunk.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

On 1/17/2022 at 7:42 PM, UT_OB1 said:

If you can’t trust investment advice from a madman stranger on the internet, who can you trust?

 

I know shit about silver/gold. So why doesn’t it go up with inflation?  Or is it specific to our current Covid upset?  Would you expect to see it grow if everything comes crashing back down, or is it just a “safe” place to convert your money when because it won’t move much when things crash?  Or should it crash hard too?

Will it happen? 

 

[RDCanecutter 26447]

7 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I owned a 1970 Nova in high school. It didn't save me, but it was great for transporting beer. You could put several kegs in the trunk.

First car I learned to wreck was a Nova of that era. My mom demanded full repair from the insurance company (amazingly I escaped blame because another teen had driven worse than I did) because she sensed, wolf-like, that all the newer cars available were inferior to a repaired Chevy Nova.

[RDCanecutter 26447]

33 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Will it happen? 

 

My opinion: We have been living on the moon since 2008, we are lunar creatures, even what we think of as recent "lows" are historical highs in any other time.

Only 20 years ago gold was banging along forever in the 300/400 range, that'd be like what, 450/600 with inflation now? it'd still be about 1/4 or 1/3 today's price. Similar story with silver-- long stretches of low dead prices. If you want to weep, look up coin sites on Wayback Machine and see how many handfuls you could have scooped up for peanuts, but no, RD had to go buy extra pitchers of beer.

[XYZ 2154]

22 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

The most obvious and probably correct answer is that bitcoin/crypto is stealing some or all of gold’s value as an inflation hedge. Doesn’t mean it won’t have its day, but I’m not sure how else to interpret the highest inflation in 40 years and gold being flat/down over the last year. I’d like to hear other potential explanations though. For sure gold price is easier to keep down due to all the paper markets out there. 

Couple of thoughts:

1) there’s a perfectly reasonable explanation for why gold is NOT a good inflation hedge. I don’t know it, but I know it’s out there. It has to do with bullion banking and paper gold.

2) ask yourself this: what’s underground in Ft. Knox laying very still until the day that it’s needed: cryptocurrencies, or cold, hard gold?

[Guest]

On 1/13/2022 at 2:04 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Some of those numbers are nuts, though.  Coffee hasn't doubled, not close.  Maybe 25%?

Not that 25% is anything to ignore, it's a huge jump in a short period of time.

I don't buy a lot of that stuff so I have no reference point.  Gas seems right, for instance.  Feels like Austin gas has gone from $2 to $3 in a year.  (OK, a bigger jump if you count the short term price crash last February, but that was wholly external.)

On what planet are you paying $3/gal?

[jimmyjazz 45970]

6 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

On what planet are you paying $3/gal?

Planet Austin, TX?  Today's pricing (regular grade) covering most of the city:

 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Planet Austin, TX?  Today's pricing (regular grade) covering most of the city:

 

Huh. That’s exceedingly cheap. Really cheap in the areas you’ll get shot, and even cheap in nicer areas. Considerably cheaper than Dallas. Anecdotally of course. I’m not sure when the last time I paid below $3. I paid $111 on Saturday. 

[jimmyjazz 45970]

52 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

Huh. That’s exceedingly cheap. Really cheap in the areas you’ll get shot, and even cheap in nicer areas. Considerably cheaper than Dallas. Anecdotally of course. I’m not sure when the last time I paid below $3. I paid $111 on Saturday. 

It's not really germane to the point I was making -- I was talking about Austin gas prices, not national.  $2 to $3 is a significant, although historically common pop.  If it was $2.30 to $3.50 in Dallas, well, OK.  I was just making an anecdotal point about the % change I experienced.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not really germane to the point I was making -- I was talking about Austin gas prices, not national.  $2 to $3 is a significant, although historically common pop.  If it was $2.30 to $3.50 in Dallas, well, OK.  I was just making an anecdotal point about the % change I experienced.

I know the point you were making. If you follow the price of crude, the move in gasoline is completely logical. The issue is exacerbated by the fact that it never should have been sub $2 at all, but people will remember that. 

[jimmyjazz 45970]

25 minutes ago, Porterhouse said:

I know the point you were making. If you follow the price of crude, the move in gasoline is completely logical. The issue is exacerbated by the fact that it never should have been sub $2 at all, but people will remember that. 

Definitely the price crater when Russia and Saudi tried to no lube each other in spring 2020, along with the brand new shiny pandemic, was an external oddity.  I don't even consider that, price recovered within a year and is now 50% higher than that pre-crash level.  (Gas, not crude, I don't pay attention to crude, but I assume it's similar.)

[Guest]

5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Definitely the price crater when Russia and Saudi tried to no lube each other in spring 2020, along with the brand new shiny pandemic, was an external oddity.  I don't even consider that, price recovered within a year and is now 50% higher than that pre-crash level.  (Gas, not crude, I don't pay attention to crude, but I assume it's similar.)

I know you’re quoting general timelines but be more specific. Crude price is about 50% higher than pre pandemic levels - after it’d fully recovered. There is a strong correlation between the two as obviously gasoline is a crude derivative. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Porterhouse

[jimmyjazz 45970]

1 hour ago, Porterhouse said:

I know you’re quoting general timelines but be more specific. Crude price is about 50% higher than pre pandemic levels - after it’d fully recovered. There is a strong correlation between the two as obviously gasoline is a crude derivative. 

Didn't I say exactly that?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Didn't I say exactly that?

Not that I saw, no. 

[XYZ 2154]

Stop bickering.

[Guest]

I’m not bickering. 

[Incredulity 11675]

The fucking around is pretty much over

 

 

[Parliament 14260]

The 2022 Chip Riots are about to begin.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

12 hours ago, Parliament said:

The 2022 Chip Riots are about to begin.

Grandpa, how did World War 3 start?

Well son, let me tell you about the chips. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19196]

I’m sure it’s totally legit and the restaurant isn’t using it as an excuse to increase revenues. 

Oh, you want salsa with them chips?  That will be another $3.50 because supply chain and shit.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Fudge Nuggets

[phdhorn 6224]

Just about a year ago, my Little Debbie Brownies were $1.49 for a six pack.

Now they're freaking $2.65.

We are done as a country.

[Parliament 14260]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I’m sure it’s totally legit and the restaurant isn’t using it as an excuse to increase revenues. 

Oh, you want salsa with them chips?  That will be another $3.50 because supply chain and shit.

Well look at you!  Figuring things out.

[RDCanecutter 26447]

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Just about a year ago, my Little Debbie Brownies were $1.49 for a six pack.

Now they're freaking $2.65.

We are done as a country.

Counterpoint: with so few employees, there's nobody to stop you if you grab a box and run out into the parking lot.

[jimmyjazz 45970]

5 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Just about a year ago, my Little Debbie Brownies were $1.49 for a six pack.

Now they're freaking $2.65.

We are done as a country.

They're probably Littler Debbies, too.

[Trey3216 15347]

19 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Counterpoint: with so few employees, there's nobody to stop you if you grab a box and run out into the parking lot.

Or just go to San Fran where they have to let you stroll out of the store unimpeded.  

[RDCanecutter 26447]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Or just go to San Fran where they have to let you stroll out of the store unimpeded.  

In San Francisco they don't feel things the way we do.

[phdhorn 6224]

36 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Or just go to San Fran where they have to let you stroll out of the store unimpeded.  

Also probably a whole lot of 'em for free at the L.A. Rail System Flea Market and Thrift Shop - if I can beat the rush.

[workswithseed 2112]

Second time within a year that they raised prices by a dollar. The $7 chicken teriyaki is now up to $9.

[UTGrad98 2280]

Ordered 2 sandwiches 2 cups of soup and 2 drinks from pot belly last week. Paid over 40 dollars. Haven't eaten out since. I have been wanting to save money for years by eating at home for lunch with my work. Started that last week. We are saving a ton. All it took was a 40 dollar fast food bill.

[Guest]

On 1/22/2022 at 5:51 PM, Incredulity said:

The fucking around is pretty much over

 

 

Idiots.  Just tattoo “I’m in Financial Trouble” on your forehead. This will ensure this place goes down.